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Why is crypto down? 6 key factors from Bitwise’s Matt Hougan

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Why is crypto down? 6 key factors from Bitwise's Matt Hougan

Bitcoin has taken a significant hit recently, falling 14% in a single day and 25% over the past week. And this bear market could extend for several months before it fully bottoms, according to Bitwise’s Matt Hougan.

Summary

  • Bitcoin’s recent drop is driven by factors like investors preemptively adjusting to the four-year cycle, competition from AI and metals, and a major leveraged liquidation event.
  • While the market has fallen 54% from its peak, previous downturns have been more severe, Hougan says.
  • Regulatory progress and innovation will drive future growth, Hougan says. Fortune favors patient investors.

Although Bitcoin has shown a brief recovery, trading nearly 50% below its all-time high, investors are left grappling with questions: Why is the market down? Could it fall further? And when will it bottom?

6 key factors

According to Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, there are several complex reasons behind the current crypto market downturn, but six primary factors stand out.

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  1. The Four-Year Cycle: A major reason for the pullback is that long-term investors have been selling to preemptively adjust for the four-year market cycle, where crypto sees strong bull years followed by inevitable pullbacks. Investors, wary of a repeat of previous cycles, have sold significant portions of their holdings—estimated to be over $100 billion in Bitcoin last year alone.
  2. Competition from Other Markets: Crypto has enjoyed significant retail interest, but now AI stocks and precious metals are pulling some attention away. “Attention investors,” who flocked to crypto in recent years, are now diverting their capital elsewhere.
  3. The October 10 Leverage Liquidation: The crypto market also faced the largest leveraged liquidation event in history following an unexpected announcement by former President Donald Trump. This event triggered panic selling in the absence of traditional market liquidity, further depressing prices.
  4. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Leadership: President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair raised concerns, particularly among investors who feared Warsh’s hawkish stance on interest rates, creating unease in broader markets, including crypto.
  5. Rising Fears of Quantum Computing: There’s a growing anxiety within the crypto community about the potential threat of quantum computing, which could undermine the security of Bitcoin. While many believe it’s a long-term issue, the lack of visible action has led some investors to retreat from the market.
  6. Macro Risk-Off Sentiment: A broader shift in global markets towards risk-off sentiment has affected Bitcoin. Alongside Bitcoin’s struggles, other assets like gold, silver, and tech stocks have also seen steep declines.

Could crypto fall further?

While the market’s current drawdown of 54% from its peak seems severe, Hougan cautions that it could go lower.

Previous downturns have been much larger—Bitcoin fell 86% in 2014, 84% in 2018, and 77% in 2022.

Historical trends suggest that bear markets typically last 12-13 months, so this current slump might not be over yet. However, given crypto’s maturing nature, a 77% drop seems unlikely, though it remains a possibility.

What could help it recover?

For many seasoned investors, this moment feels similar to past bear markets in 2018 and 2022, which were followed by massive rallies. Investors who bought the dip in those years saw substantial returns—around 2,000% from 2018 and 300% from 2022.

The fundamentals supporting crypto are still in place: a growing demand for digital currencies, increasing regulatory clarity, and innovations like tokenization and stablecoins continue to drive the sector forward.

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The timing of the market bottom remains uncertain, but recovery often comes through time and exhaustion. Specific catalysts could accelerate recovery, such as regulatory developments like the Clarity Act, the continued rise of AI-linked crypto projects, or a return to risk-on market sentiment.

For now, Hougan advises patience. While it’s impossible to predict the exact moment the market will turn, the long-term outlook for crypto remains promising for those with the fortitude to weather the storm.

Crypto markets are volatile, and the current downturn could continue in the short term, Hougan adds. However, for investors with a long-term perspective, history suggests that bear markets often precede significant growth.

With key factors like regulatory advancements and growing adoption still in play, he argues that crypto’s future still holds substantial upside, making the current moment a potential buying opportunity for those prepared to wait.

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Ripple Researchers Propose Privacy-Preserving Transfers for XRPL Multi-Purpose Tokens

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The Ripple research team has published a paper on adding transaction privacy to the XRP Ledger (XRPL). 

The paper introduces Confidential Transfers for Multi-Purpose Tokens (Confidential MPTs). The goal is to enable institutional and regulated use cases, with issuer controls such as freezing and clawbacks.

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The paper is authored by Murat Cenk, Aanchal Malhotra, and Joseph Ayo Akinyele. The Confidential MPTs would be a cryptographic extension of the XLS-33 token standard, which went live on the XRPL mainnet in October 2025

The protocol replaces plaintext per-account balances with EC-ElGamal ciphertexts. Furthermore, it uses non-interactive zero-knowledge proofs to enforce transfer correctness and balance sufficiency without requiring decryption by validators. 

Meanwhile, sender and receiver identities remain visible, preserving XRPL’s account-based model

“To accommodate regulatory and institutional requirements, Confidential MPTs provide cryptographic auditability through an on-chain selective-disclosure model based on multi-ciphertext balance representations and equality proofs, while remaining compatible with simpler issuer-mediated audit models,” the abstract reads.

The timing aligns with shifting regulatory attitudes toward on-chain privacy. In a recent report submitted to Congress in early March, the US Treasury Department acknowledged that lawful users of digital assets may rely on mixers when transacting on public blockchains.

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The privacy paper arrives as Ripple simultaneously strengthens the network’s security foundation. The firm recently outlined an AI-driven security strategy for XRPL.

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The post Ripple Researchers Propose Privacy-Preserving Transfers for XRPL Multi-Purpose Tokens appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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DeFi Tokens Face Pressure as CLARITY Act Targets Stablecoin Yields

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Takeaways

  • Proposed legislation would prohibit stablecoins from generating yields, limiting them to payment functions exclusively
  • The change would redirect yield opportunities toward traditional banking and money market instruments
  • Popular DeFi platforms including Uniswap, Aave, and Compound may encounter stricter regulations on value distribution
  • Trading volumes, liquidity depth, and token demand across DeFi could decline significantly
  • Regulated stablecoin issuers like Circle stand to gain from tighter integration with payment systems

The most recent iteration of the CLARITY Act has sparked significant discussion around its stablecoin provisions. Industry experts warn that decentralized finance tokens may bear the brunt of the legislation’s consequences.

Under the proposed framework, stablecoins would be prohibited from providing yields or any similar incentive structures, including balance-based rewards. This restriction would fundamentally transform stablecoins into payment instruments rather than blockchain-based savings vehicles.

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Markus Thielen, who established 10x Research, indicated that the legislation would effectively channel yield opportunities back into conventional financial systems. Traditional banks, money market vehicles, and compliant financial products would capture these benefits, while cryptocurrency-native services would lose competitive advantage in offering returns.

Initial speculation suggested that DeFi platforms might actually attract more users if centralized crypto services were prevented from distributing yields. The theory presumed capital would migrate toward onchain alternatives.

However, Thielen challenged this assumption. He explained that the CLARITY regulatory structure would probably apply to user-facing platforms and token economics, especially when fee structures or governance mechanisms begin resembling equity instruments.

Potential Impact on DeFi Platforms

This regulatory approach places numerous DeFi initiatives under scrutiny. Decentralized trading venues and lending services may encounter fresh restrictions governing their operations and value distribution mechanisms.

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Platforms such as Uniswap, Sushi, and dYdX face potential consequences, alongside lending services like Aave and Compound. Enhanced regulatory oversight might trigger diminished trading activity, thinner liquidity pools, and decreased token valuations, the 10x Research analysis suggests.

The fundamental question centers on whether these platforms can maintain fee distribution or incentive programs for token holders without triggering new stablecoin-focused regulations.

Thielen observed that distinguishing between governance tokens and regulated financial instruments grows increasingly complex within this regulatory framework.

Circle Positioned for Potential Gains

The legislation wouldn’t create obstacles for every cryptocurrency entity. Circle, which issues the USDC stablecoin, might emerge as a beneficiary under the proposed rules.

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Thielen characterized the regulation as fundamentally favorable for infrastructure providers like Circle. Should stablecoins become embedded within payment networks, issuers maintaining robust regulatory compliance would secure advantageous positions.

The CLARITY Act continues advancing through the legislative pipeline. Congress has not yet enacted a final version.

While stablecoin provisions dominate policy discussions in Washington, industry analysts emphasize that the ripple effects across DeFi ecosystems deserve equal attention.

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White House App Sparks Privacy Fears Over Tracking and Data Collection

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Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications

A new app from the US government has sparked concerns among users and researchers over potential location-tracking features, security vulnerabilities and data collection.

The White House launched the app on Friday as a way for users to get a “direct line to the White House,” including receiving breaking news alerts on major government announcements, watching livestreams and keeping up to date on “policy breakthroughs.”

However, users on X have raised concerns about the permissions required to use the app, including access to the device’s location, shared storage and network activity, though these claims have not been independently verified.

While many apps often request location permissions and can log user data, an app launched by the federal government requesting this information can invite additional concerns. 

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However, both listings on the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store currently do not display these warnings.

A White House app privacy policy said it automatically stores information about the originating Internet Protocol (IP) address and other basic information, while it can retain names and email addresses of subscribers, though these are not required to use the app.

Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications
Source: Tyler Oakley

Cointelegraph has contacted the White House for comment.

Security engineer says GPS tracking is part of the app

On the app’s Google Play Store page, it states that personal data, including phone numbers and email addresses, may be collected through download and use. Apple’s App Store, meanwhile, directs users to the White House’s privacy policy.

A software developer using the X handle Thereallo, along with Adam, a security engineer and infrastructure architect, say they have identified code suggesting the app could access a device’s GPS for tracking.

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While the feature is common across a number of apps, Adam said it is unusual for location-tracking services to be in software that does not appear to need them.

“There is no map, no local news, no geofencing, no events near you, no weather. Nothing in the app that requires location,” he added.

Concerns of GPS tracking every 4.5 minutes

Thereallo made a similar claim that the app includes code that could enable tracking a device every 4.5 minutes in the foreground and 9.5 minutes in the background, though this has not been independently verified.

Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications
Source: Thereallo

They found that it still requires permission but warned that it is only “one call away from activating,” and that the tracking “infrastructure is there, ready to go.”

Related: Trump advisory council draws Coinbase co-founder, tech leaders

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At the same time, Thereallo said the app is collecting other data such as notification interactions, in-app message clicks and phone number.

Security could be broken, researcher says

Adam said the app’s security may also be weak enough for a technically skilled person to intercept its data or alter its functionality

“Anyone on the same Wi-Fi network, say, at a coffee shop, an airport, or a congressional hearing room, can intercept API traffic with a proxy. Anyone with a jailbroken device can hook and modify the app’s behavior at runtime,” he said.

“No servers were probed. No network traffic was intercepted. No DRM was bypassed. No tools were used that require jailbreaking. Everything described here is observable by anyone who downloads the app from the App Store and has a terminal.”

Magazine: Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF undercuts BlackRock, SBF pardon unlikely: Hodler’s Digest, Mar. 22 – 28

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