Robinhood Chain surge boosts ETH price

The successful launch of the layer-2 network Robinhood Chain has boosted investor sentiment around Ethereum. The newly launched blockchain uses ETH as its native gas token and around $141 million in ETH has already been bridged to the chain.

More than half a million wallets holding ETH are now on the network, which surged past the Ethereum L1 and rival L2 Base over the past 24 hours, with DEX volumes of $877.56 million. The L2 is an offshoot of TradFi trading platform Robinhood, which offers tokenized stocks to customers in 120 countries, further strengthening the EVM-compatible ecosystem.

L2s have been seen by many pundits as bearish for Ethereum as they take activity away from the L1 without returning much in the way of transaction fees. However even some former ETH bears are now reassessing that thesis. Influencer Ansem wrote:

“lighter and robinhood L2s are sneakily best setup for an eth bull thesis in a very long time.”

Mike Dudas from 6th Man Ventures added that “robinhood chain is the single most bullish thing i’ve seen in eth-land in years.”

Robinhood surges in 24 hour DEX volume (DeFi Llama)

Ethereum is also getting a boost from its 47% market share of Real World Assets, according to Rwa.xyz data. Leon Waidmann, head of Research at Lisk, noted the Total Value Locked (TVL) on Ethereum of $260 billion has surpassed the $210 billion market cap of Ether. Waidmann said this distortion signals that “ETH is underpriced,” as the current relative valuation is lower than in the 2022 bear market.

UK politicians mull permanent crypto donation ban in wake of Nigel Farage scandal

Members of the UK’s ruling Labour party are considering a total ban on digital asset donations in response to Nigel Farage’s resignation from Parliament and the potential influence crypto billionaires had on his policies.

The Guardian reported Thursday that Labour MPs have proposed that a moratorium on crypto donations enacted in March be made permanent after it was revealed that the Reform leader personally accepted millions of British pounds in what he called “gifts” from industry figures.

Farage sensationally resigned from Parliament last week in an attempt to get ahead of an investigation into the donations by the UK’s parliamentary standards commissioner.

“Let me be absolutely clear: I have done nothing wrong,” said Farage in an X livestream. “I have not broken the law in any way at all. I have not misused public money.” 

The major parties are refusing to field candidates against him in the upcoming by-election, with his most formidable political opponent the comedy character Count Binface, who has received support from Reform’s critics.

US Bitcoin reserve hits snag as federal agencies debate for control: Bloomberg

The Trump administration’s push to establish a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has reportedly hit a roadblock, as the Commerce and Treasury departments are at odds over how the reserve should be structured and which agency should have primary oversight of the holdings.

US President Donald Trump’s March 2025 executive order called for the SBR to be housed inside the Treasury Department, while other agencies would assist with asset seizures to build the reserve. 

However, concerns have emerged over whether the Treasury has the legal authority to manage the Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, partly because of its volatility, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. 

The Commerce Department has emerged as a contender to oversee the reserve, the sources said. The Department of Justice is also reportedly working with the departments to determine legally available options, they added.

Wyden urges Senate leaders to keep dev protections in crypto bill

US Democratic Senator Ron Wyden has urged Senate leaders to ensure that crypto developer protections stay in the crypto market structure legislation.

Wyden told Senate Minority Leader John Thune and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer in a letter to preserve a section of the CLARITY Act known as the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA).

“Developers who make and release software that allows people to manage their own digital assets — and, critically, where the developer does not control user assets — should not be treated as money transmitters solely because they create or publish software,” Wyden wrote.

The letter comes after certain groups and lawmakers opposed the BRCA. A group of law enforcement organizations and a coalition of Catholic organizations last month argued it could create gaps in the oversight of illicit activity.

Senate leaders are pushing for the bill to be passed this month.

Trump says he became ‘a big crypto guy’ partly for politics

US President Donald Trump says he got involved in crypto “for politics” and became pro-crypto after seeing how much money the industry was making.

At a press conference in the Oval Office on Monday to announce “Trump Accounts,” an investment account for children under 18, Trump was asked whether the accounts would allow for Bitcoin (BTC).

“I’ve become a big crypto guy only for one reason: If we don’t have it, China’s going to have it,” Trump answered. “I’m a fan, I wasn’t initially, I didn’t know much about it, but, for some of my first term, I wasn’t much involved, and I watched it grow, and it’s a huge industry.”

“I got involved in it a little bit for politics,” Trump added. “I realized there are a lot of people that love crypto.”

In his first term, Trump said he was “not a fan” of crypto and called Bitcoin “a scam.” Since then, he and his family have built deep business interests in crypto, and Trump has faced criticism for his pro-crypto stance and for making more money out of crypto in 2025 than any of the listed exchanges or miners.

Five senators have called for committee hearings to investigate Trump’s policies potentially being influenced by crypto funding from United Arab Emirates-linked and other entities.

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $63,762, Ether (ETH) at $1800 and XRP (XRP) is at $1.08. The total market cap is at $2.2 trillion according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin winners of the week are DeXe (DEXE) with a 94% gain, Pyth Network (PYTH) at 19%%, and Arbitrum (ARB) at 15%.

The top three altcoin losers of the week are Bonk (BONK) which lost 19%, Jupiter (JUP) on -18% and Pi (PI) at -16%.

Top Prediction of the Week

Bitcoin nearing late stages of bear market: Jamie Coutts, Real Vision

Bitcoin could be entering the latter stages of the bear market, with downside momentum beginning to slow down, according to Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts.

“I think we’re getting through most of the bear market action. It’s still not over, clearly. But you know, I think we’re approaching at least the second half,” Coutts said during an interview on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets.

He noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has declined by about 50% compared with the previous market cycle, suggesting the current downturn may be less severe than previous bear markets.

Coutts added that he’s not comfortable making predictions for a $1 million Bitcoin price in 2030 due to too many variables. However he said:

“I’m more comfortable with a forecast in the next sort of two to three years that Bitcoin should get to sort of $200,000 to 250,000.”

Top FUD of the Week

Strategy’s Saylor needs clarity in BTC pivot message to convince investors

Standard Charter’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, believes recent Strategy sale of $216 million worth of Bitcoin to pay for STRC dividends — and Michael Saylor’s manner of communicating decisions — “are muddying the waters for BTC near-term.”

“We think effective communication of MSTR’s new strategy (using BTC to back STRC) is key to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely; this should in turn support BTC prices,” Kendrick wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “Indeed, if this signalling proves effective, it should remove the need for MSTR to actually sell any BTC by supporting STRC’s price,” he said.

Kendrick said that Strategy’s long-held “never sell” approach had limited what the company could with its industry-biggest digital asset treasury.

“The problem with the ‘never sell’ approach is that it limits what MSTR’s BTC holdings can do — or, perhaps more importantly, what they are perceived to be doing,” the StanChart analyst said.

Kalshi appeals NY court’s rejection of bid to block state gambling law enforcement

Kalshi is appealing a New York federal judge’s rejection of its bid to block officials at the New York State Gaming Commission from enforcing local laws against its sports-related event contracts. 

The appeal escalates a growing legal fight over whether sports prediction markets are federally regulated derivatives or state-regulated gambling products. This question has already split courts across the United States.

Judge Analisa Torres rejected that argument and found that New York gambling laws, as applied to Kalshi’s sports-event contracts, were not preempted by the US Commodity Exchange Act. The court said Kalshi had not made a “clear or substantial showing” that it was likely to succeed on the merits.

“Major loss for Kalshi in the nation’s financial capital, with likely knock-on effects in other cases (esp. Connecticut and other SDNY lawsuits),” wrote lawyer Daniel Wallach.

Trader loses $1M after signing phishing token approval

A crypto user lost nearly $1 million on Wednesday after signing a phishing token approval on Ethereum, according to onchain data.

A Scam Sniffer alert on Thursday revealed a victim lost 999,999 USDt (USDT) to an Ethereum phishing token approval scam. Scammers first tried draining a rounded $1 million via multicalls but failed due to insufficient funds, then succeeded seconds later by pulling the exact balance in follow-up transfers.

“The script recalculated and pulled the exact remaining balance,” Scam Sniffer said.

Social engineering via phishing token approvals has become a common crypto scam tactic. Phishing losses totaled $723 million across 248 incidents in 2025, according to CertiK. Scammers trick a victim into giving a malicious actor access to their wallet, taking the form of an innocuous-seeming transaction. 

The victim falsely believes that clicking “approve” will only initiate a minor task, but malicious links give the attacker approval to drain funds from the wallet. 

Michael Saylor, Strategy’s founder and chairman, used social media Sunday to refine how investors should interpret his company’s latest Bitcoin-related messaging. In a post built around a chart from Saylortracker.com, he said the “orange dots” indicate only part of the story—an apparent attempt to frame what markets may be inferring from his prior signals.

That clarification comes as Strategy has shifted from its long-running “never sell Bitcoin” narrative to a more flexible approach. The company has disclosed Bitcoin sales used to support dividends for holders of its STRC preferred stock and to bolster its U.S. dollar reserves. For investors, the immediate question is whether Strategy’s communications reduce uncertainty around the likelihood of further large-scale selling that could weigh on Bitcoin sentiment.

Key takeaways

• Strategy’s recent SEC filing shows it sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin earlier this month, reducing holdings to 843,775 BTC.
• Saylor’s Sunday post—linking “orange dots” to only part of the picture—adds another layer to how traders interpret Strategy’s Bitcoin signaling.
• Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick argues Strategy’s messaging has become “muddy” for Bitcoin near-term, mainly because it complicates expectations around selling.
• Kendrick believes better communication could reassure markets enough that Strategy may not need to sell more Bitcoin to support STRC.
• Strategy’s common shares and STRC preferred shares have both faced pressure over the past year, with the company scheduled to report earnings on July 30.

Saylor’s new “signal” and what it may change

Saylor’s Sunday message, posted alongside a chart from Saylortracker.com, referenced “orange dots” that, he said, “tell only part of the story.” According to the post, the chart is meant to contextualize Strategy’s Bitcoin-related actions and announcements that have historically followed similar social media updates.

In prior cycles, Saylor’s public posts have often been followed by announcements of Strategy Bitcoin purchases—typically the next day. This time, however, the context is different: the market is already reacting to evidence that Strategy is willing to sell Bitcoin when required for funding priorities tied to its preferred equity structure and cash management.

From “never sell” to monetization for dividends and reserves

In recent weeks, Strategy has moved away from a strict “never sell Bitcoin” stance. The company has indicated that selling may be necessary to fund dividends for holders of its STRC preferred stock and to replenish cash reserves.

Earlier this month, Strategy sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin, according to a July 6 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing states that the sale reduced Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 843,775 tokens. Alongside that disclosure, Strategy also earlier laid out a capital framework that authorizes Bitcoin sales as a mechanism to support dividends.

Just days before Sunday’s post, Strategy increased its annual dividend rate on STRC preferred stock to 12% and disclosed that its U.S. dollar reserve had grown to $2.55 billion. Taken together, those changes suggest Strategy is attempting to create a more repeatable funding path for shareholders—one that may involve Bitcoin monetization rather than treating holdings as purely “hold forever” collateral.

Standard Chartered: communications are “muddying the waters”

Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick argued that Strategy’s recent actions—and the way they are being communicated—could be undermining confidence in Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. In a note to clients released on Friday, Kendrick said Strategy’s updated approach is “muddying the waters for BTC near-term.”

Kendrick’s central point is about signaling credibility. He suggested that investors need clarity on how Strategy intends to use Bitcoin to back its STRC preferred stock without implying frequent or “wholesale” selling of BTC. He wrote that effective communication of the new strategy—using Bitcoin to back STRC—is important to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely, which he said should support Bitcoin prices.

He also made a specific conditional argument: if the messaging works and is interpreted as credible by markets, it could reduce the need for Strategy to actually sell additional Bitcoin by supporting STRC’s price dynamics.

Why the “never sell” narrative is harder to maintain

According to Kendrick, the company’s earlier “never sell” posture limited how its Bitcoin holdings could be used—both operationally and in terms of how the market perceives their purpose. He said the main issue is that “never sell” frames BTC holdings as something the company cannot put to broader financial use, making it harder for investors to interpret changes when they eventually occur.

Kendrick noted that Strategy has sold Bitcoin twice and has announced a BTC monetization program, implying the communications have been shifting for “several months” rather than just recently. For traders, this sequence matters: once markets begin to price in monetization as a regular tool for funding, the burden shifts to management messaging to explain when sales are likely versus when holdings will remain intact.

Even so, Kendrick expects the messaging—and therefore market signaling—will improve, and he anticipates that the clearer communication will improve the outlook for Bitcoin. Standard Chartered continues to maintain a $100,000 year-end forecast for Bitcoin, per the analyst’s note.

Equity pressure ahead of earnings

Strategy’s equity markets have not reflected a smooth acceptance of the narrative shift. Investors who bought into the “Strategy story” have faced losses over the past year, and the preferred stock and common stock structures have both shown stress.

The STRC preferred shares were originally designed to hold a par value of $100, but shareholders saw that par value fall last month to the lowest level since the preferred stock was introduced a year ago. Meanwhile, Strategy’s common shares—trading under the MSTR ticker—have declined sharply. The stock closed at $94.64 per share on Friday, down from a 52-week high of $457.22 and down more than 70% since July 2025.

Looking ahead, Strategy is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 30. Yahoo Finance data cited in the source article points to a consensus expectation of $4.28 per share. Separately, Fintel.io data indicates earnings have missed analyst forecasts in six of the last eight quarters, including a 33.76% negative surprise in the first quarter of 2026.

With the earnings date approaching, investors will likely focus on whether Strategy’s dividend funding plan and Bitcoin sales approach align with the market expectations built around its communications—especially after Sunday’s attempt to clarify what certain chart cues are meant to represent.

For now, the key watch items are how markets interpret Saylor’s “orange dots” framing, whether Strategy’s next disclosures add detail to the monetization plan, and what management signals ahead of July 30—particularly regarding the balance between supporting STRC and minimizing further Bitcoin selling pressure.

Michael Saylor, the Strategy founder and long-time Bitcoin advocate, posted a new chart on Sunday meant to reinforce how investors should interpret his firm’s latest moves. The message—“Orange dots tell only part of the story”—drew attention because it follows a shift at Strategy toward using Bitcoin to support dividends and maintain cash reserves, an approach that differs from its earlier messaging.

The debate matters for markets because Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury has often served as a proxy for broader institutional demand. But in a note to clients, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick said Strategy’s evolving communications are “muddying the waters” for Bitcoin in the near term—particularly regarding whether or not the company is likely to sell large amounts of BTC.

Key takeaways

• Strategy’s recent filings and disclosures show a move away from strict “never sell” messaging, including BTC sales to fund dividends and replenish cash.
• Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick argues the company’s market signaling lacks clarity and can weigh on Bitcoin sentiment in the short term.
• Kendrick believes clearer messaging tied to backing STRC with Bitcoin could reduce pressure for wholesale BTC selling.
• Strategy’s STRC preferred shares and common stock have underperformed sharply over the past year, adding pressure ahead of its July 30 earnings report.

Saylor’s latest post and the question of what investors should infer

Saylor’s Sunday post shared a chart via Saylortracker.com, continuing a pattern in which similar messages have preceded announcements of Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases. In this case, however, the context is different: Strategy has recently signaled that Bitcoin may be sold when needed for shareholder dividends and corporate liquidity.

According to a July 6 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategy sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin earlier this month. The filing also states that the company’s total holdings declined to 843,775 tokens.

That development comes after Strategy introduced a capital framework earlier in the month that contemplates Bitcoin sales as part of funding dividends. The same initiative included an increased annual dividend rate on Strategy’s STRC preferred stock to 12% and reported U.S. dollar reserves of $2.55 billion.

Standard Chartered: the “never sell” story is no longer straightforward

In Standard Chartered’s view, the central issue is not only what Strategy does, but how investors interpret what it does. Kendrick argued that Strategy’s older “never sell” framing limited how the market could understand—and therefore price—the economic role of its Bitcoin treasury.

“The problem with the ‘never sell’ approach is that it limits what MSTR’s BTC holdings can do—or, perhaps more importantly, what they are perceived to be doing,” Kendrick wrote in a Friday client note. He added that Strategy has already begun changing how it communicates this strategy in recent months, pointing to two BTC sales and the disclosure of a BTC monetization program.

Kendrick’s concern is that ambiguous signals may cause near-term uncertainty about whether BTC sales are an infrequent backstop or an ongoing feature of the business model. That ambiguity can, in turn, affect how investors gauge Bitcoin’s near-term demand picture, especially when Strategy is viewed as one of the most prominent corporate Bitcoin holders.

Why the messaging shift could still matter for Bitcoin prices

Despite his critique, Kendrick also suggested there could be a constructive path forward if Strategy communicates more clearly how STRC’s structure connects to Bitcoin economics. In his note, he said the market needs reassurance that wholesale selling is unlikely.

He argued that “effective communication” of Strategy’s new approach—specifically using Bitcoin to back STRC—could help remove the market’s incentive to assume large-scale sales are the only way the dividend mechanism works. Kendrick said that if the signaling is effective, it should support Bitcoin prices, and it may even reduce the need for Strategy to sell BTC by helping maintain STRC’s value through price support.

Standard Chartered also reaffirmed that it maintains a $100,000 year-end forecast for Bitcoin, though the bank framed the immediate concern as about interpretation and clarity rather than a direct change to its outlook.

Strategy shares face pressure ahead of earnings

Investors who have followed Strategy’s Bitcoin narrative have not been met with a smooth ride. The STRC preferred shares were initially structured with a $100 par value, but that par value effectively fell out of focus last month, reaching the lowest level since the preferred stock was introduced a year ago.

Meanwhile, Strategy’s common shares (trading under the MSTR ticker) have declined dramatically over the past year. The stock closed at $94.64 per share on Friday, according to the article’s figures, down from a 52-week high of $457.22—representing more than a 70% loss since July 2025.

With expectations also a concern, Strategy is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 30. Consensus for earnings per share is $4.28, based on Yahoo Finance data. The company has missed analyst forecasts in six of the last eight quarters, Fintel.io data shows, including a 33.76% negative surprise in the first quarter of 2026.

For traders and long-term investors alike, the combination of earnings risk and evolving treasury policy is likely to keep attention on both Strategy’s disclosures and the way Saylor frames them publicly—especially after Sunday’s chart post reminded markets that interpretation remains contested.

Going forward, readers should watch whether Strategy’s next communications become more explicit about how its Bitcoin-backed dividend strategy reduces the likelihood of large sales, and whether the July 30 earnings report offers additional signals on cash flows and execution—areas that could sharpen the market’s understanding of the “orange dots” narrative.

Strategy founder and chairman Michael Saylor again took to social media on Sunday to offer his latest signal to investors as one analyst sees Saylor’s messaging as needing more clarity to help Bitcoin regain its momentum.

“Orange dots tell only part of the story,” was Saylor’s message on Sunday in a post that accompanied a chart from Saylortracker.com, similar to previous social media messages that have preceded news of Strategy’s Bitcoin (BTC) purchases, typically announced the day after his posts.

In recent weeks, the largest digital asset treasury company and a major BTC holder, has moved away from its long-time “never sell Bitcoin” approach to a willingness to sell the biggest crypto as needed to fund dividends for holders of its STRC preferred stock and to replenish its cash reserves. Earlier this month, Strategy sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin, reducing its total holdings to 843,775 tokens, according to a July 6 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

“Orange dots tell only part of the story.” Source: Michael Saylor

Days earlier, Strategy unveiled a capital framework allowing Bitcoin sales to fund dividends, increased the annual dividend rate on its STRC preferred stock to 12%, and disclosed that its US dollar reserve had grown to $2.55 billion.

Standard Charter’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, believes recent Strategy’s actions — and Saylor’s manner of communicating them — “are muddying the waters for BTC near-term.”

“We think effective communication of MSTR’s new strategy (using BTC to back STRC) is key to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely; this should in turn support BTC prices,” Kendrick wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “Indeed, if this signalling proves effective, it should remove the need for MSTR to actually sell any BTC by supporting STRC’s price,” he said.

Related: Crypto Biz: Did Michael Saylor buy the Bitcoin bottom for once?

StanChart sees inconsistencies in “never sell” approach

Kendrick said that Strategy’s long-held “never sell” approach limited what the company could with its industry-biggest digital asset treasury.

“The problem with the ‘never sell’ approach is that it limits what MSTR’s BTC holdings can do — or, perhaps more importantly, what they are perceived to be doing,” the StanChart analyst said. “MSTR has started to shift its communication strategy on this in recent months. It has sold BTC twice and recently announced a BTC monetization program.”

Source: Standard Chartered Bank

Still, he sees Strategy’s “market signaling” will improve soon. He expects that to bring clarity to the outlook for Bitcoin, on which StanChart maintains its $100,000 year-end forecast.

Shares struggle from year low ahead of earnings report

Investors who bought into the Strategy narrative have not had an easy time in the past 12 months. The STRC preferred shares were formulated to hold a price of $100 apiece. Shareholders saw that par value fall to the wayside last month, to the lowest value since the preferred stock was introduced a year ago.

The common shares, trading under the MSTR ticker, have lost more than 70% of their value since July 2025, closing at $94.64 per share on Friday, down from a 52-week high of $457.22.

The company is slated to report second-quarter earnings on July 30, with analysts consensus of $4.28 per share, according to Yahoo Finance data. Earnings have fallen short of analyst forecasts in six of the last eight quarters, according to Fintel.io data, including a 33.76% negative surprise in the first quarter of 2026.

 Magazine: Will the crypto lobby’s $189M campaign get CLARITY over the line?