Connect with us
DAPA Banner
DAPA Coin
DAPA
COIN PAYMENT ASSET
PRIVACY · BLOCKDAG · HOMOMORPHIC ENCRYPTION · RUST
ElGamal Encrypted MINE DAPA
🚫 GENESIS SOLD OUT
DAPAPAY COMING

Crypto World

Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs crushed by outflows as bond market stifles interest-rate reduction hopes: Crypto Daily

Published

on

Daily swings in the BTC-gold ratio in candlestick format. (TradingView)

It’s getting tough for crypto bulls.

Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), including ETFs, have fallen out of favor with investors as the U.S. Treasury market signals higher-for-longer interest rates.

Digital asset investment products recorded $1.47 billion in outflows last week, the second consecutive week of redemptions and the third-largest weekly outflow of 2026, according to CoinShares.

Bitcoin funds led the charge, dropping $1.32 billion in their largest weekly outflow of the year. The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs alone witnessed an outflow of $1.26 billion last week, following the preceding week’s $1 billion exodus. Investors pulled $223 million from ether (ETH) funds.

Advertisement

Other altcoin ETFs also experienced a material moderation in flows.

“Cumulative outflows over the two weeks now stand at US$2.54bn, suggesting the Iran-related risk-off has deepened and broadened despite continued CLARITY Act progress,” James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said in a report shared with CoinDesk.

The outflows occurred as bond-market traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher under new Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Their positioning is evident from the section of the Treasury market curve, identified by the difference between two- and 10-year yields, which grew by over 12 basis points last week.

Advertisement

The two-year yield is more sensitive to interest-rate expectations, so the widening of the spread, driven by a faster rise of the two-year yield, implies expectations of elevated borrowing costs over the near term. Similarly, the gap between five- and 30-year yields also widened, flashing similar expectations.

Elevated interest rates often disincentivize riskier asset classes, especially weighing on emerging technologies like cryptocurrencies and zero-yielding assets like bitcoin.

Taken together, the outflows and yield curve signals paint a bearish picture for risk assets. Investors may be redeploying capital into impending IPOs, especially SpaceX, which could be the biggest ever, and into commodities, which are rallying amid disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Forthcoming U.S. inflation data releases, including the Fed’s preferred gauge, core PCE, due on Thursday, could clarify the market trajectory. Stay alert!

Advertisement

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

Today’s signal

Daily swings in the BTC-gold ratio in candlestick format. (TradingView)

The chart shows daily swings in the ratio between the prices in U.S. dollars of bitcoin and gold.

The ratio has been rising since March, indicating BTC outperformance relative to gold, and as of writing, it is holding onto the bullish trendline support. A bounce from here would imply the continuation of the rally.

Conversely, if the support breaks, it signals a resumption of the broader BTC bear market.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

Wintermute Suggests a Scary Crypto Market Scenario: How True Is It?

Published

on

Bitcoin Positive Sentiment Score

The latest Wintermute crypto prediction says capital has not returned, and no bottom is confirmed. BeInCrypto analysts tested every checkable claim against on-chain data. The short answer is that the call holds, except for the one thing it dismisses.

Bitcoin trades near $62,000 after a 14% weekly drop, back to levels last seen in September 2024, while the Nasdaq fell 4.7% amid AI exhaustion.

What the Wintermute Crypto Prediction Actually Says

The market maker’s June 8 note argues the decline came from US institutional selling and Bitcoin ETF outflows, not from Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC.

That sale, the firm’s first since 2022, was immaterial in size and symbolic in signal, in Wintermute’s words. Disclosures this week even showed Strategy back on the bid with a 1,550 BTC purchase.

Advertisement

Here, the desk pushes back on one point. The coins never hit order books, yet sentiment data reviewed by BeInCrypto shows Bitcoin’s positive sentiment score collapsing from 814 on June 3 to 61 now, a fall of more than 92%.

The crash brackets the sale’s circulation, suggesting the damage ran through psychology even if it skipped the tape.

Bitcoin Positive Sentiment Score
Bitcoin Positive Sentiment Score: Santiment

The macro half of the Wintermute crypto prediction reads good news as bad news. May payrolls printed 172,000 jobs against roughly 80,000 expected, services prices hit their hottest since August 2022, and the 10-year yield rose to 4.55% on Friday.

Consequently, the easing case faded, and some analyst commentary now frames oil-driven inflation as a potential trigger for a rate hike.

Advertisement

Wintermute adds one structural worry. Bitcoin never spent meaningful time between $50,000 and $59,000 in 2024, so few shelves exist underneath, leaving capital flows to set direction.

So BeInCrypto analysts checked the flows first.

The Money Has Not Come Back, and the Reserves Prove It

The cleanest gauge is stablecoin exchange reserves, the pool of dollar-pegged tokens sitting on exchange wallets as ready-to-deploy buying power.

CryptoQuant data reviewed by BeInCrypto shows that the pool peaked at $75.12 billion on November 12, 2025. Roughly a month after BTC’s all-time high.

Advertisement
Stablecoins Exchange Reserve Post Market Peak
Stablecoins Exchange Reserve Post Market Peak: CryptoQuant

It has since drained to $62.81 billion as of June 10, 2026, a fall of roughly 16%. That round-trips the entire fourth-quarter build and returns reserves to a level even lower than last seen in late September 2025, before the price peak even formed.

All Stablecoins Exchange Reserve
All Stablecoins Exchange Reserve: CryptoQuant

The broader stablecoin market cap tells the same story from another angle. DefiLlama shows the total float at $315.97 billion, down $3.25 billion in the past week after topping near $323 billion.

Dry powder is draining while the total money on crypto’s rails leaks at the same time.

DeFi Marketcap
DeFi Marketcap: DeFiLlama

On its core claim, the Wintermute crypto prediction verifies in full. Capital has not returned, by either measure. The ETF ledger then shows how unusual this drought already is.

An Outflow Streak With No Precedent

SoSoValue monthly data frames the whole cycle. Inflows of $6.02 billion in July 2025 began the setup, and September and October added $3.53 billion and $3.42 billion as prices peaked at $126,210.

Then the funds flipped. November through February printed four straight red months, the longest monthly outflow streak since the products launched, against a single two-month streak in February and March 2025. November alone bled a record $3.48 billion.

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Monthly Flows
Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Monthly Flows: SoSoValue

May reopened the wound with $2.43 billion out, the worst month of 2026, and June has already shed $1.89 billion in just 10 days, nearly 80% of May’s total.

During the outflow era, fund assets nearly halved from $147.73 billion to $77.58 billion, while prices halved from the record high to $62,000.

Advertisement

The dates further strengthen the Wintermute crypto prediction.

Rekt Capital called the October 2025 top in June 2024 using halving-cycle timing, and October proved to be the final month of meaningful inflows. His late-November macro triangle breakdown landed on the streak’s worst month.

His forward math is where the scenario sharpens.

The Verdict on the Wintermute Crypto Prediction

In an interview with BeInCrypto, the analyst capped this year’s upside at the falling macro downtrend, the series of lower highs running since October.

Advertisement

“The mid-80s would probably be the top for this year, provided we don’t break the macro downtrend,” said Rekt Capital.

The pivot that changes everything is a sustained break above $82,500.

His floor runs deeper than current prices.

“This bear market should see a retracement of some 60% to 70%, which would mean we go sub-50 into the 40s, and that should be taking place in Q4 of this year,” he told BeInCrypto.

BeInCrypto’s projection highlights similar levels. Keeping the mid-January to early-May swing in play, a potential bottom for BTC comes at $44,627. That would be a 64% retracement from BTC’s peak.

The peak to breaking the bearish pattern lies around $82,824, aligning perfectly with Rekt Capital’s $82,500 pivot.

Advertisement
Macro Downtrend Structure
Bitcoin Macro Downtrend Structure: TradingView

So, how true is Wintermute’s crypto prediction? The answer lands in three parts.

The flow claims verify in full, from the record streak to the drained reserves. The dismissal of the Strategy sale underplays a 92% collapse in Bitcoin sentiment that the desk can document.

And the one bullish crack is real, since long-term holder wallets keep absorbing coins even as their pace thins considerably.

However, weakening accumulation is what keeps Wintermute’s bearish case alive.

Weakening Holder Accumulation
Weakening Holder Accumulation: Glassnode

Wintermute named its own test in the SpaceX listing on June 12, and Rekt Capital named its at $82,500. Either one of those triggers breaks the pattern, or the flow math and the cycle math keep pointing at the same sub-$50,000 zone.

His ceiling stretches further out. Every cycle forms a three-year resistance that breaks only in the halving year, and this cycle’s level is $93,000. That makes $93,000 his absolute maximum for 2027, with new record highs unlikely before 2028.

Advertisement

The post Wintermute Suggests a Scary Crypto Market Scenario: How True Is It? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

EU eyes ban on foreign crypto services linked to Russia sanctions evasion

Published

on

EU eyes ban on foreign crypto services linked to Russia sanctions evasion

The European Commission has proposed sanctions on 20 non-EU entities, including crypto platforms, as part of a new package that could introduce the bloc’s first country-level ban on foreign crypto services linked to Russian sanctions evasion.

Summary

  • The European Commission has proposed sanctions on 20 non-EU entities, including crypto platforms accused of helping Russia bypass existing restrictions.
  • New measures could introduce the EU’s first country-level ban on crypto services from jurisdictions hosting platforms linked to sanctions evasion.
  • Chainalysis reported $93.3 billion in transaction volume tied to the ruble-backed stablecoin A7A5, a network cited in growing scrutiny of Russia-linked crypto activity.

According to the European Commission, the proposed 21st sanctions package targets banks, oil traders, and cryptocurrency platforms that have allegedly provided services to sanctioned Russian individuals and entities. 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the measures are designed to close remaining channels used to bypass existing restrictions.

Advertisement

Under the proposal, transaction bans would be extended to the listed non-EU entities. In addition, the commission is seeking authority to prohibit crypto services originating from entire non-EU jurisdictions if those countries host platforms that help sanctioned Russian actors continue operating.

“It will act as a strong deterrent for the countries hosting platforms that help Russia evade our sanctions,” von der Leyen said.

Crypto platforms face growing sanctions scrutiny

The proposal arrives as regulators on both sides of the Atlantic increase pressure on crypto infrastructure they believe supports sanctioned states and illicit financial networks.

Chainalysis reported that illicit cryptocurrency addresses received $154 billion in 2025. The blockchain analytics firm also identified substantial activity linked to Russia, citing approximately $93.3 billion in transaction volume involving the ruble-backed stablecoin A7A5, which it said represented a significant portion of state-linked crypto activity.

Advertisement

Earlier this year, blockchain research firm Elliptic identified five crypto exchanges that it said provided financial pathways used to bypass sanctions while operating outside traditional banking oversight.

Recent enforcement actions have already targeted several crypto businesses accused of supporting sanctioned networks. In May, the United Kingdom sanctioned Huobi Global S.A., which authorities linked to HTX, over allegations that it provided services to the Russia-connected A7 network. The UK government imposed asset freezes, payment restrictions, internet service sanctions, and other measures against the company.

Elliptic said the UK action represented the first use of Regulation 17A against a cryptoasset exchange, extending restrictions on correspondent banking relationships and payment processing involving designated entities.

Across the globe, the U.S. Treasury in June designated four Iranian cryptocurrency exchanges, Nobitex, Wallex, Bitpin, and Ramzinex, alleging they helped sanctioned entities access the digital asset ecosystem. Treasury officials said cryptocurrency services had become part of Iran’s efforts to move funds outside traditional financial channels.

Advertisement

Russia prepares domestic crypto framework

While European authorities move toward tighter restrictions, Russia is preparing a comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory framework expected to be introduced in July.

The planned rules would establish licensed domestic trading platforms, creating a regulated structure for local crypto activity as international scrutiny of Russia-linked digital asset flows continues to increase.

Outside the crypto sector, the European Commission’s latest package also seeks to tighten pressure on Russia’s energy and trade sectors. Proposed measures include additional restrictions on oil vessels and the first sanctions targeting Russian fisheries.

“Our sanctions keep biting hard and cutting deep; they are weakening the economic foundations of Russia’s war effort,” von der Leyen added.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

FIFA Taps Kraken as Official Cryptocurrency Partner for 2026 World Cup

Published

on

Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Points

  • Kraken secured the position of Official Crypto Exchange Supporter for FIFA World Cup 2026
  • The agreement encompasses digital asset education, supporter engagement initiatives, and platform awareness throughout North America and European markets
  • The tournament will showcase an unprecedented 48 national teams competing in 104 fixtures across 16 metropolitan areas in three nations
  • Tournament organizers project a combined audience exceeding six billion spectators worldwide
  • Initial fan engagement launches with the FIFA World Cup 2026 Countdown Concert scheduled for June 10

The cryptocurrency exchange Kraken has secured official supporter status for the FIFA World Cup 2026 tournament. This arrangement spans North American and European territories, emphasizing supporter interaction, cryptocurrency literacy programs, and platform exposure surrounding the global football event.

Romy Gai, FIFA’s Chief Business Officer, indicated the collaboration aligns with the federation’s objectives for enhancing supporter experiences. Arjun Sethi, co-CEO of Kraken, emphasized that football transcends geographical and linguistic barriers, suggesting financial systems should operate similarly.

The 2026 tournament unfolds over seven weeks spanning the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This marks the inaugural expanded format featuring 48 participating nations and 104 total matches. FIFA anticipates cumulative viewership surpassing six billion people globally.

Advertisement

Kraken’s Tournament Engagement Strategy

Kraken plans to leverage the World Cup’s massive platform for introducing football enthusiasts to cryptocurrency technology. The strategy prioritizes educational content, brand recognition, and seamless platform accessibility.

Supporter engagement activities are scheduled throughout the pre-tournament and competition periods. These initiatives will integrate with match broadcasts, football supporter networks, and tournament-related events across both continental regions.

The inaugural public engagement coincides with the FIFA World Cup 2026 Countdown Concert happening June 10. This multi-city concert series represents part of the broader pre-tournament promotional campaign.

The financial details of the FIFA partnership agreement remain undisclosed by Kraken.

Advertisement

Existing Sponsorship Portfolio

Kraken maintains current partnerships with prominent football clubs including Tottenham Hotspur, Atlético de Madrid, and RB Leipzig. The platform additionally sponsors Atlassian Williams Racing in the Formula 1 championship.

These existing agreements positioned Kraken before substantial football and motorsport audiences prior to finalizing the World Cup arrangement. The FIFA deal significantly amplifies that exposure to a worldwide tournament audience.

With more than ten years of operational history, Kraken maintains service across over 190 nations. This established framework will support the company’s World Cup-related programming initiatives.

Cryptocurrency platforms have progressively utilized sports partnerships for reaching audiences beyond traditional trading demographics. Kraken’s strategy emphasizes educational outreach and brand awareness rather than direct trading solicitation.

Advertisement

The 2026 World Cup represents FIFA’s most expansive tournament regarding participating teams and total matches. Spanning three nations and 16 host metropolitan areas, the arrangement provides Kraken extensive geographical reach for its engagement initiatives.

Sethi characterized the tournament as a worldwide platform where football culture and digital finance converge. Both FIFA and Kraken emphasized supporter engagement as the partnership’s fundamental objective.

The June 10 countdown concert launches Kraken’s public-facing World Cup programming. Engagement activities throughout North America and Europe will continue through the tournament’s conclusion.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

SpaceX IPO Draws Record $250 Billion Demand

Published

on

SpaceX IPO Draws Record $250 Billion Demand

The initial public offering of Elon Musk’s SpaceX has reportedly seen an oversubscription rate running at almost ​four times the planned offering size, with some analysts suggesting it could be squeezing liquidity from the market.

SpaceX’s IPO (SPCX) has attracted over $250 billion in investor demand, far exceeding the $75 billion it is seeking to raise in what would be the largest public offering ever, with the firm valued at $1.8 trillion, Reuters reported.

Bankers and investors say it is the latest sign that demand is strong, ​as long-only funds have put in “sizable orders,” according to the sources. 

Pricing is expected on Thursday, though demand figures can still shift before then, as some large institutional investors tend to submit orders late in the process.

Advertisement

Tech stocks tumble in IPO hype rotation  

The IPO comes at a time of extreme volatility in markets, with US tech stocks tumbling and crypto markets shedding more than $180 billion over the past week. 

Some analysts have speculated that the market retreat could be partially driven by selling to raise funds for the SpaceX IPO.

“I’m seeing this exactly as the classic pre-mega-IPO liquidity squeeze playing out in real time,” Bitrue Research Institute research lead Andri Fauzan Adziima told Cointelegraph.

“The tanking in crypto and tech stocks right now isn’t random, it’s the direct ‘IPO tax’ from SpaceX’s record-breaking deal, with pricing tomorrow and trading Friday at $135 for a $1.8 trillion valuation,” he said.

Advertisement

“Oversubscription with massive orders confirms the hype, but that excitement is sucking liquidity out of correlated risk assets today, hitting crypto hardest because it’s the most retail-driven and sentiment-tied to growth/tech narratives.”

This isn’t the start of a broader bear market, it’s a “temporary rotation,” he said.

Tech stocks take a hit (five-day) ahead of SpaceX IPO. Source: Barchart

Crypto exchanges rush to offer pre-IPO perps

SpaceX’s growth story is largely tied to its satellite internet business, Starlink, which has become a major source of revenue and profitability. The firm has also touted a $23 trillion market opportunity it claims is ahead for its artificial intelligence offerings. 

Related: SpaceX IPO: ‘Bad news’ for tech stocks but what about Bitcoin?

Crypto exchanges have been quick to capitalize on the IPO hype, with Binance, Coinbase, Kraken and Bybit launching pre‑IPO perpetual futures for SPCX this month. 

Advertisement

Shunyet Jan, head of spot and derivatives at Binance, told Cointelegraph that the strong early traction for Binance’s pre-IPO perpetual futures “reflects growing user interest in gaining regulated-style market exposure to high-profile private companies through this native product.”

Since launch, the products have generated $2.1 billion in cumulative trading volume in just 18 days on Binance, with participation spanning more than 130 countries.

Meanwhile, decentralized exchange Hyperliquid has seen $70 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours, with the current price for its synthetic SpaceX pre-IPO perps at $157, down from $210 when the derivatives launched, according to Hyperdash.

This indicates strong demand with open interest (OI) exceeding $115 million on Hyperliquid alone, and a current prediction of a $1.97 trillion SpaceX valuation. 

Advertisement

Magazine: Vietnam preps crypto pilot, HK pushes tokenization: Asia Express

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

XRP perpetual futures go live on Kalshi for U.S. traders

Published

on

Kalshi valuation hits $22bn after $1bn Series F

XRP perpetual futures have started trading on Kalshi, giving U.S. users access to leveraged XRP price exposure.

Summary

  • Kalshi now offers XRP perpetual futures to U.S. traders through its CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange platform.
  • The cash-settled contract uses CF Benchmarks pricing and remains open without a fixed expiration date.
  • Kalshi’s crypto perpetual volume passed $1 billion within one week, showing strong early trader demand.

The cash-settled contract trades under the XRPPERP ticker and has no fixed expiration date.

The launch expands Kalshi’s crypto derivatives offering beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. It also moves XRP into a regulated market long dominated by offshore exchanges.

Advertisement

XRP contract tracks a regulated price benchmark

Kalshi’s support page lists XRP among 13 crypto assets available through its perpetual futures service. One full XRPPERP contract represents 10,000 XRP, while the minimum order equals one XRP.

The product uses the CME CF XRP-Dollar Real Time Index. Kalshi uses that reference rate for funding and settlement.

Perpetual futures stay open without a maturity date. Regular funding payments help keep the contract price close to the underlying XRP spot market.

Advertisement

Kalshi used the CFTC self-certification route

Kalshi filed the XRP contract with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on June 1 under Regulation 40.2(a). The filing self-certified XRPPERP for listing after the close of business that day.

That process differs from the formal review route used for Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual contract. Kalshi remains a CFTC-registered designated contract market, and XRPPERP trades within that regulated exchange structure.

The filing says the market includes customer identity checks, trade monitoring, risk-based margin and central clearing. Kalshi can also apply price bands, order limits and position controls.

Early demand supports Kalshi’s crypto expansion

Kalshi’s broader perpetual futures rollout recorded more than $100 million in volume during its first 24 hours. Reported cumulative volume later passed $1 billion within the opening week.

Advertisement

The XRP launch follows Bitcoin and Ethereum products introduced earlier in June. As crypto.news reported on June 4, XRP and several other altcoin contracts were still awaiting clearance. Kalshi’s updated product pages now show XRP, Solana, Dogecoin and other assets as available.

Kalshi has also filed for a perpetual contract tied to Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. The expansion places it in competition with Coinbase, Kraken and offshore derivatives exchanges.

Perpetual futures widen access but add risk

XRP perpetual futures let traders take long or short positions without owning the token. They can also hold positions without repeatedly moving into new dated contracts.

However, leverage can increase both gains and losses. Funding payments may raise the cost of keeping a position open, while sudden price moves can trigger forced liquidation.

Advertisement

CME Group chief Terry Duffy has warned that U.S. crypto perpetuals may expose retail traders to risks they do not fully understand. Kalshi states that leverage limits can vary by asset and advises users to check each market before trading.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

Dogecoin Whales Buy the Dip as DOGE Hit 14-Month Low

Published

on

The leading meme coin was not spared from the market-wide calamity at the end of the previous business week, and its subsequent recovery is yet to impress.

However, this has allowed large investors to accumulate at lower prices. Santiment data shared by popular analyst Ali Martinez shows that the so-called whales have acquired over 200 million tokens in the past week alone.

The graph below demonstrates that their DOGE holdings kept increasing in the past several days, hitting 18.84 billion coins.

As mentioned above, DOGE was swept last week, especially on Friday, dipping below $0.08 for the first time since February 2025. Despite recovering slightly to $0.084 as of press time, the OG meme coin remains highly depressed, at 89% away from its May 2021 all-time high.

Martinez also warned recently that DOGE could be on the verge of a more profound decline if certain metrics align. As reported, he noted that the meme coin’s price action has followed multi-year consolidation channels, where it has repeatedly moved through extended ranges that compress volatility and redistribute supply before larger cycles begin.

Citing several on-chain metrics, he explained that DOGE could drop to $0.058 if the $0.081 floor gives in.

Meanwhile, data from SoSoValue clearly shows that ETF investors have not expressed any interest in the largest meme coin. More specifically, there has been only one day of actual inflows since May 19: all the rest have seen no reportable action.

Advertisement

The three funds tracking the asset’s performance have attracted a very modest $12.44 million since their inception in late November 2025.

The post Dogecoin Whales Buy the Dip as DOGE Hit 14-Month Low appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

How One Guy Used Claude Code to Discover a Billion-Dollar Bug

Published

on

Taylor Hornby, a security researcher who works with Shielded Labs, discovered a bug on May 29, 2026 – just one day after Anthropic released Opus 4.8- that resulted in billions of dollars removed from the project’s market capitalization.

The flaw affected a shielded pool within the protocol’s design that powered private Zcash transactions, and was serious enough to trigger an emergency response across the entire ecosystem. It resulted in a sudden sell-off that saw ZEC’s price crash by roughly 60%, thereby erasing more than $4 billion in market cap.

The short version of the story is relatively simple: a missing constraint in Zcash’s Orchard circuit could have allowed a malicious prover to spend the same shielded note many times over while producing different nullifiers. In practice, this means an attacker could have inflated ZEC within the Orchard pool without leaving an on-chain fingerprint.

The scary part is that this bug has existed since Orchard went live, and this happened in May 2022. Therefore, the total exposure window lasted for around four years, before it was ultimately patched shortly after Hornby discovered it.

Advertisement

AI Helped Find The Critical Vulnerability

This story isn’t just about the flaw, but the way it was found.

Hornby said he used a custom “zcash-full-stack-auditor” agent framework with Claude Opus 4.8. It was designed to work at maximum effort and was pointed at the halo2 implementation, including the Orchard circuit. The AI was searching for soundness and zero-knowledge security issues.

The researcher reported that around 6 p.m. on May 29, one of the audit agents flagged a vulnerability that it believed could be used to double-spend Orchard notes. Hornby then used Claude to help write proof-of-concept code against a similar circuit, before testing the issue against the real Orchard circuit.

Testing the Exploit with Claude

Hornby later built a full test in Zcash’s local regtest mode, where the exploit doubled the value of an Orchard note until the test wallet balance exceeded 10 million ZEC. These transactions were never broadcast to mainnet or testnet, of course, but the test itself was significant because regtest applies the exact same validation rules, meaning that it could have been done on mainnet with the same degree of success.

Advertisement

Per the official disclosure, the full PoC took roughly six hours to develop using Claude Code’s help. Hornby said the model needed relatively little guidance beyond a few hints.

Of course, it’s important to understand that this doesn’t mean that AI independently “hacked Zcash.”

Taylor Hornby is a renowned specialist security researcher. That audit was targeted, and the tools were custom-built.

Still, the case shows how some frontier AI models are beginning to significantly reduce the time required to investigate highly complex, technical systems.

Advertisement

The post How One Guy Used Claude Code to Discover a Billion-Dollar Bug appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

Could insider trading bans hurt Polymarket and Kalshi market accuracy?

Published

on

Optimal enforcement graph.

Prediction market accuracy has suffered under both weak and excessive insider trading enforcement, according to a new academic study that argued a complete ban could leave markets less informative.

Summary

  • A new academic study says a blanket insider trading ban could make prediction market prices less accurate by removing valuable information.
  • The research argues that enforcement should vary based on how information is obtained, with the toughest penalties reserved for traders who can influence outcomes.
  • Kalshi has introduced new compliance measures as regulators and lawmakers increase scrutiny of insider trading risks across prediction markets.

According to a June 2 research paper by Balbinder Singh Gill, assistant professor of finance at Stevens Institute of Technology, prediction markets work best under a middle-ground enforcement model rather than a zero-tolerance approach. The study developed an economic framework to examine how insider trading rules affect market participation and price accuracy.

Gill found that stricter enforcement can encourage more traders to participate by limiting insider advantages, but removing insiders entirely can also strip markets of valuable information. As a result, prediction market accuracy follows what the paper described as a “hump-shaped” pattern, improving as enforcement increases up to a point before declining when restrictions become too severe.

Advertisement
Optimal enforcement graph.

Source: Balbinder Singh Gill

The research arrives as regulators and lawmakers have intensified scrutiny of insider trading across prediction markets. In April, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s enforcement division warned that traders using non-public information could face enforcement action. A month later, U.S. House lawmakers opened an investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket over insider trading concerns.

Study argues for targeted enforcement

Rather than treating all insider activity the same way, the paper proposed different levels of enforcement based on the source of information.

Under the framework, traders who gain an informational edge through independent research should face little or no enforcement because punishing such activity could discourage information gathering that helps markets produce accurate prices.

Advertisement

A different standard should apply when information is obtained through leaks, stolen documents, classified material, or other forms of misappropriation, the study argued. In those situations, stronger enforcement is warranted because the informational advantage comes from unauthorized access rather than analysis.

At the highest end of the spectrum are participants who can directly influence an outcome they are betting on. According to the paper, those cases carry the highest manipulation risk and justify the toughest enforcement measures.

Recent investigations have highlighted those concerns. Federal authorities opened a probe into former U.S. Representative George Santos after Kalshi reported unusual trading activity linked to a market on whether he would attend the State of the Union address. Authorities alleged Santos publicly stated he would attend, placed a wager that he would not appear, and later skipped the event.

Following similar concerns, Kalshi imposed trading suspensions and financial penalties on local political candidates, including Virginia candidate Mark Moran and Minnesota candidate Matt Klein, after they placed bets on races in which they were competing. Such cases have drawn attention because the trader is not simply forecasting an event but may have the ability to influence the result itself.

Advertisement

Government agencies have also expanded enforcement against traders accused of using classified information. In April, the CFTC and the Department of Justice charged U.S. Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified intelligence about a planned military operation targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to trade on Polymarket.

According to enforcement filings, authorities relied on Section 746 of the Dodd-Frank Act, often referred to as the “Eddie Murphy Rule,” a provision originally designed to stop government employees from profiting from non-public government reports in commodity markets. The Van Dyke case represented the first known application of that authority to a prediction market platform.

Platforms and companies tighten controls

Even as researchers debate the appropriate level of enforcement, prediction market operators have begun introducing new safeguards.

As previously covered on crypto.news, Kalshi recently announced that users trading in certain sensitive markets, including those tied to corporate performance and national security events, may be required to disclose employment information. The company has also created a market-specific risk scoring system designed to identify contracts with elevated insider trading or manipulation risks.

Advertisement

Those changes followed recommendations from an internal audit committee and growing pressure from regulators and lawmakers.

Two recent cases cited in the study involved traders accused of profiting from privileged information on Polymarket. One involved a Google employee charged with using internal search trend information to earn approximately $1.2 million, while another involved a U.S. soldier accused of trading on classified military knowledge.

Outside the prediction market industry, legal advisers have warned corporations that event contracts are creating new risks around material nonpublic information. 

Corporate law firms have advised companies to update compliance policies and employee handbooks, while some multinational firms are revising insider trading rules and non-disclosure agreements to explicitly cover prediction market activity.

Advertisement

As prediction markets continue to expand, with some financial firms projecting industry volumes could reach $1 trillion by 2030, the debate has increasingly centered on where regulators should draw the line between valuable information discovery and illicit use of privileged information. 

Gill’s research suggests that eliminating insider participation entirely may come with costs of its own, potentially reducing the very price accuracy that prediction markets are designed to provide.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

Hyperliquid, Paradigm Urge FinCEN Revise GENIUS Rule

Published

on

Hyperliquid, Paradigm Urge FinCEN Revise GENIUS Rule

The lobbying arm of crypto futures exchange Hyperliquid and venture capital firm Paradigm has urged the US Treasury to revise a proposed anti-money laundering and sanctions rule for stablecoin issuers.

The Hyperliquid Policy Center and Paradigm said in a letter on Tuesday that some secondary market obligations should be clarified or narrowed “to avoid unintended consequences for permissionless blockchain infrastructure and the DeFi ecosystem.”

The pair said they endorse the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network’s (FinCEN) approach of putting compliance obligations on the “primary market,” such as issuers who have customer information, and taking a “limited approach” to the secondary market, where issuers only see wallets and transactions.

“The same principle should guide the agencies’ implementation of AML and sanctions requirements for stablecoins deployed to permissionless environments,” they argued.

Advertisement

The letter was in response to a rule the Treasury proposed in April to implement GENIUS Act provisions relating to stablecoin issuers, requiring stablecoin issuers to have the capability to block, freeze or reject transactions that violate US law or sanctions on both the primary and secondary markets.

Source: Stefan Schropp

Hyperliquid and Paradigm said the proposal sweeps secondary market activity into an issuer’s compliance perimeter that they “cannot meaningfully police.”

They argued it also treats smart contract interactions as an activity that carries sanctions liability “regardless of whether the issuer has any relationship with, or visibility into, the transacting parties.”

Advertisement

The pair said an issuer who is facing the obligations proposed would be incentivized to only deploy into a permissioned environment, which they argued would see US-regulated stablecoins pulled out of decentralized finance to create “a void filled by unregulated, offshore, non-dollar alternatives.”

Related: Solana Institute CEO says CLARITY Act must shield open-source developers

US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law last year, which outlined how stablecoins and their issuers are to be regulated. Federal agencies are currently looking at how to implement the law, which is set to go into effect in January 2027 at the latest.

The Senate is currently debating a crypto bill that could include further rules for stablecoin issuers and remove liability for developers of crypto platforms regarding money laundering and sanctions compliance.

Advertisement

Provisions for the legislation, dubbed the CLARITY Act, are still under discussion, and some lawmakers are pushing for a full Senate vote on the bill before the November elections.

Magazine: The legal battle over who can claim DeFi’s stolen millions

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

Are crypto markets at risk as SpaceX IPO demand hits 4x?

Published

on

SpaceX related party maze puts Valor and Musk in creditors’ spotlight

SpaceX’s planned public offering has attracted more than $250 billion in orders, nearly four times the $75 billion it aims to raise. 

Summary

  • SpaceX has attracted over $250 billion in orders for its planned $75 billion public offering.
  • Crypto’s recent selloff offers early evidence of capital rotation, though other market pressures remain active.
  • Nasdaq rules could admit SpaceX after 15 trading days, creating another potential demand wave later.

The scale has renewed questions about whether the June 12 listing will pull capital from crypto markets.

The IPO is expected to price Thursday at about $135 per share. Orders can still change before final allocations, but early demand shows how much cash investors are preparing to move.

Advertisement

Crypto shows early signs of a liquidity squeeze

As crypto.news reported, the digital asset market lost about $250 billion during the June selloff, while Bitcoin briefly fell below $62,000. The timing supports claims that some investors are rotating toward major technology listings.

SpaceX is not the only pressure. Geopolitical tension, weaker rate-cut hopes and leveraged liquidations have also weighed on Bitcoin and altcoins. The IPO may add strain without being the sole cause.

“That combined selling is what you are seeing right now,” market commentator Bull Theory said.

The statement remains an interpretation because public data does not show how much crypto was sold specifically to fund SpaceX orders.

Advertisement

SpaceX trading may keep capital tied up

SpaceX plans to sell $75 billion of stock at a valuation near $1.8 trillion. Reuters reported that retail investors may receive up to 30% of the offering, far above normal IPO allocations.

The demand has reached currency markets. South Korean investors reportedly generated about $1.5 billion in dollar purchases linked to the IPO, adding pressure to the won before those orders cleared.

A strong opening could encourage investors who missed allocations to sell other assets and buy SPCX. A weak debut could ease that pressure, though the stock may remain volatile because only a small portion of SpaceX will trade publicly.

Advertisement

Crypto derivatives signal demand and volatility

Binance, Coinbase, Bybit and Bitget launched SpaceX pre-IPO perpetuals, while Kraken offered tokenized IPO access in more than 110 markets. The products give traders exposure before the stock begins trading.

Hyperliquid’s synthetic SpaceX contract climbed above $200 before retreating toward $165. An earlier SpaceX-linked contract also fell 45% within 30 minutes, liquidating about $1.5 million as thin liquidity worsened the move.

These products do not represent SpaceX shares. Their leverage and limited depth can produce prices that differ sharply from the stock after listing.

Nasdaq entry could extend the liquidity contest

Nasdaq’s updated rules let a large new listing qualify for fast entry into the Nasdaq-100. An eligible company is assessed after seven trading days and can normally enter after 15.

Advertisement

Some analysts estimate that inclusion could trigger $22 billion to $27 billion in passive buying. Nasdaq has not confirmed that figure. Its rules also say fast entry does not require removing another company.

Crypto’s main risk is therefore continued competition for speculative capital. Bitcoin ETF flows, stablecoin reserves and SPCX’s opening performance will show whether pressure continues after the debut.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2025