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BTC holding in tight range as markets brace for January employment data

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Bitcoin's volatility spikes to its highest since FTX's collapse as prices crater to nearly $60,000

Following the usual recent pattern, crypto markets fell sharply as U.S. stocks opened for trade Tuesday, but recovered most of those losses in a similarly quick fashion.

In mid-morning trade, bitcoin was at $69,200, down marginally from 24 hours ago. Ether underperformed, down 1.8%, with similar declines in XRP and Solana .

While bitcoin’s current drawdown is the most significant since the 2024 halving, trading volume stayed low during the decline, suggesting retail investors stepped back rather than rushed to sell, according to Kaiko.

The “market [is now] approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle framework remains intact,” Kaiko research analyst Laurens Fraussen wrote in a report Tuesday.

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Trading firm Wintermute expects bitcoin to remain in the current range as it’s still in price discovery.

Recent bitcoin moves have been driven by leveraged derivatives rather than spot demand, the firm said, with light spot volumes leaving prices sensitive to crowded positions. Wintermute pointed to last Friday’s rebound as a short squeeze in perpetual futures and said the return of volatility caught investors off guard after a period of complacency.

January jobs report on tap

Originally scheduled for last Friday, the government’s January Nonfarm Payrolls Report is now coming out on Wednesday morning due to the brief federal shutdown last month.

Economist forecasts are for 70,000 jobs to have been added, up from 50,000 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.

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White House trade counselor Peter Navarro, however, said in a Fox interview Tuesday that expectations need to be significantly revised lower. His comments follow those of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who advised markets not to panic on weak jobs data.

Those remarks appear to have been noted by the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 5 basis points to 4.14%. Lower interest rates and easier Federal Reserve monetary policy are typically assumed to be good for assets like bitcoin, but it hasn’t been the case this cycle, with bitcoin plunging even as the Fed has trimmed rates by 75 basis points in recent months.

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Crypto World

Solana (SOL) DeFi platform Drift investigates suspicious activity, tells users to halt deposits

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Solana (SOL) DeFi platform Drift investigates suspicious activity, tells users to halt deposits

Solana-based decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Drift said it is investigating “unusual activity” on its protocol, prompting concerns that the platform may have been exploited.

“We are observing unusual activity on the protocol. We are currently investigating. Please do not deposit funds into the protocol while we investigate,” Drift wrote in a post on X. “This is not an April Fools joke. Proceed with caution until further notice. We’ll provide additional updates from this account.”

The warning triggered speculation across the crypto community, with some users reporting irregular behavior tied to their positions.

Helius CEO Mert Mumtaz added to the concern in a separate X post, writing, “not 100% fully certain yet, but it seems drift might be getting exploited.” Helius is a key infrastructure provider on Solana, offering APIs and node services that developers and platforms rely on to access blockchain data.

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If confirmed, an exploit could affect user funds and add pressure on Solana’s DeFi ecosystem, which has seen renewed growth in recent months.

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Bitcoin Treasury Sell-Off Could Signal Deeper Capitulation Coming: Analyst

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The value of the Bitcoin treasury company’s holdings peaked at over $711 million in October 2025, when BTC hit an all-time high of about $126,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) treasury company Nakamoto (NAKA) selling its BTC at a loss could signal capitulation of more crypto treasury companies and the start of a “contagion” that could spark a wave of forced selling, according to market analyst Nic Puckrin.

“Cracks are beginning to show in the digital asset treasury (DAT) market,” Puckrin said, adding that the war in the Middle East will likely place further pressure on Bitcoin’s price and treasury companies in a reinforcing cycle. He said:

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“Price is likely to remain below $70,000 for some time and could fall further to a range around $55,700-$58,200 in the coming weeks. This ongoing weakness would put further pressure on DATs, which could in turn exacerbate the sell-off.”

Nakamoto sold 284 BTC in March for $20 million, implying a price of about $70,000 per coin; the company also reduced its stake in the publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet, selling shares at a loss. 

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Nakamoto’s BTC holdings over time. Source: BitcoinTreasuries

At the end of 2025, the company valued its 5,342 BTC treasury at $467.5 million and recorded a $166.1 million loss on the fair value of its digital asset holdings in the fourth quarter, according to the company’s 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

The crypto treasury sector saw a collapse in net asset value premiums during Q3 2025, and stock prices declined even before the crypto market crash in October 2025, which sparked a prolonged bear market and a decline in digital asset prices.

Related: Bitcoin miners offload 15K BTC since October, with more sales expected

MARA also sells BTC in March as market rout continues

Bitcoin mining company MARA also sold 15,133 Bitcoin in March, valued at over $1 billion, to repurchase and retire about $1 billion in convertible debt.

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MARA discloses March BTC sale in SEC filing. Source: MARA

MARA’s vice president for investor relations, Robert Samuels, said the sale does not signal a core shift in the company’s BTC treasury strategy, but is a short-term tactical move. 

“We may buy or sell from time to time, subject to market conditions and our capital allocation priorities. It does not mean we intend to liquidate the majority of our reserves,” Samuels said.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation: Santiment founder