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Bitcoin’s 4-Year Trend Points to $76K; Analysts Say Price Still Intact

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin’s price action is looking increasingly like it has followed the blueprint of prior market cycles, according to new technical research circulating this week. One analyst argues BTC is “compressed” below a longer-term adoption structure, while another set of estimates suggests the current bear-market leg may be only partly finished—and could face renewed pressure around August if key monthly levels fail.

Together, the commentary points to a market that may not be “broken,” but is still working through historical patterns that have often dictated the next directional shift for BTC over multi-month horizons.

Key takeaways

  • Analyst David Eng says Bitcoin remains cyclical, tracking both a 400-day clock and a longer four-year “adoption structure” trend line.
  • Eng’s framework places a four-year fair-value target near $76,400, implying BTC is trading below that level and therefore “compressed.”
  • Rekt Capital estimates the ongoing bear market is about 71% complete, based on historical analogs.
  • Rekt Capital is watching the 50-month EMA near $63,900; a monthly close around $62,000 would be treated as a possible breakdown signal.
  • If July improves but fails to hold, Rekt Capital warns August could negate any upside and bring further downside continuation.

Two-cycle timing: “not broken,” but compressed

In a Wednesday post on X, analyst David Eng described Bitcoin’s behavior as running on “two clocks.” The shorter cycle, he said, is linked to a 400-day simple moving average (SMA), while the longer cycle filters out “noise” and highlights a structure tied to adoption over multi-year periods.

Eng pointed to the 400-day SMA as a recurring support level during previous bull markets, noting that this cycle has not seen daily candle closes below the average, echoing how prior runs behaved. On the four-year time frame, he argued a cleaner uptrend becomes visible, with price shifting above and below the trend line depending on where the market is in its cycle.

The practical takeaway from Eng’s thesis is that Bitcoin repeatedly stretches away from the longer-term adoption structure and then reverts toward it—rather than moving in a straight line. In his view, that means the current conditions reflect compression beneath the structure instead of a structural failure.

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Eng also calculated that the four-year trend line currently implies a “fair price” around $76,400. He framed BTC as undervalued by roughly 20% relative to that estimate. In addition, Eng referenced Bitcoin’s Power Law trajectory, suggesting it is now entering territory approaching $135,000—an observation he used to reinforce the idea that the broader cycle framework remains intact.

“It is compressed below its adoption structure.”

When monthly closes matter: the 50-month EMA test

While Eng focused on longer-horizon cycle structure, another analyst—Rekt Capital—has been looking at how bear-market history typically evolves after key moving averages are challenged. In his latest commentary, Rekt Capital put the current downtrend at around 71% complete, referencing his own historical comparison work.

A central part of that monitoring centers on Bitcoin’s 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), which he described as currently sitting near $63,900. For traders, the distinction between an intramonth move and a confirmed monthly close is important: Rekt Capital’s scenario depends on what the market does at the month’s end.

He suggested that if the June monthly close resembles a trade around $62,000, it would “confirm the breakdown” from the 50-month EMA. In his framing, a subsequent month that turns positive could then potentially convert the 50-month average into new resistance—turning a former support reference into a ceiling.

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“August would cancel out July and send Bitcoin into downside continuation.”

Why a “compressed” market can still signal tension

Eng’s “compressed” characterization and Rekt Capital’s caution about possible continuation are not necessarily contradictory. Eng’s framework emphasizes that Bitcoin can remain cyclical even when it is trading below a longer-term adoption structure; the compression can persist as the market works through transitional phases of the cycle. Rekt Capital, meanwhile, is concerned with the near-to-medium-term path that often determines whether a bear market grinds lower before eventually bottoming.

That overlap matters for investors because it highlights two different risk windows. In Eng’s view, BTC is still reverting toward the longer-term framework; in Rekt Capital’s view, the next steps depend on whether the market successfully holds key moving-average terrain—particularly around the 50-month EMA region.

For traders, this creates a practical monitoring checklist: not just where BTC trades intraday, but whether monthly closes confirm or negate moving-average breakdown narratives. If the market does not follow through on a breakdown, the downside thesis weakens; if it does, historical patterns may reassert themselves on the timeline Rekt Capital laid out.

What to watch next

The key near-term variable is how BTC behaves around the cited monthly level dynamics—especially whether June’s end-of-month close confirms weakness relative to the 50-month EMA, and whether any July strength can persist or gets reversed in the way Rekt Capital expects for August. Beyond that, Eng’s longer-cycle “fair value” reference around $76,400 may become a useful benchmark for assessing whether compression is merely a pause or the start of a broader repricing.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Binance Makes a New Push to Secure EU Approval

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The world’s largest crypto exchange has recently faced significant regulatory challenges that could ultimately force it to stop serving clients in the European Union.

Earlier this month, Reuters reported that the company’s application through Greece’s Hellenic Capital Market Commission (HCMC) is expected to fall short: a development that may strip Binance of the license it needs to stay in the bloc after the June 30 deadline.

The firm assured that it remains fully committed to securing the necessary MiCA approval. Speaking on the matter was CEO Richard Teng, who said:

“Binance is dedicated to Europe. We are committed to our European users and to operating under a clear, fair, and harmonized MiCA framework. We are dedicated to securing our MiCA license and remain ready to operate under a fair, predictable, and genuinely harmonized European framework. We will continue to keep users updated as we make progress.”

Just recently, Reuters revealed that the exchange will make a fresh push for permission to operate in the EU. Gillian Lynch, Binance’s head of Europe and the ​United Kingdom, reportedly said that the firm “may just have a different pathway to being authorized,” adding that “if it is not Greece, I’m looking at other alternatives.”

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According to the media, Binance has already held talks with regulators in Ireland, Latvia, and Greece but has been rejected in all three nations due to concerns such as the company’s past penalties for money laundering and its complex international structure.

Lynch said the exchange had contacted several regulators in the European Union but made only one application, to Greece. She is unaware why the Greek authorities refused approval, arguing that Binance has no outstanding issues related to the filing.

The post Binance Makes a New Push to Secure EU Approval appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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KuCoin Pay expands crypto payments across Bangladesh, Mexico, Zambia

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KuCoin Pay expands crypto payments across Bangladesh, Mexico, Zambia
  • KuCoin Pay expands crypto payments to Bangladesh, Mexico, and Zambia.
  • Platform links stablecoins with local banks and mobile money rails.
  • KuCoin targets real-world crypto use in high-growth emerging markets.

KuCoin Pay, the cryptocurrency payment platform developed by KuCoin, has expanded its transfer-based payment capabilities across Bangladesh, Mexico, and Zambia.

The move aims to connect digital assets with widely used local payment systems in high-growth markets.

The rollout integrates cryptocurrencies and stablecoins with established banking and payment networks across the three markets.

These include the bKash and Nagad mobile payment platforms in Bangladesh, SPEI-compatible bank transfer routes in Mexico, and mobile money services offered by MTN Group and Airtel Africa in Zambia.

The expansion reflects the growing role of local bank transfers and mobile money services in emerging economies, where consumers increasingly rely on these systems for salary payments, remittances, merchant transactions, and peer-to-peer transfers.

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Integration with local financial infrastructure

KuCoin Pay said its platform is designed to integrate digital assets with familiar financial systems, reducing the complexity often associated with moving cryptocurrencies into everyday financial activity.

The company noted that its technology supports localized payment routing through deep integration with local banking and payment rails.

Rather than requiring users to navigate complex backend processes, the platform identifies appropriate payment routes through a unified technical interface.

According to the company, this approach allows digital asset transactions to function more like traditional e-wallets, mobile money services, or local bank transfer tools.

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By connecting cryptocurrencies and stablecoins with existing financial infrastructure, KuCoin Pay aims to make digital assets more practical for real-world use cases while reducing friction and simplifying the transfer process.

Focus on practical crypto applications

KuCoin executives said payments represent one of the most important pathways for digital assets to gain broader utility within the real economy.

“Crypto is emerging as a new asset class with growing relevance in the real economy, and payments are one of the most important ways for this value to reach users,” said Alicia Kao, Managing Director of KuCoin.

“Through KuCoin Pay, we are building trusted and localized connections between digital assets and existing banking, mobile money and transfer rails. By integrating crypto with the financial systems people already use, we are helping digital assets move beyond holding and trading into practical financial activity, while supporting more inclusive and future-ready financial ecosystems in high-growth markets.”

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The company said the expansion is intended to improve accessibility to digital assets by enabling users to interact with cryptocurrencies through payment systems they already use in their daily lives.

Further expansion planned

Looking ahead, KuCoin Pay said it plans to continue expanding compatibility with local banking and payment systems in additional markets.

The company also intends to improve technical response speeds and broaden practical cryptocurrency payment applications across supported regions worldwide.

The latest expansion underscores a broader industry trend toward integrating digital assets with existing financial infrastructure, particularly in emerging markets where mobile money and local transfer networks play an increasingly central role in everyday commerce and financial inclusion.

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Dormant Wallet Tied to HashFlare Fraud Moves 10,600 ETH Worth $18.5M

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Dormant Wallet Tied to HashFlare Fraud Moves 10,600 ETH Worth $18.5M


An Ethereum address linked to the HashFlare cloud-mining fraud transferred 10,600 ETH worth about $18.5 million on Monday morning after sitting idle for roughly three and a half years. Blockchain investigator ZachXBT flagged the movement, the first activity tied to the address since the… Read the full story at The Defiant

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CZ, Binance founder, wants to clear up ‘misunderstandings’ about who he is

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CZ, Binance founder, wants to clear up 'misunderstandings' about who he is

“Binance.US has a CEO, Binance.com has two co-CEOs,” he said. “They almost never talk to each other. Actually, I don’t think they ever talk to each other. So, yes, two independent teams. Binance.US does license the product and technology from Binance Global, but they have a licensing agreement.”

CZ can’t see himself running the U.S. business, he said, adding that he did not think he was the best candidate to run a U.S. platform. “It needs to be somebody local; it needs to be somebody who’s on the ground,” he said.

The other companies CZ is heavily invested in — Giggle Academy and YZi Labs — are similarly independent, he said.

This independence extends to CZ’s personal life, he said. Yi He, one of Binance’s co-CEOs, is CZ’s partner, and the two share a home in the United Arab Emirates. Despite this, CZ said they do not talk about Binance at home, and the two keep their respective work lives separate.

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“To be very frank, even when I was CEO of the company, she had a lot of strategic input into the company,” he said. “She was probably giving me more instructions even when I was CEO. So now, [after] stepping down, she’s running it. Our conversations at the max would be like ‘oh two days ago the bitcoin price dropped because of this policy,’ but we don’t even talk about that anymore.”

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CBOE Debuts Prediction Market with S&P 500 Contracts

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CBOE Debuts Prediction Market with S&P 500 Contracts

Market operator Cboe Global Markets has entered the prediction markets business with the launch of Cboe Predicts, a platform debuting with binary contracts tied to the S&P 500.

The contracts are now available through Interactive Brokers and are expected to launch at Charles Schwab and other retail brokerage platforms in the coming months, according to a Tuesday press release.

The contracts allow traders to take “yes” or “no” positions on whether the S&P 500 will close above or below a specified price level.

Cboe is the latest traditional finance firm to expand into prediction markets as investor interest in outcome-based contracts grows. The launch comes days after reports that Charles Schwab was seeking to enter the sector through a partnership with Cboe that would offer customers similar S&P 500-linked contracts.

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Contracts tied to the S&P 500’s daily closing price are already available on prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

Cboe launches XSP Binary Options in prediction markets offering. Source: Cboe

Traders seek more binary event contracts

Cboe’s customers are showing more demand for shorter-dated, outcome-based trading opportunities, which led to the debut of the prediction market offering, according to JJ Kinahan, head of retail expansion and alternative investment products at Cboe. 

Cboe’s new contracts are security options that will trade within the same regulatory framework as US-listed options, providing “institutional-grade liquidity” and transparency, Cboe said.

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Related: Kalshi adds India to growing list of restricted jurisdictions

Meanwhile, prediction market platforms have drawn increased regulatory scrutiny over political betting and sports-related event contracts.

Kentucky was the latest state to sue five prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of “operating unlicensed and illegal sports betting and gambling platforms,” as Cointelegraph reported on Thursday.

In January, US lawmakers proposed legislation aimed at restricting political prediction market trading by government officials after a Polymarket user netted over $400,000 on a contract related to the removal of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, fueling insider trading concerns.

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Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets? 

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Jaredfromsubway.eth, Ethereum's Most Active Sandwich Bot, Drained for $7.5M Over the Weekend

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Jaredfromsubway.eth, Ethereum's Most Active Sandwich Bot, Drained for $7.5M Over the Weekend


An attacker drained more than $7.5 million from jaredfromsubway.eth, the Ethereum address widely considered the single most-active sandwich-attack operator on the network, over the weekend. The loss is a rare public setback for an MEV bot that has run as one of Ethereum's largest priority-fee… Read the full story at The Defiant

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SecondFi Traces Cardano Wallet Exploit to Address-Level Issue

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SecondFi Traces Cardano Wallet Exploit to Address-Level Issue

A vulnerability in Cardano-based wallet SecondFi allowed attackers to drain user funds, resulting in major losses.

SecondFi on Wednesday confirmed it had identified the root cause of the exploit and is now engaging with Cardano ecosystem platforms and blockchain investigators to address the issue.

The company also said it triggered emergency measures that secured roughly 129 million ADA, which is being transferred to an independent third-party custodian and held for affected users pending verification.

The platform on Tuesday estimated that around 16 million ADA, or $2.4 million, was affected across 374 addresses.

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Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson said SecondFi is not an Input Output Global product and stressed that there is no ownership, control, or business relationship between the wallet and IOG.

SecondFi traces exploit to an address-level issue

SecondFi has not released a comprehensive post-mortem as of publication, but has issued multiple statements confirming a security breach caused by a vulnerability in its Cardano web wallet generation software.

It said the root cause of the incident was an issue at the address level that affects users when they sign transactions.

Source: SecondFi

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“SecondFi’s wallet software exposed the private keys it generated,” Mitchell Amador, CEO of security company Immunefi, told Cointelegraph.

Amador said that while the blockchain remained secure, the code that generates the keys is the “part nobody audits like a contract.” He added that attackers have increasingly shifted focus toward infrastructure that creates or stores crypto keys rather than blockchain protocols.

Related: AI models led to a ‘vulnerability apocalypse’ in crypto security: Immunefi CEO

“Recovery to another platform or wallet does not mitigate the risk,” SecondFi said, advising users not to restore their recovery phrases into new Cardano wallets. The guidance differed from recommendations by some community members, who urged users to migrate affected wallets and move funds to newly created addresses.

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“We didn’t write the code,” says Hoskinson

SecondFi is a self-custodial platform built on Cardano that rebranded from the Yoroi wallet in April 2026. Yoroi was developed by Emurgo, which describes itself as the “for-profit arm of Cardano,” and was launched as the first open-source light wallet for the Cardano blockchain.

Hoskinson said IOG’s incident response team has been in contact with SecondFi since Monday and that the platform requested an independent security audit.

Source: Charles Hoskinson

In a Tuesday video posted on X, Hoskinson stressed that IOG “is not Emurgo,” adding that the company has no influence over Emurgo and cannot speak on its behalf regarding the exploit.

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“We didn’t write the code and we’re not connected to it,” he said.

Magazine: Japanese pension fund tips 1% in crypto, G7 urges action on NK hackers: Asia Express

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DeFi lending giant Aave could reach $3,500 by 2030, Standard Chartered forecasts

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Inside the chaotic $300 million emergency bailout that saved a top crypto platform from total collapse

Kendrick compared Aave to an automated, blockchain-based bank that operates without employees or discretionary decision-making. At its peak in October 2025, the protocol held roughly $75 billion in deposits, a level the analyst said would have ranked it among the 30 largest banks in the U.S.

Looking ahead, Kendrick expects the value of tokenized assets actively used within DeFi applications to increase 37-fold by the end of the decade. Because Aave’s revenue model is tied closely to lending activity and deposits, the bank anticipates the protocol’s growth to translate relatively directly into gains for the AAVE token.

The report also pointed to the potential restart of Aave’s token buyback program as a further catalyst. The protocol’s Horizon initiative, which is designed to support lending against tokenized real-world assets in a permissioned environment, could help attract traditional financial institutions and accelerate adoption.

Despite recent market weakness across digital assets, the broader backdrop for crypto prices is improving and Aave is expected to be among the beneficiaries as capital returns to DeFi, the report added.

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Aave was 5.6% higher over the last 24 hours, trading around $76.

Read more: DeFi shaken by $292 million hack, but showing resilience, Standard Chartered says

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MSTR’s Strategy Play Could Risk an 80% Drop, Warning of a Dot-Com Pattern

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Crypto Breaking News

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) is drawing renewed attention from both technical traders and investors as two pressures converge: a bearish chart setup on the company’s stock and a widening strain on its cash position tied to preferred-share dividends.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno, Strategy’s U.S. dollar cash reserve has been shrinking while its preferred-stock dividend obligations have risen sharply, raising the likelihood of continued funding through additional share issuance—an outcome that can dilute common shareholders.

Key takeaways

  • MSTR’s monthly chart is showing a potential head-and-shoulders pattern, with a breakdown risk cited around the $100–$105 neckline area.
  • CryptoQuant data cited by Julio Moreno points to a faster decline in preferred-dividend coverage, now estimated at roughly 14 months.
  • Strategy’s preferred shares (Stretch/STRC) have traded below their $100 par value, with an effective yield reported above the stated dividend rate.
  • Funding preferred dividends and maintaining Bitcoin purchases may force Strategy into choices that could weigh on MSTR through dilution or reduced buying.

MSTR’s monthly head-and-shoulders setup revives downside debate

Late June market readings indicated that MSTR’s monthly price action was aligning with a head-and-shoulders (H&S) configuration. In classic technical analysis, an H&S pattern forms when price builds three peaks—two “shoulders” and a taller “head”—with a neckline connecting the key pullback lows between them.

The bearish case strengthens if the stock breaks down below the neckline, since the pattern often resolves by falling roughly the maximum vertical distance between the head and the neckline. In this instance, the potential line in the sand is described around $100–$105. A decisive monthly move below that zone would be consistent with the breakdown scenario.

The article’s technical framing also highlights a measured move that could extend the downside substantially. The cited target around $20 implies a decline on the order of 80% from current levels, contingent on how the pattern completes.

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That magnitude is part of why the comparison is being made to Strategy’s dot-com-era comparison. The source notes that the company’s earlier stock collapse during the dot-com bubble burst followed a similar neckline break, eventually driving a decline exceeding 99% from a prior peak over roughly two years.

Cash reserve shrink and rising dividends raise dilution risk

Beyond the chart, Strategy’s capital structure is under scrutiny. CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno argued that MSTR faces increasing dilution risk as Strategy’s cash reserves compress and dividend commitments grow.

Moreno’s figures, cited as of June, indicate that Strategy’s U.S. dollar cash reserve had fallen 38% since the start of 2026. Over the same period, its yearly dividend obligations were described as having nearly quadrupled to about $1.2 billion.

The core mechanism involves Strategy using cash to service preferred-stock dividends, primarily tied to Stretch (STRC). Moreno further stated that STRC preferred-dividend coverage has slipped to roughly 14 months, down from more than seven years. In practical terms, that implies Strategy has cash to cover just over a year’s worth of those dividend payments, assuming no additional major changes.

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This coverage pressure appears in STRC’s market pricing. The source reports STRC traded down to a record low of $82.50 last week and has since largely remained in the $82–$89 range, well below its $100 par value.

As STRC trades beneath par while investors anticipate dividend-related risk, the effective yield has widened. The article states STRC’s effective yield moved above 13%, versus a stated dividend rate of about 11.5%. That spread reflects compensation demanded by the market for holding a security now perceived as more likely to require future adjustments in funding.

“At current dividend obligations of $1.2 billion per year, restoring 24 months of coverage would require a cash reserve of approximately $2.8 billion, roughly twice what Strategy holds today,” Moreno said. “A higher cash reserve is the most direct signal the market needs to regain confidence in STRC.”

How Strategy’s funding choices could affect MSTR common shareholders

Strategy’s broader Bitcoin thesis remains central to how investors interpret these developments, because the firm holds a large BTC balance acquired at much higher reported averages than the spot price level referenced in the source. The article states Strategy holds 847,363 BTC, with an average acquisition cost around $75,650 per coin, compared with a BTC price of roughly $62,600 at the time of writing.

In downturns, selling Bitcoin to generate cash can conflict with a long-running accumulation narrative—especially if sales “lock in” losses. Instead of liquidating BTC, the source argues that Strategy has been leaning into alternative levers: raising STRC’s dividend rate and issuing additional MSTR common shares to raise cash.

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To illustrate that approach, the article points to an SEC filing. It states Strategy sold 2.71 million MSTR common shares for about $335.5 million in June, while using only about $34.9 million of those proceeds to buy 520 BTC. The remaining cash would therefore be available to support dividend and other obligations rather than increasing the Bitcoin position.

That funding structure helps explain the dilution concern: raising equity to preserve Bitcoin holdings may keep BTC exposure largely intact, but it can increase the number of shares outstanding. For existing MSTR common shareholders, that means the path to maintaining the Bitcoin strategy may come with a built-in equity dilution tradeoff.

What to watch next for the stock and preferred dividends

As long as STRC stays below $100 and coverage remains tight, the market may continue to treat dividend funding as an active risk rather than a settled commitment. The article suggests that Strategy could respond by continuing common-share issuance, slowing Bitcoin purchases, or seeking ways to rebuild cash reserves—each of which could amplify pressure on MSTR if the market interprets it as weakening the common equity’s risk profile.

Traders and long-term investors will likely focus on whether MSTR confirms a monthly breakdown beneath the $100–$105 neckline zone, and whether CryptoQuant’s coverage metrics stabilize—particularly if STRC trading begins to reflect improved confidence in dividend durability.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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ENS DAO Opens Temp Check on Handing Treasury and Day-to-Day Authority to ENS Foundation

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ENS DAO Opens Temp Check on Handing Treasury and Day-to-Day Authority to ENS Foundation


The ENS DAO opened a temp-check proposal Friday that would shift treasury control, grants administration and long-term capital strategy to an expanded ENS Foundation. Tokenholders would keep protocol-layer authority and the power to remove directors. Katherine Wu, an ENS Foundation board member… Read the full story at The Defiant

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