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Praetorian Capital Q2 2026 Investor Letter
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During the second quarter of 2026, the Praetorian Capital Fund LLC (the “Fund”) depreciated by 4.39% net of fees. Given the Fund’s concentrated portfolio structure and focus on asymmetric opportunities, I anticipate that the Fund will be rather volatile from quarter to quarter. During the second quarter, our core portfolio positions depreciated moderately, while the Event-Driven book also experienced declines.
*Net return varies from gross return as it accounts for management fees and incentive allocations. Please see the additional disclaimers on the final page of this document.
Markets Are Complex
Six months ago, if you had asked me what would happen during a Mid-East war, I’d have guessed that gold and US Treasuries would rally on a global flight to safety. Nope, they declined—markets are complex. I would have guessed that if we drew more than a billion barrels of global commercial inventories, oil would scream out of control. Nope, it’s effectively unchanged since the conflict began—markets are complex. If you asked me how our core book would do, I’d have told you that we’d likely outperform given our heavy weighting towards volatility and inflation beneficiaries. Nope, we’ve given up ground—markets are complex.
I’ve always been of the view that in the short run, markets can trade at literally any price level. Throughout my career, I have repeatedly been humbled by securities that have exceeded even my wildest expectations of where they could trade. While the overall decline in our portfolio was quite moderate by this Fund’s standards, I remain humbled, as I really would have expected our book to have performed better in a Mid-East war that saw increased volatility and inflation readings. Markets are complex.
It’s worth taking a step back and trying to frame what happened. As you know, I’m firmly of the view that we’re in a Feudalist economic system . Rather than rehash my view of Feudalism again, just think of it this way: the oligarchs of foreign countries underpay their workers to produce products for our citizens to consume. Their resulting dollar earnings are then recycled into US Dollar risk assets, leading our currency and assets to be overvalued, our businesses unable to compete globally outside of a handful of sectors like technology, and our economy effectively hollowed out. Our overpriced assets then allow increased consumption, and the cycle begins anew. This ecosystem benefits the top few percent of families in both nations, while impoverishing everyone else. Economic Feudalism.
When Hormuz was closed, some unique trends happened, briefly alleviating Feudalism globally. As Asian Mercantilists were unable to procure affordable energy products, they chose to ration supply to their industries. Products that had been subsidized by cheap loans and labor for decades suddenly traded up to free-market levels, and US industries suddenly became competitive again. There was then a wave of hiring across dozens of US industries, as Asia was unable to produce competing products. You could say that the Iranians undertook the anti-involution campaign that China keeps talking about, yet never seems to pursue. The global economy upticked dramatically, and the global recession took a pause, as the chains of Feudalism were briefly broken. The result was that many of our portfolio’s trends reversed—we’re long Feudalism. Many years ago, they used to talk about Risk-on or Risk-off trades. I think in terms of Feudalism and Run-It-Hot. Main Street actually had a few good months due to the war, but our book is not positioned for that. Now with the war seemingly trailing off (or maybe not??), our positions are beginning to bounce back.
For better or worse (mostly worse), Feudalism is the dominant mindset amongst elites globally—in many ways, our domestic economic policies are simply a mirror reflection of our trading partners’ imbalances. We all suffer together economically, though it is quite good for those at the top. Last April, Trump tried to put up trade barriers and reverse this situation, but to undo Feudalism, US equities would decline dramatically. As I like to remind people, during the Trade War, Main Street won for 6 days. Trump couldn’t even take that much pain. Hence my confidence in Feudalism accelerating, until both sides make a political decision to undo it. But why would they?? Everyone at the top is winning—hence it will continue, with brief pauses along the way. In our portfolio, we continue to double down on Feudalism (though we do have a large refinery position to hedge this exposure, and it hedged beautifully), while focusing on eliminating positions that are tied to real GDP growth. The most recent quarter was a short-lived speed bump in this process, but even the Iranians have a stock market—maybe they also prefer Feudalism??
Thoughts on the Event-Driven Book
Ever since Trump returned to power, our Event-Driven book (ED) has underperformed my expectations. I’m used to a world where securities trend, and I can use very tight risk profiles to manage the exposures within this book. The staccato nature of Trump tweets leads to an extreme level of disjointed market action, which doesn’t really work well with many of our strategies. During the second quarter, we gave back the majority of the gains from the first quarter, before I chose to cut off the ED book for the summer (risk discipline says that when you’re taking losses, you stop what you’re doing). We’re roughly flat for the year on the ED book, which is annoying for something that’s almost always been a profit center. While it hasn’t caused harm, the recent performance of the ED book is certainly not what I’d normally underwrite in our Fund’s return profile, especially as we’ve now had seven consecutive years where the ED book has been additive to returns.
The book did poorly during Trump’s first term, only to excel when events moved beyond his control during COVID. When I reboot the book during the fall, I plan to target more single-stock situations, where we’ve done well over the past year and change, avoiding macro-type situations, where Trump frequently creates discontinuous markets. This is quite similar to what worked during the last Trump Presidency. Unfortunately, sometimes I need to relearn the old lessons.
Let’s Talk AI
Clearly, AI has been the biggest market trend for the past few years. I’m embarrassed to say that not only did we miss participating, but we actively sought out ways to fade it. To date, I remain of the view that most of the capital invested in this sector will be impaired. I think of AI much like other massive multi-year capex programs over the past two centuries: the canals, the railroads, and the fiber buildout. Great expenditures of capital produced only bankruptcy and loss for those who spent the capital.
When looking at AI, I frequently think of the Panama Canal, which bankrupted the French, before getting completed by the US government. To date, it is unclear if the canal has even earned its construction cost in inflation-adjusted terms, much less a positive return on capital, and that is for one of the most strategic and monopolistic assets in the world. On the other hand, the railroads and the fiber buildouts suffered from endless competition, overcapacity and high fixed costs, necessitating endless discounts to gain share. They’ve been even worse investments. At the same time, they’ve been great value creators for those who were adjacent. As I look around my office, I see many items that transited the Panama Canal or rode the rails. This communication is likely reaching you through fiber that was laid down by a now-bankrupted telecom. We are all beneficiaries of this malinvestment, while the shareholders who funded it have suffered the consequences. Unfortunately, I used my history lens to contemplate AI, rather than join in the orgy of speculation.
If you think of the railroad buildout, two types of players won. On one hand, you have Carnegie, Frick and the other suppliers to the railroad buildout. On the other hand, you have Rockefeller and the agriculturalists who played the railroads off each other to procure cheap transport. We should have owned the suppliers to AI, which have been phenomenal trades. Unfortunately, I kept thinking that eventually adult supervision would step in and end this overspending. Why would asset-light tech companies pivot to become asset-heavy capital immolators?? No one wants to be a shale company . In that vein, I was wrong—or at least early in seeing AI for what it is. The buildout continues, even though there’s a dawning realization that the economics are brutally awful ( much as I intimated almost a year ago ) . It has gone on for three years longer than I ever thought possible, but I now think that we’re nearing a crossroads in terms of the ability to continue growing capex spend at the current rate—the rate of change in spend is indeed inflecting lower. As a result, those funds chasing the AI bottlenecks will be painfully surprised when new supply magically comes online, just as growth slows, in my opinion. It was an amazing run (which we missed). However, I think these cyclical industries will ultimately return to their roots and be cyclical—crushing the hopes and dreams of shareholders. I have feared this moment, and missed out on the AI capex plays—much to our detriment, as they’ve been one of the strongest macro trends in a market that has been surprisingly devoid of deep and liquid trends to play over the past few years.
Having missed out on being Carnegie, I want to focus on being Rockefeller. What industries will use AI to dramatically reduce their costs?? Who will find ways to grow revenue by utilizing AI?? We have some interesting ideas, and I’m sure we’ll think of more. Taking it a bit further along in this process, if corporates become focused on using AI to reduce headcount, who else benefits as millions of workers need to reskill?? We’ve purchased shares of the two largest technical colleges in the US (more below in the positions section), as I believe that they’ll be dramatic beneficiaries of this reskilling trend. I’m sure there are other ancillary trends for us to try and capture, and we’re actively seeking them out as AI continues to evolve.
We’re decidedly an anti-tech fund. We watch tech as it drives trends, but we rarely invest in tech itself—instead I want to seek out the second-order beneficiaries, as tech is a really tough place to make money . The corollary is that in a market that’s driven by a handful of tech names, we’re likely to lag on the performance side. In a complete AI mania, as we’ve just witnessed, I’d expect us to lag even worse, hopefully catching up through outperformance on the flip side as AI names surrender their gains. It’s too soon to tell if the bubble has reached its peak, but for the first time since it began, I am recognizing a growing realization that much of the capital invested in AI has been squandered. If that becomes the accepted wisdom, I’d expect that the spending will slow, followed by the deluge.
It’s worth remembering that the AI buildout represents between 2 and 3% of GDP before including the multiplier effects inherent in any massive capex program. The Wealth Effect is many multiples larger. I feel fully justified in saying that this bubble now supports in excess of 10% of US GDP, with many other countries also benefitting mightily. I don’t mince words when I say that if this goes in reverse, it will be a mess. The fiber buildout within the internet bubble was a little more than 1% of US GDP, with a far smaller Wealth Effect. Even then, the unwind led to a mild recession, which coincidentally caused the S&P to decline by 49% and the NASDAQ to decline by 78%. I think the AI unwind could lead to a deeper recession and a nasty decline from much higher starting valuations.
In fact, it’s so scary to contemplate that I expect the government to step in and halt the decline. This will officially kick off phase II of “Project Zimbabwe.”
Positioning
In the Q1/26 letter, I noted that many of our names were breaking out to new highs, and that experience taught me that I should expect them to continue to trend higher—especially as I expected that many of them would report strong calendar Q1 earnings. While I was correct on the second part of this view (with few exceptions, earnings were quite strong), I was wrong about new highs. You could say that a quick pause in Feudalism was responsible, as we mostly saw a bifurcation in performance, and our only “Run-It-Hot” sector, refiners, powered higher. Unfortunately, this was offset by pullbacks in our Precious Metals basket (somehow war is bad for precious metals??) and our Emerging Markets basket, as war is potentially bad for them. Fortunately, Marex (MRX – USA) powered higher on elevated volatility, though our Event-Driven book gave back prior gains. In all, it was an uneventful quarter compared to many others, though frustrating all the same, as things seemed like they were setting up to blast off.
With the war seemingly on-again/off-again, depending on what middle-of-the-night posting Trump sends out on any given day, I remain hopeful that prior trends in motion can resume their upwards motion.
My Own Exposure to This Fund
I would never ask you to invest in this Fund, if I didn’t have the vast majority of my own capital also invested in this Fund. Due to an accident of history, for the past 8 years, I have had a large personal investment in a publicly traded company, Mongolia Growth Group (MGG) that I couldn’t figure out what to do with, as I couldn’t figure out how to liquidate the assets in Mongolia.
In 2025 after much toil and heartache, we started the process of returning capital to shareholders and during May of 2026, that process was completed. I personally received a large cash distribution, and invested almost all of it into the Fund as of July 1, excluding a portion that was used to pay off a loan tied to the office building that our Fund operates out of (you could say that paying off this loan was an investment in strengthening our Fund’s management company).
Subsequent to these transactions, my only investments outside of the fund are 50 Class B shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B – USA)—the legacy of a single share I bought while in college, so that I could attend the annual meetings, and my residual shares of MGG. At this point, MGG has a small pool of capital and is seeking to merge with some other company. Should we find an attractive merger partner, I will likely step down as Chairman of the company, ending a 15-year journey in public markets—I have already stepped down as CEO. Hopefully, this will complete a process to concentrate all of my personal investments through this fund.
I want you to know that there are positives and negatives to having the fund’s CIO with such a focused personal investment. On one side, I’m rather highly incentivized to get it right. On the other side, I’m likely to be rather risk-averse. Unlike anyone else in this fund, I do not have other investments to balance out my investment in this fund, and I literally cannot afford to get it wrong. This risk discipline can cut both ways, hence why I flag it. However, I want you to know that after many years, I’ve finally concentrated all of my personal investments into this fund.
Position Review (Top core position weightings at quarter end from largest to smallest)
Emerging Markets Basket
For the past decade and change, Emerging Markets have been in a relative bear market, as investor capital has migrated to US markets. In the process, many Emerging Markets have gotten quite cheap when looking at them from a valuation perspective. This Fund has a sweet spot for cheap assets, but Emerging Markets have been cheap for quite some time now. You could have said the same thing years ago and would likely be sitting on paper losses today, while having tied up capital. What you need is a catalyst that unlocks this value. I believe that catalyst is a potential decline in the US Dollar, tied to policy changes emanating from the Trump Administration. For MAGA policies to work, the US needs to follow a weak-dollar policy. At the same time, Emerging Markets, which frequently borrow in US Dollars, are hamstrung by a strong Dollar, but a weakening Dollar is a boon to their economies. As a result, I’ve built up positions in various Emerging Markets that are highly impacted by the US Dollar, with the view that a weakening Dollar should be a catalyst for asset values.
Precious Metals Basket
In an inflationary world with loss of faith in Central Banks, precious metals tend to do well. We own two companies that should be beneficiaries of precious metals either appreciating or at least staying at elevated prices. Neither of these companies is directly in the mining business, which is risky and capital-intensive—though one is a service provider to miners.
Technical Colleges; Lincoln Educational Services (LINC – USA) and Universal Technical Institute (UTI – USA)
These two technical colleges are helping to train the next generation of skilled tradespeople and medical workers. As AI reduces the demand for office workers, many millions of existing workers must be reskilled, while high school graduates will naturally seek out better job opportunities that offer higher wages, with less career risk.
LINC and UTI are the two largest technical colleges in the US. I expect them to continue opening new campuses and growing student counts. Based on management guidance, they’re both quite cheap looking out a few years, net of startup costs for new campuses. I think they’ll dramatically overshoot guidance in terms of new student starts, utilization and recruitment costs, leading to substantial margin growth on relatively fixed-cost structures.
Refiners
Refiners have suffered for over a decade (excluding the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine war), leading many Western refiners to shut, rather than invest substantial capital in upgrades to meet spurious mandates. Meanwhile, China flooded the world with refined product, destroying economics for everyone. Over the past few years, China has chosen to shut so-called teapot refiners and pivot larger refiners to petrochemicals. At the same time, demand for refined products has continued to grow, and for the first time in very many years, the crack spread has become elevated on a forward basis, indicating a tightness in the markets.
On the supply side, we have relatively good visibility in terms of which new refineries will come online, with some uneconomic ones still slated to shut. On the demand side, most data providers assume a rather balanced market with demand growth staying anemic. I don’t think this is a bad assumption, as the world is in a recession.
However, should there be economic growth, even just some wisps of growth as the Dollar declines and Emerging Markets (which have a huge marginal propensity to consume petroleum products as they see growth) recover, energy demand could exceed estimates.
This had previously been my energy thesis, basically that 8 billion people want the same standard of living that 1 billion in the First World have today. Now, I believe I’ve found a better way to express it, as it takes many years to build a new refinery. Meanwhile, new oil supply can come online far faster, leading to a bottleneck that extracts most of the pricing economics in a demand recovery.
We own two diversified refining companies with clean balance sheets, a strong propensity for buybacks, and a valuation that is at a substantial discount to replacement cost of their refineries. I think this trade works if governments return to pro-growth policies or the US Dollar weakens enough that EM energy demand can increase.
Think of this position as a hedge should global economic growth accelerate, though it can also experience periods of excess earnings should geopolitical volatility change global trading patterns and increase domestic crack spreads.
St. Joe (JOE – USA)
JOE owns approximately 165,000 acres in the Florida Panhandle. It has been widely known that JOE traded for a tiny fraction of its liquidation value for years, but without a catalyst, it was always perceived to be “dead money.”
Over the past few years, the population of the Panhandle has hit a critical mass where the Panhandle now has a center of gravity that is attracting people who want to live in one of the prettiest places in the country, with zero state income taxes and few of the problems of large cities.
The oddity of the current disdain for so-called “value investments” is that many of them are growing quite fast. I believe that JOE may grow revenue at a rapid rate for the foreseeable future, with earnings growing at a much faster clip. Meanwhile, I believe the shares trade at an attractive multiple on Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO), while substantial asset value is tossed in for free.
Besides the valuation, growth, and high Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of the business, why else do I like JOE? For starters, land tends to appreciate rapidly during periods of high inflation. More importantly, I believe we are witnessing a massive population migration as people with means choose to flee big cities for somewhere peaceful.
I suspect that every convulsion of urban chaos and/or tax-the-rich scheming will launch JOE shares higher, and it will ultimately be seen as the way to “play” the stream of very wealthy refugees fleeing for somewhere better.
In summary, our names mostly suffered a setback this quarter, despite putting up strong first quarter earnings results in the aggregate. I expect continued positive results for the second quarter, to be reported over the coming weeks.
On the flip-side, there is a growing realization that the AI buildout was a massive misallocation of capital. Should this buildout slow, I think we will get a steep decline in equity markets and finally set the stage for “Project Zimbabwe.” My plan remains to keep exposures lower than normal and await such a smash before deploying capital at bargain levels.
Sincerely,
Harris Kupperman
Appendix
*Net return varies from gross return as it accounts for management fees and incentive allocations. Please see the additional disclaimers on the final page of this document.
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
Mookie Betts tells FOX Business what was most important to him when creating a glove.
Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Mookie Betts has already influenced young players with his play over the years, and now they will be able to wear his glove.
Betts’ glove company, LGND, announced Monday a landmark partnership with Perfect Game, the world’s largest youth baseball and softball platform and scouting service, naming its glove the official glove of Perfect Game. The partnership will officially launch on July 27.
Betts told FOX Business that “it means a lot” that Perfect Game believed in him and his company.
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Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts (50) heads to the dugout after the final out of the bottom of the second inning against the Athletics at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, California, on June 30, 2026. (Scott Marshall/Imagn Images / IMAGN)
“It means a lot, man. It shows the belief that they have in my team, me, myself and the team, and what they have obviously, I think it’s really going to affect the young people coming up, cause they can show their personalities,” Betts told FOX Business in a recent interview.
“They can look and see that hopefully, one day all the big league guys that have the different models and they can aspire to be them.”
Perfect Game Chairman Rick Thurman said the partnership is everything that represents what the youth baseball company is trying to be.
“This partnership represents everything Perfect Game strives to deliver to athletes, which is access, authenticity and products shaped by the needs of players,” Thurman said in a news release.
Mookie Betts wears a LGND glove from the “Mook Series.” (LGND Sports/Perfect Game / Unknown)
“Mookie is one of the most accomplished and respected players in baseball, but beyond that, he understands what young athletes value. LGND was built with those athletes in mind, and we believe this will redefine expectations for baseball equipment partnerships.”
The launch features premium glove lines, both of which were developed with player performance and feedback in mind.
The “Mook Series” features Betts’ signature stamped in the palm, his game-worn colorway and the iconic 50 Tri-Star logo embroidered on the thumb, giving players an authentic connection to a future Hall of Famer.
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Mookie Betts wears a LGND glove from the “Mook Series.” (LGND Sports/Perfect Game / Unknown)
The “MVRK Series” delivers the same premium Japanese leather construction and craftsmanship in a collection designed for players who want professional-level performance with distinctive styling and versatility across multiple positions.
Betts said he has been using the glove all year and said the integrity of the glove has held up. His goal with LGND is to allow young kids to express themselves through a glove, while also ensuring it is well-crafted.
Betts is a four-time World Series champion, American League MVP winner, an eight-time All-Star, a seven-time Silver Slugger and a six-time Gold Glove winner.
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Ollie Priestley is not just doing any mechanical apprenticeship.
Working at specialist car restoration business Tolman, Priestley, 29, has embarked on a “heritage vehicle technician” apprenticeship. He’s learning the skills to work on modern classic cars that need a mix of traditional and new techniques to restore.
New technologies are enabling those techniques – from computer-aided design (CAD) for new vehicle components, to 3D printing them, as well as learning the intricacies of a car’s electronic control units.
“I wanted to develop the skills that allowed me to work on the cars that I love and excite me, like the Peugeot 205 GTi,” says Leicestershire-based Priestley.
“Getting to know how to make things keeps me focused and engaged. I’ve just fabricated a gearbox mount for a classic BMW. It’s cool to know that the things I create will bring the car back to life.”
Tolman founder Chris Tolman says what Priestley is learning sets him apart from apprentices in mainstream car dealerships, who, due to digital tools, are increasingly becoming “just fitters”.
“The computer identifies the issue and they swap the part. For specialist car businesses, our technicians need to identify and understand a problem, and then be creative and innovative to find the answer,” says Tolman, who is based in Warwickshire.
Tolman’s point highlights an important question hanging over how trade apprentices are being taught today, as technology plays an increasingly bigger role.
As a result, apprenticeships are moving up the education value chain.
For example, Priestley’s three-year apprenticeship, which he is doing through the Heritage Skills Academy in Bicester (HSA), was introduced in 2018 to incorporate 3D printing and CAD amongst other digital skills, alongside essential skills like welding and glazing.
It is a level three apprenticeship offering the equivalent of three A-levels. It replaces the previous level two and three “classic vehicle framework” apprenticeship.
HSA managing director John Pitchforth says it’s “radically improved” as it combines “modern technology with engineering fundamentals”.
Government apprenticeship data also shows that the number of people starting level two intermediate apprenticeships have fallen by nearly a quarter over the past year, in favour of people starting higher level apprenticeships – level four to seven.
Level six and seven respectively equate to bachelors and masters degrees. Level three apprenticeship numbers have remained stable.
But with tech having a growing influence over the curriculum, are apprentices now just learning how to run computer software, at the expense of the actual skills of a specific trade?
HSA’s Pitchforth argues that the organisation’s apprentices come out highly skilled – perhaps more so than those from other programmes.
“When modern engineers come to us to transfer into our sector, they often lack the basic engineering principles and are unable to diagnose and repair vehicle systems without a computer telling them what’s wrong,” he says.
Did you get to see the 2024 film Civil War, with its dystopian depiction of a present day USA in the midst of a violent meltdown?
What made it such an effective thriller was that it all seemed so frighteningly real. Although the two sides in that civil war were fictitious, it hit a raw nerve precisely because of the very obvious divides that scar modern day America.
But interestingly it was actually written and directed by a British film-maker, Alex Garland, and he expressed worries about his home country, as well as the US. In both countries, he told the Guardian, “there’s a lot to be very concerned about”.
He’s not alone. If you are an avid user of social media, you could almost believe that we are a nation disunited enough to have a full-on civil war of our own. And even away from the exaggerated adversarialism online, there are plenty of people worried that Britain is gripped by uncontrollable rage.
It’s a sense of discord that Britain’s new prime minister, Andy Burnham, seems to recognise. Since announcing his run for the Makerfield seat in May, he’s repeatedly urged Britons to forget about party labels or factional identities and instead unite around pride in their local area. “Place first, not party first”, is how he puts it.
And as he entered Downing Street on Monday, he called for a “new national sense of unity, of common purpose and positivity”.
But it’s worth asking: just how divided really is Britain?
Jonathan Reynolds has been appointed secretary of state for business, innovation, science and trade, returning to the department he led at the start of Sir Keir Starmer’s government, as new prime minister Andy Burnham scraps the standalone science and technology department just three years after its creation.
The appointment hands Reynolds a substantially enlarged empire. The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT), created under Rishi Sunak in 2023, has been abolished, with the bulk of its responsibilities folded into the new super-ministry. According to the Financial Times, officials had been asked to move remaining functions to the Department for Culture, Media and Sport, with oversight of AI in the public sector passing to cabinet secretary Antonia Romeo rather than a minister.
Reynolds held the business and trade brief from July 2024 until last September, when he handed the role to Peter Kyle and became chief whip, a job he made little secret of not enjoying. His first spell was defined by trade agreement negotiations and the emergency legislation that secured the future of British Steel’s blast furnaces, and he built strong relationships with employers and trade unions along the way.
For business owners, the return of a known quantity will be welcome. The manner of his arrival is another matter. Scrapping DSIT sparked a revolt among tech founders and investors within hours of the plans emerging, and the row now lands squarely on Reynolds’ desk.
The practical stakes are considerable. DSIT sponsored UKRI, the research funding body that sits above Innovate UK grants, as well as the Government Digital Service. All of that machinery now goes into flux just as firms are being urged to adopt AI and invest in innovation.
Julian Harris, chief executive of techUK, and Dom Hallas, executive director of Startup Coalition, called the proposal “the wrong change at the wrong time” in a letter to the new prime minister when the plans first surfaced.
Matt Clifford, who served as Starmer’s AI opportunities adviser, was blunter still. “This would be a big mistake,” he wrote on X. “Right now is a critical moment for tech as an economic and national security issue. Tying up our most senior science and tech officials in a reorg wastes time and energy that’s desperately needed for the actual substance.”
Burnham’s calculation is that a single, muscular business department serves his reindustrialisation agenda better than a separate science ministry. “I will be a pro-business leader of the Labour Party as I was a pro-business mayor of Greater Manchester,” he said in his first speech as Labour leader. One Labour figure told the FT the enlarged department could eventually be rebranded a “Ministry of Industry”.
Business groups are prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, up to a point. Rain Newton-Smith, chief executive of the CBI, said: “We want Andy Burnham and his team to succeed. ‘Manchesterism’ provides a coherent theory of growth… The challenge is execution.”
That word, execution, is the one for SME owners to hold on to. Sentiment towards the new administration is fragile, with just 13 per cent of firms expecting taxes to fall under Labour’s new leadership. Reynolds inherits goodwill from his first stint, but also a department mid-rewiring, a tech sector in open dissent and a grants system that thousands of growing firms need to keep functioning while the nameplates change.
His first job is proving that a bigger department means a stronger champion for business, not a slower one.
Paul Jones
Harvard alumni and former New York Times journalist. Editor of Business Matters for over 15 years, the UKs largest business magazine. I am also head of Capital Business Media’s automotive division working for clients such as Red Bull Racing, Honda, Aston Martin and Infiniti.
FOX Business correspondent Madison Alworth reports that it’s likely the service will expand further on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
Burger King is making a major push to improve customer satisfaction, announcing Monday that it will remake any unsatisfactory Whopper for free and offer guests a complimentary Whopper on their next visit.
The fast-food chain said the “Whopper Guarantee” initiative will launch alongside a new team of employees called “Your Way Champions,” who will be specifically dedicated to addressing customer needs rather than solely overseeing restaurant operations.
“Burger King is introducing two new initiatives designed to improve the moments Guests told the brand matter most – providing a consistent, accurate and welcoming in-restaurant experience – by introducing Your Way Champions and the Whopper® Guarantee,” the Florida-based chain said.
The move comes about four months after Burger King launched a listening initiative inviting guests to share feedback directly with company President Tom Curtis through his phone number. The chain said it received thousands of calls and texts highlighting areas for improvement.
BURGER KING MAKES CHANGES TO SIGNATURE WHOPPER FOR FIRST TIME IN NEARLY A DECADE
The new Burger King Whopper is served in a box instead of a paper wrapper. (Burger King / Fox News)
Under the Whopper Guarantee, guests can have any Whopper remade immediately for free if it does not meet their expectations.
The company will also offer guests a complimentary signature burger on their next visit to make up for the inconvenience.
“Guests expect to have it served hot, and exactly the way they ordered it. That’s why if a Whopper® doesn’t meet a Guest’s expectations, the brand will not only continue to remake it on the spot, but they’ll offer the Guest’s next Whopper for free,” the chain said.
WISCONSIN DEMANDS $1M FROM BURGER KING FRANCHISEE OVER ALLEGED VIOLATIONS
An exterior view of a Burger King fast food restaurant in Danville, Pennsylvania. (Paul Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images / Getty Images)
To redeem the offer, guests can scan a QR code inside their Whopper box to receive a unique six-digit code that can be used for a free classic Whopper during their next Burger King visit.
The new Your Way Champions will serve as a “clear point of contact” for guests throughout their visit, helping ensure orders are prepared correctly and resolving issues when needed.
Employees in the role will be identifiable by their Your Way Champion uniforms and will welcome guests, double-check orders, focus on customization requests and provide assistance aimed at creating a more guest-focused experience.
An employee greets customers inside a Burger King location. (Burger King)
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“When Guests choose us, they expect high-quality food, orders made the way they asked, and a team that’s there when they need us,” Burger King said. “That’s what these changes are about. We’re raising the standard in our restaurants, so every Guest feels like they made the right choice.”
| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QSR | RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL INC. | 73.96 | -1.05 | -1.40% |
Burger King said additional initiatives based on guest feedback will roll out throughout the year, including new menu announcements expected later this summer.
- Thailand’s economy has slowed sharply over decades, with growth falling from around 7% to roughly 2%, driven by repeated crises, structural weaknesses, and a shifting global trade environment. Stagnation has worsened household debt, suppressed wages, deepened inequality, and contributed to broader social and institutional problems.
- The author argues that stimulus spending alone is insufficient and that Thailand must reform its production base across agriculture, industry, and services. Priorities include modernising farming toward high-value outputs, expanding film and food sectors, linking foreign investment to local supply chains, and improving labour force participation and productivity to raise growth potential toward 4.7%.
Thailand’s economy, once a regional powerhouse, is now gasping for air. Yet the next wave of growth is within reach. With the right fuel and new engines, we can regain momentum. But first, we must understand what went wrong.
Economies rarely collapse overnight. They fade when they cannot recover from shocks or adapt to new realities. That is Thailand’s story.
Repeated crises — from the 1997 Tom Yam Kung crash and the 2008 financial crisis to the Covid-19 pandemic — pushed growth from 7% to 5%, then below 4%, and now just around 2%. During the Covid years, growth per person was only 0.1%.
Meanwhile, global trade has flipped. The era of globalisation is giving way to geopolitical rivalry and protectionism. With outdated engines, Thailand has slipped to the bottom of Asia; only Japan grows more slowly. Stay on this path, and Vietnam’s per-capita income will overtake ours within 20 years. The middle-income trap will tighten. High-income status will drift out of reach.
Systems crack
When growth stalls, households feel it first. Inequality ensures that. Household debt now exceeds 80% of GDP. Banks avoid SME lending. Governments turn to subsidies, pushing public debt even higher. This cannot hold.
The problem is not unemployment. It’s low wages. Workers cannot survive without overtime. Labour’s share of GDP keeps shrinking, deepening inequality and social strain.
Corruption rises when an economy is stuck: police acting like crime syndicates; clergy scandals; judicial lapses, even sports associations accused of cheating athletes. Slow growth cracks the system far beyond economics.
With people trapped in insecure jobs and neighbouring countries hosting scam hubs, Thailand is now entangled in transnational scamming and money-laundering networks. The lack of a serious crackdown raises doubts about the government itself.
If growth keeps sinking, Thailand risks sliding into a “grey economy.” Add marijuana, casinos, and call-centre scams, and quality investors and tourists will stay away. Reviving the economy requires real growth engines.
The heart of a new development model is simple: build enough “good” jobs. Jobs with middle-class incomes, stability, benefits, and skills. Good jobs stabilises society and make politics less volatile. They give people something to build on.
This is what political parties should compete to deliver.
Limits of stimulus
Why are we growing so slowly? If we assume Thailand is still a high-potential economy, every downturn looks cyclical, and stimulus seems like the answer. That has been the playbook for decades.
But if Thailand is actually low-potential, stimulus is not enough. We must reform production and restructure the economy.
Picture Thailand as an airplane. One wing carries four “spending engines”: consumption, private investment, public spending, and exports. All are stalling. Household debt limits consumption. Tight lending limits private investment. High public debt limits state spending. Exports suffer from global slowdown and protectionism.
The other wing holds four “production engines”: agriculture, industry, services, and public services. They are underpowered. To fly again, the captain must strengthen production, not spending.
Structural fault lines
Where are the bottlenecks?
Agriculture relies too much on commodities, rising and falling with global prices. Rubber exports remain below their level 10 years ago.
Industry is squeezed by global technological shifts, especially in autos. Competition is fierce, but our productivity is stuck because we cannot keep pace.
Tourism, once the crown jewel, has not regained pre-Covid revenue. Safety concerns drag it down.
Across sectors, three problems stand out: a shrinking labour force, weak investment, and low productivity.
Labour has been falling for decades due to low fertility. Preventable deaths from road accidents and pollution remain shockingly high. Many workers leave the labour force by age 55. Military conscription removes 70,000 productive workers each year. As education quality plunges, it can no longer offset a shrinking workforce.
Investment is weak. Public investment is limited by tight budgets and low tax revenue, much of which goes to fixed expenses such as salaries. Extending retirement age will strain budgets further.
Thailand has foreign direct investment, but much does not links to local supply chains. Some firms register here only to access tax incentives. On top of that, rigid regulations deter genuine investors.
Meanwhile. productivity suffers from misallocated resources, underinvestment in R&D, and failure to turn research into products.
Lean development
Globalisation’s retreat makes everything harder: US tariffs at 90-year highs, Europe’s green rules, China’s oversupply pushing prices down, and cheap imports flooding Thailand destroying local businesses. With a weakened WTO, countries now rely on bilateral deals.
It’s clear. Thailand must build new growth engines. We cannot rely on massive industrial expansion as before. A better starting point is “lean development”: use the people we have more efficiently, remove waste, and make every baht count. Then modernise agriculture, industry, and services step by step.
This is urgent. Most listed companies are struggling. One-third of manufacturing firms and more than a quarter of consumer companies are loss-making. Real estate and construction face the same fate.
New growth hopes
So how do we build a new growth engine?
First, modernise agriculture. Today, subsidies trap 30% of workers in low-earning farming. We need smaller, higher-value production like Japan’s melons, uni, and Kobe wagyu. Thai bamboo, biochar, sea crabs, and bananas show similar promise: they use fewer workers but generate more income.
Thai food offers even bigger potential. We have one restaurant per hundred people — street food not included. Yet Singapore has more eateries on the Michelin Bib Gourmand list.
The difference is state support: investing in quality, preserving heritage recipes, using technology, and promoting restaurants abroad. With a small domestic market, we must also look outward and expand online.
Film production is another bright spot. In the first nine months of this year, 450 foreign shoots brought in about seven billion baht. Jurassic Park, White Lotus, and Alien Earth were filmed here. Most spending stays in Thailand, creating high-income jobs and distributing earnings widely. With more state support, also for Thai producers, film could become a major growth engine.
Industry must modernise too : competing on quality, not price; expanding into ASEAN markets; shifting to green products; and building stronger Thai brands. Combustion engines will remain in demand in developing countries for at least a decade, while new opportunities emerge in green steel, pet food, and other eco-products.
Call to action
To recover, Thailand must act on three fronts: labour, investment, and productivity.
We must cut preventable deaths, reduce PM2.5, expand childcare and senior care to raise female participation, reform conscription, attract skilled workers, and improve education quality.
We must stop losing revenue through unnecessary tax privileges. Thailand has capital, but wastes it propping up outdated subsidies instead of modernising agriculture. Link foreign investors to local supply chains, clear regulatory bottlenecks and investment will follow.
Finally, productivity must rise. Freer trade helps, as many current rules hold us back. R&D must turn ideas into products.
If we succeed on these fronts, Thailand’s growth potential could rise from 2–2.3% to about 4.7% — enough to escape the middle-income trap by 2041.
Within 15 years, our economy will shift toward modern services. Workers will move from low-value jobs. Domestic spending will strengthen. Exports will matter less in a world of rising barriers.
Thailand cannot stay on the old path. Our task now is to build new engines — ones that create “good” jobs. That means new skills, new innovation, and less red tape.
If we act, those engines are within reach. They are ours to build — piece by piece, sector by sector, job by job. The only question is whether we are ready to begin.
Note: Somkiat Tangkitvanich, PhD, is president of the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI). This article is an edited version of his keynote speech at TDRI’s Annual Conference on Reimagining Thailand’s Development Model, held on November 17. TDRI’s policy analyses appear in the Bangkok Post on alternate Wednesdays.
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As artificial intelligence reshapes workplaces across industries, one hiring executive says job seekers worried about AI replacing them may be focusing on the wrong challenge.
Instead of looking for candidates with years of AI experience, employers increasingly want workers who can prove they’re willing to learn, according to Sultan Khan, head of talent acquisition and human resources at San Francisco-based OpenArt AI.
“The willingness to learn is the biggest thing that we really need right now,” Khan told FOX Business. “The people that are open to learning are the ones that we’re seeing grab jobs really quickly in this current landscape.”
His comments come as employers increasingly seek workers with AI skills. According to PwC’s 2025 AI Jobs Barometer, the skills required for AI-exposed jobs are changing 66% faster than in other occupations, while workers with AI skills receive an average 56% wage premium compared with those in similar roles.
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Instead of looking for candidates with years of AI experience, employers increasingly want workers who can prove they’re willing to learn, Sultan Khan said. (Philip Dulian/dpa/Getty Images)
OpenArt, an AI-powered creative platform with more than 8 million monthly users, has grown its workforce by roughly 300% over the past seven to eight months, according to Khan, and is hiring across engineering, product, design, marketing and creative roles.
But Khan said resumes packed with years of AI experience aren’t necessarily what stand out.
“I think the biggest thing that helps make people stand out to me is when I see that they’ve done a lot of side projects or a lot of learning,” he said, pointing to applicants who complete AI courses, earn certifications or experiment with AI tools on their own.
Because generative AI remains relatively new, Khan said recruiters understand many applicants won’t have years of hands-on experience. Instead, he said, hiring managers are looking for people who show curiosity and adaptability.
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Khan said resumes packed with years of AI experience aren’t necessarily what stand out. (Angus Mordant/Bloomberg)
“The curiosity is another big thing,” Khan said. “The ones that are really eager and willing to learn how to adapt it into their current workflow are the ones that are getting tons of calls from recruiters.”
That mindset isn’t limited to software engineers.
While OpenArt is recruiting engineers and product managers, Khan said the company is also hiring creative directors, designers and video editors who want to incorporate AI into visual storytelling.
“AI isn’t the creative aspect of things,” Khan said. “It’s the human behind it. AI only does what you tell it to do.”
Khan’s advice for recent college graduates is to start using AI before an employer asks you to. (Photographer: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Khan acknowledged concerns that AI could replace workers but argued the technology is more likely to change existing jobs than eliminate them.
“AI isn’t going to eliminate jobs,” he said. “It’s just going to transform jobs as a whole.”
His outlook echoes part of a broader trend identified by the World Economic Forum, which estimated in its 2025 Future of Jobs Report that technological advances, including AI, could create 170 million new jobs globally while displacing 92 million by 2030, resulting in a net gain of 78 million jobs. The report also found employers increasingly expect workers to build AI-related skills as adoption spreads.
For recent college graduates entering an uncertain labor market, Khan’s advice is straightforward: start using AI before an employer asks you to.
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He recommends researching the AI platforms commonly used in a chosen field, building projects with those tools and showcasing that work on resumes and LinkedIn profiles.
“The biggest takeaway is really to start learning how to adopt into the AI space rather than only putting it under a negative light,” Khan said.
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Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said the global aerospace company has begun early work on a possible new airplane design but is not yet ready to move forward.
Ortberg, who became president and CEO in August 2024, said Boeing is spending “time and money” evaluating its options and preparing to introduce a new design when the company is ready, according to The Wall Street Journal.
“We don’t have a firm configuration right now,” Ortberg said ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow near London. “We’re evaluating trade studies. You create a baseline, and you evaluate things against the baseline, and then you change.”
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Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg speaks during a media event at the company’s delivery center in Seattle on Jan. 7, 2026. (M. Scott Brauer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Before launching a new airplane, Boeing wants to improve its finances, develop the necessary technology and deliver aircraft that are already behind schedule, Ortberg said.
“Certainly, getting our financial house in order is a part of our being ready,” Ortberg said. “That’s going to take another couple years.”
Boeing is currently focused on delivering delayed models, including its long-awaited 777X wide-body jet, The Wall Street Journal reported.
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The Boeing Co. chalet is seen at the Farnborough International Airshow in Farnborough, England, on July 20, 2026. (Betty Laura Zapata/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“Orders are not our challenge,” Ortberg said. “Our challenge is getting these orders delivered.”
Boeing also kept the 777X in the U.S. rather than conducting demonstration flights at the Farnborough airshow while the aircraft awaits Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The FAA could approve Boeing’s 737 MAX 7 as soon as late July. Ortberg said he expects the larger MAX 10 to follow not long afterward, the outlet reported.
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The Boeing logo is displayed outside the company’s chalet at the Farnborough International Airshow in Farnborough, England, on July 20, 2026. (Betty Laura Zapata/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Ortberg said airline customers want Boeing to focus on improving production and reliability across its current lineup before introducing a new jet, according to CNBC.
Boeing and Airbus dominate the large commercial aircraft market, and a future Boeing airplane could help the company compete with Airbus’ A320 family, the outlet reported.
The comments come as Boeing adds to its order book. In May, President Donald Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to order 200 Boeing jets during a high-level meeting in Beijing.
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Boeing could not immediately be reached by FOX Business for comment.
Business
Dow Little Changed as Oil Eases From $90 a Barrel Amid US-Iran Strikes, Big Tech Earnings Loom Ahead
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed Monday morning, trading at 52,127.90, down 18.52 points, or 0.036%, as investors weighed easing oil prices against continued volatility in the technology sector heading into a heavy week of corporate earnings reports.
U.S. stocks broadly moved higher earlier in the session, with the S&P 500 adding 0.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbing nearly 0.8%, buoyed by a rebound in semiconductor stocks following a turbulent week that had seen sharp losses across the chip sector. Oil prices, meanwhile, eased somewhat after briefly touching $90 a barrel over the weekend amid an escalating exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran.
Markets navigate competing pressures
Monday’s relatively muted trading in the Dow reflected a broader market attempting to balance several simultaneous crosscurrents. On one hand, chip stocks were advancing ahead of a wave of anticipated earnings reports from major technology companies later this week, offering some relief following a period of sharp declines across the semiconductor sector. On the other, geopolitical tensions tied to the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran continued to weigh on broader sentiment, even as crude prices pulled back somewhat from their weekend peak.
Markets had closed lower Friday, dragged down by a steep selloff in megacap technology and semiconductor shares that extended a difficult stretch for those sectors. Despite that decline, all three major indexes still finished the week higher overall, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.63%, the Dow adding 0.23%, and the Nasdaq climbing 1.02%, even as the small-cap Russell 2000 slipped 0.42%.
Entering the heart of earnings season
With corporate earnings season now in full swing, market strategists have increasingly focused on how markets are reacting to results rather than simply whether companies are beating expectations. TheStreet Pro contributor James “Rev Shark” DePorre noted that markets are now entering what he described as the heart of earnings season, adding that the central question is whether recent volatility in chip and technology stocks has meaningfully shifted how investors respond to upcoming results.
“The big question is whether the recent carnage has changed expectations enough to change the response to the numbers,” DePorre said. “Will in-line reports be good enough, or does the sell-the-news dynamic that has been punishing some strong results remain in charge?”
DePorre pointed to a notable pattern already emerging this earnings season: more than 86% of S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far have beaten analyst expectations, yet markets have continued to sell off shares in many of those companies regardless. “Beats are not the primary issue,” he said. “Guidance and capex are.”
Geopolitical tensions continue to shape trading
Beyond the earnings-driven dynamics, the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran remained a significant factor influencing market sentiment. Oil prices had wavered following a new round of U.S. airstrikes against Iranian targets over the weekend, which also coincided with the announcement of another American service member’s death connected to the conflict.
Despite the continued military escalation, there were some signs of a potential diplomatic opening. According to Iran’s state news agency IRNA, cited by Germany’s DPA news agency, Iran has received proposals from international mediators regarding a possible resumption of negotiations with the United States. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran would continue to defend itself “resolutely” even as those diplomatic channels remain open.
A volatile month for major indexes
Monday’s trading continues what has been an unusually volatile month for U.S. equity markets. The Dow reached an all-time high earlier in July before pulling back amid rotation out of artificial intelligence-linked names and rising oil prices, a pattern that has repeated itself several times over recent weeks as investors continue debating the sustainability of the AI investment boom that fueled much of this year’s earlier market gains.
Market strategists have described the recent turbulence in chip and technology stocks as reflecting a broader reassessment of AI-related valuations rather than a fundamental shift in the underlying economic outlook. One analyst previously described the pattern as a rotation out of a sector that had been extremely strong for months, combined with a broader revaluation of the AI trade itself, a dynamic that has continued to play out in fits and starts throughout the summer.
What comes next for markets
With Big Tech earnings reports from companies including Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon expected in the coming days, market participants are looking to those results, and particularly the accompanying guidance on capital expenditure plans, as the next major catalyst likely to determine whether the recent rotation into and out of technology stocks continues or stabilizes.
At the same time, the trajectory of the U.S.-Iran conflict remains a key wildcard for oil prices and broader market sentiment. Should diplomatic talks referenced by Iranian officials gain traction in the coming days, that could provide some relief to energy markets; continued escalation, however, would likely keep crude prices elevated and add further uncertainty to an already turbulent trading environment heading into the back half of the summer.
Wall Street’s three major indices have finished lower while investors looked for moves toward Middle East de-escalation and waited for earnings reports due from major technology companies later in the week.
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