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What to Expect From January US Nonfarm Payrolls Data

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What to Expect From January US Nonfarm Payrolls Data

The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.

Volatility around the US Dollar (USD) will likely ramp up on the employment report, with investors looking for fresh insights on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path forward on interest rates.

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What to Expect From the Next Nonfarm Payrolls Report?

The BLS reported early last week that it had postponed the release of the official employment report, originally scheduled on Friday, due to the partial government shutdown. After the US House passed a package on Tuesday to end the shutdown, the agency announced that it will release the labor market data on Wednesday, February 11.

Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December. In this period, the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, is projected to soften to 3.6% from 3.8%.

Previewing the employment report, TD Securities analysts note that they expect job gains to have remained subdued in January, increasing by 45K.

“We look for private to add 40K and government to add 5K. We expect private sector strength to be concentrated in healthcare and construction. We look for the Unemployment Rate to show continued signs of stabilization, remaining at 4.4%. The low-fire, low-hire labor market remains. Average Hourly Earnings likely increased 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y,” they add.

How Will the US September Nonfarm Payrolls Affect Eur/USD?

The USD started the month on a firm footing as markets reacted to the nomination of Kevin Warsh, who served as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011, as the new chair of the Fed. Meanwhile, the USD also benefited from the heightened volatility surrounding precious metals, especially Silver and Gold, and Stock markets. 

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In turn, the USD Index, which gauges the USD’s valuation against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.5% in the first week of February. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said earlier in the month that she believes the labor market will continue to be supported by last year’s interest rate cuts. 

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Cook further noted that the labor market has stabilized and is approximately in balance, adding that policymakers remain highly attentive to the potential for a rapid shift. 

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Similarly, Governor Philip Jefferson argued that the job market is likely in balance with a low-hire, low-fire environment. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in about a 15% probability of a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut in March. 

In case the NFP reading disappoints, with a print below 30K, and the Unemployment Rate rises unexpectedly, the USD could come under pressure with the immediate reaction, opening the door to a leg higher in EUR/USD. On the other hand, an NFP figure at or above the market expectation could reaffirm another policy hold next month. 

The market positioning suggests that the USD has some room on the upside in this scenario. Investors will also pay close attention to the wage inflation component of the report. 

If Average Hourly Earnings rise less than expected, the USD could find it difficult to gather strength, even if the headline NFP print arrives near the market forecast.

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Danske Bank analysts argue that softer wage growth could negatively impact consumer activity and pave the way for a dovish Fed action.

“The Challenger report showed more job cuts than expected in January and the JOLTs Job Openings came in at 6.5m in December (consensus 7.2m). Hence, the US ratio of job openings to unemployed fell to just 0.87 in December. Such cooling is usually a good predictor for weakening wage growth and may be a concern for the private consumption outlook and, all else equal, supports the case for earlier cuts from the Fed,” they explain.

Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:

“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds above 50, and EUR/USD fluctuates above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after having tested this dynamic support last week, reflecting buyers’ willingness to retain control.” “On the upside, 1.2000 (round level, psychological level) aligns as the next resistance before 1.2080 (January 27 high) and 1.2160 (static level). Looking south, the first key support level could be spotted at 1.1680, where the 100-day SMA is located, before 1.1620-1.1600 (200-day SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the January 2025-January 2026 uptrend). A decisive drop below this support region could attract technical sellers and open the door for an extended slide.”

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Aims Recovery While USD/JPY Gives Back Recent Gains

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Aims Recovery While USD/JPY Gives Back Recent Gains

EUR/USD is recovering losses from 1.1450. USD/JPY is correcting gains from 160.50 and might decline further below 158.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

· The Euro struggled to stay in a positive zone and declined below 1.1600 before finding support.

· There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1575 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.

· USD/JPY rallied significantly before the bears appeared near 160.45.

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· There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 159.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from 1.1640. The Euro declined below 1.1600 and 1.1520 against the US Dollar.

The pair even declined below 1.1500 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1445 zone. A low was formed at 1.1443, and the pair is now recovering losses. There was a move above 1.1500 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The pair surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1639 swing high to the 1.1443 low. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 61.8% Fib retracement and 1.1575. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1575.

The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 1.1605. An upside break above 1.1605 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1640.

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If not, the pair might drop again. Immediate support is near 1.1520. The next key area of interest might be 1.1480 or the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break below 1.1480, the pair could drop toward 1.1445. The main target for the bears on the EUR/USD chart could be 1.1400, below which the pair could start a major decline.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 160.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below 159.50 against the Japanese Yen.

The pair even settled below 159.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed at 158.44, and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the downside, the first major support is near 158.45.

The next key region for the bulls might be 158.00. If there is a close below 158.00, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward 156.80. Any more losses might send the pair toward 155.00.

Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.46 swing high to the 158.44 low at 158.90.

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If there is a close above 158.90 and the hourly RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 159.20. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 159.20. The next major barrier for the bulls could be near the 50% Fib retracement level at 159.45, above which the pair could test 160.00 in the coming days.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

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Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

Wall Street asset management giant Franklin Templeton is launching a dedicated cryptocurrency division as it deepens its push into digital assets, anchored by a planned acquisition of crypto investment firm 250 Digital.

The new unit, called Franklin Crypto, will bring together the 250 Digital team and its liquid crypto strategies — previously managed by CoinFund — under one structure aimed at institutional investors, the firm said Wednesday.

Former CoinFund executive Christopher Perkins will lead the division, with Seth Ginns serving as chief investment officer alongside Franklin Templeton digital assets executive Tony Pecore. The group will report to Sandy Kaul, the firm’s head of innovation.

The move builds on Franklin Templeton’s existing digital asset business, which manages about $1.8 billion, and signals a shift toward offering more active crypto investment strategies alongside its current products.

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“This is an exciting addition for Franklin Templeton,” CEO Jenny Johnson said, adding that the deal strengthens the firm’s ability to deliver dedicated crypto expertise to clients globally.

The launch of Franklin Crypto reflects a broader trend among large asset managers that are moving beyond passive exposure, such as exchange-traded funds, toward building in-house capabilities.

Perkins said the effort is aimed at meeting that demand. “Crypto’s institutional moment has arrived,” he said, pointing to growing interest from large investors seeking structured exposure to digital assets.

The transaction also includes an experimental element: part of the consideration will be paid using BENJI tokens, linked to Franklin Templeton’s on-chain U.S. Government Money Fund. The fund uses blockchain infrastructure to process transactions and record ownership.

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That approach suggests early steps toward conducting mergers and acquisitions using tokenized assets, with settlement occurring more directly on blockchain rails.

The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to approvals and other conditions. Financial terms were not disclosed.

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Avalanche (AVAX) gains 4% as index moves higher

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9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1968.28, up 1.0% (+20.29) since yesterday’s close.

Eighteen of 20 assets is trading higher.

9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

Leaders: AVAX (+4.0%) and HBAR (+3.6%).

Laggards: BCH (-2.1%) and BNB (+0.0%).

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The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

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Bitcoin Breaks 5-Month Losing Streak With $68K March Close: What’s Next?

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) closed March in green, ending the longest monthly losing streak since 2018. Data suggests that the coming months may prove to be profitable for BTC.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin ended March 2% higher, marking the first green monthly close in six months.

  • A similar streak in 2018/2019 led to an over 316% BTC price rebound over five months.

  • Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance at $70,000-$72,000, where key trend lines converge.

Past multi-month downtrends were followed by 300% price gains

Historical price data from CoinGlass confirms Bitcoin printed its first green monthly candle in six months, closing March 2% higher after five straight months of losses.

“This is a massive dose of hopium,” analyst Ash Crypto said in an X post on Wednesday.

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The analyst was referring to a possible shift in momentum, which might lead to a sustained recovery, as seen in previous cycles.

Related: Crypto Fear & Greed Index stuck on ‘extreme fear,’ but is there a silver lining?

The last time this happened was in 2018/2019 when BTC closed February 2019 in green, after six consecutive red months, as shown in the figure below.

This led to a reversal with over 300% returns the following five months, as Bitcoin recovered from the 2018 bear market.

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“Last time BTC dumped 6 months in a row, it pumped the following 5 months in a row that came after!” trader Satoshi Flipper said in a Wednesday post on X.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin monthly percentage returns. Source: CoinGlass

If history repeats itself, the reversal may continue in April, suggesting that BTC price may have bottomed at $60,000.

Bitcoin’s bullish monthly close is a ”catalyst for fresh inflows into early April,” Trader Caleb said, adding:

“April starts with momentum.”

Bitcoin has a well-established tendency for significant price swings in April.

Since 2013, April has been a green month for eight of the past 13 years, with average returns of about 12.2%

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However, Bitcoin also tends to move in the opposite direction to March in April, and this is true for nine out of the past 13 years. 

In recent years, Bitcoin dropped in April after closing March in green, three out of four times between 2021 and 2024. 

Therefore, while the end of past multi-month drawdowns suggests a rebound is due, data demonstrates that BTC price could also slide in April.

Watch these Bitcoin price levels next

Data from TradingView shows BTC price up 2.5% on the day to trade at $68,470 as the $69,000-$70,000 resistance remains in place.

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Analysts expect Bitcoin’s range-bound price action to continue for longer, with important price levels to look for in case of a breakout. 

These include the $70,000-$72,000 supply zone, coinciding with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 1w–1m cohort cost basis

This is also where investors acquired approximately 650,000 BTC, marking a potential point of sell pressure, according to the cost-basis distribution data from Glassnode.

Breaking above this level could see BTC/USD revisit the $76,000 range high and eventually the $80,000 psychological level.

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BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Zooming out, trader Sheldon Diedericks said Bitcoin could “push into resistance” at $83,000 on the monthly time frame, a key support level from April 2025. The 200-day EMA is also close to this area.

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: X/Sheldon Diedericks

On the downside, the 200-week EMA at $68,300 and the 200-week SMA at $59,400 remain key levels to watch. Below that, the next major level is Bitcoin’s realized price around $54,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s bear market bottom could be formed once BTC price drops toward or below its realized price.