Crypto World
Completion of This Chart Pattern Could Send BTC to $220K, Says Analyst
Sen told his 270,000 X followers on Thursday that Bitcoin has just completed a multi-year cup-and-handle pattern with a breakout and perfect retest. This structure, which took years to build, has now been confirmed, he added.
“Cup-and-handle breakouts don’t move 20%, the move hundreds of percent,” he said before making a bold price prediction.
“The launch is next … $220K is the minimum target.”
Previous Patterns Ended in Big Breakouts
The cup and handle is a classic bullish continuation pattern in technical analysis. It resembles a teacup on a chart, and a breakout above the handle’s resistance often signals strong upside, with a measured target equal to the cup’s depth added to the breakout point.
I’M SORRY, BUT NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT WHAT BITCOIN JUST DID.
MULTI-YEAR CUP AND HANDLE. COMPLETE.
BREAKOUT. DONE.
PERFECT RETEST. DONE.
STRUCTURE CONFIRMED. DONE.THIS PATTERN TOOK YEARS TO BUILD.
AND NOBODY NOTICED.
CUP AND HANDLE BREAKOUTS DON’T MOVE 20%.
THEY MOVE… pic.twitter.com/hK6LlNZk0X— Vivek Sen (@Vivek4real_) July 30, 2026
Bitcoin has formed this pattern previously, often preceding major rallies. During the 2020 to 2021 cycle, a multi-month cup formed from 2019 highs down to the 2020 low, with a handle in summer 2020. The breakout led to the run toward the peak at $69,000 in November 2021. Through 2022 and 2023, Bitcoin formed a massive, rounded bottom on the weekly chart as institutional accumulation picked up.
By early 2024, the price consolidated in the $60,000 to $69,000 range, forming the handle, before an explosive breakout to over $100,000. However, there may be a little further to go with this handle, as many analysts have targeted October as the bottom and cycle inflection point.
Swissblock reported that Bitcoin’s Risk Index peaked in late June before transitioning into low risk, “allowing selling pressure to ease and price to stabilize.”
However, a divergence is forming with Bitcoin risk remaining subdued while the VIX has returned to the fear zone. The VIX is the CBOE Volatility Index, which is often called the “fear index” as it measures the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility in the S&P 500.
A rising VIX often signals deteriorating market conditions that weigh on BTC, while a low and stable VIX supports risk appetite favorable to crypto.
“If the VIX continues rising and Bitcoin Risk reignites, the canary will begin singing again,” said Swissblock.
The $220,000 price prediction comes just after another one, a lot more bullish, set a massive target of up to $450,000 per BTC. The time horizon for that one is by March 2028.
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin has been choppy over the past 24 hours following the Federal Reserve decision to keep rates unchanged. The asset tapped intraday highs of $64,500 three times before retreating to the high $63,000 zone during the Thursday morning Asian trading session.
Volatility could increase as the US has resumed military strikes on Iran late on Wednesday. “The strikes are a powerful response to yesterday’s attempted Iranian attacks on US forces based in the Middle East,” stated Central Command.
The post Completion of This Chart Pattern Could Send BTC to $220K, Says Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
South Korea plans to tax crypto gains over $1,740 as political battle moves to parliament
South Korea plans to impose an up to 22% combined tax on annual crypto gains exceeding 2.5 million won ($1,740).
The country plans on taxing cryptocurrency gains from Jan. 1, 2027, signaling that it does not intend to postpone the measure for a fourth time.
The tax was originally due to take effect in January 2022 and had been postponed until 2025. A December 2024 amendment delayed its introduction by another two years, to the start of 2027.
“We are pushing forward with the plan to tax [cryptocurrency] starting next year as scheduled., Deputy Prime Minister Koo Yun-cheol told lawmakers at a July 29 meeting of the National Assembly’s Finance and Economy Planning Committee.
Under the current framework, income from transferring or lending crypto will be taxed separately as “other income.” Investors will receive an annual deduction of 2.5 million won, with gains above that threshold subject to a 20% national tax rate, or 22% including local income tax, according to Korea’s National Tax Service.
Kim Sang-hoon, of the principal opposition People Power Party, criticized the absence of loss carryforwards and warned that investors could shift activity to overseas centralized exchanges, decentralized platforms and peer-to-peer markets.
Crypto World
$1.1B Hedge Fund in Bitcoin Miner Stocks Looks for Capital After AI Drop
Hedge fund Situational Awareness, founded in 2024 by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, is reportedly seeking new funding after taking substantial losses during a recent sell-off in artificial intelligence stocks. The Financial Times said the firm has approached investors and lenders for additional capital, and in some cases has offered investors the chance to buy assets from its portfolio.
The fund—tied to a strategy centered on the infrastructure underpinning AI—was reported by the Wall Street Journal to manage roughly $20 billion in assets under management as of June 8. However, the FT reported that the scale of losses and the amount of capital being sought were not disclosed in the discussions it reviewed, which included a July 24 investor letter.
Key takeaways
- Situational Awareness is reportedly raising fresh capital after losses tied to the July sell-off in AI-related equities.
- According to the Financial Times, borrowing amplified the impact of the downturn on the fund’s leveraged positions.
- The fund’s reported AI-infrastructure focus includes trades connected to data centers and power, with past disclosures referencing stakes in Bitcoin mining firms.
- In addition to seeking funding, the firm has reportedly offered some investors the option to purchase portfolio assets.
Why the AI sell-off became a funding story
The immediate catalyst for Situational Awareness’s capital push appears to be the market turbulence that hit AI stock momentum in July. The FT linked the losses to the broader “AI stock collapse” during that rout and emphasized that the fund’s risk profile was made more severe by increased borrowing.
While the FT did not provide a dollar figure for losses or the size of the capital requirement, it reported that Aschenbrenner’s fund had gained 439% after fees through June, as described in the July 24 investor letter. The same letter suggests that strong earlier performance did not prevent a rapid drawdown once AI equities sold off—particularly because leverage can magnify both gains and losses.
That leverage detail matters to investors because it helps explain how a thematic equity thesis—AI infrastructure—can still unravel quickly when valuation compression and liquidity pressures hit the complex simultaneously. The situation also reflects a recurring pattern in crowded “platform” trades: when the market reprices the expected earnings power of AI beneficiaries, funds exposed to those segments may require external capital to stabilize their balance sheets.
What Situational Awareness is betting on
Situational Awareness’s strategy has been described as focused on the physical backbone of AI: the power generation, data centers, and related infrastructure that enable compute-heavy systems. In earlier reporting, Cointelegraph noted that the fund made a notable bet around that infrastructure theme, including investments connected to Bitcoin miners pivoting into AI computing.
Cointelegraph previously pointed to a March filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that showed approximately $1.11 billion in positions across seven Bitcoin miner stocks. The stocks cited in that disclosure included IREN, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms, and CleanSpark, among others.
That matters in the current context because it ties the fund’s AI infrastructure thesis to a sector that has its own cycle of operational risk, capital intensity, and market sensitivity. Even if the longer-term narrative is about compute supply, short-term market swings can still create liquidity and valuation pressures for holders of infrastructure-linked equities.
Investors were also offered a chance to buy assets
The Financial Times reported that the fund’s efforts have not been limited to classic fundraising. It said Situational Awareness has offered some investors the option to buy portfolio assets—an approach that can be used when a manager wants to reduce exposure or improve liquidity without immediately selling positions into a weak market.
According to the FT, the account relied on people briefed on the discussions. The report also cited the fund’s July 24 investor letter while noting that the specific amounts involved were not disclosed publicly.
For investors, asset-purchase offers can create a different decision set than a capital raise. Instead of simply assessing whether to contribute more cash, counterparties may need to evaluate the underlying securities at a point in time when market prices may reflect fear or forced selling. That dynamic can produce opportunities for investors willing to underwrite longer-term fundamentals, but it also introduces questions about what happens next if market conditions remain unsettled.
Aschenbrenner’s AGI expectations and the timing
Beyond the immediate funding pressure, the broader storyline includes how closely the fund’s emergence aligned with Aschenbrenner’s public discussion of artificial general intelligence. Cointelegraph previously reported that he authored a series of essays on artificial general intelligence in mid-2024, around the time he launched Situational Awareness, discussing how he believed AGI machines could outpace college graduates by the end of the decade.
Those views help frame why the fund may have been positioned for a sustained build-out of AI-related infrastructure rather than a short-term trade. Yet the funding request underscores an important asymmetry: even a conviction-driven infrastructure thesis can still be pressured by market mechanics—especially when leverage is used to scale returns.
As of publication, Cointelegraph said it contacted Situational Awareness for comment and had not received a response.
What to watch next
Investors watching this situation should focus on two things: whether Situational Awareness secures the capital it seeks without further destabilizing its leveraged positions, and how any asset-buyback offers to investors are priced relative to the market’s ongoing repricing of AI-exposed equities. The next reports—particularly any updates that clarify the scale of losses, borrowing, and proposed restructuring—will determine whether this becomes a one-off liquidity event or a longer process of portfolio adjustment.
Crypto World
Australia Takes Telegram to Court Over Extremist Content
Telegram, the messaging platform used by more than 1 billion people worldwide, is facing a major legal challenge in Australia over claims that it failed to stop the spread of terrorism-linked material.
Australia’s online safety regulator, the eSafety Commissioner, launched civil penalty proceedings against Telegram in the Federal Court on Thursday, according to an official statement.
The authority alleged Telegram breached its obligations under the country’s Online Safety Act to address “pro-terror” content by failing to act on multiple user complaints.
The case adds to growing global scrutiny of Telegram’s moderation practices, following legal pressure on CEO Pavel Durov in Russia and France as governments increasingly examine how major online platforms handle harmful content.
Australia alleges Telegram ignored repeated warnings
ESafety said its year-long investigation found that Telegram failed to remove certain unlawful material after becoming aware of it, with some reported content remaining visible for up to three weeks.
The regulator also alleged that Telegram did not take sufficient steps to prevent repeated violations, including removing accounts, channels and groups used to distribute pro-terror material.
According to eSafety, Telegram also failed to detect known extremist content, including footage from the 2019 Christchurch mosque shootings and the 2022 Buffalo mass shooting, before the material was later removed.
Related: Pavel Durov says Telegram to roll out native Gram crypto wallet
The regulator is seeking financial penalties, with violations of Australia’s online safety rules carrying potential fines of up to 54.6 million Australian dollars ($35.8 million).
Telegram has not issued an official statement on the Australian proceedings, but its official X account posted a video captioned “freedom of expression.”
Telegram did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request to comment on this story.
Russia intensifies legal pressure on Durov
Australia’s legal action came a day after Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) charged Durov with facilitating terrorist activity and said it had begun procedures to place him on an international wanted list.
Russian authorities alleged that Telegram failed to remove channels, chats and bots that Ukrainian intelligence services, terrorist groups and extremist organizations used to coordinate attacks, recruit operatives and carry out cyber fraud.
Telegram has also not issued an official statement on the latest legal developments in Russia, but posted an image of Durov making a profane hand gesture.

Source: Telegram Messenger
Durov also remains under investigation in France following his August 2024 arrest at Le Bourget Airport. French prosecutors charged him with offenses including complicity in the distribution of illegal content, including material related to organized crime, through Telegram.
Durov has previously criticized what he described as growing threats to online privacy, warning that governments were rolling back protections for the free internet.
“What was once the promise of the free exchange of information is being turned into the ultimate tool of control,” he wrote in an October 2025 post on X.
Magazine: The real reason DeFi projects that survived 2022 crash are shutting down now
Crypto World
Pavel Durov’s Telegram messaging app faces new terror charges. Now in Australia.
Australian authorities are taking Telegram to court over an alleged failure to remove terror-related content, including video of the March 2019 shooting at a Christchurch, New Zealand mosque in which 51 people were murdered, several news outlets reported Thursday.
Julie Inman-Grant, Australia’s Safety Commissioner, said the messaging app founded by Pavel Durov faced a fine of up to $38 million for failing to comply with its obligations under the Online Safety Act, the BBC said.
“This case concerns content linked to some of the most notorious acts of known extremist violence in recent history, including material associated with the Christchurch and Buffalo terror attacks,” Inman-Grant said in a statement, according to Reuters.
“We reject these allegations and will contest them in court,” a spokesperson for Telegram said in response to Reuters a request for comment. Telegram’s anti-terrorism efforts are well-documented, with thousands of extremist communities blocked by the platform in 2026 alone, the spokesperson told the news agency.
Telegram, home of many crypto-related discussion groups, hosting project communities, trading groups, bots and blockchain-based mini apps, did not immediately respond to a CoinDesk request for further comment.
Crypto World
Samsung SDS Targets Stablecoin Infrastructure With Dunamu
Samsung SDS, the IT services arm of Samsung Group, is exploring stablecoin infrastructure, digital asset systems and AI-based payment models with Dunamu, the operator of Upbit, one of the biggest local cryptocurrency exchanges.
Samsung SDS said it is discussing potential cooperation with Dunamu on stablecoin infrastructure, digital asset systems and AI-based payment business models, CEO Lee Jun-hee said during the company’s second-quarter earnings call on Thursday.
“We have already secured differentiated business capabilities in digital asset infrastructure through the Korea Securities Depository’s tokenized securities platform project and through end-to-end validation […] of the full stablecoin process from issuance to settlement,” Lee said. He said he expects the relationship with Dunamu will help Samsung SDS expand in the digital asset infrastructure market.
The news came days after Samsung Electronics unveiled plans to add stablecoin support to Samsung Wallet, broadening the company’s digital asset push.
Strategic investment targets digital finance
In May 2026, Samsung Securities, Samsung SDS and Samsung Card agreed to buy a combined 4% stake in Dunamu, deepening Samsung affiliates’ ties to South Korea’s digital asset sector.
In the latest Q2 call, Lee reportedly said the company’s investment in Dunamu is a strategic move rather than a financial investment, adding that both companies plan to refine potential business models for digital financial infrastructure.

Source: Samsung SDS
“By combining Samsung SDS’s IT services, cloud, and security capabilities with Dunamu’s blockchain expertise, we aim to lead this market,” the Q2 transcript said.
Related: South Korea report proposes stablecoin rules before crypto law
Samsung SDS did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment, while Dunamu declined to comment.
AI growth supports broader expansion
The digital asset initiative comes amid Samsung SDS’ ongoing expansion in AI and cloud services, which helped lift Q2 revenue 5.9% year on year to 3.72 trillion Korean won ($2.6 billion), according to the quarterly earnings presentation.
Cloud revenue increased 17% from a year earlier, with external cloud business revenue jumping 75%, driven by demand for Samsung’s cloud platform and graphics processing unit-as-a-service offerings.
The company also reportedly outlined ambitious plans to expand its AI infrastructure from 110 megawatts today to 230 MW by 2029 and more than 800 MW by 2031, underscoring its broader push to build AI infrastructure alongside digital finance services.
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Crypto World
Bitcoin Gains 9% in July, but On-Chain Data Signals Weak Conviction
Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to post its first monthly gain since April, but the rally has unfolded alongside weakening market activity.
The cryptocurrency is up 9.3% in July, while spot trading volume has dropped toward multi-year lows. Institutional demand has also cooled, highlighting a disconnect between price performance and market participation.
Bitcoin Spot Volume Sinks to Its Weakest Month in Nearly 3 Years
According to Coinglass, Bitcoin fell 20.4% in June, marking its worst monthly performance since June 2022. That followed a more modest 3.5% decline in May.
July has broken that losing streak. Bitcoin opened the month near $58,000 on July 1, which also marked its monthly low. The asset has broadly trended higher since then and remains in positive territory despite its recent pullback.
At the time of writing on Thursday, Bitcoin was trading near $64,058, up 0.58% over the past 24 hours.
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However, trading activity has failed to keep pace with the price recovery. K33 Research put average daily Bitcoin spot trading volume at roughly $2.2 billion in July. The firm added that July 2026 is on track to record the lowest average daily BTC spot trading volume since November 2023.
“CME open interest remains near multi-year lows, perpetual futures open interest has stalled around 300,000 BTC,” the report read.
On-chain analyst Darkfost tracked the dip across individual venues. According to the analyst, Bitcoin spot trading volumes have fallen by more than 75% compared with late 2024.
Binance handled just over $35 billion in July, against $246 billion in November 2024. Trading volume declined 85% on Bybit, 67% on OKX, and 61% on Coinbase over the same period.
“Against this backdrop, a return of Bitcoin to a bullish trend seems conditional on a shift in the macro regime, and above all a return of demand, the only real driver capable of pushing volumes back up,” the analyst said.
Glassnode measures the same decline in coins rather than in dollars, removing the effect of the price drop. On that basis, spot volume sits at its lowest since 2019. The falling crypto spot volume has been building across the market for months.
Exchange Flows Show Neither Selling Pressure Nor Scarcity
The second channel is quieter still. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. said there has been no clear directional shift in Bitcoin supply based on exchange transfers.
Bitcoin exchange inflows stand near 60,000 BTC on a 30-day average. That reading sits at roughly 76% of the annual average near 79,000 BTC. Inflows stood close to 100,000 BTC a year ago, a decline of about a quarter over 12 months.
Net flow between deposits and withdrawals is currently near -1,300 BTC, down from a slightly positive figure a week earlier.
“Exchanges are not accumulating additional supply, but there is also no large-scale withdrawal of coins that could create a shortage of liquid supply,” the analyst mentioned.
Glassnode reaches a similar conclusion from the other side. Deposits and withdrawals have both slowed to among the quietest combined levels of the past three years.
“That reads less like distribution or accumulation than like disinterest, a pattern that has often marked the quiet middle of a bear market. With so little moving on-chain, there is not much standing supply positioned to absorb a change in demand should one arrive,” the firm added.
BTC ETF Demand Faded Through July Before Turning Negative
The institutional channel tells the clearest version of the story. Weekly flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs turned positive in early July, then shrank every week until they flipped.
The week ending July 10 drew $197.4 million. The following weeks pulled in $75.7 million and $33.8 million. The week to July 29 recorded a net outflow of $29.3 million.
The scale is modest against recent history. Record June ETF outflows reached the billions, so July’s numbers may point to indifference rather than flight.
Overall, Bitcoin’s July rebound appears to rest on a fragile foundation. Seasonality adds another potential headwind. Bitcoin has finished each of the past four Augusts in negative territory, with a median monthly return of -7.49%.
To break that pattern, the market may need a meaningful catalyst alongside a revival in institutional and spot demand. Without those drivers, July’s price gains could prove difficult to sustain.
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The post Bitcoin Gains 9% in July, but On-Chain Data Signals Weak Conviction appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
AI Fund With Bitcoin Miner Bets Seeks Capital After Rout: FT
Situational Awareness, the hedge fund founded in 2024 by ex-OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has approached investors and lenders for fresh capital after suffering heavy losses in the recent artificial intelligence stock sell-off, the Financial Times reported Thursday.
The fund, which the Wall Street Journal said had around $20 billion in assets under management as of June 8, has also offered some investors the option to buy portfolio assets, according to the FT, citing people briefed on the discussions and a July 24 investor letter.
The size of the losses and amount sought were not disclosed. Aschenbrenner’s fund had gained 439% after fees through June, according to the letter, but the FT said borrowing increased the size of the fund’s bets, driving up losses when AI stocks collapsed during July’s market rout. Aschenbrenner also reportedly argued in the letter that the sell-off had created attractive investment opportunities.
Cointelegraph previously reported that the fund had made a big bet in its portfolio around the power and data centers supporting AI, including Bitcoin (BTC) miners pivoting into AI computing. A filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in March showed about $1.11 billion in positions across seven Bitcoin miner stocks, including IREN, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark.
Aschenbrenner wrote a series of essays on artificial general intelligence in mid-2024 around the same time he launched his Situational Awareness fund. In it, he predicted that AGI machines will outpace college graduates by the end of the decade.
Cointelegraph contacted Situational Awareness for comment but had not received a response by publication.
Related: Bitcoin mining’s 2026 reckoning: AI pivots, margin pressure and a fight to survive
Crypto World
Can AI Eliminate Impermanent Loss?
Impermanent loss has long been one of the biggest challenges facing liquidity providers (LPs) in decentralized finance (DeFi). While automated market makers (AMMs) have revolutionized decentralized trading, they expose LPs to the risk of earning less than simply holding their assets whenever prices diverge significantly.
As artificial intelligence becomes increasingly integrated into DeFi protocols, many investors are asking an intriguing question:
Can AI finally eliminate impermanent loss?
The short answer is not entirely—but AI can dramatically reduce its impact. Let’s explore how.
Understanding Impermanent Loss
Impermanent loss occurs when the price ratio between two assets in a liquidity pool changes after you deposit them.
For example:
- You provide ETH and USDC to a liquidity pool.
- ETH doubles in price.
- Arbitrage traders rebalance the pool.
- You end up holding less ETH and more USDC than if you had simply held both assets.
Although trading fees can offset these losses, they aren’t always sufficient during periods of high volatility.
This is why many LPs hesitate to provide liquidity despite attractive yields.
Why Impermanent Loss Exists
Impermanent loss isn’t a bug—it’s a consequence of how AMMs maintain liquidity.
Traditional AMMs like constant-product pools automatically adjust token balances according to mathematical formulas.
These formulas:
- Keep markets liquid
- Allow permissionless trading
- Remove the need for order books
But they cannot predict future prices.
As a result, liquidity providers essentially sell appreciating assets and accumulate depreciating ones automatically.
Enter Artificial Intelligence
AI introduces something AMMs have never possessed:
Prediction.
Instead of relying solely on fixed mathematical curves, AI can analyze:
- Historical price behavior
- Market volatility
- On-chain liquidity movements
- Whale wallet activity
- Trading volume
- Cross-chain capital flows
- Social sentiment
- Macroeconomic events
This allows protocols to make smarter liquidity decisions.
AI Can Optimize Liquidity Placement
Concentrated liquidity protocols require LPs to choose price ranges.
Selecting the wrong range often leads to:
- Reduced fee generation
- Inactive liquidity
- Greater impermanent loss
AI can continuously monitor markets and recommend—or automatically adjust—the optimal liquidity ranges based on:
- Expected volatility
- Trend strength
- Volume concentration
- Support and resistance zones
Instead of manually repositioning liquidity, AI agents could perform these adjustments in real time.
Predictive Risk Management
Machine learning models excel at identifying patterns humans often miss.
Imagine an AI system detecting:
- A surge in exchange inflows
- Whale selling activity
- Rising options volatility
- Negative sentiment across crypto social platforms
The AI could recommend temporarily withdrawing liquidity before significant price swings occur.
After volatility subsides, liquidity could be redeployed.
This proactive strategy reduces exposure to major impermanent loss events.
Dynamic Portfolio Allocation
Rather than placing all assets into a single pool, AI can intelligently diversify liquidity across multiple pools.
For example:
- Stablecoin pools during uncertain markets
- ETH/BTC pools during lower volatility
- Emerging token pools when momentum increases
- Yield-generating vaults when volatility spikes
Capital continuously shifts where risk-adjusted returns are highest.
This resembles how institutional portfolio managers rebalance investments—only AI can do it every minute.
Adaptive Fee Strategies
Some modern AMMs feature dynamic trading fees.
Instead of fixed fees, AI can estimate:
- Expected volatility
- Arbitrage intensity
- Liquidity demand
The protocol can then automatically increase fees during turbulent periods.
Higher fees help compensate LPs for taking on greater risk.
This doesn’t eliminate impermanent loss, but it can significantly offset it.
AI-Powered Hedging
One of AI’s greatest strengths may lie outside the liquidity pool itself.
An intelligent system could automatically hedge LP positions using:
- Perpetual futures
- Options
- Synthetic assets
- Volatility products
For instance:
If AI predicts ETH is likely to experience extreme price movement, it could open a corresponding hedge that offsets potential impermanent loss.
Today, these strategies require sophisticated traders.
Tomorrow, AI agents could execute them autonomously.
Reinforcement Learning for AMMs
Researchers are exploring reinforcement learning, where AI continuously learns from market outcomes.
Instead of relying on static formulas, AI-powered AMMs could adapt their behavior based on:
- Trader activity
- Liquidity utilization
- Historical performance
- Market efficiency
Each market cycle provides new data, enabling the system to improve over time.
Eventually, liquidity allocation could become increasingly optimized with every transaction.
AI and Intent-Based DeFi
The next generation of DeFi may be driven by intent-based systems.
Instead of manually selecting pools, users simply specify their goals:
- Maximize yield
- Minimize impermanent loss
- Preserve capital
- Earn stable income
AI agents then determine:
- Which protocols to use
- When to move liquidity
- How to hedge positions
- When to rebalance
Liquidity management becomes autonomous rather than manual.
The Challenges
Despite its promise, AI cannot eliminate impermanent loss entirely.
Several obstacles remain:
Market Uncertainty
Even advanced AI cannot predict black swan events with certainty.
Unexpected news, protocol exploits, or geopolitical developments can quickly invalidate predictions.
Data Quality
AI is only as effective as the data it receives.
Incomplete or manipulated on-chain data can lead to poor decisions.
Execution Costs
Frequent rebalancing introduces:
- Gas fees
- Slippage
- MEV exposure
- Operational complexity
Sometimes the cost of optimization outweighs the benefits.
Smart Contract Risk
AI strategies still depend on secure smart contracts.
If the underlying protocol is compromised, optimization becomes irrelevant.
The Future: AI as a Liquidity Manager
Rather than replacing AMMs, AI is likely to become their intelligent layer.
Future liquidity providers may no longer choose pools manually.
Instead, autonomous AI agents will:
- Monitor markets 24/7
- Rebalance liquidity automatically
- Hedge risky positions
- Optimize fee generation
- Reduce capital inefficiencies
- Continuously learn from market behavior
Providing liquidity could eventually resemble hiring an AI portfolio manager.
Conclusion
AI is unlikely to eliminate impermanent loss because the phenomenon is rooted in the mechanics of automated market makers and the unpredictability of financial markets. However, it has the potential to substantially reduce its impact through predictive analytics, dynamic liquidity allocation, automated hedging, adaptive fee optimization, and continuous portfolio rebalancing.
As AI agents become more sophisticated and intent-based DeFi matures, liquidity provision could shift from a passive activity to an actively managed, intelligent strategy. The future may not be one where impermanent loss disappears—but one where it becomes far more manageable, allowing liquidity providers to earn more efficiently while taking on less unnecessary risk.
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Bitcoin ETFs on track for their smallest monthly inflows: Crypto Daily
This month, analysts have repeatedly pointed to multiday inflows into the U.S.-listed crypto exchange-traded funds as evidence of the return of institutional demand. Zoom out, though, and the institutional story still looks bleak.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have pulled in just $205 million in net inflows in July, the lowest monthly total on record, according to SoSoValue data. While there are still two trading days left, the figure marks anemic recovery from the heavy red ink of prior months, which saw $2.43 billion exit in May and $4.52 billion in June.
Ether has fared somewhat better. ETH ETFs have attracted $342.85 million in July, almost as much as in April and outperforming bitcoin and other crypto funds. XRP is on track for a fourth consecutive month of inflows, though the sum remains a paltry $13.61 million. Solana ETFs sit at $13.82 million.
Together, the numbers paint a picture of limited institutional appetite at best. Ether’s stronger haul is consistent with its price performance against bitcoin. The Binance-listed ether-bitcoin pair has surged by 11% this month.
Crypto World
Strategy has lost two-thirds of its mNAV in two years
The basic multiple-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) that investors are willing to pay for Michael Saylor’s Strategy has declined by two-thirds over the past two years from 2x to 0.68x.
Exactly 24 months ago, Strategy common stock was worth exactly twice the value of its BTC. For every $1 of BTC the company owned, MSTR traded at $2.
In 2024, there was optimism about Strategy’s ability to positively accrete BTC for shareholders through successful business operations.
As of today, that measure of optimism has declined by exactly two-thirds.

Saylor’s company now holds 843,775 BTC at an average cost of $75,476, uncomfortably higher than the current market below $65,000.
For most of the past two years, its shares commanded a premium to that pile. As that original premium flipped to a discount, the company redefined the term mNAV twice in an attempt to keep it above 1x.
Its latest iteration is holding on by a thread. It read 1.03x yesterday.
Three definitions for mNAV
Basic mNAV is arithmetic a teenager can do. Divide the company’s market capitalization by the dollar value of its BTC. Above 1x means that investors are paying more for the stock than for the BTC. Below it, less.
BitcoinTreasuries.net, which still runs that original calculation, calculates Strategy’s basic mNAV at 0.64x.
Best to dust that number under the rug.
Strategy’s first attempt to redefine mNAV became enterprise value mNAV. This folded in the value of debt and preferred stock into the numerator alongside the market cap of MSTR, the common stock.
Conveniently, loading liabilities onto the top of a fraction made the result larger. The enterprise value-adjusted mNAV therefore sat above 1x long after the basic one had sunk below 1x, and only crossed below 1x in late June 2026.
Predictably, a new-and-improved version of mNAV arrived in July.
Strategy’s dashboard now begins its calculation from a reserve of roughly $57.7 billion in BTC plus dollars, subtracts $6.8 billion of debt and $15.4 billion of preferred stock, and calls the remaining $35.5 billion a net reserve.
It then divides that so-called net reserve by the share count, compares it against a share price of $95.32, and the multiple lands at 1.04x. Voilà.
Read more: How Michael Saylor replaced ‘bitcoin’ with ‘credit’
Redefinitions didn’t stop MSTR from crashing
Saylor pitched the overhaul on the grounds that “Bitcoin capital markets require a new financial language.”
Strategy CEO Phong Le credited investor feedback for an “upgraded” metric that “establishes a 1x threshold for accretive MSTR issuance.”
The redefinition also orphans the company’s entire back catalogue. Strategy’s glossary advises, “Prior to July 23, 2026, the company’s use of the term mNAV referred to a different metric so references to the company’s mNAV calculated prior to that date are not comparable to the company’s mNAV calculated after that date.”
Every mNAV Saylor has ever tweeted prior to this month is, by the company’s own account, incomparable to the one on the company’s own website today.
The same page concedes that despite the label, “it is not equivalent to ‘net asset value’ or ‘NAV’ or any similar metric in the traditional financial context,” and should be used “only by sophisticated investors who understand its limited purpose and many limitations.”
Saylor himself needed seven minutes to define the old mNAV on stage at BTC Prague in June.
Strategy briefly promised shareholders in July 2025 that it wouldn’t dilute MSTR shareholders below 2.5x mNAV, then sold $14.3 billion of stock beneath that line anyway.
On Wednesday, it was 0.68x, and the metric that produced both figures no longer officially exists.
The price of MSTR — the thing that actually matters to shareholders and cannot be redefined — has declined 38% year to date and 76% over the past 12 months.
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