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Thursday got ugly for tech stocks, especially for chip makers, and Friday could be about as bad based on Nasdaq futures, which are off again. Investors are finding refuge in dowdier sectors such as consumer staples. An ETF tracking those stocks rose Thursday and is pointing up again premarket.

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Most investors feel safest when they move with the crowd. They buy stocks after prices have surged because everyone else is buying, and panic-sell when markets tumble because everyone else is rushing for the exit. But according to renowned investor and psychologist Fred C. Kelly, this instinct is precisely why the majority of investors fail.

In his classic book, “Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation”, Kelly argued that successful investing isn’t about predicting the future better than everyone else—it’s about understanding crowd psychology and resisting the emotional impulses that lead to poor decisions.

Why contrarian investing works

Kelly believed markets are driven as much by human behaviour as by business fundamentals. Investors who simply follow popular opinion often end up buying near market tops and selling close to bottoms.

“If everybody tried to buy when prices are low, then bargains would never exist,” Kelly observed, explaining that opportunities arise only because most people fail to recognise them. According to him, the majority loses because it behaves in the most natural—and emotionally driven—way.

Human psychology matters more than economics

One of Kelly’s central ideas was that investors lose money less because of economic conditions and more because of psychological biases.

He believed investors often sell their best-performing stocks too early while stubbornly holding on to losing investments, hoping they’ll recover. Pride, fear and wishful thinking frequently overpower rational analysis, leading to costly mistakes.

The typical investor’s cycle

Kelly described a familiar pattern of investor behaviour:

• Investors buy cautiously at the beginning of a rally.
• As prices keep rising, confidence turns into overconfidence.
• Greed encourages them to hold on even as valuations become excessive.
• Every decline is dismissed as a buying opportunity.
• Only after widespread pessimism sets in do they finally sell—often near the market bottom.

The four enemies of investment success

Kelly identified four psychological traits that repeatedly derail investors.
Vanity: Investors hate admitting mistakes. Rather than booking losses, they continue holding losing stocks while quickly selling profitable ones to protect their ego.Greed: Greed destroys patience. Investors chase expensive stocks during euphoric markets instead of waiting for attractive valuations.

The will to believe: Hope often pushes investors into speculative bets, convincing them that risky stocks will somehow deliver extraordinary returns despite weak fundamentals.

Blind logic: Kelly argued that what feels logical in markets is often wrong. Buying after strong rallies and selling after prolonged declines may appear sensible because recent trends seem likely to continue, but history shows that such behaviour frequently results in buying high and selling low.

Why patience beats excitement

Kelly advised investors to avoid buying stocks simply because they’ve fallen sharply. Instead, he recommended waiting until a stock demonstrates that selling pressure has truly exhausted itself.

He also warned against assuming that a stock is cheap merely because it trades below its previous highs. A lower price alone doesn’t necessarily make a stock a bargain.

Not everyone is suited for the stock market

Kelly believed successful investing requires emotional flexibility and discipline. Investors who become emotionally attached to their opinions or refuse to adapt to changing market conditions often struggle.

He also cautioned against expecting quick riches without preparation, arguing that the stock market rewards patience, study and temperament far more than luck.

The bottom line

Fred Kelly’s investing philosophy remains remarkably relevant even decades later. In an era dominated by social media trends, momentum investing and fear of missing out, his advice serves as a reminder that the biggest edge in investing often comes not from superior information, but from superior behaviour.

His message was to understand the crowd, learn from its mistakes and avoid following it blindly. Long-term investment success belongs not to those who react emotionally, but to those who remain patient, disciplined and willing to think independently.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Mahjong, a centuries-old tile game with deep roots in Chinese culture, is finding a new audience as younger Americans swap nights out and endless scrolling for face-to-face competition. Across the country, clubs, social groups and tournaments are drawing newcomers who see the game as more than just a hobby. It has become a way to build friendships and disconnect from screens.

FOX Business’ Lydia Hu joined FOX Business’ Cheryl Casone on “Mornings with Maria” to explore why the game’s popularity is surging, speaking with players at a mahjong tournament about what is driving the growing interest among Gen Z.

While colorful modern mahjong sets have helped attract attention on social media, many players said the game’s biggest appeal is the community that forms around the table. One player described the atmosphere by saying, “One of the things I love about this community is we are celebratorily competitive… When someone wins a big hand, everyone will kind of cheer.”

Others said the combination of strategy, luck and genuine human interaction keeps them coming back.

GEN Z BREAKS ULTIMATE TABOO BY POSTING SALARIES ONLINE

“People are really looking for in-person connections and just activities that also don’t involve drinking or eating or being on your phone,” another player said.

The game’s welcoming nature is also helping fuel its rapid growth. New players are joining experienced competitors, with one tournament participant saying, “I just won my first hand after learning the rules yesterday, so I’m feeling pretty good.”

GEN Z SHOPPERS HELPING REVIVE AMERICA’S MALLS WITH PUSH FOR IN-PERSON EXPERIENCES

Hu also shared the story behind her father’s vintage mahjong set, which he brought with him when he immigrated from Taiwan decades ago. The family heirloom became a conversation starter at the tournament, highlighting how a traditional game continues to connect generations while creating new friendships.

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IDBI Bank on Saturday reported a standalone net profit of Rs 2,115 crore for the April-June quarter of the ongoing financial year 2027, marking a 5% year-on-year (YoY) increase from Rs 2,007 crore a year ago.

The bank’s net interest income, the difference between interest earned and interest expenses, rose more than 10% YoY to Rs 3,486 crore in Q1 FY27 from Rs 3,166 crore in Q1 FY26.

IDBI Bank’s asset quality slightly worsened since the March quarter, although it improved on a YoY basis. The lender’s net NPA ratio stood at 0.16%, as against 0.15% in Q4 FY26 and 0.21% in Q1 FY26.

Provisions and contingencies stood at a negative Rs 637 crore, as against a negative Rs 179 crore in the year-ago period. Capital adequacy ratio, meanwhile, increased to 26.92% during the quarter under review, while return on assets stood at 1.89%.

Also read | HDFC Bank Q1 Results: Net profit rises 5% YoY to Rs 19,060 crore, NII up 7%

IDBI Bank’s total deposits grew 10% YoY to Rs 3.26 lakh crore, while net advances rose 22% YoY to Rs 2.59 lakh crore. Credit deposit ratio stood at 79.5%, marking an improvement by 810 bps YoY and 644 bps QoQ. Net interest margin (NIM) stood at 3.61%. The lender’s total balance sheet increased 10% YoY to Rs 4.44 lakh crore.
The company’s current account savings account ratio stood at 43.64%, marking a 99 bps fall since June last year. CASA, meanwhile, grew 7% YoY to Rs 1.42 lakh crore in Q1 FY27.

IDBI Bank share price

IDBI Bank shares gained around 2% to close at Rs 87 apiece on Friday. The shares of the company gained around 5% in one week, but have fallen around 4% in one month. Overall, the stock is down more than 16% in 2026 so far.
Also read | Yes Bank Q1 Results: Net profit surges 34% YoY to Rs 1,071 crore; NII advances 18%

Over a longer term, IDBI Bank shares have delivered a negative return of 13% over one year, but positive returns of 50% in three years and 130% in five years. The company has a market capitalisation of nearly Rs 93,546 crore.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Bangkok Bar Fire Tragedy Dominates Headlines

A devastating fire at a Bangkok bar that killed at least 30 people (with some reports citing 33 deaths) has emerged as the week’s most significant story, drawing coverage from multiple international outlets. The tragedy has exposed critical safety loopholes in Thailand’s nightlife venue regulations, prompting the government to launch investigations into possible negligence. According to AP News coverage of the fire’s aftermath, the band that was performing when the fire broke out is now mourning the loss of members among the victims. The incident has raised broader questions about enforcement of building codes and emergency safety standards across Thailand’s entertainment district, with outlets including the BBC, Toronto Star, and ABC News all highlighting systemic regulatory gaps that allowed such a catastrophic event to occur.

Diplomatic Pressures Over Chinese Nationals

Thailand faces mounting international scrutiny regarding its treatment of Chinese dissidents and journalists. Human Rights Watch has explicitly warned Thailand against forcibly returning Chinese dissidents, while China has simultaneously requested that Thailand deport a Chinese journalist, identified as Bai Zhaodong. This request has triggered alarm among press freedom organizations, with Reporters Without Borders (RSF) and Safeguard Defenders jointly urging Thai authorities to halt any forcible return that could result in persecution. Beijing has also formally asked Thailand to extradite the journalist, according to Bangkok Post reporting, creating a diplomatic tension between Thailand’s relationship with China and its human rights obligations under international law.

Visa Policy Reversals and Tourism Strategy

Thailand’s approach to tourism policy has shown notable flexibility in recent days. The government scrapped plans to end visa-free entry for Indian tourists, reversing an earlier proposal amid industry concerns about declining demand. This decision aligns with broader efforts to boost tourism revenue, as Thailand simultaneously works to attract higher-spending visitors rather than simply maximizing tourist volume. However, the visa landscape remains complex, with reports indicating tightened policies affecting other traveler categories, including Swiss seasonal retirees who have expressed dismay over stricter requirements. Foreign arrivals have declined 3.09% year-to-date, suggesting the balance between visa accessibility and quality tourism remains a delicate policy challenge.

Border Tensions with Cambodia

Diplomatic complexities extend to Thailand’s border relationship with Cambodia, particularly regarding Chinese military hardware. China has assured Thailand that tanks being delivered to Cambodia will not be used against Thai forces, addressing concerns raised by Thai officials about regional military balance. This assurance comes amid broader speculation that China could potentially mediate ongoing border disputes between the two Southeast Asian neighbors. Additionally, discussions continue regarding potential oil and gas reserves that could be jointly developed in disputed border areas, representing a possible economic incentive for resolving territorial tensions.

Economic and Investment Developments

Thailand’s economic indicators present a mixed but generally positive picture for 2026. The country attracted THB188 billion in foreign direct investment during the first half of the year, with China leading in terms of number of firms while Japan contributed the highest investment value. This robust FDI performance occurs alongside Thailand’s emergence as one of the world’s top four AI hardware exporters, according to IMF classifications. The nation is also strengthening its digital infrastructure, with airports undergoing biometric modernization through partnerships with Amadeus and Edgewater, and Bangkok preparing to host a major cybersecurity summit. Additionally, welfare card eligibility has been reduced by 28% under new, tougher qualification rules, reflecting fiscal adjustments in social spending.

Tourism Recognition and Sector Growth

Despite overall arrival numbers softening, Thailand continues receiving significant tourism accolades. Koh Samui has been named the world’s best island for 2026, surpassing competitors including the Maldives, Ecuador, and Indonesia. This recognition supports Thailand’s broader strategy to position itself as a premium travel destination. The wellness tourism sector shows particular momentum, with Thailand Health Excellence announcing partnerships with Airbnb and Huawei to enhance medical and wellness travel infrastructure. New cruise tourism initiatives are also decentralizing away from congested ports toward islands like Phuket and Krabi, while electric vehicle tourism campaigns launched with ZEEKR aim to promote sustainable road trips across the kingdom.

Regional Security and Military Cooperation

Thailand’s military partnerships remain active, exemplified by the successful conclusion of CARAT Thailand’s 32nd iteration, which reportedly strengthened maritime partnerships in the region. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing is scheduled to visit Thailand in early August, according to Thai Prime Minister statements, continuing diplomatic engagement with Thailand’s western neighbor despite ongoing regional concerns about Myanmar’s political situation. Thailand has also been pushing for ASEAN envoy access to Aung San Suu Kyi ahead of an upcoming summit, signaling continued involvement in Myanmar’s political crisis resolution efforts.

Infrastructure and Climate Resilience

Thailand is actively seeking international partnerships to address climate vulnerabilities, particularly flood control. The country is seeking Japan’s backing for flood-control projects as climate risks intensify, reflecting growing concerns about extreme weather impacts on infrastructure and communities. Water resource management also faces challenges, with reports indicating the Pasak reservoir has dropped to just 13% capacity, creating an uneven water security picture across different regions. These climate adaptation efforts are complemented by academic initiatives, including Chulalongkorn University’s efforts to bring together researchers and policymakers focused on climate adaptation strategies for the kingdom’s future resilience planning.

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