Where will XRP find a bottom and how high it would go in a subsequent bull market?

The popular cross-border token plunged hard recently, going from a January 6 peak of $2.40 to just over $1.10 during last Friday’s market-wide massacre. After crashing by over 50% within a relatively short period, it bounced off but remains sluggish below $1.40, still showing a 25% decline on a year-to-date scale.

The consensus in the cryptocurrency community is that the bear market has already begun, given the fact that not only XRP but BTC and many other larger-cap alts have plunged by 50% or more from their heights in 2025. As such, analysts have started to speculate where each asset’s bottom might be and how much pain investors would have to endure before they see a trend reversal.

$0.60 to $11?

ERGAG CRYPTO, who is among the most well-known and bullish members of the XRP army, mapped out two potential scenarios for Ripple’s cross-border token. In the first chart, the bottom is presented at $0.60, which would essentially erase all gains charted after Trump’s presidential election victory in late 2024 and push the asset back to its starting point at the time.

This chart comes with a deeper drawdown, continuous fear and disbelief, and weak hands getting flushed. On the upside, XRP could go on a sublime run once the market reverses and the bulls take over, with the analyst predicting a surge to a $11 top.

#XRP – Chart 1 or Chart 2?

💡This isn’t opinion. It’s math, structure, and market behavior.

💡Markets don’t reward comfort. They reward conviction under pressure.

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💡Choose your pain or pain will choose you.

📉 Chart 1:
▫️Bottom: $0.60
▫️Top: $11
▫️ Deeper drawdown
▫️ Fear… pic.twitter.com/7KxtTwcd2A

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) February 13, 2026

More Modest Prediction

The alternative in ERGAG CRYPTO’s mapping was a second chart showing lower volatility ahead in both directions. The bottom would be around $0.90, while the top could be $8.5.

This scenario would provide investors with more comfort and less pain, but its upside potential would also be lower, the analyst added.

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At the time of writing, both bottoms seem more likely to be reached, while the tops appear quite far-fetched. After all, XRP would have to skyrocket by 3x (or more) from its 2025 all-time high of $3.65 before it can challenge the double-digit price levels. In contrast, going to $0.90 or even $0.60 in the current market environment seems rather reasonable.

Nevertheless, market trends can change extremely quickly, and XRP has proven in the past that it’s capable of remarkable runs. After the US elections, it went from $0.60 to $3.40 in just a few months, which is a 466% surge.

Ether traded back above the $2,000 level on Friday, extending gains after the US consumer price index print came in cooler than expected. The relief rally adds to a nascent recovery narrative that could open the door to a test of higher targets if momentum sustains. Market participants are parsing a mix of on-chain signals, leverage data, and institutional demand as they gauge whether this move can translate into a durable bottom or simply a short-lived bounce. With weekly closes in focus, traders are watching for follow-through in the days ahead, while crypto derivatives data continues to feed the debate over whether risk appetite is finally pivoting in Ethereum’s favor.

Key takeaways

• Ether futures’ open interest across major exchanges has fallen by about 80 million ETH in the past 30 days, signaling a broad reduction in leveraged exposure rather than new long bets.
• Binance, the largest venue by volume, led the decline with roughly 40 million ETH pulled from futures positions (about half of the total drop), underscoring a widespread de-risking trend across top platforms.
• Across Gate, Bybit and OKX, combined declines pushed the total among the four major platforms toward a cumulative drop of roughly 75 million ETH, suggesting the trend is not isolated to a single exchange.
• Funding rates on Binance slipped into deep negative territory (around -0.006), the lowest seen in about three years, implying extreme bearish positioning that could set the stage for a short squeeze if buyers re-emerge.
• Technically, Ether has carved out a bullish setup, breaking from a falling wedge and hovering near $2,050; a measured move could target around $2,150, with potential tests of the 100-period SMA near $2,260 and a path toward $2,500 if demand accelerates.
• On-chain activity and rising institutional demand have persisted as tailwinds, with cost-basis accumulation identified around the $1,880–$1,900 zone helping form a potential price base for further upside.

Tickers mentioned: $ETH

Sentiment: Bullish

Price impact: Positive. The cooler CPI print contributed to a rebound from the $2,000 area and increased odds of an extended bounce toward higher targets.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The setup points to potential upside on continued demand signals, but traders should remain mindful of macro surprises and the possibility of renewed volatility if liquidity conditions shift.

Market context: The latest inflation data appears to have nudged investors back toward risk assets, helping to ease some of the near-term macro headwinds that had weighed on crypto markets. Although liquidity remains uneven across venues, the combination of weaker-than-expected inflation readings and supportive on-chain dynamics has contributed to a more constructive backdrop for Ethereum in the near term.

Why it matters

From a market perspective, Ethereum’s price action this week matters not only for holders but for the broader crypto ecosystem. The confluence of falling open interest and negative funding rates suggests many participants were trimming risk rather than chasing new bets, which can reduce the likelihood of rapid, force-driven liquidations in a downside scenario. In such environments, a cleaner backdrop often arises where a new rally can take hold more easily if buyers step in decisively, creating a more stable price base. The sustained improvement in network activity and inflows from institutional actors adds another layer of fundamental support that could help underpin a more durable recovery beyond short-term speculative moves.

On the on-chain front, the observed accumulation at sub-$2,000 levels signals a cadre of investors is building a longer-term stance, a factor that matters because the health of Ether’s network—usage, validator activity, and transaction throughput—has historically fed into price resilience. This dynamic aligns with discussions in the space about Ether’s role not just as a trading instrument but as a network with ongoing growth potential, particularly if demand from institutions and developers continues to accrete.

For market participants, the critical question is whether the $2,000 threshold can function as a genuine floor in the current cycle. If price can hold that level and push higher, momentum could attract fresh buyers and sequentially lift Ether toward the $2,150–$2,260 range in the near term, with a longer arc toward the $2,500 zone if fundamental and technical signals align. Conversely, a break below that level could accelerate downside risk, especially if systemic liquidity tightens or macro headlines shift sentiment once again. In either case, the latest data suggest that the market is closer to a base-building phase than a continuation of the prior downtrend.

What to watch next

• Monitor whether ETH holds the $2,000 support on continued trading sessions and whether buyers emerge at the next test of resistance around $2,150.
• Track open interest and funding rates across major exchanges for signs of capitulation ending or renewed leverage entering the market.
• Watch for a potential challenge to the 100-period simple moving average near $2,260 and any subsequent move toward $2,500 if momentum remains constructive.
• Observe on-chain signals, including ongoing accumulation patterns and institutional flow indicators, for signs of sustained demand beyond short-term price action.

Sources & verification

• CryptoQuant Quicktake: Ethereum open interest across major exchanges declines by over 80 million ETH in 30 days.
• CryptoQuant analysis on funding rates hitting -0.006, the lowest level since December 2022, signaling extreme bearish positioning.
• Glassnode heatmap data showing a cost-basis distribution with substantial support between $1,880 and $1,900 and roughly 1.3 million ETH accumulated there.
• On-chain signals and institutional inflows discussed in related coverage, including notes on network activity tailwinds for Ether.

Ether price action and outlook

Ether broke out of a descending wedge on the four-hour chart and traded around $2,050 at the time of observation. The measured move from the breakout points toward $2,150 highlights a near-term upside trajectory, with the potential to test higher resistance if the rally gains traction. The same chart framework points to possible retests of the 100-period simple moving average near $2,260, followed by a pathway toward the $2,500 horizon should momentum accelerate beyond the immediate levels.

On the downside, a firm hold above the psychological $2,000 level remains a critical anchor, reinforced by the 50-period moving average that has acted as interim support in recent sessions. The cost-basis distribution heatmap from Glassnode emphasizes a populated zone beneath the current price, where long-term holders have previously shown willingness to accumulate, which could provide a stabilizing force if price action turns choppy in the near term.

Historically, periods of negative funding rates at strong price floors have preceded short squeezes that sparked sharper moves to the upside. If the current dynamic persists—declining open interest, controlled leverage, and improving macro sentiment—ETH could establish a more durable base rather than form a brief rally followed by renewed volatility. As market attention shifts toward macro cues and ETF developments, investors will be watching how ETH behaves around key support levels and whether on-chain demand sustains the current trajectory.

Bitcoin (BTC) gained at Friday’s Wall Street open as a fresh US inflation surprise boosted the mood.

Key points:

• Bitcoin price action heads toward key resistance after US CPI inflation data cools beyond expectations.

• Crypto becomes a standout on the day as macro assets see a cool reaction to slowing inflation.

• Traders stay wary on overall BTC price strength.

Bitcoin spikes on soft January CPI data

Data from TradingView showed up to 4% daily BTC price gains at the time of writing, with BTC/USD reaching $69,190 on Bitstamp.

The renewed upside came after the January print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell short of expectations.

As confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), core CPI matched estimates of 2.5%, while the broader reading was 2.4% — 0.1% lower than anticipated.

Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that CPI inflation was now at multiyear lows.

“Core CPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2021,” it wrote in a post on X. 

“Odds of further interest rate cuts are back on the rise.”

Kobeissi referred to the prospects of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its next meeting in March. As Cointelegraph reported, market expectations of such an outcome were previously at rock bottom, not helped by strong labor-market performance.

After the CPI release, odds of a minimal 0.25% cut remained at less than 10%, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Continuing, Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, argued that when viewed through the lens of Truflation, an alternative inflation meter, the CPI drop was “not really a surprise.”

📌RE: CPI Release

Not really a surprise there if you have been following the @truflation CPI number which has plummeted sub-1% already…

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IYKYK pic.twitter.com/GPEUqaSNZI

— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) February 13, 2026

Elsewhere on macro, gold attempted to reclaim the $5,000 per ounce mark, while the US dollar index (DXY) sought a recovery after an initial CPI drop to 96.8.

US stocks, on the other hand, failed to copy Bitcoin’s enthusiasm, trading modestly down on the day at the time of writing.

Analyst eyes current range for BTC price higher low

Considering the outlook for BTC price action, market participants had little reason to alter their cautious positions.

Related: Binance teases Bitcoin bullish ‘shift’ as crypto sentiment hits record low

“$BTC Still consolidating in this falling wedge,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest X update. 

“Attempted a break out yesterday but got slammed back down at the $68K level. That’s the area to watch if this wants to see another leg up at some point.”

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on the significance of the $68,000-$69,000 zone, which plays host to both the old 2021 all-time high and Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).

“Whether you like it or not: Bitcoin remains to be in an area where I think that we’ll see a higher low come in,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe predicted in his own forecast. 

“It’s fragile, for sure, but it doesn’t mean that we’re not going to be seeing some momentum coming in from the markets.”