Solana price rallied nearly 7% from its Aug. 7 low, breaking a five-week descending channel as proposed supply changes and institutional adoption renewed demand for SOL.

Solana price breaks its five-week downtrend

According to data from crypto.news, Solana (SOL) price traded around $76.93 on Aug. 10, up nearly 7% from its Aug. 7 low of $72.49. The recovery pushed SOL through the upper boundary of a descending channel that had controlled its price since early July.

The 4-hour chart shows that SOL first reclaimed $74.30 before breaking the channel near $75. The price then climbed to an intraday high of $77.36, where buyers encountered initial resistance.

Trading volume expanded during the breakout, while the bull-bear power indicator rose to 1.23. A positive reading indicates that buyers currently have more short-term control than sellers.

The Supertrend indicator has also flipped below the market and now provides dynamic support at $75.02. Holding above this level would keep the 4-hour structure bullish and could turn the former channel resistance into support.

Crypto analyst Dami-Defi identified the same structural change in an Aug. 10 post on X.

“SOL just broke a five-week downtrend,” the analyst said.

The breakout does not yet confirm a broader trend reversal, however. SOL remains well below its May swing high near $97 and its January peak above $145.

What is driving the SOL recovery?

The rally coincided with growing validator support for two proposals designed to reduce Solana’s future supply growth.

SIMD-0550 would increase the annual disinflation rate from 15% to 30%, bringing the network toward its terminal inflation rate faster. SIMD-0553 would introduce resource-based transaction fees and could raise daily SOL burns from about 650 tokens to between 7,500 and 9,000.

The formal governance process is expected to run through Aug. 18. The proposals remain subject to validator approval, meaning their projected supply effects are not guaranteed. Solana’s governance forum describes SIMD-0550 as a doubling of the pace at which inflation declines.

Institutional developments have added another source of demand. BlackRock recently unveiled its Daily Reinvestment Stablecoin Reserve Vehicle, which can record fund ownership across several public blockchains, including Solana. The product holds cash, short-term U.S. Treasuries and repurchase agreements rather than SOL itself.

Western Union has also expanded its use of the network. Its USDPT stablecoin is issued on Solana by federally regulated Anchorage Digital Bank, while a related Stablecard product launched across 37 markets. Western Union formally launched USDPT on Solana in May.

These developments do not directly require institutions to purchase SOL in large amounts. They do, however, strengthen Solana’s case as infrastructure for regulated funds and dollar-based payments.

SOL targets $78 liquidity before $80

The three-day liquidation heatmap shows the nearest concentration of leveraged positions around $77.80–$78.20. This zone matches the next horizontal resistance visible on the 4-hour chart.

A break above $78 could trigger another round of short liquidations and open a move toward $80. The upper section of the former channel and previous July swing levels place the next larger resistance between $82 and $84.

Dami-Defi’s chart projects a possible move toward $83 if SOL successfully retests the broken trendline.

Michaël van de Poppe offered a more ambitious longer-term outlook. In an Aug. 10 market update, he said SOL had formed a higher low against Bitcoin and forecast a possible recovery toward $100–$120.

That target would require SOL to reclaim several resistance zones that are not visible in the current short-term breakout. The first tests remain $78, $80, and $83.

Daily Solana chart still needs confirmation

SOL’s daily chart is improving, although it has not produced a fully confirmed bullish reversal.

The price has moved above the Ichimoku conversion line at $74.89 and the baseline at $74.73. SOL is also attempting to clear the upper edge of the cloud around $76.93, making the current area an important daily closing level.

A sustained close above the cloud would strengthen the case for a move toward $80–$84. Rejection near $77, however, could send SOL back to test the Ichimoku cluster between $74.73 and $74.89.

The Awesome Oscillator remains slightly negative at -0.46. Its red bars have contracted and the indicator is moving toward zero, suggesting bearish momentum is fading but has not yet reversed completely.

Liquidation data reinforces the downside levels. Large long-liquidation concentrations sit around $75.70, $75.10 and $72.80. If SOL loses $75, forced selling could pull the price toward $73 before buyers regain control.

US developments remain a key SOL catalyst

Solana’s institutional adoption has become increasingly tied to regulated U.S. financial infrastructure. BlackRock’s fund structure involves tokenized ownership of Treasury-backed assets, while Western Union’s USDPT is issued by a U.S. federally chartered crypto bank.

The next network catalyst is the planned Alpenglow rollout. The upgrade aims to reduce transaction finality from about 12.8 seconds to between 100 and 150 milliseconds, with implementation expected in stages between August and October if testing proceeds as planned.

For now, SOL’s 4-hour breakout favors buyers while the price remains above $75. A daily close above $78 would provide stronger confirmation and shift focus toward $80–$84. Losing $74 would place the breakout at risk and reopen the path toward $72.80.

Bitcoin opened the week by printing fresh August highs as traders digested incoming U.S. inflation figures and renewed attention on global rate expectations. With the latest month-to-date strength pushing price toward the mid-$60,000s, market participants are now focusing on whether key technical levels can hold—especially with volatility risk rising ahead of CPI and PPI releases.

At the same time, the macro backdrop remains complicated: markets are still recalibrating the path for Federal Reserve policy into 2026, while the Japanese yen has moved back toward the widely watched 160-per-dollar area after recent U.S.-linked intervention. The mix of macro drivers and onchain positioning is helping shape a market debate that’s increasingly split between large holders and smaller retail addresses.

Key takeaways

• U.S. CPI and PPI data land this week, arriving after mixed-but-cooler inflation and labor signals that have shifted rate-hike odds.
• The Japanese yen is back near the 160 level following earlier intervention dynamics that traders link to broader risk-asset liquidity.
• BTC bulls are centered on the $65,800 region, framed by multiple traders and order-book-derived liquidation focus.
• CryptoQuant data points to a multi-month high in accumulation among large Bitcoin wallets (addresses holding >10,000 BTC).
• Despite pockets of strength, onchain “cycle” indicators still suggest the bear market phase may not be over—particularly in the second half of 2026.

Inflation data and the Fed’s tightening/pausing calculus

This week’s market attention is firmly on the release schedule for the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index. The July CPI is due on Wednesday and the July PPI on Thursday, milestones that often move expectations around the Federal Reserve’s future interest-rate path.

Recent inflation signals have been uneven, and the new prints arrive amid additional uncertainty tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. According to Reuters, oil prices have remained sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz—an exposure that can feed through to CPI depending on whether shipping conditions deteriorate or reopen. SS WealthStreet founder Sugandha Sachdeva told Reuters that crude oil remains “caught between opposing forces” as markets weigh the possibility of a breakthrough over the strait versus Iran’s conditions for reopening.

Beyond oil, the immediate context for traders is the direction of prior U.S. macro releases. Cointelegraph previously noted that last month’s CPI and PPI results surprised to the downside, with CPI posting its largest monthly decline since April 2020. Labor-market data also contributed to a cooler tone: after nonfarm payrolls fell short of expectations, Cointelegraph reported weaker-than-expected labor conditions and rising odds of a more dovish Fed.

Those changes have mattered for rate pricing. As reflected in CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed pausing at its Sept. 16 meeting stood at 56% as of Monday, after earlier market pricing leaned more heavily toward a hike. In the latest edition of its newsletter, Mosaic Asset Company wrote that a week earlier implied odds favored a September rate hike, but now pricing “slightly favor[s] the Fed keeping rates on hold,” with just one hike before pausing well into next year.

Yen dynamics return to the center of risk-asset debate

While U.S. data drives part of the narrative, traders are also monitoring currency flows that can alter liquidity across global markets. The Japanese yen has remained a focal point after a rare episode of U.S.-Japanese coordination—the first joint intervention since the late 1990s.

After USD/JPY weakened to its lowest levels since 1986 earlier in August, the New York Fed—acting on behalf of the U.S. Treasury—purchased yen using euros via the Exchange Stabilization Fund. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated at the time that further interventions were possible, arguing the U.S. strongly supports Japan’s steps to correct what he characterized as the yen’s “substantial undervaluation.”

In the days since, the yen’s trajectory has been mixed. It initially strengthened toward around 156 per dollar, but has since weakened again and is back above 158.50, edging toward the key 160 level.

Brookings Institution senior fellow Robin Brooks cautioned that intervention mechanics alone may not reverse the underlying trend. In a Substack post, he compared the effectiveness of the move to prior “rate check” dynamics around Japan’s Feb. 8 general election, arguing that price action didn’t show meaningful reversal and suggesting the intervention is unlikely to stop the yen’s weakening trend.

Earlier Cointelegraph reporting also flagged how the yen carry trade can influence liquidity conditions for crypto and other risk assets. QCP Capital similarly emphasized that the larger issue is whether higher Japanese yields change incentives for investors to allocate capital overseas.

BTC technical focus shifts to $65,800 while traders watch liquidity

Bitcoin’s price action during the week has been defined by a blend of breakout expectations and resistance from widely watched moving averages. Into Sunday’s weekly close, BTC printed month-to-date highs around $65,420, then consolidated as traditional markets reopened.

TradingView data continued to show BTC/USD stuck in a range, with the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) acting as overhead resistance near $65,827. Still, trader Michaël van de Poppe argued that three breakout signals are forming based on traditional momentum indicators. He reported “strong” bullish divergences in both MACD and RSI across three-day and one-week time frames—an approach that looks for confirmation even when price temporarily stalls.

In van de Poppe’s framework, the pivotal line is $65,800. He suggested that if the $65,800 weekly level breaks, a “volatile move upwards” could follow due to short-side liquidity being forced to exit after consolidation. Separately, CoinGlass order-book-derived liquidation mapping also highlighted $65,800 as a key area where liquidations could cluster if price turns decisively.

At the time of reporting, cross-crypto short liquidations over the prior 24 hours were $53 million, indicating that while the market is not in a full-scale expansion phase, traders are positioned enough for moves around key levels to have feedback effects.

Other technical commentary from CryptoQuant contributor Andrew Kamsky pointed to a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart and described a potential “decision window” for the range by Aug. 17. He framed scenarios where rejection between $66.4K and $66.8K followed by higher lows could build toward an ascending triangle, while a move back inside the wedge would weaken the bullish setup and a break below support would invalidate it. As an upside possibility, Kamsky cited $72,000 as a “possible scenario.”

Onchain signals: large-wallet accumulation rises as smaller holders reduce

The most constructive onchain development comes from growing activity among large Bitcoin investors. CryptoQuant’s analysis points to a sharp shift toward accumulation among addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC. On a 60-day rolling basis, that cohort’s balance increased by 46,420 BTC on Aug. 9, which CryptoQuant described as the largest uptick since March 15.

CryptoQuant also emphasized that the latest reading nearly doubled the 23,238 BTC accumulation peak recorded in mid-March. In other words, the acceleration has not merely continued—it has intensified.

Just as importantly, CryptoQuant described a divergence between large holders and smaller addresses. After accumulating through July, wallets holding between 0.1 BTC and 1 BTC distributed roughly 9,700 BTC over the same 60-day window through Aug. 9. The implication is that large holders are adding exposure while smaller participants are trimming, a positioning split that matters because it can influence how quickly demand absorbs sell pressure if price tests lower support levels.

This week’s accumulation narrative also fits into a broader backdrop of participation concerns. Cointelegraph previously cited CryptoQuant-era observations of strong accumulation between $62,000 and $65,000 alongside order-book and market-structure debates. Glassnode cofounder Rafael Schultze-Kraft added another angle in social commentary: he described spot markets as “virtually dead,” pointing to a daily spot turnover ratio of 0.32% (the lowest level in his data) and a roughly 64% year-over-year decline in dollar volume.

Cycle indicators still warn that the bear market may be lingering

Even with accumulation data and bullish divergences on short-term charts, some analysts argue the market remains in a late-stage bear-market condition. Schultze-Kraft discussed a record “capitulation” phase in a basket of 45 indicators tracked via Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap. In his description, the market is in its coldest stretch since FTX—late in the bear cycle but not yet in the most definitive “deep blue” stage that previously marked a floor.

CoinGlass offers a similar framing through its Bull Cycle Peak Indicators compilation, which it reports as sitting 32% toward an ideal “sell” zone. Taken together, these approaches suggest that while selective accumulation and liquidity dynamics may support short-term upside attempts, structural reversal confirmation may still require more broad participation than what spot metrics currently indicate.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital added a historical lens by comparing the current chart structure to the 2022 bear market. In a weekend post, he argued that Bitcoin was forming lower highs relative to a July upside wick in 2022, while August produced a higher high in that earlier cycle. He also reiterated that Bitcoin has yet to reclaim the 50-month EMA around $65,827—presenting the same technical ingredient that often precedes a deeper bear-market capitulation phase.

For traders and investors, the next decision points are likely to converge: how CPI and PPI shift Fed expectations, whether the yen’s approach to 160 changes global liquidity incentives, and whether BTC can turn $65,800 into a confirmed support level rather than another range boundary. Watch whether onchain accumulation broadens alongside spot activity—or whether the market continues to show strength dominated by a smaller set of large holders.

BNB price traded near $605 on Aug. 10 after reclaiming the psychological $600 level, with improving momentum and nearby liquidation clusters raising the prospect of another short squeeze.

BNB reclaims $600 after its July recovery

According to data from crypto.news, BNB (BNB) price extended its recovery on Aug. 10, trading around $605 after reaching an intraday high near $606.84. The token has now moved above $600, a level that repeatedly limited gains during the previous sessions.

The daily chart shows BNB recovering from a late-June low near $540. Buyers gradually returned through July before accelerating the move during the first 10 days of August. The price has gained roughly 12% from the June bottom and is attempting to establish a higher-high structure.

Momentum has also improved. The daily Relative Strength Index rose to 65.15, above its signal average of 57.52. An RSI reading below 70 suggests that buying pressure is increasing, but BNB has not yet entered technically overbought territory.

Still, the move has not produced a decisive breakout. BNB remains near a group of resistance levels between $605 and $610, where repeated intraday rejections show that sellers remain active.

Moving averages support the rebound, but volume lags

The latest advance appears primarily technical. BNB has reclaimed its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, currently positioned near $583.47 and $575.50, respectively. Both levels now sit below the market and could provide support during a pullback.

BNB is also testing its 100-day moving average near $604.85. A sustained daily close above this line would strengthen the recovery case and shift attention toward the 200-day moving average at $628.51.

The 4-hour chart supports the short-term bullish setup. BNB remains above the Supertrend indicator, which has moved up to $593.86. The indicator flipped bullish in late July and has continued to track the price higher.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains positive, with the MACD line at 3.30 and the signal line at 3.13. However, the histogram has narrowed to 0.17, suggesting that upward momentum is slowing as BNB tests resistance.

Thin follow-through therefore remains a risk. A lack of stronger buying volume could keep the token within its current range even if it continues to hold above $600.

Liquidation clusters put $623 within reach

BNB’s immediate resistance sits between $606 and $610, covering recent intraday highs. A 4-hour close above $610 could clear the latest supply zone and open a path toward the first major liquidation cluster around $618–$620.

The 3-day liquidation heatmap shows an even larger concentration of leveraged positions near $622–$623. If BNB breaks $610 with increasing volume, forced closures of short positions could accelerate the move into this zone.

Beyond that, the 200-day moving average at $628.51 represents the main daily resistance. Additional liquidity appears near $630 and $635, making the broader $628–$635 region a difficult area for bulls to clear.

On the downside, the closest liquidity pool is around $598. That level sits just below the psychological $600 mark and could attract price during a short-term correction.

The Supertrend at $593.86 provides the next support. Losing that level would weaken the 4-hour structure and expose the 20-day moving average at $583.47. The 50-day moving average near $575.50 would become the deeper invalidation level for the current recovery.

Analyst maps a longer-term path toward $780

Crypto commentator DongPham said BNB has recorded three constructive weekly closes but remains in a broader retracement after losing a long-term uptrend around $673 in February.

The analyst identified $780–$790 as a possible longer-term retest area. Reaching that target would require BNB to first reclaim the $628–$635 resistance zone and then break above the former trend level near $673.

DongPham also noted that trading volume had not increased alongside the latest recovery. That divergence matters because a price rise without stronger participation may struggle to continue through multiple resistance levels.

The short-term charts support a more measured target. BNB first needs to hold $600 and close above $610 before the liquidation clusters at $618–$623 become attainable. The $780–$790 projection remains a longer-term scenario rather than an immediate target.

Losing $594 could invalidate the bullish setup

For US traders, BNB remains sensitive to broader moves in Bitcoin, Ethereum and global risk assets. Changes in US interest-rate expectations, Treasury yields and the dollar can affect demand for higher-risk crypto assets even when BNB’s immediate setup is driven by technical levels.

BNB also carries exchange-specific risk because of its close association with the Binance ecosystem. Its availability and liquidity can differ across US trading platforms, so American investors may face different spreads and execution conditions from traders using global exchanges.

The short-term bias remains constructive while BNB stays above $593.86. A confirmed break above $610 could trigger a move toward $618–$623, while failure to defend $598 would put the current breakout attempt at risk.

USD/JPY finds itself at the centre of one of the most dramatic currency stories this summer. Having weakened to a four-decade low near ¥164, the yen was pulled back sharply after Japan and the US carried out a coordinated intervention, with Tokyo reportedly spending around $34 billion in a single session to defend its currency. The move briefly pushed the pair toward ¥155, though the yen has since given back some of those gains, trading back near ¥158 as doubts persist over how long intervention alone can hold.

The underlying driver remains the wide gap between US and Japanese interest rates, made worse by rebounding oil prices following renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are now watching for a possible BoJ hike in September, encouraged by six straight months of rising real wages, while the Fed’s own July dissents—three policymakers pushed for a hike over a hold—keep US rates firmly in the driver’s seat too.

With both central banks now genuinely in play, USD/JPY’s next move looks set to hinge on which side moves first: Tokyo’s rate decision, or Washington’s next data-driven signal.

Technical Analysis of USD/JPY

As the USD/JPY chart shows, the pair collapsed sharply after the coordinated intervention, dropping from the 163.76 highs to a low near 155.21 before staging a steady recovery. Price is now testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 158.48, supported by an ascending trendline off the intervention low, with the RSI showing a bullish divergence as it prints higher lows even as price briefly retested the range.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers hold the ascending trendline and break decisively above the 0.382 retracement, the path would open toward the 0.5 level near 159.49, with a stronger move targeting the 0.618 retracement around 160.50, where deeper resistance likely awaits.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline would invalidate the current recovery structure, exposing a retest of the intervention low near 155.21-156.00, with the RSI divergence losing credibility if price fails to hold this zone.

With price coiled right at the 0.382 confluence, and both the trendline and RSI hinting at renewed strength, USD/JPY looks set for a decisive move—will the recovery from intervention extend, or will Tokyo’s defence prove only temporary?

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