Bitcoin may have already erased half of its market cap, but veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin says the asset still has further to fall before hitting rock bottom.

“We still have more pain to go,” Terpin tells Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show. Terpin believes that Bitcoin will ultimately fall “66%” from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. “I think that brings us down into the 40s, and I think that’s about where we’re gonna go,” Terpin says. 

To be precise, a 66% drop from the ATH would see Bitcoin changing hands for $43,500, a price the asset has not seen since early February 2024. The 68-year-old investor, often referred to as the “Godfather of Crypto,” has seen Bitcoin plunge enough times to know what a true bottom feels like. 

The ‘defining hallmarks’ of a Bitcoin bottom

Terpin doesn’t think markets have seen true capitulation yet. “One of the defining hallmarks of the bottom is that it doesn’t pop back,” Terpin says.

Michael Terpin spoke to Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show. Source: Cointelegraph

Terpin points out that greed is invariably why most traders fail to time market cycles correctly. He points to Bitcoin’s previous cycle top in November 2021, when the asset reached around $69,000 before entering an extended consolidation period. “You had quite a bit of time to get out over $60,000. But then everybody thought it was going to $100,000,” Terpin says, “remember the laser eyes?”

Terpin wasn’t confident back then that Bitcoin would reach $100,000. “I thought there was a possibility it could go to a hundred, but I thought the sweet spot was going to be eighty-five. And it obviously underperformed that because of all the bad macro,” Terpin says.

“We’ve had two cycles in a row now with bad macro. And you would have expected good macro from Trump, but the tariffs, and some of the other things that allowed a lot of manipulation,” Terpin says.

Bitcoin ultimately reached $100,000 in December 2024, just a month after Donald Trump won the US presidential election.

Terpin worked with Ethereum in its early stages

Terpin was an early investor in the crypto industry and is the founder and CEO of blockchain advisory firm Transform Ventures. 

Through his company, he worked with several projects during their early development stages that went on to become major names in the industry, including Ethereum, Tether, and WAX. He was also an advisor to Mastercoin, the world’s first initial coin offering (ICO) in 2013. It later became known as Omni Layer.

Terpin claims he was the first crypto investor to relocate to Puerto Rico, which is known for its crypto-friendly tax policies. Since moving, he has also invested in and helped fund several startups based on the island. 

Michael Terpin says four-year cycle is not over

He is convinced that Bitcoin is still following its traditional four-year cycle, despite the industry debate in 2025 that institutional adoption and the launch of spot ETFs may have changed the market’s usual boom-and-bust pattern.

Bitcoin is up 1.67% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

“I think we’re still following the halvings. This whole argument that, you know, we’re only going up from here because institutions don’t sell is garbage, right? Institutions absolutely sell.”

Terpin is also cautious about companies built around Bitcoin exposure, including Strategy and its executive chairman Michael Saylor’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Buying Strategy stock or Bitcoin?

While acknowledging Saylor’s success, Terpin says investors should understand the risks of investing in a corporate structure rather than owning the underlying asset.

“I mean historically, you’ve done better if you buy Strategy at the bottom and then sell it at the top than if you buy the Bitcoin,” Terpin says. “Whether he’s [Michael Saylor] able to keep that going, and you know, he avoided being wrecked in 2022 when he was actually underwater with his Bitcoin.” But Terpin would personally “rather bet on Bitcoin than a single company.”

And indeed, investors looking for a low maintenance approach should also bet on Bitcoin rather than chasing altcoins, which require far more active management.

“You only have to look at your portfolio like a couple times during the four-year cycle,” Terpin says.

“When we’re getting near the bottom, see if it’s time to buy. And when we’re getting near the top, see when it’s time to sell. And the rest of the time you can just be on the golf course. Whereas with altcoins, you gotta be, you gotta be on it,” Terpin says.

What’s the way forward?

Key takeaways

• AAVE is holding above its 50-day EMA at $90.80 as its near-term recovery continues.
• Deposits in Aave V3 on Monad increased by more than $500 million over the past month.
• Aave V4 deposits reached a record high above $350 million.

Aave (AAVE) is extending its mild recovery on Tuesday, trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $90.80.

The recovery comes amid increased adoption of Aave’s lending protocols. Aave V3’s deployment on the Monad Layer 1 blockchain attracted more than $500 million in deposits over the past month, alongside more than $215 million in active loans.

Despite the rise in protocol activity, weak derivatives data and bearish momentum indicators continue to cloud AAVE’s price outlook.

Aave V4 deposits reach record high

Deposits in Aave V4 have surpassed $350 million, establishing a new record after increasing by more than $100 million over the past 30 days.

The growth suggests rising adoption and may be partly driven by an attractive USDC borrowing offer. Holders of cbBTC, WBTC, WETH and wstETH can reportedly access a borrowing rate of negative 0.2%.

The increase in deposits across Aave V3 on Monad and Aave V4 highlights growing use of the protocol, even as demand for the AAVE token remains subdued among retail traders.

AAVE is losing momentum in the derivatives market despite the growth in protocol deposits.

Futures open interest declined by more than 6% over the previous 24 hours to $302.15 million, according to CoinGlass. The drop reflects a contraction in the value of outstanding futures contracts and suggests traders are reducing their exposure.

AAVE’s funding rate also fell below zero to negative 0.0046%. Negative funding indicates a bearish tilt, with short-position holders paying traders holding long positions.

Meanwhile, the 24-hour long-to-short ratio declined to 0.9372, showing that active short positions outnumber longs and reinforcing the cautious market outlook.

AAVE technical outlook: Could the price fall to $70?

AAVE is hovering above $90 at the time of writing on Tuesday, maintaining a mildly constructive near-term position above its 50-day EMA at $90.80.

However, the token remains well below its 200-day EMA at $112.75, suggesting that its broader recovery potential remains limited.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator continues to decline below its signal line, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 49 and is trending lower while AAVE’s price forms a modest upward trend. This bearish divergence suggests that buying momentum is weakening despite the recent price recovery.

The 50-day EMA at $90.80 is the key immediate support level. A decisive daily close below this moving average could accelerate selling pressure and trigger a roughly 20% decline toward the June 18 low of $70.65.

The psychological $100 level represents AAVE’s first major resistance. This area sits close to the May 10 high of $103.51, creating a broader resistance zone between $100 and $103.51.

A sustained break above this region would strengthen the bullish case and could allow AAVE to target the 200-day EMA at $112.75.

Former FBI supervisory agent Patrick Steven Yaroch was charged with using internal systems to obtain credentials for cryptocurrency wallets linked to an adversarial country, which he used to transfer funds to his own crypto wallets.

Yaroch admitted to 10 unauthorized transfers between late 2024 and early 2025 that involved an estimated total of $1 million in digital assets, some of which he deposited into Suilend to earn yield, according to a Saturday US Federal court filing.

After self-reporting the incident, Yaroch was placed on administrative leave last Wednesday, terminated and then arrested on Friday. Agents retrieved devices, seed phrases and a Trezor wallet from his Virginia residence to access his accounts on Suilend and crypto exchange Kraken. With his cooperation, they transferred roughly $925,000 in funds to government-controlled wallets.

In May, Yaroch used ChatGPT for advice.

“If I had a million dollars, how would you suggest investing it/spending it to maximize profit and return,” he wrote in the AI prompt, according to the court filing. ChatGPT suggested “building a slower-living vineyard/agricultural lifestyle in places like Cilento or Portugal’s Dão region.”

Yaroch is the latest case of crypto theft involving a federal agent. In 2015, former DEA special agent Carl M. Force diverted about $700,000 in Bitcoin before pleading guilty and being sentenced to six and a half years in prison.

Former US Secret Service special agent Shaun W. Bridges stole about $350,000 in BTC back in 2015 before pleading guilty and facing a sentence of six years in prison. Both cases were tied to the investigation into dark net marketplace Silk Road.

Magazine: Inside the ‘fake police raid’ that forced a $1M Bitcoin transfer

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Bitcoin has found itself at the center of a new wave of quantum-computing anxiety after Jim Cramer said he plans to sell his holdings. Speaking on a Friday episode of CNBC’s “Mad Money,” the former hedge fund manager pointed to remarks made the day before by IBM CEO Arvind Krishna, who suggested investors should treat quantum risk as something to be “paranoid” about within the next few years.

Cramer’s comments arrive as market conditions also appear to be softening. While Bitcoin traded above $63,500 at the time of the report—up 1.7% on Tuesday—it remained down roughly 27% year-to-date, according to TradingView data. At the same time, blockchain and exchange liquidity indicators cited in the report pointed to reduced activity and increased selling behavior among large holders.

Key takeaways

• Jim Cramer said he plans to sell all his Bitcoin, citing concerns about quantum computing risks raised by IBM CEO Arvind Krishna.
• Blockchain analytics referenced by Lookonchain show at least one large Bitcoin wallet moved roughly 16,400 BTC after a period of inactivity.
• Crypto liquidity signals cited from Kaiko data suggest spot trading activity on leading exchanges fell to about $15 billion last week—lowest levels of 2026 in the referenced dataset.
• Industry views remain split on when practical quantum threats to Bitcoin could materialize, with timelines ranging from “decades” to “3–5 years.”

Cramer turns quantum fears into a concrete portfolio decision

In his Friday “Mad Money” segment, Cramer said: “I’m going to sell mine [Bitcoin],” directly tying his decision to quantum computing concerns. The impetus was an earlier conversation with IBM CEO Arvind Krishna, who told Cramer to be “paranoid” about the potential threat quantum computing poses to cryptocurrencies over the next three to four years.

The significance for investors is less about whether Cramer personally controls market outcomes and more about how mainstream commentary can sharpen attention on long-term security assumptions. Quantum computing is widely discussed in crypto circles because it could, in theory, undermine certain cryptographic protections if the necessary computational capability becomes feasible.

Still, not all investors interpret quantum talk the same way. The report notes that some market participants leaned into the “inverse Cramer” meme—an investment philosophy that effectively bets against Cramer’s calls—suggesting that certain traders may view Cramer’s bearish stance as a contrarian signal rather than a risk indicator.

Large-holder activity surfaces as exchange liquidity cools

Separate from Cramer’s remarks, the report highlights whale wallet movement alongside weakening trading activity. According to blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, a whale wallet labeled bc1qpt transferred its entire Bitcoin holdings of 16,400 BTC—worth about $1 billion—into a new address after seven months of inactivity.

Lookonchain’s report of the transfer was paired with a liquidity reference from crypto intelligence platform Kaiko, as shared by The Kobeissi Letter. The cited metric claims that daily cryptocurrency trading activity across the leading 44 spot exchanges fell to about $15 billion last week, described as the lowest level of 2026 in that dataset.

In a Tuesday X post, The Kobeissi Letter characterized the move as part of a broader liquidity contraction, stating it represented a roughly 70% decline from January peak levels and that “crypto market liquidity is drying up.”

For traders, the pairing matters: a wallet moving substantial funds after a long idle period can reflect many possibilities—risk management, restructuring, or trading plans—but when it coincides with lower liquidity, it can heighten sensitivity to price moves. Liquidity tends to influence how easily large orders can be absorbed without significant slippage.

Quantum timelines remain contested—what “risk” actually means

While Cramer focused on a near-term window (three to four years, based on Krishna’s remarks), the report underscores that the broader industry is not aligned on when quantum capabilities could become practically relevant for Bitcoin.

In November 2025, Blockstream CEO Adam Back reportedly said Bitcoin faces no meaningful quantum threat for at least the next 20 to 40 years. That perspective suggests a long runway for preparation, implying that immediate panic is likely unwarranted.

By contrast, the report cites an April report from Bernstein that argues Bitcoin could have roughly three to five years to prepare for a post-quantum security upgrade. That timeline compresses the decision window for developers and infrastructure operators and would support the idea that planning should not be deferred.

Adding another layer, the report includes an assessment from Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang, who told Cointelegraph that Back’s view is “more accurate and measured,” and that practical quantum threats capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography remain highly unlikely within the next decade.

What remains uncertain across all viewpoints is the translation from “theoretical vulnerability” to “real-world break.” Even when the cryptographic risk is discussed in terms of quantum computing, the market relevance depends on when systems capable of executing the necessary computations will be available, stable, and accessible at a scale that meaningfully threatens the security assumptions behind Bitcoin.

Why this story matters beyond headlines

Even if the exact timeline is disputed, the combination of high-profile mainstream comments and ongoing technical debate may increase investor attention on how Bitcoin and the wider ecosystem plan for a post-quantum world. The report references earlier coverage about Bitcoin’s quantum upgrade path and notes that discussions in the sector have already moved toward considering upgrade mechanisms, including what changes could be made and what would not.

For market participants, the immediate takeaway is twofold. First, quantum talk can influence sentiment even when implementation details are years away, so traders may watch for whether additional infrastructure or policy discussion emerges. Second, the liquidity backdrop described in the report suggests that even routine flows—like large wallet moves—could be more noticeable if trading depth continues to decline.

Going forward, investors should watch for updates that connect the debate to concrete milestones: technical proposals and timelines for post-quantum readiness, as well as whether exchange liquidity stabilizes or continues to drift lower alongside large-holder activity.

New data shows individual investors still hold the majority of Bitcoin supply, outpacing institutions, corporations, funds, and government wallets.

The past few years have been filled with talk about how institutions have swallowed up the Bitcoin supply. Yet data shows that an overwhelming amount is still held by individuals.

Surprisingly, new data has shown that individuals still retain the most Bitcoin by market share. They hold significantly more than businesses, funds, and ETFS, and even Satoshi-era wallets. Over the past few years, there has been much speculation about the buy-and-hold tactics of corporations and institutions. Yet it may be individuals who are choosing to cling to their crypto.  

Bitcoin’s current market segmentation

With the global geopolitical situation in turmoil, people have been flocking away from risk assets like cryptocurrency in droves. At the time of writing, Bitcoin price stands at $63,730. In the past five days, it has moved within a margin between $60,000 and $65,000, with little sign of breaching the upward curve. For many, this shows that people are not buying, but also not selling, creating stagnation. Yet it is those who hold cryptocurrencies that throw up the most surprises.

A recent study taken from public wallet data has shown that individuals hold 66% of the Bitcoin supply. Mapping wallets that are known to interact with exchanges, custodians, and large holders, it painted a picture of marginal institutional and corporate holdings. In contrast, only 7.8% was given over to businesses, with 7.2% in funds and ETFS. Satoshi-era wallets had 4.6%, while governments held only 2.1%.

Together, the entire institutional investment sector, incorporating businesses and trading bodies, only holds 15% of the supply. Accounting for the remainder, only 4.5% of Bitcoin is left to be mined. An estimated 7.7% of the remainder has been lost. That means 19% spans the other categories, with the rest, roughly two-thirds, held by private individuals.

The social media paradox

This also dispels a recent theory that a lack of social media chatter regarding Bitcoin and Ethereum has been driven by institutional adoption. In July, data was published that showed mentions of the two terms were at their lowest levels in two months on the platform X. Bitcoin mentions had dropped to around 130,000, while Ethereum had fallen to 40,000 per week.

Reports on the data highlighted this as a shift to institutional buying. In particular, many highlighted it as a regression to a time back in 2020, before the institutional era emerged. Yet the new data suggest that there may be other reasons at play, especially as institutions do not hold the amount that people believed.

Firstly, it could be that X is just losing users. This is a trend that has been ongoing, with 33 million users leaving between January 2024 and 2025. These people may have drifted to other places to discuss cryptocurrency. It could be on Reddit, or it could be on private messaging apps like Telegram.

It could also be that people are just going elsewhere for their information. With crypto more widely known about, people are more savvy. Regulatory announcements and the inflows and outflows of ETF products all provide better benchmarks than a speculator on X.

Lastly, crypto may not be as new and exciting as it once was. It has given way to talks about tokenization, and even AI has grabbed many of the headlines that it once promised as a harbinger of a brave new world. As it is no longer the coolest, newest cat in town, less is being spoken about it. By no means does this mean people have lost interest, but it simply signals that people are now accepting it.

How should this impact trading?

During periods of volatility, retail investors are often prone to more emotional trading. They can sell and buy fast, as opposed to companies that have to make long-term decisions, signed off by many people. This has mainly been the reason given for Bitcoin’s current stagnation.

Yet it seems that the opposite is true and that retail investors are actually building resilience. HODL is the sector name for “Hold on for dear life,” which means you keep hold of Bitcoin until it grows exponentially in value. Many investors have held on through tumultuous market cycles. In fact, whales who are private buyers who hold large amounts can often change market courses if they begin to buy up or even dump their cryptocurrency. This suggests that they still do play a huge part in the direction prices can take.

What this does show is that despite what media outlets and those in the crypto industry are saying, the field is still extremely decentralized. For all the hype of institutional adoption and government backing, Bitcoin, particularly, is still held by individuals. Those wanting to see how this changes in the near future must watch inflows and outflows to ETF products, as well as changes to government legislation, not just in the US but beyond. 

Bitcoin miners with operations in Texas are not expected to be impacted by a moratorium on approval of data center projects connected to the state’s grid operator ordered by Governor Greg Abbott, Bernstein analysts said Tuesday.

Abbott on Monday directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to audit all data centers seeking to connect to the state’s power grid. The duration of the audit was not specified and comes amid increasing public backlash to the pace of data center build-out across the state, The Texas Tribune reported.

Bernstein analysts told clients on Tuesday that as most of the Bitcoin (BTC) miners operating in Texas are under contract for approved electric capacity, those operations are unlikely to be impacted by the moratorium.

“However, we believe, this audit throttles speculative data center pipeline and makes genuine sites with development history more valuable,” the research team led by Gautam Chhugani said in their note. “Bitcoin mining sites are favorably placed with the longest gestation, self-funding infra and local community management,” they said.

They said that the local operations of Cipher Digital (CIFR), Core Scientific (CORZ) and CleanSpark (CLSK) could be the miners most exposed to future public opposition to data center expansion, particularly during ERCOT’s approval process to convert their pipeline assets into grid-connected power capacity.

“We believe with increasing political opposition to new data center projects and fresh capacity being throttled by moratoriums/state directives, the approved MWs become more valuable,” they said, highlighting the Texas mining operations of IREN (IREN), which is fully ERCOT grid approved, as are the operations of Riot Platforms (RIOT).

CIFR shares were down more than 7% in Tuesday’s premarket trading, according to Yahoo Finance data. The miner reported second-quarter results earlier Tuesday, posting a loss of $0.65 per diluted share, widening from last year’s loss of $0.12 per diluted share.

Related: Bitcoin may find bear market bottom in August: 10x Research

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Migration is rarely the result of a single heat wave. It is the culmination of years of mounting losses that steadily erode income, health, and hope.

Consider Santuben Kantibhai, a farmer from Gujarat, India. Over the past two years, her family has endured a cascade of climate and economic shocks. A severe heatwave destroyed much of their standing crop, causing her family’s income to plummet. At the same time, her father—a co-earner who relied on farm labor and daily wage work—developed cataracts that gradually robbed him of his eyesight, making it increasingly difficult for him to help their family earn a living. When another heatwave struck in 2025, crop yields fell again just as his condition required surgery. For Santuben, the question is not whether heat is becoming more dangerous; she already knows it is. It is how many more failed harvests and lost workdays can her family absorb before staying becomes impossible.