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Dollar drifts higher as traders eye Iran talks ahead of US jobs data

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Dollar drifts higher as traders eye Iran talks ahead of US jobs data
The dollar drifted higher against the yen and euro on Friday, building on ​the previous day’s gains as doubts ​about an Iran peace deal buffed the U.S. currency’s appeal as a ​haven.

The greenback also drew support from higher Treasury yields after a Financial Times report citing sources close to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh pointed to the potential for a September interest rate hike, depending on incoming data.

The monthly U.S. payrolls ‌report, due ⁠later on ⁠Friday, could provide more clues on the Fed’s rate path.

The dollar rose slightly to 158.505 yen in the Asian morning, after ​gaining 0.4% on Thursday, putting it on course to rise around 0.7% this week as it recovered from a ​bout of joint Japan-U.S. intervention that sent the U.S. currency tumbling from near a four-decade high above 163 yen on Thursday to a 13-week low of 155.20 on Monday.

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Against the euro, the greenback ​edged up to $1.1521 after strengthening about 0.3% in the prior session.


Tensions ⁠continued to ‌play out in the Gulf after Reuters reported a proposed deal between Iran ​and Oman to ​help end the U.S.-Iran conflict could give Tehran control over inbound traffic through ⁠the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. did not immediately comment on the ​proposal. President Donald Trump has said that a deal to reopen the ​strait was imminent, but U.S. officials have repeatedly insisted that they would never agree to Iranian control of access to the world’s most important trade route for energy supplies.Brent crude rose a little over a dollar on Friday to trade at $83.55 per barrel, after settling up more than $3 in the previous session.

The heightening inflation risks weighed on Treasuries, sending yields higher.

“USD was supported by higher oil ‌prices (following) news that a deal between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the strait is further away than hoped,” said Kristina Clifton, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of ​Australia.

She and ​other analysts also pointed to ⁠the FT report saying Warsh was open to a September hike if inflation data is strong, although Clifton added, “We expect the Fed to wait until December before starting a modest tightening cycle.”

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A divided U.S. ​central bank left rates unchanged last month, but Warsh said he was committed to bringing inflation down.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls are forecast to have risen by 80,000 last month after an increase of 57,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.

Against sterling, the dollar strengthened slightly to $1.3449.

The Australian dollar weakened a touch to $0.7029 and the kiwi dollar edged down to $0.5866.

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MercadoLibre Shares Fall 7% Despite Record $10.2 Billion Revenue as Profit Margins Narrow Again

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MercadoLibre Shares Fall 7% Despite Record $10.2 Billion Revenue as

Shares of MercadoLibre fell Thursday, trading down 6.57%, or $126.29, to $1,796.28, extending a decline that began after the Latin American e-commerce and fintech giant reported second-quarter results showing record revenue that nonetheless failed to prevent a third consecutive quarterly decline in net income.

The stock’s slide began late Wednesday, when shares initially fell 7.23% in post-market trading to $1,783.49 following the release of the company’s earnings report, down from Wednesday’s regular-session closing price of $1,922.57. The decline reflected a familiar pattern for MercadoLibre this year: strong top-line growth overshadowed by investor concern over the company’s shrinking profit margins as it continues investing heavily in its commerce, fintech and logistics operations.

Record Revenue, Falling Profit

MercadoLibre reported second-quarter revenue of $10.2 billion, up 50% from the same period a year earlier and roughly $500 million ahead of the $9.7 billion analysts had expected. The quarter marked the first time in the company’s history that quarterly revenue surpassed the $10 billion threshold. Adjusted earnings came in at $9.19 per share, beating the $8.58 analysts had forecast.

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Despite those top-line and per-share beats, net income fell 11% from a year earlier to $466 million, though the figure still came in ahead of the $433 million analysts had expected. Operating income declined 17% to $683 million, even as it exceeded forecasts. The company’s operating margin narrowed to 6.7%, down from 12.2% in the same period a year earlier, a compression of roughly 550 basis points that has become the central point of investor concern surrounding the stock.

A Pattern of Deliberate Margin Compression

Thursday’s reaction extends a trend that has now played out across multiple consecutive quarters, in which MercadoLibre’s rapid revenue growth has been consistently offset by shrinking profitability as the company prioritizes expansion over near-term margin preservation. The company’s leadership has previously indicated that much of the margin decline reflects deliberate strategic choices rather than unexpected cost pressures, including continued investment in free shipping subsidies, an expanding logistics footprint, and the rapid scaling of its credit card and lending business across Latin America.

Higher spending on the company’s core commerce business, ongoing pressure tied to payment acquiring services in Mexico, and continued investment in broader ecosystem expansion were all cited as contributing factors weighing on profitability during the quarter. The company’s net interest margin, a key metric for its fintech operations, did show improvement, rising to 21% from 18% in the first quarter of 2026, supported by stronger performance across its major markets, offering one bright spot within an otherwise mixed profitability picture.

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AI Investments Boosting Productivity

MercadoLibre highlighted continued progress in integrating artificial intelligence across its operations, saying AI tools have enhanced search functionality, fulfillment operations and overall sales productivity. According to the company, technology productivity metrics have increased seven to ten times faster than the pace of employee growth, an efficiency gain executives pointed to as evidence that the company’s technology investments are beginning to yield measurable operational benefits even as overall margins remain under pressure from other parts of the business.

A Year of Volatility

Thursday’s decline adds to what has already been a turbulent year for MercadoLibre’s stock. Shares have fallen sharply at multiple points in 2026, including a roughly 11% to 13% single-day drop following the company’s first-quarter results in early May, when strong revenue growth of 49% was similarly overshadowed by a steep decline in operating income tied to increased shipping subsidies and rising loan-loss provisions connected to the rapid expansion of its credit card business. That first-quarter selloff pushed the stock as much as 37% below its 52-week high of $2,645.22, with the shares experiencing a maximum drawdown of nearly 41% at one point during the year.

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Even prior to this year’s declines, MercadoLibre had already shown a pattern of sharp single-session swings tied to earnings, including a roughly 10% drop following mixed fourth-quarter results reported earlier in the year, when operating margins fell to 10.1% from 13.5% in the prior-year period, driven by similar concerns over heavy spending on logistics, AI expansion and marketing.

Wall Street Remains Broadly Positive

Despite the stock’s repeated post-earnings declines throughout 2026, analyst sentiment toward MercadoLibre has remained largely favorable heading into and following Wednesday’s report. According to FactSet Research Systems, coverage of the stock included 19 buy ratings, one overweight rating and five hold ratings, with no analysts issuing a sell recommendation ahead of the results. Shares had risen roughly 2% in the days leading up to the earnings release, a gain that Wednesday’s after-hours decline more than erased.

Some brokerages had already moved to adjust their outlooks ahead of the report, with the after-market trading price landing just 2.4% above the lowest price target among analysts tracked by FactSet, suggesting that at least part of the market had already positioned for a mixed reaction even before the specific results were released.

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What Investors Are Watching Next

Attention now turns to a series of upcoming macroeconomic events that could further influence sentiment toward MercadoLibre, given the company’s heavy exposure to economic conditions across Latin America. Mexico’s central bank is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision on Aug. 6, a development that could directly affect consumer spending and credit demand in one of MercadoLibre’s key markets. U.S. inflation data due Aug. 12 is also likely to draw investor attention, given its broader implications for interest rate policy and risk appetite toward emerging-market-exposed stocks like MercadoLibre.

A Business Still Expanding Rapidly

Despite the market’s repeated skepticism toward the company’s margin trajectory, MercadoLibre’s underlying growth metrics have remained robust throughout the year. The company has continued expanding its logistics infrastructure across Brazil, its largest market, including the addition of new fulfillment centers and last-mile delivery capacity, part of a broader strategy that management has consistently framed as prioritizing long-term market share and customer growth over near-term profitability.

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With MercadoLibre once again demonstrating record revenue growth alongside a third consecutive quarter of declining net income, investors are likely to continue closely scrutinizing the company’s margin trajectory in the quarters ahead, particularly as it relates to the scaling of its fintech and credit operations. Whether the current pattern of strong sales growth paired with narrowing profitability represents a sustainable long-term strategy or a source of continued near-term stock volatility is expected to remain the central question shaping investor sentiment toward the company through the remainder of 2026.

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INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Prepared Remarks Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript