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Roundhill’s Election-Event Contract ETFs Could Be Groundbreaking

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Roundhill Investments, a US-based ETF issuer, has moved to bring six exchange-traded funds tied to event contracts that bet on the outcome of the 2028 US presidential election. The filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission describes ETFs that would use a specialized derivative known as event contracts to speculate on political results. If approved, the products could broaden access to prediction-market-style exposure within a traditional exchange-traded wrapper, a development that ETF observers characterized as potentially groundbreaking. The six funds cover presidential, Senate, and House outcomes across both major parties: Roundhill Democratic President ETF, Roundhill Republican President ETF, Roundhill Democratic Senate ETF, Roundhill Republican Senate ETF, Roundhill Democratic House ETF, and Roundhill Republican House ETF. The filing also flags that regulators continue to weigh how such instruments should be classified and regulated.

The prospect of an ETF-based route into event contracts has drawn commentary from industry observers. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted in a post that, if the SEC were to approve the lineup, the impact could be “potentially groundbreaking.” He argued that the ETF structure could unlock a broader set of prediction-market applications that are more accessible to a wide range of investors than raw prediction markets on bespoke platforms. The filing itself describes the objective of the fund tied to the winning election outcome as capital-focused, while cautioning that the other five funds face materially higher risk where investors could see substantial losses.

The Roundhill filing explicitly describes the structure as investing in, or gaining exposure to, a class of instruments known as event contracts. The approach would apply to the presidential outcomes as well as to control of the Senate and the House, spanning both major parties. In the filing, Roundhill underscores that while the fund aiming to capture the ultimate election result seeks capital appreciation, the remaining five ETFs could lose “almost all” of their value, depending on how market events unfold and how the contracts converge on settlement. The document warns that a rapid convergence between opposing event outcomes could trigger sharp NAV movements, a phenomenon described as highly atypical for conventional ETFs.

The regulatory dimension is front and center. The filing notes that US rules governing event contracts are evolving, and any future classification changes or “restrictions” could affect the funds. The document also flags the possibility that policymakers may limit, suspend, modify, or even prohibit certain political outcome contracts, should concerns around investor protection or market integrity intensify. Investors who are uncomfortable with regulatory uncertainty are urged to avoid purchasing shares. The discussion highlights the broader tension between liquidity, innovation, and consumer safeguards in the growing ecosystem of prediction-market-style financial products.

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The debate around prediction markets has gained momentum alongside regulatory signals from US authorities. In early February, reports indicated the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had moved to withdraw a Biden-administration proposal seeking to ban sports and political prediction markets, a sign that a more permissive stance could be emerging for certain forms of event-driven contracts. The regulatory arc remains a key variable shaping how Roundhill’s six ETFs would perform in practice, particularly if classification or restriction decisions shift in coming months. The evolving framework raises questions about how these funds would be priced, settled, and taxed, and whether they would attract meaningful liquidity given the novel nature of the underlying contracts.

Industry observers note that the intersection of traditional equity markets and prediction markets could mark a broader shift in how investors access political risk and price uncertainty. The Roundhill filing arrives as the so-called prediction-market conversation grows more nuanced, with debates about whether such markets should focus on hedging price-exposure risk or remain oriented toward speculative bets on short-term political outcomes. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has weighed in on the topic, arguing that prediction markets, if left to their current trajectory, risk over-convergence on short-horizon bets and price swings that are detached from longer-term value creation. In a widely cited post, he called for shifting toward marketplaces that hedge price exposure for consumers, a stance that aligns with ongoing discussions about consumer protection in digital markets. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has become a focal point in these debates as developers and investors consider how to align incentives with real-world utility. For context, Buterin’s remarks have been echoed in discussions around hedging mechanisms and risk controls in prediction-market ecosystems.

The broader conversation around event contracts and their perceived suitability for mainstream investors continues to evolve. The Roundhill proposal sits at a moment when traditional asset managers are experimenting with derivative-like structures to capture political risk, while regulators voice caution about liquidity, reliability, and the integrity of price discovery. The SEC’s review process for these six ETFs will hinge on whether event contracts can offer transparent settlement, robust risk disclosures, and a structure that can scale liquidity to support a diversified investor base. The filing’s emphasis on the potential for significant NAV volatility in the five riskier funds underscores the need for clear risk management frameworks and investor education as these products progress through the regulatory pipeline. For readers, the main takeaway is that the integration of event contracts into an ETF wrapper could represent a notable pivot in how political risk is monetized, even as the regulatory environment remains a decisive constraint on immediate execution.

As the market watches for ongoing developments, the Roundhill filing serves as a litmus test for whether prediction-market-style derivatives can be reconciled with the governance and investor protections that underpin traditional ETFs. While the six-fund lineup targets different political outcomes, the core insight for investors is the relative risk asymmetry: one fund may pursue capital appreciation from the ultimate election result, while the other five grapple with convergence events that can push net asset value sharply in either direction. The path to approval remains uncharted, and the regulatory equation—balancing innovation with safeguards—will likely dictate the pace and shape of any eventual launch. In the meantime, the discourse surrounding prediction markets enters a more formal, regulated phase, with the potential to broaden access to politically linked derivatives for a broader cohort of investors while inviting heightened scrutiny from policymakers and market participants alike.

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Why it matters

The Roundhill filing matters because it tests whether prediction-market concepts can be packaged into the familiar ETF format. If approved, it could provide a regulated, transparent avenue for investors to engage with political risk using a market-based mechanism that has historically lived outside mainstream asset management. By packaging six distinct event contracts into a single lineup, the fund family aims to offer diversified exposure to different branches of government, potentially enabling portfolios to hedge or express views on the political calendar without stepping outside established exchange-traded infrastructure.

For the broader crypto and digital-asset discourse, the development signals a continuing convergence between traditional finance instruments and more experimental market ideas. The emergence of ETF-based event contracts could feed into ongoing debates about how to design markets that are resilient, accessible, and protective of ordinary investors while still enabling innovative risk transfer. The attention from figures like Balchunas and the ongoing commentary from prominent crypto thinkers, including Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin, underscores the cross-pollination between traditional ETFs and decentralized finance conversations about hedging, price discovery, and consumer protection. As policymakers refine regulatory guidance, proponents argue that a regulated ETF wrapper could deliver improved transparency, settlement mechanics, and liquidity compared with niche, permissioned prediction platforms.

For participants in the prediction-market space, Roundhill’s approach may set a precedent for how event-driven instruments could be evaluated by mainstream markets. Stakeholders will be watching whether the funds can attract sufficient liquidity, how settlement will be determined, and how sensitive the NAV will be to shifting political narratives and polling trajectories. The tension between potential liquidity gains and risk of rapid NAV swings will be central to any future discussions about the viability of these vehicles in a volatile political landscape.

What to watch next

  • SEC decisions on the Roundhill ETF filings and the final product terms, including eligibility criteria and settlement procedures.
  • Any regulatory updates or guidance on event contracts, including potential reclassifications or restrictions that could affect the funds.
  • Regulatory commentary from the CFTC or other bodies regarding prediction markets and related derivatives.
  • Market liquidity and investor demand for election-related ETFs as the 2028 cycle progresses.

Sources & verification

  • Roundhill’s filing with the SEC detailing six election-event ETFs, including the six fund names and their objectives: SEC filing.
  • Eric Balchunas’s remarks about potential impact if approved: X post.
  • Regulatory discussions around prediction markets and CFTC coverage, including referenced coverage on the Biden-era proposal status: CFTC stance.
  • Vitalik Buterin’s comments on prediction markets and hedging, including his X post: X post, and a related piece on hedging: Buterin hedging discussion.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin, stocks rally on hopes of US-Israel-Iran war ending

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Bitcoin briefly touched a fresh intra-day high near $68,589 as markets absorbed a mix of geopolitics and macro signals. The move came alongside a broad risk-on rally in U.S. equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing more than 1,125 points, the S&P 500 rising around 2.9%, and the Nasdaq advancing about 3.8%. The day’s headlines centered on chatter about ending a war involving the United States, Israel and Iran, buoying sentiment even as traders remained wary of sustaining gains in the crypto market.

On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he could consider ending the conflict with Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz partially open but no formal statement issued. Separately, unconfirmed reports attributed to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian suggested Tehran might be seeking a path to exit the war, though such remarks have not been independently verified. Whether the statements prove reliable or not, they contributed to a mood shift that encouraged risk-taking across traditional markets, even as crypto traders kept their expectations in check.

Despite the synchronized bounce in risk assets, observers caution that Bitcoin’s ability to sustain the breakout remains uncertain. Analysts cited by Cointelegraph highlighted that a daily close above the 50-day moving average near $68,879 would be a meaningful signal of a potential trend shift. From there, some see room for a liquidity-driven extension toward approximately $82,000, but only if buyers step in with durable, directional commitments rather than headline-driven moves.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin briefly rose to about $68,589 as geopolitical and macro headlines supported a risk-on backdrop.
  • U.S. equities logged a broad rally: the Dow up by more than 1,125 points, the S&P 500 up roughly 2.91%, and the Nasdaq up about 3.83%.
  • Analysts say a daily close above the 50-day moving average near $68,879 would mark a potential trend change and could unlock further upside if leveraged players unwind or cover shorts.
  • Crypto traders remained skeptical of a durable breakout, with much price action driven by headlines, equities, and perpetual futures rather than sustained buy-side conviction in spot markets.
  • Cointelegraph notes point to flat open interest in futures and weak spot demand since the Feb. 6 sell-off below $60,000, alongside short-term traders selling below cost basis around $85,800 and stablecoin inflows near a two-year low.

The market backdrop: what’s really pushing the price action

In the broader market, the relief rally follows a period of heightened attention to policy and conflict dynamics. The weekend and early-week headlines suggested at least a possibility of de-escalation, with Trump’s communications and unconfirmed statements from Iranian leadership contributing to a mood swing that benefited risk assets. However, the cryptocurrency market did not display the same confident impulse that characterized equities, underscoring a divergence between macro optimism and crypto-specific demand.

In a sense, Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains tethered to a mix of headline risk and technical thresholds. The $68,879 level—the approximate 50-day moving average—has emerged as a practical line in the sand. A daily close above that level would be interpreted by many traders as a sign that bullish momentum can persist beyond a few sessions. Conversely, failure to clear that barrier could reinforce a rangebound pattern, leaving BTC prone to whipsaws tied to news flow and broader market sentiment.

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Analysts highlighted that the market’s appetite for directional bets remains constrained. The research notes that a lack of durable bid depth—evidenced by flat open interest in Bitcoin futures and tepid spot demand since the February dip below $60,000—suggests most price moves are driven by news and correlated markets rather than a broad base of new buyers. This posture makes BTC more vulnerable to abrupt reversals if headlines turn sour or if macro conditions deteriorate again.

What traders are watching next

Beyond the immediate friction at the $68,879 threshold, traders are watching for clearer signals from both the spot and futures markets. A sustained move past that line could invite a liquidity-driven push higher if liquidations and stop-orders align to reinforce the breakout. In practice, that would require a broad shift in investor posture—from cautious footing to active accumulation among spot buyers and ETF-like vehicles, if applicable in the current market environment.

On the technical front, the next real milestones are shaped by volatility regimes and risk tolerance. If Bitcoin can establish a daily close above the 50-day moving average, buyers may gain confidence to press toward higher targets. If not, the picture could tilt back toward consolidation, with traders awaiting a fresh catalyst to re-ignite momentum. This dynamic underscores a larger question facing the crypto market: will the current price action translate into durable demand, or will it remain a series of episodic rallies tethered to headlines?

On-chain signals add nuance to the story. Cointelegraph highlighted that stablecoin inflows to exchanges are near a two-year low, which generally signals a cautious stance among traders. Simultaneously, open interest in Bitcoin futures and spot demand have remained flat since the Feb. 6 decline, reinforcing the impression that the market is not currently laying down strong directional bets. These indicators suggest that even as price moves translate into headlines-based enthusiasm, the fundamental bid for Bitcoin remains restrained—a critical factor for readers weighing whether this rally has legs or is likely to falter.

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For investors and builders, the unfolding scenario offers a key lesson: headlines can temporarily lift risk assets, but the path to sustained upside in BTC depends on a credible, durable bid from market participants across the full spectrum of the ecosystem. In this context, the potential for a broader move will hinge not just on geopolitical optics but on the crypto market’s ability to attract real spot demand and to overcome the structural restraint that has characterized the current cycle.

Looking ahead: uncertainty and the path forward

While the Wall Street Journal’s report on possible de-escalation added a narrative tailwind, the absence of official confirmation means markets remain in a wait-and-see posture. For Bitcoin, the critical test remains whether buyers can sustain a move beyond the near-term technical ceiling and ignite a longer-lasting uptrend. Until then, the price action could continue to reflect a tug-of-war between headline-driven optimism and the more cautious posture seen in on-chain metrics and spot-market activity.

Readers should watch for any tangible policy developments that could shape risk appetite and for evidence of improving spot demand, not just speculative leverage. In the near term, the absence of a clear bid from the spot market and muted open interest imply that BTC could continue to drift within a familiar range until a decisive catalyst emerges.

As markets digest these signals, the next few sessions may reveal whether the current optimism has a durable basis or if crypto markets will revert to a more cautious stance as the macro and geopolitical backdrop evolves. The balance between headlines, technical levels, and real demand will determine whether BTC can translate short-term enthusiasm into a sustained move higher or retreat to the lower end of its recent trading band.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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BNB slips below $590 as Trump threatens to strike Iranian power plants

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A bearish BNB chart
A bearish BNB chart

Key takeaways

  • Binance’s BNB is down 4.5% in the last 24 hours and now trades below $590.
  • The bearish performance comes as President Trump threatens to attack Iran’s power plants. 

BNB (formerly Binance Coin) is currently trading below $585 as of Thursday, continuing its three-week decline. 

The correction has deepened following US President Donald Trump’s statement that the ongoing US-Iran conflict could last until late April, which has dampened investor sentiment towards riskier assets. 

From a technical standpoint, momentum indicators are signaling a potential for further downside in BNB.

Trump’s remarks weigh on market sentiment

Bitcoin, Ether, BNB, and XRP are in the red after President Trump warned on Wednesday that the US-Iran war could extend until late April. He also threatened to target Iranian power plants and stated that Iran would be sent back to the “Stone Age” if an agreement is not reached.

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These statements have tempered hopes for de-escalation, further reducing investor appetite for riskier assets. As a result, the US Dollar (USD) and oil prices have strengthened, while US equities and other high-risk assets have come under pressure. 

Retail interest in BNB has also declined in recent days. According to CoinGlass, BNB’s long-to-short ratio reads 0.80 on Thursday, its lowest point in a month. 

A ratio below one indicates bearish market sentiment, with traders betting on a further decline in BNB’s price.

BNB could dip to February’s low

The BNB/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and inefficient as BNB has underperformed in recent days. 

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Currently, BNB is trading well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, which all trend higher above the current price and frame a broader bearish backdrop. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart reads 42, below the neutral 50, indicating a bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also drifting deeper below the zero, signaling persistent selling pressure rather than a completed downside exhaustion.

BNB/USD 4H Chart

If the bearish trend persists, BNB will retest the initial support at $570.16 (February’s low). A break below this level would open the way toward lower daily lows and deepen the corrective phase toward the key psychological level at $500.

However, if the bulls regain control of the market, they would encounter immediate resistance at $697, in line with the descending EMAs.

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A sustained recovery above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and expose the next resistance at $790.79.

 

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Polymarket expands fees, boosting revenue under regulatory pressure

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Crypto Breaking News

Polymarket, the prediction-market platform, rolled out a broadened fee model on March 30, expanding taker fees beyond crypto and sports to a wider array of categories. In the days that followed, metrics tracked by DefiLlama show a sharp rise in on-platform activity monetized through fees, with daily trading fees crossing the $1 million mark on Wednesday and Thursday. Revenue after incentives climbed to as high as $995,000 on Wednesday before easing to roughly $899,000 on Thursday. The shift underscores how Polymarket is recalibrating its economics to lock in ongoing investor interest amid intensifying regulatory scrutiny.

The broadening of the fee schedule coincides with a deliberate push to monetize activity more aggressively. Polymarket expanded taker fees to categories such as finance, politics, economics, culture, weather and tech, while keeping geopolitical and world events free of fees. The core idea appears to be extracting more value from routine trading activity, a move that aims to sustain liquidity and growth even as jurisdictions around the world tighten oversight of prediction markets. Data from DefiLlama illustrates the immediate impact: daily fees surged from about $363,000 on Monday to more than $1 million on midweek days, with revenue after incentives peaking at near $1 million on Wednesday before settling lower on Thursday.

Key takeaways

  • DefiLlama data show Polymarket’s daily fees jumped from roughly $363,000 to over $1 million in the days after the March 30 fee overhaul, signaling a dramatic monetization shift.
  • Revenue after incentives rose to as high as about $995,000 on one day, then moderated to around $899,000 on the following day, reflecting how the new fees translate into platform economics.
  • The fee expansion added taker charges across more categories—finance, politics, economics, culture, weather and tech—while keeping geopolitical and world-events fees free.
  • Regulatory pressure remains a core driver of strategy, with ongoing limits on access in multiple jurisdictions and actions by U.S. states, even as investor interest persists.

Regulatory pressure tightens across borders

The surge in Polymarket’s fees arrives amid a broader regulatory crackdown on prediction markets across Europe, North America and beyond. In Europe, the platform has faced mounting restrictions as regulators argue that it operates as an unlicensed gambling venue in several jurisdictions. Hungary and Portugal, for example, moved to block or limit access in January over licensing concerns and, in Portugal’s case, questions around political betting. These frictions complicate user acquisition and liquidity, even as demand for event-based markets remains visible among certain trader cohorts.

Other notable developments illustrate the global regulatory tension. In Argentina, a court order issued on March 17 ordered a nationwide ban on Polymarket, contending that the platform allowed users to place bets without sufficient identity and age verification, raising concerns about accessibility for underage users. Polymarket’s own geoblock information indicates the platform is currently blocked in 33 countries, a figure that underscores the cross-border compliance challenges faced by the operator. Kalshi, a competing prediction market, reports even broader restrictions, stating it is banned in 52 jurisdictions.

Across the United States, the regulatory environment remains unsettled. At least 11 states have taken legal action against prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, with cease-and-desist orders or new legislative proposals under consideration in several states. Despite these crackdowns, both platforms have signaled an ability to pursue expansion, with reports of potential large-scale fundraising rounds that could value each platform around $20 billion. The tension between growth ambitions and regulatory risk continues to shape the trajectory of the sector.

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In late March, Polymarket and Kalshi introduced new trading restrictions aimed at curbing insider trading after criticism about well-timed bets and concerns about market integrity. The reform push signals a desire to bolster trust in event markets while navigating a landscape where regulators are increasingly vigilant about preemptive positions and information asymmetries.

Investor interest persists amid a risk-laden backdrop

The interplay between monetization, regulatory risk and investor sentiment remains delicate. The private investment narrative around Polymarket received a high-profile boost when Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, reportedly invested about $600 million in Polymarket last week. The move underscores a sustained interest from large financial players in the potential of structured prediction markets, even as the sector contends with licensing, anti-gambling, and consumer-protection concerns in key markets.

On the funding side, both Polymarket and Kalshi are rumored to be exploring new rounds that could push their valuations into the tens of billions of dollars, highlighting a long-term belief among some investors that event-based markets can scale beyond their current regulatory envelopes. The ongoing push for expansion, paired with legal scrutiny, creates a dynamic where monetization levers, compliance, and user protection must co-evolve to maintain liquidity and participation.

As a matter of policy and practicality, March 24 saw explicit steps to address market integrity concerns through tightened trading rules, setting a precedent for how similar platforms might balance rapid growth with stronger oversight. The broader market will continue to watch how regulators respond to these shifts, whether geoblocking efforts intensify, and how exchanges balance revenue opportunities with responsible operator practices that protect users and maintain fair markets.

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Readers should stay attentive to regulatory updates, particularly in Europe and the United States, where the legal status of prediction markets remains unsettled in several jurisdictions. The evolution of Polymarket’s fee model, alongside liquidity dynamics and enforcement actions, will likely shape how users engage with event-based markets in the coming months and whether investor appetite for large-scale funding rounds sustains the sector’s momentum.

What to watch next: regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions, the sustainability of elevated fee-driven revenue, and whether the ongoing confluence of large-cap investment and stricter market rules will redefine how forecast markets operate at scale.

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Polymarket Revenue Jumps as New Fees Take Effect

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Polymarket Revenue Jumps as New Fees Take Effect

Prediction market Polymarket’s recent fee expansion has started to affect its numbers, with daily fees and revenue climbing sharply in the days following a March 30 price overhaul. 

According to DefiLlama data, daily fees rose from about $363,000 on Monday to over $1 million on both Wednesday and Thursday, while revenue (the portion retained after incentives) reached as high as $995,000 on Wednesday before easing to about $899,000 on Thursday. 

Polymarket fees and revenue data since March. Source: DefiLlama

The jump follows the rollout of a broader fee model on Monday, when the platform expanded taker fees beyond crypto and sports to categories including finance, politics, economics, culture, weather and tech, while keeping geopolitical and world events fee-free. 

The spike shows how aggressively Polymarket is monetizing trading activity to maintain continued investor interest amid regulatory scrutiny in the US, Europe and other countries worldwide. Last week, Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested $600 million in Polymarket.

Prediction markets face growing regulatory scrutiny

The fee and revenue spike comes as prediction markets, including Polymarket, face growing regulatory scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions.

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In Europe, Polymarket has faced mounting restrictions, with Hungary and Portugal moving to block or limit access in January over concerns that the platform operates as unlicensed gambling. Regulators in both countries cited licensing issues and, in Portugal’s case, concerns around political betting.

Related: Peter Brandt, Polymarket traders don’t see new Bitcoin highs this year

On March 17, a court in Argentina ordered a nationwide ban on Polymarket, arguing that the platform allowed users to place bets without sufficient identity and age verification. The court said this meant that even children and adolescents could access the platform and place bets without any control. 

According to Polymarket’s website, the platform is currently blocked in 33 countries. Kalshi, on the other hand, reports that it’s banned in 52 jurisdictions. 

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List of jurisdictions where Kalshi is restricted. Source: Kalshi

In the United States, at least 11 states have taken legal action against prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, with several issuing cease-and-desist orders or considering new legislation.

Despite regulatory crackdowns, Polymarket and Kalshi are looking to expand, with both reportedly exploring new funding rounds that could value each platform at around $20 billion.

On March 24, Polymarket and Kalshi introduced new trading restrictions to curb insider trading following criticism over well-timed bets and growing concerns around market integrity.

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