Key Takeaways

• SpaceX (SPCX) shares climbed 5.6% in premarket trading Monday, hitting $169.92 following Friday’s impressive 19% Nasdaq launch
• The company’s $75 billion offering represents the largest IPO ever recorded, establishing a market valuation near $2.1 trillion
• Shares are trading at 61 times projected 2026 revenue despite ongoing losses
• CEO Elon Musk indicated on X that annual revenue could surpass $1 trillion within six years
• S&P 500 inclusion remains off the table for a minimum of one year under index eligibility requirements

Space Exploration Technologies made its trading debut Friday on the Nasdaq exchange using the SPCX ticker symbol, finishing the session 19% higher near $161 after launching at $150 per share. During opening-day trading, the stock reached a peak of $176.52.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Coming into Monday’s session, shares tacked on an additional 5.6% in premarket activity, touching $169.92. The advance coincided with broader market strength, as S&P 500 futures climbed 1.3% following news of an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

The offering generated $75 billion in proceeds, establishing a new benchmark for IPO size. SpaceX finished its inaugural trading day with a market capitalization around $2.1 trillion.

First-day volume exceeded 500 million shares, nearing the approximately 580 million shares that changed hands when Facebook went public in 2012.

If SPCX had qualified for S&P 500 membership, its Monday premarket performance would have placed it fourth among index constituents. Only Micron Technology, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital posted stronger gains.

Building Momentum Early

The three top performers — Micron, Seagate, and Western Digital — have all developed momentum characteristics in recent months, attracting buyers during rallies who anticipate continued appreciation. SpaceX shows early signs of similar investor behavior just two days into public trading.

During a JPMorgan Chase livestream before the listing, Musk revealed that SpaceX has maintained positive cash flow since approximately 2015 and characterized the public offering as launching “a significant growth phase.” He detailed ambitious plans including deploying over 100,000 satellites and establishing artificial intelligence data centers in orbit.

The lofty valuation has drawn skepticism from certain market participants. Current pricing represents 61 times anticipated 2026 sales for a company that remains unprofitable.

Musk took to X on Sunday to suggest SpaceX revenue could exceed $1 trillion by 2030, commenting on a Morgan Stanley projection shared on the platform.

The Expanding Space Industry

Jefferies analysts released research alongside the IPO estimating the worldwide space economy has grown to $600 billion and projects expansion to $1.8 trillion by 2035, with defense applications representing the fastest-growing sector.

The United States government represents approximately 60% of worldwide government space expenditures, totaling roughly $80 billion. The Space Force budget surged 40% year-over-year in fiscal 2026, reaching $40 billion — significantly exceeding NASA’s $24 billion allocation.

SpaceX ranks as NASA’s second-largest commercial partner by contract value, securing $2.1 billion in 2025 agreements spanning launch operations, communications systems, and IT infrastructure.

Jefferies observed that “the U.S. government has effectively outsourced significant space activity to SpaceX, creating an inextricable linkage between federal spending priorities and the company’s business.”

SpaceX remains ineligible for S&P 500 inclusion for at least 12 months following its IPO, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices eligibility criteria.

Crypto traders will hope the week offers a reprieve to months of geopolitical anxiety that has stifled risk assets following Sunday’s announcement of an interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.

Bitcoin climbed to nearly $66,000 on Monday, almost 3.5% above Friday’s level, while cryptocurrency-linked equities including Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy (GLXY) advanced in pre-market trading.

There’s still a note of caution, though. A ceasefire in April fell apart, and U.S. strikes broke another truce last month, with crypto prices taking a hit.

Wednesday sees Kevin Warsh’s first interest-rate decision as Federal Reserve chair. The forecast is for no change in the current level.

The introduction of a fresh dot plot — which charts individual Fed policymakers’ interest-rate projections — combined with a shortened trading week due to Friday’s Juneteenth federal holiday, suggests liquidity will likely decline.

The week’s data calendar and the Fed’s guidance will ultimately determine whether crypto can capitalize on the apparent geopolitical tailwind and build a definitive recovery.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • June 15: The CFTC opens its 45-day formal public comment window following its Notice of Proposed Rulemaking targeting prediction markets.
  • June 16: Industry groups begin formatting formal responses to the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee following its major legislative hearing on digital asset tax proposals.
• Macro
  • June 15, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index for June est. 12.0 (Prev. 19.6)
  • June 17, 2 p.m.: U.S. Fed Interest-Rate Decision (FOMC) est. 3.50%–3.75% (Prev. 3.50%–3.75%)
  • June 18, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for period ending June 13 est. 222K (Prev. 229K)
  • June 19: U.S. equity markets are closed in observance of the Juneteenth federal holiday
  • June 19: U.S., Iran to sign ceasefire agreement.
• Earnings

Token Events

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Cratos is voting on extending the period in which users receive rewards for actions until July 31, having previously approved CIP-41, which extended the daily token reward limit under the current reward standard until June 30. Voting ends on June 18.
  • Rocket Pool is voting on rebalancing RPL inflation allocation to increase pDAO protocol funding during and after the Saturn 2 transition. Voting ends on June 19.
  • Orderly is voting on delisting eight tokens: BIRB, PAXG, SKY, SNX, AR, FIL, STBL, MYX. Voting ends on June 22.
• Unlocks
  • June 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.68% of its circulating supply worth $7.76 million.
  • June 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating supply worth $8.39 million.
• Token launches
  • June 15: C8ntinuum (CTM) to list on Bitmart.
  • June 17: Botchain (METAKPK) to list on Bitmart.

Conferences

After four months of war, the US and Iran reached a deal on June 14. Bitcoin rose 2%, not 20%. The gap between the headline and the price move is a lesson the market learned the hard way, three broken ceasefires ago.

On June 14, 2026, Donald Trump posted to Truth Social that the deal with Iran was complete, authorized the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifted the US naval blockade, and signed off with a flourish: “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” It was the end, on paper, of a four-month war that began in late February with coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, escalated through a closed strait and a naval blockade, and survived three or four collapsed ceasefires along the way. Markets had spent the entire conflict whipsawing on every headline. Here, finally, was the headline that ended it.

Bitcoin rose about 2%, to roughly $65,700, its highest level since the early-June crash. Oil fell harder than Bitcoin rose, with WTI dropping toward $81 and Brent sliding to multi-month lows from the triple digits it touched at the height of the war. Equity futures climbed. By the standard of what the headline announced, the end of a war that had threatened a fifth of the world’s oil supply, a 2% Bitcoin move is restraint bordering on indifference.

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the most critical events driving global markets.

👉 Key topics covered in this episode:

✔️ BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Japan is preparing for a potential interest rate increase as inflation risks become a greater concern for policymakers. Higher rates are expected to support the yen, which remains under pressure, while further policy tightening may continue through the end of the year. How could additional interest rate hikes affect the value of the Japanese yen and the country’s economy?

✔️UK Inflation Rate
Investors are closely watching upcoming UK inflation data, as it could influence expectations for future monetary policy and trigger volatility in the British pound. While no immediate interest rate change is expected, inflation trends remain a key factor in assessing the country’s economic outlook. Could the upcoming UK inflation report have a significant impact on the British pound and future monetary policy decisions?

✔️Fed Interest Rate Decision
Market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, as investors seek clues about future interest rate decisions. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, comments from policymakers could influence expectations for further tightening and drive volatility in financial markets. Why are investors closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s statements even though no interest rate change is expected?

To summarise, market sentiment in the coming days will be driven by key economic data and geopolitical developments. Investors remain focused on Iran, global oil supply routes, and energy markets, while uncertainty persists despite signals that the conflict could be nearing a resolution. Traders continue to monitor new information closely and stay flexible in their market approach.

💬 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more professional market insights every week.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Bitcoin traded just below the $66,000 level on Monday as markets digested fresh claims from US President Donald Trump that the United States has brokered a peace deal with Iran—one that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and remove the US naval blockade.

The remarks added to a broader “risk-on” tone that had already been building as traders positioned around expectations of reduced geopolitical tension following the escalation that began in February. Still, the path from announcement to implementation remains dependent on signing and final details that were not immediately available.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin hit $65,881 on Coinbase during Monday morning trading, its highest level over the prior 12 days, driven by expectations of lower geopolitical risk.
• Trump said the deal is complete and authorized both “toll-free opening” of the Strait of Hormuz and removal of the US naval blockade, prompting positive market reaction.
• Observers caution that the market may be pricing headline risk before the deal is formally signed and implemented by both sides.
• Oil prices moved lower alongside the crypto rally—WTI fell about 5% and Brent dropped about 4.6% on the day.
• Additional volatility is possible this week with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest-rate decision and the market’s sensitivity to new inflation data.

Headline-driven rally as Hormuz reopening enters the narrative

According to Trump’s posts on Truth Social late Sunday, the “deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” alongside authorization for the “toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz” and the “immediate removal” of the US naval blockade. In follow-up messaging, Trump urged that ships prepare to “start your engines” and for “oil” to resume flows.

Bitcoin responded quickly. TradingView data cited in earlier coverage shows BTC reaching $65,881 on Coinbase Monday morning, placing it just shy of $66,000. The move marked the highest trade level in roughly the last 12 days, with BTC having not gone above $66,000 since June 3.

Market reaction did not occur in isolation. Crypto had already been trading around the geopolitical backdrop tied to the Iran-related conflict, which began escalating earlier in the year with US-Israeli strikes. As those risks shifted in traders’ minds, Bitcoin’s sensitivity to “risk premium” appeared to reassert itself.

Why traders link geopolitics to Bitcoin’s risk premium

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph that a potential agreement could “remove a major geopolitical risk premium,” producing a “clear risk-on move as uncertainty fades.”

He also noted that BTC’s rise above $65,000 came alongside rotation back into crypto, citing both reduced oil pressure and a “broader stability narrative” tied to a pro-crypto political backdrop. Even so, Adziima warned that “last-minute signing issues” could still interfere with the market’s expectations if the agreement fails to clear final steps.

This distinction matters for investors because headline-driven rallies often unwind when details lag. The current uptick appears to be tied more to perceived probability and timing than to a fully verified implementation plan—meaning traders should watch whether confirmations progress beyond statements.

Deal details remain pending despite confirmations

While Trump claimed the agreement is complete, the article said the specific details of the US–Iran deal were not immediately available. Implementation was also described as contingent on Iran signing, which was expected on Friday, with Pakistan named as a mediator in reporting from the Associated Press.

Iranian officials signaled progress on the state side as well. The report referenced confirmation by Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, on state television, and said Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretariat stated that the war “on all fronts” would end immediately and permanently beginning that night and that the US blockade would be terminated “immediately and in full.”

Even with those assertions, the market still faces an important uncertainty: whether the deal’s operational elements—such as maritime access and enforcement—follow through on the timetable implied by Trump’s posts. That is the gap between “deal news” and “deal reality” that can separate a sustained repricing from a short-lived spike.

Oil lower, altcoins participate, and Fed risk looms

The crypto strength extended beyond Bitcoin. The broader crypto market was reported to have gained about 2% in total capitalization, with multiple altcoins outperforming, including Hyperliquid (HYPE), Zcash (ZEC) and Near Protocol (NEAR), some with double-digit daily gains.

At the same time, crude oil moved lower. WTI crude dropped roughly 5% to just over $80 per barrel, its lowest level since early March, while Brent fell about 4.6% to $83.30. The combination of easing energy pressure and a geopolitical de-escalation narrative can be important because both factors influence risk appetite and the inflation outlook investors associate with commodity-driven volatility.

For traders looking ahead, the environment is not only geopolitical. The article pointed to a potential catalyst on Wednesday: the Federal Reserve is scheduled to make its interest-rate decision, the first under new chair Kevin Warsh. While coverage noted the central bank chair appears more receptive to cuts, inflation pressures—including reports that inflation has topped 4% again—could support arguments for keeping rates higher.

Coincidentally, CME Fed Watch was cited as forecasting a 96.6% probability that rates will remain unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. That kind of near-consensus pricing can reduce immediate downside expectations around the decision, but it can also amplify market reaction if the Fed’s tone or accompanying indicators shift from what traders have modeled.

For the next trading sessions, the key watchpoints are whether Iran signing and the operational reopening of the Strait of Hormuz progress on schedule, and whether macro events—particularly the Federal Reserve decision amid persistent inflation concerns—change the risk appetite that has recently lifted crypto.

Key Highlights

• Belimo shares rallied approximately 8% to CHF 941 following Morgan Stanley’s rating upgrade from “equal-weight” to “overweight”
• Analyst price target increased to CHF 1,100 from CHF 860, fueled by expanding data center cooling requirements
• Data center operations represented 17% of Belimo’s 2025 revenue and contributed roughly 50% to overall company growth
• Analysts forecast data center segment could comprise 38% of total company revenues by decade’s end
• Hyperscaler capital expenditure projections increased 7% for 2026 and 18% for 2027

Shares of Belimo Holding surged approximately 8% during Monday’s trading session, reaching CHF 941, following an analyst upgrade from Morgan Stanley that elevated the Swiss valve manufacturer’s price target from CHF 860 to CHF 1,100.

BELIMO Holding AG, BLHWF

The rating revision moved from “equal-weight” to “overweight,” with analysts identifying the artificial intelligence-driven data center expansion as the primary catalyst for the bullish outlook.

Data center operations comprised 17% of Belimo’s CHF 1.12 billion total sales in 2025, representing growth from 11% during the previous year. This division generated approximately half of the company’s overall growth during the period, with Morgan Stanley calculating that data center revenue expanded more than 70% on a year-over-year basis in 2025.

Analysts now anticipate that data center operations will drive more than half of company-wide growth for a minimum of three years, ultimately representing 38% of aggregate revenues by 2030.

The Critical Role of Liquid Cooling Technology

The transition from traditional air-based cooling to liquid cooling systems in artificial intelligence data centers forms the foundation of Morgan Stanley’s investment case. This technological evolution drives demand toward Belimo’s premium product portfolio.

Belimo’s Energy Valve commands approximately $1,200 per unit, substantially exceeding the company’s average selling price range of $130 to $150. Control valve sales expanded 31.3% in local currency terms during fiscal 2025, significantly outpacing damper actuators which grew 14.4%.

During the company’s 2025 earnings discussion, management emphasized that within the advanced cooling sector — particularly for processors requiring direct liquid cooling solutions — Belimo maintains “an almost dominant market share.”

Morgan Stanley additionally increased its United States hyperscaler cloud infrastructure spending projections by 7% for 2026 and 18% for 2027 following first-quarter earnings releases. Analysts now forecast 82% year-over-year capital expenditure growth in 2026 to $815 billion, followed by 38% expansion in 2027 to $1.13 trillion.

Financial Performance Projections

Morgan Stanley anticipates Belimo’s revenue will climb to CHF 1.31 billion during fiscal 2026, CHF 1.53 billion in 2027, and CHF 1.78 billion by 2028.

Earnings per share projections stand at CHF 18.33, CHF 22.42, and CHF 26.20 for these respective fiscal years. The firm’s forecasts exceed consensus expectations by 2% for 2026, expanding to 9% above consensus by 2028 and 20% by 2030.

The stock presently trades at 47.7 times Morgan Stanley’s fiscal 2026 earnings projection. Analysts contend that on a growth-adjusted valuation basis, Belimo appears more attractively priced than ABB, Siemens, Halma, and IMI.

Morgan Stanley established a bull case scenario of CHF 1,510 and a bear case projection of CHF 600.

The primary risk identified involves potential architectural changes in data center design that could integrate more liquid-cooling components within coolant distribution units, diminishing Belimo’s independent specification authority.

Monday’s rally positions the stock near its 52-week peak of CHF 975. Belimo’s recent early-2026 trading announcement, which revealed higher sales compared to the corresponding prior-year period, provided additional support for the upgrade.