More than three quarters of UK businesses are already feeling the impact of the Middle East conflict, as rising energy costs and supply chain disruption begin to feed through into operations, yet confidence at the firm level remains notably resilient.

New research from Barclays, based on a survey of more than 500 business leaders, shows that 66 per cent of companies are experiencing pressure from higher fuel and energy prices, while half report moderate to significant disruption to supply chains.

The findings highlight the speed at which geopolitical instability is affecting day-to-day business activity, with shipping and logistics costs also rising for 43 per cent of firms, adding further strain to margins.

Companies are already responding by adjusting operations and cutting costs. Around 37 per cent have taken steps to reduce energy usage or improve efficiency across their supply chains, while nearly a third have increased prices to offset rising expenses.

Other measures include reducing discretionary spending and tightening overall cost control, with many firms expecting to intensify these actions over the coming months. More than a third are planning further price increases, signalling that cost pressures are likely to continue feeding through to consumers.

The data suggests that while businesses are adapting quickly, the cumulative effect of higher costs and uncertainty is beginning to reshape decision-making across sectors.

Access to finance is emerging as a key factor in maintaining resilience. Barclays’ research shows that 41 per cent of businesses see support with cashflow management as essential, while 39 per cent highlight the importance of working capital and short-term credit.

Existing cash reserves are also playing a crucial role, with more than 80 per cent of firms identifying them as vital in navigating current conditions. Trade finance and cross-border payment solutions are similarly viewed as important tools for managing disruption in international markets.

Abdul Qureshi, head of business banking at Barclays, said the current environment presents a “convergence of pressures” for UK firms.

“For SMEs, dependable cash flow and access to working capital are increasingly important, not only to keep operations running, but to safeguard future growth plans,” he said.

The impact of rising costs is already being reflected in consumer spending patterns. Barclays data shows fuel spending rose by nearly 11 per cent year-on-year at the onset of the conflict, driven by higher prices and demand.

At the same time, discretionary spending is beginning to soften, with spending on holidays and travel falling by almost 8 per cent as households adopt a more cautious approach to their finances.

This shift in consumer behaviour is likely to create additional headwinds for businesses, particularly those reliant on non-essential spending.

Despite these challenges, the research reveals a striking divergence between business-level confidence and broader economic sentiment.

While 78 per cent of firms remain confident in their own prospects and 74 per cent are optimistic about their sector, confidence in the wider economy is significantly weaker. Fewer than half of respondents expressed confidence in the UK economy, with even lower levels for the global outlook.

This suggests that while businesses believe they can manage current pressures internally, there is growing concern about the external environment and its longer-term implications.

Most business leaders expect geopolitical uncertainty to weigh on investment and growth plans over the next year, although the majority anticipate only a moderate impact. A smaller proportion, around one in ten, foresee a significant constraint on their operations.

Matt Hammerstein, chief executive of Barclays UK Corporate Bank, said firms are being forced to balance immediate challenges with long-term planning.

“Businesses are having to manage disruption today while remaining ready to invest and grow when conditions improve,” he said.

The findings paint a picture of an economy under pressure but not yet in retreat. UK businesses are adapting to rising costs and uncertainty, drawing on cash reserves and financial support to maintain stability.

However, the persistence of energy price volatility and geopolitical risk means the coming months will be critical.

While confidence at the firm level remains strong, the widening gap with broader economic sentiment suggests that resilience may be tested further if external conditions deteriorate, particularly if cost pressures intensify or demand weakens.

Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.

‘I’m proud to take on this role at such an important time for the organisation’

Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce has appointed past president Wayne Jones OBE as its new chair in a move it says “marks a new chapter for the organisation, but one rooted firmly in continuity”.

The Chamber was sold out of administration last year, with directors vowing a “seamless transition” of its business support services. Now Mr Jones, who has been a Chamber board member for more than a decade, is to succeed Phil Cusack as chair.

Mr Jones serves on the Liverpool-Manchester Railway Partnership Board and was in 2016 named a Global Ambassador for Manchester. He was previously a member of the executive board of MAN Energy (now Everllence).

In a statement, the Chamber said: “His appointment comes at a pivotal moment. Greater Manchester Chamber is entering its first full financial year as a new organisation, and the role of Chair has never carried more weight. With the organisation navigating a period of genuine evolution, the Chair’s responsibilities extend beyond the boardroom: providing leadership, representing the Chamber’s voice externally, and maintaining the confidence of the business community across all ten boroughs of Greater Manchester.”

Mr Jones said: “Greater Manchester has always been a place that punches above its weight, and the Chamber has a vital role to play in making sure businesses here have the support, the platform and the representation they deserve. I’m proud to take on this role at such an important time for the organisation, and I’m looking forward to getting to work.”

Emma Holt, president of the Chamber, added: “Wayne has been part of the foundation of this organisation for a significant period. He knows what we stand for, he knows what Greater Manchester needs, and he has the credibility and the drive to help us move forward with purpose. We’re delighted to welcome him into this role.”

The Chamber also paid tribute to Phil Cusak’s “service and commitment” to the organisation.

U.S. gasoline prices on Monday topped $4 a gallon nationwide, adding pressure to household budgets as oil markets surge in response to the lingering Iran conflict.

Data from GasBuddy showed the national average price for regular gasoline at $4.018 per gallon, with mid-grade at $4.541 and premium at $4.904. AAA data also confirmed the national average moving above the $4 threshold, reinforcing the upward trend in fuel costs.

Prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, with the national average up about $1.06 per gallon, or roughly 36%, when tensions escalated following U.S. and Israeli strikes targeting Iran in late February. 

The increase reflects a broader rally in oil markets, with U.S. crude futures settling at $102.88 a barrel on Monday, up $3.24. Prices also jumped more than $3 in Asian trading after Kuwait said an oil tanker was attacked at a Dubai port, underscoring ongoing supply risks.

OIL HAS SURGED SINCE THE IRAN CONFLICT BEGAN, BUT GAS PRICES MAY NOT BE DONE RISING

Gas prices are displayed at an Arco station on March 30, 2026, in Los Angeles. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Fuel markets have been particularly sensitive to disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global crude shipments, where Iran has effectively restricted traffic, tightening supply expectations.

Further gains at the pump are possible if crude prices continue to rise, analysts say.

The Trump administration has moved to mitigate the impact, issuing a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act that allows foreign-flagged vessels to transport fuel and other goods between U.S. ports. However, industry analysts expect the measure to have only a limited effect on retail gasoline prices.

POWELL WARNS OF NEW ENERGY SUPPLY SHOCK AS GAS PRICES SURGE: ‘NO ONE KNOWS HOW BIG IT WILL BE’

High gas prices are listed at Chevron station in Los Angeles on March 9, 2026. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

Rising fuel costs are weighing on consumers already facing broader price pressures and have emerged as a political challenge for President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections.

An Iranian national flag flies at the Persian Gulf Star Co. gas condensate refinery in Bandar Abbas, Iran. (Ali Mohammadi/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

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Trump has pledged to reduce energy prices and boost domestic oil and gas production, but his second term has so far been marked by market volatility and geopolitical tensions.

Reuters contributed to this report. 

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The company, which manufactures rockets, space exploration technology and Starlink satellites, is currently privately held. But on Wednesday it made a confidential filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an initial public offering, which would allow shares to be traded in the stock market.

Luka Doncic is delivering one of the most dominant offensive seasons in NBA history, leading the league in scoring while carrying the Los Angeles Lakers to a strong playoff position, yet the Slovenian superstar faces long odds of capturing the 2026 Kia Most Valuable Player award with just weeks left in the regular season.

As of April 1, 2026, Doncic’s MVP odds sit between +1100 and +2700 across major sportsbooks, placing him third or fourth behind clear frontrunners Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs. Betting markets and prediction platforms give him roughly a 4-8% implied probability of winning, a sharp contrast to his status as a preseason contender.

Doncic, in his first full season with the Lakers after a mid-career trade, is averaging a league-leading 33.7-33.8 points per game, along with 7.8 rebounds and 8.2-8.3 assists. He is shooting 47.6-47.7% from the field and 36.6-36.8% from three-point range through 63 games. His scoring barrage has included multiple 40- and 50-point outbursts, including a memorable 60-point performance that helped fuel a 13-2 Lakers surge in March.

The Lakers sit third in the Western Conference with a 48-26 record, benefiting from Doncic’s playmaking alongside LeBron James and supporting cast. Coach JJ Redick has publicly stated that a strong finish could bolster Doncic’s case, and the star has climbed the official Kia MVP Ladder in recent weeks, reaching as high as No. 2 before slipping to No. 4 in the latest update behind Wembanyama, Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic.

Despite the gaudy numbers, several factors are working against Doncic in voter eyes. The MVP award has increasingly rewarded team success and two-way impact in recent years. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder to the best record in the league at around 60-16 or better, while anchoring an elite defense. Wembanyama, at just 22, has elevated the Spurs to a top seed with transformative two-way play, ranking near the top in blocks, rebounds and efficiency.

Voters also weigh narrative and precedent. Doncic has finished in the top five in MVP voting multiple times but has never won. Critics point to defensive limitations and high usage rates that sometimes lead to late-game fatigue. Some analysts argue the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, making it harder for pure scorers to claim the award without elite team wins or defensive contributions.

Advanced metrics paint a mixed picture. Doncic leads in scoring and ranks high in assist percentage, with strong efficiency considering his workload. However, models that factor in team record, defensive rating and games played give the edge to Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama. Basketball-Reference’s MVP tracker currently ranks Doncic third with roughly 5% projected vote share, well behind the leaders.

The race remains fluid entering April. The Lakers have been one of the hottest teams in the league, winning nine of 10 or better in recent stretches, which has helped Doncic’s case. A continued strong finish combined with any slippage from the top two contenders could narrow the gap. Yet with only a handful of games remaining, dramatic shifts are unlikely unless injuries or extraordinary performances intervene.

Doncic’s supporters highlight the historic nature of his output. Averaging over 33 points while playing heavy minutes in a loaded Western Conference is rare. His playmaking vision remains elite, and he has shown improved conditioning and leadership in Los Angeles. Lakers fans and some media voices argue that if the team secures home-court advantage or climbs higher, Doncic deserves serious consideration.

Historically, the MVP often goes to the player whose team achieves the best record while posting superstar numbers. Gilgeous-Alexander’s efficiency, leadership of a title contender and defensive versatility make him the betting favorite at -350 to -550. Wembanyama’s two-way dominance and youth narrative have propelled him to +210 to +550 in recent weeks, with some ladders placing him at No. 1.

Jokic, the reigning two-time MVP, remains in the mix with triple-double prowess but has seen his odds lengthen to +4000 or longer as Denver’s record lags behind the top teams. Other names such as Jaylen Brown appear as longshots.

For Doncic to win, several scenarios would likely need to align: the Lakers finishing with one of the top two or three records in the West, continued 30-plus point explosions, and perhaps a narrative shift emphasizing his individual brilliance amid a star-studded roster. Even then, overcoming the current gap in betting markets and voter sentiment would be an uphill battle.

The 27-year-old remains in his prime and has expressed focus on team success over individual awards. In recent interviews, he has downplayed MVP talk while emphasizing playoff preparation. His ability to elevate teammates has been evident in Los Angeles, where the supporting cast has thrived alongside his playmaking.

As the regular season winds down, every remaining game carries added weight. The Thunder, Spurs and Lakers are all battling for seeding and momentum. A late surge by any contender could reshape the final MVP Ladder before ballots are cast.

Ultimately, while Luka Doncic is producing video-game numbers and carrying the Lakers into contention, the combination of team records and two-way excellence from Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama makes a 2026 MVP victory unlikely. He sits as a compelling dark horse with odds reflecting a small but real chance — perhaps 5% or less in most models.

Doncic has already cemented his place among the league’s elite. Whether he claims the Maurice Podoloff Trophy this season or adds to his growing legacy in future years, his 2025-26 campaign stands as one of the most impressive individual offensive seasons in recent memory. For now, the award appears headed elsewhere, but in the unpredictable world of NBA awards, the final weeks could still hold surprises.