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Strategy says BTC would need to fall to $8K to strain debt

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Strategy says BTC would need to fall to $8K to strain debt

Strategy has told investors that Bitcoin would have to collapse to around $8,000 before its crypto holdings no longer cover the company’s net debt, even as paper losses continue to deepen.

Summary

  • Strategy holds more than 713,000 BTC acquired at an average of $76,052.
  • Management says debt coverage fails only near $8,000.
  • Current Bitcoin prices place holdings about $10B below cost.

The Michael Saylor-led firm made the disclosure in investor materials released alongside its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 5.

At the time of the filing, Strategy said its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings were worth $59.7 billion at a reference price of $84,000, about 10 times compared with net debt of about $6 billion.

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With Bitcoin now trading near $63,800, the value of those holdings has fallen to roughly $45.4 billion, as per Saylor Tracker data, down about $10 billion from the company’s average purchase cost.

Debt coverage and balance sheet position

Strategy said its Bitcoin would fail to cover net debt only in what it described as an “extreme scenario” involving a drop to $8,000, a level last seen in early 2020. The company added that its Bitcoin is unencumbered and not pledged as collateral, which limits the risk of forced selling even during sharp market declines.

As of Feb. 1, 2026, Strategy held 713,502 BTC, acquired at a total cost of $54.26 billion, or $76,052 per coin. The firm also reported a 22.8% Bitcoin yield for fiscal year 2025, reflecting gains from capital raising and reinvestment strategies.

During 2025, Strategy raised $25.3 billion in capital, making it the largest U.S. equity issuer for a second straight year. It also completed five preferred stock offerings, raising $5.5 billion, and expanded its digital credit program, STRC, to $3.4 billion.

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“We raised $25.3 billion of capital in 2025 to advance our Bitcoin treasury strategy,” said president and CEO Phong Le. “In 2026, we remain focused on expanding STRC to generate amplification and drive growth in Bitcoin Per Share.”

Chief financial officer Andrew Kang said the company’s capital structure is stronger than in previous cycles, citing its $2.25 billion reserve fund, which covers more than two years of dividend and interest payments.

Michael Saylor described Strategy’s balance sheet as a “digital fortress,” built around its Bitcoin holdings and digital credit platform.

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Losses, valuation, and sector-wide pressure

Strategy’s confidence in its debt coverage comes as losses linked to Bitcoin volatility continue to weigh on financial results.

Due to unrealized losses on digital assets under fair value accounting, the company reported an operating loss of $17.4 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025. Common shareholders incurred a net loss of $12.6 billion, or $42.93 per diluted share.

With Bitcoin trading in the low $60,000 range, Strategy’s holdings are now valued at about $45.4 billion, well below their $54.26 billion acquisition cost. Since late 2025, as prices fell and selling pressure mounted on cryptocurrency markets, that gap has grown. 

At the moment, the company’s diluted multiple to net asset value, or mNAV, is about 0.85x. mNAV measures how the market values a firm’s equity relative to the net value of its assets, mainly its Bitcoin holdings, after accounting for debt. A ratio below 1 means the stock is trading at a discount to the underlying asset value.

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Pressure is also building across the wider crypto treasury sector. Data from Artemis shows that unrealized losses among crypto accumulation firms have surpassed $25 billion. None of those firms has generated profits that exceed acquisition costs.

Some analysts view Strategy’s $8,000 threshold as a theoretical floor rather than a realistic risk. Others note that prolonged weakness below $60,000 could test investor confidence, raise re-financing costs, and limit the company’s ability to raise new capital on favorable terms.

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Crypto World

White House App Sparks Privacy Fears Over Tracking and Data Collection

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Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications

A new app from the US government has sparked concerns among users and researchers over potential location-tracking features, security vulnerabilities and data collection.

The White House launched the app on Friday as a way for users to get a “direct line to the White House,” including receiving breaking news alerts on major government announcements, watching livestreams and keeping up to date on “policy breakthroughs.”

However, users on X have raised concerns about the permissions required to use the app, including access to the device’s location, shared storage and network activity, though these claims have not been independently verified.

While many apps often request location permissions and can log user data, an app launched by the federal government requesting this information can invite additional concerns. 

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However, both listings on the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store currently do not display these warnings.

A White House app privacy policy said it automatically stores information about the originating Internet Protocol (IP) address and other basic information, while it can retain names and email addresses of subscribers, though these are not required to use the app.

Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications
Source: Tyler Oakley

Cointelegraph has contacted the White House for comment.

Security engineer says GPS tracking is part of the app

On the app’s Google Play Store page, it states that personal data, including phone numbers and email addresses, may be collected through download and use. Apple’s App Store, meanwhile, directs users to the White House’s privacy policy.

A software developer using the X handle Thereallo, along with Adam, a security engineer and infrastructure architect, say they have identified code suggesting the app could access a device’s GPS for tracking.

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While the feature is common across a number of apps, Adam said it is unusual for location-tracking services to be in software that does not appear to need them.

“There is no map, no local news, no geofencing, no events near you, no weather. Nothing in the app that requires location,” he added.

Concerns of GPS tracking every 4.5 minutes

Thereallo made a similar claim that the app includes code that could enable tracking a device every 4.5 minutes in the foreground and 9.5 minutes in the background, though this has not been independently verified.

Business, Technology, Privacy, Adoption, White House, Applications
Source: Thereallo

They found that it still requires permission but warned that it is only “one call away from activating,” and that the tracking “infrastructure is there, ready to go.”

Related: Trump advisory council draws Coinbase co-founder, tech leaders

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At the same time, Thereallo said the app is collecting other data such as notification interactions, in-app message clicks and phone number.

Security could be broken, researcher says

Adam said the app’s security may also be weak enough for a technically skilled person to intercept its data or alter its functionality

“Anyone on the same Wi-Fi network, say, at a coffee shop, an airport, or a congressional hearing room, can intercept API traffic with a proxy. Anyone with a jailbroken device can hook and modify the app’s behavior at runtime,” he said.

“No servers were probed. No network traffic was intercepted. No DRM was bypassed. No tools were used that require jailbreaking. Everything described here is observable by anyone who downloads the app from the App Store and has a terminal.”

Magazine: Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF undercuts BlackRock, SBF pardon unlikely: Hodler’s Digest, Mar. 22 – 28

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