Sui (SUI) trades between $1.06 and $1.24 in late May 2026, recovering from a winter that took it 79% below its January 2025 high of $5.35. 

Two specific events on May 9 and 10 drove an 18% jump. A Nasdaq-listed company disclosed it had staked roughly 2.7% of SUI’s circulating supply. Paga Group, the Nigerian fintech that processed $11 billion in payments and 169 million transactions last year, announced it would route its enterprise products through Sui using USDsui. 

The native stablecoin USDsui launched in March 2026, designed to recycle yield into SUI buybacks, creating a direct value capture mechanism. On May 20, 2026, Sui launched protocol-level gasless stablecoin transfers with Fireblocks support, dropping stablecoin transfer fees to $0.00 without requiring users to hold SUI. 

CME Group launched SUI futures on May 29, 2026. Institutional access has multiplied: 21Shares Spot SUI ETF (TSUI) has been trading on Nasdaq since February 2026, Grayscale filed an S-1 for a dedicated Sui Trust, VanEck runs a European Sui exchange-traded product, major custodians including Crypto.com added regulated SUI custody.

Native WBTC bridge and compliant USDsui stablecoin live through BitGo, LayerZero, and payment partners. The S2 (Sui StackStack) roadmap targets evolution from L1 to a unified developer platform with native privacy and gasless stablecoin transfers. DeepBook v3 upgrade introducing margin trading and a referral commission model. 

The honest read: Sui in 2026 has the cleanest answer crypto has produced to how a Layer-1 captures value from stablecoin flow rather than ceding it to USDC and USDT. The mechanics are real. The execution risk sits on USDsui actually scaling, on S2 shipping as promised, on the January 2026 mainnet outage not having a sequel, and on Move’s safety advantages translating to developer migration rather than staying a niche pitch. 

This piece walks through the mechanics, the bull case ($6 to $15 by 2030), the base case ($2 to $4), and the bear case ($0.50 to $1.20), with the variables that determine which one materializes.

Why Sui is at $1.10 right now

The current Sui price reflects recovery from January 2026 outage damage and broader altcoin weakness, plus specific institutional and consumer adoption catalysts emerging through Q1-Q2 2026.

The starting point: SUI peaked at $5.35 on January 6, 2025. The decline through 2025-early 2026 to current ~$1.10 levels (79% drawdown from peak) reflected broader altcoin weakness, January 2026 mainnet outage damaging institutional confidence, monthly token unlock sell-pressure as vesting schedules continued, and competitive dynamics where Solana captured high-performance Layer-1 institutional attention.

The institutional infrastructure development: 21Shares Spot SUI ETF (TSUI) began trading on Nasdaq in February 2026 as the first spot SUI ETF. Grayscale filed an S-1 registration for a dedicated Sui Trust, providing a U.S institutional vehicle for buy-and-hold exposure. VanEck operates an exchange-traded Sui product in Europe that quietly built liquidity through 2024-2025. Major custodians including Crypto.com added regulated SUI custody. The infrastructure expansion enables institutional access through familiar compliance stacks rather than requiring offshore exchange accounts.

The USDsui native stablecoin: launched March 2026, USDsui is Sui’s native stablecoin designed with a distinctive feature: recycling yield into SUI buybacks. The mechanism creates direct value capture from stablecoin operations flowing back to SUI demand. This is different in kind from typical stablecoin economics where stablecoin issuer profits don’t directly benefit the underlying blockchain token.

The gasless stablecoin transfers: on May 20, 2026, Sui launched protocol-level gasless stablecoin transfers with Fireblocks support. The feature enables peer-to-peer stablecoin transfers on Sui without requiring users to hold SUI, dropping current stablecoin transfer fees to $0.00. The user experience improvement addresses one of the major friction points for stablecoin adoption: requiring users to hold native gas tokens.

The Paga integration: Paga Group’s $11 billion fintech integration with Sui represents one of the most concrete emerging market consumer crypto adoption developments in 2026. Paga processed 169 million transactions in 2025. The integration uses USDsui for emerging market payments and plans to support stablecoin payments and tokenized real-world asset products. The partnership links Sui to real payment infrastructure with substantial existing user base.

The institutional staking catalyst: May 9, 2026, a Nasdaq-listed company disclosed staking approximately 2.7% of SUI’s circulating supply. The institutional staking removes tokens from liquid supply and signals public company comfort with long-term SUI position. The 13% initial price jump on this news showed market sensitivity to institutional staking commitments.

The CME futures expansion: CME Group launched SUI futures on May 29, 2026. The expansion provides regulated derivatives access for institutional traders. CME futures historically correlate with broader institutional adoption patterns (Bitcoin futures preceded ETF approval, Ethereum futures expansion accompanied ETF approval pathway).

The S2 (Sui StackStack) roadmap: 2026 plan to evolve Sui from a Layer-1 to a unified developer platform with native privacy and gasless stablecoin transfers. DeepBook v3 upgrade introducing margin trading and referral commission model. The roadmap addresses developer experience improvements and protocol functionality expansion.

The Move language differentiation: Sui’s foundational technology uses the Move programming language (originally developed for Diem/Libra), designed specifically for safe digital asset programming. The Move advantage is technical: object-oriented design preventing common smart contract vulnerabilities, native parallel execution, formal verification capabilities. While EVM compatibility may be more accessible for developer migration, Move provides genuine technical differentiation for assets requiring safety guarantees.

The bridge infrastructure: native trust-minimized bridge to Ethereum (delivered Q3 2025) plus WBTC and USDsui support provides credible two-way liquidity flows with Ethereum’s DeFi base. Assets can move from Ethereum into Sui’s high-speed environment without relying on opaque multisig bridges.

The competitive position: SUI is consolidating around $1.10 levels, positioned between Solana’s high-performance institutional positioning and Ethereum’s deep DeFi institutional infrastructure. The market is determining whether SUI achieves recognition as a serious Layer-1 alongside SOL and Ethereum L2s or remains in the “narrative alt” category.

What the price action signals structurally: SUI’s recovery from January 2026 lows reflects market repricing for the new institutional infrastructure (ETF, futures, custody) plus USDsui buyback mechanism creating demand. The current $1.10 level reflects partial repricing with significant additional appreciation depending on USDsui adoption scaling and S2 roadmap execution.

The bull case: $6-$15 by 2030

The bull case for Sui requires USDsui scaling plus successful technical execution across the S2 roadmap.

The USDsui adoption: native stablecoin scales from current launch state to $5-10B+ market cap by 2030. The yield-to-buyback mechanism recycles stablecoin operations profits into SUI demand. At $5B USDsui market cap with 4-5% yield, approximately $200-250M annually flows into SUI buybacks. The ongoing buying creates demand absorption comparable to other major buyback mechanisms in crypto.

The gasless transfer dominance: protocol-level gasless stablecoin transfers position Sui as primary infrastructure for stablecoin payments globally. The user experience advantage drives adoption from competitors requiring native gas token holdings. Stablecoin volume on Sui scales to be top-tier among Layer-1 chains. Network effects compound as more applications integrate gasless stablecoin transfers.

The Paga-style expansion: emerging market fintech partnerships expand beyond Paga to additional major fintechs globally. Combining USDsui (compliant stablecoin), gasless transfers (no UX friction), and Move language (safety guarantees) attracts emerging market payment infrastructure. Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America fintechs adopt Sui as primary blockchain.

The S2 roadmap execution: Sui StackStack delivers across all phases. Native privacy capabilities attract institutional and high-value use cases. DeepBook v3 with margin trading captures meaningful DEX volume. Gasless stablecoin transfers become protocol standard. Developer platform evolution attracts substantial application development.

The Move language adoption: developer migration from Solana and Ethereum accelerates as developers recognize Move’s safety and parallel execution advantages. Major DeFi protocols deploy on Sui. Sui captures a meaningful share of new DeFi development. The technical differentiation translates to ecosystem traction.

The institutional ETF flows: 21Shares TSUI scales from current AUM to $500M-$1B+. Grayscale Sui Trust receives approval and accumulates significant AUM. Additional ETF products launch. Institutional flows give demand support comparable to other major Layer-1 ETF dynamics.

The CME futures volume: SUI futures attract substantial institutional trading volume following CME launch. The regulated derivatives access enables hedging strategies that support spot accumulation. Open interest growth indicates institutional positioning.

The competitive positioning: SUI achieves recognition as legitimate Layer-1 alongside SOL and Ethereum L2s. Market share among high-performance Layer-1s reaches double digits. Specific use cases (gasless stablecoins, emerging market payments, Move-based DeFi) provide differentiated positioning.

The CLARITY Act benefits: the regulatory framework provides explicit non-security classification. Institutional adoption barriers reduce. Pension funds, insurance companies, and compliance-restricted institutions gain the ability to allocate to SUI.

If multiple bull case conditions materialize, the price targets are:

• 2026 year-end: $2.50-4.50
• 2027 year-end: $3.50-7
• 2028 year-end: $4.50-10
• 2029 year-end: $5.50-13
• 2030 year-end: $6-15

The bull case requires sustained execution across stablecoin adoption, payment partnership expansion, technical roadmap delivery, institutional flow scaling, and competitive positioning maintenance. The wide range reflects uncertainty about how aggressively USDsui scales and how concentrated value capture is among Layer-1 winners.

The base case: $2-$4 by 2030

The base case assumes meaningful but not big progress across catalyst variables.

The USDsui scenario: native stablecoin scales to a $1-3B market cap by 2030. The buyback mechanism functions but at a smaller scale than the bull case. Annual SUI buybacks of $50-150M give structural support without producing supply shock dynamics.

The gasless transfer scenario: protocol-level gasless stablecoin transfers achieve specific use cases without becoming dominant payment infrastructure. Some applications integrate the feature. Others continue using gas-token-based approaches. The user experience improvement is meaningful for specific segments.

A regulatory dispute is intensifying around a previously resolved case between the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Gemini Trust Company. The agency has moved to vacate a $5 million settlement that had been finalized earlier this year, signaling a rare reversal of a settled enforcement matter. The amended filing, submitted in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, argues that significant deficiencies in the Division of Enforcement’s evidence and concerns about a whistleblower’s credibility undermined the basis for the settlement.

“According to Cointelegraph,” the action underscores a broader moment of scrutiny for crypto firms’ regulatory filings and the precedents governing settlements. The CFTC’s filing asserts that the whistleblower—identified in the proceedings as Gemini’s former chief operating officer—made statements that the agency now contends were false and that important information was concealed by prior leadership. The agency’s complaint against Gemini originally alleged that the firm reported inflated trading activity and volumes and misrepresented user demand during a pre-certification review of Bitcoin futures.

Tim Massad, a former CFTC chair and current Harvard Kennedy School fellow, described the development as extraordinarily unusual. “The explanation seems to be that the staff got it wrong, not that the law was unclear,” Massad told Cointelegraph, signalling the case’s unique posture within federal enforcement history. The amended motion frames the whistleblower credibility issue as central to the CFTC’s bid to relief from judgment.

Key takeaways

• The CFTC joined Gemini in seeking relief from a $5 million settlement, filing an amended motion in the Southern District of New York to vacate the judgment.
• The agency contends there were significant deficiencies in enforcement evidence and that the whistleblower’s credibility was compromised, potentially justifying reopening or reversing the deal.
• The original allegations included inflated trading activity, misrepresented user demand, and other pre-certification misstatements related to Gemini’s Bitcoin futures program.
• The matter sits at the intersection of enforcement culture and governance, with public attention on the motivations and processes behind regulatory decisions.
• Political context surrounding crypto executives and regulators has intensified scrutiny of how regulatory actions align with broader policy objectives and personnel changes at the CFTC.

Legal action and the unsettled settlement

The amended motion to vacate the judgment indicates that the CFTC believes its prior case against Gemini rested on flawed evidentiary underpinnings and questionable witness credibility. The agency’s filing argues that mistakes in the staff’s handling of the whistleblower testimony and related evidence warrant relief from the court’s judgment, effectively reopening or annulling the negotiated settlement reached in January 2025, during the Biden administration.

The core of the dispute centers on whether the CFTC’s whistleblower-based information was reliable and whether material facts were properly disclosed or adequately investigated before the settlement was approved. If the court grants relief, it could lead to renewed litigation or a renegotiation of terms, with implications for how future whistleblower disclosures are weighed in settled cases. Analysts and practitioners will be watching the SDNY proceedings closely for signals about settlement risk and the threshold for reversing resolved enforcement actions.

Enforcement posture, evidence, and credibility concerns

Beyond the procedural dimensions, the CFTC’s filings emphasize substantive questions about the evidence used to support its original complaint. The agency maintains that the pre-certification review of Gemini’s Bitcoin futures program was marred by inflated figures and inaccurate representations of demand. The allegation that critical testimony from a former Gemini executive was unreliable sits at the heart of the motion to vacate, suggesting a broader issue of evidentiary reliability in enforcement actions tied to crypto trading activities.

Massad’s remark frames this as a potential error in agency practice rather than a fundamental interpretation of the statute. The case raises issues about the quality control of enforcement materials, internal disagreements within agencies, and the standards applied when approving settlements in high-profile crypto matters. The balance between timely settlements and the integrity of the evidence underpinning those settlements is likely to become a focal point in the ongoing discourse around crypto-regulatory processes.

Political economy and governance implications

The Gemini matter has drawn attention beyond purely legal questions, intersecting with political dynamics surrounding the U.S. crypto oversight apparatus. Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s co-founders, have publicly supported political campaigns and engaged with policymakers in various venues. Notably, both founders contributed $1 million to former President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, and they met with Trump and attended White House events, including the signing ceremony for a stablecoin-related policy initiative known as the GENIUS Act.

Public discourse on governance is further complicated by governance shifts at the CFTC. A text chain published in September 2025, involving former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz, suggested that discussions around Gemini’s litigation were connected to the nomination process for the agency’s leadership. Quintenz’s narration indicated that Tyler Winklevoss’s stance on the litigation intersected with considerations about leadership placement at the CFTC, though Trump’s administration subsequently made different appointments. The relevance of these political dynamics to regulatory discretion remains a point of debate among industry observers and legal analysts.

In the context of the amended motion, Cointelegraph notes that some language in the CFTC’s filing resembles phrases found in the Quintenz-authored text communications, including references to “abuse” of regulatory authority and “false whistleblower.” While the legal significance of these textual parallels is uncertain, they contribute to a broader conversation about transparency, regulatory accountability, and the interplay between industry leadership and enforcement strategies.

Regulatory and policy context for the crypto sector

The Gemini dispute arrives at a moment when several U.S. and international regulatory bodies are recalibrating enforcement norms, settlement practices, and licensing standards for crypto entities. Although the CFTC and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) paused numerous enforcement actions during the transition between administrations, the ongoing proceedings against Gemini illustrate that critical cases can still proceed or be revived through court processes. The outcome could influence how regulators approach settled actions, the credibility of whistleblower-led evidence, and the evidentiary standards applied in crypto-related cases.

From a policy perspective, the affair touches on several regulatory axes relevant to market participants. Authorities continue to calibrate rules around crypto-asset trading, futures and derivatives, and related disclosure obligations. The discussion extends to licensing and regulatory oversight, AML/KYC compliance, and the treatment of stablecoins within broader banking and payments ecosystems. Beyond U.S. borders, MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) and other international regimes shape comparative expectations for enforcement, cross-border cooperation, and the risk framework for crypto firms operating globally.

For institutions, the Gemini matter underscores key compliance considerations: the importance of rigorous due diligence in pre-litigation assessments, robust whistleblower handling procedures, transparent investigation workflows, and careful management of settlements that may later come under scrutiny. It also highlights how political context and leadership transitions can influence regulatory perceptions and the pathways for challenge or defense in contested cases.

What this means for the sector and future monitoring

Looking ahead, several scenarios could unfold. If the court grants relief from judgment, Gemini’s exposure may be revisited, with potential implications for related parties and future settlement strategies in crypto enforcement. Conversely, if the court denies relief, the settlement could stand as a settled outcome notwithstanding the agency’s concerns about evidence credibility. Either path will influence how enforcement agencies communicate decisions, how closely settlements are scrutinized, and how firms prepare for post-settlement compliance reviews.

Institutions should monitor developments for implications on regulatory risk assessment, settlement negotiation tactics, and governance practices within crypto firms. The Gemini case also reinforces the importance of robust documentation, independent verification of critical evidence, and clear governance around internal whistleblower information—elements that matter for compliance programs, risk management, and legal strategy in a dynamic regulatory environment.

In sum, the CFTC’s push to vacate a settled judgment against Gemini signals a nuanced shift in enforcement philosophy—one that foregrounds evidentiary rigor, whistleblower credibility, and the potential for regulatory actions to be revisited in light of new information or perceived missteps. The outcome will be watched closely for its implications on enforcement precedent, cross-agency coordination, and the regulatory architecture governing crypto markets in the United States and beyond.

Closing perspective: The Gemini matter emphasizes that regulatory accountability and the integrity of enforcement processes remain central questions as crypto markets continue to mature, stabilize, and integrate with traditional financial systems. The next steps in SDNY will shape not only Gemini’s trajectory but also the contours of compliance expectations for issuers, exchanges, and other market participants navigating a complex, evolving policy landscape.

Morgan Stanley has disclosed holdings in two XRP-focused exchange-traded funds, becoming one of the latest major financial institutions to report exposure to investment products tied to Ripple’s cryptocurrency.

According to the investment bank’s Form 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the first quarter of 2026, Morgan Stanley reported owning 1,700 shares of the Volatility Shares XRP ETF and 100 shares of the Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP).

Although the positions are small relative to the firm’s overall portfolio and its larger investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum products, the filing places Morgan Stanley among a growing list of institutions gaining exposure to XRP through regulated investment vehicles.

The disclosure arrives as the bank continues to expand its presence across the crypto sector. Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley submitted an updated registration statement for a spot Solana exchange-traded fund that would trade under the ticker MSOL and hold SOL directly while staking part of the fund’s assets through third-party providers.

Why is Morgan Stanley increasing its exposure to crypto investment products?

Recent regulatory filings show that Morgan Stanley’s crypto activity now extends beyond Bitcoin-related products. The proposed Morgan Stanley Solana Trust would not only track the price of SOL but would also include staking rewards generated from a portion of the fund’s holdings.

According to the preliminary prospectus, the bank plans to select staking providers based on factors such as reliability, performance, uptime, and slashing history. The filing indicates that staking rewards would be incorporated into the trust’s overall returns.

The XRP ETF disclosure follows Morgan Stanley’s earlier efforts to expand digital asset services. After establishing a presence in the spot Bitcoin ETF market, the bank has also been working to launch Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading services through its E*Trade platform.

Earlier Morgan Stanley had identified Ripple’s payment infrastructure as a faster alternative to the traditional SWIFT network for cross-border transfers. While the bank has not disclosed a direct XRP position, the latest filing shows exposure to XRP through publicly traded ETF products.

Other financial institutions have reported similar positions in recent months. Regulatory filings have shown that Bank of America and UBS also disclosed modest holdings in XRP-linked ETFs.

Are institutional investors continuing to accumulate XRP exposure?

Fund flow data suggests institutional interest in XRP-related products has remained resilient despite weakness across parts of the digital asset market.

Data from SoSoValue showed that XRP investment products attracted $85.8 million in inflows over the past three weeks. During the same period, Bitcoin and Ethereum funds recorded net outflows of approximately $3.56 billion and $693 million, respectively.

More recently, spot XRP ETFs recorded $1.77 million in net inflows on Thursday. Bitwise’s XRP ETF accounted for the entire amount, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced significant redemptions.

In the derivatives market, activity has also remained steady. Data from Deribit showed traders positioning around a $1.60 strike price for XRP options expiring on June 26, while some contracts target a move toward $3.40 by September.

XRP (XRP) price traded near $1.30 at press time after gaining about 4% over the previous 24 hours. The token moved between $1.28 and $1.33 during that period, while trading volume declined by roughly 13%.

Anthropic is set to tap a $36 billion private credit deal led by Blackstone and Apollo to finance Google AI chips backed by Broadcom, in one of history’s largest debt financings.

Private equity giants Apollo Global Management and Blackstone are working to syndicate roughly $36 billion in debt financing that will fund Anthropic’s next wave of AI infrastructure, in what could become one of the largest private credit transactions ever executed. Reuters reported that the debt will be used to buy custom tensor processing unit chips from Google, which Anthropic will then lease as it races to scale compute for its Claude chatbot and related models.

The structure is straightforward but aggressive: Apollo and Blackstone are inviting additional investors into the $36 billion deal while planning to retain “significant portions” of the debt on their own books, according to additional report by Bloomberg, said that Broadcom, which co designs Google’s TPUs, is backstopping payments on the largest tranches, effectively using its balance sheet and its existing role in Google’s chip stack to de risk the financing. Investors have been asked to submit orders this week, with the transaction expected to close as early as next week, though terms could still shift as books are finalized.

Massive private credit bet on AI compute

For Anthropic, the deal deepens an already sprawling web of capital commitments around AI infrastructure, stacking financial leverage on top of earlier equity deals and long term capacity contracts with hyperscalers. In April, Anthropic secured access to around 3.5 gigawatts of TPU compute through an expanded partnership with Google and Broadcom, with deployments slated to begin scaling from 2027 as part of a broader $50 billion push into domestic US compute capacity. The company simultaneously announced it had raised $6.5 billion in new funding at a $965 billion post money valuation, overtaking OpenAI on paper as demand for its Claude models accelerates.

Grayscale is negotiating a $115 million HYPE-for-shares seed swap for its proposed Hyperliquid staking ETF, in a move that deepens Wall Street’s exposure to on chain derivatives.

Grayscale is negotiating with Hyper Holdings Global LP to seed its proposed Hyperliquid ETF with about 2 million HYPE tokens, worth roughly $115 million at current prices, in exchange for fund shares before listing, according to a report from FinanceFeeds.

ChainCatcher, citing the same report, said the asset manager plans to rename the product the “Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF” and list it on Nasdaq under the ticker HYPG, with staking rewards built into the structure rather than offering only spot price exposure.

Grayscale pivots from plain spot HYPE exposure

Grayscale originally filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in March for a spot ETF tied to Hyperliquid’s native token, describing a product “designed to track the price of HYPE” that would trade on Nasdaq under the ticker GHYP, with Coinbase Custody as the designated custodian.

At the time, Grayscale’s S 1 said the fund would not stake its HYPE holdings at launch, and instead included a conditional “staking provision” that could be activated later if the trust could still qualify as a grantor trust for U.S. federal tax purposes, language that reappears in the May amendment described.

The latest revision goes further by rebranding the vehicle as the Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF and explicitly allowing the trust to capture protocol rewards from staked HYPE in addition to any price appreciation, provided the SEC signs off on the structure and associated tax treatment.

Grayscale’s negotiations with Hyper Holdings Global LP over the roughly $115 million seed stake would see the fund issue ETF shares to the Hyperliquid entity in exchange for about 2 million HYPE, using those tokens as initial capital before the product begins trading.

Hyperliquid’s ETF land grab and HYPE market backdrop

The proposed HYPG fund would join a fast crowd of Hyperliquid themed products, coming just weeks after 21Shares launched the first U.S. listed Hyperliquid ETFs, including the 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF under the ticker THYP and a leveraged product trading as TXXH, both tied to HYPE and designed to give investors regulated exposure to the derivatives focused network, according to a statement cited by crypto.news.

21Shares said THYP would “integrate staking rewards tied to its HYPE holdings,” committing to stake a substantial portion of the fund’s assets, a design that Grayscale now appears intent on mirroring by turning its own vehicle into a staking ETF rather than a plain spot tracker.

Hyperliquid’s native token has been one of the cycle’s standout performers, recently hitting an all time high of just over $62 and trading near the low $60s this month, with a market capitalization in the mid ten figure range, according to a May market update from Binance Square and live data on the HYPE price page.

In parallel, on chain activity has intensified around HYPE, with large holders including Galaxy Digital and Loracle repeatedly staking and unstaking eight figure dollar amounts of tokens in recent days, according to a series of network data snapshots, underscoring how ETF issuers are inserting themselves into an already crowded capital stack.

Grayscale’s move also lands in a market where Hyperliquid’s role in on chain derivatives markets has become a recurring theme; as one recent crypto.news analysis argued, the platform’s real story lies in its use of HYPE as staking collateral to spin up permissionless perpetual futures markets, with ETF bids arriving as a secondary layer of financialization on top of that core design.

For now, HYPG remains contingent on SEC approval of both the underlying spot HYPE ETF and its staking mechanics, keeping Grayscale in the same regulatory queue as other issuers pursuing Hyperliquid themed products,neven as the firm quietly lines up nine figure token inventory and tries to ensure it is not late to the one derivatives protocol Wall Street has decided to take seriously this cycle.

What does it mean for Hyperliquid price

Grayscale’s $115m HYPE seed talks put real buy pressure under an already rising token, with 24 hour data showing traders are treating the ETF pivot as a fresh upside catalyst.

Over the past 24 hours, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is trading around $60.99, up roughly 1.05% on the day, with intraday moves between $56.43 and $61.13.

That means the roughly 2 million HYPE Grayscale is negotiating to receive as seed capital for its planned “Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF” represents about $121.98 million at current spot levels and comes against the backdrop of roughly $1.01 billion in 24 hour trading volume, a non trivial chunk of visible liquidity.

Put differently, the seed deal would soak up the equivalent of more than 12% of one day’s trading volume at current prices, if it were executed on market, which helps explain why HYPE is printing positive daily returns while many majors are flat or slightly red.

In practice, most of that inventory will move over via over the counter arrangements between Hyper Holdings Global LP and Grayscale rather than straight through order books, but the economic effect is similar: a large pool of tokens becomes ETF collateral and, once inside the wrapper, is structurally less likely to hit the open market during normal conditions.

That supply overhang relief is landing at a time when HYPE is already sitting just a few dollars below its recent all time high near $64, leaving the token with a still bullish short term profile despite only a modest 24 hour percentage move.

If the SEC ultimately signs off on the HYPG structure and Grayscale completes the $115 million seed, traders will be looking for whether 24 hour volumes stay near the current $1 billion mark or grind higher, since sustained three comma liquidity tends to support higher equilibrium prices for assets that are still supply constrained.

Wintermute is moving into prediction markets as institutional market makers race to dominate event contracts that already clear more than $20 billion a month.

Wintermute, one of crypto’s largest quantitative market makers, has begun providing continuous two way liquidity on several “leading” prediction market platforms, extending its infrastructure into event contracts that straddle both digital assets and traditional macro themes, according to The Block.

The firm told The Block it has already been streaming bilateral buy and sell quotes across multiple venues, where aggregate monthly prediction market trading volume has climbed past $20 billion in 2026, even as liquidity remains “early stage” by institutional standards.

Wintermute itself executes more than $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume across spot, derivatives and DeFi markets, and the new business line is pitched as a way to extend that cross asset machinery into event contracts ranging from elections and macro data prints to crypto specific flows.

Wintermute’s thesis on event contracts

Jake Ostrovskis, Wintermute’s head of OTC trading, argued that the underlying demand in prediction markets already resembles traditional asset classes, with structurally similar flows but thinner books and wider spreads than blue chip futures or options.

“There is clear demand for these markets, but liquidity is still insufficient,” he told The Block, saying Wintermute’s goal is to post continuous bilateral quotes that tighten spreads, deepen books and make the implied probabilities more usable for traders and institutions.

A former chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) responded to the agency’s move to vacate a $5 million settlement with cryptocurrency company Gemini.

In a Wednesday motion filed in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, the CFTC joined the Gemini Trust Company in seeking relief from the judgment of a case initially filed in June 2022. The company reached a $5 million settlement with the CFTC in January 2025 while the agency was under former US President Joe Biden.

“[T]he CFTC’s action in reversing itself on a settled case is extraordinarily unusual,” Tim Massad, a former CFTC chair and research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, told Cointelegraph. “The explanation seems to be that the staff got it wrong, not that the law was unclear.”

According to the CFTC’s motion, the agency sought relief based on claims that a whistleblower was found “not to be credible” and evidence was concealed by the commission’s previous leadership.

The motion alleged that the whistleblower, Gemini’s former chief operating officer, made false statements related to the company’s Bitcoin futures pre-certification review. The CFTC’s complaint against Gemini included allegations that the company reported inflated trading activity and volumes, misrepresenting user demand.

“Based on the CFTC’s comprehensive review, the CFTC concurs that there were significant deficiencies in [the Division of Enforcement’s] evidence and the Complaint should not have been filed,” said the filing.

Amended motion by CFTC filed in SDNY on Thursday. Source: PACER

Related: Prediction markets legal battles heat up in Minnesota, Rhode Island

Although the CFTC and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped several enforcement actions and investigations into crypto companies after Donald Trump assumed the office of the presidency, there had been no filings on the public docket in Gemini’s case since January 6, 2025.

Massad added:

“I know of nothing like this happening before, and I think the public deserves a better explanation.”

Gemini co-founders tied to the current administration

Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, co-founders of Gemini, each donated $1 million to Trump’s 2024 election campaign. The two have also met with Trump and attended White House events, including the signing ceremony for the stablecoin-related GENIUS Act. 

Source: Brian Quintenz

According to a text chain made public in September 2025 by former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz, Tyler Winklevoss raised the CFTC’s litigation as Quintenz was set to be considered for Trump’s nomination to head the agency. Trump later withdrew Quintenz’s nomination, leading to his pick, Michael Selig, being confirmed as chair and the agency’s current sole commissioner.

Notably, some of the language in the CFTC’s motion to vacate was similar to that in the Winklevoss text chain, including “abuse” of regulatory authority and “false whistleblower.” Cointelegraph reached out to Gemini for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Magazine: HYPE chases $100 target, ETH could dump below $1800: Market Moves

Bitcoin (BTC) traders have placed new buy orders near $70,000 as the price approaches a key liquidity zone. Order-book data shows more than $500 million in bid liquidity between $72,000 and $70,000, creating a demand zone that could shape BTC’s next move.

BTC buy bids form key support zone

Data from CoinGlass shows dip buyers have placed 6,235 BTC in bid liquidity between $72,000 and $70,000. At current prices, the buy orders are worth roughly $443 million.

The largest cluster sits directly above $70,000, where buyers are positioned to absorb the current selling pressure. Bid liquidity refers to limit buy orders waiting below the market price. When price trades into those orders, it can slow a decline and trigger a sharp rebound if demand absorbs available BTC supply.

BTC/USD, one-day chart, buy liquidity analysis. Source: Velo chart

Below $70,000, the next notable pocket of demand sits at $68,505, where traders have placed another 1,012 BTC worth approximately $69 million. Outside that level, the order book thins considerably, with few visible bids below $68,500.

Meanwhile, liquidation heatmap data shows about $2 billion in cumulative long positions at risk near $70,000, compared to more than $5 billion in short positions around $78,000. Once BTC taps the bid cluster near $70,000, the larger liquidity pool may trigger a sharp rebound toward overhead liquidation zones. 

BTC liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Bitcoin falls out of the global top 10 assets as market cap dips below $1.5T

RSI hits three-month low as daily BTC trend turns bearish

Bitcoin’s daily trend turned bearish after losing support at $74,800, confirming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The price is trading inside a descending channel and is currently testing support near the lower boundary around $72,000–$73,000.

The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to roughly 33, its lowest level since Feb. 24. Momentum has stayed below the neutral 50 level throughout the recent decline, suggesting sellers still control the short-term price action.

BTC/USD, one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Crypto trader Ardi outlined a similar view. The analyst said the $74,500–$75,500 region now acts as resistance across multiple time frames. A rejection from that area could keep focus on the $71,500 region, while a move through channel resistance near $76,000 may challenge the ongoing downtrend.

Options markets show investors have also been preparing for a move toward $70,000. According to Glassnode, traders spent nearly $10 million on put options with a $70,000 strike during the recent dip. 

Put options rise in value when prices fall, making them a common hedge against downside risk. Recent flows show some easing in that protection demand as traders lock in profits, though the concentration of hedging activity highlights how closely the market is watching the $70,000 level.

BTC options market analysis at $70,000. Source: Glassnode/X

Related: Bitcoin’s major holders halt buys as demand slows: CryptoQuant