Gold is attempting to break its medium-term trend, with the latest US labour market data acting as the main catalyst. The US employment report released on 2 July came in noticeably weaker than expected, with the pace of hiring slowing to its lowest level in several months. This may have dampened expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, while the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, due to be released on 8 July, could provide further insight into how long this pause in the central bank’s rhetoric is likely to last. For now, markets are pricing in a more dovish scenario, supporting safe-haven assets such as gold.

Technical Analysis

On the four-hour chart, XAU/USD declined from the $4,221 area in late June to around $3,942, where a recovery began. The decline formed a descending wedge, with its lower boundary attracting strong buying interest. This resulted in a sharp rebound, accompanied by a decisive breakout above both the pattern and the current market profile.

On 2 July, price closed above the upper boundary of the market profile at $4,091 and, if the rally continues, could target the base of the wedge. Should the market reverse, price is likely to retest the profile’s high-volume area, while the Point of Control (POC) at $4,030 and the lower profile boundary at $3,971 could provide support for buyers.

The RSI + MAs indicator currently stands at 62, 65 and 55. All three lines remain above the neutral level and continue to point higher, while the moving averages are still signalling bullish momentum. However, it is worth noting that the RSI has already entered overbought territory, suggesting that expectations for a substantial continuation of the rally should remain cautious.

Key Takeaways

The breakout from the descending wedge may have been interpreted by market participants as the beginning of a local trend reversal. However, a move towards the red resistance zone and a test of that area remain highly uncertain, particularly ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, which could significantly reshape market expectations.

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Naver Financial has postponed the completion of its all-stock share swap with Dunamu for a second time, extending the closing date to Dec. 31 as regulatory approvals remain pending.

According to a regulatory filing disclosed by Dunamu, the planned comprehensive share exchange with Naver Financial has been rescheduled from Sept. 30 to Dec. 31, following an earlier postponement that moved the timeline from June 30 to September.

Share swap awaits regulatory approvals

The filing kept the exchange ratio unchanged at 2.5422618 Naver Financial shares for every one Dunamu share. It also repeated that completion of the transaction depends on approvals from South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission, clearance for changes in major shareholders under the Credit Information Act, and notifications required under the Act on Reporting and Use of Specific Financial Transaction Information.

Dunamu said in the filing that delays in those approval processes could push the schedule back further or even prevent the share exchange from being completed. The company also noted that ongoing discussions around South Korea’s proposed Digital Asset Basic Act could affect the transaction depending on the final form of the legislation once it is enacted and implemented.

The latest delay comes after Naver Financial previously postponed the transaction in March, when it moved the expected completion date from late June to Sept. 30 while citing regulatory approval procedures and legal developments. 

At the time, the company said the deal remained subject to several government approvals and could face additional delays or cancellation depending on the outcome of those reviews.

Merger continues under regulatory scrutiny

Regulatory oversight has also intensified since the transaction was first announced. In April, South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service ordered Dunamu to correct omissions in its disclosure related to the merger after identifying missing or inaccurate information concerning future corporate restructuring plans and other matters important to investors.

The regulator’s review came as lawmakers continued debating the Digital Asset Basic Act, with local reports indicating that proposed limits on major shareholders of virtual asset exchanges could affect Naver Financial’s plan to acquire full ownership of Dunamu. Dunamu has previously stated that it intends to proceed with the transaction despite the legislative uncertainty.

The all-stock deal, confirmed in late 2024, values Dunamu at around $10 billion and is expected to bring the operator of Upbit under Naver Financial. The companies have also outlined plans to cooperate on digital asset services, including the development of the Silk Pocket stablecoin wallet alongside blockchain investment firm Hashed and the Busan Digital Exchange.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $265.69 million on Monday, the largest daily inflow in over a month and the second in three sessions after July 2 broke a long run of outflows, per SoSoValue data. Ether ETFs added $20.66 million the same day, led by BlackRock’s ETHA at $23.29 million.

BlackRock’s IBIT absorbed $209.40 million of the bitcoin total, with ARKB taking in $32.98 million and Grayscale’s mini BTC fund adding $42.25 million. GBTC shed $44.45 million, the only fund in the red.

The daily turn has not fixed the weekly picture yet. Spot bitcoin ETFs still lost a net $526.6 million over the shortened holiday week, an eighth straight week of negative flows. Ether ETFs lost $13.7 million on the week.

Total bitcoin ETF assets climbed back to $77.32 billion from a June 30 low of $70.95 billion, helped by both the price recovery and the returning bid. Bitcoin traded near $63,200 as the data landed, per CoinDesk data.

Strategy’s $216 million Bitcoin sale on Monday should be seen as a positive development for the price of Bitcoin and as a move that renews confidence in STRC, according to analysts.

The sale of 3,588 BTC to fund preferred stock dividend payments and replenish cash has boosted Strategy’s dollar reserves to cover 17 months of dividend payments. “The rebound in STRC suggests investors are responding positively to this decision,” Grayscale Research said Monday.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph that Strategy’s recent sale was a “smart, stabilizing move that actually strengthens the setup for Bitcoin.”

Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, said Strategy’s actions should “restore market confidence” in its financing structure, and may help Bitcoin’s price “find a more durable bottom,” as it relieves the pressure of further BTC sales from Saylor’s company. 

Strategy’s announcement that it sold Bitcoin caused the asset to drop 2.4% in a matter of hours. However, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s yield-bearing STRC product rebounded soon after, suggesting that investor concern was short-lived.

Restoring market confidence 

There is nothing wrong with Strategy’s balance sheet, and the company clearly has sufficient financial resources to service its debt and dividend obligations, Pandl said. 

“Nevertheless, shifting market conditions created uncertainty about how Strategy would balance competing priorities.”

Related: Strategy will be ‘less important’ in Bitcoin after STRC incident: Bitwise

Strategy clarified in late June that it would issue shares and sell Bitcoin as needed to maintain sufficient US dollar reserves to cover its dividend obligations. 

Strategy’s dollar reserves now total $2.55 billion, or the equivalent of about 17 months of dividend cover. Meanwhile, the rebound in the price of STRC — which topped $91 for the first time in three weeks on Monday — “suggests investors are now more confident about the instrument,” Pandl said. 

Bitcoin sales funded Strategy’s USD Reserve and bolstered investor confidence. Source: Grayscale

The sale reduces forced-selling risks

“By using the proceeds to pad cash reserves for roughly 17 months of STRC dividends, they’ve cut near-term financing pressure and overhang, which helped spark Bitcoin’s quick recovery above $64k while lifting STRC near $90,” Adziima said.

“In my view, this reduces forced-selling risks, rebuilds confidence in their structure and paves the way for a more durable bottom as other buyers step in, prudent balance-sheet management rather than any kind of capitulation.”

BTC recovered to reach $64,400 in late trading on Monday, but had dipped to $63,120 at the time of writing. 

Magazine: AI is banking the unbanked in Africa… faster than crypto

Bitcoin’s dip from just under $64,000 to around $62,000 Monday was not a slow grind lower—it was a fast unwind driven by derivatives positioning, then amplified by a new catalyst from Strategy’s latest regulatory disclosure.

According to Cointelegraph’s coverage of the filing, the move was linked to Strategy’s largest reported Bitcoin sale of 3,588 BTC. While spot demand was only slightly negative during Sunday’s upswing, Monday’s turn showed how quickly leverage can shift when corporate treasury supply hits the tape.

Key takeaways

• Sunday’s rally was largely futures-led, with net futures buying of roughly $415 million, leaving price vulnerable to forced unwind.
• Strategy’s SEC disclosure appears to have triggered Monday’s unwind, with four-hour net futures selling jumping to about $456 million.
• Liquidations ran in both directions during the volatility, totaling roughly $42 million in long liquidations and $49 million in short liquidations.
• Spot buying returned on Monday afternoon—after days of limited spot participation—suggesting a more balanced push-pull between spot and derivatives.
• With open futures positions near $20.6 billion and funding staying positive, the market remains leveraged, but the setup is fragile if new macro headlines or selling pressure extend.

From futures momentum to leverage unwind

Sunday’s move toward $64,000 was dominated by derivatives flows. The session saw net futures buying of roughly $415 million, including a concentrated four-hour window of about $687 million. That burst reportedly force-closed around $33 million in bets against Bitcoin, highlighting how rapidly directional exposure built.

At the same time, spot flows were slightly negative. That matters because when price rises mainly on paper positions rather than cash demand, the move can reverse quickly if traders reduce risk—especially when leverage is crowded and stops or margin calls force synchronized selling.

Monday’s selloff accelerated once the Strategy story landed. The SEC disclosure described the company selling BTC to fund dividend payments, with additional sell capacity still available afterward. As that information reached traders, the derivatives market shifted from buying pressure to selling pressure within hours.

Strategy’s sale: what the filing implies for flow expectations

The filing referenced in Cointelegraph’s reporting described Strategy selling 3,588 BTC for $216 million to fund dividend payments. The disclosure also indicated that an additional $1.25 billion of sale capacity remained unused.

For traders, the near-term question is straightforward: was Monday’s move a one-off repricing of known corporate supply, or the start of a broader selling pattern? The market’s reaction suggests traders treated the disclosure as actionable, at least for positioning purposes.

Immediately after the news hit, futures flows swung to approximately $456 million of net selling in a four-hour window. Both sides were liquidated as price moved sharply, with around $42 million of bullish positions wiped out alongside about $49 million of bearish positions—an outcome consistent with choppy, momentum-driven trading rather than a clean trend.

Funding stays positive, but fragility is rising

Despite the whipsaw, Bitcoin’s funding rate reportedly remained in positive territory for more than a week, including during Monday’s decline. Positive funding typically indicates that leveraged longs are paying shorts—often interpreted as “optimism” in the derivatives market.

That said, the overall structure matters more than a single funding reading. With roughly $20.6 billion in open futures positions, the market still carries significant leverage. In this environment, even modest catalysts can produce outsized price swings if many traders are already crowded on the same side or if momentum traders are forced to exit quickly.

Open interest figures showed the scale of exposure did not disappear—meaning the market may still be susceptible to another round of repricing should catalysts stack up.

One notable difference between Sunday and Monday is the market’s later composition: Monday afternoon recovery included net futures buying of about $568 million paired with spot buying of roughly $143 million. That combination—spot participation joining derivatives—helps explain why the rebound looked less like a pure futures-led bounce and more like a market trying to find support with cash demand.

What to watch next: unused capacity and the Fed’s minutes

Beyond Strategy, the key uncertainty is whether the unused $1.25 billion authorization becomes a lingering overhang for rallies. If traders believe additional corporate sales are likely, rallies can struggle to sustain even when funding remains positive and spot buying appears to return.

On the macro side, attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the June meeting. Cointelegraph notes markets are currently pricing a 75.6% chance that rates will remain at 3.50%-3.75% in July. Still, any hawkish language in the minutes could test crowded leveraged long positions.

The article highlights potential pressure zones around $62,300 to $62,800 above current price action, and downside levels around $61,000 and $59,500 if momentum shifts again. In a market where funding has stayed positive and open interest remains elevated, levels tied to forced unwind dynamics can matter as much as long-term valuation arguments.

For now, traders should focus on whether Monday’s spot reappearance persists and whether Strategy’s remaining sale authorization translates into further market-selling expectations. With leverage still embedded in open futures positions and upcoming macro catalysts in play, Bitcoin’s next move may depend less on narrative and more on whether cash buyers can consistently offset derivatives-induced volatility.

Key Highlights

• XRP gained approximately 8% over a seven-day period following a rebound from $1.03
• Spot ETF net inflows decreased by 55% during June, falling from $132M to $59M
• The XRP Binance Scarcity Index reached 0.77, marking its highest reading in over 24 months
• Binance’s XRP holdings have declined 20% since November 2024, currently sitting at approximately 2.6 billion tokens
• Critical resistance level identified at $1.20, with upside target at $1.50 and downside risk at $0.80

XRP has demonstrated a solid recovery over the past week, posting gains of nearly 8% after establishing support at the $1.03 level. The digital asset is currently changing hands above $1.15, successfully reclaiming a price point that served as a support threshold before the June downturn.

Market activity intensified significantly, with trading volume surging approximately 62% within a 24-hour window to reach $1.8 billion. Such dramatic volume increases typically indicate fresh market participation following periods of subdued trading activity.

This rebound follows a challenging June for XRP holders. The token experienced a significant decline from heights above $1.55 in February, ultimately bottoming out near the $1.00 to $1.04 range by late June—representing the most substantial holder drawdown in over a decade.

Institutional appetite, as measured through ETF flows, painted a cautious picture during this period. Net capital inflows to XRP-linked spot exchange-traded funds contracted from $132 million in May to just $59 million in June, representing a 55% month-over-month decline. Traditional finance interest appeared to wane despite the token’s price compression.

Large Holders Accumulate as Exchange Inventory Tightens

Blockchain metrics revealed a contrasting narrative within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger surged to levels not witnessed since February, as reported by Santiment. During that February timeframe, XRP traded within a $1.47 to $1.54 range.

Concurrently, the XRP Binance Scarcity Index climbed to 0.77 this week, representing its most elevated reading in more than two years, based on analysis from CryptoQuant researcher ArabxChain. This indicator quantifies XRP’s availability on Binance compared to historical benchmarks.

Binance’s XRP inventory has contracted by approximately 20% since November 2024, declining from roughly 3.27 billion tokens to around 2.6 billion currently. Holdings specifically dropped from about 2.8 billion in May to 2.6 billion by early July, coinciding precisely with the scarcity index’s breakout to new highs.

Market observers at ChartNerd highlighted this technical formation on X, describing XRP’s “3rd Retest” as a favorable entry point for position builders, characterizing it as “a gift” for chart-focused market participants.

Short Position Liquidations Contributed to Initial Rally

Futures market data from Coinglass reveals funding rates plunged into deeply negative territory between June 26 and 28, coinciding precisely with the price bottom. This concentration of short positions created conditions favorable for a squeeze.

The subsequent rally to $1.13 appears consistent with forced short covering rather than organic new demand. Funding rates have since normalized to slightly positive, suggesting a healthier positioning landscape.

Immediate resistance is located at $1.20, which previously contained the mid-June recovery attempt. A confirmed daily close above this threshold would expose the $1.35–$1.40 region, representing approximately 22% upside from current pricing.

The daily Relative Strength Index currently reads near 55, indicating additional headroom exists before overbought territory becomes a concern.

The 200-day Exponential Moving Average is positioned at $1.50, which technical analysts identify as the primary bullish objective if buying momentum persists. Conversely, a breakdown below $1.00 would negate the current recovery thesis.

XRP volume recently exceeded Bitcoin on South Korean platform Upbit, providing an interesting data point as market participants evaluate whether genuine demand is materializing.