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America’s retreat is increasing China’s control of global EV markets

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America’s retreat is increasing China's control of global EV markets

A large number of new energy vehicles for export park at a car terminal on the Hangzhou section of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, on June 2, 2025.

Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

DETROIT — The unraveling of the U.S. electric vehicle push is increasingly raising concerns of an existential crisis for the American auto industry, as Chinese carmakers surge ahead in the technologies that many still believe will define the next era of cars.

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The latest warning sign came Friday, when Stellantis disclosed a $26 billion charge from a major business overhaul, including a pullback in EVs, triggering a more than 20% plunge in its stock. CEO Antonio Filosa blamed the hit on overestimating the pace of the energy transition.

It follows other automakers in the U.S. significantly pulling back from pure EVs in favor of large gas-guzzling trucks such as the Ford F-150 and SUVs like the Chevrolet Suburban. Chinese automakers are taking the opposite approach and are growing globally, led by EVs.

Legacy automakers General Motors and Ford Motor have lost billions of dollars on EVs and are pulling back partly because of the loss of a federal tax credit and lackluster consumer demand.

Even Tesla, which pioneered the EV industry, is facing pressure. It was surpassed by Chinese automaker BYD in EV sales as the Elon Musk-led brand lost its appeal and market share in Europe this year, while BYD ramped up exports there and around the world. Tesla also last week canceled its two oldest, lowest-selling electric vehicles to repurpose an American plant for humanoid robots.

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After helming the electrification movement for years, Musk increasingly appears focused elsewhere, especially on robots, driverless taxis and his artificial intelligence company, which he combined with Space X in what was the biggest merger in history.

Meanwhile, global market share of Chinese brands has jumped nearly 70% in five years, and many experts see a threat to U.S. automakers, including the anticipated entrance of Chinese brands into America.

There’s fear among global automakers that Chinese rivals like BYD and Geely could flood global markets, undercutting domestic production and vehicle prices. The U.S. has taken a protectionist approach by implementing 100% tariffs on imported EVs from China, but Chinese automakers have made inroads across Europe, South America and elsewhere.

Companies in the U.S., where the automotive industry represents about 5% of the country’s gross domestic product, are worried about long-term implications.

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“The Chinese auto industry presents an existential threat to the traditional [automakers],” said Terry Woychowski, a former GM executive who serves as president of automotive at engineering consulting firm Caresoft Global.

Several automotive experts used the word “existential” when discussing the growth of Chinese automakers.

“The existential risk to the U.S. auto industry isn’t Chinese EVs alone, it’s the combination of sustained government support, vertically integrated supply chains and speed,” said Elizabeth Krear, Center for Automotive Research CEO. “Those advantages lower costs and accelerate execution. Concurrently, saturation in China’s domestic market is driving automakers to expand aggressively into global markets.”

China’s growth

The Chinese automotive sector has rapidly changed from an insular industry to the largest exporter of vehicles globally since 2023.

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China’s growth has been fueled by government funding for companies as well as a culture of innovation and speed the country has instilled in its workers, experts said. A slowing Chinese market and plant underutilization have also forced companies to begin exporting to major auto markets globally.

China’s expansion of EVs has been particularly impressive, with a nearly 800% increase globally, largely fueled by sales in China growing from roughly 572,300 in 2020 to 4.95 million in 2025, according to GlobalData. Outside of China, EV sales have increased by more than 1,300%, from less than 33,000 to more than 474,000, per the firm.

While China has grown, Detroit’s “Big Three” automakers — GM, Ford and Chrysler parent Stellantis, which is no longer based in the U.S. — have collectively fallen from a global market share of 21.4% in 2019 to an estimated 15.7% in 2025, according to S&P Global Mobility.

That compares to China’s largest automakers BYD and Geely, which have grown from a less than 3% market share to an estimated 11.1%, according to S&P Global Mobility.

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HONG KONG, CHINA – JANUARY 05: A general view of the BYD Auto showroom on January 5, 2026, in Hong Kong, China. (Photo by Sawayasu Tsuji/Getty Images)

Sawayasu Tsuji | Getty Images News | Getty Images

China’s most recent announced expansion is to Canada, a relatively small vehicle market that removed 100% tariffs on imported vehicles from China amid a trade dispute with the Trump administration.

That follows the rapid growth of Chinese automakers in lower-income, less established regions that have historically been growth markets for U.S. automakers, such as South America, India, and Mexico. They’re also making inroads in Europe, where the share of sales has risen from virtually nothing in 2020 to nearly 10% in December, according to Germany-based Dataforce.

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“The shift to electric has made it easier for them, because they’ve got the right products,” said Al Bedwell, U.K.-based expert and director of global automotive powertrain for GlobalData. “The fact that it is electric has really opened the doors, and it wouldn’t have happened otherwise.”

Bedwell said China wanted to wean itself off oil since it doesn’t have vast amounts on its own. “It saw an opportunity to be a leader,” he added.

GlobalData forecasts Chinese EVs will continue to grow globally to roughly 6.5 million units by 2030, followed by nearly 8.5 million in 2035. That includes continued growth in the U.S., where a few China-made vehicles such as the Buick Envision have been imported in recent years.

“Breaking into the U.S. market successfully and sustainably is not an easy accomplishment; it takes time, investment, patience and the willingness to make product mistakes but improve them until you get it right. It is expected that some Chinese automakers will have that blend and eventually look to participate in the U.S. market,” said Stephanie Brinley, a principal automotive analyst at S&P Global Mobility.

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Brinley noted it took Japan’s Toyota Motor from 1957 to 2001 to reach a 10% market share, while South Korea’s Hyundai Motor reached 10% after 26 years in 2022.

US President Donald Trump speaks alongside Ford executive chairman Bill Ford as he tours Ford Motor Company’s River Rouge complex in Dearborn, Michigan, on January 13, 2026.

Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

“Because the U.S. is a mature market and sales are forecast to remain between 16 million and 16.5 million units through at least 2035, newcomers will take share from existing brands and automakers,” Brinley said. “How quickly they connect with consumers and which automakers lose volume or share to the new competitor remains to be seen.”

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The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a lobbying group representing nearly every automaker in the U.S., wants to prevent that from happening. It called on Congress and the Trump administration in December to prevent Chinese government-backed auto and advanced battery manufacturers from gaining entry to manufacture in the U.S.

“Automakers doing business inside the United States face geopolitical and market pressures from China that are a direct threat to America’s global competitiveness and national security,” John Bozzella, CEO of the alliance, said in a message to a U.S. House of Representatives select committee, citing unfair, anticompetitive trade practices and intellectual property theft.

State of U.S. EV industry

U.S. EV sales peaked in September, ahead of the federal incentives ending, at 10.3% of the new vehicle market, according to Cox Automotive. That demand plummeted to preliminary estimates of 5.2% during the fourth quarter.

GM CFO Paul Jacobson said Wednesday that the Detroit automaker, which has largely become a regional player in North America, isn’t abandoning EVs but is right-sizing to natural demand instead of attempting to appease regulators.

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When asked about the expansion of Chinese automakers, Jacobson said GM “can hold our own” but that it needs to be on a level playing field — rehashing that he thinks U.S. tariffs should work to offset subsidies Chinese companies get from the Chinese government.

“You can see the type of intensity and competitiveness that those vehicles bring to the marketplace. And therefore, we’ve got to be ready,” he said during a Chicago Federal Reserve automotive conference in Detroit.

GM wasn’t ready for the rise of the domestic auto industry in China, which was the company’s top sales market from 2010 to 2023. The automaker’s earnings from China fell from around $2 billion annually in 2018 to a second consecutive year of losses in 2025 as China grew its own auto manufacturing.

GM’s crosstown rival Ford is taking a different approach. It has largely scrapped plans for large EVs in exchange for a next-generation of smaller models that CEO Jim Farley believes will be the company’s saving grace against Chinese automakers.

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Farley, who has been complimentary of Chinese automakers at times, said the new platform will be a simple, efficient, flexible ecosystem to deliver a family of affordable, electric, software-defined vehicles.

“This is a Model T moment for the company,” Farley said last year. “We really see, not the global [automakers] as a competitive set for our next generation of EVs, we see the Chinese. Companies like Geely and BYD … and that’s how we built our vehicle.

From autos to autonomy

Domestic EV startups such as Rivian Automotive and Saudi-backed Lucid Group — both exclusively producing vehicles in the U.S. — are facing profitability and sales challenges.

Amid the demand issues, the EV startups have tried to appeal to investors by touting themselves as technology plays rather than automakers, following in the footsteps of U.S. EV industry leader Tesla.

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Tesla’s Musk has been warning about Chinese automakers for years, saying in 2023 after the rise of BYD that such companies will “demolish” global rivals without trade barriers.

BYD Auto and Tesla: the China EV battle

Musk has historically positioned Tesla as a technology company that also sells cars despite the vast majority of its revenue comes from car sales, leasing and repairs. He took it a step further on the company’s most recent quarterly earnings call, saying that Tesla is ending production of its Model S and X vehicles and will use the factory in Fremont, California, to instead build Optimus humanoid robots.

After the original Roadster, the two models are Tesla’s oldest vehicles. The EV maker started selling the Model S sedan in 2012, and the Model X SUV three years later. They only represented about 3% of Tesla’s sales in 2025, with the company continuing to offer the Model Y, Model 3 and Cybertruck.

In recent, years the company has slashed prices for those vehicles as global competition for electric vehicles has soared.

Musk believes China will once again be the company’s main competition in its newest humanoid robot venture.

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“China will definitely be the tough competition as there’s no two ways about it,” Musk said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “So I always think people outside of China kind of underestimate China. China’s an ass-kicker, next level.”

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Form S-1/A ARKO Petroleum Corp. For: 6 February

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Form S-1/A ARKO Petroleum Corp. For: 6 February

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Engineering powerhouses launch North East Data Centre to propel regional supply chain

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They have joined forces to launch a new not-for-profit forum designed to help shape and propel the future of the data centre sector

John McGee, group CEO at Durata

John McGee, group CEO at Durata(Image: Durata)

Leading engineering and manufacturing businesses in the North East have come together to launch a new organisation designed to propel the future of the region’s data centre sector. The North East Data Centre Hub has been founded by a consortium of five businesses, including RED Engineering Design, Cleveland Cable Company, CMP Products, Durata and RWO Associates.

Together, the firms say they share a clear ambition to help shape the sector, by collaborating on the development of a strong local engineering, construction, and digital supply chain.

The North East has been positioned as one of Europe’s largest data‑centre and AI infrastructure hubs, driven by Government policy, energy availability, and major investment, giving the North East Data Centre Hub the chance to shape local conversation and ramp up growth. A data centre is being built at Cambois, near Blyth, and another planned on Teesside.

The consortium aims to unlock the region’s full potential as a leading data centre destination. To mark its launch, the consortium will host the North East Data Centre Hub’s first networking event, which is already fully booked, on February 25 at Liberty House in Newcastle city centre.

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Speaking about the North East Data Hub and its first event, John McGee, group CEO at Durata said: “The hub provides an excellent opportunity for professionals in the sector – from developers and operators through to consultants and suppliers – to collaborate, share innovation and exchange best practice. By strengthening local connections, we can amplify the North East’s contribution to the wider UK and global data centre market.

“We are delighted with the companies spearheading this initiative. Each brings extensive global experience in delivering critical infrastructure projects, and by working together – and joining forces with other local businesses – we can build a strong, resilient regional supply chain that supports long‑term growth, investment, and skills development in the North East.

“With registration already reaching full capacity for our first event, it’s clear there is strong appetite for a hub of this nature. Many delegates will be attending with a shared goal, and this is just the beginning. We have an exciting programme of events planned over the next 12 months, with much more to come from the North East Data Centre Hub.”

The North East Data Centre Hub is open to organisations across the data centre ecosystem, with plans for a programme of bi-monthly events hosted across the region, featuring speakers with the opportunity for discussion and continued networking.

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Exclusive-Bangladesh PM front-runner rejects unity government offer, says his party set to win

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Exclusive-Bangladesh PM front-runner rejects unity government offer, says his party set to win


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Stellantis Stock Drops 25% After Earnings. There Goes the Dividend.

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Stellantis Stock Drops 25% After Earnings. There Goes the Dividend.

Stellantis Stock Drops 25% After Earnings. There Goes the Dividend.

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Automaker is stronger together amid $26 billion reset

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Automaker is stronger together amid $26 billion reset

Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa speaks during an event in Turin, Italy, Nov. 25, 2025.

Daniele Mascolo | Reuters

DETROIT — Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa on Friday said the automaker plans to move forward as one company amid speculation that it would be better off selling brands or splitting up after disappointing results.

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“Stellantis is a very strong global company that is very proud to have very deep regional groups,” Filosa, an Italian native, told reporters during a media call. “It makes all of sense to stay together. We want to stay together for many years to come.”

His comments come hours after the company announced 22 billion euros ($26 billion) in charges from a business restructuring that includes pulling back on electrification plans and reintroducing V8 engines to U.S. models. 

Filosa described the actions as an “important strategic reset of our business model, with the only intention to put our customer preferences back at the center of what we do globally and in each regions.” He said the “mission is to grow” after notable declines in market share in recent years.

Stellantis’ stock plunged more than 20% in Milan and New York markets.

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Filosa on Friday did not specifically rule out the possibility of regionally refocusing or shrinking the company’s vast portfolio of 14 auto brands that includes U.S. brands Jeep, Ram and Chrysler, as well as Italian nameplates Fiat and Alfa Romeo, which have not performed well domestically.

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Stellantis-listed shared in Milan and New York

“We want to really manage our brands in the sense to provide to them the products and the technology that our customers, that are now at the center of our strategic reset, will tell us that they want and they need,” he said. “This is our core mission.”

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Filosa said additional information about the company’s plans moving forward will come at a May 21 investor day.

Friday’s announcement comes days after Stellantis executives met with the company’s U.S. franchised dealers at their annual National Automobile Dealers Association conference with a message that the automaker planned to grow sales across its U.S. lineup of brands, according to two dealers who attended the meeting.

$26 billion in charges

The majority of Friday’s announced charges — 14.7 billion euros — are related to realigning product plans with consumer preferences and new emission regulations in the U.S.

Other charges include 2.1 billion euros in resizing the company’s EV supply chain, 4.1 billion euros in warranty costs and 1.3 billion euros in restructuring European operations.

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The automaker also canceled its dividend for 2026 and issued a 5 billion euro nonconvertible hybrid bond.

2026 Jeep Grand Wagoneer

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The charges related to EVs follow General Motors and Ford Motor announcing billions of dollars in similar expenses due to pullbacks in plans for all-electric vehicles.

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Shares of Ford and GM were not as impacted as much as Stellantis, which also issued lower-than-expected guidance amid years of strategic problems with the company.

Stellantis said it anticipates a net loss for 2025. For 2026, the auto giant is targeting a mid-single-digit percentage increase in net revenue and a low-single-digit rise in its adjusted operating income margin.

“While charges were expected, the amount comes in above F ($19.5B) and GM ($7.6B). Expect shares to trade meaningfully lower today as a result. We continue to believe STLAM is a show-me-story. In the US, the company has lost substantial market share given high pricing and a perceived lack of product investment,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said in a Friday investor note.

Past mistakes

Filosa on Friday called out mistakes by former company leaders more than he has since he succeeded Carlos Tavares as CEO in June.

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Tavares, who was ousted in December 2024 amid disagreements with the Stellantis board, in a book last year reportedly said that the group’s French, Italian and U.S. operations might have to be split amid pressure from its main stakeholders.

It’s been just over five years since Stellantis was created through a $52 billion combination of Italian American automaker Fiat Chrysler and France-based Groupe PSA on Jan. 16, 2021.

Stellantis takes €22B hit amid overhaul – shares dive

The merger formed the fourth-largest automaker by volume, but the company has run into significant problems in recent years amid its investments in all-electric vehicles, focus on profits over market share and cost-cutting efforts to the detriment of products.

Stellantis’ global sales under Tavares fell 12.3% from 6.5 million in 2021 — the year the company was formed — to 5.7 million in 2024. That included a roughly 27% collapse in the U.S. in that period to 1.3 million vehicles sold. The automaker dropped from fourth in U.S. sales to sixth, declining from an 11.6% market share to 8% during that time frame.

Stellantis’ global market share has fallen from 8.1% in 2020 to an estimated 6.1% last year, according to S&P Global Mobility.  

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Correction: Global market share for Stellantis has fallen from 8.1% in 2020 to an estimated 6.1% last year, according to S&P Global Mobility. An earlier version mischaracterized the percentage.

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Fractal Analytics raises Rs 1,249 crore from anchor investors ahead of IPO; Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs among key backers

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Fractal Analytics raises Rs 1,249 crore from anchor investors ahead of IPO; Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs among key backers
Fractal Analytics on Friday said it has raised Rs 1,249 crore from anchor investors ahead of its proposed initial public offering (IPO), after allotting 1,38,69,499 equity shares to 52 anchor investors at the upper end of the price band of Rs 900 per share.

The IPO will open for public subscription on Monday, February 9, and close on Wednesday, February 11. The price band has been fixed at Rs 857 to Rs 900 per equity share of face value Rs 1 each, with a minimum bid lot of 16 equity shares.

Out of the total anchor allocation, 52,77,680 equity shares (38.05%) were allotted to 11 domestic mutual funds through a total of 22 schemes, indicating strong participation from domestic institutions.

The anchor book witnessed demand from several leading mutual funds including SBI Mutual Fund, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund, UTI Mutual Fund, Trust Mutual Fund, Bandhan Mutual Fund, Invesco Mutual Fund, Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund, and Sundaram Mutual Fund, among others.

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Insurance companies that participated in the anchor round included Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), HDFC Life Insurance, SBI Life Insurance, Bharti AXA Life Insurance, and Edelweiss Life Insurance.


The issue also drew strong interest from global investors, including marquee long-only and institutional names such as Morgan Stanley Investment Funds and Goldman Sachs Bank Europe, along with Ashoka WhiteOak Emerging Markets Funds, Jupiter Global Fund, Societe Generale – ODI, Flumen Investment Trust, Optimix Wholesale Global Emerging Markets Share Trust, Neo Prime Fund, and Neo Secondaries Fund, among others.
Fractal Analytics describes itself as India’s first pure-play artificial intelligence company and a global provider of AI-powered analytics and decision science solutions to Fortune 500 companies, enabling enterprises to unlock business value through advanced data science, artificial intelligence and deep domain expertise.The IPO comprises a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 1,023 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) aggregating up to Rs 1,810 crore. The OFS is being undertaken by existing shareholders including Quinag Bidco Ltd, TPG Fett Holdings Pte., Satya Kumari Remala, Rao Venkateswara Remala, and GLM Family Trust. The issue also includes an employee reservation portion of up to Rs 600 million.

Kotak Mahindra Capital Company, Morgan Stanley India Company, Axis Capital, and Goldman Sachs (India) Securities are the book running lead managers to the offer.

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SEC Chairman Paul Atkins halts trading in China-linked ramp-and-dump stocks

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SEC Chairman Paul Atkins halts trading in China-linked ramp-and-dump stocks

The Securities and Exchange Commission has announced enforcement actions against stocks it suspects are involved in “pump-and-dump” or “ramp-and-dump” schemes tied to foreign-based companies, including entities with operations in China. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the agency is intensifying its crackdown on these manipulative practices to protect U.S. investors.

In September 2025, the SEC announced the formation of a Cross-Border Task Force within its Division of Enforcement to investigate potential violations of U.S. securities laws by foreign-based companies, including market manipulation. Atkins said the agency began investigating one such case as recently as last week.

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Atkins said the SEC has seen a rise in so-called “ramping-and-dumping” schemes, in which prices are artificially inflated before insiders sell their shares at elevated levels. These manipulative practices can leave retail investors with significant losses.

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Paul Atkins speaks ahead of a Bloomberg Television interview

Paul Atkins, chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), prior to a Bloomberg Television interview in Washington, DC, US, on July 18, 2025 (Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“Especially it’s some East Asia, China-related, companies where they’re small, kind of penny stocks on Nasdaq,” said Atkins Friday on “Mornings with Maria.”  

Atkins pointed to a recent investigation involving a New York Stock Exchange-listed company, where trading was halted after the firm failed to provide a satisfactory explanation for a sudden spike in its stock price.

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He said the company informed regulators that it had no material news or information that would explain the unusual rise in its stock price.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins speaks at New York Stock Exchange

Paul Atkins, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, speaks at the New York Stock Exchange in New York on Dec. 2, 2025. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“So we halted that. New York Stock Exchange is investigating it. So hopefully, you know, we’ll get to the bottom of that,” he added. 

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The SEC’s Cross-Border Task Force announced it would focus on “investigating potential U.S. federal securities law violations related to foreign-based companies,” including market manipulation schemes like pump-and-dump and ramp-and-dump. It also will scrutinize gatekeepers such as auditors and underwriters that assist these companies in accessing U.S. capital markets.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins wears

Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins wears a hat reading “Make IPOs Great Again” on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on Dec. 2, 2025. (Spencer Platt / Getty Images)

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“We welcome companies from around the world seeking access to the U.S. capital markets,” said Atkins during the task force announcement. 

“But we will not tolerate bad actors – whether companies, intermediaries, gatekeepers or exploitative traders – that attempt to use international borders to frustrate and avoid U.S. investor protections,” he continued. 

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Washington Trust Bancorp’s Surge Doesn’t Justify An Upgrade (NASDAQ:WASH)

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Washington Trust Bancorp's Surge Doesn't Justify An Upgrade (NASDAQ:WASH)

This article was written by

Daniel is an avid and active professional investor.
He runs Crude Value Insights, a value-oriented newsletter aimed at analyzing the cash flows and assessing the value of companies in the oil and gas space. His primary focus is on finding businesses that are trading at a significant discount to their intrinsic value by employing a combination of Benjamin Graham’s investment philosophy and a contrarian approach to the market and the securities therein. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Why the Epstein files have become a serious political risk for Labour

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Why the Epstein files have become a serious political risk for Labour

Political judgement matters to markets as much as it does to voters. As fresh revelations from the Epstein files trigger police interest and intensify scrutiny of Peter Mandelson’s role in public office, the controversy is fast becoming a wider test of Labour’s credibility in government.

In this exclusive commentary for Business Matters, former Downing Street strategist Alastair Campbell reflects on how a story once seen as historical embarrassment has evolved into a live political risk,  and why the consequences for Keir Starmer’s leadership could be profound.

Fresh revelations linking Peter Mandelson to Jeffrey Epstein have escalated rapidly from a troubling disclosure into a full-blown political crisis for the Labour government, raising urgent questions about judgement, accountability and leadership at the top of British politics.

In the days since the latest tranche of Epstein files was published, two issues have come to dominate the debate in the UK: whether Mandelson could face criminal investigation for misconduct in public office, and whether Keir Starmer can weather the political fallout from appointing him as Britain’s ambassador to the United States, despite his known association with the convicted paedophile.

The intensity with which those questions are now being asked underlines how precarious the situation has become for Labour. What might once have been dismissed as historical embarrassment has morphed into a live test of political judgement and ethical standards at the heart of government.

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For many observers, the shock lies not only in the scale of Epstein’s abuse, and the casual disregard shown towards his victims, but in the tone of some of the correspondence now in the public domain. The suggestion that Mandelson was providing Epstein with commentary on sensitive political developments during the fraught period surrounding the 2010 general election, alongside allegations of sharing potentially market-sensitive material and receiving money, has been particularly damaging.

These revelations sit uneasily with Labour’s attempts to project integrity and seriousness after years of Conservative scandal. They also reopen long-standing concerns about Mandelson’s judgement, concerns that were well known during his earlier Cabinet career, but which now carry far heavier consequences given the role he was asked to play on the world stage.

The political danger for Starmer is compounded by the perception that this controversy was avoidable. Mandelson’s friendship with Epstein was already on the record when the ambassadorial appointment was made. Critics argue that failing to anticipate how further disclosures might land reflects a broader pattern of miscalculation that has frustrated Labour MPs and unsettled supporters.

At the same time, there is a striking contrast between the scrutiny now facing the UK government and the relative lack of accountability for many prominent American figures named in the Epstein files. That imbalance has fuelled a sense of injustice and disbelief, particularly among Labour supporters who fear their party is paying a disproportionate political price.

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The timing could hardly be worse. With elections looming and opinion polls offering little comfort, the government is grappling with a restless parliamentary party and a Downing Street operation that many MPs privately describe as error-prone and overly defensive. The Epstein-Mandelson affair has become a focal point for wider discontent about direction, competence and political instincts.

For Labour veterans, the disappointment is acute. After a landslide victory that promised stability and renewal, the government now finds itself firefighting a crisis that cuts to the core of trust in public life. External pressures – from a harsher media environment to geopolitical instability, undoubtedly make governing harder than in previous eras. But they do not explain why unforced errors continue to accumulate.

The deeper question is whether this moment marks a turning point or a slow-burning erosion of authority. Can the government regain control of the narrative, reassert clear ethical standards and restore confidence among its own ranks? Or does the Epstein affair expose structural weaknesses in Labour’s leadership and decision-making that will continue to surface?

As police inquiries progress and political pressure mounts, one thing is clear: this story will not fade quickly. It will shape how voters, investors and international partners assess the judgement and resilience of the current government. And for a party that returned to power promising higher standards, the stakes could hardly be higher.

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Alastair Campbell

Alastair Campbell

Alastair Campbell is a writer, broadcaster and political strategist, best known as former Director of Communications and Strategy for UK Prime Minister Tony Blair. He is the co-host of the hit podcast The Rest Is Politics with Rory Stewart, one of the UK’s most-listened-to political podcasts. Watch or listen to The Rest Is Politics, wherever you get your podcasts.

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Earnings call transcript: Philip Morris Q4 2025 meets EPS forecast, revenue slightly exceeds

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