Business
Bank Nifty near key resistance zone; breakout above 54,300 crucial: Ajit Mishra
Nifty stuck in consolidation range; upside capped near 24,000
Ajit Mishra noted that the market has been consolidating for the second straight week, with Nifty repeatedly failing to cross the 23,800–24,000 zone. On the downside, he sees strong support emerging in the 23,400–23,250 region, which continues to attract buying interest. This has resulted in a defined trading band of roughly 600–800 points, keeping the index largely range-bound. While the trend remains sideways, he believes the upside is currently capped unless a breakout occurs above resistance levels.
Bank Nifty relatively stronger; expiry strategies in focus
Bank Nifty, according to Mishra, has shown comparatively better strength, gaining around 1 percent and gradually approaching the 54,300–54,350 resistance zone. A sustained move above this level, he said, could provide the necessary momentum for further upside in both Bank Nifty and Nifty. However, given the expiry week, he suggested traders avoid aggressive long positions and instead consider defined-risk strategies like bull call spreads, such as buying the 23,800 call and selling the 24,000 call in Nifty, and a similar structure in Bank Nifty using 54,000 and 54,500 strikes.
Stock-specific opportunities across sectors
On the stock-specific front, Mishra highlighted that opportunities remain broad-based rather than concentrated in a single sector. He observed that market participation is rotational in nature, with IT witnessing a rebound after weakness, though its sustainability remains uncertain. At the same time, sectors such as pharma, healthcare, energy, and auto continue to show relative strength. Capital market-related stocks are also outperforming, reflecting renewed investor interest in the space.
Within this framework, he pointed to Angel One as a breakout candidate after a prolonged consolidation phase, suggesting fresh long positions with a stop-loss near 320 and upside targets in the 378–385 range. He also highlighted Trent as an attractive accumulation opportunity after a recent pause, expecting further upside if the stock sustains above key levels, with positional targets placed in the 4500–4600 zone.
Pharma sector remains a buy-on-dips theme
On the pharma index, Mishra maintained a constructive outlook, describing it as a buy-on-dips opportunity after a strong breakout from a long consolidation phase. He noted that despite intraday declines, the broader trend remains positive. Stocks such as Glenmark, Lupin, Dr Reddy’s, Sun Pharma, and Biocon continue to show relative stability, and any further corrections, in his view, should be seen as accumulation opportunities rather than weakness.
Outlook
Overall, the market appears to be in a pause phase after recent gains, with limited directional breakout in indices. However, strong sector rotation and selective stock momentum continue to provide trading opportunities. For now, traders are likely to remain focused on range-bound strategies and stock-specific positioning rather than index-level aggressive bets.
The AvalonBay Communities Inc. Park Loggia condominium, center, is reflected in a building in New York, U.S.
Mark Abramson | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The biggest ever merger of real estate investment trusts — the combination of Equity Residential and AvalonBay, announced Thursday — has investors and analysts alike left with dropped jaws.
The all-stock merger will have a market capitalization of about $52 billion and a total enterprise value of approximately $69 billion, according to a release. It will create one of the largest real estate companies in the U.S., with more than 180,000 rental apartments.
“This combination creates a new and fundamentally stronger company with differentiated capabilities that will drive structurally superior cash flow generation, earnings and dividend growth, and value for shareholders,” said Benjamin Schall, CEO of AvalonBay.
Schall will become CEO of the newly formed company, and Equity Residential CEO Mark Parrell will retire when the transaction closes.
Allan Swaringen, president and CEO of JLL Income Property Trust, which manages about $90 billion of real estate investments globally for institutional clients and high-net-worth individuals, called the tie-up “unbelievable.”
“That they would merge is really incredible,” he said.
Swaringen noted that the stocks of both companies are trading at below their net asset values, a situation that makes them both ripe to be bought and privatized.
“I think this might be a defense against privatization. By putting themselves together, they’re almost too big to get bought,” Swaringen said.
He also noted the high cost of building technology, which residential tenants now demand – from online leasing to credit checking to delivering bandwidth and Wi-Fi. Consolidating could reduce those costs.
“Strategically, the rationale is straightforward: scale, liquidity, balance sheet efficiency and overhead synergies,” said David Auerbach, chief investment officer at Hoya Capital Real Estate.
Auerbach said he thinks this could be the first of more megadeals in the space.
“We have WAY too many Apartment REITs out there, and it’s a sector ripe for consolidation,” he wrote in emailed comments to CNBC.
Auerbach noted that the deal comes after a challenging stretch for apartment landlords, who have been dealing with sluggish rent growth due to the post-Covid construction boom that delivered a massive wave of new supply.
Neither Auerbach nor Swaringen said they expect to see any effect on rents. While the combined company’s market share might be growing in certain markets, they are still going to have to compete with the rest of the field. The apartment market is highly diversified, building to building, giving consumers a lot of options.
Regulatory and political scrutiny may arise, given the sheer size of the deal and the current drumbeat on housing affordability. But even after merging, the combined company will have a small market share.
“While there are no antitrust regulatory approvals needed, there is the political PR battle for which we think management well articulated [that] the combined company is < 3% market share and heavily invests in expanding housing,” wrote Alexander Goldfarb, senior analyst with Piper Sandler. “Ultimately, we believe the combined company needs to improve earnings growth beyond the one-time synergies to show bigger is actually more profitable.”
The BBC’s Michelle Fleury reports from Wall Street on recent government filings showing that in the first three months of this year thousands of stock market trades were made on behalf of President Donald Trump.
The trading includes shares in some of America’s biggest companies.
A spokesperson for the Trump Organization said that neither the president, his family or the company played any role in selecting or approving investments. They receive no advance notice of trading activity and provide no input regarding investment decisions or portfolio management, the statement said.
A seasoned consulting specialist at a leading Central Asian bank. The author behind Novo Capital brings half a decade of experience delivering strategic insight and analysis for the bank’s clientele within the private banking branch. Launching the career back in 2020 after graduating from a top CA university, the author developed a resilient methodology forged amidst global market volatility, focusing on corporate valuation, due diligence for investment opportunities, and crafting spot-on forecasts that guide long-term investment strategy. The goal of contributing to Seeking Alpha seems to be quite simple: ideas are worth discussing, and one can gain “alpha” only through gaining out-of-consensus information from opinions few professionals have nowadays. That’s exactly the reason Novo Capital was created.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MSFT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Chart Of The Day: Yes, The SpaceX Deal Is Enormous
Monadelphous has secured a swag of resources and renewables contracts worth a total of $120 million, including work at Fortescue’s Cloudbreak mine in the Pilbara.
The ASX-listed engineering and mining services contractor told the market on Friday it had locked in work with Rio Tinto, Fortescue and Port Waratah Coal Services.
Rio Tinto awarded a new five-year panel contract for mobile crane and lifting services across its Pilbara port and mine facilities, as well as a three-year contract to continue providing multidisciplinary sustaining capital services.
The company also secured the construction contract for a battery energy storage system at Fortescue’s Cloudbreak mine; the company’s third BESS project for Fortescue.
That work is expected to be completed in the second half of this calendar year.
And Monadelphous has been appointed to three-year panel for structural and mechanical services at Port Waratah Coal Services in New South Wales’ Port of Newcastle.
The works come after Monadelphous secured over $145 million in new bookings last month, including works with Rio, BHP, Queensland Alumina Limited and Harmony Gold.
Shares in Monadelphous were trading up 2.5 per cent at $30.07 at midday AWST on Friday.
Mark Pownall is joined by Tom Zaunmayr, Ella Loneragan and Sam Jones to discuss fracking in the Kimberley, the City of Perth’s dramas, a failed solar project, MinRes’ lithium revival, Victor Goh’s legal dramas, the OBH development pushed out again, Sorrento Beach project, data centres, and startups hit by the budget.
Earnings call transcript: Altri SGPS Q1 2026 sees profit slump amid storms
Markets rise and fall, booms come and go, and the world keeps ticking. Ultimately, I believe observing megatrends, as difficult as they can be to spot, let alone fully comprehend, can yield insights into the advance of human society, which in turn could pave the way for many useful investment insights. As society and technologies evolve, companies and other stakeholders will seize advantages. Figuring out which companies will take the best advantage of any given opportunities is not easy. I am especially interested in macrotrends, futurism, and increasingly, emerging technologies. However, as far as investing is concerned, it’s crucial to pay attention to the fundamentals, quality of leadership, product pipeline, and all the other details. In recent years, I have focused on marketing and business strategy, primarily for medium-sized companies and startups. I have worked in international development, including overseas for a foreign Prime Minister’s office, as well as non-profit work in the United States. Among other tasks, I evaluated startups and emerging industries/technologies. I have also moonlighted as a technology and economic news journalist. Now I’m looking to tie everything together. While my personal interests will always keep megatrends and technological developments in mind, I do believe fundamentals and technicals are vital to uncovering opportunities.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of LYFT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Business
Nifty Bank rises 650 points as report says RBI unlikely to hike rates to defend rupee; Axis, ICICI, HDFC shares jump up to 2%
The Reserve Bank of India has other levers to deploy and the options are on the table, which are being considered in coordination with the government, Reuters reported citing people familiar with the matter. Inflation continues to remain subdued, and this – not the currency- will guide RBI’s policy on rate hikes, the report added.
This comes as rupee dropped around 6% since the beginning of the raging war between Iran and US late in February, tumbling to a record low near 97 per dollar on Thursday. “There doesn’t seem to be an urgent need for the central bank to jump into rate hikes,” Reuters quoted a source as saying.
Also Read | RBI not in favour of rate hikes to defend rupee, prioritises inflation
Rate hike or no rate hike
Indonesia and Philippines have already raised rates as inflation and currency depreciation risks rise. Interest rate swap markets are pricing in at least 40 bps rate hikes by RBI over the next three months and more than 100 bps over the next year. The report quoted another source as saying that in order to defend the falling rupee, RBI will have to introduce steep rate hikes as smaller increases would have little impact while crimping demand.
Meanwhile, economists at Standard Chartered said in a note on Thursday that RBI is likely to start raising interest rates as early as June on increasing inflation risks from higher crude prices “We expect 50 bps of hikes, split equally between June and August. However, if there is no hike in June, the repo rate could be hiked by 50 bps in August,” it said.
Also Read | RBI rate hikes to start in June, says Standard Chartered
The Reserve Bank of India’s rate-setting panel is set to announce its rate decision on June 5, in its second meeting since the Iran war began. Last month, the RBI had said it would watch the duration and extent of the conflict-led disruptions.
Bank stocks jump
Banks are typically considered among the most exposed sectors to RBI’s repo rate changes. The report that the RBI is unlikely to increase rates may have boosted the stocks. AU Small Finance Bank shares were the top gainers on the index, jumping more than 2%. Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank shares gained around 2% each, while IndusInd Bank shares gained over 1%.
Bank of Baroda, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Federal Bank and Punjab National Bank (PNB) shares gained nearly 1%, while those of IDFC First Bank, Union Bank of India, State Bank of India (SBI) and Canara Bank shares recorded marginal gains.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Earnings steady, but global shocks yet to reflect fully
Responding to concerns around earnings momentum and near-term market direction, Khemani noted that while corporate results have broadly held up, the real impact of global disruptions is still ahead.
“Earnings have been by and large okay but that was more the effect was before the war. The impact of the war is yet to be felt in the energy prices, supply chain disruptions, all those things in my opinion will be felt in Q1 earning and to that extent market is well prepared for that. I do not think market is really expecting any spectacular earning in Q1 and I think that at this point in time broadly everything looks alright except the fact that our energy bill which is very high, very dependent on the war getting over, oil prices coming down,” he said.
He added that inflation, interest rates, currency movement, and even US yields are all linked to the trajectory of energy prices.
“No major fall, but a prolonged drag” scenario
On whether markets could see a sharp correction, Khemani was relatively reassuring.
“I do not expect much fall to be honest unless something again worsens in the oil, escalates like I said the single biggest factor right now which is playing on everybody’s mind and on the economic front as well is the energy price, so it will just hang in there.”He also pointed to improving global supply expectations, including potential diplomatic developments and increased oil availability, which could stabilise prices.
India’s macro resilience remains intact
Despite global headwinds, Khemani remains constructive on India’s domestic growth story.
“If you see last quarter’s number across the board, volume growth has been very good in consumer, in automobiles, in insurance premiums, credit growth all those things are pointing towards the right direction. Our investment cycle has really held on and I do not think that is changing anytime in a hurry.”
He emphasised that while cost pressures and supply chain disruptions persist, there is no structural break in India’s growth trajectory.
Manufacturing and capex themes still strong
Addressing concerns around rising freight costs and global instability, Khemani reaffirmed his long-term faith in structural themes such as manufacturing.
“In fact, some of the plays on manufacturing side turns out to be good because of the currency depreciation. Demand drivers get stronger because every crisis also has a positive side of it… exporters do tend to benefit and they do tend to get volume growth compete better.”
He reiterated that the India growth story remains intact despite short-term macro pressure.
Mid and smallcaps: stock-picking is key
On mid and smallcap opportunities, Khemani stressed that the real alpha lies in bottom-up selection rather than index-level assumptions.
He said: “We are fully invested. Every sector if you see has large, mid, and smallcap segments… we are able to identify companies which can double their earning in three to four years’ time directionally and looks good.”
He highlighted opportunities across manufacturing, pharma, CDMO, BFSI, and even select IT names.
IT sector: contrarian opportunity emerging
Khemani noted that sentiment in IT is gradually shifting, potentially creating a contrarian entry point.
“In my opinion probably time has come where the narrative in IT is changing… IT is not going to go away because of AI… so I think that could be a sector which could be there.”
He pointed out that valuations remain reasonable and earnings growth could stay in the mid-teens range.
Pharma and healthcare: still a bottom-up story
On pharma, he remained positive but cautious about broad-based calls. “It has always been bottom up. I mean, we still remain very positive on the pharma, CDMO, or healthcare space… but yes, I think still lot rally left.”
NBFCs: stock-specific approach critical
Discussing NBFCs, Khemani emphasised selectivity, highlighting his fund’s exposure to Aditya Birla Capital.
“Aditya Birla Capital is one of our largest holding has been 3.5x in last three years… we invested in Aditya Birla Capital when it was Rs 100 one time book… so it is again more stock specific bottom up.”
On rising global market returns and investor FOMO, Khemani offered a strong counterview.
“I think it is a very in my opinion stupid idea to look for invest or diversify out of FOMO. It is very natural recency bias plays as a very big bias in every investor’s mind.”
He stressed that India has historically been one of the strongest long-term equity performers and diversification should be goal-based, not trend-driven.
Outlook
Khemani’s overall message is clear: markets are not on the verge of a major breakdown, but neither are they poised for a straight-line rally. The key variable remains energy prices, which will influence inflation, rates, currency, and global risk appetite.
Until that stabilises, markets may remain in what he calls a “holding pattern” — resilient, but restrained.
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