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US debt to break WWII record by 2030, CBO projects in new budget report

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US debt to break WWII record by 2030, CBO projects in new budget report

The U.S. national debt is on pace to break a record set after World War II in four years, while annual budget deficits are projected to balloon to $3 trillion a year a decade from now, according to a new analysis by Congress’ financial watchdog.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a budget and economic outlook spanning the next decade, which projected that federal budget deficits will rise from an estimated $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 to $3.1 trillion in 2036.

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Mounting budget deficits will push the national debt higher, with the gross federal debt rising from an estimated $39.4 trillion at the end of fiscal year 2026 to $63 trillion in 2036. That will also increase the amount of debt held by the public from $32 trillion to $56 trillion in that period and with it the public as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), a measure economists prefer to use in comparing a nation’s debt to the size of its economy.

U.S. debt held by the public is estimated to rise to 108% of GDP in 2030, which would surpass the record of 106% set in 1946 as the U.S. was in the process of demobilization after the end of World War II. A decade from now, debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP is projected to reach 120%.

NATIONAL DEBT SURPASSES $38 TRILLION MILESTONE FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY AS SPENDING SURGES

Making the fiscal picture even worse, the CBO estimates that the debt held by the public is expected to grow faster than U.S. GDP as projected in the years ahead, which could have far-reaching implications for the nation’s fiscal and economic outlook. It explained that could slow economic growth and reduce private investment, while hiking interest costs from servicing the debt.

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“The United States’ fiscal position would be more vulnerable to an increase in interest rates, because the larger debt is, the more an increase in interest rates raises debt-service costs,” CBO wrote. 

“The risk of a fiscal crisis — that is, a situation in which investors lose confidence in the value of the U.S. government’s debt — would increase. Such a crisis would cause interest rates to rise abruptly and other economic and financial disruptions to occur.”

WHAT ARE THE BIGGEST BUDGET DEFICITS IN US HISTORY

US Capitol Dome

The national debt as a share of the U.S. economy is on track to surge past a post-World War II record in the next four years. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

The budget watchdog added that higher inflation expectations could erode the dollar’s status as the dominant international reserve currency. 

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Further, it could cause lawmakers to feel constrained about using tax and spending policies in response to unforeseen events, such as to stimulate the economy or to strengthen national defense.

Under the CBO’s outlook, net interest costs are expected to surge from a little over $1 trillion in fiscal year 2026, representing 3.3% of GDP, to more than $2.1 trillion in 2036, when it would amount to 4.6% of GDP.

Interest costs are expected to account for nearly 14% of total federal spending this year, but would rise to nearly 19% of federal spending in 2036 under the CBO’s projection.

TRUMP’S CALL FOR $1.5 TRILLION DEFENSE BUDGET WOULD ADD TRILLIONS TO DEBT: CRFB

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Washington debates over national debt ceiling

The rising national debt and growing deficits will make it harder for Congress to enact tax and spending policies. (iStock)

Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, called the CBO’s latest report “an urgent warning to our leaders about America’s costly fiscal path.”

“Improving affordability is a top priority for the nation. Borrowing trillion after trillion takes us in the wrong direction, leading to higher interest costs and higher prices for everyday needs,” he said. “This election year, voters understand the connection between rising debt and their personal economic condition. And the financial markets are watching.

“Stabilizing our debt is an essential part of improving affordability and must be a core component of the 2026 campaign conversation.”

Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), said, “There are no surprises here or bright spots of encouraging news: Our nation’s deficits, debt, interest payments and trust funds are all in terrible shape.

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“Fiscal leadership is not easy — it requires committing to not making the situation worse by withholding support for new legislation that is debt financed, focusing on actual solutions rather than casting blame, and being willing to make tough policy choices that will be the centerpiece of any serious debt deal,” she added.

“This is too important a moment for our leaders to shirk these responsibilities, and I encourage every Member of Congress and the President to take a cold hard look at these numbers and pledge to fix our nation’s finances before it’s too late.”

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November, December Job Growth 17,000 Lower Than Previously Reported

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November, December Job Growth 17,000 Lower Than Previously Reported

Along with the annual benchmark revisions, the Bureau lowered its initial estimates for November and December job growth by about 17,000 combined.

Total nonfarm payroll employment for December was lowered by 2,000 positions. That took the initially reported 50,000 jobs added in the final month of the year to now just 48,000.

November payroll growth was revised down by 15,000 to 41,000 jobs added.

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Rain and politics driving up half-term holiday bookings, travel agents say

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Rain and politics driving up half-term holiday bookings, travel agents say

The Advantage Travel Partnerships says rain plus the political environment is creating a “powerful psychological need for escape”.

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Sanderson or Saffioti: Labor insiders divide

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Sanderson or Saffioti: Labor insiders divide

Some of Labor’s most senior and influential figures are deeply divided about a succession plan if Roger Cook was to quit before the 2029 election.

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AI coding platform's flaws allow BBC reporter to be hacked

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AI coding platform's flaws allow BBC reporter to be hacked

Vibe-coding tools – which let people without coding skills create apps using AI – are exploding in popularity.

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Global EV sales hampered by China, US slowdown in January

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Global EV sales hampered by China, US slowdown in January


Global EV sales hampered by China, US slowdown in January

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Brazil Supreme Court’s Toffoli to step aside from Banco Master case

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Brazil Supreme Court’s Toffoli to step aside from Banco Master case


Brazil Supreme Court’s Toffoli to step aside from Banco Master case

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IHCL net jumps over 50% in Q3, new businesses boost revenue

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IHCL net jumps over 50% in Q3, new businesses boost revenue
New Delhi: Tata Group-backed Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) on Thursday reported a 51% increase in consolidated third-quarter net profit to ₹954 crore from ₹632 crore a year earlier. Revenue from operations rose 12% to ₹2,842 crore.

The company said the profit was after exceptional items, which mainly included a ₹327 crore profit net of tax on the sale of its entire equity stake in a joint venture and a ₹37 crore impact from implementing new labour codes.

The quarter marked the fifteenth consecutive quarter of “record performance” with an Ebitda of ₹1,134 crore and an Ebitda margin of 39.1%, managing director and chief executive Puneet Chhatwal said.

The hotel segment reported ₹2,579 crore revenue, helping the chain post its best-ever segmental quarterly Ebitda of ₹1,050 crore.

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Third-quarter revenue growth was supported by a 17% expansion in airline and institutional catering and 31% increase in new businesses, Chhatwal said.


He said IHCL continued its growth momentum in FY26 with 239 signings, taking its portfolio of 617 hotels, and opened and onboarded 120 hotels, led by ‘strategic’ partnerships and acquisitions.
As per an exchange filing, Roots Corporation (RCL), a wholly-owned subsidiary of IHCL, acquired a 51% stake in ANK Hotels and Pride Hospitality on December 1, 2025, for a total cash consideration of ₹190.5 crore. Under its Accelerate 2030 initiative, the chain expanded its brandscape with the acquisition of a controlling stake in wellness brand Atmantan, entered into definitive agreements to acquire a 51% stake in Brij, a boutique experiential leisure offering, and scaled the Ginger brand with 51% acquisition in ANK & Pride Hospitality.

IHCL had a gross cash balance of ₹3,877 crore as on December 31, he said, adding: “IHCL is well placed to deliver sustained performance enabled by a diversified top line across brands, geographies and contract types.”

He said the chain’s pipeline is as high as the number of rooms in operations.

“IHCL is probably the only company across sectors that is growing and still maintaining an increase in Ebitda and maintaining the Ebitda margins. We are scaling and we are scaling profitably,” he said.

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Austal downgrades guidance after forecast mistake

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Austal downgrades guidance after forecast mistake

WA shipbuilder Austal has downgraded its earnings guidance for the year by 18 per cent, after a mistake in its US subsidiary, Austal USA’s guidance.

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Kariyarra, Vysarn pitch paleochannel to solve Hedland water woes

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Kariyarra, Vysarn pitch paleochannel to solve Hedland water woes

A traditional owner-backed project has put its hand up to help Water Corporation solve its water supply shortage in Port Hedland.

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Nissan boss says car maker is on the right track despite continued losses

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CEO Ivan Espinosa said his company had to “reset the clock” with its major restructuring effort

A Nissan Leaf bodyside passes through the Sunderland plant's Body Shop

A Nissan Leaf bodyside passes through the Sunderland plant’s Body Shop(Image: Matt Walker)

Factory closures and job cuts are helping Nissan to stage a turnaround of its challenged performance, its CEO has told reporters.

The Japanese automotive giant has slashed forecasted losses for its 2025 financial year saying it now expects an operating loss of 60billion yen (about £287m) down from its previous outlook of 275billion yen (£1.31bn). Ivan Espinosa said the results – which also include a 44% fall in third quarter operating profits to 17.5billion yen (£83.7m) – showed progress.

The ‘Re:Nissan’ programme has introduced sweeping job cuts of up to 20,000 by 2027, the closure of seven factories globally and redeployment of 3,000 people from work on future models to look at cost cutting ideas. It came amid serious financial challenges to the company, which now hopes to become profitable by the end of its 2026 financial year.

The firm says it has identified more than £593m of cost savings through “thousands of innovative ideas”. It has reported about £383m alone in the first half of this year.

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Mr Espinosa told a press conference in Japan that sales remained under pressure and tariffs continued to present issues, but sought to reassure that turnaround efforts were working. He said: “From the beginning, we said that this year was a year of restructuring. And when you do a restructuring unfortunately there are costs that are incurred and impairments that are incurred.

“It’s unfortunate that we have a net loss this year but in a way, it’s expected. This is what we said we’d do. We had to reset the clock of the company and this is what we’re doing with the plan.

“I think it’s remarkable to recognise from the teams the discipline and the dedication that they have put into moving the company from where we were to where we are in the third quarter.”

He added: “We are moving swiftly, with responsibility and taking care of the actions that we have to follow. We are a bit ahead of schedule in terms of the workforce reduction but we’re not sharing the breakdown – it’s about thoughtfulness and responsibility in the way we’re managing these adjustments to the workforce.”

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Following failed merger negotiations with Honda, Nissan has rekindled talks with its rival. Mr Espinosa said those discussions were “focussing on projects that bring win-win to both companies” – particularly a focus on how to collaborate in North America where both car makers are facing headwinds from tariffs under President Trump.

Nissan’s Sunderland factory recently started production of the third generation Leaf model, 15 years on from the launch of its first predecessor. The success of the new Leaf could prove pivotal to Nissan which has invested millions in its transition to electric vehicle production at the Wearside plant which employs about 6,000 people.

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