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IFS Warns of Covid-Era Decline

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Britain's young workers are quietly slipping out of the labour market at a pace not seen since the pandemic, and economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies are warning that ministers can no longer treat the slide as a passing wobble.

Britain’s young workers are quietly slipping out of the labour market at a pace not seen since the pandemic, and economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies are warning that ministers can no longer treat the slide as a passing wobble.

Fresh analysis from the IFS, published ahead of the latest Office for National Statistics labour market release, shows the share of 16- to 24-year-olds on a UK payroll has fallen by 4.3 percentage points since December 2022, a drop of roughly 330,000 young people. Payrolled employment in the age group now stands at 50.6 per cent, down from 54.9 per cent three years earlier.

To put the scale in context, the Covid-19 shock pulled youth employment down by 6.5 points, and the 2008 financial crisis prised away 5.4 points relative to the pre-crisis trend. The current decline, in other words, is no longer a rounding error, it is approaching the territory of a full-blown labour market crisis, but without the obvious headline-grabbing trigger that accompanied the last two.

The consequences are already visible in the so-called Neet figures, those not in education, employment or training. The cohort has swelled from 760,000 at the end of 2022 to roughly 960,000 by the close of last year, closing in on the one-million mark that policymakers had long treated as a symbolic red line.

A scarring effect that outlasts the slump

Jed Michael, author of the IFS report, did not mince his words. “The fall in youth employment across the UK is likely to be setting off alarm bells among ministers, not least because we know that unemployment early in one’s career can have lasting negative consequences,” he said.

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That so-called “scarring effect” is well documented. Graduates and school leavers who enter the workforce during a downturn typically earn less, change jobs more often and reach senior pay grades later than peers who began in benign conditions. The hit is not just personal: lost productivity, weaker tax receipts and higher benefits bills follow young people through their working lives.

Michael’s caveat, however, is one ministers ought to dwell on. “While it does not seem to be down solely to a temporary cyclical downturn in the economy, more evidence is needed to understand the roles of minimum wage, youth mental health, AI and other factors,” he added. “Without this evidence, expensive policies to reduce the Neet rate are shots in the dusk, if not the dark.”

An unusually structural shock

The UK has historically been a star performer in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development league tables for youth employment. That advantage is eroding, and the data suggests something more than a standard cyclical slump is at work.

The pain is sharpest among 22- to 24-year-olds, typically graduates and college-leavers stepping onto the first rung of the career ladder. Employment in that group has dropped by 4.8 points in three years. The 18- to 21-year-olds have fared better, down only 1.1 points, while 16- and 17-year-olds have seen a 7.3-point slide that the IFS attributes largely to vanishing casual and part-time work alongside studies.

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Geographically, the slump is broad rather than concentrated. Payrolled employment among the young has fallen by at least three points in two thirds of the UK’s regions and nations, and the share of 18- to 24-year-olds claiming out-of-work benefits has risen across the board. Cyclical downturns tend to land unevenly; this one is hitting almost everywhere.

The IFS flags two potential structural culprits worth watching: the rapid uptake of artificial intelligence in white-collar entry-level work, and the well-documented decline in youth mental health. Business Matters has previously reported on how AI and rising employer costs have already wiped out close to a third of UK entry-level vacancies since the launch of ChatGPT, a shift that disproportionately closes the door on first jobs.

On the minimum wage question, a long-standing battleground in the youth employment debate, the IFS is more cautious. Its central estimates do not point to a “sizeable effect” from recent wage floor increases, suggesting that broader structural factors are doing most of the heavy lifting.

A call to action, not a counsel of despair

Jonathan Townsend, UK chief executive at The King’s Trust, which co-funded the report, said the findings should sharpen minds in both Whitehall and the boardroom.

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“These findings should concern anyone who cares about young people’s futures,” he said. “Too many young people are already out of work, education or training, and this analysis suggests we cannot simply assume the problem will correct itself as economic conditions improve.”

“This challenge is not impossible to fix. The message is that reversing the rise in young people out of work or education will take concerted action, a better understanding of what is driving it, and the right support for young people at the right time.”

Townsend added: “For an organisation whose vision is to help end youth unemployment, that is a clear call to action. We urgently need to understand what is pulling more young people away from work and education.”

The Government has begun moving in that direction, most recently with £3,000 grants for employers willing to hire unemployed young people who have spent at least six months on benefits. Whether such targeted subsidies are enough to offset what looks increasingly like a structural shift, driven by automation, wage costs and a generation’s fragile mental health, is the question the IFS has now put squarely on ministers’ desks.

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For Britain’s SMEs, which collectively employ the lion’s share of young workers, the message is sobering. A generation locked out of the labour market today will be a smaller, less productive, less confident pool of talent tomorrow. The cost of inaction, the IFS suggests, will be paid not in a single Budget cycle but over the working lifetime of an entire cohort.


Jamie Young

Jamie Young

Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.

When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.

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Emyria moves on clinical drugs play

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Emyria moves on clinical drugs play

A Perth-based company could win big from a change in US health policy.

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Apollo Micro Systems shares rally 22% in 3 days after strong Q4 results. Should you buy?

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Apollo Micro Systems shares rally 22% in 3 days after strong Q4 results. Should you buy?
The shares of Apollo Micro Systems have recorded a sharp surge recently, rallying 22% in three sessions following the release of its results for the January-March quarter of the financial year 2026.

The shares of the company jumped nearly 6% to hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 377.7 apiece on NSE in the morning trading hours of Thursday. The multibagger stock has rallied 28% in one month and 153% in one year, delivering 1,022% returns over three years and 3,026% returns over five years.

The defence player on Monday reported a 163% year-on-year (YoY) surge in its consolidated net profit to Rs 36.8 crore for Q4 FY26, from Rs 14 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. The firm’s revenue from operations meanwhile rallied 81% YoY to Rs 293.3 crore during the quarter under review, as against Rs 161.8 crore in the year-ago period.

Also Read | Multibagger Apollo Micro Systems shares soar 19% in two sessions. What’s behind the sharp rise?

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For the entire financial year which ended on March 31, 2026, Apollo Micro Systems reported a 90% YoY surge in net profit to Rs 107.4 crore, while revenue from operations jumped 61% You to Rs 940.3 crore. Apollo Micro Systems Managing Director Baddam Karunakar Reddy described FY26 as a “breakthrough year” for the company, driven by record revenue and profitability, the successful acquisition of IDL Explosives through ADIPL, the receipt of a DPIIT licence for UAV manufacturing, and the company securing its first export order.


Reddy also said another acquisition through ADIPL is likely to be completed before the end of the next financial year, which could further enhance the company’s capabilities and future growth prospects.
During the year, the company posted its highest-ever quarterly and annual EBITDA. It also delivered record profit after tax on both a quarterly and yearly basis, while achieving an all-time high order book. In addition, the company surpassed its annual PAT margin guidance.

Should buy, sell or hold Apollo Micro Systems shares?


Apollo Micro Systems has witnessed a strong breakout above the crucial Rs 355 resistance zone backed by sharp volume expansion, indicating fresh momentum buying and continuation of the ongoing uptrend, said Virat Jagad, Senior Technical Research Analyst, at Bonanza Portfolio.

Also Read | Market Trading Guide: Buy Manappuram Finance and Apollo Micro Systems on Thursday for gains up to 8%

“The stock is trading above all major EMAs, reflecting strong bullish structure across short- and long-term time frames, while RSI is sustaining above 60, supporting positive momentum despite minor volatility,” he said.

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Investors can consider fresh buying with a stop loss of Rs 340, while upside target should be placed at Rs 385 and Rs 400, the analyst added. “Sustained trade above Rs 355 can further accelerate bullish momentum in coming sessions,” he further said.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Jubilant Foodworks shares crash 8% after Domino’s India operator’s Q4 results. What spooked investors?

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Jubilant Foodworks shares crash 8% after Domino's India operator's Q4 results. What spooked investors?
Shares of Jubilant Foodworks crashed more than 8% on Thursday after the Domino’s India operator released its results for the fourth quarter of FY26, with brokerages reducing target prices citing multiple headwinds.

The company on Wednesday reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 79.79 crore for the January-March quarter of the financial year 2026, marking a whopping 66% year-on-year (YoY) rise from the Rs 48 crore net profit reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. The firm’s revenue from operations, meanwhile, grew 19% YoY to Rs 2,499 crore during the quarter under review, as against Rs 2,095 crore in the year-ago period.

Along with the Q4 results, Jubilant FoodWorks said its board recommended a dividend of Rs 1.2 per share (60%) with a face value of Rs 2 each for the financial year that ended on March 31, 2026. This is, however, subject to shareholders’ approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM).

“During March, select markets experienced temporary LPG supply constraints, which had a limited and localised impact on our operations. Overall, this translated into an estimated 30–40 basis points impact on Q4 FY26 like-for-like growth of Domino’s India. The situation was effectively managed through swift operational measures, including temporary menu reconfigurations at a small set of stores, dynamic realignment of delivery catchments, and use of alternative energy sources. Since then, we have progressively reduced our dependence on LPG, diversified vendor sourcing to further de-risk supply, and benefited from improved availability following the Government of India’s interventions. In Q1FY27, the LPG supply has largely normalised, and the business operations have normalised to pre-disruption levels,” the company said in its letter to shareholders.

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Nuvama on Jubilant Foodworks

Nuvama said that Jubilant Foodworks’ Q4 earnings were “very weak” considering a pickup in growth sentiments across the QSR space and the peer group performing better. “The margin expansion outlook rests on two assumptions: accelerating Domino’s growth and Popeyes turning the corner on losses with scale. Both appear optimistic in the backdrop of rising cost pressures,” it said.
Nuvama maintained its ‘Buy’ rating with a negative bias on the shares of Jubilant Foodworks, and reduced its target price to Rs 646 apiece from Rs 744 apiece earlier. The latest target price implies an upside potential of nearly 37% from the stock’s previous closing price. The brokerage also reduced its earnings estimates for the Domino’s India operator.

Morgan Stanley on Jubilant Foodworks

Morgan Stanley maintained its ‘Equal weight’ rating on the shares of Jubilant Foodworks, with a target price of Rs 486 apiece, implying an upside potential of nearly 3% from the stock’s previous closing price.

The international brokerage highlighted that Domino’s India revenue growth moderated 5% YoY in Q4, and like-for-like growth declined sharply sequentially to 0.2%, ET Now reported. It added that the performance was impacted by lower average bill value and weaker dine-in sales.

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Morgan Stanley expects the company to face margin headwinds from LPC, labour and commodity inflation, while noting that it has taken nearly 1.2% price hike so far. According to the international brokerage, weak Q4 and near-term headwinds can keep the stock under pressure.

Goldman Sachs on Jubilant Foodworks

Goldman Sachs maintained its ‘Neutral’ call on the shares of Jubilant Foodworks, but reduced its target price to Rs 460 from Rs 480. The latest target price implies a downside potential of nearly 3% from the stock’s previous closing price.

The international brokerage said that the firm’s Q4 EBITDA was slightly ahead of estimates due to Dunkin’ classification as discontinued operations, ET Now reported. It, however, flagged near-term margin pressure from energy, wage and raw material inflation.

Also Read: Protean eGov Technologies jumps 20% after strong Q4 profit and revenue growth

Goldman Sachs reduced its earnings estimates for the company, while expecting Domino’s India growth to lag peers in FY27.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Wes Streeting pledges 'wealth tax that works'

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Wes Streeting pledges 'wealth tax that works'

Wes Streeting is proposing reforms to capital gains tax, as part of his pitch for the Labour leadership.

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Matrix Service Company (MTRX) Presents at Sidoti Micro-Cap Virtual Conference – Slideshow

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Matrix Service Company (MTRX) Presents at Sidoti Micro-Cap Virtual Conference – Slideshow

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Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King slaps down One Nation gas policy

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Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King slaps down One Nation gas policy

A One Nation plan to follow Norway’s lead on capturing oil and gas profits has been labelled ‘backwards’ by Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King.

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CEO Greg Abel Takes Up Berkshire’s Passion for Airlines

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Alphabet Is Selling 100-Year Debt as Part of a Big Bond Sale

Warren Buffett had a tortured relationship with airline investments as the conglomerate’s longtime chief executive. Now his successor, Greg Abel, is showing an early fondness for them, too. Berkshire declined to comment. It is possible the conglomerate has exited from or changed its Delta position, because its regulatory filing last week disclosing the stake reflected investments in the first quarter. Read more:

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Tactical buying visible in IT, selective opportunities emerging in auto ancillaries: Neeraj Dewan

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Tactical buying visible in IT, selective opportunities emerging in auto ancillaries: Neeraj Dewan
India’s equity markets continue to witness a tug-of-war between optimism in the broader market and caution around inflationary pressures, elevated crude prices, and uncertain global developments. While frontline indices remain largely range-bound, selective buying in midcaps and smallcaps has resurfaced as investors respond positively to quarterly earnings announcements.

Market expert Neeraj Dewan believes the broader market has started showing resilience again after a brief phase of profit booking earlier in May.

“There was this smallcap, midcap that has done very well in April. Then beginning of May we saw some profit booking but again buying is coming back once the results are getting declared. So, the market may remain range bound till you get absolute clarity. A lot of stocks which are dependent on crude will stay subdued. They will still stay in a range or may correct a bit, but broader market has started participating, that is something which is a welcome thing in the market,” said Dewan in an interaction with ET Now.

Margin Pressure Persists For QSR Players

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Among individual stocks, investors closely tracked the earnings performance of Jubilant FoodWorks after the company reported disappointing overall numbers despite margin performance beating estimates.


According to Dewan, disruptions in the food business likely impacted the quarter, even as margins held up relatively well. He noted that elevated crude and raw material costs remain a key concern for food companies, particularly in a highly competitive quick-service restaurant environment.
“Yes, this quarter there were disruptions for the food business, so I think that would have come into the numbers. Because margins are still intact and margins as per what people were expecting, so I feel that if things were to improve as far as crude prices are concerned, as far as raw material prices are concerned, then things may look better,” he said.He added that while seasonal demand during the holiday period may support revenue recovery, inflation continues to threaten profitability across the sector.

Competition has also intensified significantly in the QSR space, limiting the ability of companies to pass higher input costs on to consumers.

“Yes, QSR because there is a lot of competition now. So, earlier there was less competition, so they were able to pass on the price increases easily. But for someone like a Jubilant Food or even McDonald’s now there is competition from local domestic players whether pizzas, burgers you get so many options now. So, it is not so easy to pass on,” Dewan noted.

He cautioned that sustained inflation could continue to weigh on margins and suggested investors remain in a wait-and-watch mode until there is greater visibility on inflation trends and sales momentum.

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Auto Ancillaries See Selective Value Buying

The auto ancillary space, which had remained under pressure due to rising crude-linked input costs, is now witnessing selective buying interest.

Dewan highlighted that tyre companies and several ancillary stocks have not reacted strongly despite posting healthy earnings, mainly because of concerns around elevated crude prices. However, he believes a meaningful correction in crude oil prices could trigger sharp buying and short-covering in these counters.

“Yes, I think there was some pressure in the auto ancillaries earlier but slowly some value buying is emerging there. Even if you look at tyre stocks, there is pressure there because crude prices are high and there is a lot of dependence on crude for tyre companies,” he said.

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He added that any easing in geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the US and Iran, could significantly improve sentiment for these stocks.

IT Rally Seen More As Tactical Play

On the information technology sector, Dewan described the recent move in IT stocks as largely tactical rather than conviction-driven.

Despite some bargain hunting after steep corrections, he believes weak earnings guidance from major IT companies continues to cap enthusiasm in the sector.

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“It is a value buying which is happening. It is more like a tactical play because the kind of guidance that they have given is also so low that you do not expect too much to happen as far as earnings is concerned for them this year also,” he said.

He pointed out that companies with stronger enterprise solutions and differentiated products could outperform peers, though broad-based confidence in the sector remains limited.

Long-Term EV Ecosystem Story Still Intact

Dewan also shared a constructive outlook on the electric vehicle ecosystem, particularly companies investing heavily in energy storage and battery infrastructure.

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While he remained cautious on Ola Electric, he expressed optimism about players such as JSW Energy and Adani Green Energy, citing their large-scale investments in battery storage and clean energy solutions.

“The EV based capex has been coming but because it is huge capex that is required for some of these companies, so it is taking time for the execution to happen,” Dewan said.

He believes these companies could benefit meaningfully over the next two to three years as capacities ramp up and economies of scale begin to improve profitability.

Cautious Optimism On Two-Wheelers

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Within the automobile space, Dewan maintained a positive long-term view on two-wheelers but advised investors to remain selective in the near term amid inflation concerns and macro uncertainty.

Among key players, he favours TVS Motor Company due to its strong execution and consistent earnings performance over recent quarters.

“I like TVS because they have done very well as far execution is concerned and last so many quarters now they have been showing good results also,” he said.

However, he recommended gradual accumulation rather than aggressive buying, citing concerns around inflation, monsoon progress, and crude price volatility.

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ITC, Hospitals In Focus During Earnings Season

In the FMCG space, investors are awaiting earnings from ITC Limited amid concerns over duty hikes and their potential impact on cigarette volumes.

Dewan believes ITC could still deliver healthy volume growth alongside stable FMCG margins, especially after encouraging numbers from peers such as Godfrey Phillips India, Tata Consumer Products and Hindustan Unilever.

Healthcare stocks also continue to remain strong despite elevated valuations. Dewan expects Max Healthcare Institute to report robust numbers in line with the performance of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise.

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“Actually, all these hospital stocks though we have been for the last six months, one year that they are expensive but the numbers have been always quite positive and they have been able to declare better numbers and that is why the stocks have also been performing,” he said.

As earnings season progresses, investors are likely to remain focused on management commentary around inflation, input costs, demand recovery, and margin sustainability across sectors.

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Analysis: Mixed results from education funding boost

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Analysis: Mixed results from education funding boost

ANALYSIS: Not everyone is happy with the allocated budget for the state’s education infrastructure sector.

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Elon Musk's X fined for not complying with Australia's child protection laws

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Elon Musk's X fined for not complying with Australia's child protection laws

The social media giant will pay A$650,000 plus legal costs, ending a three-year legal saga.

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