Crypto World
Bitcoin “capitulation basket” hits longest streak since FTX, says Glassnode
Bitcoin’s on-chain “capitulation” phase has stretched to its longest stretch since the aftermath of the FTX collapse, according to Glassnode. In a Monday update, the firm pointed to its composite cycle-tracking framework showing that a large share of Bitcoin price-related indicators has remained in its most defensive, low-conviction stage through 2026.
The key nuance is that, while conditions resemble late-cycle stress, Glassnode’s heatmap readings have not yet fully matched the deepest “floor” signatures that appeared during earlier bear-market bottoms. At the same time, Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse report suggested that on-chain activity has strengthened—an important counterpoint for investors weighing whether capitulation is finally giving way to stabilization.
Key takeaways
- Glassnode’s “Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap” shows 45 tracked BTC price metrics have been in the longest capitulation phase since late 2022’s FTX fallout.
- Rafael Schultze-Kraft said the current period sits in its coldest stretch since FTX, but still not at the unanimous deep-blue level that historically marked cycle floors.
- The heatmap uses a basket of 45 indicators, heavily incorporating investor profitability across short-term (STH) and long-term (LTH) holders.
- Glassnode reported stronger network engagement, including daily active addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volumes moving above upper statistical bands.
Heatmap extends capitulation longer than past cycles
Glassnode’s “Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap,” created by the platform co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft, aggregates data from 45 different Bitcoin price and market-health indicators. In the heatmap, blue shading is associated with capitulation conditions, while red is used to highlight the euphoria typical of late-cycle momentum toward peaks.
The tool flipped from a more euphoric configuration after November 2021 into a majority-blue dominance throughout 2022. That shift coincided with the collapse of FTX, which occurred in late 2022 and aligned with analysts pointing to Bitcoin’s bear-market bottom around $15,600, according to earlier coverage referenced from Cointelegraph.
Schultze-Kraft’s latest read of the heatmap emphasizes both duration and depth. He said the current stage is “its coldest stretch since FTX” and is late in the bear market cycle, but remains “not yet the unanimous deep blue” that had historically indicated a more definitive floor.
For traders and long-term investors, this matters because cycle-position models are often less about predicting a specific day and more about gauging whether market behavior is approaching the “reset” phase that follows widespread distribution and forced risk reduction.
Why profitability and holder behavior shape the signal
Beyond conventional price gauges like market cap, the heatmap places significant weight on the profitability of Bitcoin’s investor base. It divides participants into short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH), reflecting that these cohorts typically react differently during sell-offs and recoveries.
Schultze-Kraft also highlighted an additional complication: some indicators change character as the composition of the investor base ages. One example is dormancy, measured by how many days a unit of BTC spent idle before being moved on-chain. Because dormancy tends to increase as the chain ages, the dormancy signal can differ between cycles—meaning the same threshold may not “mean” the same thing across different bear markets.
That kind of calibration is crucial when interpreting heatmap results. A long capitulation stretch can be read two ways: either distribution is still ongoing, or the market has moved into a prolonged sideways grind where participants are not capitulating in the most extreme fashion yet. Glassnode’s framing—that the readings are colder than prior periods but not at maximum floor conditions—leans toward the second interpretation.
Network activity improves even as capitulation persists
While the cycle heatmap focuses on sentiment and cycle-stage indicators, Glassnode’s Monday Market Pulse report pointed to strengthening on-chain behavior. The firm reported that daily active addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volumes moved above their upper statistical bands, a change it characterized as a “notable increase” in network engagement and economic throughput.
That improvement matters because it suggests a degree of market function is returning even if the broader cycle signal still shows capitulation characteristics. In other words, activity may be shifting from panic-driven flows toward more sustained utilization, which can be an early ingredient of stabilization.
Glassnode also noted that stabilization of capital outflows persisted despite investor reaction to a separate security event: a low-entropy bug exploit in Coldcard hardware wallets. The implication is that even if some participants reacted defensively to the news, the broader on-chain throughput did not collapse further.
Supporting this, CryptoQuant data cited by Cointelegraph compared a rise in on-chain transfers of 1 BTC or less with the pattern seen after the FTX implosion. Specifically, it noted that on July 31 the daily tally reached 39,600 BTC, compared with 39,900 BTC on Nov. 16, 2022. The comparison underlines how transaction behavior can echo prior stress periods, even when the macro timeline differs.
What to watch next as the signal matures
Glassnode’s heatmap suggests Bitcoin is in the coldest stretch since FTX, but not yet in the “unanimous” conditions that previously aligned with a more decisive bottom. Investors should watch whether the heatmap continues deeper into its most extreme blue regime while on-chain activity remains elevated—especially daily activity and transfer volumes—as those combinations would strengthen the case that capitulation is transitioning into a more durable stabilization phase.
Crypto World
Wall Street Meets Web3: BlackRock, Visa, and Mastercard Back Circle’s New Arc Blockchain
USDC stablecoin issuer Circle has announced the founding validator cohort for Arc, its open blockchain network. It is currently in private mainnet with more than 100 ecosystem and institutional builders.
Circle said the network is on track for a public mainnet launch on September 16, 2026.
Behind Circle’s New Blockchain
According to the official post, the founding validator group includes BlackRock, The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), Galaxy, Global Payments, ICE, Mastercard, MoneyGram, SBI Group, Standard Chartered, Sumitomo Corporation and Visa. Circle said the group represents a model in which institutions building on the network also help secure it.
The aim is to create a foundation of trusted and globally distributed operators that can support secure and scalable on-chain financial applications. BlackRock is also expected to deploy BUIDL, the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, on Arc through the network’s native USDC integration.
The setup is intended to let institutional investors subscribe to, redeem, and deploy fund assets within one on-chain environment.
Circle is also working with DTCC to enable the tokenization of assets custodied by The Depository Trust Company on Arc beginning in the second half of 2027. The main objective is to let market participants use third-party applications on the blockchain for stablecoin-native settlement outside DTC against DTC-tokenized assets. DTCC said the integration supports its multi-chain strategy.
DTC-tokenized assets will continue to carry the same protections, rights, and safeguards available to investors holding assets traditionally.
Commenting on the latest development, Mastercard Chief Product Officer Jorn Lambert said,
“As stablecoins and other digital assets move into real-world payments, settlement, and treasury flows, Mastercard is focused on helping customers operate across an increasingly diverse payments ecosystem. Our participation as a founding validator on Arc reflects that commitment — supporting trusted, interoperable infrastructure that can help connect emerging blockchain networks with the broader financial systems businesses rely on every day.”
Arc Product Suite
Arc is also expected to have a range of applications and services available from day one. DeFi protocols and capital allocators including Aave, Aerodrome, FalconX, Galaxy, GSR, Keyrock, Morpho, Nonco, Uniswap and XFX will support borrowing, trading and on-chain capital deployment.
Meanwhile, payment providers Rain, Thunes and Wirex have been tasked with routing stablecoin payment and settlement flows. Binance Wallet, Chainlink, Fireblocks, Kraken, Ledger, MetaMask, Uniswap Labs and Upbit, on the other hand, will enable access to USDC on Arc, custody and cross-chain asset movement.
At launch, Circle plans to introduce a product suite around Arc, which includes tools for common on-chain workflows, AI-powered applications and smart contract development, tokenized real-world asset management and interfaces for developers, users and agents.
The post Wall Street Meets Web3: BlackRock, Visa, and Mastercard Back Circle’s New Arc Blockchain appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
Yellow Card announces $40 million funding round to expand its stablecoin infrastructure
Maurice, a former Pokémon card seller, told CoinDesk in a 2024 podcast interview that he and Justin Poiroux, the firm’s chief technology officer, founded Yellow Card to take on big banks and Swift, the interbank service that processes over 53 million secure messaging instructions a day for nearly 11,500 financial institutions. Swift facilitates trillions of dollars in global bank transactions and said last month it was testing its first blockchain ledger.
Yellow Card, which focuses mostly on emerging markets, will use the new capital to expand Global USD Accounts, its dollar account product for businesses, and add stablecoin and local payment mechanisms in Latin America and Asia-Pacific.
The accounts allow businesses to hold dollars, hold and swap stablecoins, manage treasury operations and collect or disburse local currencies through domestic payment rails in more than 50 countries, Yellow Card said.
Maurice said the company’s flows have historically been split roughly evenly between corporates and large financial institutions using its treasury-management and payments infrastructure. Bank volumes are now growing faster as large institutions adopt the company’s system, he said.
Yellow Card kicked off its operations in Africa, said Maurice, where it built operations across fragmented country-by-country regulatory jurisdictions. The firm said that since its founding in 2016, it has facilitated more than $10 billion in transactions and holds licenses, authorizations or registrations in 22 jurisdictions.
Ukraine hit at least two warehouses belonging to Russia’s e-commerce giant Wildberries in overnight strikes on Monday, adding to a series of drone attacks that have targeted the online retailer.
Ukrainian forces have repeatedly struck warehouses belonging to Russia’s largest online retailer as part of a broader campaign against logistics sites that Kyiv says support Moscow’s military.
Often described as Russia’s “Amazon,” Wildberries operates dozens of warehouses across the country and plays a core role in the Russian consumer economy.
Since July 18, Ukraine has targeted close to 20 of the retailer’s sites, referring to them as military-linked “logistic centers.”
Moscow and Wildberries have denied that the facilities supply the armed forces.
The strikes have drawn attention not only because of their reach inside Russia, but also because of Wildberries’ economic importance, its ties to the country’s financial sector, and the potential impact on ordinary Russian consumers.
”Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck the Wildberries logistics center in Krasny Bor near St. Petersburg. Burning again,” read an update from the Defense of Ukraine on Tuesday. “Russian logistics, dismantled one hub at a time.”
The social media statement was accompanied by a video showcasing a large, white-painted building engulfed in flames.
“Wildberries was used to distribute military and dual-use goods,” read the caption across the footage. “We will continue dismantling the enemy’s logistics.”
https://x.com/DefenceU/status/2084653333068055029
With the Russia-Ukraine war now in its fifth year, Kyiv has shifted its military strategy as it continues to come under heavy bombardment from Moscow. Ukraine has increasingly used long-range drone strikes to target infrastructure and supply networks deep inside Russia. Amid a broader government reshuffle near the end of July, Kyiv gained a new military chief, Mykhailo Drapatyi, who Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has tasked with leading the country’s precise defensive efforts.
With Kyiv vowing to maintain its focus on the retailer’s hubs, here’s what to know about Wildberries, its high-profile founder, and why it’s being targeted.
What is Wildberries—and who founded it?
The online retailer, which hosts third-party sellers, facilitates everything from household goods to air travel, and even has a financial arm, WB Bank.
In May, Wildberries announced a strategic partnership with VTB Bank, a Russian majority state-owned institution.
VTB Bank shares fell around 2.5% on July 28 amid ongoing strikes, according to Reuters.
Days after Ukraine’s July 18 strikes against the Wildberries sites, the European Commission included the WB Bank when E.U. member states adopted its 21st package of sanctions against Russia.
“Wildberries Bank LLC is involved in an economic sector providing a substantial source of revenue to the Government of the Russian Federation, which is responsible for the annexation of Crimea and the destabilisation of Ukraine,” declared the council of the European Union.
Wildberries was founded by Tatyana Kim, formerly Tatyana Bakalchuk, in 2004.
A former English teacher, Kim was 28-years-old and on maternity leave when she launched the initiative, and was later joined by her now ex-husband, Vladislav Bakalchuk.
As Wildberries grew, Kim’s fortune did too. Forbes estimates her net worth at $8.1 billion, making her Russia’s richest woman.
She was the only Russian entry on Forbes’ 2025 list of “The 50 Richest Self-Made Women On Earth.”
“Wildberries has grown from small origins to be one of two major internet marketplaces in Russia [alongside Ozon],” says Charles Hecker, an associate fellow in international security at the Royal United Services Institute think tank. “It’s an enormously prominent company and Kim is an incredibly prominent business person in Russia.”
Why is Ukraine targeting Russia’s ‘Amazon’?
Kyiv insists Wildberries is being used as a key supply chain for the Russian military.
“Ukraine’s official reason behind attacking Wildberries is that Ukraine believes the website is used as a channel for military components,” Hecker tells TIME.
After Wildberries sites were struck on July 18, Zelensky announced that “two major logistics facilities were hit—in the Moscow and Tambov regions” and said “the aggressor [Russia] used them to supply sanctioned components for drone production and navigation equipment.”
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has refuted accusations that Wildberries warehouses are used for Russian army supplies.
Kim has also rejected the allegations. In a July 31 video statement uploaded to Telegram, she argued Kyiv’s drone attacks on sites linked to Wildberries amount to “acts of terrorism” against civilians.
In response to accusations that Wildberries sells dual-use goods, items that can have both civilian and military uses, Kim said the company doesn’t offer anything that is not also available on major global e-commerce platforms such as Amazon or Alibaba.
After previous drone strikes on its facilities, the e-commerce giant issued statements pledging financial support for sellers whose goods were damaged.
The retailer’s ties to the country’s financial sector and the far-reaching economic impact of the strikes is a key factor to consider, experts say.
“Putin said at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that the war would not impact the way Russians lead their lives,” Hecker tells TIME. “But attacking Wildberries impacts the Russian consumer, and this comes on top of inflation, on top of periodic mobile internet outages across Russia.”
While inflation in Russia has climbed down from highs of 9.4% last year, it rose once again to 6% in June—its highest level since January.
Consumers in Russia are also tackling a summer fuel crisis after Ukraine stepped up its drone attacks on oil refineries.
“It’s difficult now for President Putin to say that the war on Ukraine is not impacting the way ordinary Russians live,” Hecker says, reflecting on the economic blows. “Ukraine has discovered how successfully it can penetrate airspace deep into Russian territory, and I think what it’s doing right now is exploiting that capability.”
They’re who the kids are stuck with, though, when a girl’s mangled body is found fastened to a tennis net and their classmates start disappearing. Bret is certain that the handsome new boy in school, Robert Mallory (Homer Gere), is the culprit. But his logic—that Robert must be a killer because he denies having been at the screening of The Shining where Bret first spotted him—is pretty flimsy. For some reason, Bret can’t get his friends to care about the murders. They’re too busy planning homecoming festivities and angling to get on dance-contest TV shows. Maybe their denial can be shrugged off as typical teen self-involvement, but it doesn’t explain why he seems more invested in the case than police and even some parents of the missing.
The Shards is dense with references. To make sense of the show beyond the plot’s generic teenage politicking and serial-killer thrills, you must know that The Shining is a horror story about a writer becoming violently unhinged; that its other Jack Nicholson footnote, Chinatown, is synonymous with systemic evil too entrenched to fight; that the financial disaster that was Michael Cimino’s 1980 feature Heaven’s Gate symbolizes the end of New Hollywood’s auteur-driven ’70s renaissance, leaving the industry to chase youthful faces and shiny trends. (Bret gives a Patrick-Bateman-esque monologue about how music videos are the future of art.) The casting piles new signifiers atop the source material. Gerber is the spookily identical daughter of Cindy Crawford, the ultimate Gen X beauty. Gere shares a square jaw with his father, Richard, whose breakthrough movie, American Gigolo—another tale of sex and murder in L.A., whose writer-director, Paul Schrader, worked with Ellis on The Canyons—was released just in time to be referenced by The Shards’ characters. Richard Gere was married to Crawford in the early ’90s. Gerber and Homer Gere don’t share any parents, but the connection adds a pseudo-incestuous twinge to their characters’ mutual attraction. Dig deeper, and you’ll find that Homer Gere’s mother, the actor Carrie Lowell, was once married to Griffin Dunne, the nephew of Joan Didion, whose work both Ellis and his Shards alter ego idolize.
“If you go in the water and 8 or 24 hours later, your leg hurts and feels hot, go to the doctor right away,” Harwood says.
How to prevent a Vibrio vulnificus infection
To avoid dangerous exposure to Vibrio vulnificus, Harwood recommends that people with open wounds on their body, including fresh tattoos and new piercings, stay away from warm salt and brackish coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, until the skin is healed. Harwood says she personally would even avoid wading in such waters a day or two after shaving her legs in case of micro-tears on the skin. “I’m not even a germophobe or anything,” she says. “I just don’t want to risk any exposure.”
Harwood also offers advice that shellfish-lovers may have a hard time swallowing: “Don’t eat raw oysters in the summer,” she says.
Vibrio vulnificus flourishes when waters are warm. (The bacteria also love the warmth of the human body.) They can also live in colder waters, but their populations shrink under those conditions, Harwood says. Eating raw oysters during cooler months or oysters that have been harvested in colder waters, such as on the western coast of the U.S., could be safer, Harwood says. She also recommends that people wear gloves when shucking oysters to avoid getting cut and risk being exposed to the bacteria.
Crypto World
Cardano (ADA) Grabs Traders’ Attention After a 20% Weekly Increase: Further Pump Incoming?
While the past week hasn’t been too successful for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other well-known cryptocurrencies, Cardano’s ADA defied the ongoing trend by posting a double-digit price increase.
Market observers have shifted their focus toward it, with some projecting that the rally might be just starting.
The Next Potential Targets
ADA has been among the worst-affected digital assets by the prolonged bear market, and in June its price briefly collapsed under $0.14: the lowest level since 2020. Last weekend, though, brought a sudden and long-awaited resurgence, potentially propelled by the return of the whales who purchased more than 240 million tokens in less than a week.
The uptrend continued, and as of press time, Cardano’s native token trades at around $0.193, representing a 20% increase on a seven-day scale. X user JAVON MARKS recently found similarities between the asset’s latest performance and that of 2020-2021, which was followed by a price explosion, which is why they set a target of $2.90.
Sssebi and CW also weighed in. The former noted that ADA is close to crossing the 20-week Moving Average after being heavily oversold, reminding that historically this type of setup has triggered a “big pump.” The latter noticed that ADA is approaching a major resistance line at $0.2305, which, if broken successfully, could mark the end of its long downtrend.
The Traders are Back
Earlier this week, the analytics platform Santiment revealed that ADA’s rally comes at a moment when the number of non-empty Cardano wallets is actually declining. According to the firm, this suggests the price has recovered while many “sidelined” holders have yet to re-enter the ecosystem.
“Rising price with falling holders can mean stronger buyers are absorbing supply, and retail confidence has not fully followed the move yet,” it added.
In contrast, just a few hours ago Martinez disclosed that trader interest in ADA has increased substantially. He said futures volume has surged by 380% from $150 million to $650 million in a single week, a jump that typically signals a sharp rise in market participation and that could make the asset more volatile in the short term.
The post Cardano (ADA) Grabs Traders’ Attention After a 20% Weekly Increase: Further Pump Incoming? appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
Eliza Labs' Shaw Walters Says ai16z Token Is 'Dead' After Settling Burwick Law Class Action
Eliza Labs founder Shaw Walters said the ai16z token is "dead. Completely." and that the foundation behind it is winding down, after his side settled a class action brought by Burwick Law by handing over "the rest of the treasury and all the money we had." "Burwick sued us and we settled with a… Read the full story at The Defiant
The exploit, which researchers say stemmed from a flaw in the wallet’s firmware, has resulted in at least 1,816 bitcoin, worth about $114 million, being drained from more than 5,200 addresses since July 30, underscoring the risks even self-custodied assets face when wallet security is compromised.
FRNT Financial echoed that view, saying the exploit exposed a key tradeoff in self-custody. While many bitcoin holders prefer to control their own assets, they still place their trust in the hardware and software used to generate private keys.
“The reaction within the BTC community to the exploit was one of heartbreak,” FRNT wrote in a Wednesday report, noting many affected users had followed long-standing best practices around self-custody.
The firm compared the incident to the 2023 “Milk Sad” exploit, in which flawed key generation led to the theft of roughly $900,000 in digital assets. Rather than undermining self-custody altogether, FRNT said it expects the latest breach to spur wallet providers to strengthen their products as users demand greater security assurances.
For investors unwilling to accept the operational risks of managing private keys, the growing availability of spot bitcoin ETFs provides an increasingly attractive alternative, FRNT said.
Read more: Coldcard hack sparks a self-custody security overhaul: Cory Klippsten
Thousands of victims of the Coldcard bitcoin wallet hack have been approached to join a legal action against the device’s maker by an FTX claims broker who reportedly stole $1.9 million from another corporate receivership.
According to Galaxy Research, 1,596 BTC has been stolen from roughly 7,300 Coldcard addresses since July 30. That confirmed haul already exceeds $100 million, and a suspected fourth wave of hacks could push it past $130 million.
Thomas Braziel, who now runs distressed claims company 117 Partners, posted an appeal to Coldcard victims on social media which read, “If you were affected by the COLDCARD firmware vulnerability and lost bitcoin, please DM me.”
Two days later, he published a legal update, talking up plans for a legal action with 10-30 claimants. He also steered victims into a Telegram channel to keep communications private.
Read more: 15 attackers now draining vulnerable Coldcard wallets, report
No knight in shining armor for Coldcard victims
In 2016, the Delaware Court of Chancery appointed Braziel receiver of Fund.com after the court had entered a default judgment against that company.
The order tasked Braziel with liquidating Fund.com and distributing proceeds to its investors — a process that would take several years.
By 2024, however, the court determined that “Braziel manufactured alternative versions of the account statements” of Fund.com and “created falsified versions of the company’s bank records.”
The court also concluded that its special magistrate’s report “appropriately compared Braziel’s conduct to the elements of criminal offenses for the purpose of measuring whether Braziel’s actions were sufficiently egregious.”
In that memorandum opinion, a vice chancellor (the name for judges in this Delaware court) removed Braziel as a corporate receiver and ordered him to repay $1,945,063.
Braziel’s own lawyers told the court, “By and large, Braziel accepts the report’s extensive factual and legal findings. He further acknowledges and agrees to reimburse the company for the expense of the special [magistrate’s] investigation.”
Braziel asserted his Fifth Amendment privilege more than 500 times in deposition, though Vice Chancellor J. Travis Laster was careful to add, “Nor has the court purported to convict the receiver of any crimes.”
No prosecutor or securities regulator charged him with any crime, and Braziel paid his restitution.
There are many other lawyers and bankruptcy professionals trying to solicit Coldcard victims. Protos has already warned victims about unsolicited legal outreach.
Coldcard manufacturer Coinkite is a bootstrapped Toronto company and its terms of sale for hardware wallets route disputes into arbitration under Ontario’s Arbitration Act of 1991 — a structural problem for proposed lawsuits.
Attorney Ariel Givner observed on August 2 that those terms “heavily disclaim warranties, limit liability to the device purchase price, and exclude consequential damages” for victims of Coldcard hackers.
Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.
Grok AI predicts a bottom is already in for Bitcoin, and this price prediction puts the number right up front. From today’s roughly $64,200, the bull case runs to $120,000 to $150,000 or higher by the end of 2026.
The argument starts with supply mechanics rather than sentiment. The 2024 halving locked daily issuance at approximately 450 BTC, while ETFs, corporate treasuries led by Strategy and its peers still accumulating, pensions, and wealth platforms all create persistent demand that routinely outpaces new supply.
Long term holders now control more than 80% of circulating coins, and exchange inventories keep shrinking, meaning less Bitcoin is available to sell at any given moment. Grok stacks several catalysts specifically for the second half of the year.
The CLARITY Act or equivalent market structure legislation would unlock broader institutional and pension access while cementing Bitcoin’s commodity status. A Fed pivot toward rate cuts or general liquidity easing would reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non yielding asset like Bitcoin.
Formalization of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, plus copycat sovereign buying from other nations, adds a geopolitical dimension. Continued BlackRock and Fidelity led ETF inflows reversing this year’s outflows, expanding access through 401k and RIA model portfolios, and broader dollar debasement tailwinds round out the list.
Grok points to historical post halving windows combined with what it calls this new institutional era as support for a retest of the $126,000 October 2025 all time high and a push into the $120,000 to $150,000 zone, citing prior calls from Bernstein and Standard Chartered, JPMorgan’s fair value frameworks, and upside scenarios from VanEck and Citigroup.
Stretch targets go higher if multiple catalysts fire at once, though the bear case remains real. Prolonged high rates, stalled regulation, or renewed ETF outflows could keep price grinding between $50,000 and $75,000 into year end instead.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Momentum Has Been Pinned To The Same Number For Ten Months
Bitcoin topped near $128,000 in October 2025, and the decline that followed was sharp, a near vertical drop through late January that took price from above $92,000 down to $60,000 in a matter of weeks. What came after was a slow, uneven recovery, a climb back to $82,000 by May, then a second sharp flush in June that dragged price down to retest that same $60,000 floor.
Price closed today at $64,025, up 0.89%, in a session ranging between $63,270 and $64,360. Support sits at $60,000, the level defended in both February and June, then $52,000 below that if the floor finally gives way.
Resistance stacks first at $68,000, then $73,000, then the far heavier ceiling near $82,000 where the May rally already failed once. The signal line reads 49.91 against 50.38, a gap so thin it barely qualifies as one.
That is the real story on this chart. For ten months, momentum has hovered within a few points of the neutral 50 line, never building the kind of sustained push above 60 that usually accompanies a real trend change.
That is not the signature of a market that has already turned. It is the signature of one still deciding, and Grok’s case for $120,000 needs Bitcoin to clear $82,000, a level this chart has not touched since May, before any of it becomes more than a thesis.
You Were Right About Bitcoin. It Just Didn’t Pay.
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Your opinion was about a single question. Your position is exposed to all of them at once.
That’s what Kalshi is. A CFTC-regulated exchange where the prices are set by traders taking real positions, which is why the odds tend to move before the headlines do.
It isn’t free money. A contract that resolves against you goes to zero, and being directionally right on a slow timeline still loses if the contract expires first. Event trading pays for precision about timing, not just direction.
But the analysis above was free. What you do with it doesn’t have to be.
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The post Elon Musk Grok AI Just Predicts the Bottom for Bitcoin, Here’s the Number appeared first on Cryptonews.
Wall Street Meets Web3: BlackRock, Visa, and Mastercard Back Circle’s New Arc Blockchain
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