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Thursday got ugly for tech stocks, especially for chip makers, and Friday could be about as bad based on Nasdaq futures, which are off again. Investors are finding refuge in dowdier sectors such as consumer staples. An ETF tracking those stocks rose Thursday and is pointing up again premarket.

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Most investors feel safest when they move with the crowd. They buy stocks after prices have surged because everyone else is buying, and panic-sell when markets tumble because everyone else is rushing for the exit. But according to renowned investor and psychologist Fred C. Kelly, this instinct is precisely why the majority of investors fail.

In his classic book, “Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation”, Kelly argued that successful investing isn’t about predicting the future better than everyone else—it’s about understanding crowd psychology and resisting the emotional impulses that lead to poor decisions.

Why contrarian investing works

Kelly believed markets are driven as much by human behaviour as by business fundamentals. Investors who simply follow popular opinion often end up buying near market tops and selling close to bottoms.

“If everybody tried to buy when prices are low, then bargains would never exist,” Kelly observed, explaining that opportunities arise only because most people fail to recognise them. According to him, the majority loses because it behaves in the most natural—and emotionally driven—way.

Human psychology matters more than economics

One of Kelly’s central ideas was that investors lose money less because of economic conditions and more because of psychological biases.

He believed investors often sell their best-performing stocks too early while stubbornly holding on to losing investments, hoping they’ll recover. Pride, fear and wishful thinking frequently overpower rational analysis, leading to costly mistakes.

The typical investor’s cycle

Kelly described a familiar pattern of investor behaviour:

• Investors buy cautiously at the beginning of a rally.
• As prices keep rising, confidence turns into overconfidence.
• Greed encourages them to hold on even as valuations become excessive.
• Every decline is dismissed as a buying opportunity.
• Only after widespread pessimism sets in do they finally sell—often near the market bottom.

The four enemies of investment success

Kelly identified four psychological traits that repeatedly derail investors.
Vanity: Investors hate admitting mistakes. Rather than booking losses, they continue holding losing stocks while quickly selling profitable ones to protect their ego.Greed: Greed destroys patience. Investors chase expensive stocks during euphoric markets instead of waiting for attractive valuations.

The will to believe: Hope often pushes investors into speculative bets, convincing them that risky stocks will somehow deliver extraordinary returns despite weak fundamentals.

Blind logic: Kelly argued that what feels logical in markets is often wrong. Buying after strong rallies and selling after prolonged declines may appear sensible because recent trends seem likely to continue, but history shows that such behaviour frequently results in buying high and selling low.

Why patience beats excitement

Kelly advised investors to avoid buying stocks simply because they’ve fallen sharply. Instead, he recommended waiting until a stock demonstrates that selling pressure has truly exhausted itself.

He also warned against assuming that a stock is cheap merely because it trades below its previous highs. A lower price alone doesn’t necessarily make a stock a bargain.

Not everyone is suited for the stock market

Kelly believed successful investing requires emotional flexibility and discipline. Investors who become emotionally attached to their opinions or refuse to adapt to changing market conditions often struggle.

He also cautioned against expecting quick riches without preparation, arguing that the stock market rewards patience, study and temperament far more than luck.

The bottom line

Fred Kelly’s investing philosophy remains remarkably relevant even decades later. In an era dominated by social media trends, momentum investing and fear of missing out, his advice serves as a reminder that the biggest edge in investing often comes not from superior information, but from superior behaviour.

His message was to understand the crowd, learn from its mistakes and avoid following it blindly. Long-term investment success belongs not to those who react emotionally, but to those who remain patient, disciplined and willing to think independently.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Mahjong, a centuries-old tile game with deep roots in Chinese culture, is finding a new audience as younger Americans swap nights out and endless scrolling for face-to-face competition. Across the country, clubs, social groups and tournaments are drawing newcomers who see the game as more than just a hobby. It has become a way to build friendships and disconnect from screens.

FOX Business’ Lydia Hu joined FOX Business’ Cheryl Casone on “Mornings with Maria” to explore why the game’s popularity is surging, speaking with players at a mahjong tournament about what is driving the growing interest among Gen Z.

While colorful modern mahjong sets have helped attract attention on social media, many players said the game’s biggest appeal is the community that forms around the table. One player described the atmosphere by saying, “One of the things I love about this community is we are celebratorily competitive… When someone wins a big hand, everyone will kind of cheer.”

Others said the combination of strategy, luck and genuine human interaction keeps them coming back.

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“People are really looking for in-person connections and just activities that also don’t involve drinking or eating or being on your phone,” another player said.

The game’s welcoming nature is also helping fuel its rapid growth. New players are joining experienced competitors, with one tournament participant saying, “I just won my first hand after learning the rules yesterday, so I’m feeling pretty good.”

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Hu also shared the story behind her father’s vintage mahjong set, which he brought with him when he immigrated from Taiwan decades ago. The family heirloom became a conversation starter at the tournament, highlighting how a traditional game continues to connect generations while creating new friendships.

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IDBI Bank on Saturday reported a standalone net profit of Rs 2,115 crore for the April-June quarter of the ongoing financial year 2027, marking a 5% year-on-year (YoY) increase from Rs 2,007 crore a year ago.

The bank’s net interest income, the difference between interest earned and interest expenses, rose more than 10% YoY to Rs 3,486 crore in Q1 FY27 from Rs 3,166 crore in Q1 FY26.

IDBI Bank’s asset quality slightly worsened since the March quarter, although it improved on a YoY basis. The lender’s net NPA ratio stood at 0.16%, as against 0.15% in Q4 FY26 and 0.21% in Q1 FY26.

Provisions and contingencies stood at a negative Rs 637 crore, as against a negative Rs 179 crore in the year-ago period. Capital adequacy ratio, meanwhile, increased to 26.92% during the quarter under review, while return on assets stood at 1.89%.

Also read | HDFC Bank Q1 Results: Net profit rises 5% YoY to Rs 19,060 crore, NII up 7%

IDBI Bank’s total deposits grew 10% YoY to Rs 3.26 lakh crore, while net advances rose 22% YoY to Rs 2.59 lakh crore. Credit deposit ratio stood at 79.5%, marking an improvement by 810 bps YoY and 644 bps QoQ. Net interest margin (NIM) stood at 3.61%. The lender’s total balance sheet increased 10% YoY to Rs 4.44 lakh crore.
The company’s current account savings account ratio stood at 43.64%, marking a 99 bps fall since June last year. CASA, meanwhile, grew 7% YoY to Rs 1.42 lakh crore in Q1 FY27.

IDBI Bank share price

IDBI Bank shares gained around 2% to close at Rs 87 apiece on Friday. The shares of the company gained around 5% in one week, but have fallen around 4% in one month. Overall, the stock is down more than 16% in 2026 so far.
Also read | Yes Bank Q1 Results: Net profit surges 34% YoY to Rs 1,071 crore; NII advances 18%

Over a longer term, IDBI Bank shares have delivered a negative return of 13% over one year, but positive returns of 50% in three years and 130% in five years. The company has a market capitalisation of nearly Rs 93,546 crore.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)