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Why Everyone’s Talking About Robinhood Q4 2025 Earnings

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Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Performance

Robinhood’s Q4 2025 earnings report triggered a sharp market reaction, with the company’s stock falling roughly 8% after revenue came in below expectations.

Yet the most striking takeaway from the call was not the drop in crypto trading revenue, but the growing prominence of prediction markets and automation as pillars of the platform’s future strategy.

Robinhood Earnings Show Prediction Markets Overtaking Crypto as Key Growth Driver

Nearly one-third of analyst questions during the earnings call focused on prediction markets, reflecting how quickly the sector is moving from experimental feature to potential core business line.

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“30% of $HOOD Q&A (6 of 20 questions) concerned prediction markets, by far the #1 topic,” stated Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck.

According to Sigel, the attention reflects fast-paced growth across the industry, with volumes now above $10 billion per month (approximately $300–400 million per day), roughly comparable to the average daily US sports betting handle.

Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Performance
Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Performance. Source: TradingView

Revenue Miss and Crypto Slowdown

Robinhood reported Q4 net revenue of $1.28 billion, below expectations of about $1.35 billion. Transaction-based revenue and crypto trading also missed forecasts, with crypto revenue coming in at approximately $221 million versus expectations closer to $248 million.

Analysts see the market reaction as largely tied to high expectations and slowing growth in key metrics rather than structural weakness in the business.

Christian Bolu, senior analyst at Autonomous Research, described the results as disappointing on the surface but constructive in outlook.

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“I would say look at an expensive stock, and you know a topline miss is not helpful at all,” Bolu said, noting that some key metrics, including deposit growth, also slowed.

However, he emphasized that the longer-term outlook remains positive:

“The commentary from the management team is pretty constructive in terms of the pipeline for 2026 in terms of new business growth, and actually, transaction volumes have been very strong in January as well. So, the outlook here is actually pretty decent.”

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Prediction Markets Move to Center Stage

While crypto remains an important segment, analysts increasingly see prediction markets and event contracts becoming a larger share of the business over time.

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“Over time, we think things like event contracts and prediction markets will be a bigger part of the business than crypto,” Bolu added in the interview with Yahoo Finance.

The opportunity is substantial. Despite rising competition from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, Robinhood’s distribution advantage could prove decisive.

“The good thing about Robinhood is their value prop from a business perspective is the distribution,” Bolu said. “There aren’t many folks that can distribute or have the distribution that they do.”

Regulation Remains the Key Constraint

Even as interest grows, regulatory uncertainty remains the biggest barrier to expansion. Sigel highlighted that the issue was directly addressed during the earnings call.

“Binary yes/no contracts … can fit under CFTC event contract authority… But contracts with continuous or formula-based payouts tied to a single issuer’s financial performance could be treated as SEC ‘security-based swaps’ under Dodd-Frank.”

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However, the Van Eck executive acknowledged that the lack of clarity is slowing progress:

“There’s no formal framework clarifying that boundary yet, which is why management referenced needing ‘regulatory relief.’”

AI Automation Quietly Reshaping the Business

Beyond new trading products, Robinhood is also transforming its internal operations through automation and artificial intelligence. Against this backdrop, Sigel shared one of the most striking disclosures from the call:

“AI support is really cranking. Now over 75% of our cases are solved by AI, including the complex cases that previously required licensed brokerage professionals,” he shared.

The company is also automating its engineering workflow, optimizing the entire engineering pipeline from code writing through code review to deployment and testing.

Reportedly, this is already turning into real savings and efficiency gains, estimated at over $100 million in 2025 alone.

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These cost reductions could help offset cyclical revenue swings in areas like crypto and options trading.

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A More Diversified Robinhood

Analysts say Robinhood today looks very different from the trading app that rose to prominence during earlier crypto and meme-stock cycles.

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Bolu described the company as “a much more mature company a much more diversified company,” pointing to:

  • Growing net interest income
  • Retirement accounts
  • Banking products, and
  • Credit cards as additional revenue streams.

This diversification is one reason many analysts remain bullish despite short-term volatility. More than 80% of analysts still rate the stock a buy, according to market commentary following the results.

Robinhood’s latest earnings reinforced a key shift: crypto may no longer be the dominant narrative driving the platform.

Instead, the next phase of growth appears to be forming around prediction markets, options trading, subscriptions, and AI-driven efficiency. These segments could reduce reliance on highly cyclical crypto trading volumes.

If those trends continue, the earnings call may ultimately be remembered less for a revenue miss and more for revealing where the platform is heading next.

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Aims Recovery While USD/JPY Gives Back Recent Gains

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Aims Recovery While USD/JPY Gives Back Recent Gains

EUR/USD is recovering losses from 1.1450. USD/JPY is correcting gains from 160.50 and might decline further below 158.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

· The Euro struggled to stay in a positive zone and declined below 1.1600 before finding support.

· There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1575 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.

· USD/JPY rallied significantly before the bears appeared near 160.45.

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· There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 159.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from 1.1640. The Euro declined below 1.1600 and 1.1520 against the US Dollar.

The pair even declined below 1.1500 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1445 zone. A low was formed at 1.1443, and the pair is now recovering losses. There was a move above 1.1500 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The pair surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1639 swing high to the 1.1443 low. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 61.8% Fib retracement and 1.1575. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1575.

The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 1.1605. An upside break above 1.1605 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1640.

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If not, the pair might drop again. Immediate support is near 1.1520. The next key area of interest might be 1.1480 or the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break below 1.1480, the pair could drop toward 1.1445. The main target for the bears on the EUR/USD chart could be 1.1400, below which the pair could start a major decline.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 160.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below 159.50 against the Japanese Yen.

The pair even settled below 159.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed at 158.44, and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the downside, the first major support is near 158.45.

The next key region for the bulls might be 158.00. If there is a close below 158.00, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward 156.80. Any more losses might send the pair toward 155.00.

Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.46 swing high to the 158.44 low at 158.90.

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If there is a close above 158.90 and the hourly RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 159.20. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 159.20. The next major barrier for the bulls could be near the 50% Fib retracement level at 159.45, above which the pair could test 160.00 in the coming days.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

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Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

Wall Street asset management giant Franklin Templeton is launching a dedicated cryptocurrency division as it deepens its push into digital assets, anchored by a planned acquisition of crypto investment firm 250 Digital.

The new unit, called Franklin Crypto, will bring together the 250 Digital team and its liquid crypto strategies — previously managed by CoinFund — under one structure aimed at institutional investors, the firm said Wednesday.

Former CoinFund executive Christopher Perkins will lead the division, with Seth Ginns serving as chief investment officer alongside Franklin Templeton digital assets executive Tony Pecore. The group will report to Sandy Kaul, the firm’s head of innovation.

The move builds on Franklin Templeton’s existing digital asset business, which manages about $1.8 billion, and signals a shift toward offering more active crypto investment strategies alongside its current products.

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“This is an exciting addition for Franklin Templeton,” CEO Jenny Johnson said, adding that the deal strengthens the firm’s ability to deliver dedicated crypto expertise to clients globally.

The launch of Franklin Crypto reflects a broader trend among large asset managers that are moving beyond passive exposure, such as exchange-traded funds, toward building in-house capabilities.

Perkins said the effort is aimed at meeting that demand. “Crypto’s institutional moment has arrived,” he said, pointing to growing interest from large investors seeking structured exposure to digital assets.

The transaction also includes an experimental element: part of the consideration will be paid using BENJI tokens, linked to Franklin Templeton’s on-chain U.S. Government Money Fund. The fund uses blockchain infrastructure to process transactions and record ownership.

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That approach suggests early steps toward conducting mergers and acquisitions using tokenized assets, with settlement occurring more directly on blockchain rails.

The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to approvals and other conditions. Financial terms were not disclosed.

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Avalanche (AVAX) gains 4% as index moves higher

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9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1968.28, up 1.0% (+20.29) since yesterday’s close.

Eighteen of 20 assets is trading higher.

9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

Leaders: AVAX (+4.0%) and HBAR (+3.6%).

Laggards: BCH (-2.1%) and BNB (+0.0%).

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The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

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Bitcoin Breaks 5-Month Losing Streak With $68K March Close: What’s Next?

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) closed March in green, ending the longest monthly losing streak since 2018. Data suggests that the coming months may prove to be profitable for BTC.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin ended March 2% higher, marking the first green monthly close in six months.

  • A similar streak in 2018/2019 led to an over 316% BTC price rebound over five months.

  • Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance at $70,000-$72,000, where key trend lines converge.

Past multi-month downtrends were followed by 300% price gains

Historical price data from CoinGlass confirms Bitcoin printed its first green monthly candle in six months, closing March 2% higher after five straight months of losses.

“This is a massive dose of hopium,” analyst Ash Crypto said in an X post on Wednesday.

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The analyst was referring to a possible shift in momentum, which might lead to a sustained recovery, as seen in previous cycles.

Related: Crypto Fear & Greed Index stuck on ‘extreme fear,’ but is there a silver lining?

The last time this happened was in 2018/2019 when BTC closed February 2019 in green, after six consecutive red months, as shown in the figure below.

This led to a reversal with over 300% returns the following five months, as Bitcoin recovered from the 2018 bear market.

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“Last time BTC dumped 6 months in a row, it pumped the following 5 months in a row that came after!” trader Satoshi Flipper said in a Wednesday post on X.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin monthly percentage returns. Source: CoinGlass

If history repeats itself, the reversal may continue in April, suggesting that BTC price may have bottomed at $60,000.

Bitcoin’s bullish monthly close is a ”catalyst for fresh inflows into early April,” Trader Caleb said, adding:

“April starts with momentum.”

Bitcoin has a well-established tendency for significant price swings in April.

Since 2013, April has been a green month for eight of the past 13 years, with average returns of about 12.2%

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However, Bitcoin also tends to move in the opposite direction to March in April, and this is true for nine out of the past 13 years. 

In recent years, Bitcoin dropped in April after closing March in green, three out of four times between 2021 and 2024. 

Therefore, while the end of past multi-month drawdowns suggests a rebound is due, data demonstrates that BTC price could also slide in April.

Watch these Bitcoin price levels next

Data from TradingView shows BTC price up 2.5% on the day to trade at $68,470 as the $69,000-$70,000 resistance remains in place.

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Analysts expect Bitcoin’s range-bound price action to continue for longer, with important price levels to look for in case of a breakout. 

These include the $70,000-$72,000 supply zone, coinciding with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 1w–1m cohort cost basis

This is also where investors acquired approximately 650,000 BTC, marking a potential point of sell pressure, according to the cost-basis distribution data from Glassnode.

Breaking above this level could see BTC/USD revisit the $76,000 range high and eventually the $80,000 psychological level.

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BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Zooming out, trader Sheldon Diedericks said Bitcoin could “push into resistance” at $83,000 on the monthly time frame, a key support level from April 2025. The 200-day EMA is also close to this area.

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: X/Sheldon Diedericks

On the downside, the 200-week EMA at $68,300 and the 200-week SMA at $59,400 remain key levels to watch. Below that, the next major level is Bitcoin’s realized price around $54,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s bear market bottom could be formed once BTC price drops toward or below its realized price.