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Remigration by stealth? The government’s earned settlement proposals

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Remigration by stealth? The government’s earned settlement proposals

James Bowes analyses the potential impact of the UK government’s proposed changes to its settlement schemes to both new migrants and migrants already in the UK.

The government’s consultation on its “earned settlement”  proposals, which would make it much harder for immigrants resident here for long periods to get Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), also known as “settlement”, closed today.  As written, and unlike previous immigration restrictions, these new rules won’t just affect new immigrants but will also affect over 2 million immigrants already living in the UK. These changes will force many legal immigrants to leave the country entirely.

What is changing?

Some changes will affect all applicants for ILR. The required English language level will increase from B1 to B2. The applicant will need to earn over £12,570 a year for at least three years. This latter change will make many people on a family visa or work dependant visa ineligible for ILR.

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While the baseline period to qualify for ILR has been announced as 10 years, many people will face a wait much longer than this. People with a work visa for a job skilled below a graduate level face a 15-year wait for ILR and refugees face a 20-year wait. People who have entered the country illegally, overstayed their visa or entered on a visitor visa face an even longer 30-year wait. People who have claimed benefits may face an even longer wait.

The qualifying period will remain at 5 years for family of British nationals, BNO visa holders and people working in a graduate level job that either pays over £50,270 or is an eligible public sector job (e.g. doctors, nurses, teachers). It will be shortened to 3 years for people earning over £125,140. Qualifying periods remain unchanged for global talent and innovator founder visa holders.

Who will be affected?

People with a settlement path visa living in the country at the end of 2024 by broad category

Roughly two thirds of people affected by the new rules will be here on a work visa or are the dependant of a work visa holder. Most of the others are on a family visa or are here for humanitarian reasons. Workers, their dependants and refugees will be most affected by the longer qualifying periods. However, everyone will be affected by the tougher language and salary rules.

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What will the changes mean for work visa holders?

Skilled worker visa grants (including health and care) from 2021 to 2024 split by skill level, visa grants for entry and switchers from a student visa only

Skilled worker visa grants (including health and care) for graduate-level jobs for entry in 2023. Split by whether the job is on a public sector pay scale or if not, by whether the median salary for the occupation was above £50,270 in Year Ending June 2023.

About half of main applicant work visa holders face a 15-year wait as they are working in a job skilled below graduate level. Most work visa holders working in graduate level jobs will qualify for ILR in 5 years as they are either working in an eligible public sector job or a job paying over £50,270.

However, most dependants of even high-paid workers will face at least a 10-year wait. This is because the dependant themselves will have to earn over £50,270 or work in a public sector job to qualify in 5 years. Most dependants are likely to face a 15-year wait as they are accompanying workers in non-graduate jobs.

Will the changes mean people have to leave the country?

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The new rules won’t simply mean a longer wait for ILR. They will mean many people don’t qualify for ILR at all and have to leave the country. Redundancy is much more likely during 15 years on a work visa than it is during 5 years.

Employers may be unwilling to pay the immigration skills charge for 15 years. People on a visa may be unable or unwilling to pay 15 years of visa fees and immigration health surcharge. Many care workers are graduates and so may not want to commit 15 years of their career to working in a care home.

Lower and higher going rates for top 10 non-payscaled high-skilled jobs to illustrate how different the two rates are. NB: Sales accounts and business development managers may be downgraded to medium-skilled.

People who have had a skilled worker visa continuously since before April 2024 currently only have to meet a lower salary threshold and occupational going rate when they renew their visa or apply for ILR. However, these lower rates are currently scheduled to expire in April 2030.

This is a major challenge as both the higher salary threshold (£41,700 compared to £31,300) and the higher occupational going rates are much higher than the lower rates. This means many people, in both graduate and non-graduate jobs, will need a large pay rise to remain in the country, unless the government decide to extend the lower salary threshold and going rates beyond April 2030.

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Another challenge for people renewing their visas will be the end of the Immigration Salary List from January 2027 (July 2028 for care workers), that allows a salary discount of 20% for shortage occupations. For visa renewals after this date, the discount to the salary threshold will only apply to visa renewals with the same employer and same occupation.

Skilled worker visa (including health and care) grants for entry and to student switchers 2021 to 2024 split by the skill level of the occupation if the proposed changes to skill classification in the Temporary Shortage List review are accepted. Jobs below graduate level only

When a medium-skilled occupation is reclassified as low-skilled, visa renewals are also only possible if they’re with the same employer and the same occupation. Visa renewal for the occupations downgraded to low-skilled in April 2024 will only be possible until April 2030.

Care workers are already considered a low-skilled occupation, only eligible for a visa due to their appearance on the soon to be abolished Immigration Salary List. A further 30 occupations may be reclassified as low-skilled following an updated evaluation of the skill level of jobs; it is unclear what transitional arrangements will exist for visa renewal in these occupations. If the changes are accepted, most people on the 15-year route to settlement would be working in jobs now considered low-skilled.

Unless the proposals are changed to address these challenges, many visa holders will be bound to one specific employer and occupation and only able to renew their visa if that employer is willing to pay a higher salary and visa fees. This will be a particular problem for people employed by exploitative or fraudulent employers. It may not even be possible to renew a visa for some low-skilled occupations.

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Conclusion

Over 2 million people will face much tougher requirements to remain in the country than they expected when moving here. The majority are people who came to work. Over half of work visa holders and most dependants face a longer wait to be eligible for Indefinite Leave to Remain. During this time, they will face ongoing visa fees and other charges, and their immigration status will remain insecure. Many will be forced to leave the country entirely. The government claims that this is not the objective – if that is true, then it will need to introduce far-reaching transitional protections.

By James Bowes, Space Management Assistant, Strategic Planning and Analytics, University of Warwick.

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Recreate The Bridgerton Bathtub Scene With Erotic Scent

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Recreate The Bridgerton Bathtub Scene With Erotic Scent

With fans already anticipating that bathtub scene between Benedict Bridgerton and Sophie Baek, sensual baths have quietly moved to the forefront of our collective imagination.

Set in a firelit room and framed as a moment of trust and vulnerability, the scene which appears in Julia Quinn’s Offer From a Gentleman and has already been teased in the Bridgerton season 4 part 2 trailer, taps into a growing appetite for intimacy that’s built through atmosphere rather than spectacle.

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With Valentine’s Day landing just days before the episode airs on February 26, it’s no surprise that many are thinking about how to recreate that same mood at home, and if you’re one of them, we have expert guidance on hand.

The most erotic candle scents for a sensual bath experience

Of course, when it comes to a sexy suds-y experience, scent is everything and with this in mind, we spoke with Archie MacDonald, Director of Highland Soap Co. to learn about which scents create the most romantic atmosphere.

He commented: “Fragrance is closely linked to emotion and memory, which is why scent can have such a strong effect on intimacy. It’s something people don’t always consciously think about, but whether you’re choosing a gift or simply trying to elevate an evening with your partner, scent plays a powerful role in shaping how a moment feels and how it’s remembered.”

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This makes perfect sense. The power of smell to bring us to a different place, mood, even person is incredible.

The scent expert added: “Rose and patchouli have long been associated with intimacy because of the way they work together on a sensory level. Rose absolute brings a soft, delicate floral note that feels calming and comforting, while patchouli adds an earthy warmth that grounds the scent and gives it depth. The result is a fragrance that feels uplifting and soothing at the same time, creating an atmosphere that’s relaxed and sensual.

“Whether it’s through a scented candle in the home or a soap used as part of a daily routine, incorporating rose and patchouli into everyday moments can help create a sense of closeness and connection without needing anything overly elaborate.”

Brb, need to make my bathroom look and smell romantic AF.

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Council by-election results from this week and forthcoming contests

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Council by-election result from yesterday and forthcoming contests

Bradford – Worth Valley 

Conservatives (51.7 per cent, -4.7 on 2024) Reform UK (26.1 per cent, +26.1) Labour (12.1 per cent, -19.6) Green Party (7.0 per cent, -1.0) Lib Dems (2.4 per cent, -1.6) Independent (0.8 per cent, +0.8)

Conservatives hold

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Pembrokeshire – Fishguard North East 

Plaid Cymru 253 (33.8 per cent, +33.8 on 2022) Lib Dems 135 (18.0 per cent, +18.0) Reform UK 95 (12.7 per cent, +12.7) Labour 83 (11.1 per cent, -47.9) Independent 79 (10.5 per cent, +10.5) Conservatives 69 (9.2 per cent, -31.9) Independent 35 (4.7 per cent, +4.7)

Plaid Cymru gain from Labour 

Peterborough – Fletton & Woodston

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Reform UK 565 (29.4 per cent, +29.4 on 2024) Green Party 529 (27.6 per cent, +16.2) Conservatives 419 (21.8 per cent, -11.8) Labour 323 (16.8 per cent, -31.2) Lib Dems 84 (4.4 per cent, -0.7)

Reform UK gain from Labour 

Forthcoming contests

February 19th

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  • Caerphilly – Van. (Labour held)
  • Leicester – Stoneygate. (Labour held)
  • Redcar & Cleveland – Zetland. (Labour held)

February 26th

  • Southampton – Shirley. (Lib Dem held)

March 5th

  • Braintree – Coggeshall. (Independent held)
  • Durham – Murton. (Reform UK held.)
  • Sevenoaks – Hextable. (Independent held.)
  • Stroud – Thrupp. (Green Party held)
  • Tamworth – Spital. (Labour held.)

March 12th

  • Cotswold – The Beeches. (Lib Dem held)
  • Liverpool – Aigburth. (Lib Dem held)
  • North Kesteven – Sleaford Westholme. (Lincolnshire Independents held)
  • Vale of White Horse – Abingdon Abbey Northcourt. (Green Party held.)
  • Westmorland & Furness – Penrith South. (Lib Dem held)

March 17th

  • Pembrokeshire – Milford Hakin. (Independent held)

March 26th

  • Vale of White Horse – Stanford. (Lib Dem held)

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Matt Goodwin wants to tell young girls when to have children

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Matt Goodwin wants to tell young girls when to have children

As we’ve reported, the Reform candidate in Gorton & Denton is the academic and establishment-insider Matt Goodwin. Goodwin is now attracting controversy because he wants to tell young women when to breed:

Lets be honest, this is creepy af from Matt Goodwin

Last week, Matt Goodwin stuck his foot in it when he suggested people who don’t have kids should be taxed more. As you can imagine, that went down like a lead balloon with infertile women. As Rachel Charlton-Dailey reported for the Canary:

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I can’t imagine the pain that this would cause to those who are struggling with fertility. On top of the emotional and physical toll this puts on you will be financial pressures. For those of us who are infertile, it sends one message. You are not good enough and deserve to be punished for failing as a woman.

I had an elective hysterectomy in 2017 after over a decade of pain. I chose my own health over a condition that was making me want to die, for the sake of one day having a baby. Many would call my decision selfish, but I frankly don’t give a fuck what people who would rather I were in pain think of me.

As much as I loathe a Handmaid’s Tale comparison, this is very apt here. In the novel, working-class women who are infertile are cast out of society. As they have no purpose in a society that values families over all else.

Goodwin was also criticised for the following:

Fertility

Matt Goodwin has looked at the birth rate problem and decided that the solution is to lecture young girls on when to breed.

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I myself have chosen not to have kids because of the absolute state of everything. I know for a fact I cannot afford a child, and even if I could, what fucking world would I be bringing them into?

And that’s the issue.

Reform’s policies will do nothing to improve affordability, and without that change, people won’t be able to afford to have children.

Reform also want to reintroduce the two child benefit cap to save people 4p per pint. Nothing screams stimulating breeding in the UK more than a policy that caps state support.

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Reform leader Nigel Farage has also voiced creepy opinions on this topic. Back in 2014, when Farage was ranting about how women who take maternity leave are less valuable, he commented:

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Maybe it’s because I’ve gotten so many women pregnant over the years that I have a different view.

That gives this new push by Matt Goodwin an even creepier spin.

Support women, get more babies

It’s becoming very clear that Reform have no policies in place to actually stimulate population growth.

Rather than weirdly going into schools and telling young girls to procreate, why don’t they actually give them a reason to? Stop supporting the two child benefit cap – which is keeping so many kids in poverty – sort out public services, and fix the fucking education system.

But no, just creepy platitudes and uninformed comments from another Reform misogynist, Matt Goodwin.

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leftists need to stop making excuses for Chomsky

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leftists need to stop making excuses for Chomsky

Since the latest release of the Epstein files, a media circus has ensued over the political and business figures connected to convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein. The giddy fervour from some corners has been evident as people work their way through a huge number of files featuring the most powerful and elite people we know.

In a world where sexual violence is much more commonplace than we might like to admit, it is unsurprising that Epstein and his cabal of violent predators are the focus, and not the people they tortured and abused. Academic Harsha Walia had a stark and insightful summary of the situation:

Sexual violence, especially of children, is not an otherwise perverse symptom of elite rule or empire – it is literally at the CENTER of how violence and domination is structured around the world. We cannot keep treating sexual violence as a “private” issue, or as “divisive” to movements, or weaponize it to settle other political scores.

It is how power reverberates and is reproduced.

Sexual violence – especially against children – is not an aberration in our societies. It is not exclusively the preserve of the elite or powerful. It is a function at the very core of neoliberal racial capitalism. Epstein was a well-documented white supremacist and Zionist, and that is at the heart of how he and his fellow paedophiles operated.

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So why is it that leftists have spent considerable time and energy since the latest release of the files defending prominent fellow leftists who allied themselves with Epstein?

Epstein files show the misogynist rot within the left

One of the most prominent leftist names mentioned in the files is that of the revered Noam Chomsky. His work has been crucial for leftists, but the academic has long known to have been friends with Epstein. Fellow academic Chris Knight has had pieces claiming to explain the reasons behind the friendship published in both CounterPunch and Novara Media.

The latter publication ran the story with the headline:

There Are Two Noam Chomskys. The One You Love, and the One That Was Friends With Jeffrey Epstein

Along with the tagline:

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Not a straightforward guy.

The CounterPunch article and the one posted on Novara are similar versions of effectively the same piece.

In the version published a few days later on Novara, Knight admits:

Emails released last month by the US Department of Justice, however, now make it difficult to respect Chomsky’s views on anything at all.

How generous. By Knight’s own admission:

The emails even reveal that shortly before Epstein’s arrest and death, in July and August 2019, Chomsky was still intending to be interviewed for a documentary that Epstein was making. It seems Chomsky remained loyal to his cherished “friend” right until the end.

Chomsky was a loyal and steadfast friend of Epstein. Epstein was a known serial child rapist, child trafficker, and overseer of one of the most brutal and extensive grooming gangs in modern times. The details of such horrific crimes were an open secret even before the release of the files. Now that the files have been released, Chomsky’s wife has described their close friendship with the dead paedophile as part of “serious errors in judgement.”

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Bizarre response

In both pieces, Knight muses on why Chomsky would have associated with Epstein. He makes it clear that Chomsky has a reputation for associating with people he should ostensibly have opposed – CIA directors, war hawks, and other reprehensible people. Knight maintains that:

Chomsky was at no point the perfectly principled radical intellectual admired by so many of his followers. If he had been, he would have resigned from MIT long ago. Yet, had he done so, he would never have come to know the US military establishment from the inside in a way that enabled him to become that establishment’s most knowledgeable and assured critic.

Who needs Chomsky to be perfect? Perfection is a far cry from a close personal friendship with a notorious paedophile and sex trafficker. Chomsky didn’t step down from MIT, or stop associating with rabid Zionists not as some kind of intellectual checkmate, but because he didn’t want to.

Society is far too willing to dismiss the experiences of those living at the sharp end of racial capitalism as ‘identity politics.’ But, we’re supposed to believe Chomsky needed to pal around with some of the most morally bankrupt people for research purposes? Please.

He knew exactly what he was doing. There is no duality or cognitive dissonance in Chomsky’s behaviour. He knew exactly what was doing, and he did it for decades. How could one of the most pre-eminent researchers not know the extent of Epstein’s crimes? Are we supposed to accept that he’s a genius researcher who can’t operate a simple Google search on the background of one of his best friends?

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Business as usual

Knight’s passionate defence of Epstein is an obscene rehabilitation, a loving re-casting of Chomsky as somehow duped, tricked, or seduced. Knight concludes that:

It would be foolish to stop learning from his writings. It would be equally foolish to gloss over his mistakes. Instead of deciding whether to cancel or exalt him as an individual, I suggest we prioritise developing what he advocates, however hypocritically: a revolutionary politics for our times.

Since the latest release of the Epstein files, who exactly has demanded we “stop learning” from Chomsky? In fact, what is actually happening is that people are parsing through a release of files that deliberately exposes and intimidates victims and survivors of Epstein.

The choice is not whether to accept or reject Chomsky, whether to rehabilitate or castigate him. Instead, the choice facing us is a moral one: do we infantilise and clean up Chomsky’s actions, or do we accept that he repeatedly and knowingly chose to not only associate with, but loved a renowned pedophile and sex trafficker?

It is no choice at all.

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I was raped as a child. Like many others who have been sexually abused, every time rape is discussed in the media, there are many all too willing to degrade the horror of abuse and defend those around the abusers. As such, the many attempts at rehabilitation of those implicated alongside Epstein in any way, whether Chomsky or anyone else, feel like an attempt to defend the rape that so many of us have had to come to terms with.

Knight – or someone from his team – offered a version of his above articles to the Canary. We immediately recognised that to publish such a thing would not only violate all of our values, it would also denigrate the experiences of victims and survivors. Shame on CounterPunch and Novara for giving a platform to the reprehensible attempt to clean up Chomsky’s image or work.

Featured image via the Canary

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Fetterman on ICE, Israel and identifying as a Democrat | The Conversation

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Fetterman on ICE, Israel and identifying as a Democrat | The Conversation

Fetterman on ICE, Israel and identifying as a Democrat | The Conversation

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Israel used thermal WMD in Gaza that made thousands ‘evaporate’

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Israel used thermal WMD in Gaza that made thousands 'evaporate'

Israel’s genocidal occupation military used thermal and thermobaric weapons on civilians in Gaza that ‘evaporated’ thousands of people, according to analysis by Al Jazeera.

Israel evaporated thousands of people

The broadcaster’s investigation, ‘The Rest of the Story’, based on forensic data analysis rather than estimates, found that 2,842 Palestinians were “evaporated” by the mostly US-made weapons. Civil Defence spokesman Mahmoud Basal described the “method of elimination” used by rescuers at strike sites. This compared known numbers of people inside a targeted building with their remains recovered afterwards:

If a family tells us there were five people inside, and we only recover three intact bodies, we only classify the remaining two as ‘evaporated’ after an exhaustive search yields nothing but biological traces, citing blood spray or small fragments such as skull fragments.

Basal emphasised that classification occurs only after thorough searches of rubble, hospitals, and morgues produce no identifiable remains. Given Israel’s blockade of bulldozers and other clearance equipment, it is likely that many more such deaths remain unclassified.

Military experts interviewed by Al Jazeera said that the occupation uses thermobaric and thermal weapons to obliterate the population across a wide area. These “vacuum” or “aerosol” bombs disperse a cloud of flammable vapour that is then ignited into an enormous explosion that produces extreme heat and a massive blast wave. Horrifying footage of Israel using such a weapon was captured in 2025:

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Shocking

The experts told the station that Israel modifies the bombs it uses to make them even more devastating:

To prolong the burning time, powders of aluminum, magnesium and titanium are added to the chemical mixture…this raises explosion temperatures to between 2,500 and 3,000 degrees Celsius.

Crematoria typically use temperatures of 850-1150 Celsius to incinerate bodies.

Israel has murdered around 700,000 Palestinian civilians in Gaza. This figure has been disputed by Israeli propagandists, but tallies with US president Donald Trump’s statement that around 1.5 million people remain in Gaza that must be removed for his notorious ‘peace’ plan. Gaza’s pre-genocide population was around 2.2-2.3m.

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Press freedom org accused of bowing to Israel

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Press freedom org accused of bowing to Israel

According to whistleblowers who spoke to Electronic Intifada (EI), press freedom organisation the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) binned its latest ‘Impunity Index’ because Israel was going to top the rankings.

On its ‘About us’ page, the CPJ says that it exists to:

defend the right of journalists to report the news safely and without fear of reprisal… reports on violations in repressive countries, conflict zones, and established democracies alike… [and] works with other organizations to ensure that justice prevails when journalists are imprisoned or killed.

Or maybe not, in this case.

Press freedom, except when we say

The CPJ Impunity Index has been published annually since 2008 and is a tool regularly used by the United Nations and human rights groups. It assesses the deliberate killing of journalists in which the killers are not punished. Israel already ranked second in the 2024 index, which measured killings in 2023 and covered only three months of its Gaza genocide.

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The 2025 Index would have put Israel way ahead of any other nation – and, as The Electronic Intifada notes, it would have stayed there for years, spooking CPJ boss Jodie Ginsberg:

Since the Impunity Index usually covers a timeframe of 10 years, Israel would have been ranked near the top, if not number one, for many years to come,” the whistleblowers argue.

They allege that Ginsberg “simply couldn’t afford the heat she would get every year from the board, the pro-Israel donors and from Israel itself and its allies.”

CPJ have denied that pressure from donors and board members played a role in the decision.

Israel has murdered hundreds of journalists in Gaza since the beginning of the genocide, along with – intentionally – more than 700 of their family members. It has also started targeting journalists in Lebanon. This is surely a reason to trumpet its impunity more loudly than ever.

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Instead, Israel even gets impunity for its impunity.

Featured image via the Canary

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George Pickering: The myth inside Manchesterism as a borrowed Burnham ‘cure-all’

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Callum Price: Why, when it comes to markets, does Andy want to 'burn'em' to the ground?

George Pickering is a researcher at the think tank Bright Blue. He holds a doctorate in Economic History from the University of Oxford.

The recent setback to Andy Burnham’s parliamentary ambitions seems to have done little to diminish expectations that he could be the man to finally end the troubled premiership of Keir Starmer.

Even after having been blocked from running in the Gorton and Denton by-election, the Greater Manchester Mayor is still amongst the bookies’ favourites to become the next Labour leader. Indeed, his rejection of Starmer’s offer of a safe Labour seat in 2027 suggests that Burnham still expects to be able to return to Parliament and challenge Starmer long before the next general election.

Burnham offered some clues as to what his agenda as Prime Minister might be in a speech he recently delivered to the IFS and the UCL Policy Lab. There, Burnham appeared to lament Britain’s wince-making national debt, describing the country as “in hock to the bond markets.” This would all be very well if Burnham meant to tackle the debt by the obvious means of restraining government spending. However, proposing spending cuts in any area – except, perhaps, defence – would be unlikely to endear him to the Labour rank-and-file.

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Instead, Burnham argued that Britain should follow the example of Manchester’s supposedly miraculous recent economic growth which he attributed to “roll[ing] back the 1980s and [taking] more local public control over the essential drivers of the economy, such as housing, utilities, transport and education.”

However, it is far from clear that “Manchesterism,” as Burnham has called his programme, would really be the miracle cure to Britain’s economic woes. For one thing, it seems probable that the official figures suggesting exceptional productivity growth in Manchester have overestimated the number of new professional jobs in the city, and fail to account for the city’s lack of wage growth, except amongst those benefitting from recent hikes in the minimum wage.

Burnham’s proposals also hardly seem novel enough to be considered their own distinctive programme deserving its own special soubriquet. It is difficult to imagine any centre-left figure who would not echo Burnham’s wearily predictable denouncement of austerity, Brexit, deregulation and privatisation as “the four horsemen of Britain’s apocalypse.” Nor is it clear how increasing state control of housing, utilities, transport and education – hardly bastions of unregulated enterprise – would apply the needed smelling salts to Britain’s torpid private economy.

By far the most objectionable aspect of Burnham’s agenda, however, is the name he has chosen for it. As the Mayor of Greater Manchester must be aware, the name ‘Manchesterism’ is already associated with the rich history of an older political movement hailing from that city, one which embodied principles entirely opposite to Burnham’s own.

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Benjamin Disraeli coined the phrase ‘the Manchester School’ in 1848 to describe an influential faction of radical liberals led by two Manchester-based industrialists: Richard Cobden and John Bright. These two men are best remembered today for having founded the Anti-Corn Law League in 1839, which indefatigably lobbied against the most significant protectionist tariffs of their day, the so-called Corn Laws.

The Corn Laws, which restricted the importation of all cereal grains, had been enacted in 1815 in a transparent attempt to boost the agricultural incomes of the old, aristocratic ‘landed interest’. The effect of these regulations was to raise food prices to unbearable heights and to burden British businesses with higher wage bills and restricted options for trade. When the Irish Potato Famine exposed the full effects of these restrictions on the importation of food, the Manchester Liberals finally persuaded Sir Robert Peel to abolish the Corn Laws in 1846, laying the foundations for the explosive growth of the British economy in the second half of the nineteenth century.

Nor was Manchesterism a single-issue coalition. Cobden, Bright and their followers were principled liberals, inspired by the writings of Adam Smith and Frédéric Bastiat. They were outspoken not only in their advocacy of free trade abroad, but also of free markets at home, free speech, and limited government in general; ideas anathema to most modern centre-leftists such as Burnham, and indeed to many of the policymakers of all parties who can claim credit for the state of Britain today, 180 years after the abolition of the Corn Laws.

If Andy Burnham sincerely wished to revitalise Britain’s economy, rather than merely managing its continued decline, he would do well to emulate the true Manchesterism of Cobden and Bright, rather than merely appropriating its name for his own uninspiring agenda.

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Shapiro grows his donor network ahead of 2028

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Shapiro grows his donor network ahead of 2028

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is using his book tour and 2026 reelection campaign to further build out a national fundraising network that could prove quite useful in a potential 2028 run.

The governor held a fundraising event over lunch while visiting Massachusetts for his book tour last month, two people familiar with the planning for it confirmed — making it at least the third fundraiser he attended in the last year in the deep-blue state with deep-pocketed donors who have long bankrolled presidential contenders. One of the others was held at the home of Jewish philanthropist and New England Patriots president Jonathan Kraft in April, details of which have not previously been reported. Shapiro attended another on Nantucket, a summer fundraising mecca, in July, according to an attendee and invitations obtained by POLITICO.

They add to an extensive list of networking events for the possible White House aspirant who’s long been a prolific fundraiser within and beyond Pennsylvania.

He amassed $23 million in 2025 with the help of $2.5 million from former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg; $1 million from a Soros family PAC, $500,000 from James and Kathryn Murdoch, the left-leaning son and daughter in law of Rupert Murdoch; and over $120,000 from Kraft and his father, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. That’s helped him build a $30 million war chest to unleash this year against his likely GOP opponent, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who raised nearly $1.5 million last year and had $1 million in the bank to start 2026.

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His book tour side-hustle comes as several of Shapiro’s would-be rivals for the Democratic nomination in 2028 take donor meetings across the country as they navigate their own reelection bids and start laying the groundwork for White House runs.

Shapiro routinely dismisses talk of 2028 in public, keeping a laser focus on his reelection bid and on his efforts to help Democrats down the ballot.

“No one should be looking past these midterms,” the governor recently told reporters in Washington, D.C., who were peppering him with hypotheticals.

Sources say he is just as disciplined behind closed doors: Shapiro has kept his pitch focused on his leadership in purple Pennsylvania and how Democrats should be centering pocketbook issues in the midterms, while declining to engage with questions about his future beyond 2026, according to two people who attended donor events with Shapiro last year.

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“The smartest thing Shapiro and other folks on the ballot in 2026 can do right now is say ‘I’m running for reelection right now and I’m in the middle of the fight.’ [It] makes ‘26 a nice little audition for their eventual 2028 runs,” said Alex Hoffman, a Democratic strategist and donor adviser.

His out-of-state networking is already paying off. Shapiro raked in over $700,000 from prominent donors in Massachusetts alone in 2025, including $260,000 from construction magnate John Fish and $50,000 from telecommunications tycoon Robert Hale. He also hauled in cash from Hollywood bigwigs and tech titans, including $100,000 from Sony film executive Tom Rothman and $200,000 from Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen.

But the governor’s expansive donor pool is also drawing scrutiny. Garrity has called on Shapiro to return over $2 million his campaign has taken over the years from billionaire LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, who is referenced repeatedly in the Jeffrey Epstein files. Hoffman gave $500,000 to Shapiro last year. Shapiro also received $50,000 from New York Giants co-owner Steve Tisch, who is also mentioned in the Epstein files, as is Robert Kraft. Both Hoffman and Tisch have issued statements distancing themselves from the late convict.

“Stacy Garrity should stop playing politics with the Epstein files. Donald Trump is mentioned in the files over 5,000 times. Is she going to ask him to rescind his endorsement?” Shapiro spokesperson Manuel Bonder said in a statement. Bonder declined comment on the governor’s fundraisers.

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He’ll need to keep building out that network. Shapiro has benefited from what longtime Pennsylvania Democratic strategist Neil Oxman described as “institutional donors” in the state who’ve given to successive Democratic governors. But of “the thousands of people who raise money nationally, he probably knows a fraction of them. He has some [national] recognition, but he’s not Gavin Newsom. He’s not the Clintons.”

Shapiro also won’t be able to use the gobs of money he’s raised for his state campaign account to fund a run for federal office, leaving him at an initial disadvantage against other potential 2028ers who are already squirreling away millions of dollars into federal leadership committees, super PACs and congressional campaign accounts that can be converted when the time comes.

“That’s why sometimes it’s hard to run for office when you have to run for another office,” Oxman said.

A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.

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British Muslims feel unsafe, says census

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British Muslims feel unsafe, says census

Just 51.9% of British Muslims say they strongly feel they belong in the UK. This marks a dramatic fall from the 93% reported in a 2016 Ipsos MORI survey. The new figures come from one of the largest ever socio-economic studies of British Muslims.

British Muslims feeling increasingly unsafe

A respondent to the Muslim Census survey said:

This is my country but I am told I’m not welcome. I fear for my family and friends who are Muslim.

The findings, titled The Crisis of Belonging, were published by Muslim Census survey in partnership with Islamic Relief UK and the National Zakat Foundation. They reveal a community grappling with rising Islamophobia, political hostility, and a growing sense of alienation. And this is the case even among those born and raised in Britain:

I was born and educated in the UK, I have over 20 years experience as a qualified solicitor. I have seen attitudes towards Muslims deteriorate dramatically and this has been on a steady decline in the last few years.

Respondents repeatedly describe a country that feels increasingly hostile. They cite media, political rhetoric, and the rise of the far right as driving feelings of fear, exclusion, and insecurity. Many say they no longer feel safe identifying as Muslim in public:

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I grew up with racism and Islamophobia back in the 80s. Then life felt good. I felt part of the fabric of society. My contributions felt valued and impactful. Now I do not admit to being from the UK, because the UK government and many people in power and the media make me feel unwanted and less than. Instead I say I’m from Liverpool. The only place in the UK I do feel part of and valued within.

Others speak openly of considering emigration or having a “Plan B” should conditions worsen:

I was born here but no longer feel safe here as a Muslim and am looking to move abroad if I can.

One person said:

I was born and brought up here and have lived a mainstream British life… I have always felt totally British. I feel less so in this decade and do daydream about a Plan B elsewhere.

Another described:

We are seriously considering our plans to leave the UK should a more right-wing government come into power.

Financial hardship

Alongside this erosion of belonging, the census survey of 4,800 British Muslims exposes widespread but largely hidden financial hardship. This often gets masked by misleading income figures and compounded by stigma around seeking help.

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The research reveals:

  • 29.4% struggled to pay at least one household bill in the past year.
  • 43% relied on borrowing, including credit cards or family loans, to meet the cost of living.
  • 1 in 12 missed meals due to financial difficulty, including 6% of full-time workers.
  • Among Black African Muslims, 1 in 5 report going hungry in the past year.

Despite such documented hardship, the uptake of support is strikingly low:

  • 63% of those who went hungry did not use food banks this past year.
  • When people sought help, they turned first to family or local councils, with just 4.2% using Zakat organisations.
  • Only 2% of respondents requested Zakat or emergency charitable support in the past year.

Zakat is a compulsory act of worship in Islam, one of the five pillars of the faith. It requires Muslims who possess wealth above a certain threshold (called the Nisab) to donate a portion (typically 2.5%) of their qualifying wealth to those eligible to receive it.

The survey identifies lack of awareness and discomfort from respondents in asking for help as major barriers to accessing support. And yet, whilst poverty and a need for support is widespread, generosity remains exceptionally high. 80.7% of respondents still paid their Zakat this past year.

Rebuilding trust and belonging

As chief executive of the National Zakat Foundation, Dr Sohail Hanif has real clarity on the challenging circumstances facing British Muslims:

I travel across the country every week and meet people from many different backgrounds, faiths, and walks of life. What’s clear in the 2026 Muslim Census survey is a shared sense of uncertainty and a feeling that trust between communities has weakened in recent years.

This isn’t something felt just by Muslims, but across communities more broadly. Rebuilding trust and strengthening British Muslims’ sense of belonging in the UK will take time and effort, but it’s essential if communities are to feel connected, confident, and hopeful about the future.

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The Muslim Census survey signals a growing recognition across the sector that data must drive decision-making and that understanding the realities of British Muslims is not just an academic exercise, but a prerequisite for effective charitable intervention, community support, and advocacy.

The survey concludes that British Muslims are not a community in crisis. Rather, the community is experiencing hidden need, masked by misleading income figures and divisive narratives in the media and British politics.

Featured image via the Canary

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