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JPMorgan Weighs Prediction Markets as Sector Expands

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Jamie Dimon said JPMorgan may enter the prediction markets sector in the future.
  • He ruled out offering contracts tied to sports or political events.
  • Goldman Sachs confirmed it is actively reviewing prediction market opportunities.
  • Polymarket and Kalshi remain leading platforms as competition expands.
  • Coinbase and Robinhood have added prediction trading to their services.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank may enter prediction markets as large institutions assess the fast-growing sector. He shared the update during a CBS interview on Tuesday. His remarks place JPMorgan alongside Goldman Sachs in reviewing potential offerings.

JPMorgan Reviews Prediction Markets Strategy

Dimon confirmed JPMorgan is studying the space but set clear limits. “It’s possible one day we’ll do something like that,” Dimon said. However, he ruled out markets tied to sports or politics.

He stressed that the bank would follow strict internal standards. “There’s a bunch of stuff we won’t do,” Dimon said. He added, “We have strict rules around insider information.”

Goldman Sachs has also advanced its review of prediction markets. CEO David Solomon addressed the topic during the bank’s January earnings call. He said the firm has engaged directly with industry leaders.

“I personally met with the two big prediction companies,” Solomon said. He said he spent hours learning about their models and leadership. He added that a team continues to evaluate the sector.

Neither bank has disclosed launch timelines. They have also not detailed technology choices or regulatory structures. However, their statements confirm active internal discussions.

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Polymarket, Kalshi, and Rising Crypto Platforms

Prediction markets were once centered on two main platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi dominated the sector for years. Now, competition has expanded quickly across crypto and traditional firms.

Coinbase and Robinhood have integrated prediction market trading. These companies offer retail access through existing platforms. Their entry has increased user participation and market volume.

Polymarket operates on blockchain infrastructure using Polygon. Users deposit stablecoins and place outcome-based trades. Smart contracts record transactions and settle payouts automatically.

Kalshi uses a regulated exchange model without blockchain systems. It offers event contracts under centralized order matching. The platform handles settlement through traditional mechanisms.

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Polymarket has secured partnerships and investment backing. It maintains ties with Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange. The company holds an estimated $20 billion valuation.

Kalshi recently closed a funding round led by Coatue Management. The round valued the platform at about $22 billion. These figures reflect growing capital flows into prediction markets.

Regulation in the United States continues to evolve. Authorities assess how event contracts should be classified. Banks have indicated they will monitor policy developments closely.

Earlier this month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission advanced oversight efforts. The agency outlined steps to build a regulatory framework. These actions mark the latest formal move shaping prediction markets in the U.S.

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Crypto World

US Law Firm Apologizes For AI Hallucinations in Filing

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US Law Firm Apologizes For AI Hallucinations in Filing

Sullivan & Cromwell’s Andrew Dietderich said the company has AI policies to prevent incorrect citations and other errors, but procedures weren’t followed on this occasion.

Wall Street law firm Sullivan & Cromwell has apologized to a federal judge after submitting a court filing that contained around 40 incorrect citations and other errors caused by AI hallucinations.

“We deeply regret that this has occurred,” Andrew Dietderich, co-head of Sullivan & Cromwell’s global restructuring team, wrote Friday in a letter to Chief Judge Martin Glenn of the US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.

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“The Firm and I are keenly aware of our responsibility to ensure the accuracy of all submissions including under Local Bankruptcy Rule 9011-1(d), and I take responsibility for the failure to do so,” he said of an emergency motion filed nine days earlier.

Excerpt from Andrew Dietderich’s letter to Chief Judge Martin Glenn. Source: Sullivan & Cromwell

The incident highlights the risk AI tools can pose in high-stakes professional work without proper oversight. A database managed by legal technologist Damien Charlotin has recorded 1,334 incidents of AI hallucinations in court filings around the world, including more than 900 in the US.

Charlotin pointed out that most of these hallucinations involve fabricated citations, though AI-generated legal arguments have also occasionally been identified.

Dietderich said Sullivan & Cromwell has policies in place for the use of AI tools, which include a review of the citations it uses, but said the policies weren’t followed.

“Regrettably, this review process did not identify the inaccurate citations generated by AI, nor did it identify other errors that appear to have resulted in whole or in part from manual error.”

Sullivan & Cromwell is one of the largest law firms in the US by revenue, ranking 30th on the AmLaw Global 200. The firm also represented crypto exchange FTX in its bankruptcy case.

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Sullivan & Cromwell is conducting an internal investigation

Dietderich said the law firm took “immediate remedial measures,” including a full review of the circumstances that led to the errors. 

Related: Coinbase’s AI payments protocol x402 launches app store for AI agents

The firm is also “evaluating whether further enhancements to its internal training and review processes are warranted,” Dietderich said.

Dietderich also noted that the errors were spotted by a rival law firm.

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“I also called Boies Schiller Flexner LLP on Friday to thank them for bringing this matter to our attention and to apologize directly to them as well,” he said. 

Magazine: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket — AI Eye