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Crypto World

Naver Financial delays Dunamu share swap again as approvals remain pending

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What is atomic settlement? Payment-versus-Payment and the and of settlement risk

Naver Financial has postponed the completion of its all-stock share swap with Dunamu for a second time, extending the closing date to Dec. 31 as regulatory approvals remain pending.

Summary

  • Naver Financial and Dunamu have delayed their planned share swap for a second time, with completion now expected on Dec. 31.
  • The deal remains subject to multiple regulatory approvals and could face further delays or cancellation if those processes are not completed.
  • Dunamu said South Korea’s proposed Digital Asset Basic Act could still influence the structure or outcome of the transaction.

According to a regulatory filing disclosed by Dunamu, the planned comprehensive share exchange with Naver Financial has been rescheduled from Sept. 30 to Dec. 31, following an earlier postponement that moved the timeline from June 30 to September.

Share swap awaits regulatory approvals

The filing kept the exchange ratio unchanged at 2.5422618 Naver Financial shares for every one Dunamu share. It also repeated that completion of the transaction depends on approvals from South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission, clearance for changes in major shareholders under the Credit Information Act, and notifications required under the Act on Reporting and Use of Specific Financial Transaction Information.

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Dunamu said in the filing that delays in those approval processes could push the schedule back further or even prevent the share exchange from being completed. The company also noted that ongoing discussions around South Korea’s proposed Digital Asset Basic Act could affect the transaction depending on the final form of the legislation once it is enacted and implemented.

The latest delay comes after Naver Financial previously postponed the transaction in March, when it moved the expected completion date from late June to Sept. 30 while citing regulatory approval procedures and legal developments. 

At the time, the company said the deal remained subject to several government approvals and could face additional delays or cancellation depending on the outcome of those reviews.

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Merger continues under regulatory scrutiny

Regulatory oversight has also intensified since the transaction was first announced. In April, South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service ordered Dunamu to correct omissions in its disclosure related to the merger after identifying missing or inaccurate information concerning future corporate restructuring plans and other matters important to investors.

The regulator’s review came as lawmakers continued debating the Digital Asset Basic Act, with local reports indicating that proposed limits on major shareholders of virtual asset exchanges could affect Naver Financial’s plan to acquire full ownership of Dunamu. Dunamu has previously stated that it intends to proceed with the transaction despite the legislative uncertainty.

The all-stock deal, confirmed in late 2024, values Dunamu at around $10 billion and is expected to bring the operator of Upbit under Naver Financial. The companies have also outlined plans to cooperate on digital asset services, including the development of the Silk Pocket stablecoin wallet alongside blockchain investment firm Hashed and the Busan Digital Exchange.

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With minutes due, Fed’s ‘family fight’ over interest rates could drag on

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Warsh's task forces to reshape the Federal Reserve
Warsh's task forces to reshape the Federal Reserve

Divided Federal Reserve officials indicated at their last meeting that they will address persistent inflation this year with one interest rate hike. History, though, suggests that policymakers will have a hard time stopping there.

In fact, there have been few instances over the past 35 years or so when the Fed has only made one rate move, be it up or down. Rather, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee tends to move in rate cycles, where it adjusts policy multiple times over a period to meet whatever goal it seeks to accomplish.

“A lot of people are talking about one rate increase. The committee does not generally do that. I mean, what’s the point of that?” former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard told CNBC on Monday. “So, usually it means a tightening cycle, and I think markets are trying to sniff that out right now.”

Markets will get more clues Wednesday about the Fed’s policy direction when the committee releases minutes from its June 16-17 meeting. The summary will provide a glimpse behind the curtain of new Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first meeting, which he characterized last month as “a good family fight” on the direction of rates.

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A history of cycles

The last meeting featured an update on participants’ views on rates and key economic metrics and a dramatically shortened statement that flatly stated, “The Committee will deliver price stability.”

In the “dot plot” grid of individual participants’ rate expectations, the committee leaned to a hike before the end of 2026 and then one cut each in the next two years.

But the FOMC’s history is that it rarely makes one-off rate adjustments.

In the last cycle, it cut three times in the back half of 2025. Before that, the Fed cut three times in 2024, hiked 11 times between 2022-23 and cut five times between 2019-20.

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In fact, you’d have to go back to 2015 for the last time the committee made just one move, and that was primarily because it considered the economy too unstable for a previously planned hiking cycle. Going back to 1990, such moves were rarely seen.

The reasoning is fairly straightforward: Officials think policy needs to be persistent and aggressive, and modest tweaks like quarter-point moves rarely help when the Fed is trying to solve a problem.

In this instance, the central bank’s problem is inflation that is running well above its 2% target for the past five years. Some officials believe an easing of hostilities in the Middle East, a decline in oil prices and the fading impacts of tariffs could help ease price increases, but there is significant disagreement on whether the trend is down or up.

Bullard isn’t as convinced inflation will unwind and thinks the Fed may have to act soon — before the November midterm election, even if there’s a perception that an increase would be politically risky. President Donald Trump, in particular, could get restless after appointing Warsh to succeed now-Governor Jerome Powell, whom the president frequently criticized.

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“If you wait till after the election, you might have to do more, and that’s really the risk for the committee here,” Bullard said. “You wait too long, and then you might get into the winter or first half of next year, and now you have to do quite a bit in order to keep inflation under control.”

The minutes themselves, however, may offer fewer clues than in previous years.

Investors looking for deep insight on the internal debate may be disappointed as the Warsh Fed appears set to provide less direct communication and “forward guidance” about the path ahead.

Minutes already had been inscrutable enough, with officials cloaked in anonymity and vague quantifiers used to reflect group sentiment at the meeting. The lack of clarity could intensify under Warsh’s direction.

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“We expect Warsh to make the FOMC minutes less informative with respect to the views expressed at the FOMC meetings,” Standard Chartered strategist Steve Englander said in a client note.

“In particular, the ‘Participant Views’ section may greatly reduce the ‘almost all/most/many/some/a few/a couple/one’ phrasing that indicates the degree of support among participants for differing views, risks and policy options,” he added. “We think the minutes will become a more anodyne listing of policy decisions, such as when Paul Volcker was chair.”

The inflation-slaying Volcker served between 1979 and 1987.

Inflation outlook varies

Investors increasingly appear to believe inflation will drift back toward the Fed’s target over time, though consumers have expressed considerably more discomfort about future price increases.

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Treasury market securities that investors use to price in inflation expectations are subdued. The 5- and 10 year “breakeven” rates, or the difference between yields on Treasurys and inflation-backed notes, have been around their lowest levels of the year, and other metrics are following suit.

But the New York Fed’s monthly consumer survey for June showed inflation expectations at multi-year highs: The one-year outlook (3.7%) was at its highest since September 2023, while the three-year (3.3%) hit its peak since June 2022.

Markets, though, are largely in line with the Fed’s June blueprint.

Traders are pricing in a hike as early as September, then see policymakers staying on hold for at least the next year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch. The futures market is pricing in additional hikes, but not until later years.

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Not everyone agrees, with some on Wall Street expecting the Fed to have to take more aggressive action.

Bank of America recently raised its interest rate forecast, saying it now sees the central bank having to approve three quarter-percentage-point hikes before the end of this year.

“We were skeptical of the need for cuts in 2025. Both the data and our updated read of the Fed’s reaction function suggest it will reverse those cuts in short order,” BofA economist Aditya Bhave said in a note.

The bank, however, expects the hiking cycle will be brief, allowing the Fed to stay on hold in 2027 after showing its resolve to tame inflation.

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Nexo bets big on Argentina with crypto card launch and new country chief

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Nexo bets big on Argentina with crypto card launch and new country chief
  • Nexo Card launches in Argentina with debit and credit modes for crypto users.
  • Andres Ondarra will lead Nexo Argentina as General Manager from August 1.
  • Buenos Aires is being positioned as Nexo’s regional hub for Latin America.

Nexo has launched its crypto debit-and-credit card in Argentina, marking a deeper push into one of Latin America’s most active digital-asset markets and placing Buenos Aires at the centre of its regional expansion strategy.

The launch comes alongside a leadership change, with Andres Ondarra appointed General Manager of Nexo Argentina.

The company said the two developments mark the next stage of its growth in the country, where digital assets have become a mainstream part of wealth management for many users.

Nexo described Argentina as a market where crypto adoption runs deeper than almost anywhere else, citing the highest share of digital-asset adoption among markets surveyed.

The company also said Argentina processed approximately $93.9 billion in digital-asset transactions over three years, ranking second in Latin America behind Brazil.

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Nexo Card brings spending and borrowing utility

The Nexo Card allows clients in Argentina to use digital assets in two ways. In debit mode, users can spend their holdings directly. In credit mode, they can borrow against those assets as collateral without selling them.

The company said clients can switch between both modes through a single interface, giving users more flexibility in how they manage and use their crypto wealth.

New clients are being offered 10% back on their first swipe.

They can also receive additional cashback and milestone rewards worth up to USD 450 in total during their first three months. Nexo said users can earn up to 13% annual interest on idle in-app balances, paid daily.

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The card has previously been recognised by the Digital Banker Awards, the FinTech Breakthrough Awards, and the PAY360 Awards.

“Argentine clients have spent a decade making digital assets part of how they manage wealth. The Nexo Card is built precisely for that — letting them spend in debit mode, borrow against their holdings in credit mode, and earn from every transaction, all without having to sell. It’s the freedom to live on that wealth, not just hold it,” said Andres Ondarra, incoming General Manager, Nexo Argentina.

For Nexo, the product launch is aimed at the next phase of crypto usage in Argentina.

With capital already moved into digital assets, the company is focusing on everyday utility: spending, borrowing and earning from holdings without requiring clients to sell them.

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Eligible clients in Argentina can apply for the Nexo Card through the Nexo app and website.

Ondarra takes charge as Buenos Aires becomes regional hub

Ondarra will formally lead Nexo Argentina’s operations from August 1.

He brings more than 25 years of experience across traditional finance, fintech and crypto in Latin America, including a background in Wall Street investment banking.

His appointment comes as Nexo positions Buenos Aires as its regional hub for Latin America.

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The company said it is investing in local infrastructure, sports partnerships, including the AFA, and a local team to support clients across the region.

Ondarra succeeds Federico Ogue, who led Nexo’s expansion in Argentina and is now moving to a new entrepreneurial venture.

“Argentina has one of the most sophisticated crypto and fintech ecosystems in the region, and the work Nexo has done here is something to be proud of. I look forward to passing the baton to Andres, who brings exactly the experience and vision to lead Nexo’s next stage of growth in Argentina,” said Ogue.

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Elon Musk’s SpaceX moves bitcoin for the first time in six months

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Elon Musk's SpaceX moves bitcoin for the first time in six months

SpaceX (SPCX) apparently moved bitcoin across its wallets early Wednesday for the first time in about six months in three transfers totaling less than $300 of its $1.16 billion holding that don’t signal any impending sales.

Data from Arkham Intelligence shows the largest transfer across addresses tagged as belonging to the company moved 0.00213 BTC, about $135, between two wallets. A second sent 0.00139 BTC, or about $89.

In the third, Coinbase Prime’s custody service topped up a SpaceX address with 0.000738 BTC, around $47, the kind of small amount an exchange sends to cover network fees before a larger transaction can go through.

SpaceX went public on June 12 in the largest IPO on record, and its filing put the company’s full bitcoin position on a public balance sheet for the first time. Small movements can draw attention after a share listing even though none of the coins reached an exchange deposit address and none left SpaceX’s control.

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The company still holds 18,712 BTC. Transfers this size are usually routine maintenance: funding a wallet to pay fees, consolidating coins across addresses or testing a signing setup before moving a real balance.

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India Crypto Tax Filings Lagged Trading Activity: Reuters

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India Crypto Tax Filings Lagged Trading Activity: Reuters

India’s tax department reportedly found widespread gaps in crypto tax reporting, warning that offshore exchanges, private wallets and peer-to-peer (P2P) trades are making crypto activity harder to track. 

Reuters on Wednesday reported government documents showed that fewer than a quarter of 645,000 individuals who made crypto transactions in the year ending in March 2023 reported the trades on their tax returns. The department also reportedly estimated that India had about 39 million crypto traders holding over $2.1 billion in crypto at the end of May. 

The findings add a tax-enforcement factor to the country’s long-running digital asset policy debate, moving the issue beyond the central bank’s financial-stability concerns and into questions on offshore trading and recoverable tax revenue. India was ranked first in Chainalysis’ 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index.

The report comes days after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) backed a containment strategy for crypto assets. On July 3, the central bank urged lawmakers to keep banks and financial institutions insulated from cryptocurrencies and privately issued stablecoins. The RBI reportedly said prohibition remained a recognized policy option and recommended preventing digital asset use in payments and settlements. 

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Cointelegraph sought comment from India’s Central Board of Direct Taxes but had not received a response by publication.

Crypto tax enforcement remains a global challenge

India is not the only jurisdiction struggling to bring crypto activity into the tax net. In Israel, a voluntary disclosure program aimed at crypto profits fell short of expectations, according to a June 3 report by local business outlet Globes. 

The Israel Tax Authority (ITA) reportedly expected to collect 2 billion to 3 billion Israeli shekels (about $650 million to $986 million) from the process, which offered criminal immunity to taxpayers who would disclose previously hidden capital. 

Related: Petition to scrap South Korea’s crypto tax reaches 50K threshold

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Despite this, only 289 disclosure requests had been submitted since the program was launched in August 2025, with reported capital totaling 676.5 million shekels and estimated tax due of 40.9 million shekels. The figure was a sharp miss compared with the expectations and with the estimated crypto tax gap. 

Globes cited tax experts who said the program’s lack of an anonymous disclosure track had weakened the incentive for crypto holders to come forward.

Magazine: Has Bitcoin bottomed for this cycle? Analysts say ‘not yet’

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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MasTec (MTZ) Shares Decline 6% Following $1.65 Billion Superior Group Deal

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MTZ Stock Card

Key Highlights

  • MasTec (MTZ) is purchasing electrical contracting firm The Superior Group in a $1.65 billion transaction
  • Transaction terms include $1.175 billion cash plus $475 million in MTZ shares, with additional earnout provisions
  • Superior anticipates generating between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion in revenue throughout 2026
  • Shares of MTZ declined 5.72% in response to the acquisition news
  • Investment firm Mizuho increased MTZ price target to $502 while keeping Outperform status

On July 7, 2026, MasTec (MTZ) unveiled plans to acquire The Superior Group, an electrical contracting company based in Ohio, for roughly $1.65 billion.

Following the announcement, shares tumbled 5.72%, dropping $21.78 to close at $358.85.


MTZ Stock Card
MasTec, Inc., MTZ

The transaction structure includes $1.175 billion in cash payments and $475 million worth of MasTec shares. Additionally, an earnout component based on Superior’s performance metrics over the following 36 months has been incorporated.

Based on Superior’s projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA, the acquisition represents approximately 6.9 times that figure.

Operating from Columbus, Ohio, Superior maintains a workforce of approximately 3,000 employees. As an IBEW-signatory electrical contractor, the firm delivers comprehensive solutions spanning design, construction, engineering, prefabrication capabilities, and project oversight.

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The company’s revenue stream is heavily concentrated in the data center sector, representing about 90% of operations, with hyperscale clients accounting for roughly 70% of business.

For calendar year 2026, Superior forecasts revenue ranging from $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion, alongside adjusted EBITDA between $225 million and $250 million. MasTec anticipates Superior will generate $2.2 billion to $2.5 billion in revenue during 2027.

Through the balance of 2026, Superior is positioned to contribute $800 million to $900 million in revenue and $100 million to $115 million in adjusted EBITDA to MasTec’s financial performance.

Superior brings a substantial $1.4 billion project backlog and maintains a 300,000-square-foot prefabrication center — strategic assets that enhance MasTec’s operational capabilities.

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Integration Into MasTec’s Power Delivery Division

The acquisition will establish Superior as a distinct group within MasTec, functioning under the Power Delivery segment umbrella. This segment’s profit margins are projected to expand into the low double-digit range from the current level of approximately 9%.

Bryan Stewart, who currently serves as Superior’s Chairman and CEO, will continue in leadership alongside the company’s existing executive team.

To finance the cash component, MasTec will utilize available cash reserves, its current credit line, and two delayed draw term loan facilities arranged in conjunction with the transaction.

The transaction is anticipated to finalize in mid-to-late July 2026, subject to antitrust regulatory clearance.

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Wall Street Response

Mizuho elevated its MTZ price objective to $502 from the previous $498 target following the deal announcement, maintaining its Outperform recommendation. The investment bank observed that this acquisition completes the data center strategy MasTec presented during its May 12 analyst presentation.

Several other Wall Street firms had already adjusted their targets upward prior to this transaction. KeyBanc established a $500 target with an Overweight stance. Stifel upgraded its objective to $455, while TD Cowen advanced its target to $445 from $320. Jefferies currently maintains a $493 price target.

During Q1 2026, MasTec disclosed a 28% year-over-year expansion in backlog, with new contract awards climbing 18% compared to the prior-year period. The company’s backlog reached a record $20.3 billion as of the end of March.

MasTec conducted a conference call on Wednesday at 9:00 a.m. ET to provide details on the acquisition. Lazard served as financial advisor to MasTec in the transaction; UBS represented Superior.

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Citadel drops U.S. Portofino suit as it pursues founder in U.K. bankruptcy case

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Citadel drops U.S. Portofino suit as it pursues founder in U.K. bankruptcy case

Citadel told the New York court the decision to stop pursuing the case had nothing to do with the merits of its claims. Instead, it said it had already prevailed in a separate London arbitration against Portofino’s founders on employment-related claims including breach of contract, unlawful means conspiracy and deceit, winning damages and legal costs that the High Court later recognized and made enforceable.

Despite that victory, Citadel said it has been unable to collect the award, leading to the bankruptcy petition against Lancia.

In the filing, Citadel says Lancia owes 5.98 million pounds of the 2025 award by the London Court of International Arbitration as well as interest and costs.

The petition says the awards were recognized by England’s High Court in February, a statutory demand served in April went unsatisfied, and Lancia’s attempt to set aside that demand was dismissed in May.

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Citadel estimates it holds security worth only about 21,886 pounds against the debt, mostly small bank accounts and minority interests in French companies.

In the letter accompanying the U.S. dismissal, Citadel also noted that Lancia is subject to a worldwide freezing order and faces bankruptcy proceedings, adding that evidence presented at a June 26 High Court hearing failed to persuade the court that his ownership stake in Portofino held significant value.

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Kalshi traders think Hormuz traffic won’t return to normal this year

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Kalshi traders think Hormuz traffic won't return to normal this year

Vessels off the coast of the Khor Fakkan Container Terminal, the only natural deep-sea port in the region and one of the major container ports in Sharjah Emirate, along the Gulf of Oman on June 28, 2026.

– | Afp | Getty Images

President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is “over” after the U.S. conducted strikes against the Islamic Republic following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. 

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Now, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are recalibrating their outlook for when they see traffic in the passageway returning to normal.

Speculators now see just a 44% chance that traffic flows will return to normal by Dec. 1. The earliest they forecast normal traffic by is Jan. 1, 2027, when odds rose to 53%. 

Kalshi defines normal traffic flows as a 7-day moving average of transit calls through the strait above 60. The outcome is verified using data reported from IMF PortWatch. 

Odds of when traffic will return to normal have tumbled sharply over the last few days. As recently as July 4, traders on Kalshi placed more than 50% odds that flows would return to normal by Oct. 1.

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Traders on Polymarket are slightly more optimistic, with speculators there seeing a 59% chance that traffic flows return to normal in the vital maritime passage by Dec. 31. Polymarket uses the same definition and data as Kalshi to resolve contracts related to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.  

Traffic in the strait is “suddenly very far from normal,” Piper Sandler analyst Jan Stuart at Piper Sandler wrote in a Wednesday note.

“With the Strait back in play, global oil supply is again way short,” Stuart wrote. “Any hope of commercial insurers reducing ‘war risk’ assessments in months has been sunk.”

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

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Bitcoin Doesn’t Need a Savior as Strategy Cuts $216M BTC

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin sentiment is sliding to a level Lyn Alden describes as the weakest she has personally seen, as the latest market phase has become more corporate- and leverage-influenced rather than driven by fresh spot demand. In an interview with Natalie Brunell on Tuesday, Alden argued that Bitcoin’s long-term case cannot depend on outside saviors—it must be able to “survive on its own merits.”

The comments also arrive as Strategy, Michael Saylor’s flagship corporate Bitcoin vehicle and the largest public holder, disclosed another round of selling. Strategy’s Monday weekly 8-K filing said it sold 3,588 BTC, a disclosure that has intensified scrutiny of how corporate structures and yield-style products interact with Bitcoin’s volatility.

Key takeaways

  • Lyn Alden said current Bitcoin sentiment is at the lowest point she has seen, and she expects a year that is “flat to up” rather than “flat to down.”
  • Alden emphasized Bitcoin must stand on core fundamentals—liquidity, permissionless transfer, and value storage—rather than new external catalysts.
  • While Alden sees a role for Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, she cautioned that BTC-linked products can encourage leverage.
  • On protocol change proposals, Alden urged caution and criticized the “existential issue” framing used to push faster rule modifications.

Why Alden thinks this cycle feels different

Alden contrasted the present mood with the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin fell as low as the mid–$16,000 range but investor enthusiasm remained comparatively steadier. In her view, the current drawdown has come alongside a fading of narratives and a market cycle that has leaned more heavily on corporate balance sheets and institutional-style structures.

She also flagged investor disappointment as a contributor to sentiment deterioration. Even so, Alden laid out a tempered base case: she does not expect Bitcoin to print a new all-time high within the year, while also acknowledging the asset’s historic volatility leaves room for a sharp upside move.

Her “hope” scenario is not a fast recovery to new highs, but the prevention of further sustained declines—what she described as a “lack of new bottoms in place.” Technically, she suggested the broader path could look more sideways to upward rather than trending lower, though she did not frame that as a guarantee.

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Strategy’s sale and the debate over leverage

Corporate adoption has been one of Bitcoin’s dominant themes in recent cycles, and Strategy has been central to that story. However, Alden said Strategy’s STRC preferred stock has increasingly become part of the market’s trading and positioning toolkit—especially for investors who want exposure to the company’s Bitcoin strategy without holding BTC directly or taking on the full volatility profile.

At the same time, she warned that the presence of higher-yielding BTC-linked products can unintentionally pull more leverage into the system. That dynamic matters because the more investors rely on layered exposure structures, the more sensitive performance can become when market conditions tighten—even if the underlying asset remains unchanged.

Her remarks land amid ongoing discussion about Strategy’s capital structure and the perceived risks tied to Bitcoin-backed preferred stock products. Alden characterized recent actions by Strategy to rebuild reserve coverage and add safeguards as reasonable reactions to market stress, but she also stressed that the long-term behavior of such products still ultimately depends on Bitcoin’s price action.

In practical terms, Alden’s framing suggests investors should distinguish between a product’s access benefits and the risk it may add to portfolio behavior during drawdowns. For traders, that translates into being more precise about the source of exposure—spot versus structured yield versus leverage—and how each tends to react when sentiment breaks.

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BIP-110 and Alden’s stance on faster protocol changes

Alden also addressed Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110 (BIP-110), a proposal aimed at reducing network spam by restricting data-heavy transactions, including those used for storing images. Her position was notably cautious: she said she is generally wary of efforts to change Bitcoin’s rules quickly, arguing that some proposals could increase network complexity or alter existing safeguards.

Rather than rejecting technical scrutiny outright, Alden said she would evaluate the arguments for and against protocol changes. Still, she criticized how some proposals are presented publicly, especially when they are framed as an “existential issue” for Bitcoin. In her view, that kind of language exaggerates the stakes and can amount to “incorrect marketing.”

The takeaway from her comments is not simply that all rule changes are bad, but that the way proposals are communicated can affect how investors and users interpret urgency—particularly during periods when sentiment is already fragile.

What to watch next

With sentiment at a cycle-low level in Alden’s assessment and Strategy’s selling now firmly in focus, traders and long-term holders will likely watch whether Bitcoin stabilizes without additional “new bottoms,” and whether BTC-linked structured products become a source of fragility—or a stabilizing bridge—during the next leg of market direction.

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Bitcoin’s Recovery Must Come From Fundamentals: Lyn Alden

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Bitcoin’s Recovery Must Come From Fundamentals: Lyn Alden

Bitcoin is facing its weakest sentiment cycle yet, according to Lyn Alden, a Bitcoin-focused macroeconomist who said the asset must stand on its own as Strategy disclosed a $216 million Bitcoin sale earlier this week.

“I don’t think there’s anything coming to save Bitcoin,” Alden said in a Tuesday interview with journalist and Bitcoin educator Natalie Brunell, saying the asset’s long-term success must come from its own fundamentals rather than external catalysts.

“The asset just has to survive on its own merits,” Alden said, pointing to Bitcoin’s underlying properties as a liquid, permissionless way to store and send value, instead of relying on a new source of demand.

Her comments come as institutional adoption and corporate treasury strategies have become features of Bitcoin’s latest market cycle. On Monday, Strategy’s weekly 8-K filing disclosed that it sold 3,588 BTC.

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Bitcoin sentiment falls to a cycle low

Alden said the current downturn feels different from the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin dropped to as low as $16,000 but enthusiasm among Bitcoin investors remained relatively strong.

“This is the lowest sentiment that I’ve personally seen on Bitcoin,” Alden said, pointing to a combination of fading narratives, a more corporate-driven market cycle and disappointment among investors.

Alden said her base case is that Bitcoin will not reach a new all-time high this year, though she acknowledged that the asset’s volatility leaves room for a sharp move higher.

“The base case that I would hope to see is just a lack of new bottoms in place” and a technical picture that points “flat to up rather than flat to down,” Alden said.

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STRC found demand, but leverage remains a risk

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has come under increased scrutiny during the downturn as investors reassess the risks around its Bitcoin-backed capital structure and preferred stock products.

Alden said Strategy’s STRC preferred stock has a role for investors who want exposure to the company’s Bitcoin strategy without holding the asset directly or taking on Bitcoin’s full volatility.

Source: Matthew Sigel

She noted that STRC has become the biggest preferred security in the market, but warned that higher-yielding BTC-linked products can encourage investors to take on additional leverage.

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Related: Strategy’s Bitcoin sale may give BTC a ‘durable bottom,’ Grayscale says

She added that Strategy’s recent steps to rebuild its reserve coverage and introduce additional safeguards were reasonable responses to the market stress, though the long-term performance of the product still depends on Bitcoin’s price action.

Alden pushes back on urgency around Bitcoin changes

Alden also discussed Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110 (BIP-110), which aims to reduce network spam by limiting data-heavy transactions, including those used to store images.

Alden said she is generally cautious about efforts to change Bitcoin’s rules quickly, warning that some proposals could make the network more complex or affect its existing safeguards.

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Source: Eric Balchunas

She said she would analyze the technical arguments for and against protocol changes, but criticized the way some proposals are presented to the public. Alden argued that framing a protocol change as an “existential issue” for Bitcoin exaggerates the stakes, calling that approach “incorrect marketing.”

Magazine: Has Bitcoin bottomed for this cycle? Analysts say ‘not yet’

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Stock Market Today: Dow Sells Off As Trump Declares Ceasefire ‘Over’

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Stock Market Today: Dow Sells Off As Trump Declares Ceasefire 'Over'

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major stock indexes traded sharply lower Wednesday after President Donald Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was “over.” Memory stocks Micron Technology (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK) were early losers on the stock market today, threatening to extend their sell-offs amid recent weakness in artificial intelligence stocks. Ahead of Wednesday’s opening bell, Dow…

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