Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $58,000 has pushed the price into a zone that long-term power-law models have historically associated with cycle bottoms. The data does not confirm a bottom range, though it shows BTC trading in a price range that has repeatedly marked major lows since 2014. 

Derivatives data and liquidation levels highlight $55,000 as the next key support level and the $65,000-$68,000 range as the next major upside area of interest. 

Bitcoin power-law puts $58,000 in historical range

Giovanni’s Bitcoin power-law model places the network’s long-term trend price near $135,000, making the recent drop to $58,000 roughly 54% below the all-time high and 1.22 standard deviations beneath that trend.

According to the analyst, the key takeaway is straightforward: the previous cycle lows in 2012, 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022 all fell within a similar statistical range. By that measure, the latest decline falls within a territory that has historically marked the deep bear-market lows rather than a break in Bitcoin’s long-term growth path.

Bitcoin price deviation based on the power-law trend. Source: X

The model estimates the commonly referenced “-1σ” support near $68,000, while the stronger historical floor sits closer to $55,000. Giovanni also noted that Bitcoin would need to trade below roughly $17,000 for more than a year before the power-law itself could be considered invalid.

A second metric points in the same direction. Bitcoin’s power-law quantile has fallen to 6.2%, indicating the asset is cheaper than roughly 94% of its historical observations when measured against the power-law model. The chart highlights similar readings during the 2015, 2020, and 2023 cycle lows, with the current market now revisiting that historically rare valuation zone.

Bitcoin power-law quantile regression chart. Source: Checkonchain

Related: Bitcoin drops to $58K on high US PCE inflation as trader sees ‘manipulation’

Key BTC price levels to watch

Bitcoin fell to a new yearly low of $58,000 after aggressive selling swept through Binance. The hourly taker sell volume reached $2.1 billion, followed by another $1.9 billion in the next hour after the New York market open, marking the exchange’s largest hourly sell pressure since May 4.

Bitcoin taker sell volume on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

The flush liquidated more than $300 million in long BTC positions before the price rebounded toward $60,000. That level now carries added significance. A daily close back above $60,000 preserves the developing relative-strength index (RSI) bullish divergence across the one-hour, four-hour, and daily time frames which signals that selling momentum is fading even as the price prints lower lows.

BTC/USDT, one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Futures trader Byzantine General shared a similar outlook, saying the move to $58,000 cleared out leveraged longs while drawing in fresh short sellers. In his view, a daily close above $60,000 would strengthen the case that Bitcoin has printed a local bottom for now. 

That would also shift attention toward a large pocket of upside liquidity. More than $4 billion in short liquidations cluster near $65,000, compared with about $1 billion below $55,000, creating a four-to-one imbalance. A relief rally could then target internal liquidity near $68,000, where a daily fair-value gap adds another area of interest for traders. 

BTC liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

Meanwhile, a daily close below $60,000 reinforces the bearish bias on both the short-term and long-term charts. The next area of interest then shifts to $55,000, where Bitcoin’s September 2024 weekly range low converges with its realized price near $54,000. 

The realized price, which tracks the average cost basis of all onchain coins, has historically provided support at every major Bitcoin bear-market bottom since 2014. That trend makes the $54,000-$55,000 region a key level for traders to watch if selling pressure continues. 

Bitcoin’s realized price. Source: X

Related: Bitcoin drop to $58K brings out bears: Is BTC’s next stop below $50K?

XRP has fallen to its lowest level in months after a sharp selloff driven by a major derivatives flush and fresh pressure across the crypto market, while technical charts now show the token testing the lower boundary of a long-term falling wedge.

According to data from crypto.news price, XRP (XRP) price dropped from around $1.07 on June 25 to $1.01 on June 26, extending its year-to-date decline to more than 40%. The decline accelerated as a $10.8 billion crypto options expiry triggered heavy volatility across digital assets and forced a wave of long liquidations.

At the same time, sentiment surrounding the XRP ecosystem weakened after decentralized finance protocol Strobe Finance abruptly announced it would shut down operations.

The selling pressure arrived as investors also reduced exposure to risk assets following stronger expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. Bitcoin’s slide below the $60,000 level removed another layer of support for altcoins, leaving XRP among the weaker large-cap tokens during Thursday’s session.

XRP approaches long-term support as liquidation clusters build overhead

The daily chart shows XRP trading at the lower edge of a falling wedge that has contained price action for almost a year. The pattern has compressed between descending resistance and gradually declining support, with the token now sitting close to the wedge’s lower boundary near $1.00.

Momentum indicators remain weak. The MACD has stayed below its signal line with histogram bars still in negative territory, while the Aroon indicator continues to favor sellers after Aroon Down climbed back toward 100 and Aroon Up remained subdued. Together, the indicators suggest bears still control the short-term trend even as XRP price approaches a historically important support zone.

The four-hour chart presents another important technical level. XRP has retraced almost the entire advance measured by the displayed Fibonacci range and now trades just above the 100% retracement near $1.01. Price also remains below the Supertrend resistance around $1.10, while the RSI has slipped to nearly 31, placing momentum close to oversold territory but without confirming a bullish reversal.

Derivatives positioning also highlights where volatility could increase next. CoinGlass liquidation heatmap data show large concentrations of leveraged positions clustered between roughly $1.05 and $1.08, while another sizable liquidity pocket sits around the $1.02 area. Those zones could attract price in either direction as traders compete for liquidity, increasing the likelihood of sharp short-term swings.

On-chain positioning has also drawn attention to nearby support. According to well-followed analyst Ali Martinez, UTXO Realized Price Distribution data identify $1.06 as a major accumulation level where more than 830 million XRP previously changed hands.

“XRP is testing a major volume block at $1.06…If the market drops below this level, the next core support targets are $0.80, $0.62 and $0.51.”

Bears retain control while lower demand zones come into focus

Several downside risks could still invalidate any recovery attempt. A sustained move below the wedge support around $1.00 would break one of XRP’s longest-running chart structures and could expose lower historical demand zones identified by both technical and on-chain data.

Commenting on the latest structure, crypto analyst ChartNerd noted that XRP has entered an area of interest after weeks of decline but warned that losing the current support would shift attention toward the $0.90-$0.70 range, where previous buying activity was concentrated.

Any recovery will also depend on conditions outside the XRP market. Additional institutional outflows from crypto investment products, another round of heavy derivatives liquidations, or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data that reinforce expectations for restrictive Federal Reserve policy could extend pressure across digital assets.

Conversely, reclaiming the $1.10 region and breaking above the falling wedge resistance would be the first technical signal that buyers are regaining control.

Tokenization platform Securitize says it expects to raise $400 million in its upcoming public debut through a merger with a company backed by Cantor Fitzgerald. 

Securitize said on Friday that its final redemption results showed less than 30% of shareholders in Cantor Equity Partners II (CEPT), the special purpose acquisition company that will take Securitize public, had elected to redeem.

The company said it expects to receive approximately $400 million in gross proceeds from the merger, including related private investment in public equity, or PIPE, financings and excluding transaction-related expenses.

Securitize is set to be the latest buzzy crypto-related public debut as Wall Street seeks exposure to tokenization, an area that is seeing heightened investor interest and attention from US regulators.

Shares in Cantor’s acquisition vehicle rose on Friday, closing the trading day up 7% to $10.86 and continuing to rise after-hours to $11.

CEPT shares climbed on Friday as Securitize announced fewer shareholder redemptions than expected. Source: Google Finance

The merger between Securitize and CEPT is expected to close on Wednesday, July 1, subject to shareholder approval on Monday and other closing conditions, and the company will then trade under the ticker SECZ on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, July 2.

“Reaching the public markets is a significant milestone for Securitize and a reflection of the growing momentum behind tokenization,” said Securitize co-founder and CEO Carlos Domingo.

Source: Carlos Domingo

“When we started more than eight years ago, the idea that major institutions would embrace tokenized securities was still largely theoretical,” Domingo added. “Today, tokenization is moving into the mainstream.”

Related: Franklin Templeton, BNP Paribas see tokenization boosting EU’s capital efficiency 

Securitize is backed by major institutions, such as BlackRock and Morgan Stanley, and crypto firms, including Coinbase and Circle, and has carved out a lead in the tokenization sector, where assets are represented on blockchains.

The company partnered with the New York Stock Exchange in March to create tokenized assets for the exchange’s upcoming tokenized securities platform,

Standard Chartered said earlier this month that it expects the amount of tokenized assets active in decentralized finance to grow 37-fold to $2.7 trillion by the end of 2030.

In mid-May, the US Securities and Exchange Commission was reportedly ready to allow trading of tokenized stocks, but delayed the plan later that month after stock exchange officials raised concerns over how it would be implemented.

Magazine: Bitcoin slides to $58K, XRP hits $1 but onchain data promising: Market Moves

Brad Garlinghouse has criticized Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin acquisition strategy, arguing that Strategy’s reliance on preferred stock financing has failed to create lasting value as its securities continue to weaken.

According to comments made during a CNBC interview on Friday, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse criticized Michael Saylor’s approach to financing Bitcoin purchases through Strategy’s capital markets program, saying long-term value in crypto should come from real-world utility rather than financial engineering.

Questioning whether the model can continue rewarding shareholders over time, Garlinghouse argued that issuing securities to fund additional Bitcoin purchases does not create sustainable value. He added that Strategy’s focus on financial structuring has had negative consequences for the digital asset market.

“Financial engineering does not drive long-term value … long-term value of any digital asset is going to be driven by utility.”

Although he challenged Strategy’s funding model, Garlinghouse maintained that he remains bullish on Bitcoin itself. His comments came as Bitcoin briefly traded below $60,000 on Friday, extending pressure across companies closely tied to the cryptocurrency.

Strategy’s preferred stock has come under pressure

Garlinghouse pointed to Strategy’s STRC preferred shares as evidence that investors are becoming more cautious about the company’s financing structure. He noted that the preferred stock has fallen roughly 25% below its $100 face value, describing the decline as a sign that investors are questioning the sustainability of the approach.

Strategy has spent roughly the past year raising capital through preferred securities, including STRC, to finance additional Bitcoin purchases. The instrument also carries an 11.5% cumulative annual dividend obligation, leaving the company with continuing dividend commitments alongside its expanding Bitcoin treasury.

At the same time, scrutiny has widened beyond Garlinghouse’s criticism. Earlier this week, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant recommended that Strategy pause further Bitcoin purchases and instead strengthen its cash reserves as market conditions remain difficult.

Additional pressure has emerged from legal developments. As crypto.news reported previously, Rosen Law Firm has opened an investigation into whether Strategy made materially inaccurate business disclosures to investors. According to the firm, it is evaluating potential securities claims and considering a possible class action lawsuit on behalf of shareholders who suffered losses.

Investor scrutiny has continued despite mixed market signals

Selling by company insiders has added another layer to investor concerns. SEC filings show Strategy director Jarrod Patten exercised options to acquire 1,500 Class A shares on June 23 before selling the entire position the same day at $106.08 per share, generating an estimated pre-tax gain of about $131,766.

The latest transaction extends a months-long selling streak. Regulatory filings indicate Patten has sold 55,750 Strategy shares over the past three months for roughly $9 million in proceeds, with the sales taking place as investors continue debating the company’s reliance on repeated share issuance and leveraged Bitcoin accumulation.

Even so, derivatives markets are not signaling expectations of an immediate company-specific crisis. According to new research from Anchorage Digital, traders continue paying elevated premiums for downside protection across Bitcoin, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Strategy shares, but options pricing remains well below levels seen during previous periods of severe stress.

Anchorage Digital’s head of research, David Lawant, wrote that while defensive positioning has risen into the upper range of historical readings, Strategy’s options market has not reached the conditions normally associated with forced deleveraging or fears of a breakdown in the company’s business model.

A conditional national trust bank charter, a pending Federal Reserve master account, and a string of acquisitions in brokerage, payments, and treasury. Ripple is assembling a full regulated-finance stack. The benefits flow first to its stablecoin and the company itself. What is left for XRP is the question.

Ripple is turning itself into a bank, or something very close to one, and it is doing it methodically.

Over the past year the company won conditional federal approval to operate a national trust bank, applied for a Federal Reserve master account that would give it direct access to the central bank’s payment systems, and bought its way into prime brokerage, payments, and corporate treasury services through a series of acquisitions.

Add the dollar stablecoin it already issues, the 70-plus regulatory licenses it holds around the world, and a fresh European license that lets it passport services across 30 countries, and the picture is unmistakable.

A company once known mainly for a cross-border payments network and a controversial token is assembling the full apparatus of a regulated financial institution.

UC Berkeley professor and Oasis Labs founder Dawn Song has joined Meta Superintelligence Labs as vice president of AI research. 

She said she will help lead Meta’s AI safety and AI security efforts. Song announced the move in a post on X. She said several members of the Virtue AI team will also join Meta. Axios also reported that Virtue AI co-founders Bo Li and Sanmi Koyejo are among the hires.

Song said her work at Meta will focus on frontier AI models and agentic AI systems. She wrote that AI must be “secure, trustworthy, and beneficial” if it is to reach its full use.

The move gives Meta more senior talent in AI security. It also brings a well-known blockchain privacy researcher into one of the world’s largest AI labs.

Virtue AI team moves to MSL

Virtue AI was founded in 2024 to build tools for trustworthy AI. Song said the team worked on AI security, agent security, benchmarks and open platforms before the Meta move.

According to Axios, Meta is hiring several Virtue AI leaders and team members. The report said the group worked on automated red teaming, runtime guardrails and AI governance.

Meta’s interest comes as AI labs put more attention on agent safety. AI agents can take actions, use tools and handle tasks across software systems. That makes security more important because errors or misuse can spread across real products.

As previously reported, Meta has been building a superintelligence AI team after its large Scale AI deal. The company wants to improve its AI models and ship them across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and other products.

Oasis background adds crypto angle

Song is also known in crypto as the founder of Oasis Labs. The company raised $45m in 2018 to build privacy-first cloud computing on blockchain. Its backers included a16zcrypto, Accel and Binance Labs.

The Oasis project later became tied to the Oasis Network and the ROSE token. The network focuses on confidential computing, data privacy and privacy-preserving applications.

In a previous article, crypto.news discussed Oasis Protocol’s verifiable AI agents for crypto trading. The project used trusted execution environments to keep strategies private while giving users proof of how agents behave.

Previously, crypto.news explored Oasis-based AI and data services through Pontus-X, a platform built around privacy and data control. Song’s Meta role connects that same privacy and security theme to a much larger AI platform.

ROSE remains near record lows

The hiring news has not changed ROSE’s weak market setup. Oasis traded near $0.0059 on June 26, close to its intraday low. That is about 99% below its all-time high near $0.596.

ROSE has also struggled with the broader crypto market selloff. Its market value remains far below peak-cycle levels, even as AI and privacy remain active themes in the sector.

The move is still notable for the Oasis community because Song helped shape the project’s early research identity. Her work linked blockchain, privacy and security before AI safety became a major mainstream topic.

For Meta, the hire adds academic and startup experience to its AI safety push. For crypto, it shows how privacy and security talent from blockchain continues to move into frontier AI.

Long-dormant Ethereum (ETH) wallets dating back nearly eight years have begun moving funds again, according to on-chain monitoring shared by multiple crypto analytics sources. The activity has reintroduced additional ETH supply into the visible flow, coinciding with Ether trading slightly above the $1,500 mark. While some of these addresses have taken profits, other large holders appear to be continuing accumulation, resulting in a mixed ledger picture.

At the same time, analysts say long-term whale profitability has deteriorated across major ETH holder cohorts. This matters for compliance and institutional risk assessment because persistent unrealized losses can influence large-holder behavior, custody-related transfers, and the pace at which liquidity is redeployed across venues—factors that institutions often track when managing exposure and counterparty risk.

Key takeaways

• On-chain trackers reported activation of ETH addresses last used in 2017, with one group of wallets moving a combined 37,602 ETH after years of dormancy.
• Separately, large investors appear to be rotating into ETH through swaps involving BTC, while others have continued withdrawals from major exchanges.
• Analysts state that unrealized profitability for major ETH whale cohorts has turned negative for the first time since 2019, based on reported unrealized profit ratios.
• Institutional custody-related movements were also noted, including transfers involving Coinbase Prime, without confirmation of a market sale.

Eight-year-old wallets reactivate, bringing long-dated supply into motion

According to Lookonchain, four Ethereum wallets that collectively received 37,602 ETH nearly eight years ago—at an average price of about $830—became active after a prolonged period of dormancy. The same set of wallets reportedly held through multiple market cycles, including the 2021 and 2025 bull markets, when unrealized gains reached levels described as exceeding $150 million.

Lookonchain further reported that these wallets sold 33,623 ETH during Thursday’s activity at an estimated price near $1,560, with the realized profit now described as approximately $27.4 million. For compliance teams and market-structure monitoring, reactivation of long-dormant addresses can be a relevant signal: it may reflect liquidity management, tax or rebalancing actions, or simply opportunistic execution after extended inactivity—each with different implications for market integrity checks and risk controls.

Whales show mixed behavior: rotation into ETH alongside selective profit-taking

Beyond the reactivated wallet group, other large transactions were reported as continuing capital rotation into Ether. Lookonchain stated that one whale swapped 464 BTC, valued at about $27.6 million, for 17,750 ETH. Such cross-asset rotation can be meaningful in institutional workflows because it may affect spot liquidity dynamics and the timing of ETH supply relative to broader crypto market flows.

In a separate report, investor Chun Wang was described as acquiring 9,937 ETH and 147 wrapped Bitcoin. Lookonchain also cited recent behavior in which Wang withdrew nearly 87,000 ETH from Binance over the prior month, at an average purchase price reported as $1,749. Exchange withdrawals by large holders are often monitored for operational and counterparty risk reasons—particularly where trading activity, custody arrangements, or liquidity sourcing may change.

Institutional-related activity was also referenced. BlackRock was reported to have transferred 41,996 ETH and 4,577 BTC to Coinbase Prime. Movements to Prime are commonly associated with custody or operational management rather than an immediately confirmed spot sale. For regulated entities, the distinction matters: custody transfers can trigger reporting and monitoring workflows without implying directional market exposure.

Unrealized losses broaden across whale cohorts

Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that unrealized profit ratios for ETH whale cohorts—from 1,000 ETH up to more than 100,000 ETH—have turned negative. The analyst said this is the first time since 2019 that every major whale cohort is reported to be underwater on an unrealized basis.

While unrealized metrics are not guarantees of future behavior, they are frequently used by analysts as a proxy for risk posture and conviction. Darkfost added that when ETH prices test whale conviction historically, periods often align with long-term bottom zones. Even so, the current setup was framed as placing greater pressure on large holders in 2026, even as selective accumulation appears to persist.

For institutional compliance monitoring, this kind of broadening drawdown can be relevant when assessing the potential for forced selling, changes in collateralization behavior, or shifts in custody and transfer patterns—especially for firms with exposure to exchanges, OTC counterparties, or derivative counterparties whose operational decisions may be influenced by large-holder positioning.

ETH’s $1,500 area remains a focal point amid ongoing uncertainty

Separately from on-chain behavior, attention among market participants remains on Ether’s $1,500 level. The article sources cited that ETH fell to around $1,510 during Thursday’s sell-off, while not setting a new yearly low as Bitcoin moved to fresh 2026 lows.

Crypto trader Ardi characterized $1,500 as a key long-term support, arguing that daily closes below that region would undermine bullish assumptions formed since the 2022 bear market. Crypto investor Jelle similarly suggested that a sustained break could return ETH to a trading range last seen in early 2023, noting that the $1,500 zone has historically been defended during several major corrections since mid-2022.

Other participants pointed to the possibility of lower demand zones. Trader Cyclops identified a $1,070–$1,370 range as a potential accumulation area, describing it as a demand region established in early 2023. The same source noted that moving into that lower band would also mean ETH breaking below a multi-year ascending trendline—an outcome that could prolong uncertainty in market structure.

From a policy and risk perspective, the common theme is not price forecasting but the importance of clearly defined reference levels for institutional monitoring: support breaks can affect portfolio risk calculations, margin models, and liquidity planning. However, the unresolved question remains whether observed on-chain transfers reflect genuine distribution pressures or routine movements that do not necessarily translate into sustained sell-side flow.

Closing perspective

The reactivation of nearly eight-year-old ETH wallets, combined with reported negative unrealized profitability across major whale cohorts, underscores a market where long-dated holders are again participating in active liquidity. Watch for whether these movements translate into sustained net distribution or whether ongoing withdrawals and ETH-denominated swaps continue to offset the added supply. For compliance and institutional teams, tracking wallet reactivation, exchange withdrawal patterns, and custody-related transfers alongside regulatory monitoring frameworks remains a practical approach as crypto markets evolve.