The stock market often appears simple from a distance: buy low, sell high, and compound wealth. Yet in practice, it repeatedly humbles even experienced investors. As legendary financier Bernard Baruch observed, “The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.”

This statement is not cynicism, it is a warning about human behaviour, crowd psychology, and the emotional traps embedded in investing.

The Market Is Not Designed to Be Easy

Markets are driven by millions of participants reacting to news, fear, greed, liquidity, and macroeconomic shifts. Prices rarely reflect just “value”; they reflect expectations about the future, and expectations constantly change.

This creates a system where:

• Good news is often already priced in
• Bad news arrives when optimism is highest
• Volatility increases precisely when conviction is strongest

Baruch understood that the market does not reward intelligence alone, it rewards discipline, patience, and emotional control.
Why Most Investors Fail at TimingOne of Baruch’s strongest warnings was against market timing. He believed that trying to perfectly buy at the bottom and sell at the top is not just difficult, it is impossible.

In reality:

• Bottoms are clear only in hindsight
• Tops feel like the beginning of more gains
• Emotional bias leads investors to act late

This is why many investors buy in euphoria and sell in panic, exactly the opposite of what creates wealth.

The Danger of “Tips” and Noise

Baruch was deeply sceptical of stock tips and so-called “inside information”. He warned that most investors lose money not because they lack information, but because they misuse it.

Key insights:

• Information is abundant, but insight is rare
• Noise often disguises itself as opportunity
• Confidence increases when information is misunderstood

In modern markets, this problem has only intensified with social media, news overload, and instant opinions.

Investing Requires Real Work

Baruch emphasised that investing is not a passive activity. It requires effort, understanding, and attention.

He suggested investors should:

• Study companies thoroughly
• Understand earnings, management, and industry trends
• Continuously update their assumptions

Successful investing is not about guessing, it is about understanding businesses deeply enough to withstand uncertainty.

Losses Are Part of the Process

Another powerful Baruch lesson is about accepting mistakes quickly.

Many investors:

• Hold losing positions too long
• Hope for recovery instead of reassessing facts
• Let ego override logic

Baruch’s approach was simple: if the investment thesis breaks, exit without emotional attachment. Capital preservation is more important than being right.

Cash Is Not Idle, It Is Opportunity

Baruch also advised keeping part of your portfolio in cash. In a market driven by cycles, liquidity is not wasted capital, it is optionality.

Cash allows investors to:

• Act during corrections
• Avoid forced selling
• Wait for better opportunities

In his view, being fully invested at all times is not discipline, it is risk.

Focus Beats Over-Diversification

While diversification is important, Baruch warned against over-spreading investments. Too many holdings dilute attention and reduce understanding.

Instead, he believed in:

• Fewer, well-understood investments
• Continuous monitoring
• Deep knowledge over broad exposure

Quality of understanding matters more than the quantity of holdings.

The Real Edge in Markets

Baruch’s wisdom ultimately points to one truth:

The stock market does not beat you with complexity, it beats you with your own behaviour.

The real edge is not prediction, but discipline:

• Avoid emotional decisions
• Ignore noise and hype
• Accept uncertainty
• Think long term
• Act with patience, not impulse

In a world where everyone is trying to outsmart the market, Baruch’s message remains timeless: the market rewards those who stay rational when others cannot.

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are headed into a crucial week as investors track conflicting signals around potential US-Iran peace talks, with uncertainty over a possible deal likely to keep global markets volatile. The sharp correction in crude oil prices, which logged their steepest weekly fall in six weeks, is also expected to influence sentiment when trading resumes on Monday.

The Indian stock market witnessed a sharp selloff on Friday afternoon, with the Sensex and Nifty falling over 1% as passive fund flows linked to the MSCI index reshuffle weighed on sentiment. Sensex dropped over 1,092 points to 74,776 while Nifty 50 crashed nearly 359 points to 23,547. The sharp losses wiped off nearly Rs 6 lakh crore from the total market capitalisation of all companies listed on BSE, pulling it down to Rs 465 lakh crore.

Iran war tensions simmer

Fresh tensions continue to cloud efforts to sustain a fragile truce in West Asia. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Washington is prepared to resume strikes on Iran if nuclear talks fail, while reiterating President Donald Trump’s preference for a diplomatic agreement that prevents Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.Meanwhile, Iran is moving to formalise its control over the Strait of Hormuz, with lawmakers expected to vote on legislation governing the strategic waterway. Iranian military officials have warned that vessels must follow routes designated by Tehran and obtain permission from the IRGC Navy to transit the strait.

Will oil fall further?

Oil prices plunged to their lowest levels in seven weeks, easing concerns over energy-led inflation after reports suggested the United States, Israel and Iran were moving closer to a long-awaited peace agreement.
However, despite signals that an agreement may be near, Washington and Tehran continue to differ on key aspects of the proposed deal. The decline came as hopes of a breakthrough in the three-month U.S.-Iran conflict strengthened expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen fully. The strategic waterway handles around one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments, and any easing of disruptions could improve supply flows.FII worries

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) emerged as heavy sellers in Indian equities on Friday, pulling out a net Rs 20,637 crore in a single session, to record one of the sharpest single-day selloffs in recent years, as markets grappled with the impact of the latest MSCI index rebalancing.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have withdrawn a hefty $53 billion from Indian equities since late 2024, putting pressure on several large-cap stocks even as domestic institutional investors emerge as the market’s primary support, according to Jefferies. The sustained selling has taken a toll on market performance. MSCI India has fallen around 8% between September 2024 and May 2026, underperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets index by 67 percentage points in dollar terms.

Can the rupee strengthen?

Rupee rose 53 paise to close at 95.05 against the US dollar, as against the previous closing level of 95.69. The Indian currency recorded its best single-day gain since April 2.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the USD/INR pair is currently trading below the Rs 95 mark, retreating from the week’s high near Rs 95.9 and helping the rupee end the week with a net appreciation. The pair remains close to the lower boundary of its long-term ascending trendline, indicating a gradual easing in dollar strength amid improving global risk sentiment.

From a technical standpoint, the weekly chart has formed a shooting star pattern, signalling rejection at higher levels and suggesting bearish momentum could build in the near term. Immediate resistance is seen around Rs 95.2, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way for a recovery towards the Rs 95.4–Rs 95.6 range.

Weak set up

From a technical standpoint, Nifty continues to trade below all its key moving averages. More importantly, these moving averages have flattened out, indicating the absence of a strong trend. The daily RSI remains in a sideways zone as per the RSI Range Shift framework, while the daily Stochastic oscillator is also moving within a narrow band, says Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

Adding to this, the trend strength indicator, Daily ADX, is placed at near 15 level and continues to decline, suggesting a lack of directional momentum in the index. While these indicators point towards a lack of trend, Friday’s late sell-off has injected fresh uncertainty into the market setup.

Markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical and macroeconomic developments in the coming week, with investor attention firmly focused on the evolving U.S.–Iran negotiations, broader diplomatic developments in the Middle East and the trajectory of crude oil prices.

While expectations of a potential agreement have helped improve risk sentiment and drive a sharp correction in energy prices, investors remain cautious as a definitive breakthrough has yet to materialise.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

On May 20, 2026, the rupee printed an all-time low of Rs 96.97 to the dollar. For Indian investors, there is a direct implication for how a portfolio should be built.

Where We Are

The rupee has depreciated against the dollar at a compound annual rate of approximately 5% since the 1991 liberalisation. The journey reads like a one-way ladder: Rs 3.30 at independence in 1947, Rs 17 before liberalisation, Rs 46 by 2000, Rs 75 in 2020, Rs 97 today. While the RBI has managed the pace of depreciation effectively, there has not been a sustained reversal along that path.

The current stress has a specific character worth noting. The rupee has weakened 12% over the last 12 months. The DXY dollar index, by contrast, fell 9.4% through all of 2025. That is rupee-specific stress, and it points directly to the forces underneath.

Three Catalysts, None Short-Lived

The first is oil. India imports 88% of its crude requirement, and Brent crude ranged between $97 and $110 per barrel in May 2026, spiking above $110 precisely when the rupee hit its record low. Every dollar increase in the oil price widens the import bill, adds to current account pressure, and increases structural demand for dollars. The RBI cannot drill its way out of this.
The second is capital flows. Foreign portfolio investors have pulled Rs 2.2 lakh crore from Indian equities in 2026 alone, the worst outflow year since FPI investing in Indian equities was first permitted in 1992. When foreign capital exits, it exits in dollars. Dollar supply in the market falls, demand rises, and the rupee weakens. The mechanism is direct and the numbers are not small.The third is the inflation differential. India’s CPI has run structurally above US CPI over any five-year or longer horizon, and purchasing power parity adjustments work quietly but persistently in the background. The approximately 5% annual depreciation since 1991 is not coincidental to this differential. It is mechanical.

None of these catalysts resolve quickly. Oil dependence is a decade-long infrastructure challenge. FPI flows depend on global risk appetite and relative valuations that will remain volatile. The inflation differential compresses only when India’s supply-side productivity gains structurally outpace the US over a sustained period. The RBI Governor has stated the bank will do “whatever is required” for orderly markets and that the rupee appears undervalued.

But rate hikes to defend the currency are not on the agenda. The tools available to the central bank are narrower than the structural forces pressing against it.

What This Means for Portfolio Construction

A dollar-denominated asset earns on two levels for an Indian investor: the USD return of the underlying, and rupee depreciation layered on top. At the 10-year average depreciation rate of 3.4%, a flat-returning US asset still delivers a 1.4x return in INR over a decade, purely from currency. At the long-run 5% rate, currency alone roughly doubles the INR value of any dollar asset over 20 years. The dollar has strengthened against the rupee on a net basis for 34 years. The currency tailwind is built into the asset class.

Sure, the Nifty 50 TRI delivered 14.6% CAGR in INR terms for the decade ending 2023, a strong number on any measure. The S&P 500 in INR delivered approximately 15-16% annualised over the same 10-year window, per reconstructed data combining S&P 500 USD returns with RBI exchange rate data. Comparable headline returns, but with uncorrelated drivers. When oil spikes and FPI outflows hit simultaneously, a domestic-only portfolio absorbs the equity market impact and the currency erosion at the same time. A portfolio with dollar exposure absorbs the equity impact but earns on the currency move. Those are meaningfully different risk profiles wearing similar return numbers.

A 20 to 30% allocation to US equities through the LRS route, built over time via low-cost index ETFs and direct stocks accessible through platforms like Appreciate, is a structural response to a structural reality: the rupee has weakened at approximately 5% annually for 34 years, three catalysts sustain that pressure today, and a portfolio concentrated entirely in one currency carries a risk the data has been pricing in for decades.

(The author, Subho Moulik is Founder & CEO at Appreciate)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

The combined market valuation of seven of the top 10 valued firms eroded by Rs 1.54 lakh crore last week, with Reliance Industries taking the biggest hit.

In a holiday-shortened last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex dropped 639.61 points, or 0.84 per cent, and the NSE Nifty declined 171.55 points, or 0.72 per cent.

From the top 10 pack, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Bajaj Finance and Hindustan Unilever faced erosion in their valuations, while State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) were the gainers.

The market valuation of Reliance Industries dropped by Rs 46,078.3 crore to Rs 17,87,039.40 crore.

HDFC Bank’s valuation eroded by Rs 33,333.06 crore to Rs 11,46,641.84 crore.

The valuation of Bharti Airtel tumbled Rs 25,408.96 crore to Rs 11,14,886.53 crore and that of TCS dived Rs 22,920.58 crore to Rs 8,15,480.75 crore.
The market capitalisation (mcap) of Hindustan Unilever diminished by Rs 13,169.46 crore to Rs 5,04,210.54 crore.Bajaj Finance’s valuation declined by Rs 7,253.24 crore to Rs 5,63,262.33 crore and that of ICICI Bank dipped by Rs 6,311.41 crore to Rs 9,00,589.91 crore.

However, the mcap of Larsen & Toubro jumped Rs 20,608.43 crore to Rs 5,60,836.64 crore.

State Bank of India’s mcap climbed Rs 13,753.62 crore to Rs 8,89,831.54 crore and that of LIC went up by Rs 6,040.37 crore to Rs 5,20,484.06 crore.

Reliance Industries remained the most valued domestic firm followed by HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, TCS, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, LIC and Hindustan Unilever.

Patanjali Foods reported a 46% year-on-year rise in net profit for the March quarter, aided by strong growth across its edible oils and FMCG businesses. However, higher raw material and packaging costs weighed on profitability. The company’s profit after tax rose to Rs 524 crore in the quarter ended March 2026 from about Rs 359 crore a year earlier.

Revenue from operations increased 17% year-on-year (YoY) and 6% sequentially to Rs 11,217 crore during the quarter. Despite the strong top-line performance, margins remained under pressure due to rising input costs.

Gross profit stood at Rs 1,398 crore, translating into a margin of 12.47%. The company said profitability was impacted by a sharp rise in packaging material costs during the latter half of March, particularly for PET bottles and polyester films, driven by crude oil volatility and higher freight expenses.Cost of goods sold increased by 294 basis points as a percentage of revenue on a YoY basis. EBITDA, excluding exceptional items, came in at Rs 502 crore with an EBITDA margin of 4.48%.

The edible oils business remained the largest contributor to revenue. The segment reported revenue of Rs 8,324 crore during the quarter, up 23% YoY and 13.5% sequentially. Segment EBITDA stood at Rs 215 crore, with margins of 2.58%.
Branded edible oils accounted for nearly 75% of total edible oil sales and continued to drive growth.
The company said palm oil prices strengthened sharply during the quarter, with refined palm oil prices rising nearly 20% between January and March 2026. The increase was driven by higher import costs from Malaysia and Indonesia, elevated freight charges, rising insurance costs and expectations of tighter global supplies.
Soya oil prices also moved higher, rising 23% during the quarter.

The FMCG segment continued its strong performance and generated revenue of Rs 2,890 crore, up 14% YoY. Segment EBITDA rose 14% to Rs 292 crore, while margins stood at 10.1%.

The FMCG business contributed nearly 26% of quarterly revenue and almost 58% of segment EBITDA during the quarter, underscoring its growing importance in the company’s earnings mix.

Within FMCG, biscuits remained a key growth driver. Quarterly biscuit revenue rose nearly 14% to Rs 478 crore. For FY26, biscuit revenue crossed Rs 1,907 crore, growing 16%.

The company said its Doodh biscuit brand has now become a Rs 1,300-crore-plus annual sales brand, while Nariyal biscuits continued gaining market share.

The Staples portfolio generated quarterly revenue of Rs 849 crore, while the home and personal care business posted strong growth of 35% to Rs 840 crore. The skincare category emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments, with revenue rising 58% YoY.

The ghee business reported quarterly revenue of Rs 339 crore, while textured soya products contributed Rs 106 crore.

Beverages and juices also witnessed improved demand toward the end of the quarter as summer consumption recovered after an initially delayed season.

The company’s nutraceutical business generated revenue of Rs 18 crore following internal restructuring initiatives. Exports contributed Rs 32 crore during the quarter, while annual export revenue stood at Rs 187.8 crore. Patanjali Foods exported products to 37 countries during FY26.

For the full year, Patanjali Foods reported its highest-ever annual revenue from operations at Rs 40,170 crore, representing growth of 19% over FY25.

The edible oils business generated annual revenue of Rs 29,313 crore, while the FMCG segment reported annual revenue of Rs 11,188 crore, up nearly 20%. The company also continued expanding its oil palm plantation business under the government’s edible oil self-sufficiency push.

As of March 2026, the total oil palm cultivated area under the company’s network stood at 1.11 lakh hectares across 12 states, reflecting growth of 24% YoY.

Patanjali Foods spent around 2% of quarterly revenue on advertising and brand-building activities during the quarter.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times.)

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