SpaceX stock remained under pressure near a record low as traders prepared for the company’s first post-IPO earnings report and the release of 911.5 million insider shares.

SpaceX stock extends its post-IPO decline

SpaceX stock closed July 31 at $108, down 3.41% during the session and about 36% from its July 1 price of $171. The decline left the shares at their lowest closing level since the company’s June 12 initial public offering.

SPCX has now fallen by more than 50% from the record high of $225 reached on June 16. The sustained pullback has raised the prospect of a move below $100 as two major catalysts approach.

SpaceX is scheduled to publish its first quarterly results as a public company on Aug. 4. Two days later, restrictions covering 911.5 million insider shares are expected to expire, allowing their holders to sell the stock.

Those events could produce large price swings because investors must assess the company’s operating performance while preparing for a possible increase in available supply.

Earnings and short sellers drive the move

Wall Street expects SpaceX to report quarterly revenue of between $6.72 billion and $6.9 billion. Results above that range could ease concerns about the company’s valuation and encourage buyers to return after four consecutive weeks of losses.

A revenue miss could have the opposite effect, particularly because the stock has not established a reliable support base. Traders will also watch management’s guidance for Starlink, launch operations, and the company’s emerging data-center business.

Short positioning has added pressure. S3 Partners data showed that investors had shorted 219.3 million shares, representing about 39% of the stock available for public trading.

The large position means short sellers could continue benefiting if SPCX falls. However, unexpectedly strong earnings could force some traders to cover their positions, creating a short-term rebound.

Bernstein recently maintained an outperform rating and a $239 target after SpaceX completed its 13th Starship test flight. William Blair also reportedly increased its adjusted earnings-per-share estimate from $8.20 to $8.60, citing potential growth from the company’s data-center operations.

Share unlock threatens to increase selling

The Aug. 6 unlock represents the main downside risk because it will make 911.5 million insider shares eligible for sale. At a price of about $108, those shares would carry a market value approaching $98.4 billion, although eligibility does not mean that all holders will sell.

S3 Partners research director Sam Pierson argued that the additional supply could outweigh a positive earnings report.

“There won’t be anything announced on earnings that will overcome the volume of unlocked shares coming to market,” Pierson said.

Actual selling will depend on insider decisions, liquidity and market demand. Even so, the scale of the unlock may discourage investors from buying before Aug. 6, particularly while short interest remains elevated.

For US investors, both events fall within the same trading week. That concentration could increase volatility, widen intraday price ranges and make execution prices less predictable around the earnings release and unlock date.

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SpaceX stock tests $107.10 support

The one-hour SPCX chart shows the stock trading around $108.39 after declining within a broad descending channel. Price is now testing the $107.10 Fibonacci level, which forms the most immediate support.

A confirmed break below $107.10 would remove the final marked retracement support on the chart. That could expose the psychological $100 level, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary near $97.

Trend indicators continue to favor sellers. Aroon Down stands at 92.86%, compared with Aroon Up at 7.14%, showing that recent lows are occurring much more frequently than recent highs.

The Awesome Oscillator is also negative at minus 3.98. Its red histogram bars indicate that bearish momentum remains active as SPCX trades near the bottom of its recent range.

The first upside barrier sits at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $121.09. Reclaiming that price would weaken the immediate bearish setup, but it would not reverse the broader downtrend.

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Further resistance appears at $132.08, corresponding to the 61.8% retracement, followed by $139.80 at the 50% level. SPCX would need to move above the descending channel and hold those levels before the chart supports a more durable recovery.

What comes next for SPCX

The near-term direction will likely depend on whether earnings demand can absorb the potential supply created by the share unlock. A revenue beat and stronger guidance could help SPCX defend $107.10 and challenge $121.09.

Failure to hold $107.10 would increase the risk of a decline below $100. Conversely, a sustained break above $121.09 would provide the first meaningful technical evidence that selling pressure is easing.

With earnings due Aug. 4 and the unlock expected Aug. 6, traders face two separate catalysts capable of moving the stock sharply. Until SPCX reclaims nearby resistance, its descending trend and negative momentum indicators leave sellers in control.

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Russia is tightening its cryptocurrency mining policy again, extending restrictions beyond the regions it targeted earlier and adding Moscow and nearby areas to a long-running ban schedule. A new government resolution takes effect on Aug. 15, 2026, with the prohibition set to run through Dec. 31, 2032.

The update is set out in Resolution No. 936, signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on July 25, 2026, according to records published on Pravo.ru. It revises an earlier mining restriction order from December 2024 and updates the list of places where mining activities are limited due to local electricity concerns.

Key takeaways

• Resolution No. 936 introduces a mining ban for Moscow, the Moscow Region, and parts of Russia’s Kursk Region, beginning Aug. 15, 2026.
• The restrictions will remain in force through Dec. 31, 2032, effectively creating a multi-year compliance horizon for operators.
• The rules follow earlier regional bans launched in December 2024 and other orders that began in 2026 across select parts of Buryatia and Zabaykalsky Krai.
• Officials have previously justified the approach by citing rising electricity demand and the power grid pressure associated with growing data-center loads.

Moscow and Kursk move into the restricted zone

Under the amended framework, the restricted geography expands to include Moscow, the Moscow Region, and additional territories listed within Russia’s Kursk Region. The rules also cover eight municipal districts and the city of Lgov in that region, broadening the affected footprint beyond the original set of localities.

The stated objective remains consistent with earlier restrictions: to limit cryptocurrency mining in areas considered to be facing strain on electricity supply. For miners and infrastructure providers, the practical impact is straightforward—new or continued mining operations in the designated areas may need to pause or restructure well before the Aug. 15, 2026 start date to avoid enforcement risks.

Resolution No. 936 revises the December 2024 order

Resolution No. 936 was signed on July 25, 2026 and amends an earlier prohibition order issued in December 2024. According to Pravo.ru, the change is not a one-off ban: it updates the list of jurisdictions where mining restrictions apply and extends the same restriction concept to additional regions.

That matters for market participants because Russia’s approach is being refined through successive legal instruments rather than replaced wholesale. In practice, operators are being pushed to manage regulatory uncertainty through long planning windows and contingency plans, especially in data-center-heavy regions where power allocation decisions can determine feasibility.

Why authorities linked the bans to power demand

In an earlier statement covering the Moscow Region’s rationale, the energy ministry said the ban was needed because of growing electricity demand. As reported by TASS, the ministry estimated that Moscow and the Moscow Region have 65 data centers connected to the power grid, with a combined capacity of 734 megawatts (MW). The same reporting cited 19 data centers in the Moscow Region with 233 MW of capacity.

Even though the mining restrictions are aimed at cryptocurrency operations, the logic used by officials is tied to the overall electricity system—particularly the growing load from digital infrastructure. For miners, that creates an indirect but significant link between crypto activity and broader regional power planning: where electricity is already earmarked for data centers and other high-consumption uses, regulators may treat mining as additional pressure that the grid cannot easily absorb.

Not the first wave: bans already planned in other regions

This latest expansion builds on restrictions introduced earlier in other parts of Russia. The earlier framework referenced by Pravo.ru points to mining restrictions being introduced in several regions in a prior phase, including parts of Buryatia and Zabaykalsky Krai.

As indicated in the published records, the bans in those areas are scheduled to run from April 1, 2026 through March 15, 2031. That staggered timing creates a rolling pattern: some jurisdictions begin restrictions in 2026 while others—like Moscow—enter a later phase starting Aug. 15, 2026, but continuing for longer overall through 2032.

Investors and operators watching Russia’s policy direction should note the implication: rather than lifting restrictions once an initial window expires, the government is instead layering in additional territories and sustaining multi-year prohibitions. That tends to shift mining activity away from restricted power grids and toward jurisdictions not covered by the latest legal orders—or toward arrangements that can demonstrate compliance with local limits.

For the next phase, the key question is how enforcement will work in the newly included jurisdictions, and whether regulators will continue expanding the restricted map beyond Moscow and Kursk or refine exemptions for specific infrastructure arrangements. Miners with assets near the updated boundaries should monitor local implementation details closely as Aug. 15, 2026 approaches.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest bought 109,129 Circle shares after the stablecoin issuer secured a limited-purpose trust charter in New York.

ARK Invest adds 109,129 Circle shares

ARK purchased 77,103 Circle shares through its flagship ARK Innovation ETF, according to the firm’s daily trade disclosures. The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF added 22,238 shares, while the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF acquired another 9,788.

Together, the purchases totaled 109,129 shares. They were worth approximately $6.83 million based on Circle’s July 31 closing price of $62.61.

The investment extended ARK’s exposure to Circle as the company expands its regulated stablecoin infrastructure in the United States. It also followed ARK’s roughly $40.2 million purchase of Tesla, SpaceX and Nvidia shares on July 28 during a broader technology-sector sell-off.

ARK made several other purchases on July 31, including 298,243 CoreWeave shares, 12,512 shares of the 3iQ Solana Staking ETF, 7,500 Pony AI shares and 2,700 Kodiak AI shares.

The firm reduced its positions in Shopify, Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, 10x Genomics, Komatsu, Brera Holdings, Iridium Communications and Figma.

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Circle secures New York trust charter

ARK’s purchase followed Circle’s receipt of a limited-purpose trust charter from the New York Department of Financial Services. The approval covers Circle Internet Trust Company LLC, which will operate as Circle New York Trust.

A New York limited-purpose trust company can conduct approved virtual currency activities and exercise fiduciary powers. Unlike a BitLicense holder, it can also provide money transmission services in the state without obtaining a separate money transmitter license.

Circle said it plans to gradually move USDC issuance to the New York entity. Circle New York Trust will operate alongside Circle National Trust, the federally chartered national trust bank authorized to provide custody and collateral trustee services.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire described the New York approval as a long-term objective for the company.

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“Earning a New York trust charter has been a longstanding objective for Circle given the regulatory clarity that comes with it.”

He added that the charter places USDC within a strong regulatory framework as digital dollars become more widely used in the global financial system.

Circle builds state and federal oversight

Circle’s New York authorization follows the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s final approval on July 10 for the company to establish Circle National Trust.

The federal trust bank will initially provide fiduciary digital asset custody services to Circle and its affiliates. Circle has also identified management of USDC reserves as a possible future capability, subject to its approved business plan and regulatory requirements.

The two charters give Circle separate state and federal regulatory structures. NYDFS will supervise the New York entity’s approved virtual currency and fiduciary activities, while the OCC will oversee the national trust bank.

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For U.S. investors, the approvals strengthen Circle’s position within the regulated stablecoin market. However, the charters do not remove risks tied to USDC growth, interest-rate changes, competition or Circle’s share valuation.

Circle stock falls despite regulatory progress

Circle stock ended July 31 at $62.61, falling $1.63, or 2.54%, during the session. The decline suggests investors did not immediately treat the New York charter as a reason to reverse the stock’s recent weakness.

CRCL had gained about 10% on July 10 after Circle announced final OCC approval for its national trust bank. The shares subsequently surrendered those gains as the broader technology and digital-asset sectors came under pressure.

ARK’s latest purchase comes as the investment firm expects consolidation across crypto businesses. ARK digital assets research director Lorenzo Valente said on July 28 that revenue and investment were becoming concentrated among fewer companies.

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Valente predicted more acquisitions, bankruptcies, shutdowns and talent-focused deals. However, his post did not identify the dataset, category definitions or measurement period supporting its revenue concentration figures.

Circle is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2026 financial results on Aug. 5, giving investors another measure of whether regulatory progress is translating into stronger USDC activity and company revenue.

Russia has expanded its cryptocurrency mining restrictions to Moscow, with the ban set to take effect on Aug. 15, 2026, and remain in place through Dec. 31, 2032.

Russia’s Resolution No. 936, signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on July 25, 2026, amends an earlier mining restriction order issued in December 2024, according to records published on Pravo.ru.

The updated rules add Moscow, the Moscow Region and several territories in Russia’s Kursk Region to the list of restricted areas. The measure expands existing restrictions on cryptocurrency mining in areas facing electricity supply concerns. The ban also covers eight municipal districts and the city of Lgov in Kursk Region.

Earlier restrictions were also introduced in several Russian regions, including parts of Buryatia and the Zabaykalsky Krai, where a mining ban is set to run from April 1, 2026, through March 15, 2031.

The Moscow Region’s Energy Ministry previously said a mining ban was needed because of growing electricity demand, according to TASS. The ministry estimated that Moscow and the Moscow Region have 65 data centers connected to the power grid with a combined capacity of 734 megawatts (MW), including 19 data centers in the Moscow Region with 233 MW of capacity.

Related: BitRiver founder charged in Russia over alleged $8M fraud

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

A bonfire of vanities in Delhi 

Strategy shares fell 4.56% to $93.28 on July 31 after the company reported an $8.22 billion quarterly loss and prioritized restoring its STRC preferred stock to its $100 par value.

Strategy stock slides after $8.22B quarterly loss

Strategy stock traded as low as $89.21 on Thursday before recovering to close at $93.28. The 4.56% decline took the Nasdaq-listed company below $90 during the session for the first time since July 1.

The decline followed Strategy’s second-quarter results, which included an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings. That pushed the company to a net loss of $8.22 billion, or $24.45 per share, during the quarter.

Strategy held 843,775 BTC at the end of the reporting period, representing a 25% increase from the start of the year. The company acquired the holdings for approximately $63.69 billion at an average price of $75,476 per coin.

Lower Bitcoin prices reduced the market value of the position to about $54.77 billion. Under fair-value accounting rules, changes in Bitcoin’s market price flow through Strategy’s reported earnings, exposing quarterly results to large swings.

Operating revenue offered one positive data point. Revenue increased 6.9% from $114.5 million in the comparable period last year to $122.4 million.

Why Strategy is prioritizing STRC over immediate BTC purchases

Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said during the earnings call that Strategy would move away from directing all available funds toward immediate Bitcoin purchases. The company instead plans to maintain a combination of cash and BTC.

“Perhaps the best way to buy the most Bitcoin is not to buy the most Bitcoin immediately,” Saylor said.

Chief Executive Phong Le said Strategy would refrain from buying additional Bitcoin while STRC traded below its $100 par value. The company’s variable-rate preferred stock ended July 31 at approximately $89.

Strategy repurchased about $25 million of STRC between July 20 and July 24 while raising $544 million through sales of its common stock. The transactions indicate that management views support for the preferred share as necessary to preserve its broader capital-raising model.

Restoring STRC to par could improve investor confidence in Strategy’s preferred securities and make future issuance more efficient. Those instruments have become part of the company’s strategy for raising capital without relying exclusively on common-share sales or conventional debt.

Strategy also held a $3.75 billion cash reserve, giving it room to cover dividend and interest obligations without selling Bitcoin during a market downturn.

MSTR chart points to weak momentum near $90

The daily chart shows Strategy stock trading near the lower end of its recent consolidation range. Thursday’s decline took the price below the Bollinger Band midpoint at $96.04 and toward the lower band at $90.31.

A daily close below $90.31 could confirm renewed selling pressure and expose the late-June low around $81 to $82. That area marked the bottom of the stock’s decline before its July stabilization.

The Average Directional Index stood at 13.13. An ADX reading below 20 generally indicates that the market lacks a strong directional trend, suggesting Strategy shares remain in consolidation despite the latest bearish session.

On the upside, MSTR would first need to recover above the $96.04 midpoint. A sustained move above that level could place the upper Bollinger Band at $101.77 within reach.

The narrow distance between the bands also shows that volatility has contracted following the stock’s steep decline from its May high near $200. A break outside the $90.31–$101.77 range could determine its next short-term direction.

Wall Street analysts retain bullish Strategy targets

Benchmark maintained its buy rating on Strategy but reduced its price target from $570 to $435. Analyst Mark Palmer said Saylor’s focus on bringing STRC back to par could strengthen the company’s ability to raise funds for future Bitcoin purchases.

Benchmark also kept its ratings on Strategy after its Q2 call, similarly citing STRC preferred stock parity as now management’s central objective.

However, the firms split on price, with Benchmark cutting to $435 from $570 and TD Cowen at $260, after an $8.2 billion quarterly… pic.twitter.com/DVx2rWiHEb

— The Block (@TheBlockCo) July 31, 2026

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H.C. Wainwright also maintained a buy rating and assigned Strategy stock a $325 target. The firm cited the company’s cash reserve and STRC repurchases as measures that could strengthen its balance sheet and limit the need to take on additional debt.

Both targets imply substantial upside from the July 31 closing price. However, their outlooks remain closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance and Strategy’s ability to issue securities on favorable terms.

For US investors, MSTR remains a publicly traded way to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin without holding the asset directly. That exposure also carries company-specific risks, including preferred-share obligations, equity dilution and earnings volatility caused by Bitcoin fair-value adjustments.

Bitcoin and STRC remain the next key catalysts

Strategy’s short-term stock performance will likely depend on whether STRC moves back toward $100 and whether Bitcoin recovers above the company’s average acquisition cost.

Management’s decision to preserve cash does not amount to abandoning its Bitcoin strategy. Instead, it delays immediate purchases while the company works to support the securities used to finance future acquisitions.

MSTR could remain range-bound while the ADX stays weak. A close below $90 would strengthen the downside case, while a recovery above $101.77 would signal that buyers are regaining control.

Galaxy Research, the research arm of Galaxy Digital, has expanded the on-chain scope of the Coldcard wallet incident after identifying 1,196 affected Bitcoin addresses. In a 41-minute window, those addresses lost a total of 1,082.65 BTC—worth about $70.2 million at the time the transactions occurred.

The new findings push earlier estimates further, helping clarify what attackers may have executed immediately after the vulnerable wallets generated seeds. Galaxy Research’s tracing covers movements between 1:10 AM and 1:51 AM UTC on July 30 across blocks 960,183 to 960,191, roughly 30 hours before Coldcard published its first security advisory.

Key takeaways

• Galaxy Research identified 1,196 addresses tied to the Coldcard incident and traced losses of 1,082.65 BTC in a 41-minute period.
• The identified activity occurred between 1:10 AM and 1:51 AM UTC on July 30, across blocks 960,183–960,191, about 30 hours before Coldcard’s initial advisory.
• Earlier estimates by AnchorWatch CEO Rob Hamilton were lower, pointing to 594.48 BTC moving through a tighter three-block window.
• Galaxy Research says the transactions share a distinctive pattern on-chain—identical 30 satoshis per virtual byte fees and no change outputs—but future sweeps may differ.

Galaxy Research broadens the attack map

Galaxy Research says it traced the Bitcoin movements tied to the incident to a specific burst of activity on July 30. The research effort focuses on addresses linked to the Coldcard wallet compromise that were swept between 1:10 AM and 1:51 AM UTC.

According to Galaxy Research, the losses accumulated across a short span of blocks—960,183 through 960,191—indicating that the attack likely operated with automation and repeated transaction structure rather than sporadic manual movement. At the time of the outgoing transfers, the 1,082.65 BTC figure was valued at approximately $70.2 million.

The timing is also notable: Galaxy Research’s tracing window began about a day before Coldcard’s first publicly issued security advisory, suggesting that the compromised funds were moved early and that the response cycle lagged behind the initial sweep.

Pattern matching helps confirm related transactions—within limits

In follow-up analysis, Galaxy Research said the identified transactions share a common signature. The company reported that the sweeps used identical 30 satoshis per virtual byte fees and that the transactions contained no change outputs.

Those characteristics are useful for investigators because they provide an on-chain fingerprint for clustering wallet-related activity, which can reduce the chances of misattributing unrelated transfers. Galaxy Research also cautioned that while the initial attack activity is identifiable through this pattern, later attacks against Coldcard-generated addresses may not preserve the same fingerprint.

For users and analysts, this distinction matters: it implies that incident totals based solely on one recognizable transaction structure could undercount additional rounds of activity if those later sweeps differed in fee settings or output behavior.

Earlier estimates were smaller, but based on a narrower window

Before Galaxy Research’s broader mapping, earlier preliminary analysis by AnchorWatch CEO and co-founder Rob Hamilton estimated that 594.48 BTC—about $38 million at the time—moved across 500 transactions within a three-block window.

Hamilton’s figures were drawn from a tighter segment of on-chain activity, reflecting how fast-moving wallet incidents often outpace early investigations. Galaxy Research’s expanded set effectively updates the picture by widening both the address set and the traced timeframe around the July 30 burst, nearly doubling the total BTC attributed to the sweep activity.

The divergence between estimates underscores a common challenge in incident response for self-custody systems: determining full scope can require days of tracing, clustering, and validation—particularly when attackers reuse similar logic across multiple transactions and destinations.

Coinkite acknowledges a firmware bug and advises seed migration

Coldcard’s manufacturer, Coinkite, has taken responsibility for the underlying issue. In an X post on Friday, Coinkite co-founder Rodolfo Novak said the company is working to determine the full scope of the problem and confirmed that it released a hotfix designed to remove a software fallback path.

Novak also emphasized a limitation of the mitigation: the update does not protect seeds generated on the vulnerable firmware. In practical terms, users who created seed phrases during the affected period were advised to move funds to a new seed.

This guidance aligns with the core risk in seed-based compromises—if a vulnerability affects how seed material or related execution paths behave, merely updating firmware may not retroactively secure already-generated keys. The immediate operational implication for affected holders is that recovery requires a transfer to safer key material, not just a device update.

What to watch next for affected users

Galaxy Research’s identification of a common on-chain sweep pattern offers a more structured basis for tracking related activity, but the company’s warning that future attacks may not match the same fingerprint suggests the incident may still evolve in how it appears on-chain. Users concerned about whether they generated seeds with vulnerable firmware should focus on migrating remaining balances to newly generated seeds and continue monitoring for any residual movement tied to addresses linked to the sweep logic.