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Extreme Fear Returns to Crypto: What Investors Should Know

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Extreme Fear in Crypto Markets

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 5 on Thursday, signaling a sharp deterioration in market sentiment as digital asset prices continue to slide.

The decline reflects intensifying panic among investors, with risk appetite eroding amid broader global market uncertainty.

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Crypto Sentiment Sinks Deeper Into “Extreme Fear” 

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index measures the overall emotional state of the cryptocurrency market on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings between 0 and 24 indicate Extreme Fear, 25 to 49 signal Fear, 50 represents Neutral conditions, 51 to 74 reflect Greed, and 75 to 100 denote Extreme Greed.

At 5, the index places the market firmly in Extreme Fear territory. The latest drop comes amid a steady decline in sentiment over recent weeks. 

Extreme Fear in Crypto Markets
Extreme Fear in Crypto Markets. Source: Alternative.me

A month ago, the index stood at 26, already within the Fear range. It slid to 12 a week earlier and registered 11 just a day before reaching its current low. The rapid deterioration highlights how quickly confidence has unraveled as prices weakened.

The collapse in crypto sentiment coincides with a broader surge in global economic anxiety, as evidenced by the World Uncertainty Index. The index tracks how frequently the term “uncertainty” appears in Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. 

It covers more than 140 countries and provides a quarterly, cross-country indicator widely used in macroeconomic research and global risk analysis.

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In the third quarter of 2025, the World Uncertainty Index surged to an all-time high above 100,000. In the fourth quarter, it was recorded at 94,947. 

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Those levels are roughly double the peaks observed during previous major crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and the Eurozone debt crisis.

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“Rising geopolitical tensions, volatile markets, and policy uncertainty are driving the spike, as investors struggle to price in what comes next,” Coin Bureau wrote.

World Uncertainty Index
World Uncertainty Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

The elevated reading signals heightened anxiety across global markets as investors grapple with unpredictable economic and political conditions. Against this backdrop, the crypto market’s plunge into Extreme Fear reflects not only falling prices but also a broader retreat from risk assets worldwide.

Crypto Market Cap Falls 22% in 2026 as Bitcoin and Ethereum Extend Losses 

The collapse in sentiment comes as the broader crypto market continues to move downwards. In 2026, total market capitalization has fallen by more than 22%, reversing the optimism that defined the start of the year.

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Bitcoin, which began January on a stronger footing, ended the month down by more than 10%. It has dropped another 14.6% so far in February.

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Ethereum has also fallen 33.8% year to date. The sustained drawdown has weighed on market activity.

Analysts Weigh Crypto Market’s Next Move 

Amid these bear market conditions, the community remains uncertain about what comes next. Analyst Kyle Chassé pointed to historical precedents, noting that similarly depressed readings in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index were seen in 2018, March 2020, and in the aftermath of the FTX collapse in 2022.

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“Every time, it marked a massive opportunity window. No, it doesn’t guarantee the bottom. But historically, peak fear is where asymmetry lives,” he said.

Other analysts argue the current downturn could represent a shakeout phase before a potential breakout. Still, it remains unclear when, or if, a broader crypto market recovery will follow

Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, has forecasted that Bitcoin could trade sideways until summer 2026. He noted that the exact location of the Bitcoin bottom remains unclear and that current dynamics increasingly suggest the market has entered a protracted reassessment of risk.

Youssef pointed to several structural factors, including US political and monetary cycles, persistent inflation constraints, weakened retail capital flows, and cautious institutional demand following heavy losses.

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“As a result, we are unlikely to see a V-shaped reversal before the summer of 2026. More likely, we will see regular rebounds, triggered by short-covering and short squeezes,” he told BeInCrypto.

According to Youssef, such rebounds could be strong, ranging between 20% and 30%, and potentially prolonged. However, he warned they may ultimately prove to be bull traps. 

He stated that crypto traditionally remains in a long accumulation phase within a single range before the start of a true bull market.

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Crypto World

Banks push OCC to curb crypto trust charters until GENIUS rules clear

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Crypto Breaking News

The American Bankers Association is pressing the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to slow the wheel on national trust bank charters for crypto and stablecoin firms until key questions around the GENIUS Act, which would reshape U.S. stablecoin regulation, are settled. In a recent comment letter responding to the OCC’s notice of proposed rulemaking on national bank charters, the ABA warned that the sector’s regulatory picture remains fragmented across federal and state authorities. The trade group argued that advancing applications now could leave uninsured, digital-asset‑focused trusts exposed to unresolved safety, operational, and resolution issues, even as the industry connects customer assets to federally chartered platforms.

The ABA’s critique centers on the risk that a patchwork of oversight can create gaps for entities that manage crypto and stablecoins. The letter contends that until forthcoming GENIUS Act rulemakings lay out clear regulatory obligations, it would be prudent for the OCC to pause or slow down approvals. The GENIUS Act, which aims to streamline or redefine how digital assets fit into the U.S. banking framework, has not yet produced a settled regulatory map. Without that clarity, the ABA argues, banks seeking charters could face obligations that are not yet defined, complicating risk management and supervisory expectations for these new structures.

Beyond governance, the association underscored distinct safety and soundness concerns tied to uninsured, digital-asset‑focused national trusts. Chief among them are questions about how customer assets are segregated and protected, potential conflicts of interest, and the cyber safeguards necessary to withstand sophisticated threats. The letter points to the possibility that uninsured digital-asset trusts could be used to sidestep traditional registration and scrutiny by agencies such as the SEC or CFTC when activities would ordinarily trigger securities or derivatives regulation. The overarching worry is that these charters could become a back door to bypass comprehensive, integrated oversight.

The ABA’s stance comes as the OCC has recently moved to greenlight a path for several crypto firms to hold and manage customer digital assets under a federal charter while staying outside the deposit-taking and lending business. In December 2025, the OCC granted conditional national trust bank approvals to five notable players: Bitgo Bank & Trust, Fidelity Digital Assets, Ripple National Trust Bank, First National Digital Currency Bank, and Paxos Trust Company. This sequence—clear progress followed by calls for prudence—has amplified calls from industry observers and policymakers to align new models with robust regulatory guardrails.

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As the regulatory dialogue intensifies, the broader banking lobby has amplified its push for Congress to act. Proposals such as the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act have gained attention for attempting to curb the appeal of stablecoin rewards and other yield-bearing programs that could blur the line between traditional banking products and crypto offerings. At the same time, coverage of GENIUS Act proposals has underscored the tension between innovation and prudential supervision. The industry’s worry is that without a unified framework, chartered entities could be forced into a regulatory limbo where consumer protection and financial stability are not fully safeguarded.

While the ABA’s letter emphasizes caution, the OCC’s recent actions reflect a different facet of the ongoing balancing act: enabling regulated access to digital assets under a federal charter while attempting to avoid the full deposit-taking framework. The OCC’s stance has drawn support from some voices within the crypto sector who argue for clear, uniform standards that would prevent a fragmented patchwork of state-by-state approaches. The debate also intersects with ongoing discussions about how to treat banks and crypto similarly or differently, a point highlighted by industry and regulatory leaders alike. A separate OCC statement and related commentary have argued that there is no justification to treat banks and crypto differently; the underlying question remains how to translate those principles into enforceable, uniform rules across multiple agencies.

​Warning after new crypto trust charters

The timing of the ABA’s intervention is notable: it follows the OCC’s conditional approvals announced earlier in December 2025 that would allow these firms to hold and manage customer digital assets under a federal umbrella while remaining out of the deposit-taking and lending business. The OCC described these structures as national trusts designed to segregate digital assets and provide custody capabilities without converting to traditional banking operations. The five charter recipients—Bitgo Bank & Trust, Fidelity Digital Assets, Ripple National Trust Bank, First National Digital Currency Bank, and Paxos Trust Company—represent a cross-section of the market and reflect a broader appetite to experiment with federal oversight in the crypto custody space. The OCC’s action signals a potential pathway for regulated custody of digital assets, even as lawmakers and industry groups push for clarifying legislation and more precise supervisory expectations.

The push for governance clarity is not happening in a vacuum. Industry participants and lawmakers alike have been weighing proposals like GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act, which seek to define the boundaries of crypto activities within the traditional banking regime and curb practices that could be mischaracterized as bank-like products without full bank regulation. The evolving regulatory mosaic poses a dilemma for firms seeking charters: how to align innovative custody models with a robust, predictable framework that ensures customer protection and systemic stability—without dampening the competitiveness and speed of financial-technology innovation.

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As regulatory scoping continues to evolve, observers note that the OCC’s framework for conditional approvals to national trust charters could have meaningful implications for market structure, consumer safeguards, and the scope of permissible activities for non-deposit-taking digital asset custodians. The tension between fostering innovation and ensuring a resilient financial system remains at the heart of the debate. Several pieces of legislation and policy proposals that would influence this trajectory are already in circulation, reinforcing the sense that 2026 could be a critical year for how crypto custody and stablecoins are governed at the federal level.

Why it matters

For investors, the ongoing regulatory clarifications affect risk assessment and the perceived legitimacy of crypto custody solutions. A formal, well-defined regulatory framework could reduce ambiguity around the protections afforded to customer assets held by uninsured digital-asset trusts and influence risk pricing for associated products. For builders and operators, clear rules can help map out feasible business models that align with capital, governance, and risk-management expectations. And for policymakers, the interplay between GENIUS Act provisions, banking supervision, and securities/derivatives regulation underscores a key objective: ensuring that innovation remains aligned with financial stability and consumer protection.

From a market structure perspective, the debate highlights how custody and settlement infrastructures could evolve under federal oversight. If the OCC’s conditional trust charters become a common feature, watchers will be looking for transparency around capital requirements, resilience standards, and the safeguards that would prevent consumer confusion—especially around institutions that use “bank” in their names for branding purposes despite not engaging in traditional banking activities. The industry’s insistence on naming rules reflects a broader concern about trust and clarity in a landscape where digital assets can be held by entities operating under a federal umbrella but without full deposit-taking powers.

Meanwhile, the GENIUS Act and related proposals continue to shape the policy dialogue on stablecoins and digital assets within the U.S. financial system. As the regulatory math evolves, the market will be watching how agencies interpret and implement these concepts in real-world chartering decisions. The balancing act remains: enable responsible innovation in custody and settlement while preserving a robust, transparent, and enforceable supervisory regime that protects consumers and maintains market integrity.

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What to watch next

  • OCC’s formal response to the ABA comment letter and any adjustments to the proposed rulemaking timeline.
  • Developments in GENIUS Act rulemaking and any accompanying guidance that clarifies obligations for crypto custody under national bank charters.
  • Details on the five crypto firms granted conditional national trust charters, including milestones for capital, risk controls, and asset segregation.
  • Legislative progress on the CLARITY Act and related measures that would influence stablecoin governance and disclosure requirements.

Sources & verification

  • The ABA letter to the OCC regarding national bank chartering (PDF).
  • OCC press release: conditional national trust bank approvals for Bitgo Bank & Trust, Fidelity Digital Assets, Ripple National Trust Bank, First National Digital Currency Bank, and Paxos Trust Company (nr-occ-2025-125.html).
  • OCC updates on GENIUS Act-related rulemaking and related policy discussions cited in industry coverage.
  • Cointelegraph reporting on the OCC’s stance toward treating banks and crypto equally and the broader lobbying around the GENIUS Act and related reforms.

What the ABA letter says, in context

The ABA’s position centers on prudence and transparency. The association argues that the OCC should resist rushing charter approvals for entities handling uninsured customer funds in crypto and stablecoin operations until the GENIUS Act rulemakings are fully defined and integrated into a coherent supervisory framework. It emphasizes that without a clear, comprehensive set of obligations, chartered entities could encounter undefined capital, operational resilience, and customer-protection standards. The letter calls for greater clarity on how capital and resilience benchmarks will be calibrated in conditional approvals and presses for tighter naming rules to prevent consumer confusion when entities use “bank” in their branding, despite not engaging in traditional banking activities. The overarching theme is to align innovation with robust safeguards and to keep deposit-empowered banks as the reference point for consumer protections and risk management.

Key figures and next steps

As the regulatory conversation continues, observers will be watching a trio of developments: the OCC’s formal responses to stakeholder comments, the progression of GENIUS Act rulemaking, and the practical implications of the five conditional charter approvals already granted. The dialogue around whether banks and crypto should be treated differently is likely to persist, but the current emphasis appears to be on ensuring that any new chartering framework provides explicit obligations and strong oversight. With policy and industry stakeholders navigating these questions, the coming months could define how crypto custody, stablecoin issuance, and related digital-asset activities are integrated into the U.S. banking system on a long-term, predictable basis.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

Strategy to Push Preferred Stock to Boost Bitcoin Buys: CEO

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Strategy to Push Preferred Stock to Boost Bitcoin Buys: CEO

Bitcoin treasury company Strategy will further lean on its preferred stock sales to acquire Bitcoin, shifting from its strategy of selling common stock, says CEO Phong Le.

“We will start to transition from equity capital to preferred capital,” Le told Bloomberg’s “The Close” on Wednesday.

Stretch (STRC) is Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock, launched in July, and is aimed at buyers looking for stability by offering an annual dividend of over 11%. 

STRC is the company’s fourth perpetual preferred offering, launched to finance its Bitcoin (BTC) purchases. It’s an alternative to issuing new shares that dilute its stock price.

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Strategy CEO Phong Le appears on Bloomberg’s “The Close” on Wednesday. Source: YouTube

Le admitted that its preferred stock will “take some seasoning” and marketing to pitch traders on the offering, but added that “throughout the course of this year, we expect Stretch to be a big product for us.”

Strategy could restart offerings as STRC hits $100

STRC reclaimed its par value of $100 at the close of trading on Wednesday for the first time since mid-January, which Le said was the “story of the day.”

The stock had dipped below $94 earlier this month as Bitcoin crashed under $60,000, but with it now trading at par — the price Strategy has designated as its minimum — the company could again offer shares to fund more Bitcoin purchases.

Bitcoin has traded mostly flat over the last 24 hours at around $66,800, down from an intraday high of over $68,000.

Buying Bitcoin treasury rivals a “distraction”

Analysts have warned that the crypto treasury space is becoming crowded as companies compete for a small segment of traders, leading to some companies’ crypto holdings being worth more than the companies themselves.

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Related: Saylor’s Strategy buys $90M in Bitcoin as price trades below cost basis

In that case, some analysts said that rival treasury firms could move to acquire underperforming companies to scoop up Bitcoin on the cheap, but Le said Strategy isn’t interested in making such a move.