Global macro uncertainty, persistent geopolitical tensions, and sticky energy prices continue to dominate investor sentiment, even as Indian equities have shown resilience from their March lows. In a detailed conversation with ET Now, market expert Vikas Khemani from Carnelian Asset Management outlined why the next phase for markets may be more of consolidation than a sharp breakout, while still maintaining a cautiously constructive long-term outlook.

Earnings steady, but global shocks yet to reflect fully

Responding to concerns around earnings momentum and near-term market direction, Khemani noted that while corporate results have broadly held up, the real impact of global disruptions is still ahead.

“Earnings have been by and large okay but that was more the effect was before the war. The impact of the war is yet to be felt in the energy prices, supply chain disruptions, all those things in my opinion will be felt in Q1 earning and to that extent market is well prepared for that. I do not think market is really expecting any spectacular earning in Q1 and I think that at this point in time broadly everything looks alright except the fact that our energy bill which is very high, very dependent on the war getting over, oil prices coming down,” he said.

He added that inflation, interest rates, currency movement, and even US yields are all linked to the trajectory of energy prices.

“No major fall, but a prolonged drag” scenario
On whether markets could see a sharp correction, Khemani was relatively reassuring.
“I do not expect much fall to be honest unless something again worsens in the oil, escalates like I said the single biggest factor right now which is playing on everybody’s mind and on the economic front as well is the energy price, so it will just hang in there.”He also pointed to improving global supply expectations, including potential diplomatic developments and increased oil availability, which could stabilise prices.

India’s macro resilience remains intact
Despite global headwinds, Khemani remains constructive on India’s domestic growth story.

“If you see last quarter’s number across the board, volume growth has been very good in consumer, in automobiles, in insurance premiums, credit growth all those things are pointing towards the right direction. Our investment cycle has really held on and I do not think that is changing anytime in a hurry.”

He emphasised that while cost pressures and supply chain disruptions persist, there is no structural break in India’s growth trajectory.

Manufacturing and capex themes still strong
Addressing concerns around rising freight costs and global instability, Khemani reaffirmed his long-term faith in structural themes such as manufacturing.

“In fact, some of the plays on manufacturing side turns out to be good because of the currency depreciation. Demand drivers get stronger because every crisis also has a positive side of it… exporters do tend to benefit and they do tend to get volume growth compete better.”

He reiterated that the India growth story remains intact despite short-term macro pressure.

Mid and smallcaps: stock-picking is key
On mid and smallcap opportunities, Khemani stressed that the real alpha lies in bottom-up selection rather than index-level assumptions.

He said: “We are fully invested. Every sector if you see has large, mid, and smallcap segments… we are able to identify companies which can double their earning in three to four years’ time directionally and looks good.”

He highlighted opportunities across manufacturing, pharma, CDMO, BFSI, and even select IT names.

IT sector: contrarian opportunity emerging
Khemani noted that sentiment in IT is gradually shifting, potentially creating a contrarian entry point.

“In my opinion probably time has come where the narrative in IT is changing… IT is not going to go away because of AI… so I think that could be a sector which could be there.”

He pointed out that valuations remain reasonable and earnings growth could stay in the mid-teens range.

Pharma and healthcare: still a bottom-up story
On pharma, he remained positive but cautious about broad-based calls. “It has always been bottom up. I mean, we still remain very positive on the pharma, CDMO, or healthcare space… but yes, I think still lot rally left.”

NBFCs: stock-specific approach critical
Discussing NBFCs, Khemani emphasised selectivity, highlighting his fund’s exposure to Aditya Birla Capital.

“Aditya Birla Capital is one of our largest holding has been 3.5x in last three years… we invested in Aditya Birla Capital when it was Rs 100 one time book… so it is again more stock specific bottom up.”

On rising global market returns and investor FOMO, Khemani offered a strong counterview.

“I think it is a very in my opinion stupid idea to look for invest or diversify out of FOMO. It is very natural recency bias plays as a very big bias in every investor’s mind.”

He stressed that India has historically been one of the strongest long-term equity performers and diversification should be goal-based, not trend-driven.

Outlook
Khemani’s overall message is clear: markets are not on the verge of a major breakdown, but neither are they poised for a straight-line rally. The key variable remains energy prices, which will influence inflation, rates, currency, and global risk appetite.

Until that stabilises, markets may remain in what he calls a “holding pattern” — resilient, but restrained.

Former UN Security Council president Kishore Mahbubani states that the US lacks a clear strategy to manage China’s resurgence as a great power. He emphasizes the need for the US to develop a comprehensive approach to compete with China effectively, understanding its rising influence, without resorting to confrontation, to ensure stability and maintain global balance of power.

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China’s rapid economic growth and geopolitical influence suggest that the nation is gaining unstoppable momentum. Over the past few decades, China has transformed from a largely agrarian society into a global industrial powerhouse, lifting millions out of poverty and becoming the world’s second-largest economy. This expansion is driven by substantial investments in infrastructure, technology, and education, positioning China as a dominant force in industries such as artificial intelligence, 5G, and renewable energy.

Politically and strategically, China asserts its influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, expanding its presence across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Its military capabilities have also strengthened, signaling a readiness to defend national interests and reshape regional dynamics. Many analysts believe that China’s determination and economic resilience make it increasingly difficult for other nations to contain or sideline its ambitions.

Despite international challenges and tensions, China’s internal reforms and technological advancements suggest its trajectory remains upward. As it continues to innovate and expand its global footprint, the idea that China can “no longer be stopped” is gaining traction among policymakers and observers. This rising power is poised to significantly influence the future international order, shaping global economics and geopolitics for decades to come.

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Indian equity markets continue to move within a narrow consolidation range, with benchmark indices finding it difficult to break key resistance levels. Despite this, sector rotation is keeping stock-specific action alive, even as overall momentum remains muted. According to market expert Ajit Mishra from Religare Broking, the broader setup remains sideways, with traders likely to prefer range strategies over aggressive directional bets.

Nifty stuck in consolidation range; upside capped near 24,000

Ajit Mishra noted that the market has been consolidating for the second straight week, with Nifty repeatedly failing to cross the 23,800–24,000 zone. On the downside, he sees strong support emerging in the 23,400–23,250 region, which continues to attract buying interest. This has resulted in a defined trading band of roughly 600–800 points, keeping the index largely range-bound. While the trend remains sideways, he believes the upside is currently capped unless a breakout occurs above resistance levels.

Bank Nifty relatively stronger; expiry strategies in focus
Bank Nifty, according to Mishra, has shown comparatively better strength, gaining around 1 percent and gradually approaching the 54,300–54,350 resistance zone. A sustained move above this level, he said, could provide the necessary momentum for further upside in both Bank Nifty and Nifty. However, given the expiry week, he suggested traders avoid aggressive long positions and instead consider defined-risk strategies like bull call spreads, such as buying the 23,800 call and selling the 24,000 call in Nifty, and a similar structure in Bank Nifty using 54,000 and 54,500 strikes.

Stock-specific opportunities across sectors

On the stock-specific front, Mishra highlighted that opportunities remain broad-based rather than concentrated in a single sector. He observed that market participation is rotational in nature, with IT witnessing a rebound after weakness, though its sustainability remains uncertain. At the same time, sectors such as pharma, healthcare, energy, and auto continue to show relative strength. Capital market-related stocks are also outperforming, reflecting renewed investor interest in the space.
Within this framework, he pointed to Angel One as a breakout candidate after a prolonged consolidation phase, suggesting fresh long positions with a stop-loss near 320 and upside targets in the 378–385 range. He also highlighted Trent as an attractive accumulation opportunity after a recent pause, expecting further upside if the stock sustains above key levels, with positional targets placed in the 4500–4600 zone.
Pharma sector remains a buy-on-dips theme
On the pharma index, Mishra maintained a constructive outlook, describing it as a buy-on-dips opportunity after a strong breakout from a long consolidation phase. He noted that despite intraday declines, the broader trend remains positive. Stocks such as Glenmark, Lupin, Dr Reddy’s, Sun Pharma, and Biocon continue to show relative stability, and any further corrections, in his view, should be seen as accumulation opportunities rather than weakness.

Outlook
Overall, the market appears to be in a pause phase after recent gains, with limited directional breakout in indices. However, strong sector rotation and selective stock momentum continue to provide trading opportunities. For now, traders are likely to remain focused on range-bound strategies and stock-specific positioning rather than index-level aggressive bets.

Britain’s biggest car manufacturer has, for the first time in its history, cracked open the door to assembling Range Rovers and Land Rover Defenders on American soil, a move that would have been unthinkable a generation ago, and one that has been forced squarely onto the agenda by Donald Trump’s tariff regime.

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), the Solihull-based jewel of the West Midlands automotive cluster, has confirmed it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Stellantis, the Franco-Italian-American group behind Vauxhall, Peugeot, Fiat, Jeep and Chrysler, “to explore opportunities to collaborate on product development in the United States”. Both companies were tight-lipped on the detail, but the framing in their joint statement — references to “potential transactions” and “complementary capabilities”, left City analysts in little doubt that something rather more significant than a polite engineering chat is on the table.

For an industry that has spent the past 18 months trying to second-guess the White House, the timing is hardly accidental. Under the UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal struck in May 2025, British carmakers can export a maximum of 100,000 vehicles a year to America at a preferential 10 per cent tariff rate; anything above the quota is hit with a punitive 27.5 per cent levy, according to the House of Commons Library briefing on US trade tariffs. For JLR, which produces well in excess of 300,000 cars a year and has traditionally sent roughly a third of them across the Atlantic, the maths are brutal. The cap is, in effect, a glass ceiling on its single most lucrative export market.

PB Balaji, JLR’s chief executive, framed the move as strategic evolution rather than retreat. “As we continue to evolve JLR for the future, collaboration will play an important role in unlocking new opportunities,” he said. “Working with Stellantis allows us to explore complementary capabilities in product and technology development that support our long-term growth plans for the US market.”

His opposite number at Stellantis, Antonio Filosa, was similarly measured: “By working with partners to explore synergies in areas such as product and technology development, we can create meaningful benefits for both sides while remaining focused on delivering the products and experiences our customers love.”

From solihull to Ohio?

The industrial logic is compelling. JLR has already paused shipments to the US once this year as the tariffs bit, exposing the fragility of a model that depends on shipping high-margin luxury SUVs across the Atlantic. Stellantis, by contrast, runs an enviable network of assembly plants across Michigan, Ohio, Illinois and Indiana, much of it underutilised since the wider slowdown in mid-market American demand and a strategic retreat from its all-electric ambitions, as chronicled in the group’s recent €22bn write-down.

Plugging JLR’s premium product into spare Stellantis capacity would, in theory, give both sides something they badly need. JLR would get a tariff-free route to the world’s most profitable luxury car market. Stellantis, whose Jeep, Ram and Chrysler brands sit firmly in the mass-market middle, would gain access to a slice of the premium pie that has long eluded it. The Wrangler-style Defender pairing in particular looks an obvious fit; the Range Rover, retailing at well over $100,000 in the US, less obviously so.

What both companies will be acutely aware of is that the perceived “Britishness” of the marques is itself part of the product. When Ford bought Jaguar for $2.4 billion in 1989 and added Land Rover from BMW for $2.7 billion in 2000, eventually merging them into JLR in 2002, the American giant pointedly refused to build either brand on its home turf. To do so, Ford executives privately argued, would dilute the very quintessence customers were paying for. Tata of India, which scooped up the business in 2008 when Ford was on its knees in the global financial crisis, has stuck broadly to the same line, investing heavily in UK production, including the Defender it now also builds in Nitra, Slovakia, which is itself caught by the Trump tariffs.

Takeover by stealth?

The City will inevitably read the small print of any MoU through the lens of consolidation. JLR is, by global standards, a minnow, the largest automotive employer in Britain, certainly, but a fraction of the size of Volkswagen, Toyota or indeed Stellantis. The argument that its long-term independence is unsustainable in an industry being reshaped by electrification, Chinese competition and tariff walls has been doing the rounds in Mayfair for the best part of a decade.

The language of the memorandum, “potential transactions”, “synergies”, “complementary capabilities”, is precisely the vocabulary of deals that begin as joint ventures and end, several years later, in full-blown mergers. It would be a brave SME supplier in the West Midlands who bet against further integration in the medium term.

For Tata, the calculation is delicate. JLR remains a strategically important asset and a significant contributor to group profits. But the family-controlled Indian conglomerate has shown before, most notably with Corus, the former British Steel, that it is unsentimental about underperforming foreign acquisitions when the global economics turn. A US production deal that quietly evolves into a deeper relationship with Stellantis would, in that light, be neither a surrender nor a surprise.

The wider british picture

JLR is not alone in its predicament. Mini, Bentley, Rolls-Royce and Aston Martin all export a disproportionate share of their UK output to the United States, and all are now operating inside the same 100,000-vehicle British quota. None of them has the volume to justify its own American assembly line. If JLR, by far the largest of the group, succeeds in finding a tariff workaround through a partner, expect others to consider whether contract assembly inside the US, perhaps via the same Stellantis route, might be the only way to defend their American sales.

For the West Midlands, the political optics are uncomfortable. The Solihull plant remains the spiritual home of Land Rover and one of the largest manufacturing employers in the region. Any meaningful shift of premium production to the United States, even at the margins, will inevitably raise questions in Westminster about whether the UK has done enough to anchor high-value manufacturing onshore, particularly given the size of the public guarantees that have already flowed JLR’s way in the wake of last autumn’s cyberattack.

The official line from Coventry, of course, is that this is about growth in the US, not retrenchment in the UK. As ever in the car industry, the truth will be in the binding contracts that follow this opening, deliberately non-committal MoU, and in how aggressively Mr Trump’s trade negotiators decide to police the rules of origin around any vehicles that emerge with Range Rover or Defender badges on the bonnet.

For now, though, a Rubicon has been crossed. After more than 75 years of insisting that Range Rovers and Defenders could only be properly built within sight of a damp British hillside, Britain’s flagship luxury carmaker has formally acknowledged that the road to its biggest market may, in future, run through an American factory gate.

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