Key takeaways

• Sui is down 10% on Friday, extending its decline for the fifth consecutive day.
• The technical outlook for SUI is bearish, with a risk of a steeper decline toward $1.00.

Sui (SUI) is down roughly 10% on Friday, continuing a five-day decline this week as retail interest in the token wanes. 

The broader market is shifting focus away from underperforming layer-1 assets, and technical indicators suggest a potential double-digit drop toward $1.00.

Weakness in derivatives signals sell-side dominance

SUI is also losing traction in the derivatives market. According to CoinGlass, SUI futures Open Interest (OI) fell 10.5% over the past 24 hours to $727.97 million, reflecting a reduced notional value of outstanding contracts. 

In the same period, $7.2 million in positions were liquidated, with $7. million coming from long positions—indicating strong sell-side pressure.

Technical outlook: Will SUI drop below $1?

The SUI/USD 4H chart is bearish and efficient as Sui is down by 10% in the last 24 hours. At press time, SUI is trading below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.1558 and the lower Bollinger Band at $1.1442, showing short-term bearish bias. 

The token remains above the 200-period EMA at $1.0270, suggesting that the broader recovery structure is still intact despite waning momentum.

Momentum indicators indicate that the bears are still in play. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 46, below the midline, while the MACD histogram remains in negative territory, implying that rebounds may face persistent selling pressure.

If the bearish trend persists, the bulls would encounter the first support at the 200-day EMA at $1.0270 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.9972.

A daily close below this level could see SUI approach the prior cycle low near $0.8815.

However, if the bulls regain control, SUI could rally towards the first resistance level at $1.2171. An extended rally could see SUI hit the upper Bollinger Band near $1.2900, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.2947.

SUI’s technical structure shows deteriorating momentum, and traders should monitor both spot and derivatives markets for signs of further downside or potential relief rallies.

Regulators are being drawn into a dispute between traditional energy markets and Hyperliquid, the DeFi exchange behind the HIP-3 platform. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have urged U.S. authorities to rein in Hyperliquid’s expansion into commodity markets. Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources familiar with regulatory discussions, reported that executives from ICE and CME view Hyperliquid’s energy-linked on-chain derivatives as exposing energy markets to insider trading, price manipulation, and other risks.

The concerns highlighted by ICE and CME center on the platform’s anonymous and unregulated structure, which Bloomberg describes as a potential vector for sanctions evasion in critical markets such as oil and gas. The report underscores a broader tension: as traditional markets increasingly flirt with on-chain infrastructure, regulators are weighing how to preserve market integrity while not stifling innovation.

Key takeaways

• ICE and CME are pressing regulators to curb Hyperliquid’s foray into energy-linked on-chain derivatives, citing insider trading and price manipulation risks.
• Hyperliquid’s HIP-3, launched in January 2025, enables builder-deployed perpetual futures for any electronically traded asset class by staking 500,000 HYPE tokens.
• Open interest in HIP-3 markets surpassed $2.5 billion by May, signaling growing participation in on-chain commodity instruments.
• The HYPE token has seen notable momentum, rising from roughly $20 to around $44 at the time of publication, with notable short-term upside touted by market observers.

HIP-3 and the floodgates of on-chain commodities

Hyperliquid introduced HIP-3—referred to as “Builder-Deployed Perpetuals”—in January 2025. The model lets any user who stakes 500,000 HYPE, the platform’s native token, construct perpetual futures markets for virtually any electronically traded asset class. In practice, this framework accelerates the migration of traditional market mechanics onto the blockchain, extending the reach of on-chain derivatives into energy-linked products that previously existed only in centralized venues.

The move aligns with a broader industry trend: significant portions of traditional finance are exploring or migrating to on-chain infrastructure, challenging the clear boundary between centralized exchanges and decentralized platforms. HIP-3 markets have drawn substantial attention from traders and liquidity providers, as evidenced by rising open interest and sustained activity, with DeFi data aggregators noting growth through May. The upshot for the market is twofold: expanded access to on-chain derivatives for energy-related assets, and heightened scrutiny from regulators wary of opacity and cross-border implications.

Market response and investor sentiment

Investor reaction to HIP-3 has been pronounced. After HIP-3’s launch, the HYPE token posted significant appreciation. The token surged by more than 58% within three days of the market’s expansion, moving from a roughly $20 threshold to around $38, and was trading near $44 when this report was prepared. Market observers have pointed to the token’s structure, including a 97% allocation of trading fee revenue back into HYPE buybacks, as a driver of demand and price strength over time.

In March, well-known market commentator and investor Arthur Hayes forecast that HYPE could reach as high as $150 per token by August, driven by sustained demand for commodities-linked, on-chain derivatives and the potential to siphon volumes from centralized exchanges. While such forecasts reflect a particular bears-and-bulls perspective, they underscore the degree to which HIP-3 and the broader Hyperliquid ecosystem have captured attention from traders seeking exposure to energy-market dynamics via decentralized channels.

Open interest for HIP-3 markets has continued to climb since inception, with figures showing more than $2.5 billion at the height of May activity, according to DeFiLlama data. This level of liquidity suggests growing confidence among participants in the viability of builder-deployed perpetuals as a mechanism to access energy and other commodity exposures on-chain, even as regulators deliberate how such platforms should be overseen within the broader financial system.

What this means for the crypto and energy markets

The clash between Hyperliquid’s expansion and the concerns voiced by ICE and CME highlights a decisive moment for the intersection of crypto, DeFi, and traditional energy markets. On one hand, HIP-3 represents a deliberate attempt to democratize the creation of perpetual futures, enabling market participants—from retail traders to sophisticated institutions—to design and access new liquidity pools for asset classes previously confined to fiat-native markets. On the other hand, the reliance on a decentralized, semi-anonymous framework raises legitimate questions about market integrity, price discovery, and sanction risk in essential sectors such as oil and gas.

Regulators, for their part, appear poised to weigh potential safeguards or restrictions as Hyperliquid continues to grow. The Bloomberg report suggests that conversations are ongoing, with no immediate regulatory consensus in sight. For investors and builders, the key questions are how HIP-3 markets will be regulated going forward, what risk controls, disclosure standards, or licensing requirements might emerge, and how these dynamics could affect liquidity, funding rates, and on-chain hedging capabilities in energy markets.

Meanwhile, the broader market will be watching how Hyperliquid balances growth with compliance, and whether other traditional financial players will follow the same path toward on-chain commodity exposure. The next developments—regulatory guidance, potential policy shifts, and updates from Hyperliquid about risk controls—will likely shape the pace and shape of continued innovation in on-chain derivatives.

As Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 experiment unfolds, readers should monitor regulatory updates and platform-rules disclosures, as well as metrics on open interest, trading volumes, and the health of the buyback program. The outcome will influence not only the viability of builder-deployed perpetuals but also the broader narrative around the integration of real-world assets with decentralized finance.

Bitcoin fell to $78,600 on May 15 as bond yields surged to a 12 month high, rattling risk markets.

The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.54% on May 15, its highest point since May 2025, after hotter than expected CPI and PPI data stoked fears of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The 30-year yield crossed 5% while the 2-year broke above 4%.

Inflation and yields hit crypto and equities

Bitcoin fell as low as $78,600, down roughly 4% from Thursday’s $82,000 high, before stabilising slightly above $79,000. The selloff spread to equities, with the Nasdaq 100 opening 1.7% lower and the S&P 500 falling 1.2%.

“The 10Y Note Yield is now above 4.50% for the first time since June 2025,” the Kobeissi Letter noted on X. “Rate hikes are now the base case for the Fed’s expected next move.”

Crypto-linked equities were hit harder. Coinbase dropped nearly 6%, Circle fell 7.4% and Strategy slid 5.4%. Bitcoin miners MARA Holdings and Hut 8 each lost around 7%, while Cipher Mining fell nearly 9%.

CME FedWatch showed more than 44% probability of a Fed rate hike by December, a sharp reversal from expectations of multiple rate cuts at the start of 2026. Gold fell 2.5% while oil rose 3%, crossing $100 per barrel as energy inflation compounded yield pressure.

April CPI came in at 3.8% while PPI matched 2022 levels at 6%, according to official data. Futures traders who began 2026 pricing two or more Fed cuts now expect rates to stay elevated through at least the first half of 2027.

Bitcoin remains below its 200-day moving average heading into the weekend, caught between a regulatory tailwind from the Clarity Act’s Senate progress and a macro headwind from rising yields and accelerating inflation.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the two biggest exchanges for energy-linked commodities, are pressuring US regulators to clamp down on the Hyperliquid decentralized exchange’s expansion into commodity markets.

Executives from both companies say that Hyperliquid’s energy-linked onchain derivatives create insider trading and price manipulation risks, according to Bloomberg, which cited unnamed sources familiar with the ongoing talks with US regulators.

ICE and CME cited the “anonymous” and “unregulated” nature of Hyperliquid as major risks to critical energy markets, like oil and gas, which could be used by state actors to circumvent sanctions, the report added.

Daily trading volume for HIP-3 perpetual futures markets. Source: DeFiLlama

Hyperliquid introduced HIP-3, also known as “Builder-Deployed Perpetuals,” in January 2025, which allows anyone who stakes 500,000 HYPE tokens, the platform’s native cryptocurrency, to build perpetual futures markets for any electronically traded asset class.

The deployment of HIP-3 represents a broader trend of traditional financial markets coming onchain, as the line between blockchain-based infrastructure and traditional market architecture continues to erode. 

Related: Why is Hyperliquid’s HYPE token price up 23% in one day?

Hyperliquid’s token price surges following the introduction of HIP-3

The price of HYPE jumped by over 58% within three days of the launch of HIP-3. The token rose from a low of about $20 to over $38, and is trading at about $44 at the time of publication.

In March, market analyst and crypto investor Arthur Hayes forecast that HYPE could hit $150 per token by August, driven by demand for commodities-linked onchain derivatives instruments.

The HYPE token’s price action. Source: CoinMarketCap

“Hyperliquid, the dominant perp DEX, is the largest revenue-generating project that isn’t a stablecoin,” he said.

The exchange also dedicates 97% of trading fee revenue to HYPE token buybacks, which boosts demand and raises the token’s price over time, according to Hayes.

“If the market believes that HYPE can continue siphoning volumes away from centralized exchanges and add new features to accelerate revenue growth, then HYPE can pump in absolute terms,” he added.

Open interest for HIP-3 markets has continued to rise since their inception, climbing to over $2.5 billion in May, according to data from DeFiLlama.

Magazine: Guide to the top and emerging global crypto hubs: Mid-2026

TLDR

• ENPH reached a new 52-week peak at $52.95 on Thursday, climbing more than 10% intraday
• The solar technology company’s shares have climbed 32% over the last seven days and 50% since January
• Robust interest in the company’s latest GaN-powered IQ9S-3P commercial microinverter is capturing market attention
• A brief suspension of reciprocal solar tariffs between the U.S. and China provided tailwinds for renewable energy stocks
• Emerging speculation about Enphase’s role in AI data center infrastructure is fueling additional bullish momentum

Enphase Energy (ENPH) shares reached a 52-week pinnacle of $52.95 during Thursday’s trading session, vaulting more than 10% higher in just one day. This surge propelled the stock’s year-to-date performance to approximately 50%, with an impressive 32% advance coming in the past week alone.

Enphase Energy, Inc., ENPH

Multiple factors aligned to fuel this remarkable ascent. Chief among them: surging demand for the company’s innovative GaN-based IQ9S-3P commercial microinverter, engineered to accommodate solar panels rated up to 770 watts and integrate with three-phase electrical systems.

Buyers are accelerating equipment purchases to capitalize on critical federal tax incentive deadlines. This sense of urgency is directly converting into robust order volumes and heightened investor enthusiasm.

Enphase recently finalized a safe harbor arrangement with a prominent U.S. solar and battery financing firm. This partnership is projected to deliver approximately $52 million in revenue from IQ9 Microinverter sales spanning both residential and commercial installations.

The broader renewable energy market also provided momentum. A temporary suspension of reciprocal solar tariffs between Washington and Beijing alleviated supply-chain anxieties and elevated sentiment throughout the solar industry.

Additionally, Nextpower released impressive quarterly results. That performance created positive ripple effects across the solar sector and provided Enphase with extra upward momentum.

AI Data Centers Enter the Picture

Among the emerging narratives surrounding Enphase is its potential expansion into powering AI data centers. Investors are viewing this opportunity as a significant long-term growth catalyst, prompting reassessments of the company’s earnings trajectory.

While no official announcements regarding specific data center partnerships have materialized, the concept is building momentum and appears to be influencing how analysts evaluate the stock’s prospects.

Analysts are reexamining their financial models. Several market observers suggest that current consensus price projections may not adequately capture the company’s evolving growth narrative, although widespread formal target revisions haven’t yet emerged.

Analyst Views Remain Mixed

The Street isn’t unanimously optimistic. Barclays maintained an Underweight stance and reduced its price objective, referencing lower shipment projections. Jefferies similarly decreased its target amid softer second-quarter revenue expectations, while preserving a Buy recommendation.

Enphase projected Q2 revenue in the $280 million to $310 million range, with energy storage systems accounting for roughly $85 million. Management acknowledged an anticipated $25 million shipment shortfall during the second quarter.

InvestingPro identified the stock as trading beyond its Fair Value, positioning it among the more stretched valuations in the current market according to their metrics. The price-to-earnings multiple currently registers at 50.78.

The trailing 1-year return remains negative at -3.45%, indicating the recent rally hasn’t completely offset prior-year declines.

Average daily trading activity hovers around 6.17 million shares, with the company’s market capitalization now approaching $6.89 billion.

The technical sentiment indicator continues to flash a Sell signal, despite the compelling short-term price momentum.