SYDNEY — Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index clawed out modest gains Monday, rising as much as 0.45% in early trade before paring back to a 0.13% advance by mid-morning, as investors weighed surging oil prices tied to the escalating war between the United States and Iran against a deepening global selloff in semiconductor stocks.

The index sat at 8,797.7 points shortly after noon Sydney time, up slightly on the day after finishing the prior week 0.5% lower at 8,796.7. Futures had pointed to a stronger open, with ASX 200 futures up 54 points, or 0.61%, ahead of the session, but several sectors including materials, industrials, consumer staples, consumer discretionary and healthcare that opened higher had slipped back into negative territory by mid-morning.

Oil surges as Middle East conflict widens

Energy was the standout sector Monday, with Brent crude trading 3.1% higher at $91.07 a barrel, its highest level since June 11 and a 27.8% rally since hitting a low on July 1. The gains came as the war between the United States and Iran entered its sixth month with no sign of resolution. Three U.S. service members have died in the conflict, including two killed in an Iranian missile and drone attack in Jordan and a third during the controlled detonation of a downed Iranian drone in northern Iraq, marking the first American fatalities from Iranian fire since March.

U.S. forces have carried out eight consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian air defenses, coastal installations, and missile and drone storage sites, while Iran has widened its retaliation to strike U.S. allies in the Gulf, hitting a power and desalination plant in Kuwait for a second consecutive day. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to a fraction of pre-war levels, with just three commodity vessels transiting the waterway on Thursday compared with a daily average of about 125 before the conflict began, as a U.S. naval blockade on Iran-linked shipping remains in force.

The energy-driven rally lifted Australian fuel and gas producers. Viva Energy Group climbed 4.7%, Deep Yellow rose 4.07%, Karoon Energy gained 4%, Woodside Energy Group added 2.71% and Ampol rose 2.64%. Sims, the scrap metals recycler, also featured among the day’s top performers, up 3.04%.

Chip selloff weighs on sentiment

Offsetting the energy gains was a deepening rout in technology and semiconductor shares that has rattled markets across Asia and the United States over the past week. The selloff intensified after Chinese startup Moonshot released an open-weight artificial intelligence model, Kimi K3, that the company says outperforms most rivals on overall capability, trailing only Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 by some measures. The 2.8 trillion-parameter model, which Moonshot priced at roughly the level of Anthropic’s Sonnet tier, reignited investor concerns about the sustainability of heavy AI infrastructure spending and the durability of pricing power among leading U.S. and Chinese AI developers.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell into bear-market territory last week, sliding roughly 10% over five sessions in its worst weekly performance in more than a year and ending Friday down just over 20% from its late-June record, though the index remains up more than 60% for the year to date. The rout spread across Asia, where Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. shares fell 7.3% in Taipei even after the company lifted its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to between $60 billion and $64 billion. Taiwan’s benchmark Taiex index dropped 6.5%, extending its decline from a June high to nearly 11%, as foreign investors sold a record $5.8 billion of shares on a net basis. A Bloomberg gauge of Asian chip stocks fell more than 6%, led by memory chipmaker Kioxia, whose shares have roughly halved in recent weeks.

The technology weakness followed a losing week on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 fell 1.01% to 7,457.69 on Friday, the Nasdaq dropped 1.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.77%, capping weekly declines of 1.6%, 2.9% and 0.9%, respectively. Streaming giant Netflix tumbled 7.2% after issuing soft third-quarter revenue guidance, while International Business Machines Corp. posted its worst week on record following disappointing sales.

On the ASX, technology-exposed and gold names bore the brunt of the pullback. Gold miners fell broadly as the surging U.S. dollar and rising oil prices weighed on the sector, with Regis Resources down 2.84%, Evolution Mining off 2.47% and Genesis Minerals down 1.8%. Alcoa Corp. shares slid 4.61% and Flight Centre, the travel agency, dropped 4.43% as higher oil prices raised concerns about airline fuel costs. Qantas Airways fell 1.37%.

Trade and commodity dynamics in focus

Away from the broader market swings, South Korean steelmaker Posco, one of the largest private buyers of Australian exports, called for an overhaul of how the coking coal market sets benchmark prices, arguing that a narrow set of spot trades distorts the indices used across the industry. Posco’s head of raw materials procurement said reliance on limited transaction data represented a structural vulnerability, echoing similar pressure major miners have faced in the iron ore market from Chinese buyers.

In company news, diversified miner South32 said it exceeded full-year production guidance across its portfolio and lifted fourth-quarter sales volumes 15% as it advances a US$5.6 billion sale of its aluminium business to Alcoa, a deal expected to leave roughly 85% of the company’s pro-forma earnings coming from base and precious metals. Elsewhere, MGX Resources struck a binding deal to sell its Koolan Island iron ore operation to infrastructure investor Crestlink, and gold miner Aurelia Metals reported its strongest quarterly cash flow since 2018 alongside the planned departure of chief executive Bryan Quinn later this month.

Also weighing on investor sentiment was a report that U.S. corporate insiders sold $77.6 billion of stock in the first half of 2026, the second-fastest pace of insider selling in more than two decades and up 20% from a year earlier, a trend some market participants view as a caution signal given elevated valuations. Separately, shares of SpaceX have fallen 18.5% over the past six trading sessions and now sit below their initial public offering price, denting enthusiasm ahead of a wave of anticipated technology listings later this year.

Trading is expected to remain volatile through the session as investors continue to balance the geopolitical risk premium building into oil markets against the unwinding of momentum trades in the technology sector that has defined much of the past week’s global market action.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MSFT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The Nifty enters the new trading week with momentum on its side after outperforming most Asian peers on Friday and breaking out of its recent consolidation range. Analysts expect the rally to extend towards 24,500-24,750, with some seeing the potential for 25,000, although they believe the index must first overcome resistance around the 24,350-24,600 zone. The index closed at 24,334 on Friday.

NAGARAJ SHETTI
SENIOR TECHNICAL RESEARCH ANALYST, HDFC SECURITIES

Trading Strategies
One may look to buy Bank Nifty July Futures around 58,591-58,500 for an upside target of 59,600 by the July 28 expiry. Place a stop loss at 58,000. One may buy the Nifty 24,500 CE of the July 28 expiry around 137-125 for a target of 250. Place a stop loss at 75. TOP STOCK PICKS
Bajaj Finance: Buy at Rs 1,055 | Target: Rs 1,115 | Stop loss: Rs 1,020 | Timeframe: 1-2 weeks

The stock is poised for a breakout above previous highs, supported by robust volumes and a positive daily RSI. Sona BLW
Precision Forgings: Buy at Rs 705 | Target: Rs 752 | Stop loss: Rs 680 | Timeframe: 1-2 weeks
Bullish chart structure, strong breakout volumes and a positive daily RSI support the uptrend.

Also Read: D-St set for a negative opening as GIFT Nifty signals weak start

MEHUL KOTHARI
DVP – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ANAND RATHI SHARE AND STOCK BROKERS

Trading Strategy
While the broader trend remains positive, the outlook is cautious until the Nifty decisively clears the immediate resistance zone of 24,350- 24,400. Until then, traders can consider a hedged short strategy: Sell Nifty July Futures around 24,350 Buy 24,300 Call Option (Monthly Expiry) as a hedge. The maximum risk on the strategy is expected to be around Rs 12,000 per lot.

Exit Strategy:
Stop Loss: Exit on a decisive move above 24,500. Target: Book profits if the index revisits the 24,000 support zone.

TOP STOCK PICKS

EPACK Durable: Buy at Rs 240-244 | Target: Rs 275 | Stop loss: Rs 225 | Timeframe: 1-3 months

The stock‘s technical setup has improved after moving above the Ichimoku conversion and base lines, while momentum indicators have also turned positive.

Endurance Technologies: Buy at Rs 2,770-2,800 | Target: Rs 3,100 | Stop loss: Rs 2,620 | Timeframe: 90 days

It has confirmed a bullish breakout from an Ascending Triangle pattern, reinforcing the strength of the prevailing uptrend. The stock continues to trade above the Ichimoku Cloud with improving momentum, indicating the potential for further gains.

Read more: Select mid & smallcaps on a roll, but broader market lags

SACCHITANAND UTTEKAR
VP – RESEARCH (TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES), TRADEBULLS SECURITIES

Trading Strategy
For the Nifty to unlock meaningful directional momentum, the index must reclaim the 24,350- 24,400 resistance zone. A sustained breakout above this range would reaffirm that the broader market structure remains intact and open the possibility of an upmove towards 24,740-24,950 during the current July series.

On the downside, a decisive close below 23,800 would weaken the technical structure and increase the probability of an extended corrective phase.

Deploy a Bull Call Spread: This strategy is suitable for a moderately bullish view, with the expectation that the Nifty will sustain above 24,300 and potentially move towards 24,600 during the expiry period.

Buy: 1 Lot Nifty 24,350 Call @ Rs 115 Sell: 1 Lot Nifty 24,600 Call @ Rs 26 Net Premium: Rs 89 | SL Below: 62 | TGT: 160 Maximum Profit: Rs 161 points (250-point spread − Rs 89 net premium) Maximum Loss: Rs 89 points (Net premium paid) Breakeven: 24,439 (24,350 + Rs 89)

TOP STOCK PICKS
ABB India: Buy at Rs 7,506 | Target: Rs 8,180 | Stop loss: Rs 7,354

The stock has witnessed a fresh breakout from a Bullish Pennant pattern on the weekly chart, with the RSI displaying a strong positive crossover, another positive sign for directional momentum.

State Bank of India: Buy at Rs 1,044 | Target: Rs 1,080 | Stop loss: Rs 1,036

The Piercing Line bullish reversal pattern confirms Rs 1,000 as a key support. RSI above 50 suggests momentum is building towards the Rs 1,080 target.

ET Intelligence Group: The early June quarter earnings trend has been marked by double-digit growth in revenue and profit, driven largely by most of the big banks and stable year-on-year performance by the IT pack.

For a common sample of 164 companies, revenue grew 17.5% on a low base a year ago, the fastest in at least nine quarters.

Net profit rose 14.5% year-on-year, marking a second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. In the year-ago period, revenue and profit had risen by 4.7% and 11.5%, respectively.

The sample’s operating margin was under pressure due to higher input costs.

Operating Margin Contracts

For the total sample, operating margin contracted to 20.9% in the June quarter from 26.9% in the year-ago quarter. Excluding lenders, the sample’s operating margin fell to 14.7% from 17.3% by a similar comparison. The proportion of raw material cost in sales for the truncated sample shot up to 33.3% from 29.8% a year ago, reflecting input price inflation due to geopolitical conflict.
Read more: Refining gains, clean energy push lift Reliance outlook despite retail drag

Some banks and finance companies reported strong numbers, boosting overall net profit growth. Excluding lenders, the sample’s net profit growth shrank to just 1.2%. The share of banks and finance companies in the total sample’s net profit rose to 56.9% in the June quarter from 51.3% a year ago.The total sample’s profit growth was muted by Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) numbers. Net profit at the country’s largest company by revenue and market cap fell 22.4% year-on-year to Rs20,946 crore. Excluding RIL, the sample’s net profit surged to 24.1%. The lower profit was attributable to an exceptional gain of Rs 8,924 crore recorded in the year-ago quarter on the sale of RIL’s stake in Asian Paints.

At the beginning of the results season, analysts had anticipated double-digit growth in the aggregate net profit of the Nifty 50 companies, aided by banks and finance companies. “The overall earnings growth is anticipated to be healthy, anchored by financials, metals, and capital goods companies,” Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a preview report.

Clarity on the financial trend will emerge as more companies from across sectors declare quarterly numbers in the coming weeks.

Read more: Nifty ready for 24,500-24,750 levels after breakout rally: Analysts