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Crypto World

TON price prediction 2026-2030: the Telegram takeover

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TON price prediction 2026-2030: the Telegram takeover

Toncoin (TON) traded between $2.39 and $2.89 in late May 2026, doubling in roughly ten days after sitting at $1.30 on April 28. The catalyst was a single sentence from Pavel Durov on May 4. Telegram, the 950-million-user messaging app he founded, would replace the TON Foundation as the largest validator and primary force behind The Open Network. This isn’t a governance reshuffle. It’s a 950-million-monthly-active-user messaging platform formally fusing its entire ecosystem to one blockchain.

Summary

  • Telegram’s takeover of TON as the network’s largest validator helped drive a rally from $1.30 to $2.89, supported by technical upgrades and new ecosystem developments.
  • The bullish outlook depends on successful Telegram integration, stronger user adoption through TON Pay and Stars, and continued execution of the MTONGA roadmap.
  • Regulatory setbacks, weak user adoption, or delays in Telegram’s rollout plans could keep TON under pressure and limit long-term growth.

The Catchain 2.0 upgrade (completed April 2026) brought block finality to 0.6 seconds, among the fastest of any major Layer 1. Transaction fees dropped 6x to $0.0005 per transaction. TON Pay 2.0 launches Q2 2026 for instant in-app payments. TON Teleport launches mid-2026, bringing Bitcoin liquidity into the ecosystem. TON Tech launched Agentic Wallets April 28 for AI agents operating on the network. 

The MTONGA roadmap (“Make TON Great Again”) represents Durov’s 7-step plan for full Telegram-TON integration. Belarus approved TON for licensed banking and custody services on May 14, 2026. The network processed 1.5 billion transactions in Q1 2026 alone. TVL reached $1.2 billion. TON’s daily transaction volumes briefly surpassed Solana’s average during peak periods. 

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Telegram Ad Platform creates a demand loop: advertisers buy ad placements using TON, channel owners receive 50% crypto revenue share in TON. Telegram Stars expansion planned for Q3 2026. 

The honest read: TON is the rare Layer-1 with distribution already solved. The risk sits entirely on execution, on Telegram delivering MTONGA on schedule, on users actually converting from messaging to payments, and on Durov’s French legal situation resolving without disrupting operations. 

This piece walks through the mechanics, the bull case ($8 to $18 by 2030), the base case ($3 to $6), and the bear case ($0.80 to $2), with the specific variables that determine which one materializes.

Why TON is at $2.50 right now

The current Toncoin price reflects the resolution of one of the most concrete catalyst events in crypto for 2026: the formal Telegram takeover of the TON network announced May 4-5.

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The starting point: TON traded around $1.30 on April 28, 2026, having declined 83% from its June 2024 all-time high of $8.24. The decline reflected uncertainty about Telegram-TON relationship clarity, broader altcoin weakness, and ecosystem development questions. TON had built substantial usage metrics (1.5B transactions Q1 2026, $1.2B TVL) without translation to proportional token appreciation.

The May 4-5 catalyst: Pavel Durov announced on May 4 that Telegram will replace the TON Foundation as the driving force behind TON and become its largest validator. The exact wording: “Telegram to replace the TON Foundation as the driving force behind TON and to become its largest validator.” Short, deliberate, and structurally big.

The structural significance: this is not governance reshuffling. It’s Telegram formally fusing its 950 million monthly active users to a single blockchain. The validator role means Telegram has direct economic stake in TON network performance. The “driving force” designation indicates Telegram will lead technical development, ecosystem building, and strategic direction rather than a community-run foundation managing these functions.

The immediate market response: TON ran from $1.354 open to $1.598 intraday high on $309 million volume (324% volume explosion). Subsequent days saw continued appreciation as the market priced in the structural change. By May 7, TON reached $2.89, representing 110+% appreciation from the April 28 close.

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The Catchain 2.0 upgrade: completed in April 2026, the consensus upgrade brought block finality to 0.6 seconds, making TON among the fastest major Layer 1 blockchains. The technical capability matches or exceeds Solana (~400ms) and Aptos/Sui (sub-second). The performance enables consumer applications that require near-instant settlement.

The fee reduction: transaction fees dropped 6x to $0.0005 per transaction. The change enables economic viability for microtransactions and high-frequency consumer applications that previous fee structures couldn’t support. TON Pay 2.0 (Q2 2026 launch) targets sub-$0.0005 cost per transaction for Telegram-integrated payments.

The agentic wallets launch: April 28, 2026, TON Tech launched Agentic Wallets as an open standard for AI agents operating on the TON blockchain. The launch positions TON for the AI-crypto convergence narrative competing with NEAR’s positioning. AI agents can execute autonomous transactions through native TON infrastructure.

The MTONGA roadmap: Durov’s 7-step plan for fully integrating Telegram’s ecosystem with the TON blockchain. Sequential elements include Catchain 2.0 (completed), validator transition (in progress), TON Pay 2.0 Q2 2026, TON Teleport mid-2026 (Bitcoin liquidity integration), expanded Telegram Stars Q3 2026, and additional development phases through 2026-2027.

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The regulatory developments: Belarus approved TON for licensed banking and custody services on May 14, 2026. This represents jurisdiction-specific regulatory acceptance that may signal a pathway for additional regulatory clarity. CLARITY Act framework could provide US regulatory clarity for TON as a commodity classification.

The transaction volume context: TON processed 1.5 billion transactions in Q1 2026, briefly surpassing Solana’s daily average during peak periods. The volume reflects existing Telegram-TON integration through mini-apps, Telegram Stars, and the ad platform without yet incorporating full MTONGA roadmap deployment.

The ad platform revenue loop: Telegram Ad Platform creates a demand loop where advertisers buy ad placements using TON, and channel owners receive a 50% crypto revenue share paid in TON. Every ad purchased creates buying pressure on TON. Every payout circulates TON through the ecosystem. The demand loop is different in kind from speculative demand cycles.

What the price action signals structurally: the May 2026 catalyst event represents one of the most concrete structural transformations in crypto. The market is repricing TON for the new reality where Telegram is formally driving network development with 950M MAU distribution. The current $2.50 level reflects partial repricing plus uncertainty about the execution timeline for the MTONGA roadmap. Significant additional appreciation depends on successful execution of the announced changes.

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The bull case: $8-$18 by 2030

The bull case for TON requires the MTONGA roadmap to successfully execute across all phases plus significant user conversion to TON transaction activity.

The user conversion success: Telegram successfully converts a meaningful fraction of its 950 million monthly active users into TON transaction activity. Conservative bull case assumes 10-20% of users (95-190M users) become regular TON transactors. Average user transactions translate to substantial network volume and fee revenue. The conversion happens through TON Pay 2.0 (instant in-app payments), Telegram Stars expansion, mini-app integration, and creator economy applications.

The MTONGA roadmap execution: all 7 steps deploy successfully across the 2026-2027 timeline. TON Pay 2.0 launches Q2 2026 with seamless Telegram integration. TON Teleport mid-2026 brings Bitcoin liquidity, creating multi-chain utility. Expanded Telegram Stars Q3 2026 drives transaction volume. Additional development phases deliver promised functionality on schedule. The execution proves Telegram can deliver complex technical roadmap.

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The payment volume scaling: TON Pay processing scales to billions of transactions monthly. The transaction volume drives validator economics, fee revenue, and structural TON demand through Universal payment dynamics. Telegram becomes the largest consumer-facing crypto payments network globally, leveraging WhatsApp/Messenger competitive gap in crypto integration.

The ad platform expansion: Telegram Ad Platform revenue scales significantly through expanded targeting capabilities, additional ad formats, and creator economy integration. The advertiser TON purchases and creator TON payouts create a sustained demand loop at increasing scale. Annual ad platform volume scales from current levels to billions of dollars equivalent.

The validator economics: Telegram’s validator role shows that institutional infrastructure can sustainably operate TON validators. Validator rewards (20+% APR mentioned in some sources) create attractive returns that drive additional staking participation. Staking ratio expands creating supply lock-up dynamics.

The competitive positioning: TON captures a meaningful share of the consumer crypto market from Solana, Ethereum L2s, and other competitors. The Telegram distribution advantage proves decisive for consumer adoption. While other chains compete for DeFi and institutional positioning, TON dominates consumer crypto through its messaging app integration.

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The AI agents integration: Agentic Wallets standard enables AI agents to operate natively on TON. As AI agents become commercially significant, TON captures meaningful share through technical capability plus Telegram distribution. The positioning competes with NEAR for AI-crypto convergence.

The regulatory clarity: CLARITY Act framework provides US regulatory clarity. Belarus banking approval extends to additional jurisdictions. Durov’s legal situation resolves favorably without disrupting Telegram or TON operations. The regulatory pathway opens for institutional adoption beyond current crypto-native investor base.

The TON ETF potential: spot TON ETF eventually filed and approved following the patterns set by Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and other crypto ETFs. Institutional accessibility expands beyond crypto-native investors to broader institutional and retail capital.

If multiple bull case conditions materialize, the price targets are:

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  • 2026 year-end: $5-9
  • 2027 year-end: $7-13
  • 2028 year-end: $8-16
  • 2029 year-end: $8-17
  • 2030 year-end: $8-18

The bull case requires sustained execution across user conversion, technical deployment, ecosystem expansion, and regulatory navigation. The most probable bull case outcome per multiple analyst frameworks targets $6-15 range over 2-4 years if Telegram-TON integration delivers expected user adoption and transaction volume.

The base case: $3-$6 by 2030

The base case assumes meaningful but not big MTONGA roadmap execution plus moderate user conversion.

The user conversion scenario: Telegram converts 3-8% of 950M MAU (28-76M users) to regular TON transaction activity. The conversion is meaningful but doesn’t reach the scale required for the bull case. User adoption develops gradually as TON Pay 2.0 launches and Stars expands.

The MTONGA execution: most roadmap steps deploy with some delays or modified scope. TON Pay 2.0 launches but with an extended rollout timeline. TON Teleport ships but Bitcoin liquidity integration takes longer to scale. Telegram Stars expansion happens but reaches a smaller portion of the user base than the bull case envisions.

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The payment volume: TON Pay processes meaningful but modest transaction volume relative to the bull case. Hundreds of millions of monthly transactions rather than billions. Fee revenue grows from current levels without reaching transformative scale.

The ad platform: Telegram Ad Platform revenue continues at a moderate pace. Some advertisers adopt TON payments, some channel owners receive TON revenue share. The demand loop functions without explosive growth.

The validator economics: Telegram maintains validator role successfully. Additional institutional validators join. Staking ratio expands moderately. Validator economics stays sustainable.

The competitive dynamics: TON holds its position as a significant consumer-focused Layer 1, but faces continued competition from Solana, Ethereum L2s, and others. Market share is stable or slightly expanding rather than dominating consumer crypto.

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The AI agents adoption: Agentic Wallets achieve some traction, but AI-crypto convergence happens across multiple platforms. TON captures specific use cases without dominating the AI agents market.

The regulatory environment: regulatory clarity develops gradually. Some jurisdictions approve TON for specific uses. Durov’s legal situation resolves without major disruption. ETF approval comes in 2027-2028 with modest initial flows.

Base case targets:

  • 2026 year-end: $2.50-4
  • 2027 year-end: $3-4.50
  • 2028 year-end: $3-5
  • 2029 year-end: $3-5.50
  • 2030 year-end: $3-6

The base case represents meaningful appreciation from current $2.50 levels plus continued volatility around catalyst developments. The support comes from Telegram integration and ecosystem development without producing big price action.

The bear case: $0.80-$2 by 2030

The bear case requires either Telegram-specific setbacks or execution failures disrupting the MTONGA thesis.

The Durov regulatory action: Durov’s legal situation in France or other jurisdictions escalates significantly. Telegram faces restrictions on operations in major markets. The platform’s ability to drive TON integration is compromised by external regulatory pressure on Telegram’s broader business.

The user conversion failure: Telegram users don’t convert to TON transaction activity at meaningful scale. The 950M MAU number proves to be a vanity metric rather than predictive of crypto adoption. Telegram users use the messaging app without engaging with crypto features. TON Pay 2.0 launches but achieves low adoption.

The MTONGA execution failures: roadmap steps face significant delays, scope reductions, or quality issues. Telegram’s technical team encounters challenges delivering complex blockchain infrastructure. Multiple roadmap items get delayed beyond their announced timelines.

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The competitive displacement: Solana captures consumer crypto market share through superior performance, deeper liquidity, and broader application ecosystem. WhatsApp or Messenger eventually launch competing crypto integrations leveraging their larger user bases. Telegram-TON loses competitive advantage.

The Telegram strategic shift: Telegram leadership changes priorities, reducing TON integration commitment. Alternative crypto strategies (Telegram Open Network 2.0, multi-chain approach, exit from crypto) emerge. The validator transition is reversed or significantly modified.

The validator economics failure: validator participation declines as institutional validators exit. Staking yields decline. The 20+% APR proves unsustainable. Network security concerns emerge.

The AI agents disappointment: agentic wallets fail to attract meaningful AI agent adoption. NEAR or other AI-focused chains capture the AI-crypto convergence market. TON’s positioning becomes incremental rather than differentiated.

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The regulatory deterioration: CLARITY Act stalls or fails. International regulatory pressure increases on consumer crypto applications. Telegram faces restrictions on cryptocurrency features specifically. ETF approval is delayed indefinitely or rejected.

The technical failures: Catchain 2.0 or subsequent upgrades encounter post-deployment issues. Network outages affect user experience. Security incidents damage trust. The technical foundation supporting consumer adoption develops vulnerabilities.

The macro deterioration: broader crypto market weakness disproportionately impacts altcoins including TON. Consumer crypto applications face headwinds during risk-off periods.

Bear case targets:

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  • 2026 year-end: $0.90-1.80
  • 2027 year-end: $0.80-1.80
  • 2028 year-end: $0.80-1.90
  • 2029 year-end: $0.80-1.95
  • 2030 year-end: $0.80-2

The bear case represents significant downside from current levels but assumes TON retains some ecosystem positioning. Complete failure scenarios (price below $0.50) would require Telegram completely abandoning TON integration plus severe market dynamics.

The five variables that determine outcome

Five specific variables determine which scenario materializes.

Variable 1: TON Pay 2.0 launch and adoption (Q2 2026). The most important single near-term variable. Successful launch with meaningful user adoption validates Telegram-TON integration thesis. Delayed or limited launch signals execution challenges. Monitor: TON Pay 2.0 launch announcements, user activation metrics, transaction volumes through Pay 2.0, merchant adoption patterns, and Telegram integration completeness.

Variable 2: MTONGA roadmap execution across staying steps. Catchain 2.0 completed. Validator transition in progress. TON Pay 2.0 Q2 2026. TON Teleport mid-2026. Telegram Stars expansion Q3 2026.

Variable 2: MTONGA roadmap execution across staying steps. Catchain 2.0 completed. Validator transition in progress. TON Pay 2.0 Q2 2026. TON Teleport mid-2026. Telegram Stars expansion Q3 2026. Monitor: Pavel Durov public statements on roadmap progress, technical deliverable announcements, specific milestone completion dates, and quality assessments of deployed features.

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Variable 3: User conversion to TON transaction activity. 950M Telegram MAU represents potential. Actual conversion to regular TON transactors is what drives sustainable value. Monitor: TON network active wallet counts, mini-app usage growth, Stars transaction volumes, ad platform participation rates, and overall on-chain activity metrics.

Variable 4: Validator transition status and economics. Telegram replacing TON Foundation as the largest validator is in progress. Sustainable validator economics with attractive yields drives staking participation. Monitor: validator participation rates, staking APR sustainability, TON staked supply growth, additional institutional validator announcements, and validator transition completion timeline.

Variable 5: Regulatory environment specifically affecting Telegram and TON. Durov’s legal situation, CLARITY Act passage affecting TON classification, additional jurisdiction approvals (following the Belarus pattern), and international regulatory dynamics. Monitor: Durov-related legal developments, regulatory announcements affecting Telegram, country-specific TON approvals or restrictions, and ETF filing developments.

The variables interact significantly. TON Pay 2.0 success drives user conversion. MTONGA roadmap execution validates Telegram commitment. Validator economics affect network security. Regulatory clarity enables broader institutional adoption. User conversion creates demand that affects everything else.

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What this means for TON holders and traders

For current TON holders, the practical implication is that the asset has undergone a fundamental structural shift through the May 2026 Telegram takeover announcement. The five variables framework provides a way to evaluate whether the MTONGA roadmap is delivering expected outcomes. The current price reflects partial repricing for the new structural reality, with significant additional appreciation depending on execution.

For potential TON buyers, the practical implication is that entry at current $2.50 levels represents the post-catalyst price after the initial structural shift announcement. The risk-reward depends on assessment of MTONGA execution probability and user conversion potential. The Telegram distribution advantage is unique among Layer-1 tokens, but execution risk is concentrated in Telegram’s ability to deliver complex blockchain infrastructure.

For traders specifically, the practical implication is that TON has shown significant catalyst sensitivity (110+% appreciation in 10 days following announcement). Trading around MTONGA roadmap milestones requires monitoring Pavel Durov announcements, technical deliverable dates, and user adoption metrics. The catalyst-driven volatility creates both opportunities and risks.

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For institutional investors evaluating TON allocation, the practical implication is TON offers exposure to consumer crypto adoption through unique Telegram distribution. The investment case depends on the belief that messaging app integration can produce sustainable crypto adoption at scale. Belarus banking approval and the CLARITY Act framework provide a regulatory pathway. ETF accessibility may develop following set crypto ETF patterns.

For Telegram users curious about TON adoption, the practical implication is the platform is actively building toward seamless crypto integration. TON Pay 2.0 (Q2 2026) and Telegram Stars expansion (Q3 2026) will provide direct user touchpoints for TON activity. The user experience improvements may make crypto more accessible than current alternatives.

The honest bottom line

On May 4, Pavel Durov announced that Telegram, not the TON Foundation, would run TON. Two days later, TON doubled. The market wasn’t pricing a governance reshuffle. It was pricing a messaging app with 950 million monthly active users formally tying its product roadmap to a single blockchain. TON Pay 2.0 is the next test. If it ships in Q2 and a meaningful slice of Telegram users actually use it for payments, the May rally is the beginning. If it slips or lands without traction, $2.50 is the top, not the floor.

The May 2026 Telegram takeover is fundamentally big. Pavel Durov’s announcement that Telegram replaces TON Foundation as the largest validator and primary driving force represents 950 million monthly active users formally fusing to one blockchain. This is unprecedented in crypto: no other Layer 1 has comparable distribution advantage through an existing major platform.

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The technical capabilities are competitive. Catchain 2.0 produces 0.6-second finality matching or exceeding Solana, Aptos, Sui. Transaction fees at $0.0005 enable microtransactions. TON Pay 2.0 will integrate directly into Telegram for instant in-app payments. The technical foundation supports the consumer adoption thesis.

The main risks are real and material: Durov’s legal situation in France could escalate, affecting Telegram operations. User conversion to TON activity may prove difficult despite distribution access. MTONGA roadmap execution requires Telegram to deliver complex blockchain infrastructure on schedule. Competitive pressure from Solana and emerging consumer chains. Telegram strategic shifts could alter TON commitment.

The 2030 price range across scenarios is wide: $0.80-$18 depending on how the structural variables resolve. The base case ($3-$6) represents meaningful appreciation from current $2.50 levels, assuming MTONGA executes successfully with moderate user conversion. The bull case ($8-$18) requires big user conversion plus successful technical execution. The bear case ($0.80-$2) assumes execution failures or regulatory setbacks.

TON’s distribution problem is solved. What hasn’t been proven is whether Telegram can ship blockchain infrastructure on schedule. The distribution advantage is real and unique. The execution challenge is substantial. The next 6-12 months will determine whether Telegram can deliver the MTONGA roadmap on the announced timeline.

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The TON Pay 2.0 launch is the most important near-term catalyst variable. Q2 2026 deployment with meaningful user adoption would validate the integration thesis. Delayed or limited launch would signal execution challenges.

User conversion is the most important sustainability variable. 950M MAU represents potential. Actual conversion to regular TON transactors determines whether the distribution advantage translates to sustainable token demand.

The Durov regulatory situation is the most important downside variable. Adverse developments could disrupt Telegram operations, affecting TON integration. Favorable resolution would remove an overhang affecting institutional positioning.

For 2026 specifically, expect TON to trade in the $2-$5 range with significant catalysts around TON Pay 2.0 launch, MTONGA roadmap milestones, user adoption metrics, and Durov-related developments. The support at $2-$2.50 reflects current Telegram integration positioning. The upside ($4-$7) depends on a successful TON Pay 2.0 launch and meaningful user adoption.

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For 2027-2030, the structural variables compound. Sustained execution across roadmap delivery, user conversion, validator economics, and regulatory clarity produces a bull case trajectory. Deterioration produces a bear case. The base case assumes mixed outcomes producing meaningful appreciation.

The TON story is ultimately about whether messaging app distribution can produce sustainable crypto adoption at consumer scale. The early evidence is promising: 1.5B Q1 2026 transactions, $1.2B TVL, growing ad platform revenue, Telegram formal commitment through validator transition. The execution challenges are substantial but identifiable. The next phase will determine whether TON achieves the consumer crypto positioning that 950M MAU distribution makes possible.

Frequently Asked Questions

What happened with Pavel Durov’s TON announcement?

On May 4, 2026, Telegram CEO Pavel Durov announced Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the driving force behind The Open Network and become its largest validator. This represents 950 million monthly active users formally fusing to one blockchain. TON surged from $1.30 (April 28) to $2.89 (May 7), representing 110+% appreciation in 10 days.

Can Toncoin reach $10 by 2030?

$10 is within the bull case range ($8-$18 by 2030). Required conditions: TON Pay 2.0 successful Q2 2026 launch with meaningful adoption, MTONGA roadmap executing across all 7 steps, significant user conversion from Telegram’s 950M MAU to TON activity, Telegram Stars expansion driving transaction volume, validator economics scaling sustainably, and a regulatory environment supporting institutional access. The base case for 2030 is $3-$6.

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What is the MTONGA roadmap?

MTONGA stands for “Make TON Great Again” – Pavel Durov’s 7-step roadmap for fully integrating Telegram’s ecosystem with the TON blockchain. Sequential elements include: Catchain 2.0 upgrade (completed April 2026), validator transition (in progress), TON Pay 2.0 (Q2 2026), TON Teleport for Bitcoin liquidity (mid-2026), expanded Telegram Stars (Q3 2026), and additional development phases through 2026-2027.

How does TON’s 0.6-second finality compare to other chains?

Catchain 2.0 brought TON’s block finality to 0.6 seconds, among the fastest of any major Layer 1. Comparison: Solana ~400ms (Alpenglow target 150ms), Aptos sub-second, Sui sub-second, Ethereum L1 ~12 seconds, Bitcoin ~10 minutes. TON’s performance enables consumer applications requiring near-instant settlement and supports microtransactions at $0.0005 fee level.

What are the main risks to TON’s bull case?

Six primary risks: (1) Pavel Durov’s legal situation escalating, affecting Telegram operations, (2) user conversion failing to materialize at meaningful scale, (3) MTONGA roadmap execution facing significant delays or scope reductions, (4) competitive displacement by Solana or emerging consumer chains, (5) Telegram strategic shifts reducing TON integration commitment, (6) regulatory deterioration affecting Telegram messenger or TON specifically.

What is TON Pay 2.0?

TON Pay 2.0 is the next major version of TON’s Layer 2 payment network, designed specifically for the Telegram ecosystem. It aims to make peer-to-peer and merchant payments nearly instant and extremely cheap, targeting sub-$0.0005 cost per transaction. The Q2 2026 launch is positioned to enable seamless microtransactions for Telegram’s billion-plus user base.

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How does TON compare to Solana for consumer crypto?

Both target consumer applications with high performance. Solana advantages: deeper DeFi ecosystem ($5.5B TVL vs TON’s $1.2B), broader institutional adoption (Solana ETFs trading vs no TON ETFs yet), longer track record. TON advantages: 950M MAU Telegram distribution advantage (Solana has no comparable consumer platform), formal validator commitment from a major tech platform, Catchain 2.0 sub-second finality. Different consumer crypto adoption pathways.

Should I buy TON given the recent rally?

This piece does not provide investment advice. Current $2.50 represents partial repricing after the May 2026 shift. Further appreciation depends on MTONGA roadmap execution and user conversion. The asymmetric upside potential (if execution succeeds) versus downside risk (if execution fails or Durov regulatory issues escalate) requires individual assessment. The five-variable framework provides objective monitoring signals.

This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and price predictions are inherently speculative. The figures and analysis described reflect data available as of late May 2026. Always do your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.

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Bitcoin’s biggest quantum risk may not be wallet keys. An early investor fears something bigger

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Key initiatives aimed at quantum-proofing the world's largest blockchain

A venture capitalist who has spent a decade backing deep-tech and quantum hardware startups says the bitcoin industry is fixated on the wrong half of the quantum problem, the wallet keys instead of the encrypted messages already moving between exchanges, bridges and custodians today.

“The financial system’s most dangerous vulnerability isn’t stored data, it’s the data
moving between institutions right now,” Andrew Gault, CEO of networking firm ZeroTier, told CoinDesk in a recent chat.

“Every interbank message, every payment authentication record, and every digital signature traveling across a network today is being collected by sophisticated adversaries who don’t need to read it yet,” he noted.

“CISOs and security teams have been trained to protect data at rest. What nobody wants to say out loud is that the adversary’s strategy has changed. They’re patient, they have storage, and they’re building a library of today’s encrypted traffic to decrypt the moment quantum capability crosses the threshold,” he added.

Gault is CEO of networking firm ZeroTier and a founding partner of 7percent Ventures, a London- and San Francisco-based deep-tech firm whose portfolio includes British quantum-computing startup Universal Quantum.

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The Google Quantum AI research that rattled bitcoin in March showed a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive a bitcoin private key from an exposed public key in about nine minutes, came from outside his portfolio.

The conversation since that paper has centered on the roughly 6.9 million BTC sitting in addresses with exposed public keys and Bitcoin’s missing post-quantum migration plan.

But Gault says the more urgent exposure is the data already being collected off the open internet for decryption later, regardless of whether a working quantum computer exists yet.

Google’s own security engineers have moved the same direction. In a March post, the company set 2029 as its target for completing a post-quantum cryptography migration, citing progress on quantum hardware, error correction and factoring resource estimates.

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The post, written by Google vice president of security engineering Heather Adkins and senior cryptography engineer Sophie Schmieg, said the company has reprioritized its internal threat model to focus on authentication services and digital signatures, the same wire-level signing infrastructure Gault has been pointing at.

“The threat to encryption is relevant today with store-now-decrypt-later attacks,” the post said.

The strategy driving that urgency is known in cryptography circles as “harvest now, decrypt later.” It assumes adversaries don’t need to read encrypted traffic today, only store it cheaply until a sufficiently powerful quantum computer arrives.

Citi modeled the bank-system version of the scenario in February, estimating a quantum-enabled attack on a single top-five U.S. bank’s access to the Fedwire Funds Service payment system could trigger a $2 trillion to $3.3 trillion cascade across the U.S. economy, equal to a 10% to 17% decline in real GDP.

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The Global Risk Institute, cited in the same Citi report, puts the probability of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer arriving by 2034 at between 19% and 34%.

For crypto, the wire-level surface is broader than the wallet one. Cross-chain bridge proofs, exchange API authentication packets, signed transactions broadcast and archived in public mempools, and the back-channel signing traffic between cold storage and trading desks all sit on the same vulnerability spectrum as the bank-grade encryption Citi was modeling.

CoinShares argued in a February report that the wallet-key fear is overstated, estimating only about 10,200 BTC are concentrated enough to move markets if stolen.

Gault’s worry is a different one. “The particularly uncomfortable reality for financial institutions is that the authentication records being harvested aren’t just sensitive,” he said. “It’s the proof layer that determines who owns what, who authorized which transaction, and who bears legal liability.”

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Ethereum (ETH) has launched a coordinated post-quantum migration, but Bitcoin has not done the same. Major crypto exchanges and custodians, where most of the signing traffic lives, have not publicly committed to one either.

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FBI Crypto Seizure Hits Record $8B in Global Scam Crackdown

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • FBI crypto seizure crackdown marks one of the largest crypto forfeitures in US history.
  • Authorities tied 127,000 bitcoin seizure to Prince Holding Group CEO Chen Zhi fraud network.
  • Operation Blackout dismantled scam compounds across Asia and freed nearly 2,000 trafficked workers.
  • IC3 reported 72,000 crypto fraud complaints in 2025 with losses exceeding $7.5 billion total.

The FBI has seized roughly $8 billion in cryptocurrency in a sweeping international crackdown on scam compounds.

Authorities also arrested hundreds of suspects tied to coordinated fraud and money laundering networks. The operation stretched across Asia, the Middle East, and parts of Africa, targeting organized criminal infrastructure. 

Officials linked the case to one of the largest crypto forfeitures in U.S. enforcement history.

FBI Crypto Seizure Crackdown Targets $8B Scam Compound Networks

The FBI crypto seizure crackdown centered on more than 127,000 bitcoin tied to Chen Zhi, according to Fox News reporting. The assets pushed total recovered crypto to over $8 billion at the time of seizure. 

Valuations may have exceeded $15 billion during earlier market peaks. Officials described the action as a historic asset recovery milestone.

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Chen Zhi leads Cambodia-based Prince Holding Group, which authorities accuse of running large-scale fraud operations. Federal charges include wire fraud and conspiracy to launder money. 

Investigators allege the network operated guarded compounds targeting global online scam victims. Law enforcement continues expanding related financial probes.

Authorities also linked the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army to scam compound activity in Myanmar. The armed group operates in conflict regions and faces U.S. sanctions for prior fraud involvement. 

Officials classify it as a transnational criminal organization tied to cyber-enabled theft. Investigators flagged its links to broader Chinese organized crime networks.

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The seizure forms part of a wider enforcement push against coordinated crypto-enabled fraud systems. Agencies said these networks combine digital scams with forced labor operations. 

Multiple jurisdictions supported asset tracing and crypto wallet identification efforts. The scale of recovered funds highlights the industrial nature of the fraud economy.

Operation Blackout Exposes Global Crypto Fraud and Trafficking Pipelines

Operation Blackout coordinated multiple enforcement actions, including Zephyr Exodus, Sand Dollar, and Haochen. These operations targeted scam compounds operating across Asia and the Middle East. 

Authorities seized additional crypto assets and dismantled recruitment pipelines used by criminal groups. Officials said the campaign disrupted cross-border fraud infrastructure.

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The FBI reported freeing nearly 2,000 trafficked workers during coordinated raids on scam facilities. Victims were often recruited under false job promises and then forced into scam operations. 

The Internet Crime Complaint Center recorded about 72,000 fraud complaints in 2025. Reported losses exceeded $7.5 billion, with officials warning of underreporting.

Investigators partnered with Starlink to track terminals used in scam compound communications. The cooperation led to the suspension of more than 7,000 terminals in Myanmar. 

Authorities said criminal groups used satellite links to evade traditional monitoring systems. The disruption weakened multiple active fraud hubs across the region.

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Operation Level Up focused on victim identification and fraud prevention across crypto investment schemes. The FBI notified about 8,935 victims who were unknowingly exposed to scams. 

Officials estimated the intervention prevented roughly $562 million in losses. The program aims to reduce exposure to high-volume crypto fraud networks.

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Bitcoin Retail Sentiment Still Matters, Says Swan Bitcoin CEO

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Bitcoin Retail Sentiment Still Matters, Says Swan Bitcoin CEO

Despite the growing institutional presence in crypto, retail sentiment is just as important as it was when Wall Street was largely on the sidelines, according to Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten.

“It still does. You have to remember it’s not like BlackRock owns the Bitcoin and Fidelity owns the Bitcoin. It’s a bunch of retail accounts mostly that actually buy that,” Klippsten said during an interview with Cointelegraph published to YouTube on Tuesday.

Cory Klippsten spoke to Cointelegraph at BitcoinVegas 2026. Source: Cointelegraph

“You know they’re buying it in a wrapper. But they still have to take real supply and custody it. And it comes out of the supply. So, you know, it’s still it is real demand in ETFs,” Klippsten said, adding:

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“There are some paper products and futures and things like that that are weird and take a little while to kind of work through the system. There is something to the idea that there is more supply in certain ways. But at the end of the day, if you want real on-chain Bitcoin, the fact that you can get it is what makes Bitcoin unique.”

US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted a combined $2.90 billion in net outflows since May 15, according to Farside data, while Bitcoin has slid approximately 9.5% over the same period. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $73,630, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin is down 2.87% over the past 30 days. (CoinMarketCap)

Meanwhile, sentiment toward the crypto market has been volatile in 2026. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 23 on Friday, signaling that investors are taking a cautious approach to the crypto market.

Bitcoin price outlook for 2026: slim chances

Klippsten said his outlook on Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high in 2026 is now looking slim. 

Related: Bitcoin falls out of the global top 10 assets as market cap dips below $1.5T

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He said he thought there was around a 50% chance we’d see a new all-time high this year when Bitcoin was still trading around $95,000 earlier this year, but given it has declined around 23% since then, his odds have gone down.

“I thought there was probably like a 50% chance that we’d see a new all-time high this year. And I’d say, given that we’re still in the 70s and, you know, and that we went all the way down to 60, I’d probably handicap that down to like 20 or 25% chance that we get a new [high]” he said.

Magazine: ETH bears growling, Tom Lee’s buying, XRP to ‘explode’: Market Moves

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Cash App Investing Partners With Apex Clearing to Scale Its Platform

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Cash App Investing selected Apex Clearing after an extensive evaluation to support its next phase of growth.
  • Apex’s AscendOS™ platform offers real-time processing, 24×5 trading, and multi-asset class support for users.
  • Existing Cash App features like dividend reinvesting and Round Ups remain fully intact under the new partnership.
  • The API-first infrastructure gives Cash App the flexibility to roll out new investment products at a faster pace.

Cash App Investing has selected Apex Clearing Corporation as its new clearing provider, marking a key move in its growth strategy. The partnership combines Cash App’s user-focused investing tools with Apex’s AscendOS™ technology platform.

Cash App Investing serves millions of customers through Block, Inc.’s Cash App, which reports more than 59 million monthly transacting actives. The alliance is designed to support continued scaling and product innovation for everyday investors.

A Technology-Driven Alliance Built for Growth

Apex was chosen following an extensive evaluation process by Cash App Investing. The decision reflects a clear need for real-time, scalable infrastructure.

Apex’s AscendOS™ platform is built specifically for modern digital investing environments. It supports high-volume, concurrent user activity without sacrificing compliance or security.

Cash App Investing customers will continue using the familiar Cash App interface throughout the transition. The partnership preserves existing features such as dividend reinvesting and the Round Ups tool.

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Apex’s infrastructure adds robust security protocols to the experience. These systems are designed to handle real-time processing at significant scale.

Apex CEO Bill Capuzzi spoke directly to the reliability element of the deal. “Real-time technology, reliability that earns trust, and a partner built to support their momentum,” he said.

He added that Cash App has built something remarkable for everyday investors. In his view, the collaboration positions Cash App to continue scaling its platform and user base.

The technology stack also opens access to multiple asset classes for future product development. This broadens the potential roadmap for Cash App Investing going forward.

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Both firms went through an extensive evaluation before finalizing the arrangement. The outcome reflects a shared focus on infrastructure that can grow with user demand.

Expanding Capabilities Through AscendOS™

Logan Kolar, CEO of Cash App Investing, pointed to the API-first design as a decisive factor. “Apex’s real-time infrastructure and API-first approach give us the flexibility to innovate quickly,” he stated.

He added that the platform ensures customers receive the reliability and protection they expect. The alignment in mission—making investing more accessible—drove the strategic fit between both firms.

AscendOS™ brings capabilities that extend well beyond standard clearing functions. The platform supports a variety of account types alongside multiple asset classes.

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It also enables 24×5 trading, which is increasingly expected in digital investing environments. These features allow Cash App to expand its offerings without building infrastructure from scratch.

The API-first architecture supports rapid feature development cycles across the board. Cash App can roll out new tools without long delays in the development process.

The system also maintains regulatory compliance throughout that process. Speed and security are built to work together rather than compete.

For everyday investors using Cash App, surface-level changes will remain minimal. The core benefit lies in the infrastructure supporting their accounts behind the scenes.

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Improved reliability, faster processing, and a wider future product range are the expected outcomes. The partnership sets the stage for what both companies describe as the next chapter of growth.

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SEC Chair Paul Atkins Predicts CLARITY Act Passage and Trump Approval

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • SEC Chair Paul Atkins said he expects the CLARITY Act to pass Congress and become law.
  • The bill aims to establish clear rules separating digital commodities from securities.
  • Senate Banking Committee approval has moved the CLARITY Act closer to a full vote.
  • The framework seeks to keep crypto innovation and investment activity within the United States.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins has expressed confidence that the CLARITY Act will clear Congress and receive President Donald Trump’s signature.

His remarks arrive as crypto market structure legislation gains momentum in Washington, bringing the United States closer to establishing a comprehensive framework for digital assets.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins Sees CLARITY Act Becoming Law

SEC Chair Paul Atkins delivered a strong vote of confidence for the CLARITY Act during a recent interview, signaling growing optimism around crypto legislation in the United States.

According to Atkins, Congress is expected to approve the measure, allowing President Trump to sign it into law and provide a formal legal foundation for digital asset oversight.

Atkins emphasized that regulatory uncertainty has remained one of the largest obstacles facing the crypto industry.

He explained that businesses often struggle to determine which regulations apply to their products, creating unnecessary costs and delays. Without clear rules, many firms have chosen to develop and launch services outside the United States.

The SEC Chair stated that the CLARITY Act would help resolve those concerns by establishing a statutory framework for digital assets.

He noted that regulatory certainty would allow innovators to operate domestically while giving investors greater confidence in the market.

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His comments come as the Senate Banking Committee advances the legislation toward a full Senate vote. The bill’s progress marks one of the most important developments for crypto regulation in recent years and reflects increasing support for a structured approach to digital asset oversight.

CLARITY Act Aims to Define Crypto Rules and Strengthen US Leadership

A central objective of the CLARITY Act is to create clear distinctions between digital commodities and securities. The legislation is designed to reduce overlap between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, providing market participants with a more predictable regulatory environment.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also backed efforts to move the bill forward. Supporters argue that the framework would help prevent conflicting interpretations from federal regulators while encouraging blockchain innovation within the United States.

Atkins maintained that America already holds a leading position in global crypto markets but warned that maintaining that advantage requires clear and consistent regulation. He said previous uncertainty pushed innovation offshore and limited opportunities for domestic growth.

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The CLARITY Act aligns with President Trump’s broader goal of making the United States a global center for digital asset development.

While additional legislative hurdles remain, the bill’s recent progress has increased expectations that comprehensive crypto market structure reform could soon become a reality.

For the crypto industry, the coming Senate vote now represents one of the most closely watched developments in Washington as lawmakers move toward establishing long-term rules for the digital asset economy.

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Coinbase Extends Global Crypto Derivatives to U.S. Institutions

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Crypto Breaking News

Coinbase Financial Markets has begun offering US institutional clients access to global crypto options and perpetual futures through a regulated futures commission merchant, including connectivity to Deribit’s crypto options platform.

Coinbase said the launch follows guidance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that allows a regulated futures commission merchant to connect US clients with global crypto derivatives liquidity. The company stressed that Coinbase Financial Markets is the first CFTC-regulated FCM to provide such access.

Deribit, which Coinbase acquired in August 2025 as part of its expansion into crypto derivatives, is the largest crypto options exchange by open interest. CoinGlass data shows Deribit held roughly $31 billion in Bitcoin options open interest on May 27, compared with about $2.7 billion on OKX, $1.8 billion on Binance and $1.2 billion on Bybit.

According to Friday’s announcement, institutional clients can begin onboarding immediately, while broader access, including retail, is expected to follow later.

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Key takeaways

  • Coinbase becomes the first CFTC-regulated futures commission merchant to connect US institutional clients to global crypto options and perpetual futures liquidity via Deribit.
  • Deribit dominates Bitcoin options open interest, with roughly $31 billion in BTC options as of late May, highlighting liquidity concentration on a single platform.
  • US derivatives venues are expanding crypto offerings as regulators signal a path to onshore perpetual futures and new regulated products, including CME’s crypto index futures and Bitcoin Volatility futures, while exchanges such as Kraken pursue expansion through Bitnomial.
  • The regulatory backdrop features ongoing moves by US agencies toward onshoring certain crypto derivatives, including a September 2025 joint SEC/CFTC statement and accompanying guidance on 24/7 trading and clearing.

US-regulated access deepens crypto derivatives usage

The Coinbase arrangement leverages an onshore path for US institutions seeking exposure to a broader derivatives liquidity pool beyond domestic venues. By connecting US clients to Deribit through a regulated FCM, Coinbase aims to offer regulated access to a dominant offshore options market, aligning with a broader push to reconcile offshore liquidity with US supervision.

Institutional onboarding is available immediately, with a plan to roll out broader access, including retail participation, at a later stage. The move reflects a growing appetite among large traders for regulated pathways to global crypto derivatives, alongside continued regulatory scrutiny of products and venues offering such exposure.

Deribit’s liquidity position reinforces market dynamics

Deribit’s leadership in BTC options open interest underscores a liquidity concentration that has persisted in crypto derivatives. With roughly $31 billion in Bitcoin options open interest as of May 27, it stacks up against peer venues and shapes the depth of liquidity for complex strategies like spreads, hedges, and volatility plays. The data points cited by CoinGlass show OKX at about $2.7 billion, Binance at $1.8 billion, and Bybit at $1.2 billion in BTC options open interest at the same snapshot.

The partnership with Coinbase could bolster Deribit’s role as a preferred onramp for US institutions seeking regulated access to offshore liquidity pools, potentially affecting spreads, dynamic hedging costs, and the availability of sophisticated options structures for large players.

Regulatory momentum and market diversification

The launch arrives amid a broader regulatory discourse about bringing crypto derivatives onshore. In a joint statement published in September 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC signaled they would explore ways to bring perpetual futures trading onshore, noting that such contracts have largely remained offshore due to regulatory and jurisdictional constraints. The agencies said they could consider steps to “onshore perpetual contracts” and bring activity currently flowing to foreign platforms back to regulated US markets.

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In parallel, US derivatives venues have been expanding their crypto offerings. CME Group has announced plans to launch a crypto index futures contract tracking a basket of seven cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and XRP. Days later, CME unveiled Bitcoin Volatility futures, a regulated product that will settle to a 30-day measure of expected Bitcoin volatility derived from CME options markets.

Other US players are pursuing similar growth trajectories. Kraken’s parent Payward completed its acquisition of Bitnomial, a CFTC-regulated derivatives platform that earlier this year launched the first US-regulated futures contracts tied to Injective’s INJ token, following a prior launch for Aptos earlier in the year.

Additionally, CFTC staff published guidance on 24/7 trading, clearing and settlement for crypto asset derivatives, arguing that such markets may be particularly well suited to round-the-clock activity.

Investors and practitioners should watch how onboarding evolves for retail participants, how liquidity shifts between onshore and offshore venues, and what regulatory clarifications emerge as US authorities continue to shape the trajectory of crypto derivatives in a regulated framework.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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ICE CEO questions unequal treatment of onchain perpetuals market

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ICE CEO questions unequal treatment of onchain perpetuals market

Jeffrey Sprecher, chief executive officer of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), has said the company wants equal regulatory treatment as it evaluates opportunities in the fast-growing market for onchain perpetual futures.

Summary

  • ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher said regulators should clarify whether traditional exchanges can offer onchain perpetual futures under the same rules applied to existing platforms.
  • CE has held multiple discussions with Hyperliquid as the exchange operator explores opportunities in blockchain-based derivatives markets.
  • Growing interest in 24-hour trading of oil and other assets has pushed regulators to consider how perpetual futures should be supervised, according to Sprecher.

Speaking at a Bernstein conference on May 27, Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeffrey Sprecher said the company has been discussing blockchain-based perpetual futures with regulators while also holding multiple meetings with the Hyperliquid team to better understand the fast-growing sector.

Sprecher’s comments come weeks after Bloomberg reported that ICE and CME Group had spoken with Capitol Hill officials about potential risks tied to Hyperliquid’s markets, particularly those connected to global oil trading. 

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According to Sprecher, those discussions were not an effort to target Hyperliquid but part of ICE’s effort to determine whether existing regulations would permit similar products.

“What we are saying to the regulators is, ‘Can we do that?’ Why are you prohibiting us from doing this when it’s already happening? And can’t we have a level playing field?” – Jeffrey Sprecher.

Rather than treating onchain platforms as competitors to be challenged, ICE has been engaging directly with them, according to Sprecher. He said the exchange operator has been learning how decentralized perpetual markets function while helping crypto native firms understand traditional derivatives markets.

“We’re not freaked out about it. We’re actually talking to these people and learning about it.”

ICE explores onchain commodities trading

Interest from ICE comes as blockchain-based perpetual futures attract growing volumes from traders looking for uninterrupted access to markets.

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Earlier this month, JPMorgan analysts noted that Hyperliquid had seen rising activity from non-crypto participants using its 24-hour markets to trade oil exposure outside traditional exchange hours. 

Sprecher said recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have drawn additional attention to weekend trading activity because major developments often occur when conventional markets are closed.

At the same time, ICE has been building ties with crypto firms that already operate in the sector. Last week, the company announced plans with OKX to launch oil perpetual contracts linked to ICE Brent Crude and WTI Crude benchmarks.

ICE has also invested in OKX at a $25 billion valuation and secured a seat on the company’s board. ICE has also backed prediction market platform Polymarket, including a $600 million investment announced in March.

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Regulators face questions over market structure

Sprecher added that regulators will eventually need to decide how blockchain-based perpetual futures fit within existing financial rules.

According to Sprecher, policymakers could establish a dedicated framework for perpetual futures or classify them under existing swaps regulations such as the Dodd-Frank Act in the U.S. and EMIR rules in Europe.

Hyperliquid Policy Center, a U.S. advocacy group supporting the protocol, has argued that continuous trading improves market efficiency by removing interruptions between traditional trading sessions and allowing price discovery to occur around the clock.

Another area drawing attention involves private market trading on blockchain platforms. Sprecher pointed to the expected June 11 SpaceX IPO as a real-world test of whether prices discovered through onchain markets influence public listings.

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According to Sprecher, the expected June 11 public listing of SpaceX could provide insight into whether prices discovered in onchain markets influence traditional IPO valuations.

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$7.5B Bitcoin, Ethereum options expiry tests weak crypto bulls

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$7.5B Bitcoin, Ethereum options expiry tests weak crypto bulls

Bitcoin and Ethereum faced a large monthly options expiry on May 29 as prices stayed below key levels.

Summary

  • Bitcoin options worth $6.2 billion expired as BTC traded below the key $75,000 max pain level.
  • Ethereum options worth $1.28 billion expired while ETH struggled near $2,000 after recent market weakness.
  • Greeks.live said the expiry looked like bearish unwinding, with longs retreating from key resistance zones.

Greeks.live said 84,000 Bitcoin options expired, with a notional value of $6.2 billion. It also said 639,000 Ethereum options expired, with a notional value of $1.28 billion.

The expiry came after Bitcoin fell below $75,000 during the week. Ethereum also traded near the $2,000 zone after losing support.

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Bitcoin falls below max pain

Bitcoin’s put-call ratio stood at 0.88, according to Greeks.live. The max pain level was $75,000.

That level sat above the market price during the expiry window. This showed that bulls failed to pull Bitcoin back toward a key settlement level.

Crypto.news had reported that Bitcoin fell toward $73,000 before the expiry. The report also cited ETF outflows as one reason behind market pressure.

The same market setup kept traders focused on the $75,000 level. A move back above it could ease pressure, but Bitcoin failed to reclaim it before expiry.

Ethereum stays under pressure

Ethereum’s options data also showed a large expiry. Greeks.live said ETH had a put-call ratio of 0.81 and a max pain level of $2,200.

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Ethereum traded below that level before settlement. This left many bullish positions under pressure as the market moved lower.

The price action also kept attention on the $2,100 level. Greeks.live said traders now watch whether ETH can retake that zone.

Related crypto.news coverage showed Ethereum trading near $2,000 after recent weakness. The move placed ETH near a key psychological level.

Options data shows fragile sentiment

Greeks.live said the market did not show extreme bearish positioning. Bitcoin and Ethereum put-call ratios stayed below 1.

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That means puts did not heavily outnumber calls. Still, the latest price action showed that traders had reduced risk.

The firm described the expiry as a form of bearish unwinding. Large positions expired, while long traders failed to reclaim key price levels.

Greeks.live said, “short-term IV is likely to retreat after expiration.” This remains a market forecast and may change if prices move sharply.

June contracts take market focus

Greeks.live said only 20% of options expired this month. After settlement, June options rose to about 40% of open interest.

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That shift means the next round of positioning may now guide market direction. Traders will watch whether capital returns after the expiry.

Bitcoin must reclaim $75,000 to improve short-term sentiment. Ethereum also needs to move back above $2,100 to ease pressure.

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For now, the market remains cautious. The expiry removed large positions, but it did not restore strong buying demand.

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60% of European crypto users still using unlicensed exchanges ahead of MiCA

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60% of European crypto users still using unlicensed exchanges ahead of MiCA

A majority of European crypto users are still using unlicensed exchanges weeks before the EU’s MiCA transition period comes to an end, according to an analysis published by OKX Europe.

Summary

  • OKX Europe found that 60% of European crypto users still use exchanges without MiCA authorization ahead of the July 1 deadline.
  • About 7.6 million crypto exchange app downloads in Europe over the past year went to platforms that do not hold a MiCA license.

According to an analysis by OKX Europe shared with crypto.news, 7.6 million of the 18.5 million crypto exchange app downloads recorded across Europe between May 2025 and May 2026 went to platforms that do not hold a valid Markets in Crypto-Assets license. 

OKX Europe said those downloads accounted for 41% of all exchange app installs tracked during the period.

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The study, which cited Sensor Tower download data and licensing records from thecryptoregister.com, found that about 60% of European crypto users continue to use exchanges operating outside the MiCA framework. Thecryptoregister.com compiles licensing information from the European Securities and Markets Authority and national regulators.

July 1 deadline draws closer

With the MiCA transition period set to end on July 1, exchanges that have not secured authorization could face enforcement action if they continue operating in the European Union. Under the framework, crypto firms are required to obtain approval as Crypto-Asset Service Providers to legally offer services across the bloc.

“European crypto users may not know their exchange is operating without a MiCA licence and time before enforcement begins is running out.” – Erald Ghoos, CEO of OKX Europe.

“7.6 million app downloads in Europe last year going to unlicensed platforms is just the tip of the iceberg; many of these exchanges will have users who have been using their platforms and apps for years.”

He urged users to verify the licensing status of their exchange before the transition period expires.

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The ESMA MiCA register, which is publicly available through the regulator’s website, allows users to check whether a platform holds a MiCA authorization, operates under a temporary transitional arrangement, or remains unlicensed.

Regulators step up pressure on firms

Growing regulatory pressure has already emerged in some EU member states. In France, the Financial Markets Authority recently warned crypto firms to complete their MiCA licensing applications before June 30 or stop serving local customers.

AMF President Marie-Anne Barbat-Layani recently said it had become “very, very urgent” for firms to finalize their applications before the deadline. 

According to the French regulator, companies without approval should prepare orderly wind-down plans that allow customers to recover or transfer their crypto assets.

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French authorities have also warned that unauthorized providers could face blacklisting, public warnings, fines, and possible legal action if they continue targeting users after the transition period ends.

At the same time, some regulators, including France’s AMF, have raised concerns about differences in licensing standards among jurisdictions and the risks that could emerge if approvals are granted under weaker supervisory conditions.

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MiCA allows firms licensed in one EU country to offer services across all 27 member states through passporting rights.

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Ex-CFTC Chair: Gemini Settlement Reversal Unprecedented

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Crypto Breaking News

A high-stakes procedural reversal is reshaping the Gemini settlement narrative. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed an amended motion in the Southern District of New York seeking relief from a $5 million settlement the agency reached with Gemini Trust Company in January 2025, while President Joe Biden was in office. The move, which reverses course from a settled case, has drew immediate attention from former regulators and crypto industry observers who view it as highly unusual and potentially consequential for how the CFTC handles enforcement settlements going forward.

In its amended filing, the CFTC argues that the agency should be relieved from the judgment in Gemini’s favor, pointing to claims that a whistleblower—identified in the document as Gemini’s former chief operating officer—was found to be not credible, and that evidence had been concealed by the commission’s prior leadership. The filing also asserts that the whistleblower made false statements connected to Gemini’s Bitcoin futures pre-certification review and that the agency’s complaint contained deficiencies related to inflated trading activity, volumes, and misrepresented user demand.

Key takeaways

  • The CFTC is seeking to vacate or set aside the January 2025 $5 million settlement with Gemini, in a move described by observers as highly unusual.
  • The amended motion contends that a whistleblower’s credibility was compromised and that key evidence was concealed by earlier agency leadership, calling into question the original basis of the complaint.
  • Former CFTC chair Tim Massad characterized the reversal as extraordinary, suggesting the staff’s analysis was flawed rather than the law being unclear.
  • Gemini’s founders are connected to political events, having donated to Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign and engaged with the White House during a period of intensified regulatory scrutiny around crypto.
  • Public docket activity in Gemini’s case has paused since January 6, 2025, raising questions about the next steps and potential implications for enforcement norms.

The reversal that few expected

The heart of the update is not merely procedural nuance but a potential recalibration of how the CFTC handles settled enforcement actions. The amended motion—submitted to the SDNY and linked to the agency’s press materials—frames the move as a corrective measure, arguing that a settled outcome should not stand when the agency’s staff now concludes there were “significant deficiencies” in the Division of Enforcement’s evidence. In practical terms, the CFTC asserts that the complaint against Gemini should not have been filed in the first place, given new findings about credibility and evidentiary support.

“The CFTC’s action in reversing itself on a settled case is extraordinarily unusual. The explanation seems to be that the staff got it wrong, not that the law was unclear,” former CFTC chair Tim Massad told Cointelegraph in reference to the development.

The CFTC’s filing goes further by detailing that the whistleblower’s credibility and related disclosures formed the basis of the agitation around the case. The complaint had accused Gemini of reporting inflated trading activity and volumes and of misrepresenting user demand. The agency contends that after a comprehensive internal review, the division of enforcement identified significant gaps in the evidence presented when the case was initially brought.

Context: Gemini, settlement, and the political backdrop

The Gemini case has a longer arc than a single court filing. The action was initially filed in June 2022, with the parties settling in January 2025 for $5 million while the agency was under the Biden administration. The disclosure of an amended motion to vacate follows more than a year of relative quiet on the public docket, a rarity for what had been a high-profile, closely watched crypto case.

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The campaign and political maneuvering surrounding Gemini’s founders add another layer of context. Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s co-founders, each donated $1 million to Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign. The brothers have also met with Trump and attended White House events, including participation in a signing ceremony related to the GENIUS Act—an area touching on stablecoins and other crypto market mechanics. Pubic discussion around the Winklevosses’ political engagements has fed into broader conversations about regulatory capture, enforcement priorities, and the perception of independence within federal agencies during transitional periods.

In a separate development cited in reporting surrounding the case, a text chain made public by former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz in September 2025 suggested that Tyler Winklevoss pressed for aggressive litigation as Quintenz neared consideration for the agency’s leadership. That sequence reportedly followed Trump’s later withdrawal of Quintenz’s nomination, eventually leading to Michael Selig’s confirmation as chair and the agency’s current sole commissioner. Some language in the CFTC’s motion to vacate mirrored phrases from the Quintenz texts, including references to “abuse” of regulatory authority and a “false whistleblower.”

Gemini declined to comment immediately when contacted by Cointelegraph, leaving questions about the company’s position regarding the motion and any potential settlement strategy for the court to resolve.

Regulatory optics and what comes next

Crucially, the unfolding scenario raises questions about enforcement culture at the CFTC and how the agency balances settlement efficiency with the risk of overreach. The agency’s decision to seek relief from a settled judgment implies that it sees a need to correct past actions, but it also invites scrutiny about whether settled outcomes can be revisited as new information comes to light. For investors and market participants, the episode underscores the fragility of settlement buyouts in the crypto enforcement landscape and how political and personnel changes within federal agencies might influence long-running cases.

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Beyond Gemini, the broader regulatory environment remains in a state of flux. The crypto industry has watched closely as the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission recalibrate their approaches to token offerings, exchanges, and market infrastructure. With the administration’s evolving regulatory posture and the ongoing backlog of cases, observers are left watching how the courts balance finality against the need for corrective justice when substantial new evidence or credibility concerns emerge.

As the court process unfolds, several developments are likely to shape the trajectory of this case. The SDNY will have to weigh the CFTC’s arguments against Gemini’s defenses, consider the credibility questions surrounding the whistleblower and the allegedly concealed evidence, and determine whether the original 2025 settlement should stand or be vacated in light of the agency’s amended position. The timing of hearings, potential additional filings, and the possibility of a negotiated resolution will all factor into the coming months.

Meanwhile, the public and market participants will be watching for any cross-cutting implications. If the court allows the CFTC to reverse a settled case, it could have ripple effects on how firms approach settlements in high-profile enforcement actions and how regulators document and defend their decisions when new information surfaces. It also sharpens the ongoing debate about independence and accountability within regulatory agencies during politically sensitive periods.

In terms of flow of information, observers should expect more formal disclosures from both sides as the judge reviews the amended motion and any accompanying filings. The CFTC’s press materials and related public records will likely continue to be a focal point, along with any statements Gemini might issue in response.

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What to watch next is straightforward: the SDNY judge’s ruling on the CFTC’s motion to vacate, Gemini’s response, and any subsequent appeals or settlements that could emerge. If the court permits relief from judgment, it would mark an unusual turn in a settled crypto enforcement matter and could prompt a broader strategic reevaluation across the sector. If the motion is denied, the case may proceed along its current trajectories, with the existing settlement remaining in place and the question of remedy focused on enforcement transparency and evidentiary standards.

Readers should stay tuned for any updates on the court’s decision, potential further filings, and how this case might influence future CFTC enforcement actions in the crypto space.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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