Business
F&O Talk: Nifty lacks direction on charts, says Sudeep Shah; outlines Bajaj Finance, Eternal strategy after Q1
Sensex rose 166.5 points to close at 78,095, while the Nifty 50 gained over 66 points to end the session at 24,384. Broader markets also remained in the green, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices rising more than 0.4%.
Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and bank, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
Nifty has rebounded almost 3% this week. What is your view on Nifty going forward?
Over the past 15 weeks, the benchmark Nifty has remained range-bound, oscillating between 24,601 and 23,070. This trading range has narrowed further over the last seven weeks, with the index confined within a tighter band of 24,530-23,605, reflecting a lack of strong conviction from both bulls and bears. Despite this prolonged consolidation, recent price action hints that the balance may be shifting.
Over the last six trading sessions, the index has staged a sharp recovery of more than 760 points, enabling it to end the month with gains of over 2% while closing near the upper end of its consolidation range. The rebound was primarily driven by heavyweights, with large-cap stocks leading the market higher. Notably, Nifty has formed candles with shadows on both sides for four consecutive months, underscoring the prevailing market indecision. So, what do the technical indicators suggest about the market’s next move?
From a technical perspective, the index is currently trading above its 20, 50, and 100-day EMA levels, while hovering around its 200-day EMA. On the weekly chart, all major moving averages remain largely flat, indicating the absence of a sustained trend. Momentum indicators and oscillators on both the daily and weekly timeframes also continue to signal a sideways bias. With the setup approaching a critical juncture, the next few levels are likely to decide the market’s direction.
Going forward, the 24,550-24,600 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance area, as it coincides with previous swing highs. A decisive breakout above 24,600 could pave the way for a rally towards 24,900, with the potential to extend further to 25,200 in the near term. On the downside, the 24,150-24,100 zone is likely to provide strong support, and holding above this region will be crucial for maintaining the positive bias.
IT index jumped a staggering 7% this week. How are charts looking and what’s the strategy for stocks in the sector?
Nifty IT has staged a strong recovery, rallying nearly 18.5% from its July 1 low of 25,699. While the index recently faced resistance near its 200-day EMA and witnessed some profit booking, the broader technical structure has improved considerably.The index has reclaimed its 20-week EMA for the first time since January 2026, indicating a meaningful improvement in the medium-term trend. Additionally, the MACD remains in a bullish crossover with rising green histogram bars, reflecting upward momentum.
The 29,800–29,750 zone is expected to act as immediate support. As long as the index sustains above this zone, the ongoing pullback is likely to extend towards higher levels.
Within the IT space, Persistent Systems, HCLTech, Tech Mahindra, and Coforge continue to display strong price structures and are well placed to extend their recovery, provided they hold above their respective support zones.
Any inputs on the Seasonality front, are there any interesting observations pertaining to the Market Trend over the last 10 years?
The Sensex has exhibited a relatively mixed performance during the month of August over the last 11 years. The index has ended the month in positive territory in 6 out of 11 years, delivering an average gain of 3.42%, while it has closed in the red on 5 occasions, with an average decline of 2.71%. Notably, in 2 of the last 3 years, namely 2023 and 2025, the Sensex ended August with losses of 2.55% and 1.69%, respectively.
Nifty’s performance has largely mirrored that of the Sensex. Over the last 11 years, the index has ended August higher in 6 years, posting an average gain of 3.46%, while it has recorded negative returns in 5 years, with an average loss of 2.58%. Similar to the Sensex, Nifty ended August in the red in 2023 and 2025, declining by 2.53% and 1.38%, respectively.
Historically, the FMCG sector has demonstrated favorable seasonality during August. Based on the last 20 years of historical data, the FMCG index has ended the month in positive territory in 13 out of 20 years, delivering an average gain of 2.84%. Since the post-COVID recovery period, the sector has witnessed only one negative August performance, falling 2.93% in August 2023, while ending the month in the green in all other years.
The PSE sector has also exhibited strong long-term August seasonality, ending the month higher in 12 out of the last 20 years with an average gain of 3.07%. However, recent trends have been less encouraging, with the index closing August in negative territory in each of the last three years, registering an average decline of 2.52% during this period.
The Auto sector has historically been one of the strongest performers during August. The index has ended the month in the green in 12 out of the last 20 years, generating an average gain of 5.30%. From a technical perspective, the index gave a 25,296-27,761 consolidation breakout on the daily timeframe. Given the sector’s historically favorable August seasonality, a sustained move above the upper end of the consolidation range could potentially trigger a fresh leg of the uptrend and pave the way for further upside in the coming month.
The IT sector has also displayed robust August seasonality. Over the last 20 years, the index has ended the month in positive territory in 12 instances, delivering an average gain of 5.87%. More recently, the index generated gains of over 4% in August 2023 and August 2024, while recording only a modest decline of 0.34% in August 2025. From a technical standpoint, the Nifty IT Index has rebounded nearly 18.5% from its low of 25,699 recorded on 1 July, indicating improving sentiment within the sector. If historical seasonality trends continue to play out, the ongoing recovery could extend further, allowing the index to build on its recent gains and outperform during the upcoming month.
What is the options data indicating about Nifty’s near-term trading range, and where are the key Call and Put positions building up?
Nifty has rebounded 778 points from its July 24 low of 23,606. Encouragingly, the index closed marginally above its 200-day EMA for the first time since July 6, indicating an improvement in the near-term technical structure.
From a broader perspective, however, Nifty continues to trade within the 24,531–23,606 range. Notably, the index had failed to sustain above its 200-day EMA on July 7, triggering a corrective decline. Therefore, the 24,550–24,600 zone remains a crucial hurdle on the upside.
The options data reinforces this view. The 24,600 strike has witnessed aggressive Call writing, with Call additions nearly 16 times higher than Put writing, making it a strong resistance zone. A decisive breakout above 24,600 could trigger fresh short covering, paving the way for further upside.
On the downside, the 24,000 strike holds the highest Put Open Interest, with Put writing nearly nine times higher than Call writing. This makes 24,000 a strong support level. However, a sustained breach below this mark could force Put writers to unwind their positions, potentially accelerating the downside move.
What are some stocks that are looking good for the week ahead?
Technically, Chola Finance, Paytm, Motherson, Torrent Pharma and Siemens are looking good.
What’s your strategy for Eternal, Vedanta, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, and Infosys?
Eternal:
Eternal gave a consolidation breakout on July 28 and has also closed above the previous three weeks’ high, reinforcing the bullish setup. The stock is trading above all key short and long-term moving averages, while the weekly RSI continues to trend higher, indicating strengthening momentum. The Rs 290–285 zone, which coincides with the 20-day EMA, is expected to act as a strong support. The bullish bias is likely to remain intact as long as the stock holds above this support.
Vedanta:
Vedanta is consolidating within a Rs 270–259 range, with the stock oscillating between its 20-day and 200-day EMAs, reflecting a lack of clear directional bias. The MACD has flattened and remains below the zero line, indicating a sideways trend. A decisive breakout above Rs 270 or a breakdown below Rs 259 is likely to provide the next directional move.
Adani Ports:
Adani Ports has broken below an upward-sloping trendline support on the daily chart and has since drifted lower. The stock has also slipped below its 100-day EMA, while the RSI continues to trend lower, reflecting weakening momentum. The rising ADX suggests that the prevailing downtrend is gaining strength. As long as the stock trades below the Rs 1,775–1,780 zone, the bearish bias is likely to persist.
Bajaj Finance:
Bajaj Finance retested its 20-day EMA and witnessed a strong rebound, reaffirming the underlying bullish trend. Earlier, the stock had broken above a downward-sloping trendline resistance on July 1, followed by a healthy rally and a successful retest of the breakout zone, which has now turned into a strong support.
The RSI has turned higher after consolidating around the 60 mark, signalling a revival in bullish momentum. At the same time, the DI+ remains well above DI-, highlighting strong buying interest. The stock is also trading above the upper Bollinger Band, a characteristic often seen during strong trending phases.
Adding to the positive outlook, the Bajaj Finance/Nifty Financial Services ratio chart has broken above a downward-sloping trendline on the weekly timeframe, indicating the stock is well placed to outperform its benchmark in the near term. The Rs 1,075–1,070 zone is expected to act as a strong support, and the bullish bias is likely to remain intact as long as this level holds.
Infosys:
Infosys faced stiff resistance near its 100-day EMA and ended the session lower. Despite recovering more than 10% from its July 24 low of Rs 1,014, the stock has struggled to sustain higher levels. The RSI has slipped below the 60 mark, indicating a pause in bullish momentum. The Rs 1,170–1,175 zone remains the immediate resistance, and a decisive breakout above this range could trigger a further extension of the ongoing pullback.
Business
Fifa’s World Cup plan never stacked up – here are 4 reasons why
In the slides, Fifa’s central argument was that football does not raise enough cash in relation to its fan base, that “Fifa has been under-monetised versus other leagues” and so “global football development gets squeezed”.
It did this with reference to a comparative chart showing annual revenue as well as revenue per fan for Fifa, the Uefa Champions League, Premier League, US baseball and NFL American football.
On the face of it, Fifa is the poorer cousin at just $1 per global fan, compared to NFL’s $52.8. But this measure is rather suspect.
The World Cup is not an annual competition; it happens once every four years. If instead this was done on revenue per World Cup 2026 match, Fifa makes multiples of the Premier League, perhaps more than three times as much.
As important, football is decentralised globally, so more of the revenues go to individual leagues, such as the Premier League or Champions League. Fifa was effectively arguing it wanted to keep more of that overall football pie.
Football’s fans are also spread across the globe, in rich and poor countries alike. NFL has a much smaller base concentrated in the US and is pretty much the whole of American Football.
Finally, about half of NFL’s revenues are paid out as wages. Fifa does not pay Erling Haaland or Lionel Messi or Vozinha. Profits would have yielded a rather different result than the chart’s focus on revenues.
Business
Seatrium Limited 2026 Q2 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (OTCMKTS:SMBMY) 2026-08-01
Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team
Business
Documents reveal contents of the first telegraph message between India & England
The sylvan Porthcurno valley in Cornwall, located on the Atlantic coast 506 km south-west of London, was the unlikely place of a revolution that enabled Britain and its former colonies to communicate with each other.
Museum officials told a visiting PTI correspondent that Porthcurno was the hub of international cable communications from 1870 to 1970, and a training college for the communications industry until 1993.
Now a museum housing rare equipment and details of the history of telegraph, Porthcurno has been granted millions of pounds in funding to develop an international education programme that includes community groups in India.
Among its rare archives discovered last week is a collection of the first telegraph messages sent from Porthcurno and Mumbai (then Bombay).
Until that landmark day, communication between England and India was unreliable, and often took months.
According to the document, the first message was dispatched on the night of 23 June, 1870, and a reply was received in 5 minutes, which was a technological feat at the time.The message was called a ‘complimentary telegram’ between the ‘Managing Director in London and the Manager in Bombay’.
The first message was from ‘Anderson to Stacey: How are you all?’, to which the reply was: ‘All well’.
The second message from Anderson was: ‘Please ask gentlemen of the press, Bombay, to send a message to gentlemen of the press, New York’.
After several messages that night, including some to the governor of Bombay, from Lady Mayo to viceroy Lord Mayo based in Shimla, and one from the Prince of Wales to the viceroy, a response was received from journalists based in Bombay.
It said: ‘From the Press of India to the Press of America: The Press of India sends salaam to the Press of America. Reply quick’.
The document notes that the viceroy of India had sent a telegraph to the president of the United States and “received a reply which reached him in 7 hours 40 minutes”.
The viceroy’s message, which was read in the American Congress the same evening, was: “The Viceroy of India for the first time speaks direct by telegraph with the President of the United States. May the completion of the long line of uninterrupted communication be the emblem of lasting union between the Eastern and Western World”.
Telegraphic communication with India was first established in 1864 by overland telegraph lines from Europe to the top of the Persian Gulf and then by an undersea cable to Karachi, but the overland section was never satisfactory, prompting efforts to lay more reliable cables below the sea.
In 1869, telegraph pioneer John Pender established the British Indian Submarine Telegraph Company, whose task was to lay undersea cables to India.
The five ships used to lay the thousands of km of cables were the Great Eastern, William Cory, Chiltern, Hawk and Hibernia.
It took six weeks to lay the cables from Suez to Bombay. This was followed by the laying of the final link from Malta to Porthcurno.
It was the first long distance cable ‘chain’, and opened to the public with much jubilation, museum records show.
After the link with India was established, Porthcurno was linked by undersea cables to several other areas across the world.
At its height, it was the world’s largest station with 14 cables in operation. Porthcurno’s telegraphic codename was ‘PK’.
During World War II, tunnels were dug by Cornish miners to house an underground building and Porthcurno’s entire telegraph operations.
The building today houses the museum and archives that started the communication revolution in the late nineteenth century.
Besides 1.44 million pounds funding received in January, the museum this week has been granted 35,000 pounds from the international telecommunications organisation SubOptic to develop an education project with community groups in India, among other countries.
Museum officials said the money will fund an international education programme that will benefit users from spring 2013.
It will include online learning resources, including video clips, animations and games that will enable users to discover the science of global cable-based telecommunications, as well as its impacts on local identity, democracy and culture.
Business
Exclusive | Tesla Weighs Sale of China Business to Pave Way for Potential SpaceX Merger
Elon Musk designed Tesla’s TSLA China business to be easily separated from its U.S. business because of geopolitical tensions. It might also come in handy if he proceeds with a SpaceX SPCX merger.
Musk in recent years instructed Tesla executives to organize the company with a “laser” between its U.S. and China businesses, according to people familiar with the planning. He wanted to ensure that in the event of geopolitical strife between the two countries, at least the U.S. half of Tesla would survive.
Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
Business
India Meteorological Department to use dynamic models for forecasts
M Rajeevan of National Atmospheric Research Laboratory said, “the failure to predict the 2009 drought has raised many serious issues. On the other hand, the state-of-the art coupled ocean atmospheric models have sho-wed improved skills in predicting inter annual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall.”
He was speaking at the golden jubilee conference of Indian Institute of Climate Change (IITM), Pune, on ‘opportunities and challenges in monsoon prediction in changing climate’. Since 2011, the IITM has used the coupled model for monsoon forecast.
Better weather forecast needs data from all parts of the globe. “In every part of the world, farmers are saying that the climate is not as it used to be. Hence, traditional knowledge is also failing. For better prediction of weather, we need observations from all countries. We need super computers of even higher capacities. We need to have knowledge about how to translate scientific progress into concrete applications,” said Michel Jarraud, secretary general, World Meteorological Organisation.
Business
The Kansai Electric Power Company, Incorporated 2027 Q1 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (OTCMKTS:KAEPY) 2026-08-01
Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team
Business
LK Advani’s ‘gift’ makes its way to State Department exhibition hall
“Secretary Colin Powell received this gift from Indian Minister of Home Affairs Lal Krishna Advani,” the State Department said in its remarks written at the bottom of the elephant figurine.
In fact, it is one of the less than 50 gifts among the hundreds of those received by the Secretary of State over the year by foreign dignitaries that have been selected for display at the Exhibit Hall, in the centre of Henry S Truman Building, headquarters of the State Department, official sources said.
Describing the gift, the State Department said, “with royal aplomb, the great man rides in the howdah, or canopied seat, as the mahout or guide in front leads the elephant”.
“This colourful cloisonne figurine harks back to times when elephants were an indispensable part of Indian life – for transportation, fighting battles, protecting land and traversing forests,” it said.
The elephant figurine was made by Neeru Goel, an Indian artist from Bengal, who specialises in enamelware sculptures.
The Department officials, while explaining the reason for the selection of this particular gift from India to be displayed at the exhibition hall, said that elephants are a cultural icon of the country, which over centuries have become a status symbol representing wealth, wisdom, and strength.
Business
Delhi World Book fair: A fair like no other
Thomas Abraham
In Delhi it’s that time of year again when publishers, distributors and retailers are scrambling around frantically getting everything from point-of-sale to stocks right. It’s the World Book fair (WBF), which comes around once every two years sprawling across the giant halls of Pragati Maidan. This is the fair’s 20th edition, and although there are look-alikes all over the country, this one is undoubtedly the mother-of-them all.
In the 1980s and the ’90s, the Kolkata Book fair was the fair to go. But with the move from the maidan, apart from other venue and organisational problems, Kolkata has had to give up its title. Today the Delhi WBF is a mammoth affair, and has gone beyond just being a sort of retail exhibition.
Actually, no book fair in India would really qualify to be a ‘trade fair’ like Frankfurt or London, where business and rights deals are a norm. But like the Jaipur Literary Fest, what we lack in focus, or ‘order and method’, we make up for in sheer numbers.
The WBF is a giant carnival. The last edition had over 800,000 visitors, and the organizers are wondering whether this year the million mark will be touched, given that the Pragati Maidan now has direct metro connectivity and that admission is free. Certainly the exhibitors have gone up since last time to about 1,300. That’s still, of course, less than a tenth of the total number of publishers in the country, as estimated by the various federations who put the count at being well over 15,000.
Month of March
This year, for the first time, the dates of the WBF moved from the traditional January end to early February period to a whole month down the line. This has met with some consternation as many publishers felt that it was leaving it too late for library budgets, and many schools would have exams on, and that might affect the turnout a bit. The jury is out on that one – the verdict will be out on the 4th of March when it all gets over.
So what are the business stats from the fair? Herein lies the rub – there are none. Ironically, for an industry that is seeing technological change at a pace like never before, and typically of an industry still coming to grips with management information, there is no reliable data available apart from guesstimates.
The National Book Trust (NBT) – the fair organizers – blames it on traditional publisher mindsets and the archaic notion of ‘business secrets’ where exhibitors don’t divulge figures. But even just by conservative extrapolation, assuming a Rs 2.5 lakh average turnover per participant (incidentally, the big ones top Rs 20 crore) one is looking at a fair turnover of over Rs 30 crore in cash sales, which is more than three times the business done from all of the leading bookstores all over India in any given week. Trade buying, rights deals, subscription sales, print contracts, and other ‘collateral business’ are on top of this.
Trade & Rights
The WBF – indeed the industry – needs to take this to the next level with a dedicated two days for ‘trade and rights’. Years ago, the first two hours of the fair every day used to be designated trade hours where librarians and stockists could browse uninterrupted, a practice since discontinued. But if the 9-day fair could be shortened to seven days for consumers with two days as business days, India might yet see the fillip it needs in its rights business, as local-to-international rights networks build.
India has a large contingent going to Frankfurt but bulk of these is either English publishers-distributors, visiting principals or remainder merchants buying surplus stock. The size of the Indian rights pavilion is testament to the fact that our share of the rights pie is negligible.
When were the last time you heard of an Indian work in translation break out through a rights purchase the way Wolf-Totem was snapped up from Chinese or The Devotion of Suspect-X from the Japanese? It’s only if we build a rights module here within the WBF, that one can gradually work up (yes it will take years) to exploiting the rights potential from Indian languages in translation.
So what purpose does the fair serve? With the surge in online bookstores, does it still have any relevance? I believe it still has huge relevance. Quite simply it is at its most fundamental, the only real direct interface publishers have with their end readers. This is the only time you can actually put the range you want up there, and watch readers as they browse.
For most publishers, the long tedious day playing floor assistant and traffic cop rolled into one has its reward in watching that die-hard fan chasing that obscure book you thought would never sell. The ecstasy of finding that long lost book, the agony of seeing something priced beyond one’s budget, the amazement at seeing a bargain or combo offer…it’s all there every day, hour on hour. For readers, this is the one time you’ll get to see, touch, browse lists and full range as you can never anywhere else.
Online has its convenience, but by and large you need to know what book you want, notwithstanding the cross recommendations the better sites have. This is where a reader can experience that joy of discovery-where s/he will see full series, obscure imprints, rare titles.
Then there are the bargains. Fair rules make it impossible to deep discount but bargain tables with ‘fair prices’ and combination offers abound. What we have over the nine days of the fair is in essence the world’s largest bookstore-over a million square feet of books to choose from-in every Indian language, a lot of foreign ones, and of course English.
(The author is Managing Director, Hachette India)
Business
Schaeffler Cuts Sales Outlook Over Lower Market Expectations
Schaeffler shares dropped sharply after the auto supplier slashed its sales expectations for the medium term amid a darkening backdrop for the industry.
The German company, supplier to major automakers like BMW, Volkswagen and Ford, now expects sales for 2028 of between 24 billion and 26 billion euros ($27.7 billion-$29.98 billion), down from previous guidance of 27 billion to 29 billion euros, it said Friday.
Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
Business
Jersey Mike’s IPO: Stock Slides in Market Debut
Jersey Mike’s Subs is a sandwich chain that professes to make “A Sub Above.” Hot, cold. Meats and cheese are sliced in front of customers. And regulars know “Mike’s Way” (onions, tomatoes, lettuce, oregano, and salt) and “The Juice” (an olive oil blend and red wine vinegar). But despite its popularity with consumers, investors weren’t taking a bite of the stock in its first day of trading.
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