Crypto World
Roundhill’s Election-Event Contract ETFs Could Be Groundbreaking
Roundhill Investments, a US-based ETF issuer, has moved to bring six exchange-traded funds tied to event contracts that bet on the outcome of the 2028 US presidential election. The filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission describes ETFs that would use a specialized derivative known as event contracts to speculate on political results. If approved, the products could broaden access to prediction-market-style exposure within a traditional exchange-traded wrapper, a development that ETF observers characterized as potentially groundbreaking. The six funds cover presidential, Senate, and House outcomes across both major parties: Roundhill Democratic President ETF, Roundhill Republican President ETF, Roundhill Democratic Senate ETF, Roundhill Republican Senate ETF, Roundhill Democratic House ETF, and Roundhill Republican House ETF. The filing also flags that regulators continue to weigh how such instruments should be classified and regulated.
The prospect of an ETF-based route into event contracts has drawn commentary from industry observers. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted in a post that, if the SEC were to approve the lineup, the impact could be “potentially groundbreaking.” He argued that the ETF structure could unlock a broader set of prediction-market applications that are more accessible to a wide range of investors than raw prediction markets on bespoke platforms. The filing itself describes the objective of the fund tied to the winning election outcome as capital-focused, while cautioning that the other five funds face materially higher risk where investors could see substantial losses.
The Roundhill filing explicitly describes the structure as investing in, or gaining exposure to, a class of instruments known as event contracts. The approach would apply to the presidential outcomes as well as to control of the Senate and the House, spanning both major parties. In the filing, Roundhill underscores that while the fund aiming to capture the ultimate election result seeks capital appreciation, the remaining five ETFs could lose “almost all” of their value, depending on how market events unfold and how the contracts converge on settlement. The document warns that a rapid convergence between opposing event outcomes could trigger sharp NAV movements, a phenomenon described as highly atypical for conventional ETFs.
The regulatory dimension is front and center. The filing notes that US rules governing event contracts are evolving, and any future classification changes or “restrictions” could affect the funds. The document also flags the possibility that policymakers may limit, suspend, modify, or even prohibit certain political outcome contracts, should concerns around investor protection or market integrity intensify. Investors who are uncomfortable with regulatory uncertainty are urged to avoid purchasing shares. The discussion highlights the broader tension between liquidity, innovation, and consumer safeguards in the growing ecosystem of prediction-market-style financial products.
The debate around prediction markets has gained momentum alongside regulatory signals from US authorities. In early February, reports indicated the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had moved to withdraw a Biden-administration proposal seeking to ban sports and political prediction markets, a sign that a more permissive stance could be emerging for certain forms of event-driven contracts. The regulatory arc remains a key variable shaping how Roundhill’s six ETFs would perform in practice, particularly if classification or restriction decisions shift in coming months. The evolving framework raises questions about how these funds would be priced, settled, and taxed, and whether they would attract meaningful liquidity given the novel nature of the underlying contracts.
Industry observers note that the intersection of traditional equity markets and prediction markets could mark a broader shift in how investors access political risk and price uncertainty. The Roundhill filing arrives as the so-called prediction-market conversation grows more nuanced, with debates about whether such markets should focus on hedging price-exposure risk or remain oriented toward speculative bets on short-term political outcomes. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has weighed in on the topic, arguing that prediction markets, if left to their current trajectory, risk over-convergence on short-horizon bets and price swings that are detached from longer-term value creation. In a widely cited post, he called for shifting toward marketplaces that hedge price exposure for consumers, a stance that aligns with ongoing discussions about consumer protection in digital markets. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has become a focal point in these debates as developers and investors consider how to align incentives with real-world utility. For context, Buterin’s remarks have been echoed in discussions around hedging mechanisms and risk controls in prediction-market ecosystems.
The broader conversation around event contracts and their perceived suitability for mainstream investors continues to evolve. The Roundhill proposal sits at a moment when traditional asset managers are experimenting with derivative-like structures to capture political risk, while regulators voice caution about liquidity, reliability, and the integrity of price discovery. The SEC’s review process for these six ETFs will hinge on whether event contracts can offer transparent settlement, robust risk disclosures, and a structure that can scale liquidity to support a diversified investor base. The filing’s emphasis on the potential for significant NAV volatility in the five riskier funds underscores the need for clear risk management frameworks and investor education as these products progress through the regulatory pipeline. For readers, the main takeaway is that the integration of event contracts into an ETF wrapper could represent a notable pivot in how political risk is monetized, even as the regulatory environment remains a decisive constraint on immediate execution.
As the market watches for ongoing developments, the Roundhill filing serves as a litmus test for whether prediction-market-style derivatives can be reconciled with the governance and investor protections that underpin traditional ETFs. While the six-fund lineup targets different political outcomes, the core insight for investors is the relative risk asymmetry: one fund may pursue capital appreciation from the ultimate election result, while the other five grapple with convergence events that can push net asset value sharply in either direction. The path to approval remains uncharted, and the regulatory equation—balancing innovation with safeguards—will likely dictate the pace and shape of any eventual launch. In the meantime, the discourse surrounding prediction markets enters a more formal, regulated phase, with the potential to broaden access to politically linked derivatives for a broader cohort of investors while inviting heightened scrutiny from policymakers and market participants alike.
Why it matters
The Roundhill filing matters because it tests whether prediction-market concepts can be packaged into the familiar ETF format. If approved, it could provide a regulated, transparent avenue for investors to engage with political risk using a market-based mechanism that has historically lived outside mainstream asset management. By packaging six distinct event contracts into a single lineup, the fund family aims to offer diversified exposure to different branches of government, potentially enabling portfolios to hedge or express views on the political calendar without stepping outside established exchange-traded infrastructure.
For the broader crypto and digital-asset discourse, the development signals a continuing convergence between traditional finance instruments and more experimental market ideas. The emergence of ETF-based event contracts could feed into ongoing debates about how to design markets that are resilient, accessible, and protective of ordinary investors while still enabling innovative risk transfer. The attention from figures like Balchunas and the ongoing commentary from prominent crypto thinkers, including Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin, underscores the cross-pollination between traditional ETFs and decentralized finance conversations about hedging, price discovery, and consumer protection. As policymakers refine regulatory guidance, proponents argue that a regulated ETF wrapper could deliver improved transparency, settlement mechanics, and liquidity compared with niche, permissioned prediction platforms.
For participants in the prediction-market space, Roundhill’s approach may set a precedent for how event-driven instruments could be evaluated by mainstream markets. Stakeholders will be watching whether the funds can attract sufficient liquidity, how settlement will be determined, and how sensitive the NAV will be to shifting political narratives and polling trajectories. The tension between potential liquidity gains and risk of rapid NAV swings will be central to any future discussions about the viability of these vehicles in a volatile political landscape.
What to watch next
- SEC decisions on the Roundhill ETF filings and the final product terms, including eligibility criteria and settlement procedures.
- Any regulatory updates or guidance on event contracts, including potential reclassifications or restrictions that could affect the funds.
- Regulatory commentary from the CFTC or other bodies regarding prediction markets and related derivatives.
- Market liquidity and investor demand for election-related ETFs as the 2028 cycle progresses.
Sources & verification
- Roundhill’s filing with the SEC detailing six election-event ETFs, including the six fund names and their objectives: SEC filing.
- Eric Balchunas’s remarks about potential impact if approved: X post.
- Regulatory discussions around prediction markets and CFTC coverage, including referenced coverage on the Biden-era proposal status: CFTC stance.
- Vitalik Buterin’s comments on prediction markets and hedging, including his X post: X post, and a related piece on hedging: Buterin hedging discussion.
Bitcoin may not have hit true capitulation yet. On chain analytics firm CryptoQuant is warning that the real bear market floor could sit closer to $55,000. That is lower than many bulls want to admit.
If their data is right, the market still has some pain to process before a proper structural base forms. Weak hands may not be fully flushed. And until that final reset happens, calling this the ultimate bottom might be a bit premature.
Key Takeaways
- CryptoQuant data suggests the “ultimate” bear market bottom is near $55,000 based on realized price models.
- Bitcoin recently saw $5.4 billion in realized losses on Feb. 5, the highest since March 2023.
- Key valuation metrics like MVRV and NUPL have not yet reached historical capitulation zones.
Is The Selling Finally Over?
CryptoQuant says we are still in a normal bear phase, not the extreme panic zone that usually marks once in a cycle buying opportunities. In their view, bottoms are not single candles. They are long, messy processes that take time to build.
Meanwhile, price action keeps slipping. ETF outflows are stacking up and Bitcoin losing $66,000 has traders nervous. But according to the data, we still have not seen the kind of pain that typically resets the market.
Bitcoin price is trading more than 25% above its realized price, a level that has historically acted as strong support.
In past cycles like 2018 and the FTX collapse, Bitcoin bottomed 24% to 30% below realized price. If that pattern plays out again, the $55,000 area becomes the zone to watch.
Realized Losses And Valuation Metrics
The latest CryptoQuant data shows real damage under the surface.
On February 5, Bitcoin holders locked in $5.4 billion in daily losses as price slid 14% to $62,000. That was the biggest single day loss since March 2023.
But even with those numbers, key valuation metrics are not flashing full bottom yet.
The MVRV ratio has not dropped into the extreme undervalued zone that usually shows up at cycle lows. The NUPL metric also has not hit the deep unrealized loss levels that typically mark capitulation.
Long term holders tell a similar story. Right now, many are selling around breakeven. In past bear market bottoms, they were sitting on losses of 30% to 40%.
If history is any guide, the final phase of capitulation may require a deeper reset before a durable floor forms. Until then, patience may prove more valuable than premature bottom calls.
If Bitcoin Needs Another Reset, Bitcoin Hyper Does Not
When analysts start talking about “true capitulation,” it means one thing. Bitcoin could stay slow and heavy for longer than bulls expect.
That is not the environment for explosive base-layer moves.
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If Bitcoin needs more time to bottom, Bitcoin Hyper is positioned to move during the wait.
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The post Analysis Puts Bitcoin Price ‘Ultimate’ Bear Market Bottom Near $55,000 appeared first on Cryptonews.
Elon Musk’s social media platform X is preparing to roll out a feature that could transform the app from a discussion forum into a trading venue.
Key Takeaways:
- X plans to launch Smart Cashtags allowing users to trade stocks and cryptocurrencies directly in posts.
- The feature advances Musk’s vision of turning X into an all-in-one financial and social platform.
- It will roll out alongside X Money, a peer-to-peer payments system currently in beta testing.
Nikita Bier, X’s head of product, said the company plans to introduce “Smart Cashtags,” a tool that will allow users to buy and sell stocks and cryptocurrencies directly from their timelines.
The feature is expected to arrive within weeks, according to a post published Saturday.
X To Roll Out Smart Cashtags Enabling Stock And Crypto Trades From Posts
“We are launching a number of features in a couple of weeks, including Smart Cashtags that will enable you to trade stocks and crypto directly from the timeline,” Bier wrote.
Bier had previously hinted at the feature in January, sharing an image showing trading functionality embedded in posts, but the company had not confirmed the details at the time.
X previously experimented with financial features. In 2022, it added a basic Cashtag system that displayed price charts and market data for major assets such as Bitcoin and Ether.
Users could view market movements inside posts, though the feature only tracked prices and did not enable transactions. The earlier system was later discontinued.
The planned trading capability would mark a major shift for the platform, which already hosts a large share of online crypto conversation. Allowing direct transactions would move X beyond information sharing and into financial services.
The development aligns with Musk’s long-standing plan to turn X into an “everything app,” comparable to China’s WeChat, where messaging, payments and services operate in one place.
The trading feature comes alongside X Money, a peer-to-peer payments system. Speaking during a presentation at his artificial intelligence company xAI, Musk said the payment tool is currently in limited beta testing and could expand globally after the trial period.
“This is intended to be the place where all money is — the central source of monetary transactions,” Musk said.
According to Musk, the platform reaches roughly 600 million monthly users.
X Cracks Down on Crypto-Linked Engagement Apps
As reported, X has recently come under scrutiny after restricting API access for so-called InfoFi and engagement-reward projects, many of which were tied to crypto incentives.
The company said it would no longer allow apps that reward users for posting or interacting on X, citing concerns over AI-generated spam and manipulation.
Beyond crypto, X’s broader AI strategy has drawn regulatory attention, particularly in Europe, where authorities have raised concerns about Grok’s image-generation features.
The platform has since limited certain capabilities and introduced safeguards after investigations were launched.
X’s decision to clamp down on so-called InfoFi applications sent fresh shockwaves through the crypto market, dragging several tokens sharply lower and forcing a rethink across a niche that had grown tightly intertwined with the social media platform.
The immediate market reaction was led by KAITO, the token linked to the Kaito platform, which slid roughly 20% in a single day as investors digested what many saw as a structural threat rather than a short-term policy tweak.
The post Elon Musk’s X to Launch Smart Cashtags Enabling In-App Stock and Crypto Trading appeared first on Cryptonews.
TLDR:
- Institutional buyers accumulate positions quietly before breakouts occur, absorbing supply inside bases
- Volume reduction before breakouts signals stored energy rather than weakness in underlying price trends
- Momentum funds and retail traders enter after performance becomes visible, creating delayed volume spikes
- Breakout timing context matters more than immediate volume confirmation for predicting trend sustainability
Low volume breakouts often face skepticism from traders who follow conventional technical analysis rules. The standard teaching suggests strong volume must accompany price breakouts for validation.
However, market history reveals a different pattern where volume frequently arrives after the breakout occurs. Technical analyst Aksel Kibar recently examined this phenomenon, noting that markets often move quietly before attracting broader participation.
This observation challenges widely accepted assumptions about volume requirements during breakout formations.
Institutional Accumulation Precedes Public Recognition
Market structure explains why breakouts occur without immediate volume expansion. Institutional investors typically build positions within consolidation ranges before prices break higher.
These buyers accumulate shares gradually when public interest remains low. Supply gets absorbed during this quiet phase, creating conditions for easier price movement.
Technical research supports the concept of volume reduction before breakouts. This pattern reflects stored energy rather than weakness in the underlying trend.
Price can advance with minimal participation because resistance has already been removed. The breakout itself represents recognition of a shift rather than the beginning of participation.
Early positioning by informed buyers means fewer shares remain available when prices break out. The lack of sellers allows price to move higher without requiring heavy volume.
This dynamic contradicts the traditional view that volume must confirm every breakout immediately. Markets can transition from accumulation to markup phase with relatively light trading activity.
The concept of “volume dry-up” before breakouts appears frequently in technical literature. Reduced trading activity can signal preparation for a move rather than disinterest.
When supply has been absorbed and sellers have exited, prices move freely on modest volume. This phase often precedes substantial trends that develop over subsequent weeks or months.
Market Stages Reveal Delayed Volume Patterns
Technical analyst Aksel Kibar noted on social media that breakout performance should consider context beyond the initial moment.
His analysis identifies three distinct stages in market behavior following consolidation patterns. The initial breakout stage often shows limited participation from retail traders and momentum investors.
Performance becomes visible as the trend develops and price gains become measurable. Momentum-focused funds enter positions after trends establish themselves through consistent price action.
Retail participation follows as media coverage expands and investment narratives gain traction. This sequence explains why volume peaks occur after breakouts rather than during them.
Studies examining breakout patterns reveal that timing matters more than immediate volume confirmation. Some quiet breakouts evolve into sustained trends while high-volume breakouts occasionally mark exhaustion points. The relationship between volume and price depends on market phase and participant behavior.
Recognition that volume confirms participation rather than initiating moves changes how traders evaluate breakouts. Markets demonstrate strength through sustained price advancement regardless of initial volume levels.
Historical patterns show that whisper-quiet beginnings can precede powerful trends. The sequence of accumulation, breakout, and expansion follows a logical progression that volume data reflects over time.
Crypto World
Why Multiple Resistance Tests Actually Increase Breakout Probability: Technical Analyst Reveals Market Truth
TLDR:
- Each resistance test removes sell liquidity, gradually weakening the barrier rather than strengthening it.
- Short positions accumulate above tested resistance, creating stop-loss clusters that fuel explosive breakouts.
- Horizontal resistance levels with three or more touches demonstrate institutional recognition and setup quality.
- Repeated price returns to resistance signal market acceptance and persistent demand, not rejection behavior.
Breakout probability increases with multiple tests at resistance levels, contrary to traditional technical analysis teachings.
Technical analyst Aksel Kibar challenges conventional market wisdom in a detailed explanation of modern market dynamics. The analysis focuses on liquidity pools, order flow, and auction theory.
Classical teachings suggest resistance strengthens with repeated failures. However, market behavior demonstrates the opposite trend through systematic liquidity depletion. Each test removes available sell orders and transfers inventory from sellers to buyers.
Liquidity Depletion Weakens Resistance Over Time
Resistance levels function as liquidity pools rather than solid barriers. Modern markets reveal these zones contain clusters of limit orders and resting sell liquidity.
Each price movement into resistance consumes available sell orders through transactions. This process gradually removes supply from the level.
The technical analyst compares resistance to ice being chipped away with each touch. Every test fills sell orders and reduces available supply at that price point.
Eventually, insufficient sellers remain to maintain the resistance level. This creates conditions favorable for eventual breakouts.
Buyers consistently absorb demand at these levels through repeated transactions. The inventory transfers from sellers to buyers during each test. This systematic reduction in available supply makes future breakouts structurally easier to achieve.
Short Positions Create Breakout Fuel Above Resistance
Market participants tend to initiate new short positions after repeated failures at resistance. Confidence in the level grows with each rejection, leading to tighter stop-loss clustering above. This accumulation of stops creates latent energy that fuels eventual breakouts.
When resistance finally breaks, short sellers must cover their positions simultaneously. Breakout traders and momentum participants enter the market at the same time. This combination creates a liquidity vacuum that accelerates price movement upward.
Aksel Kibar notes on his platform that strong breakouts frequently occur after multiple failed attempts. The concentration of stop-loss orders above well-tested levels amplifies the breakout move. This pattern explains why persistent testing often leads to decisive directional moves.
Horizontal Boundaries Signal Institutional Recognition
Horizontal levels carry particular significance in technical analysis, according to the analyst. These boundaries indicate institutional recognition and shared market memory across time periods. Multiple touches increase participant awareness and order clustering around these levels.
The analyst emphasizes mature chart patterns with a minimum of three touch points to pattern boundaries. This selection criterion improves signal quality and setup probability in trading decisions. Horizontal patterns from global exchanges demonstrate this principle consistently.
Markets operate as auction systems where repeated price returns signal ongoing negotiation. Persistence at specific levels indicates acceptance behavior rather than rejection.
Strong markets build bases through consolidation near resistance before continuation moves. This base-building process incorporates multiple tests as part of the natural market structure.
Two US senators are pressing the Treasury Department to investigate a reported foreign investment in a crypto venture tied to the Trump family, raising concerns about national security, foreign influence and access to sensitive financial data.
In a Friday letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and New Jersey Senator Andy Kim asked the government to determine whether the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) should investigate a deal in which a UAE–backed investment vehicle agreed to purchase a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial (WLFI) for roughly $500 million.
The lawmakers wrote that the transaction reportedly occurred days before Donald Trump’s inauguration and would make the foreign fund the firm’s largest shareholder and its only publicly known outside investor. They asked Bessent, who chairs CFIUS, to confirm whether the committee was notified and, if necessary, conduct a “comprehensive, thorough, and unbiased investigation.”
The investment was reportedly backed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s national security adviser. The agreement allegedly directed about $187 million to entities linked to the Trump family and granted two board seats to executives connected to G42, a technology company previously scrutinized by US intelligence agencies over concerns about ties to China, per the letter.
Related: Trump Media files for two new crypto ETFs tied to Bitcoin, Ether, Cronos
UAE stake could expose Americans’ financial and personal data
Warren and Kim argued that the structure of the deal could allow a foreign government to gain influence over a US company handling financial and personal information. They noted that the firm’s privacy disclosures indicate it collects data including wallet addresses, IP addresses, device identifiers and approximate location data, along with certain identity records through service providers.
CFIUS is tasked with reviewing foreign investments that could provide access to sensitive technologies or personal data belonging to US citizens. The lawmakers requested answers by March 5.
Last year, Senators Warren and Jack Reed also called on US authorities to investigate alleged links between World Liberty Financial’s token sales and sanctioned foreign actors. In a Nov. letter to the Justice Department and Treasury, they cited claims that WLFI governance tokens were bought by blockchain addresses tied to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, as well as Russian- and Iranian-linked entities.
Related: Trump family’s WLFI plans FX and remittance platform: Report
Trump says sons handle WLFI investment
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump said he was unaware of the reported multimillion-dollar investment tied to an Abu Dhabi royal and entities connected to the World Liberty Financial crypto platform.
Speaking to reporters, Trump stated he had no direct role in the deal and said the matter was being managed by his family. “My sons are handling that — my family is handling it,” Trump added. “I guess they get investments from different people.”
Magazine: Bitget’s Gracy Chen is looking for ‘entrepreneurs, not wantrepreneurs’
HBAR price has bounced back in the past few days as the crypto market rebound continued and after Hedera reached a key partnership with FedEx, a top player in the delivery and logistics industry.
Summary
- HBAR price has rebounded to a crucial resistance level this year.
- Hedera inked a major partnership with FedEx, a top global company.
- Technical analysis suggests that the token may resume the downtrend.
Hedera (HBAR) token jumped to a high of $0.1038, up sharply from this month’s low of $0.0735. It remains much lower than $0.3045, its highest level in 2025.
HBAR price has rebounded primarily because of the ongoing crypto market rally. Bitcoin and most altcoins rebounded after the recent US consumer inflation report raised the possibility that the Fed will deliver more cuts.
The token also jumped after Hedera reached a deal with FedEx, a top global multinational. FedEx became the latest major company to enter the governance council, joining other companies like Tata Communications, LG, Mondelez, Google, Hitachi, and Deutsche Telekom.
FedEx aims to help advance a trusted digital infrastructure that can support the lifecycle of global shipments and make supply chains smarter for everyone involved. In a statement, Vishal Talwar said:
“As supply chains become increasingly digital-native, trusted data must be shared and verified across many parties without increasing risk or centralizing control.”
Still, the HBAR price faces some major risks that may hit its performance. One of them is that demand for the Canary HBAR ETF has dried in the past few months. It has not had any inflow since February 9 of this year. Its inflows stands at about $6 million this year, bringing the cumulative inflow to $90 million.
Also, the ecosystem growth has stalled, with the total value locked in its DeFi ecosystem falling to just $39 million. The stablecoin market cap has dropped to $68 million, a tiny amount in an industry with billions of dollars.
HBAR price technical analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the HBAR price has rebounded in the past few days. It has rallied from a low of $0.07360 to the current $0.1037.
The coin has retested the key resistance at $0.1037, its lowest level in October and December last year. That is a sign that the coin has formed a break-and-retest pattern.
The coin has also found resistance at the 50-day moving average. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the token will resume the downtrend, potentially to the year-to-date low of $0.073.
Crypto World
UNI Token Tests Critical $2.80 Support After 93% Crash: Analyst Eyes 1,500% Rally Potential
TLDR:
- UNI has declined 93% from all-time highs and currently tests multi-year channel support at $2.80 level.
- Historical patterns show UNI delivered 2,400% gains in 2020 and 400% rally in 2023 from similar support zones.
- Analyst targets range from $14 to $45, representing potential 3x to 8x returns if current support holds firm.
- Uniswap V4 development and DeFi narrative momentum provide fundamental catalysts for projected 1,500% rally.
UNI, the native token of decentralized exchange Uniswap, currently trades at $3.63 after dropping 93% from its all-time high.
The token is testing a multi-year descending channel support that has remained intact since 2022. This high-timeframe structure represents a potential cycle-level accumulation zone.
Market analysts are monitoring whether this support holds as the token approaches critical demand levels.
Multi-Year Channel Support Shows Historical Significance
The descending channel support has proven reliable during previous market cycles. UNI delivered a 2,400% rally in 2020 from October lows when similar support structures formed. The token repeated this pattern in 2023 with a 400% increase from support levels.
Technical indicators show the token trading below the $6 support zone. However, the $2.80 demand zone continues to attract buying interest. This level represents a major macro support that would invalidate below this threshold.
Crypto analyst Patel shared his technical outlook on the token’s structure. According to his analysis, the current positioning suggests smart money accumulation at high-timeframe support levels. The extended base formation historically precedes substantial upward movements in cryptocurrency markets.
The token’s correction from all-time highs places it in what traders call a maximum pain zone. This region often marks periods where retail investors capitulate while institutional participants accumulate positions. The 93.68% decline matches the severity of previous bear market bottoms for major DeFi tokens.
Price Targets Align With DeFi Sector Recovery
Patel’s analysis projects three potential targets if the support structure holds: $14, $26, and $45. These levels represent 3x to 8x returns from current prices. The projections assume the multi-year channel support remains valid through 2026.
The potential for a 1,500% rally stems from historical precedent and cycle analysis. Previous instances where UNI tested similar structures resulted in exponential gains. The asymmetric risk-reward profile becomes attractive when the token trades near established support zones.
Uniswap V4 development adds a fundamental catalyst to the technical setup. The protocol upgrade introduces new features that could drive increased trading volume and fee generation.
DeFi narratives are gaining momentum as the broader cryptocurrency market recovers from the bear cycle.
Market participants watch whether the $2.80 level holds during potential retests. A breakdown below this zone would challenge the bullish thesis and require reassessment of accumulation strategies. Conversely, a successful defense of support could trigger the next leg higher.
The longer consolidation period at these levels typically builds energy for eventual breakouts. Time spent building a base correlates with the magnitude of subsequent rallies in cryptocurrency markets. The current structure mirrors formations that preceded major bull runs in previous cycles.
Crypto World
PEPE Memecoin Whales Accumulate Trillions as Technical Breakout Signals Bullish Reversal
TLDR:
- Whales have reportedly purchased trillions of PEPE tokens as the memecoin trades below $0.01 per token.
- Technical analysts confirm breakout from multi-week downtrend with strong volume supporting bullish momentum.
- PEPE burned 7 trillion tokens from circulation, representing a significant deflationary supply reduction event.
- Community sentiment shows 30% mindshare focused on PEPE’s potential to rival Dogecoin and Shiba Inu dominance.
PEPE token has captured renewed market attention following reports of massive whale purchases and a confirmed technical breakout from a prolonged downtrend.
The memecoin currently trades below $0.01 while social sentiment metrics show surging community interest. Recent on-chain activity reveals whales have acquired trillions of tokens as discussions about PEPE’s potential to rival established memecoins gain traction across crypto platforms.
Whale Activity and Rising Community Sentiment Drive Market Interest
Large-scale investors have reportedly purchased substantial quantities of PEPE tokens in recent trading sessions. This accumulation pattern suggests institutional and high-net-worth participants are positioning for potential upside movement.
The buying activity comes as the token maintains its sub-cent valuation, creating what some market observers view as an attractive entry point.
Data from LunarCrush indicates PEPE commands significant mindshare among cryptocurrency communities. According to the analytics platform, 30% of conversations focus on the token’s cultural relevance and market position.
Community members are drawing comparisons between PEPE and established projects like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu. These discussions explore whether the token could emerge as a leading memecoin in the current market cycle.
Another 25% of tracked conversations center on investment opportunities at current price levels. Crypto influencer Jake Gagain and others have publicly advocated for continuous accumulation.
The “free money” narrative has gained momentum among retail traders monitoring the token’s price action. However, memecoin investments carry substantial risk due to their speculative nature and high volatility.
Market participants are also debating PEPE’s long-term viability within the competitive memecoin sector. The token’s community-driven nature and meme culture foundation provide both strengths and challenges.
Meanwhile, social media activity continues to amplify as traders share technical analysis and price predictions across multiple platforms.
Technical Breakout Coincides with Major Token Burn Event
Technical analyst WhaleFactor reported a confirmed breakout from a weeks-long downtrend resistance line. The breach occurred with what traders describe as a “massive impulse candle” showing strong buying pressure.
This price movement suggests a potential shift in market structure after an extended consolidation period.
Volume analysis reveals a solid support base has formed at lower price levels. The volume shelf indicates sufficient liquidity absorption during the recent decline.
Traders now view the breakout zone as a critical area for potential retests. The path of least resistance appears tilted toward higher prices based on current technical conditions.
Fibonacci retracement levels have been mapped by analysts tracking the price action. The first major target sits at the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Technical traders recommend waiting for potential pullbacks rather than chasing immediate price spikes. This approach aims to secure better risk-reward ratios on new positions.
Separately, PEPE underwent a significant token burn removing 7 trillion tokens from circulation. The burn mechanism represents 20% of current community discussions according to LunarCrush data.
Supply reduction events often serve as bullish catalysts in cryptocurrency markets. The updated total supply figures reflect this deflationary action.
Rising concerns about quantum threats to Bitcoin have captured the attention of institutions and veteran investors. In a recent appearance on the Bits and Bips podcast, venture capitalist Nic Carter warned that large holders might grow impatient with developers if action on quantum-resistant cryptography stalls, potentially triggering governance shifts. He argued that a slow pace could prompt major players to replace core contributors with new teams more willing to push forward a solution. The debate centers on risk management, control, and the pace of change at a time when the network remains one of the largest, publicly verifiable assets in the world.
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is reported to hold around 761,801 BTC, valued at roughly $50.15 billion at publication, accounting for about 3.62% of the circulating supply. The sheer scale of institutional exposure highlights why the question of security upgrades and governance is no longer purely academic. Carter’s provocative framing asks what happens if a consent-based, volunteer-driven development model cannot keep up with the demands of major participants. “If you’re BlackRock and you have billions of dollars of client assets in this thing and its problems aren’t being addressed, what choice do you have?” he asked during the discussion.
That framing has sparked a broader debate within the industry about whether Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is approaching a tipping point where governance dynamics could shift under institutional pressure. The discussion comes amid a wider conversation about the timing and feasibility of upgrading the network’s cryptographic foundations to resist quantum attacks, a threat some researchers say could become material within the next decade, while others contend the risk is overstated or manageable with incremental steps.
Key takeaways
- Institutional stakeholders are explicitly weighing governance and development tempo in response to potential quantum threats to Bitcoin’s security model.
- A number of prominent investors and commentators see the risk as real enough to spur calls for faster action or even new development leadership if progress stalls.
- One of the largest holders, BlackRock, adds a practical layer of pressure, given the scale of capital that could influence upgrade decisions and strategy for the Bitcoin network.
- The industry remains divided: some argue the threat is existential and immediate, while others say the concern is theoretical and can be mitigated through measured research and gradual hardening.
- Proposals and discussions around quantum-resistant cryptography are entering mainstream crypto discourse, with researchers pointing to tangible, albeit gradual, paths forward.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Market context: The conversation around quantum risk sits alongside ongoing debates about protocol upgrades, risk management by institutional holders, and the role of governance in a decentralized-but-institutionally-influenced ecosystem. As markets monitor liquidity, macro cues, and regulatory signals, the quantum-resilience question adds a new layer to how investors assess Bitcoin’s security posture and future upgrade trajectories.
Why it matters
The potential for quantum computing to undermine current cryptographic protections touches every layer of Bitcoin—from wallets and transaction verification to the very assumptions underpinning its security model. If the network’s cryptography were shown to be vulnerable, large institutions with significant BTC exposure could demand faster progress toward quantum-resistant schemes, or even push for changes in who controls core development. That possibility — sometimes described as a “corporate takeover” of the upgrade process — would represent a shift in how decentralized networks interact with centralized capital markets and risk managers. Proponents of swifter action argue that delaying a secure upgrade could amplify systemic risk, while skeptics caution against hasty changes that might fracture consensus or introduce new vulnerabilities.
A number of voices in the industry have weighed in on the urgency and feasibility of addressing quantum threats. Austin Campbell, founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting, echoed concerns that if a structural problem exists and large players maintain a long view, they will eventually demand reform or louder participation from the governance and development community. In parallel, other industry figures emphasize a more measured approach, warning against overreaction and highlighting the resilience of Bitcoin’s current security margin. Carter’s assertions that a rapid, market-driven shift could occur if developers don’t move quickly enough contrast with more conservative analyses that quantify the actual exposure and the practical timelines for cryptanalytic breakthroughs.
On the other side of the debate, proponents of the status quo point to long-term research cycles, the complexity of hard-fork upgrades, and the importance of broad consensus across a decentralized ecosystem. They note that a handful of publicized vulnerabilities do not automatically translate into imminent risk and that the path to quantum resilience will likely involve multiple layers of defense, from protocol changes to key management practices and architectural diversification. Notably, researchers at CoinShares and others have sought to quantify risk by examining the number of BTC addresses with vulnerable keys and the distribution of assets among holders, offering a more nuanced picture than headlines alone. This spectrum of views helps explain why the conversation remains contentious rather than resolved.
The market backdrop adds further texture to the debate. Bitcoin’s price action has been volatile in recent weeks, trading near the $70,000 mark at the time of reporting after a period of drawdown. This macro context — combined with an evolving risk appetite among institutional buyers — can influence how quickly stakeholders push for any technical changes. If the quantum risk becomes perceived as a credible, near-term threat, capital flows could shift toward safer hedges or more robust security architectures, potentially affecting liquidity, volatility, and the calculus around new product structures that rely on Bitcoin’s security model.
The tension between urgency and caution also reflects the broader governance challenge that applies to many decentralized networks: when and how to upgrade cryptography in a way that preserves security while maintaining broad participation and network integrity. The debate is not purely academic; it implicates who steers development, how funding is allocated, and what kinds of governance tests are acceptable for a system that prizes decentralization as a foundational principle. As institutions increasingly intersect with Bitcoin’s technical frontier, the next steps—whether they involve formal proposals, research milestones, or new collaboration mechanisms—will be watched closely by miners, custodians, and everyday holders alike.
What to watch next
- Progress updates on quantum-resistant cryptography proposals within Bitcoin development discussions and any related roadmap milestones.
- Public statements or filings from major institutions referenced in discussions, including BlackRock’s involvement or commentary on Bitcoin governance and security upgrades.
- Any new research quantifying quantum risk, particularly metrics around vulnerable keys and potential attack surfaces in exposed wallets.
- Emerging viewpoints from prominent figures in the space who advocate for faster or slower adoption of quantum-resilience measures and their rationale.
Sources & verification
- BlackRock’s BTC holdings and value reference on iShares Bitcoin Trust page.
- CoinShares research outlining the quantum vulnerability landscape for Bitcoin and the count of vulnerable addresses.
- Bitcoin price data and 30-day performance cited by CoinMarketCap.
- Remarks from Nic Carter on the Bits and Bips podcast and related discussion threads on X (Twitter).
Quantum risk, governance and the future of Bitcoin
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) sits at the center of a fraught debate about how quickly the network should respond to the looming threat of quantum computing. In the Bits and Bips discussion, Nic Carter framed a scenario where institutions with billions of dollars at stake could lose patience with a dev community perceived as dragging its feet on a critical upgrade. He warned that the gatekeepers of capital might push for a reconfiguration of development leadership, arguing that “the corporate takeover” could become a practical reality if cryptographic progress remains slow. The assertion is provocative, but it highlights a real tension: the need to balance rapid risk mitigation with the safeguards that come from broad, consensus-driven protocol evolution.
BlackRock’s reported stake in BTC amplifies the significance of this tension. With around 761,801 BTC behind a $50.15 billion position, the firm’s exposure underscores why governance and upgrade decisions in Bitcoin become questions with market-wide consequences. The argument that institutions might actively influence the upgrade path rests not on ideological appeal but on the leverage that comes from asset ownership and the perceived security of client funds. Carter’s question—what choice do institutions have when problems aren’t being addressed—frames this as a practical policy question as much as a technological one.
Yet the Bitcoin ecosystem remains far from a monolithic front. Other voices argue that large holders are primarily passive investors rather than active governance agents, suggesting that the path of protocol evolution will continue to hinge on a combination of developer consensus, open research, and gradual, tested improvements. Austin Campbell and other observers point to a need for vocal stakeholders to participate in technical discussions, ensuring that any shift toward quantum resilience reflects a broad spectrum of interests rather than a single corporate logic. On the other hand, researchers and market observers have presented data suggesting that the immediate threat may be more manageable than headline risk implies, reinforcing the idea that any upgrade will be incremental and guarded by multiple layers of security review.
As the market digests these perspectives, the next few quarters are likely to feature intensified dialogue around cryptographic resilience, governance mechanisms, and the practicalities of deploying quantum-resistant technologies without destabilizing the network. The discussion also reflects a broader trend: institutions increasingly seeking a measurable, verifiable security posture when engaging with crypto assets, and developers striving to preserve decentralization while addressing evolving risk models. The interplay between capital influence and technical progress will continue to shape how Bitcoin navigates this complex risk landscape—an evolution that could redefine how the network balances security, governance, and growth in a dynamic market environment.
A crypto market rally is going on today, February 15, as investors buy the recent dip after the encouraging US consumer inflation report.
Summary
- The crypto market rally restarted today, with Bitcoin and most altcoins rising by double digits.
- This rally ignited after the recent US inflation report, which showed that prices retreated in January.
- The rally is also happening as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone.
Bitcoin (BTC) price jumped to $70,000, while the market capitalization of all coins soared to over $2.4 trillion. Pepe Coin (PEPE) jumped by over 30% in the last 24 hours, while Zcash (ZEC), Dogecoin, and Bonk were up by over 10% in the same period.
Most of these tokens have soared by over 50% from their lowest levels this year. Other top gainers were coins like Shiba Inu, Jupiter, Morpho, and Pippin.
Crypto market rally triggered by US inflation report
The ongoing crypto market rally is happening because of last Friday’s macro report, which showed that the headline consumer inflation continued falling in January. This report showed that the headline Consumer Price Index dropped to 2.4% in January from 3% a few months ago. It is slowly moving towards the 2% target..
Another report showed that the labor market is making strides despite some notable layoffs announced this year. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% as the economy created over 130k jobs during the month.
These numbers mean that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates more time than expected this month. While Fed officials have hinted at one interest rate cut this year, most analysts expect that the bank will deliver more cuts than that.
The crypto market rally is also happening as the futures open interest continues rising. Data compiled by CoinGlass shows that the futures open interest rose by nearly 2% to $100 billion, a sign that investors are adding more leverage to their positions.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index has rebounded
Additionally, the rally is happening because of the ongoing performance of the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which has remained in the extreme fear zone in the past few weeks. It has jumped from the extreme fear zone of 8 to the current 13.
Historically, crypto bull runs normally start whenever the Fear and Greed Index falls to the extreme fear zone. A good example of this is what happened earlier this year when Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rallied.
Still, there is a need for caution as this rebound may be a dead-cat bounce, a situation where financial assets in a freefall rebound briefly and then resumes the downtrend trend.
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