Business
IFS Warns of Covid-Era Decline
Britain’s young workers are quietly slipping out of the labour market at a pace not seen since the pandemic, and economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies are warning that ministers can no longer treat the slide as a passing wobble.
Fresh analysis from the IFS, published ahead of the latest Office for National Statistics labour market release, shows the share of 16- to 24-year-olds on a UK payroll has fallen by 4.3 percentage points since December 2022, a drop of roughly 330,000 young people. Payrolled employment in the age group now stands at 50.6 per cent, down from 54.9 per cent three years earlier.
To put the scale in context, the Covid-19 shock pulled youth employment down by 6.5 points, and the 2008 financial crisis prised away 5.4 points relative to the pre-crisis trend. The current decline, in other words, is no longer a rounding error, it is approaching the territory of a full-blown labour market crisis, but without the obvious headline-grabbing trigger that accompanied the last two.
The consequences are already visible in the so-called Neet figures, those not in education, employment or training. The cohort has swelled from 760,000 at the end of 2022 to roughly 960,000 by the close of last year, closing in on the one-million mark that policymakers had long treated as a symbolic red line.
A scarring effect that outlasts the slump
Jed Michael, author of the IFS report, did not mince his words. “The fall in youth employment across the UK is likely to be setting off alarm bells among ministers, not least because we know that unemployment early in one’s career can have lasting negative consequences,” he said.
That so-called “scarring effect” is well documented. Graduates and school leavers who enter the workforce during a downturn typically earn less, change jobs more often and reach senior pay grades later than peers who began in benign conditions. The hit is not just personal: lost productivity, weaker tax receipts and higher benefits bills follow young people through their working lives.
Michael’s caveat, however, is one ministers ought to dwell on. “While it does not seem to be down solely to a temporary cyclical downturn in the economy, more evidence is needed to understand the roles of minimum wage, youth mental health, AI and other factors,” he added. “Without this evidence, expensive policies to reduce the Neet rate are shots in the dusk, if not the dark.”
An unusually structural shock
The UK has historically been a star performer in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development league tables for youth employment. That advantage is eroding, and the data suggests something more than a standard cyclical slump is at work.
The pain is sharpest among 22- to 24-year-olds, typically graduates and college-leavers stepping onto the first rung of the career ladder. Employment in that group has dropped by 4.8 points in three years. The 18- to 21-year-olds have fared better, down only 1.1 points, while 16- and 17-year-olds have seen a 7.3-point slide that the IFS attributes largely to vanishing casual and part-time work alongside studies.
Geographically, the slump is broad rather than concentrated. Payrolled employment among the young has fallen by at least three points in two thirds of the UK’s regions and nations, and the share of 18- to 24-year-olds claiming out-of-work benefits has risen across the board. Cyclical downturns tend to land unevenly; this one is hitting almost everywhere.
The IFS flags two potential structural culprits worth watching: the rapid uptake of artificial intelligence in white-collar entry-level work, and the well-documented decline in youth mental health. Business Matters has previously reported on how AI and rising employer costs have already wiped out close to a third of UK entry-level vacancies since the launch of ChatGPT, a shift that disproportionately closes the door on first jobs.
On the minimum wage question, a long-standing battleground in the youth employment debate, the IFS is more cautious. Its central estimates do not point to a “sizeable effect” from recent wage floor increases, suggesting that broader structural factors are doing most of the heavy lifting.
A call to action, not a counsel of despair
Jonathan Townsend, UK chief executive at The King’s Trust, which co-funded the report, said the findings should sharpen minds in both Whitehall and the boardroom.
“These findings should concern anyone who cares about young people’s futures,” he said. “Too many young people are already out of work, education or training, and this analysis suggests we cannot simply assume the problem will correct itself as economic conditions improve.”
“This challenge is not impossible to fix. The message is that reversing the rise in young people out of work or education will take concerted action, a better understanding of what is driving it, and the right support for young people at the right time.”
Townsend added: “For an organisation whose vision is to help end youth unemployment, that is a clear call to action. We urgently need to understand what is pulling more young people away from work and education.”
The Government has begun moving in that direction, most recently with £3,000 grants for employers willing to hire unemployed young people who have spent at least six months on benefits. Whether such targeted subsidies are enough to offset what looks increasingly like a structural shift, driven by automation, wage costs and a generation’s fragile mental health, is the question the IFS has now put squarely on ministers’ desks.
For Britain’s SMEs, which collectively employ the lion’s share of young workers, the message is sobering. A generation locked out of the labour market today will be a smaller, less productive, less confident pool of talent tomorrow. The cost of inaction, the IFS suggests, will be paid not in a single Budget cycle but over the working lifetime of an entire cohort.
Jamie Young
Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.
When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.
Julian Lin is a financial analyst. He finds undervalued companies with secular growth that appreciate over time. His approach is to look for companies with strong balance sheets and management teams in sectors with long growth runways.
Julian is the leader of the investing group Best Of Breed Growth Stocks where he only shares positions in stocks which have a large probability of delivering large alpha relative to the S&P 500. He also combines growth-oriented principles with strict valuation hurdles to add an additional layer to the conventional margin of safety. Features include: exclusive access to Julian’s highest conviction picks, full stock research reports, real-time trade alerts, macro market analysis, individual industry reports, a filtered watchlist, and community chat with access to Julian 24/7. Learn more.
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Gold prices in Thailand experienced extreme volatility on June 10, 2026, with 38 revisions. The day concluded with a sharp THB2,450 drop, prompting investor and consumer caution.
Key Points
- Gold prices on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, experienced significant intraday volatility.
- The Gold Traders Association recorded 38 price adjustments before the market’s final close.
- Prices dropped sharply by THB2,450 from the previous day, leading to investor and consumer scrutiny.
Volatile Trading Day Culminates in Sharp Decline
Gold prices on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, experienced extreme volatility, marked by an unprecedented 38 successive price revisions announced by the Gold Traders Association. This dynamic trading environment persisted throughout the day, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty for market participants. The day’s trading concluded with a significant downward correction at the 5:11 PM market close, indicating a pronounced shift in market sentiment during the latter part of the trading session.
Substantial Price Drop Impacts Market
The sharp decline observed at the close of trading represented a considerable loss for gold holders, with the price falling by a total of THB2,450 compared to the preceding day’s closing value. This substantial price movement prompted widespread attention from both investors, who are closely assessing the implications for their portfolios, and consumers, who are monitoring the affordability of gold. The significant drop underscores the sensitivity of gold prices to various market forces and investor behavior.
Investor and Consumer Vigilance
Following the day’s pronounced price fluctuations and the significant drop, a heightened sense of vigilance is evident among both investors and consumers. The latest market data, specifically the 38th announcement of gold buying and selling prices, serves as a critical reference point for understanding the immediate impact of the day’s trading. This close monitoring is crucial for making informed decisions in the wake of such a volatile trading period and anticipating future price movements.
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The General Services Administration (GSA) on Wednesday announced the sale of the Old Post Office Building located at 1100 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C.
The building was previously the Trump International Hotel from 2016 to 2022 until the Trump family firm sold the leasing rights for $375 million. The hotel reopened later in 2022 as the Waldorf Astoria Washington D.C., under the management of Hilton.
GSA said that its sale of the building included terms that “permanently secured public access to the iconic clock tower while establishing strong protections for the building’s architectural heritage through a binding preservation covenant.”
The deal also includes a dedicated fine arts covenant that will retain the American public’s ownership of artwork within the facility, including Robert Irwin’s “48 Shadow Planes” and a historic Benjamin Franklin Statue.
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The Old Post Office Building is a recognizable landmark on Pennsylvania Avenue. (Kevin Carter/Getty Images / Getty Images)
GSA’s sale is moving forward under the terms of the existing ground lease, which gives BDT MSD Partners, a merchant bank, the right of first offer.
The Wall Street Journal reported that BDT & MSD Partners acquired the building and land for $80 million, according to people familiar with the matter. The report noted the bank is discussing selling the property for a total of $400 million.
Hilton currently has a long-term agreement in place with the hotel to operate it as the Waldorf Astoria, and that arrangement would continue with a new leaseholder, the Journal reported.
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The Old Post Office Building contains historic art, including a statue of Benjamin Franklin. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
The Old Post Office Building was completed in 1899 and originally served as the headquarters for the U.S. Post Office Department and the post office for Washington, D.C.
It is listed in the National Register of Historic Places and its Romanesque Revival architecture makes it one of the most recognizable buildings on Pennsylvania Avenue, featuring a prominent clock tower and atrium. The facility is also located near the White House and other Washington, D.C. landmarks.
The Waldof Astoria, the former Trump International Hotel at the Old Post Office Building in Washington, D.C., as seen on Aug. 18, 2022. (Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
According to GSA’s announcement, before the property was redeveloped into a hotel, taxpayers were absorbing about $6 million a year in losses on the building.
Since then, there has been over $250 million in private sector capital invested in the property and taxpayer revenues in the last decade, including the current sale, are expected to exceed $110 million.
GSA has listed dozens of other federally-owned properties for sale since early last year as the Trump administration looks to reduce federal spending on underutilized office space and real estate.
David Herzog
Ladies and gentlemen, my name is David Herzog, and I am the Chair of the Board of Directors of Aegon Limited. On behalf of Aegon, I welcome you to Aegon’s 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. I hereby open the meeting. I’m pleased to welcome our shareholders participating in this meeting today.
Let me introduce the people present with me here at the table. Mark Ellman, Chair of the Compensation and Human Resource Committee; Lard Friese, Executive Director and CEO; Duncan Russell, our Chief Financial Officer; and Bieke Debruyne, Company Secretary. The other members of the Board of Directors as well as Director nominee, Ms. Leni Boeren are present here as well.
Also present here today, Onno Van Klinken, our General Counsel; Yves Cormier, Head of Investor Relations; and [Sonya Natia], the principal representative of the company. I hereby appoint Bieke as Secretary of this general meeting. She will keep minutes of today’s meeting. Before we continue, I would like to make a few remarks. Shareholders who have been registered through the e-voting portal prior to the start of the meeting and who are participating in a virtual manner have been directed automatically to the Lumi environment, in which they can vote and ask questions. To accommodate live voting and keeping in mind a short delay in the live stream, the voting is now open and will remain open until the last voting item on the agenda.
Voting results will be shown at the end of the meeting. To ensure a constructive dialogue with all
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