Bitcoin has retreated toward $65,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision as traders cut risk and reassess the outlook for interest rates under newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price fell from a June 16 high of near $67,200 to an intraday low around $65,236 on June 17 before stabilizing near $65,300 at press time. The pullback came as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, with policymakers expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% when the decision is released later today.

Attention has instead shifted to the Fed’s updated dot plot and Warsh’s first post-meeting press conference. Traders have increasingly focused on whether policymakers abandon any remaining easing bias and reinforce expectations that borrowing costs could remain elevated for longer amid inflation running above 4%.

Outside crypto, the cautious mood extended across several asset classes. Gold and silver both traded modestly lower during the session, while crude oil slid toward $75 per barrel for a fifth consecutive day as markets priced in the possibility of renewed Iranian oil exports under a proposed U.S.-Iran agreement.

At the same time, Asian technology shares continued attracting capital, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 reaching fresh record highs above 70,000 amid ongoing enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence investments.

Technical structure leaves Bitcoin trapped between $60K support and $68K resistance

Bitcoin’s recent rebound from below $60,000 has stalled near a major technical resistance zone.

On the daily chart, BTC has returned to a support-turned-resistance region between roughly $65,200 and $65,800. The area previously acted as a key floor during February and March before breaking during the sharp selloff earlier this month. BTC price briefly reclaimed the zone before slipping back underneath it.

Momentum indicators remain mixed. The daily RSI has recovered from oversold territory but remains below the neutral 50 mark, while the MACD continues to trade beneath its signal line despite narrowing bearish momentum.

On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin has also fallen back below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $65,016 after failing to sustain a breakout above the 50% retracement around $66,829.

According to analyst Kamile Uray, the market is now closely watching whether support around $63,700 can hold.

“In deep declines, we will be tracking the 60000 level. This level must be held. Otherwise, the decline deepens further.”

On the positive side, Uray added that $67,500 remains the first major resistance zone, while a sustained move above $74,500 would be required to restore a stronger bullish structure.

Meanwhile, CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps show a dense concentration of leveraged positions sitting above current prices. Commenting on the setup, crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that “$68K is the biggest one to watch in the short term,” adding that the largest liquidity clusters now sit above the market after Bitcoin swept liquidity beneath $60,000 earlier this month.

Fed guidance and Middle East tensions could determine the next move

Macro developments remain the primary risk factor heading into the Fed announcement.

While falling oil prices have eased some inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty has persisted after Iran accused Israel of violating a Lebanon truce dozens of times and warned of a “harsh response” if attacks continue.

Tehran has also linked any final agreement with Washington to sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, and an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.

The combination of Fed uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and persistent institutional caution has kept Bitcoin below major resistance despite recovering from its June lows.

A break above $68,000 could expose the next liquidity zones near $74,000 and $78,000, where large concentrations of leveraged positions remain.

On the downside, losing support around $63,700 would place renewed focus on $60,000. A decisive move below that level could open the door toward the $55,000–$50,000 region highlighted by several market analysts.

XRP price traded near $1.20 on June 17 as buyers tried to hold a narrow support zone while ETF inflows and spot demand improved.

According to crypto.news market data, XRP fell 3.29% over 24 hours, with trading volume at $1.76 billion. The token ranged between $1.20 and $1.25, while its market cap stood at about $74.45 billion.

XRP price holds $1.20 as ETF inflows return

The latest pullback came after XRP briefly pushed above $1.26 and reached as high as $1.2996, according to levels tracked by analyst EGRAG Crypto. He said the next task is to see whether XRP can turn old resistance into new support.

EGRAG wrote that holding above $1.19 keeps the “structure remains bullish,” while a move below that level could open a retest of lower support. He also said a loss of $1.14 would weaken the setup again.

ETF flows remain a key support factor. XRP products recorded a second straight week of inflows, adding $10.68 million and lifting cumulative inflows near $1.44 billion.

Daily flows also improved. According to SoSoValue, XRP products added $5.30 million on June 16, up from $2.82 million on June 15. Total net assets still slipped to $1.06 billion from $1.11 billion, showing that price weakness offset some demand.

As previously reported by crypto.news, XRP-linked products had already outpaced Bitcoin and Ethereum funds for five straight weeks. That demand has not stopped the chart from staying weak, but it has helped keep XRP above the deeper $1.10 area.

Spot demand clashes with Binance short pressure

CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said XRP reclaimed $1.20 while spot cumulative volume delta rose to $267.4 million, its highest level since mid-May. He said the same metric stood near negative $177 million on April 12.

The reading suggests spot buyers have returned across exchanges. That matters because spot buying reflects direct demand for XRP, not only leveraged trading.

The derivatives market tells a different story. Taha said Binance perpetual CVD fell to a record low near negative $792.5 million, down from about negative $218 million on May 12.

This means Binance perpetual traders kept selling even as spot demand improved. With open interest near $251 million, leverage has not fully left the market. If spot buyers keep absorbing that pressure, short positions may face stress. If demand fades, the same setup may increase downside risk.

Moreover, BankXRP also pointed to a deposit and withdrawal pattern on Binance. The analyst said XRP printed the same exchange flow signal that appeared near the last two cycle bottoms, though he warned the sample size is small.

Technical setup keeps XRP inside the range

Bollinger Bands show XRP trading near the middle band. Price was near $1.1957, close to the middle band around $1.1948, while the upper band sat near $1.3471 and the lower band near $1.0425.

That position shows XRP is not at a clear volatility extreme. The bands also look compressed compared with earlier moves, which points to consolidation rather than a confirmed breakout.

A move toward the upper band near $1.35 would show better strength. A rejection from the middle band would keep XRP range-bound and leave sellers in control of short-term direction.

The RSI stood at 45.71, still below the neutral 50 level. Its moving average was near 34.62, meaning downside pressure has eased, but momentum has not fully turned positive.

Key XRP levels decide the next move

EGRAG’s daily map places $1.11 as the survival zone, $1.21 as first strength, and $1.28 as the next level where structure improves. He said $1.35 to $1.38 would show stronger buyer control, while $1.51 remains the major breakout area.

That view matches the current range. XRP must hold $1.19 first, then reclaim $1.28 and $1.35 before a wider recovery can gain force. A break below $1.14 would put $1.11 and $1.05 back in focus.

As crypto.news reported earlier, XRP had already faced pressure near $1.14 after ETF outflows and whale selling weakened the market in early June. More recent coverage also noted that whale accumulation and $1.30 resistance remain key factors after the latest rebound.

The market now has two competing signals. ETF inflows and spot CVD point to demand, while weak RSI, compressed Bollinger Bands, and heavy Binance short pressure show caution.

The US dollar remains well supported against most major currencies, although the next phase of its movement will largely depend on the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting. Investors are adopting a cautious stance ahead of the interest rate decision, the release of updated FOMC economic projections, and Jerome Powell’s press conference. Particular attention will be paid to policymakers’ forecasts, as these could reshape expectations regarding the number of potential rate cuts before the end of the year.

Market participants will also focus on a fresh batch of US economic data. Today’s retail sales figures are expected to provide further insight into the strength of consumer demand in the United States. Investors will also monitor Canada’s New Housing Price Index ahead of the Fed decision. While the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, the key driver for markets will be any signals regarding the future path of monetary policy and the timing of possible rate cuts.

USD/JPY

Sellers in USD/JPY managed to trigger a correction towards 159.50 last week. However, they failed to develop a sustained downward move, and the pair is once again trading above 160.00. Technical analysis of USD/JPY points to range-bound trading within the 159.50–160.70 corridor. It appears that investors require clearer guidance from the Fed regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

Key events for USD/JPY:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core Retail Sales;
• Today at 16:30 (GMT+3): speech by US President Donald Trump;
• Today at 21:00 (GMT+3): Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD reached fresh yearly highs last week and tested the psychological resistance level at 1.4000. Following the breakout above the year’s previous peak, the pair has entered a consolidation phase within the 1.3950–1.4020 range. A sustained move below 1.3950 could trigger a corrective decline towards the 1.3850–1.3900 area. Conversely, a decisive break and close above 1.4000 could pave the way for further gains towards the next significant resistance zone near 1.4130.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada New Housing Price Index;
• Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories;
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI).

The dollar remains close to important technical levels against both the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar, but the next directional move is likely to be determined by the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting. Should the Fed maintain a hawkish tone and reaffirm its cautious approach to rate cuts, USD/JPY and USD/CAD may extend their gains and attempt to break through current resistance levels. A more dovish message from Powell, however, could encourage profit-taking in the dollar and lead to a corrective pullback following the strong rally seen in recent weeks.

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Bitcoin (BTC) risked wiping out its Iran truce gains and returning toward the $60,000 psychological support as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its interest rates to their highest level in 30 years.

Key takeaways:

• BTC has averaged a 5.74% decline in the 30 days after the last four BoJ rate hikes.
• A repeat of previous post-hike drawdowns puts Bitcoin’s downside range between $62,700 and $56,700.

Previous BOJ hikes warn of 30-day Bitcoin losses

On Tuesday, the BoJ raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% on June 16, marking Japan’s highest interest-rate level since 1995.

The move came as policymakers responded to persistent inflation risks from higher energy costs and lingering Middle East supply disruptions.

Bitcoin dropped by nearly 2.5% from its local high at $67,250, but was maintaining its June gains. Its historical performance after BoJ rate hikes, however, points to downside risks.

In the 30 days after the last four BOJ hikes, Bitcoin averaged a 5.74% decline. BTC fell 5.59% after the March 2024 hike, 10.89% after the July 2024 hike, and 14.77% after the January 2025 hike.

BTC/USD three-day chart. Source: TradingView

The only positive case came after the December 2025 hike, when BTC gained 8.31% over the following 30 days. However, that rebound followed Bitcoin’s sharp correction from its October 2025 peak, suggesting the market was already deeply oversold before the BoJ decision.

Applying Bitcoin’s average 5.74% post-BoJ decline to its current price near $66,500 puts the downside target near $62,700, just above the $59,000–$62,000 demand zone (red area in the chart below).

BTC/USD three-day chart. Source: TradingView

A sharper pullback matching the July 2024 post-hike drop would send BTC toward $59,200, while a repeat of January 2025’s decline would imply a fall to $56,700.

Broader post-BoJ drawdown phases have been even steeper, with Bitcoin losing between 26% and 38% after Japan’s rate decisions since March 2024, a chart shared by crypto analyst Gerla shows.

BTC/USDT three-day chart. Source: TradingView/Gerla

BOJ hikes have often arrived near US recessions

BoJ rate-hiking cycles have historically coincided with US recessions, with the COVID shock being the main exception, noted André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, in a Tuesday post.

BoJ’s unsecured overnight call rate vs. US recession periods. Source: Bloomberg Terminal/André Dragosch

The pattern suggests the BoJ often tightens policy late in the global cycle, when inflation pressure is already high, and liquidity conditions are becoming less supportive for risk assets.

Japan has been a key source of cheap money for global markets for years.

When Japanese rates were near zero, traders could borrow yen at low cost and use that money to buy riskier assets elsewhere, including stocks and crypto. But as Japan raises rates, that trade typically becomes less attractive.

Related: Bitcoin recovery rests on US-Iran deal as momentum remains weak

Some traders may then cut their borrowed positions to reduce risk. That can hurt assets like Bitcoin, which often falls harder when global investors become more cautious.

Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock linked to Michael Saylor’s variable-rate Bitcoin yield product, “Stretch” (STRC), slid to near record lows on Tuesday as investors appeared to question whether the company’s latest round of Bitcoin buying can be sustained alongside its dividend commitments.

According to Cointelegraph, STRC fell 3.58% to $91.79 on Tuesday. The move leaves the share price about 8.2% below its $100 target (par) value. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, said the decline is tied to Strategy’s recent Bitcoin acquisitions, with traders apparently viewing the new purchases as an “unsustainable path” for the preferred offering.

Key takeaways

• STRC dropped 3.58% to $91.79, trading roughly 8.2% below its $100 target value.
• Thielen said the latest Bitcoin purchases may be crowding out expectations for dividend support.
• Stretch is structured to target an 11.5% dividend at par, but the current effective yield is cited as 12.5% after the price decline.
• Broader “risk-off” sentiment and ongoing concerns about Strategy’s capital structure and issuance strategy were also flagged.
• Stretch faces competitive pressure from Strive’s variable-rate preferred shares (SATA), cited as offering an effective yield of about 13% while trading near $100.

Why STRC slipped after Strategy’s latest Bitcoin purchases

Stretch is designed to deliver a dividend of 11.5% at a par value of $100. But with STRC trading down to $91.79, the effective yield implied by the product’s mechanics rises to about 12.5%, a change that should, in theory, make the instrument more attractive to yield-seeking investors.

Instead, the stock’s weakening suggests the market is focusing on the trade-off between growth and payouts. Thielen told Cointelegraph that investors would “rather see [Strategy] not acquiring more BTC and rather keep the cash for dividend payments,” implying that the perceived funding priority shifted away from dividends and toward additional Bitcoin exposure.

In other words, even though the lower share price mathematically increases yield, the market appears to be questioning whether Strategy will have—or will choose to keep—enough liquidity to sustain that yield level as it continues buying Bitcoin.

Fresh buy rounds and the cash-versus-dividend debate

The timing matters. On Monday, Strategy said it acquired 1,587 Bitcoin for roughly $100 million in the prior week, according to earlier Cointelegraph reporting linked in the article. The week before, it bought 1,550 BTC for about $100 million. The combined purchases pushed its holdings to 846,842 Bitcoin.

Thielen’s point was that the market may interpret these buy sizes and frequency as a signal that cash will be diverted from near-term dividend support. That interpretation can weigh on preferred instruments tied to equity-like dividend expectations, especially when the market is already treating the “dividend at par” premise as something that must be actively financed rather than passively earned.

For holders, the immediate question is whether Strategy’s approach to deploying capital can keep the preferred near its $100 reference level without forcing the company to lean harder on tools such as additional issuance. For traders, the question becomes more tactical: whether the next round of Bitcoin purchases calms or intensifies uncertainty around dividend durability.

Risk-off sentiment and worries about Strategy’s capital structure

Beyond the specific Bitcoin buys, the article also cites broader macro and positioning effects. Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that “broader risk-off sentiment in crypto markets has weighed on investor appetite.”

Ruck added that although the variable dividend framework is meant to anchor the perpetual preferred near par—by delivering an effective yield above 12%—persistent selling pressure is testing that resilience. He also pointed to concerns over Strategy’s expanding capital structure and “ATM issuance” as factors pressuring the shares in the near term.

That combination helps explain why the market response may not be purely arithmetic. If investors believe the dividend-support mechanism could be stressed by how Strategy raises additional funds, then the preferred’s stated yield can look less secure even when it appears attractive on paper.

Shares fall alongside Strategy’s equity; competition narrows the margin

The pressure has not been limited to STRC. The article notes that Strategy’s common stock (MSTR) fell 6.35% on Tuesday to close at $122.81, and is down 67% over the past 12 months, according to Cointelegraph’s reference to market performance.

This matters because these instruments are often priced together by the market’s view of Strategy’s Bitcoin exposure and financing approach. When equity weakens sharply, preferred products tied to Strategy’s balance sheet and capital strategy can struggle to maintain their reference valuation.

At the same time, Stretch’s competitive positioning appears under pressure. The article highlights Strive’s perpetual variable-rate preferred shares (SATA), which are cited as trading at $100 while offering an effective yield of about 13%. If investors conclude that SATA’s yield and pricing are more stable—especially during risk-off periods—capital can rotate away from instruments like STRC, widening discount pressure.

What to watch next

Going forward, traders and income-focused investors are likely to focus on whether Strategy’s next financing and buy decisions support the dividend anchor intended by Stretch’s structure—or whether further Bitcoin acquisitions keep raising questions about cash allocation. Until the market gets clearer signals on that balance, STRC may remain sensitive both to Bitcoin buying headlines and to broader risk sentiment across crypto markets.