Crypto World
Bitcoin Longs Jump as US Macro Data Weakens; Could $82K Be Next?
Bitcoin price action cooled after a brief flirtation with the upper sub-legendary zone around $78,000, with traders refraining from a clean breakout toward $82,000 despite improving risk appetite in some corners of the market. A mix of macro headwinds and an ongoing outflow dynamic from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs kept the path to a sustained rally uncertain, even as institutional-focused traders increased their bullish exposure in the near term.
Data from market-tracking platforms show top traders lifting their Bitcoin long positions relative to shorts, a signal that the $76,000 support floor remains key, but not a guarantee of immediate upside. At the same time, broader fundamentals are weighing on the upside potential: a shaken macro backdrop, a softer near-term retail outlook, and concerns about the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy have tempered breakout expectations. This environment poses questions for whether the market can sustain momentum beyond the 76k–82k zone in the weeks ahead.
Key takeaways
- Top traders boosted their long exposure, reinforcing the $76,000 support floor as a credible near-term base, with the long-to-short ratio rising to a two‑week high.
- Macro pressures and persistent ETF outflows temper near-term upside, keeping a full breakout to $82,000 unlikely without a shift in the broader risk backdrop.
- Bitcoin’s price dynamics showed a small Coinbase premium/discount mismatch, alongside about $2.07 billion in net outflows from US-listed spot ETFs since mid‑May, signaling tepid institutional demand.
- Market structure signals—neutral perpetual funding rates and a rebalancing of long and short positions—suggest bulls are building slowly, but a decisive move remains data-dependent.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded around the mid-to-high $70,000s on Thursday, borrowing momentum from a period of tentative resilience but failing to sustain gains beyond the $78,000 area. The week’s readings point to a market where professional traders are more confident on a floor near $76,000, even as the broader macro stage keeps the door open to pullbacks if risk appetite fades.
The core question for traders remains: can constructive positioning overcome the macro drag? The answer appears nuanced. On one hand, top-tier traders have tilted longer, betting that the current support zone will hold and that favorable or stable macro conditions can unlock a move toward higher levels. On the other hand, outsized external pressures—rising energy costs, a cautious consumer sector, and the potential for tighter monetary policy—keep the door ajar for a retest of prior resistance levels rather than a clear, immediate breakout.
Trader positioning and the price backdrop
Market analytics indicate a shift in sentiment among the most active Bitcoin traders. The long-to-short ratio at major venues has climbed, signaling more optimistic positioning on the baseline assumption that $76,000 acts as a robust magnet for prices in the near term. At Binance, for several days the balance tilted modestly toward longs, while at OKX, traders trimmed shorts in a similar time frame. Despite these shifts, the net reading across exchanges has remained roughly neutral, underscoring a cautious, not exuberant, stance among professional participants.
The posture among top traders matters because it can foreshadow how price action unfolds when the market encounters fresh catalysts. A firming of long exposure around a sturdier support zone can translate into quick price stabilization if momentum builds. Conversely, if macro headwinds intensify or demand remains fragile, even a solid base may not translate into a sustained up-leg.
Macro headwinds and the policy outlook
A portion of the market’s hesitance stems from a confluence of macro factors. Retail demand has shown fragility, with major consumer-facing firms’ guidance reflecting the squeeze from higher costs and inflation. Walmart shares slid around 7% after guiding for 2027 with a cautious tone, citing persistent cost pressures, including elevated oil prices, and highlighting that low-income consumers are navigating financial distress. This dynamic feeds into a broader retail outlook that can cool optimism for a rapid reacceleration in consumer-led demand for risk assets.
Oil markets have remained tight, with Brent crude holding above $95 per barrel as supply dynamics and Middle East tensions persist. The geopolitical backdrop compounds inflation concerns and leaves little room for aggressive easing by policymakers in the near term. In the United States, these dynamics have fed expectations of potential rate adjustments, even as market participants weigh the timing and magnitude of any future hikes.
On the policy front, futures-implied probabilities point to a non-trivial chance of rate hikes by September. The market-implied odds for higher rates have risen in recent weeks, with traders pricing in around a 37% probability of a rate increase by September, according to tools that aggregate futures data. This marks a shift from the prior month and contributes to the sense that the monetary base could continue expanding in a manner that affects liquidity and risk assets differently than in a period of looser policy.
Flows, pricing signals, and what to watch next
Trading dynamics around price discovery also reflect evolving demand and liquidity conditions. The Bitcoin price on Coinbase traded with a slight premium/discount signal relative to other major exchanges quoted in USDT, marking a nuanced snapshot of cross-exchange demand. In parallel, net flows out of US-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds have remained negative, with about $2.07 billion exiting since May 12. These outflows reduce the immediate availability of price-supportive demand from a broad retail and institutional ETF channel, in turn complicating the path to a sustained breakout.
Meanwhile, the structure of Bitcoin futures markets shows a more balanced stance. The perpetual futures funding rate has hovered in a neutral zone since early this week, signaling that funding costs are not systematically biasing the market toward easy long accumulation. The current annualized rate around 7% contrasts with a mid‑May spike where shorts were paying as much as 13% to carry their positions, a sign that speculative leverage swung more aggressively in the direction of selling earlier in the month.
Taken together, the data suggest that while bulls have a foothold at the $76,000 level, a clear move toward $82,000 hinges on a shift in the broader macro environment—whether from a cooling inflation regime, a rebound in consumer demand, or a dovish tilt in policy expectations that can draw back the rate-hike narrative. Absent such a change, the market may continue trading in a range with modest upside potential rather than a decisive breakout.
In practical terms, investors and traders should monitor several developing signals: (1) any sustained improvement in macro indicators that can tilt Fed expectations toward a softer stance, (2) changes in ETF inflows or new product launches that could re-engage broad retail or institutional demand, and (3) price action around the $76,000–$78,000 region that could act as a fulcrum for the next directional move. With the balance of momentum currently dependent on external forces, the near-term risk-reward favors a cautious posture rather than a bold bet on a rapid ascent to new highs.
What remains uncertain is how quickly macro and policy drivers will align with on-chain and market sentiment shifts. Traders will be watching whether the $76,000 floor proves resilient in the face of evolving headwinds or whether fresh catalysts—positive macro data, renewed ETF inflows, or a shift in risk appetite—can unlock a move toward higher ground in the weeks ahead.
As the market edges forward, the crucial test will be whether the sum of these signals can overcome the layered frictions weighing on Bitcoin’s ascent. The coming data prints and policy signals will be decisive for whether the market can stage a meaningful breakout beyond current resistance or stay tethered to the more modest gains built around a stabilized base.
Crypto World
Solana treasury firm Solmate raises $11.4M in premium stock offering
Nasdaq-listed Solmate Infrastructure, a Solana-focused treasury and infrastructure company, has raised about $11.4 million via a registered direct offering of Class B common stock.
Summary
- Solmate is issuing 2,298,000 Class B shares at $4.97 each
- The registered direct offering is expected to raise roughly $11.4 million
- The deal is slated to close around May 27, 2026, subject to closing conditions
According to Businesswire, Solmate Infrastructure is issuing a total of 2,298,000 shares of Class B common stock in a registered direct offering priced at $4.97 per share. The company expects to raise approximately $11.4 million in gross proceeds before fees and expenses, with the transaction structured as a directed placement led by its new CEO and a board member at what the company describes as a premium to the recent market price.
The move comes as Solana’s (SOL) real world assets has hit the $2 billion milestone.

The offering is expected to close on or about May 27, 2026, according to the company, subject to customary closing conditions, including the satisfaction of Nasdaq and regulatory requirements. Solmate said it plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may include further development of its Solana infrastructure initiatives, treasury operations, and balance sheet strengthening.
Solana treasury strategy and balance sheet, what does it mean for Solmate?
Solmate Infrastructure, which trades on Nasdaq under the ticker SLMT, positions itself as a “Solana infrastructure company” and digital asset treasury vehicle with a strategic focus on Abu Dhabi. The company emerged from Brera Holdings PLC’s transformation into a Solana-centric treasury and crypto infrastructure business, backed by a $300 million private placement in 2025 involving investors such as the Solana Foundation, RockawayX, and ARK Invest.

In a March 2026 update, Solmate reported holding 1,235,834 SOL tokens as of February 28, 2026, along with approximately $7.1 million in crypto-related securities and around $9.1 million in cash. Based on a SOL price of about $91.58 at the time, the company estimated the market value of its digital asset treasury at roughly $129.4 million, and calculated a total digital asset treasury value of approximately $1.43 per fully diluted share.
Solmate has emphasized that it has not had to sell its SOL holdings to fund operations, arguing that the combination of SOL, crypto securities and cash leaves it “well-positioned from a liquidity and capital perspective.” The new $11.4 million capital raise adds another layer of funding without forcing the firm to liquidate Solana exposure, effectively giving it more runway to build out Solana staking, validator and infrastructure projects in Abu Dhabi and beyond.
Dilution, valuation and Solana exposure, how does Solmare stack up to other validators?
The registered direct offering does dilute existing shareholders—2,298,000 new Class B shares on top of roughly 82 million fully diluted shares is not trivial—but the company is signaling that it prefers equity capital at a premium price over selling down its SOL stack. For a business explicitly marketed as a Solana treasury and infrastructure play, maintaining SOL exposure is central to the equity story.
Solmate’s earlier disclosures highlight plans to run high-performance Solana validators in the UAE and to develop yield-generating infrastructure tied to Solana’s ecosystem. In that context, the new funding helps bridge the gap between a volatile token treasury and the more mundane but necessary costs of running data centers, validators and corporate overhead in a public-company framework.
The company’s stock has been extremely volatile—at one point jumping 500% after its $300 million funding round and Solana‑backed pivot—underscoring how tightly SLMT trades as a geared play on Solana sentiment. With roughly $129.4 million in digital asset treasury value and a much lower equity market capitalization, Solmate has pitched itself as a way for public-market investors to gain levered exposure to Solana via a listed vehicle.
For Solmate, the $11.4 million raise is small compared to its headline treasury figures but significant for day-to-day operations. For investors, it is another reminder that in this corner of the market, balance sheets are as much about tokens as they are about cash—and that equity raises, even at a premium, are part of the cost of holding the SOL line.
Crypto World
Crypto PAC Backed by Anchorage and Chainlink Announces Endorsements for 2026 Midterms
A political action committee (PAC) that claimed to “support candidates working to advance digital asset and blockchain policy in the United States” announced its picks for the 2026 election cycle, potentially influencing key races with money from the crypto industry.
In a Thursday notice, the Blockchain Leadership Fund said it had endorsed ten candidates for the 2026 US midterm elections, four in the Senate and six in the House of Representatives. Chainlink Labs and Anchorage Digital announced the launch of the PAC in March amid other committees that spent heavily in the 2024 US election cycle, like Fairshake.
The PAC’s picks included Republicans Barry Moore, Kurt Alme and Jon Husted for US Senate races in Alabama, Montana and Ohio, respectively, and Houston Gaines, Jim Kingston and Jon Bonck for House runs in Georgia’s 10th district, Georgia’s 1st district and Texas’ 38th district, respectively. It will also support Democrats Angie Craig’s run for the US Senate in Minnesota and Adrian Boafo, and Christian Menefee and Don Davis for House races in Maryland, Texas, and North Carolina.
“We believe constructive bipartisan participation is critical to ensuring the US remains a global leader in financial technology and the future of finance,” said an Anchorage Digital spokesperson. “We remain committed to supporting responsible innovation and constructive policymaking that brings digital assets further into the regulatory perimeter and strengthens trust in the ecosystem.”

Funding for Blockchain Leadership Fund. Source: FEC
The committee, which is a hybrid PAC set up to allow contributions directly to candidates as well as independent expenditures, said it may announce support for other candidates “who support responsible digital asset policy” before the midterm elections in November. As of Thursday, filings with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) showed only $175,000 in funding for the Blockchain Leadership Fund: $100,000 from Anchorage and $75,000 from Chainlink.
Related: Georgia primary to test crypto PAC’s support for Democratic candidate
The Blockchain Leadership Fund’s endorsements came after some of its chosen candidates won their respective primaries on Tuesday. Kingston and Gaines won Republican primaries in Georgia, and Moore will go to a runoff for Alabama’s US Senate seat after failing to secure a majority of the vote.
All three already benefited from a combined $8.5 million in media spending by the Defend American Jobs PAC, a Fairshake affiliate, which also poured about $350,000 into media to support Bonck in Georgia. Another PAC affiliated with Fairshake, Protect Progress, spent more than $4.1 million to support Menefee in his Texas runoff against incumbent Al Green and more than $2 million on media for Boafo in Maryland.
Crypto spending ahead of Texas Senate race, Trump gets involved
While Menefee and Green are set to go head-to-head next Tuesday, money from the crypto industry is also flowing into Texas over a Republican primary for one of the state’s US Senate seats.
The Fellowship PAC, an $11 million committee funded by Cantor Fitzgerald and Anchorage Digital, reported to the FEC on Wednesday that it would be spending $500,000 to support Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for US Senate. The filing came more than a month after Fellowship reportedly withdrew funding for media on Paxton in response to pressure from Republican leaders toward Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, connected to Cantor Fitzgerald.

Truth Social post endorsing Ken Paxton for US Senate. Source: Donald Trump
US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he would be supporting Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn. State Representative James Talarico won a March Democratic primary, and will face off against the Republican candidate to be decided after a Tuesday runoff between Paxton and Cornyn.
Magazine: 5 tech predictions the mainstream media got horribly wrong
Crypto World
US Regulators Move on Prediction Markets With ETF Pause and NHL Pact
Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins said fund sponsors agreed to delay several event contract ETFs tied to prediction markets while the agency seeks public input.
Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the National Hockey League announced a memorandum of understanding aimed at policing event contracts built around professional hockey.
Parallel Oversight of Prediction Markets
The announcements show the SEC and CFTC moving in step to handle a sector that has expanded faster than regulators have written rules.
Roundhill Investments, GraniteShares, and Bitwise’s PredictionShares brand have filed roughly two dozen event contract ETF proposals since February.
The funds would package binary bets on elections, recessions, and sports outcomes into brokerage-friendly wrappers.
Atkins framed the delay as a process question rather than a rejection. The new SEC chair said staff will seek public input on how the agency should respond to recent market changes.
CFTC and NHL Integrity Pact
The CFTC-NHL agreement formalizes information sharing and coordinated monitoring between the agency and the league.
Designated representatives will communicate regularly on integrity issues and share data confidentially.
Our agreement with the CFTC enhances the comprehensive integrity monitoring systems already in place and strengthens our ability to identify, deter, and address potential risks,” the agency stated.
NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman attached the statement to the CFTC release. The league already runs licensing deals with Kalshi and Polymarket, giving each platform settlement feeds for hockey contracts.
CFTC Chair Mike Selig signed a similar pact with Major League Baseball in March and has previously warned on fraud inside prediction market venues.
Joint Approach Under New Leadership
The two agencies signed their own coordination memorandum in March 2026 covering product definitions and emerging technology.
Both chairs are appointees of the current administration who favor what they call innovation with guardrails.
ETF assets have tripled since 2019, according to Atkins. Prediction market open interest reached $1.2 billion in weekly volume earlier this year.
Retail investors being able to access event contract ETFs now hinges on the public comment process.
The post US Regulators Move on Prediction Markets With ETF Pause and NHL Pact appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Tokenized funds hold 5% of stablecoin market JPMorgan
JPMorgan says tokenized funds make up just 5% of the stablecoin market despite offering higher yield.
Summary
- JPMorgan said in a May 21 report that tokenized money market funds represent only about 5% of total stablecoin market supply.
- Stablecoins retain dominance as the default cash instrument across exchanges, DeFi protocols and cross-border payment systems.
- JPMorgan expects tokenized funds to grow faster than stablecoins but sees a 10-15% ceiling absent meaningful regulatory reform.
JPMorgan published a report on May 21 finding tokenized funds account for just 5% of total stablecoin market supply despite offering higher yield. The bank said stablecoins remain the default cash instrument across trading, collateral and payments.
The report found stablecoins dominate because they are seamlessly integrated into centralised exchanges, DeFi protocols and cross-border payment systems. Tokenized funds require additional subscription and redemption steps, limiting their use in high-frequency on-chain activity.
Why stablecoins keep winning despite lower yields
JPMorgan pointed to a streamlined SEC process introduced this year to simplify on-chain money market fund issuance. However, the bank described these developments as “marginal” and unlikely to overcome stablecoins’ structural liquidity advantage.
Crypto.news has reported on JPMorgan’s JLTXX fund launch on Ethereum in May 2026, structured to meet GENIUS Act reserve requirements for stablecoin issuers. Crypto.news has also tracked JPMorgan’s earlier MONY fund launch in December 2025, seeding its first move onto a public blockchain.
What it would take to change the balance
JPMorgan’s ceiling of 10-15% depends on regulatory changes the bank called unlikely in the near term. Without rules allowing tokenized funds to function like stablecoins across exchanges and payment rails, yield alone cannot close the gap.
“Investors are increasingly looking for ways to modernize liquidity management without changing the fundamentals of what they own,” said John Donohue, Head of Global Liquidity at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
The stablecoin market stands at roughly $240 billion, meaning a 10% tokenized fund share would represent $24 billion in assets. Crypto.news has also noted JPMorgan’s view that tokenization will reshape the funds industry, though the bank’s own data suggests the stablecoin moat runs deeper than the yield gap implies.
Crypto World
Crypto Leverage Still Down 50% After October’s Black Friday Crash, CoinGecko Shows
Crypto leverage remains sharply below its 2025 peak months after October’s market-wide liquidation shock, according to CoinGecko’s State of Crypto Perpetuals Report 2026.
Total crypto open interest fell from a peak of $210 billion on October 7, 2025, just before the October 10 liquidation event, to $99.09 billion by April 2026. That leaves market-wide open interest more than 50% below its high, showing that traders have not rebuilt leverage at the same pace.
Open Interest Remains More Than 50% Below Its Peak
The decline comes as centralized perpetual exchanges continue to dominate crypto derivatives trading. However, their activity has weakened in 2026.
The top 11 perpetual CEXs averaged $7.11 trillion in monthly trading volume in 2025. That fell to $4.69 trillion across the first four months of 2026, a 34% drop.
Binance and OKX remain the largest venues. In early 2026, Binance held 33% of perp CEX market share, while OKX held 15%.
Perp DEXs Gain Ground Despite CEX Dominance
Still, the market shift toward on-chain derivatives remains visible. Perp DEXs recorded $6.38 trillion in trading volume in 2025, up from $1.50 trillion in 2024.
Their momentum has cooled this year, but volumes remain well above early 2025 levels. The top 12 perp DEXs averaged $611.57 billion in monthly volume in 2026, compared with $531.65 billion in 2025.
Hyperliquid remains the clearest example of the shift. The platform processed $190.28 billion in April volume, placing it close to BingX and well ahead of KuCoin.
Perp DEXs have also gained ground in open interest. Their share rose to 13.5% by the end of April 2026, while CEX share fell from 96.4% at the start of 2025 to 86.5%.
Meanwhile, CEXs continue to compete through aggressive listings. MEXC added 879 new perp contracts from January 2025 to April 2026, while BingX added 565.
Newer DEXs are also gaining attention. Pacifica, Extended, and Variational have taken share from older platforms, helped by points programs that may keep airdrop-driven traders active.
The data suggests leverage has reset after October. CEXs still control most of the market, but DEXs now hold enough volume and open interest to shape the next phase of crypto derivatives trading.
The post Crypto Leverage Still Down 50% After October’s Black Friday Crash, CoinGecko Shows appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
XRP whale collects $224,500 on low volatility bet
An XRP whale collected $224,500 in options premiums betting the token stays near $1.40 through June 26.
Summary
- A large trader executed a short strangle on Deribit on May 21, selling 1.5 million contracts each of the $1.40 XRP call and put option.
- The trade collects $224,500 in upfront premium and returns the full amount if XRP remains close to $1.40 through the June 26 expiry.
- XRP has traded between $1.30 and $1.50 for roughly 60% of 2026, making the flat-price bet consistent with recent price history.
An XRP whale executed a short strangle on Deribit on May 21, selling 1.5 million contracts each of the $1.40 call and put options. The trade hit the tape as a single privately negotiated block to avoid moving the market.
By selling both the call and the put at the same strike, the trader provided insurance against sharp price moves in either direction. The $224,500 upfront premium is the maximum profit and is kept in full if XRP stays near $1.40 through the June 26 expiry.
How the short strangle works and what the whale risked
XRP has spent roughly 60% of 2026 trading between $1.30 and $1.50. The May 29 monthly options expiry has max pain at $1.40, according to Laevitas data, reinforcing that level as a near-term gravitational centre.
XRP options open interest has climbed back above 50 million contracts for the first time in nearly two months, according to Laevitas data, signalling renewed activity ahead of the May 29 monthly expiry.
Why the Clarity Act is the main threat to this bet
Crypto.news has explored why the Clarity Act matters more to XRP than to almost any other asset. A Senate floor vote arriving sooner than expected could push XRP sharply through $1.50, turning the short call into a loss.
Crypto.news has tracked how the May 15 options expiry pulled XRP back from $1.55 toward $1.45, consistent with max pain mechanics.
What happens if XRP breaks out of the $1.40 range
The short strangle becomes unprofitable when XRP moves far enough that losses exceed the $224,500 premium. A move above the strike plus premium on the upside, or below it on the downside, turns the position into a net loss.
Given the Clarity Act’s uncertain Senate timeline and macro pressure on Bitcoin near $77,000, the bet amounts to a conviction that nothing consequential happens to XRP before late June. The XRP (XRP) price page tracks live movements as that conviction is tested.
Crypto World
CFTC, NHL Sign MOU to Advance Prediction Market Regulation
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), under the sole leadership of Republican Michael Selig, announced a memorandum of understanding with the National Hockey League to protect the integrity of professional hockey and maintain fair and transparent prediction markets. The agreement is designed to enable information-sharing and coordinated action to deter insider trading, fraud, and other abuse on event contracts tied to hockey outcomes, while reinforcing the CFTC’s claim of exclusive jurisdiction over platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
In a Thursday statement, Selig said the move aims to shield prediction-market users from illicit activity as the CFTC continues to exercise its regulatory remit. The arrangement follows a pattern seen with Major League Baseball, which announced a similar pact in March and designated Polymarket as its Official Prediction Market Exchange. According to Cointelegraph, the NHL accord mirrors that MLB framework, signaling a broader alignment between leagues and federal regulators on market integrity standards.
Regulators note that the NHL agreement would allow the CFTC and the league to share information and coordinate to safeguard the integrity of both professional hockey and related event contracts on prediction-market platforms. With the 2026-27 NHL season slated to begin in September, Kalshi and Polymarket already listed event contracts tied to the Stanley Cup playoffs, which began in April.
Key takeaways
- The CFTC and the National Hockey League formalize information-sharing and joint oversight to protect hockey-related prediction-market contracts from manipulation and abuse.
- The pact reinforces the CFTC’s assertion of exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets and follows prior enforcement actions against state authorities over such platforms.
- Live event contracts for major postseason hockey are present on Kalshi and Polymarket, indicating market readiness ahead of the upcoming season.
- Polymarket has filed to list combinatorial outcome contracts, signaling product expansion within the regulatory framework.
Regulatory coordination between the CFTC and the NHL
Under the memorandum of understanding, the CFTC and the NHL will share information and coordinate actions to protect market integrity around professional-hockey–related event contracts. This collaboration underscores the CFTC’s position that prediction markets fall within its exclusive regulatory remit, a stance the agency has enforced through actions against state authorities pursuing similar market structures in recent years. The objective is to deter insider trading, fraud, and other abuses that could erode user trust and undermine market reliability.
These arrangements illustrate how federal regulators are seeking to align sports leagues with robust compliance and monitoring frameworks for prediction markets. By integrating league operations with federal oversight, the ecosystem aims to reduce cross-market abuses while preserving legitimate hedging and informational use cases for participants.
Leadership and governance at the CFTC
The CFTC’s leadership situation remains a focal point for industry observers. Michael Selig serves as the agency’s chair and sole commissioner, with the expectation that the commission will eventually comprise five members. However, the panel has operated without a full slate since December. Lawmakers have pressed for nominations to fill the remaining seats, and while several oversight efforts have been advanced, President Donald Trump had not publicly announced any nominations as of Thursday. House committee leaders have urged action, citing the CLARITY Act as a framework to clarify agency governance and authorities in relation to prediction markets.
Product development and market structure
Polymarket filed a product self-certification letter with the CFTC Secretary Christopher Kirkpatrick, signaling its intention to list combinatorial outcome contracts. This step would permit the platform to bundle two or more underlying event contracts into a single instrument, expanding the design space for prediction-market participants while remaining subject to regulatory review. The filing underscores how product innovation within prediction markets continues to evolve under the supervision of the CFTC, balancing new capabilities with the need for transparent disclosure and enforceable standards.
From a practical perspective, the move matters for exchanges, liquidity providers, and corporate compliance teams that rely on clear governance around sports-linked prediction markets. As enforcement and licensing considerations shape product offerings, institutions will monitor how cross-state oversight, consumer protections, and platform registration requirements develop in tandem with market innovation.
Observers note these regulatory dialogues illustrate a broader trend toward formalized collaboration between sports leagues and federal regulators to manage risk, protect investors, and sustain market integrity in prediction markets. The evolving framework will influence how platforms structure products, how leagues engage with licensed venues, and how compliance teams assess exposure across multi-jurisdictional operations.
The closing dynamics to watch include how remaining CFTC seats are filled, how states respond to ongoing enforcement narratives, and how Polymarket’s combinatorial-contract plans proceed under ongoing scrutiny. Together, these elements will shape the regulatory landscape governing US prediction markets and their interface with professional sports ecosystems.
Crypto World
Harvard Offloads Entire $87M ETH Position
Harvard Management Company, the entity that manages Harvard University’s endowment fund, sold all of its Ether (ETH) holdings after just one quarter, according to its Q1 2026 United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing.
The endowment no longer holds the $87 million in BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust exchange-traded fund (ETF) shares, which it held in Q4 2025, according to its Q1 2026 SEC filing.
Harvard also reduced its exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) in Q1 2026, offloading about 2.3 million Bitcoin ETF shares. The endowment fund still holds more than 3 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, valued at nearly $117 million.

Harvard’s asset holdings as of Q1 2026. Source: SEC
The change in holdings follows a turbulent year for ETH, which has fallen by over 50% from the all-time high of nearly $5,000 reached in August 2025, and several high-profile departures at the Ethereum Foundation (EF), the organization that oversees the ecosystem.
Related: Dartmouth endowment invests in Solana ETF, holds $14M in crypto exposure
Key personnel leave the Ethereum Foundation, as the organization receives flak
Julian Ma and Carl Beek, two researchers at the EF, recently announced their departure from the organization, bringing the total number of departures in 2026 to eight.
Josh Stark, a longtime researcher and former project manager at the Foundation, also left the organization in April. The departures follow several organizational and leadership changes at the EF, which began in January 2025.

Source: Josh Stark
In March, the EF published a mandate outlining its goals and its focus on upholding decentralization, privacy, open-source software code and censorship resistance.
However, the mandate and the overall stance of the organization were met with mixed reactions from the crypto community.
The core pillars outlined in the EF’s mandate are “great” and “worth fighting for,” according to journalist Laura Shin, but the EF should also focus on tokeneomics and raising the price of its native asset, she added.
“The Ethereum Foundation seems to want to sit back on its laurels and act above it all when all its competitors are all getting down and dirty on the field to gain market share,” Shin said.
Magazine: Why is Ethereum Foundation selling? BTC futures warning signs: Market Moves
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On-Chain Data Reveals Bitcoin Miners Are Not Yet Convinced the Market Has Reached Its Bottom
TLDR:
- Binance Pool miner reserves are declining, showing operational selling pressure remains active in the market.
- The MPI staying negative confirms miners are selling below historical averages, reducing sharp dump risks.
- A Puell Multiple below 1.0 shows miner revenues remain historically weak, reflecting ongoing financial stress.
- Combined on-chain data suggests Bitcoin faces continued sideways consolidation before any confirmed bottom forms.
Bitcoin miners are showing a cautious but measured stance toward current market conditions. On-chain data reveals that miners are neither panic-selling nor aggressively accumulating.
Instead, they appear to be in a wait-and-see phase. Three key metrics — Binance Pool Miner Reserve, the Miner Position Index (MPI), and the Puell Multiple — paint a consistent picture.
Together, they suggest that Bitcoin has not yet confirmed a true market bottom, and that sideways price action may continue for some time.
Binance Pool Reserves and What Miner Behavior Is Telling the Market
The decline in Binance Pool Miner Reserve data is one of the more telling signals right now. Miners within Binance Pool are continuing to reduce their holdings.
Because Binance Pool controls a significant portion of global hash rate, its actions tend to reflect broader miner psychology before the wider market responds.
Falling reserves typically mean that operational selling is still ongoing. However, this selling does not appear to be driven by fear or urgency. According to CryptoQuant analyst @PelinayPA, “the decline in reserves still implies BTC supply entering the market. However, the weak MPI suggests these sales are not large enough to trigger a collapse.”
This distinction matters. Supply entering the market does not automatically translate into a sharp price decline. The pace and volume of that supply is what determines market impact. In this case, the data points to controlled, need-based selling rather than a broader miner capitulation.
As a result, the current selling pressure is best understood as an ongoing but modest headwind. It limits the likelihood of a strong upward breakout while also reducing the risk of a sudden price collapse.
Puell Multiple and MPI Reflect Continued Miner Stress
The Miner Position Index remaining in negative territory reinforces this cautious reading. Negative MPI values indicate that miners are selling less than their historical average — not more.
This rules out panic selling as a near-term risk. However, it also reflects that miners are not yet confident enough to hold aggressively.
The Puell Multiple adds another layer to this analysis. It is currently sitting below the 1.0 threshold, which means miner revenues remain historically weak.
Miners are still under financial pressure, and that pressure is prompting the modest selling activity seen in the reserve data.
Technically speaking, a Puell Multiple below 1.0 has historically aligned with periods near cycle bottoms. However, the absence of an aggressive accumulation signal suggests that miners do not yet see the conditions as definitively bottomed. They are not moving to build positions, which typically happens once miners believe the worst is behind them.
This combination of metrics points to a market that is stabilizing rather than recovering. The analyst notes that this type of behavior — cautious holding with moderate selling — is commonly observed near bottom formations.
That said, miners themselves do not appear to be acting on any conviction that a bottom has already been confirmed.
The broader takeaway for investors is straightforward. Short-term price pressure has not fully cleared. Bitcoin appears likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, with neither a major breakdown nor a strong rally supported by the current miner data.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Supply Squeeze Tightens as Institutional Demand Meets Old-Whale Selling
TLDR:
- Strategy now holds 843,738 BTC, adding nearly 25,000 coins last week at over $80,000 per coin.
- Spot ETFs absorbed ~19,000 BTC across April, with single-session inflows hitting $630M on May 1st.
- Forty-seven dormant wallets have moved 38,400 BTC in 2026 — equal to three full months of ETF demand.
- Once old-whale distribution exhausts itself, institutional buying gains no counterweight, pointing sharply upward.
Bitcoin’s price has held firm near $78,000 despite record institutional buying, raising questions about what is keeping the market anchored.
On-chain analysts tracking wallet movements and ETF inflows have identified a pattern that explains the flat price action. Major players like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and spot ETF issuers are absorbing enormous supply.
Yet dormant wallets from the early Bitcoin era are quietly offsetting that demand through OTC channels.
Institutional Accumulation Reaches Historic Levels in May
Strategy added 24,869 BTC last week at an average price of $80,985 per coin. The company now holds 843,738 BTC with a total cost basis of $63.8 billion.
On May 17, Michael Saylor posted “₿ig Dot Energy” on social media. Independent trackers estimate another 15,466 BTC was accumulated that week, pending a formal 8-K filing.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs added roughly 19,000 BTC across nine trading sessions in April alone. BlackRock’s IBIT has now surpassed $66 billion in cumulative inflows since launch.
On May 1 alone, ETF products absorbed $630 million in a single session. The first two trading sessions of May combined for $1.1 billion in total inflows.
Post-halving miners now produce approximately 13,500 BTC each month. With institutions absorbing close to 50,000 BTC per month, the supply math points strongly upward.
However, price has stayed pinned between $78,000 and $82,000 for weeks. The Market Capitulation Oscillator has remained in negative territory throughout this period.
The divergence between demand and price movement puzzled many market participants. Standard dashboards showing only ETF inflows and corporate buying gave an incomplete picture.
The missing piece was found in dormant wallet activity and OTC settlement data. Analysts tracking long-term holder cohorts began connecting the dots.
Old-Whale Distribution Is the Hidden Force Behind the Chop Zone
Analytics firm Alphractal’s Whale vs. Retail Delta tracks who is buying and who is selling in each session. Over 14 of the last 21 trading sessions, retail investors showed net buying activity.
Meanwhile, whale-side readings showed net selling during those same sessions. That pattern matches distribution behavior, not a capitulation signal.
On May 11, a dormant wallet from 2013 moved 500 BTC. Whale Alert data shows that 72% of moves from wallets dormant more than seven years in 2026 resolved as OTC transactions rather than exchange sells.
Since the halving, 47 wallets holding coins for more than five years have moved. The combined volume from that cohort in 2026 has reached 38,400 BTC.
That figure equals roughly three months of ETF demand. These coins are being routed off-screen through OTC desks and absorbed quietly.
ETF buyers are, in effect, providing exit liquidity for early Bitcoin holders. The price stays flat because supply and demand are nearly balanced through this mechanism.
According to Alphractal, the setup will shift once old-whale distribution exhausts itself. Metrics like Liveliness, Coin Days Destroyed, and Days at Profit will converge when that supply source dries up.
At that point, institutional demand has no counterweight and price pressure turns sharply upward. Until then, the $78,000–$82,000 range is likely to hold as the dominant chop zone.
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