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Roundhill’s Election-Event Contract ETFs Could Be Groundbreaking

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Roundhill Investments, a US-based ETF issuer, has moved to bring six exchange-traded funds tied to event contracts that bet on the outcome of the 2028 US presidential election. The filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission describes ETFs that would use a specialized derivative known as event contracts to speculate on political results. If approved, the products could broaden access to prediction-market-style exposure within a traditional exchange-traded wrapper, a development that ETF observers characterized as potentially groundbreaking. The six funds cover presidential, Senate, and House outcomes across both major parties: Roundhill Democratic President ETF, Roundhill Republican President ETF, Roundhill Democratic Senate ETF, Roundhill Republican Senate ETF, Roundhill Democratic House ETF, and Roundhill Republican House ETF. The filing also flags that regulators continue to weigh how such instruments should be classified and regulated.

The prospect of an ETF-based route into event contracts has drawn commentary from industry observers. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted in a post that, if the SEC were to approve the lineup, the impact could be “potentially groundbreaking.” He argued that the ETF structure could unlock a broader set of prediction-market applications that are more accessible to a wide range of investors than raw prediction markets on bespoke platforms. The filing itself describes the objective of the fund tied to the winning election outcome as capital-focused, while cautioning that the other five funds face materially higher risk where investors could see substantial losses.

The Roundhill filing explicitly describes the structure as investing in, or gaining exposure to, a class of instruments known as event contracts. The approach would apply to the presidential outcomes as well as to control of the Senate and the House, spanning both major parties. In the filing, Roundhill underscores that while the fund aiming to capture the ultimate election result seeks capital appreciation, the remaining five ETFs could lose “almost all” of their value, depending on how market events unfold and how the contracts converge on settlement. The document warns that a rapid convergence between opposing event outcomes could trigger sharp NAV movements, a phenomenon described as highly atypical for conventional ETFs.

The regulatory dimension is front and center. The filing notes that US rules governing event contracts are evolving, and any future classification changes or “restrictions” could affect the funds. The document also flags the possibility that policymakers may limit, suspend, modify, or even prohibit certain political outcome contracts, should concerns around investor protection or market integrity intensify. Investors who are uncomfortable with regulatory uncertainty are urged to avoid purchasing shares. The discussion highlights the broader tension between liquidity, innovation, and consumer safeguards in the growing ecosystem of prediction-market-style financial products.

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The debate around prediction markets has gained momentum alongside regulatory signals from US authorities. In early February, reports indicated the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had moved to withdraw a Biden-administration proposal seeking to ban sports and political prediction markets, a sign that a more permissive stance could be emerging for certain forms of event-driven contracts. The regulatory arc remains a key variable shaping how Roundhill’s six ETFs would perform in practice, particularly if classification or restriction decisions shift in coming months. The evolving framework raises questions about how these funds would be priced, settled, and taxed, and whether they would attract meaningful liquidity given the novel nature of the underlying contracts.

Industry observers note that the intersection of traditional equity markets and prediction markets could mark a broader shift in how investors access political risk and price uncertainty. The Roundhill filing arrives as the so-called prediction-market conversation grows more nuanced, with debates about whether such markets should focus on hedging price-exposure risk or remain oriented toward speculative bets on short-term political outcomes. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has weighed in on the topic, arguing that prediction markets, if left to their current trajectory, risk over-convergence on short-horizon bets and price swings that are detached from longer-term value creation. In a widely cited post, he called for shifting toward marketplaces that hedge price exposure for consumers, a stance that aligns with ongoing discussions about consumer protection in digital markets. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has become a focal point in these debates as developers and investors consider how to align incentives with real-world utility. For context, Buterin’s remarks have been echoed in discussions around hedging mechanisms and risk controls in prediction-market ecosystems.

The broader conversation around event contracts and their perceived suitability for mainstream investors continues to evolve. The Roundhill proposal sits at a moment when traditional asset managers are experimenting with derivative-like structures to capture political risk, while regulators voice caution about liquidity, reliability, and the integrity of price discovery. The SEC’s review process for these six ETFs will hinge on whether event contracts can offer transparent settlement, robust risk disclosures, and a structure that can scale liquidity to support a diversified investor base. The filing’s emphasis on the potential for significant NAV volatility in the five riskier funds underscores the need for clear risk management frameworks and investor education as these products progress through the regulatory pipeline. For readers, the main takeaway is that the integration of event contracts into an ETF wrapper could represent a notable pivot in how political risk is monetized, even as the regulatory environment remains a decisive constraint on immediate execution.

As the market watches for ongoing developments, the Roundhill filing serves as a litmus test for whether prediction-market-style derivatives can be reconciled with the governance and investor protections that underpin traditional ETFs. While the six-fund lineup targets different political outcomes, the core insight for investors is the relative risk asymmetry: one fund may pursue capital appreciation from the ultimate election result, while the other five grapple with convergence events that can push net asset value sharply in either direction. The path to approval remains uncharted, and the regulatory equation—balancing innovation with safeguards—will likely dictate the pace and shape of any eventual launch. In the meantime, the discourse surrounding prediction markets enters a more formal, regulated phase, with the potential to broaden access to politically linked derivatives for a broader cohort of investors while inviting heightened scrutiny from policymakers and market participants alike.

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Why it matters

The Roundhill filing matters because it tests whether prediction-market concepts can be packaged into the familiar ETF format. If approved, it could provide a regulated, transparent avenue for investors to engage with political risk using a market-based mechanism that has historically lived outside mainstream asset management. By packaging six distinct event contracts into a single lineup, the fund family aims to offer diversified exposure to different branches of government, potentially enabling portfolios to hedge or express views on the political calendar without stepping outside established exchange-traded infrastructure.

For the broader crypto and digital-asset discourse, the development signals a continuing convergence between traditional finance instruments and more experimental market ideas. The emergence of ETF-based event contracts could feed into ongoing debates about how to design markets that are resilient, accessible, and protective of ordinary investors while still enabling innovative risk transfer. The attention from figures like Balchunas and the ongoing commentary from prominent crypto thinkers, including Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin, underscores the cross-pollination between traditional ETFs and decentralized finance conversations about hedging, price discovery, and consumer protection. As policymakers refine regulatory guidance, proponents argue that a regulated ETF wrapper could deliver improved transparency, settlement mechanics, and liquidity compared with niche, permissioned prediction platforms.

For participants in the prediction-market space, Roundhill’s approach may set a precedent for how event-driven instruments could be evaluated by mainstream markets. Stakeholders will be watching whether the funds can attract sufficient liquidity, how settlement will be determined, and how sensitive the NAV will be to shifting political narratives and polling trajectories. The tension between potential liquidity gains and risk of rapid NAV swings will be central to any future discussions about the viability of these vehicles in a volatile political landscape.

What to watch next

  • SEC decisions on the Roundhill ETF filings and the final product terms, including eligibility criteria and settlement procedures.
  • Any regulatory updates or guidance on event contracts, including potential reclassifications or restrictions that could affect the funds.
  • Regulatory commentary from the CFTC or other bodies regarding prediction markets and related derivatives.
  • Market liquidity and investor demand for election-related ETFs as the 2028 cycle progresses.

Sources & verification

  • Roundhill’s filing with the SEC detailing six election-event ETFs, including the six fund names and their objectives: SEC filing.
  • Eric Balchunas’s remarks about potential impact if approved: X post.
  • Regulatory discussions around prediction markets and CFTC coverage, including referenced coverage on the Biden-era proposal status: CFTC stance.
  • Vitalik Buterin’s comments on prediction markets and hedging, including his X post: X post, and a related piece on hedging: Buterin hedging discussion.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Coinbase CLO Predicts FIT21 Breakthrough: What It Means for Markets

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Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal has signaled that FIT21 – the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act – is set to see meaningful legislative movement within 48 hours, a claim that lands at precisely the moment Senate negotiations over crypto market structure are reaching a critical inflection point.

The immediate market implication is not abstract: jurisdictional clarity between the SEC and CFTC is the single largest regulatory risk premium embedded in institutional crypto pricing right now, and a credible path to resolution moves that premium.

For institutional market makers, RIAs, and hedge funds that have been sidelined from altcoin exposure by unresolved ‘unregistered security’ risk, Grewal’s timing signal is the most direct legislative catalyst in months.

Crypto regulation has been inching forward since the GENIUS Act established a stablecoin framework in 2025 – but broader market structure has remained in limbo, and that limbo has a measurable cost in market liquidity and asset pricing spreads.

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Grewal stated plainly that ‘clarity is coming,’ framing the current moment as the industry’s transition out of regulation-by-enforcement and into a structured legislative era. That framing is deliberate – Coinbase has been the most aggressive corporate actor pushing for FIT21 passage, and Grewal’s public confidence signal is a strategic move as much as a factual one. When a company’s CLO goes on record with a 48-hour window, the message to Senate negotiators is as loud as the message to markets.

Key Takeaways:

  • Grewal’s signal: Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal publicly stated FIT21 would see legislative progress within 48 hours, the most direct timing claim from a major industry actor in the current cycle.
  • What FIT21 defines: A decentralization test that determines whether digital assets fall under SEC (securities) or CFTC (commodities) jurisdiction – the central unresolved question in U.S. crypto regulation.
  • The SEC vs CFTC boundary: Post-passage, sufficiently decentralized tokens become CFTC-regulated digital commodities; centralized issuances remain SEC-regulated securities.
  • Market liquidity implication: Institutional market makers, RIAs, and hedge funds currently avoiding altcoins due to enforcement risk get a codified compliance standard – unlocking capital that has been on the sideline.
  • What to watch: Senate Banking Committee markup targeted for April 2026; stablecoin yield compromise must resolve by end of week to keep the floor vote timeline intact.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

What FIT21 Actually Does – and Why the SEC vs CFTC Question Is the Only One That Matters

FIT21’s core mechanism is a decentralization test – a ‘Howey-style’ framework applied specifically to digital assets to determine whether a token is an investment contract under SEC jurisdiction or a digital commodity under CFTC authority.

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The bill passed the House 279-136 in May 2024 with meaningful bipartisan support, stalling in the Senate as stablecoin yield provisions became the primary friction point.

In practice, the bill draws the regulatory boundary this way: assets issued by sufficiently decentralized networks – where no single issuer controls 20% or more of the supply or development roadmap – qualify as digital commodities and fall under CFTC oversight.

Assets that fail that test remain securities under SEC jurisdiction. Section 202 of the bill would also exempt qualifying digital commodity offerings from securities registration, provided issuers meet disclosure requirements covering source code, transaction history, and token economics – effectively enabling U.S.-based token fundraising that currently routes offshore.

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For exchanges like Coinbase, the practical unlock is immediate: a definitive decentralization test means listing decisions on top-20 altcoins no longer carry open-ended SEC enforcement risk.

For institutional participants navigating ongoing regulatory framework debates around crypto oversight, FIT21 passage shifts compliance from a judgment call to a codified standard. That difference in kind – not degree – is what reprices institutional participation.

Explore: Best Crypto Projects With High Growth Potential in 2026

The post Coinbase CLO Predicts FIT21 Breakthrough: What It Means for Markets appeared first on Cryptonews.

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BitGo launches unified crypto financing platform for institutional lending and borrowing

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BitGo launches unified crypto financing platform for institutional lending and borrowing

BitGo has rolled out a new financing platform that allows institutions to borrow and lend against a range of crypto holdings.

Summary

  • BitGo has introduced a financing platform that enables institutions to borrow and lend against liquid, staked, and locked assets from a single custody account.
  •  The platform replaces fragmented lending workflows with a portfolio-based model, allowing clients to access liquidity against a combined pool of assets without moving collateral.

According to the announcement, the platform brings together features like borrowing, lending, and collateral management to eliminate the need for multiple counterparties and fragmented workflows.

Instead of setting aside collateral for each individual loan, the platform uses a portfolio-based structure that allows clients to access liquidity from a combined pool of assets held in custody.

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“We’ve built this offering to pair responsive, high-touch support from our team with an on-platform experience that makes financing easy to manage. That combination of flexibility, service, and control is what institutions have been missing in digital asset markets,” Adam Sporn, the firm’s head of prime brokerage and institutional sales, said in an accompanying statement.

Support for staked and locked tokens adds another layer, allowing borrowers to access liquidity without exiting positions tied to staking or vesting schedules, while still maintaining oversight of assets held in custody. Clients can also lend assets from the same account, either to generate yield or to free up capital for trading and treasury operations.

All activity takes place within BitGo’s custody framework, where collateral is held in segregated wallets, and credit is extended against assets such as Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and stablecoins. Funds can be routed into trading via the firm’s brokerage services or used for broader liquidity needs.

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Demand for credit against crypto holdings has risen over the past year, and this has led exchanges, institutional providers, and DeFi platforms to expand lending offerings tied to digital assets.

Some of the leading players include firms like Anchorage Digital, which, alongside Mezo, has introduced Bitcoin-backed stablecoin loans and short-term yield strategies, allowing institutions to borrow against BTC held in custody while earning returns on locked positions.

Meanwhile, in the exchange segment, platforms like Kraken have rolled out products such as Flexline, offering fixed-term crypto-backed loans, while Coinbase has reintroduced Bitcoin-backed borrowing in the United States, enabling users to access USDC liquidity against BTC collateral.

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Zcash patches critical bug affecting the Sprout shielded pool

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IoTeX confirms $2M hack, rejects $4.3M theft claims

Zcash has patched a major vulnerability that would have allowed bad actors to drain funds from the protocol’s deprecated Sprout shielded pool.

Summary

  • Zcash patched a critical flaw in zcashd nodes that skipped proof verification in the legacy Sprout pool, a bug that could have exposed more than 25,000 ZEC to potential draining.
  • The vulnerability remained present from July 2020 until the release of v6.12.0, with no exploitation detected and all user funds confirmed safe.

A disclosure report from security researcher Alex “Scalar” Sol, published on Tuesday, claims that a critical flaw was discovered in zcashd nodes that resulted in skipping proof verification for transactions involving the legacy Sprout pool.

Zcash’s Sprout pool is the original “shielded pool” that launched with the network in 2016. It was the first implementation of zero-knowledge proofs (zk-SNARKs) in a production cryptocurrency, allowing users to send and receive ZEC privately.

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Although the pool was closed to new deposits in November 2020, it still holds approximately 25,424 ZEC, which are yet to be migrated to newer shielded pool versions.

According to the disclosure, the vulnerability spanned releases from July 2020 onward but was fixed through v6.12.0, which was released on Tuesday. So far, the flaw has not been exploited, and user funds remain safe.

Major mining pools, including Luxor, F2Pool, ViaBTC, and AntPool, have already deployed the fix by March 26, the report added.

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The report added that the Zebra full node implementation was not affected. In the event of an attempted exploit, it would have resulted in a chain fork, acting as an additional safeguard.

Despite the severity of the issue, the Zcash Open Development Team has clarified that the network’s “turnstile” mechanism, which enforces that any coins exiting the Sprout pool must have previously entered it, would have prevented broader supply inflation.

For the Zcash network, this marks the second time a critical, systemic vulnerability has been uncovered within its shielded pools. In 2019, the Zcash team disclosed a “counterfeiting” bug, a flaw in the underlying cryptography that could have allowed an attacker to create an infinite amount of ZEC without detection.

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Crypto selloff deepens with $400 million liquidations and rising short interest

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Crypto selloff deepens with $400 million liquidations and rising short interest

Bitcoin gave back a large portion of its recent gains on Thursday, now trading at $66,700 having lost 2.4% of its value since midnight UTC.

Ether (ETH) performed even worse, tumbling by 4.4% as the broader crypto market struggles to deal with continued risk-off sentiment.

The latest plunge was spurred by U.S. president Donald Trump, who said on Wednesday evening that the war in Iran would continue with extensive strikes on Iran.

“Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong,” he said.

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The comments led to an immediate spike in oil prices, with brent crude rising by around 10% to $108 per barrel as U.S. equities diverged.

Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures lost 1.5% and 1.1% respectively while the U.S. dollar increased by 0.5% to above 100 points.

Derivatives positioning

  • BTC’s price has dropped over 2% since midnight UTC hours alongside a slightly uptick in open interest in major USD- and USDT-denominated futures. Plus, perpetual funding rates have dropped to their most negative since March 12. This combination suggests that traders are bearish and shorting the falling market.
  • In ether’s case, funding rates are most negative since October last year, a sign of strong bias for bearish bets. Meanwhile, bearishness in solana (SOL) is surprisingly more measured despite the overnight hack.
  • Privacy-focused zcash (ZEC) and have seen a notable decline in open interest (OI) in 24 hours, a sign of capital outflows.
  • Nearly $400 million in futures positions have been liquidated due to margin shortfalls. That’s a 17% increase in losses compared to the previous day.
  • Despite renewed risk-off tone, bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices remain flat in recent ranges. It points to orderly selling in the spot market rather than panic.
  • There is little scope for panic because traders are already positioned for market swoon. They have been consistently chasing bitcoin and ether put options (downside hedges) since the start of the year. As of writing, bitcoin and ether puts remained pricier than calls across all tenors on Deribit.
  • Block flows featured demand for ether straddles, a volatility strategy, and put spreads and bitcoin call spreads.

Token talk

  • The worst performing benchmark on Thursday was CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX), which lost 5.9% since midnight UTC, closely followed by the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) that tumbled by 5%.
  • Ethena (ENA) led the downside move as it fell by more than 10% on Thursday, there was also a heavy drawdown among DeFi tokens UNI, LDO, SKY and AAVE – all shedding between 4.2% and 6.5% during Asian and European hours on Thursday.
  • Algorand (ALGO) bucked the bearish market trend, rising by around 0.8% on Thursday as it continues its rich vein of form having rallied by 22% in the past week.
  • CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” index is down from 50/100 to 42/100 since March 30, highlighting relative weakness across the sector.

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CLARITY Act Nearing Senate Markup, Floor Vote

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CLARITY Act Nearing Senate Markup, Floor Vote

Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said the US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is “moving toward” a markup hearing in the US Senate Banking Committee and could eventually move to a floor vote if senators resolve the stablecoin yield dispute and schedule a markup.

Speaking in a Wednesday interview on Fox Business, Grewal said lawmakers are nearing agreement on core elements of the crypto market structure bill, even as debate continues over stablecoin yield. “I think we’re very close to a deal,” he said.

The remarks point to possible movement on one of the last major sticking points in Senate talks over crypto market structure legislation: whether stablecoin issuers or platforms should be allowed to offer yield or similar rewards. The dispute has helped delay a Senate Banking Committee markup, leaving the broader effort to set federal rules for digital asset oversight still unresolved.

US banks have pushed for restrictions, arguing that such incentives could draw deposits away from traditional institutions and disrupt the banking system. Grewal pushed back on that claim, saying there is no evidence to support fears of deposit flight.

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The US House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act on July 17, 2025. In January, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott delayed a planned markup, which has yet to be rescheduled.

Related: Crypto investor sentiment will rise once CLARITY Act is passed: Bessent

Trump blames banks for stalling crypto bill

Last month, US President Donald Trump accused banks of undermining efforts to pass crypto market structure legislation, saying they are blocking progress over disagreements on stablecoin yield payments. “The Banks should not be trying to undercut The Genius Act, or hold The Clarity Act hostage,” he wrote.

It was later reported that Trump met privately with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong just hours before issuing the statement.

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Coinbase shares are down 23% YTD. Source: Yahoo! Finance

In January, Armstrong said Coinbase could not back the market structure bill “as written,” pointing to draft amendments that would eliminate stablecoin rewards and let banks restrict competition.

Related: CLARITY Act 2026 odds ‘extremely low’ if not passed before April: Exec

CLARITY delay could expose crypto to crackdowns

Last week, Coin Center executive director Peter Van Valkenburgh warned that failure to pass the CLARITY Act could leave the crypto industry vulnerable to a future US administration taking a tougher stance. He argued that rejecting developer protections in favor of short-term business interests risks creating a system shaped by political shifts rather than clear law.

“The point of passing CLARITY is not to trust this administration. It is to bind the next one,” he said.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author

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