U.S. President Donald Trump says a deal to end hostilities between the United States and Iran is scheduled to be signed on Sunday, and that immediately afterward the Strait of Hormuz would be “OPEN TO ALL.” The announcement comes despite earlier caution from Iranian officials about the timing, underscoring how closely markets are watching the next steps in a geopolitical standoff that has already roiled energy flows.

Pakistan, which has been mediating the talks, indicated that an agreement could be reached within 24 hours and that preparations are underway for electronic signing following the finalization. Analysts argue that any credible de-escalation—especially one tied to reopened shipping lanes—could feed into improved sentiment for broader risk assets, including Bitcoin and exchange-traded products.

Key takeaways

• Trump claims Sunday will be the signing date and says the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to all immediately afterward.
• Iranian officials have not confirmed the Sunday timeline, with the foreign ministry spokesperson saying it would not be “tomorrow” and could occur “in the coming days.”
• Pakistan’s mediation role suggests a 24-hour window and preparation for electronic signing, followed by technical discussions next week.
• The conflict has already disrupted global energy supply estimates, a development that has contributed to market-wide risk aversion affecting crypto for months.
• Crypto strategists link expectations of a peace breakthrough with potential relief in Bitcoin and ETF-related demand, contrasting with recent ETF outflows.

Trump’s Sunday signing claim meets uncertainty from Tehran

On Saturday, Trump posted on Truth Social that the memorandum of understanding is “scheduled to get signed tomorrow,” adding that “immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL.” His statement indicates a rapid pivot from ceasefire management toward a broader reopening of one of the world’s most strategically important shipping corridors.

However, the timeline is not uniformly accepted across the negotiations. Iran has not confirmed the Sunday signing. Earlier statements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, carried by state media, suggested the memorandum would not be signed on Sunday and instead could happen “in the coming days.” In those remarks, Baghaei indicated that an exact date would need to be clarified, explicitly pushing back against “tomorrow” as the signing day.

For markets, the disagreement itself matters. When a diplomatic timeline is disputed—particularly one that implies potential easing in energy risk—traders often remain cautious, pricing in both the possibility of a quick resolution and the chance of further delay.

Pakistan signals a 24-hour path to agreement

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also weighed in, saying on X that the region is “closer to a peace deal than ever before.” Sharif stated that finalisation is likely within the next 24 hours and that Pakistan is preparing for electronic signing immediately afterward, followed by technical-level talks next week.

That message is consistent with the mediation posture Pakistan has reportedly taken in the process: offering a near-term cadence for decision-making while keeping the next round of talks in view. Still, with Iran signaling that Sunday might not be accurate, investors have reason to watch whether the signing occurs on schedule—or whether the parties move the date further into the “coming days” window referenced by Baghaei.

Why Hormuz and ceasefire terms matter to crypto sentiment

The anticipated memorandum is expected to extend the ceasefire between the United States and Iran for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While the immediate subject is maritime access and de-escalation, the market impact is broader: disruptions related to the conflict have been widely described as constraining energy supply.

According to the article’s framing, the naval blockade has choked around 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply, contributing to higher global asset prices and a sentiment shock that has pressured crypto markets for months. Even if crypto’s move is not a direct function of shipping lanes alone, the linkage typically works through risk appetite—higher uncertainty can translate into lower willingness to hold volatile assets, while credible de-escalation can do the opposite.

In that sense, a signing date is more than a diplomatic milestone. It serves as an observable signal that the conflict risk premium may begin to unwind, potentially affecting liquidity conditions across financial markets.

Analysts eye relief in Bitcoin and ETF flows after de-escalation

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said a peace deal between Iran and the U.S. would likely trigger a surge in Bitcoin, along with positive ETF flows. He suggested that liquidity would rotate back toward “risk-on” assets, adding that a portion of that renewed liquidity could flow toward crypto following other major market events.

At the same time, recent Bitcoin fund flow data points to caution. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $315.84 million in net outflows for the week ended Friday, according to SoSoValue’s ETF tracking. That week’s results also marked the fifth consecutive week of outflows for Bitcoin-linked crypto funds mentioned in the source.

CoinShares head of research James Butterfill previously told Cointelegraph that pressure on digital asset investment products was being driven largely by geopolitics. He linked the uncertainty around the Iran conflict to pressure on interest-rate expectations—an important bridge between macro conditions and investor behavior in risk assets, including crypto.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $64,491 and up 1.5% over the prior 24 hours, according to the provided snapshot.

Taken together, the current setup is a familiar pattern: traders look for catalysts that can shift global risk sentiment, while recent ETF outflows highlight that positioning has been cautious. If the Sunday signing happens as Trump says—and if subsequent steps confirm Hormuz reopening—market narratives could shift quickly. If the signing is delayed again, expectations may reset and the relief bid could stall.

Readers should focus on the key next milestones: whether the memorandum is actually signed on Sunday, whether Iran further clarifies the date, and what follow-through signals emerge regarding Hormuz access. Those specifics will determine whether “de-escalation” becomes a sustained market theme—or remains a headline-driven hope.

U.S. President Donald Trump said a peace deal with Iran could be signed on Sunday, setting up a direct clash with Tehran over the timing of the agreement.

The claim drew attention across crypto markets because the draft deal is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are watching whether lower energy stress could send capital back into Bitcoin and other risk assets.

“The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday. He added that the “Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL” immediately after the signing.

Pakistan also signaled that talks had moved close to a deal. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the final text had been reached and that an electronic signing could happen within 24 hours.

Tehran disputes the timeline

Iran has not confirmed Trump’s Sunday schedule. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told state media that the memorandum would not be signed on Sunday, but could still move forward later.

“We will have to wait and see about the exact date,” Baghaei said, adding that “it will not be tomorrow.” His statement kept uncertainty in place even as mediators pointed to progress.

Hormuz reopening remains central

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy routes. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed that about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption moved through the passage in 2024.

A reopening would matter for oil, LNG, inflation expectations, and risk appetite. Higher energy costs have weighed on global markets for months and have added pressure to crypto during periods of ETF outflows.

Bitcoin traders watch risk demand

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said a confirmed peace deal could support Bitcoin and other risk assets. “Liquidity will pour back into risk-on assets,” he wrote, adding that crypto could benefit after the SpaceX IPO absorbed attention.

Bitcoin traded near $64,213 on Sunday, after rising about 0.8% over the previous close, per crypto.news market data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also remained under watch after about $315.84 million in weekly net outflows, according to SoSoValue data

As previously reported by crypto.news, recent market updates tied Bitcoin’s weakness to ETF withdrawals, U.S.-Iran tension, and the competition for capital created by the SpaceX offering. Separate reporting cited Galaxy Research, which said only four of 13 Bitcoin bottom signals had triggered.

Galaxy’s base case placed a possible BTC floor between $40,000 and $46,000 by late 2026. That outlook keeps traders cautious, even as peace deal hopes raise the chance of a short-term relief move.

The next market reaction may depend on whether the U.S., Iran, and Pakistan confirm the same signing timeline. Until then, Bitcoin remains tied to headlines from Hormuz, ETF demand, and wider investor appetite for risk. 

A signed deal may ease one source of pressure, but traders still need stronger fund flows before calling a durable recovery. Oil prices and ETF data will be the next checkpoints for short-term crypto positioning.

India’s crypto tax checks have become stricter after the Income Tax Department issued more than 44,000 notices linked to virtual digital asset filings.

The department found more than Rs 888 crore, or about $104 million, in undisclosed VDA income, according to The Economic Times. The figures show how tax officials are using exchange data, TDS filings, and investor returns to track mismatches.

India keeps 30% VDA tax in place

India’s core crypto tax rules remain unchanged for FY 2025-26. Gains from virtual digital assets are taxed at a flat 30%, while eligible transfers face a 1% tax deducted at source.

The Income Tax Department says VDA income is taxed without deductions, except the cost of acquisition. Losses from one crypto asset also cannot be used to reduce gains from another asset.

Schedule VDA becomes a key filing test

Investors must use ITR-2 when reporting crypto as capital gains. Those treating crypto trading as business income must use ITR-3. Both forms include Schedule VDA for detailed transaction reporting.

Schedule VDA does not allow investors to report only net gains. Each trade, swap, disposal, and taxable transfer must be entered separately. A crypto-to-crypto swap can also create a taxable event.

Exchange data raises mismatch risks

Budget 2026 added tighter reporting duties for exchanges, custodians, and wallet providers. These entities must send user-level transaction data to the Income Tax Department.

That data allows the department to compare investor filings with exchange records. A mismatch between Schedule VDA, Form 26AS, TDS records, and exchange reports can trigger a notice.

Offshore holdings face closer review

The compliance net may widen further from 2027. India is aligning with the OECD Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, which supports cross-border sharing of crypto account data.

As previously reported by crypto.news, India has already moved toward tighter digital-asset oversight. Recent rules require platforms to submit user-level transaction data, while overseas crypto holdings may become easier for authorities to trace.

The latest notices show that crypto tax filing in India has moved beyond self-reporting alone. Investors who used multiple exchanges, DeFi platforms, or offshore accounts now face a higher burden to keep full records.

The filing risk is not limited to large traders. Missing staking income, airdrops, wallet transfers, or TDS reconciliation can create questions during review. The department’s message is clear: crypto investors must file accurately before enforcement reaches them.

US President Donald Trump says a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the US–Iran conflict is slated to be signed on Sunday, even though Iranian officials have previously questioned the timing. Trump also claimed that the “Hormuz Strait” would be opened to all immediately after the signing.

The proposed agreement—mediated by Pakistan—would extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While Pakistan’s prime minister said finalization could occur within 24 hours, Iran has not confirmed Sunday as the signing date, leaving traders to weigh the prospect of de-escalation against the risk of further delays.

Key takeaways

• Trump says the US–Iran memorandum is scheduled for Sunday signing and that shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz would follow immediately after.
• Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the agreement could be finalized within 24 hours, with electronic signing likely shortly afterward.
• Iran has indicated the memorandum would not be signed “tomorrow,” pointing instead to “coming days,” creating near-term timeline uncertainty.
• Analysts expect a peace-related improvement in risk sentiment to benefit crypto—particularly Bitcoin—after months of geopolitics-driven pressure.
• Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have been negative for five straight weeks, with CoinShares research previously linking recent digital asset outflows to geopolitics and interest-rate uncertainty.

Sunday signing claim vs. Iran’s timeline uncertainty

In a Saturday post on Truth Social, Trump said: “The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow,” adding that once signed, “the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL.” The statement places the signing squarely on Sunday, setting a clear expectation for immediate follow-on steps that could affect shipping and energy markets.

Pakistan, which has been mediating between the US and Iran, also indicated progress. According to remarks attributed to Pakistani leadership on X, an agreement could be reached within 24 hours.

However, Iran has not confirmed Trump’s timeline. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, told state media earlier that the memorandum would not be signed on Sunday and could instead occur “in the coming days.” That clarification matters because it suggests the ceasefire-extension and Strait-of-Hormuz reopenings may depend on a final date agreed by all parties—not just on public statements from Washington and intermediaries.

The deal in question is described as a memorandum of understanding. It is expected to extend the ceasefire between the US and Iran for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Still, until Iran confirms the signing date and details, markets may treat Sunday as a scenario rather than a certainty.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters for crypto risk appetite

During the conflict, the naval blockade has reportedly choked around 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply, according to the article’s summary. That kind of disruption can spill into macro conditions—raising energy costs, influencing inflation expectations, and amplifying risk premiums across asset classes.

Crypto has not been immune. The same disruption has been linked to a sentiment shock that “pressed crypto markets for months,” reflecting how geopolitical escalation can tighten financial conditions and reduce appetite for volatile assets.

If de-escalation proceeds as envisioned—particularly reopening the Strait of Hormuz—investors may look for improved macro visibility and a broader shift back toward “risk-on” behavior. In practice, that can translate into increased demand for high-beta assets like Bitcoin, especially when market participants believe liquidity constraints may ease.

What analysts are watching for Bitcoin and ETF flows

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said a peace deal between Iran and the US could trigger a “surge in Bitcoin,” alongside positive ETF flows. His thesis is tied to liquidity returning to risk assets once uncertainty fades.

Van de Poppe’s view also comes alongside ongoing data on Bitcoin ETF performance. According to the referenced SoSoValue tracking, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded about $315.84 million in net outflows for the week ended Friday—marking the fifth consecutive week of outflows for Bitcoin-linked crypto funds. Persistent redemptions are important because they can offset spot buying from other parts of the market, dampening upside momentum even if headlines improve.

Separately, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill told Cointelegraph earlier that recent outflows from digital asset investment products were driven primarily by geopolitics. In that account, uncertainty around the Iran conflict was seen as weighing on expectations for interest rates—an interaction that can influence the valuation and risk appetite of crypto assets.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $64,491, up roughly 1.5% over 24 hours. While that immediate move suggests some buyers respond to improving headlines, the broader ETF trend indicates the market’s positioning remains cautious.

De-escalation is likely beneficial—but the deal still has execution risk

The clearest tension in the story is the gap between declared signing timing and Iran’s stated uncertainty. Trump’s “tomorrow” claim and Pakistan’s expectation of near-term finalization set a near-term catalyst in motion. Yet Iran’s messaging that the memorandum would not be signed Sunday implies that execution risk remains.

For traders and long-horizon investors, this is more than diplomatic theater. If the signing is delayed, markets that priced a rapid reduction in geopolitical risk could reverse quickly—particularly in a market already contending with ongoing ETF outflows. On the other hand, if the memorandum is signed and implementation steps begin, the energy and macro channel that has weighed on sentiment could start to unwind.

Even in optimistic scenarios, investors will likely track whether reopening steps for the Strait of Hormuz are actually operational, not just announced. That practical follow-through is what determines whether the conflict’s macro impacts—energy disruption and related inflation fears—turn into a relief factor rather than another unresolved headline.

Going forward, the key question is whether Iran ultimately confirms Sunday signing—or whether the memorandum shifts further into “coming days.” Readers should also watch for whether any post-signing commitments translate into measurable changes for shipping and energy-market expectations, since that is where crypto sentiment has been most sensitive so far.

CoinFund founder Jake Brukhman said the Anthropic export-control dispute shows why decentralized AI networks are gaining attention as a possible counterweight to centralized model control.

In a June 13 X post, Brukhman said AI models are a centralizing force and a major target for government control. He linked that view to Anthropic’s decision to comply with a U.S. directive that forced it to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5.

Anthropic said the order required it to block access for foreign nationals, including foreign-national employees, whether inside or outside the United States. The company said it disabled both models for all users to meet the directive, while other Claude models remained available.

Anthropic shutdown highlights distributed GPU training

Brukhman said decentralized networks can act as a counterbalance because AI’s first hard problem is access to large-scale compute. “The answer is simple: there is enough commodity GPU compute in the world to compete on the frontier,” he wrote, adding that new training methods are needed to use it.

He named Gensyn, Prime Intellect, Bagel, Pluralis, Nous Research, Macrocosmos AI, and Covenant as teams working on distributed training. He said their work shows that decentralized training is possible, cheaper, and nearly as efficient as centralized systems, though the sector still faces technical limits.

Pluralis model draws business focus

Brukhman also pointed to the business problem facing open-source AI. He argued that open models can be useful but often lack a revenue model strong enough to support frontier training costs.

He said Pluralis has proposed one answer by splitting model weights among participants. In his view, that structure can support tokenized AI models because no single participant holds the full model, while the network can still provide access to the system.

Broader AI pressure

As previously reported by crypto.news, Anthropic launched Fable 5 only days before the shutdown, presenting it as a Mythos-class model with added safeguards. The same report said some cybersecurity, biology, chemistry, and distillation requests would fall back to Claude Opus 4.8.

Earlier reports also showed the scale of AI infrastructure demand. Blackstone and Apollo were lining up about $36 billion in debt financing for Anthropic’s Google TPU expansion. Separate reporting on open AI infrastructure said concentrated compute access can leave whole regions dependent on a few providers.

Brukhman framed the moment as a choice between centralized AI and public AI on open networks. “This is the moment of truth,” he wrote, asking whether AI will fall under “censorship and unilateral government control” or move toward decentralized systems.