“No major financial center has yet built a framework that treats tokenized equities simultaneously as securities, blockchain-native tokens, and DeFi-composable assets,” said Brett Tejpaul, co-CEO of Coinbase Institutional, the exchange’s arm focused at institutional digital asset investors.

Coinbase have already established a footprint in United Arab Emirates before Tuesday’s regulatory approval. In 2023, the firm’s asset management arm initiated Project Diamond to let institutional investors issue and trade digital debt instruments using Base, Coinbase’s Ethereum-based blockchain network. Last, month, Mubadala Capital, the asset management arm of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, tokenized one of its private-market investment strategies through UAE-based infrastructure provider KAIO on blockchain including Base, with Coinbase itself taking exposure to the fund.

The Abu Dhabi operation will sit alongside Coinbase’s derivatives business in Dubai, the company said, giving it two bases in the UAE for expanding businesses outside the U.S.

Key takeaways

•  Stellar has fallen below a critical support zone.
• The long-to-short ratio for XLM has declined to 0.94 and 0.90, respectively.
• The funding rate for XLM has turned negative, reflecting stronger demand for short positions.

XLM continues to underperform

Stellar (XLM) remains under pressure on Tuesday after recording modest declines during the previous session. XRP is drifting toward the psychologically important $1.00 level, while XLM has slipped below a key support zone.

Weakening derivatives-market indicators are limiting the prospects of an immediate recovery for XLM. Declining long-to-short ratios, negative funding rates and rising open interest suggest that traders are increasingly positioning for further price declines.

 XLM’s long-to-short ratio has fallen to 0.90 on Tuesday, approaching its lowest level in more than a month.

A ratio below one indicates that short positions outnumber long positions, meaning more traders are betting that the assets will decline. The current readings suggest that bearish sentiment is particularly strong among XLM traders.

The falling ratios also indicate that confidence in a near-term rebound is weakening as both assets struggle to recover from their recent losses.

XLM technical forecast: XLM could dip to $0.1500

Stellar (XLM) trades near $0.161 on Tuesday, extending its decline below the short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages. The current structure keeps XLM’s near-term outlook bearish as buyers struggle to regain control.

The token remains below the descending trendline breakout level at $0.166, which now acts as immediate resistance. Its Relative Strength Index stands near 35, indicating weak buying momentum without placing XLM in technically oversold territory.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator also remains below its zero line, reinforcing the downside bias as XLM consolidates beneath its key moving averages.

If a recovery begins, XLM must first reclaim the descending trendline near $0.166. A sustained move above that level could allow buyers to challenge the horizontal resistance at $0.177.

The 50-day EMA at $0.178 and the 100-day EMA at $0.181 create a concentrated resistance zone that could limit further gains. Above these levels, the 200-day EMA at $0.193 represents a broader bearish pivot. Reclaiming this moving average would be necessary to signal a more meaningful change in trend.

On the downside, XLM’s next major support is located at $0.142. A decisive break below this level could accelerate the current decline and expose the token to further losses before buyers attempt to establish a new price floor.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin trades below $64,000 as stalled US-Iran negotiations weaken demand for risk-sensitive assets.
• Rising oil prices are increasing inflation concerns and expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $144.67 million in net outflows on Monday, ending a five-day inflow streak.

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling below $64,000 at the time of writing on Tuesday as rising oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran negotiations weigh on market sentiment.

Weakening institutional demand has added to the pressure. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows at the beginning of the week, ending a five-day run of positive flows.

The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, renewed inflation concerns and softer ETF demand is keeping investors cautious and limiting Bitcoin’s ability to recover.

US-Iran deadlock pushes oil prices higher

Negotiations between the United States and Iran over a potential peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz appear to have reached an impasse.

US President Donald Trump responded to Iran’s conditions for a peace agreement with additional demands on Monday, including compensation for people killed in wars, attacks and protests, according to Reuters.

The rhetorical escalation could complicate diplomatic efforts and delay the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments.

Concerns about prolonged disruption have pushed oil prices higher while pressuring risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin.

A sustained increase in energy prices could lift production and transportation costs, creating renewed inflationary pressure. Higher inflation could give the Federal Reserve more reason to maintain restrictive monetary policy or raise interest rates.

Expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase have strengthened alongside the rally in oil prices.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows that market participants are pricing in a 51.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting. That figure has increased from 44.1% on Friday.

Higher interest rates generally reduce demand for speculative assets by increasing borrowing costs and making interest-bearing investments more attractive. As a result, rising rate-hike expectations could continue to limit Bitcoin’s upside.

However, expectations could shift again in response to incoming inflation, employment and economic-growth data.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin began the week on a weaker footing. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $144.67 million in net outflows on Monday, according to SoSoValue. The withdrawal ended five consecutive trading days of net inflows.

ETF flows are closely watched because they provide insight into demand from institutional and traditional-market investors. Sustained inflows can support Bitcoin by increasing spot-market buying, while persistent outflows can add selling pressure.

Monday’s outflow does not necessarily establish a broader trend. However, additional withdrawals throughout the week could deepen Bitcoin’s correction and further weaken investor sentiment.

Bitcoin price remains below key moving averages

Bitcoin trades near $63,916 at the time of writing on Tuesday after falling 1.44% during the previous session.

The cryptocurrency remains below a cluster of important Exponential Moving Averages, maintaining its bearish near-term structure.

The 50-day EMA at $64,625 represents Bitcoin’s nearest resistance. Above that level, the 100-day EMA at $66,795 and the 200-day EMA at $72,045 create additional barriers.

With all three moving averages positioned above the current price, BTC faces substantial resistance during any recovery attempt.

Momentum indicators also show a lack of decisive buying pressure. The Relative Strength Index stands near 48, slightly below its neutral midpoint of 50.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence line remains marginally below zero and close to its signal line. The setup reflects weak and largely directionless momentum rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.

Bitcoin must reclaim the 50-day EMA at $64,625 to improve its short-term outlook. A sustained break above this level could allow buyers to target the 100-day EMA at $66,795. 

Further gains would bring the 200-day EMA at $72,045 into focus, followed by the broader horizontal resistance at $75,719.

On the downside, Bitcoin’s immediate support is located at $62,345. Buyers may attempt to defend this level if geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures continue.

A decisive daily close below $62,345 would strengthen the bearish outlook and potentially trigger a deeper correction toward the yearly low of $57,800, established on July 1.

Overnight, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.35%, as widely expected after June’s inflation data came in softer than forecast at 3.8% headline. Yet the accompanying statement struck a notably cautious tone, warning that trimmed mean inflation remains elevated and largely unchanged from the March quarter, with oil and related commodities still trading above pre-conflict levels due to the ongoing Middle East crisis. With 55% of economists still expecting at least one further hike in 2026, the door to additional tightening remains firmly open.

The euro, meanwhile, holds a cautiously bullish tone after climbing to a seven-week high near $1.155 against the dollar. Eurozone Q2 growth of 0.4% offered support, though weaker retail activity and mixed inflation signals keep the ECB’s own path uncertain, with policymakers maintaining a deliberately cautious stance ahead of their September 15-16 meeting and giving no firm commitment to further hikes.

The result: two central banks in genuine holding patterns, each leaving the door open to more tightening while waiting for clearer data to justify the next move.

Technical Analysis of EUR/AUD

As EUR/AUD chart shows, the pair staged a strong rally from July’s lows near 1.6243, a move that followed a bullish RSI divergence, where price carved a lower low while the RSI printed a higher low. Since topping near 1.6500 in late July, price has been compressing into a symmetrical triangle, with a descending trendline and an ascending trendline converging right around the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci zone near 1.6342-1.6372.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers defend the ascending trendline and break above the descending one, the path would open toward the 0.382 retracement near 1.6402, with a stronger move potentially targeting a retest of the 1.6500 highs if momentum builds.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 0.618 retracement near 1.6341 would expose the 0.786 level near 1.6298, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 1.6243 low that anchored the entire July rally.

With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, and the RSI sitting in neutral territory after cooling from its earlier divergence, EUR/AUD looks poised for a decisive break—will the euro extend its late-July strength, or does the Aussie reclaim the upper hand?

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Bitcoin traders have increasingly looked to stablecoins for clues about where risk appetite is headed. A new data review from CryptoQuant highlights that Tether’s USDT has been shrinking in market value at an unusually fast pace—yet the same patterns in past bear markets suggest the selloff may be approaching its end.

According to CryptoQuant, USDT’s 60-day rolling market-cap change averaged about minus $4.88 billion as of Aug. 10, while the most recent 11-day window saw nearly $870 million of USDT supply disappear. The combination points to a liquidity retreat that typically pressures broader crypto performance, but it also aligns with the late-stage behavior of prior downturns.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant reports USDT’s 60-day market-cap contraction remains near $4 billion, one of its sharpest declines on record.
• Nearly $870 million of USDT supply vanished over the latest 11-day period, indicating the contraction is actively continuing.
• The steepest 60-day contraction phase previously peaked around July 13 at approximately minus $5.72 billion.
• CryptoQuant argues that the worst stablecoin drawdowns have historically occurred near exhaustion points rather than at the beginning of further acceleration.
• Weekly RSI divergence arguments from analysts like William Clemente echo a broader “late bear-market” narrative.

USDT contraction tightens crypto liquidity

In a CryptoQuant blog post published last week, the onchain analytics firm described USDT as undergoing “one of its sharpest contractions on record.” The emphasis is not just on the overall size of the decline, but on whether the process is still worsening.

CryptoQuant notes that the deterioration has accelerated “at the margin,” pointing to about $870 million in USDT disappearing over the latest 11-day period. It also frames the 60-day market-cap change metric as a way to gauge sustained redemption pressure rather than one-off redemptions.

From a market mechanics perspective, stablecoins often function as a bridge for capital across exchanges and trading pairs. When USDT supply contracts, liquidity can become less available, reducing the “dry powder” investors might use to buy dips—or to rotate into other risk assets.

CryptoQuant cautions, however, against assuming a clean cause-and-effect relationship between stablecoin flows and Bitcoin’s spot price. In its view, both can respond to the same broader risk-off conditions: redemptions may accelerate alongside spot selling, rather than predictively preceding it.

“The caution is that correlation between USDT flows and BTC price doesn’t settle causality,” CryptoQuant analysts said. They added that sustained USDT expansion has historically coincided with stronger Bitcoin price regimes, while prolonged contractions have aligned with weaker demand and deeper corrections.

Late-stage bear-market behavior, not necessarily a fresh leg down

The key analytical question for traders is whether the USDT drawdown is merely “history repeating” or whether it signals a new intensification of selling pressure. CryptoQuant’s answer leans toward the former.

Historically, the firm argues, the most pronounced phases of USDT contraction tend to occur toward the final chapters of macro downturns, when selling momentum begins to move closer to exhaustion than to further acceleration. In that framework, severe stablecoin redemptions become less a signal to short the next day and more an indicator that the market has already been tested heavily.

CryptoQuant also highlights a specific milestone in the recent contraction cycle: the steepest 60-day decline in USDT market cap completed on July 13, when it reached about minus $5.72 billion. That point matters because it offers a reference level for where “worst-case” pressure may have already been seen—meaning later readings could represent stabilization or easing rather than escalation.

Still, the data in the CryptoQuant update is not painting a picture of immediate normalization. The latest 60-day average remains close to the multi-billion-dollar contraction zone, suggesting liquidity conditions are tight even if selling intensity may be moderating at the margin.

RSI divergence arguments reinforce a “bottoming” thesis

While stablecoin contractions speak to liquidity and risk appetite, technical market indicators often shape how traders interpret timing. The CryptoQuant findings have added momentum to broader “late bear market” narratives, including comparative analysis that points to earlier cycle behavior.

Cointelegraph has reported that some market participants are increasingly aligning with the idea of a new Bitcoin macro bottom forming before the end of 2026, even if the near-term trend remains volatile. In the same broader discussion, independent analyst William Clemente has argued for a cautious “cheap but not done yet” view.

On Aug. 8, Clemente posted on X that he considers Bitcoin “cheap,” while allowing for the possibility of “a leg lower” at some point during the year. Two days later, he highlighted what he described as a bullish divergence between BTC/USD and the relative strength index (RSI) on weekly time frames.

That divergence is widely treated as a leading indicator in technical analysis—particularly because the strongest RSI divergence signals historically appeared during turning points, including at the end of the 2022 bear market. In Cointelegraph’s earlier coverage, RSI divergence was framed as a “classic” reversal signal that coincided with the conclusion of that drawdown cycle.

What to watch next: stablecoin flows and confirmation signals

If CryptoQuant’s interpretation is correct, the most concerning USDT drawdown phases may already have passed their peak, even if contraction continues in the background. For investors and traders, the practical question is whether the contraction rate keeps accelerating or whether it begins to flatten—especially relative to the steepest reading around July 13.

In the coming weeks, market watchers may want to track whether USDT’s 60-day market-cap change continues near minus $4 billion or starts moving toward less negative territory, as well as whether BTC’s technical picture—such as the weekly RSI divergence narrative—gets reinforced by actual trend stabilization rather than only indicator hints. The stablecoin/liquidity story may not be the sole driver of price, but it can shape how quickly the market regains the ability to absorb dips and rebuild demand.

Crypto investigators are grappling with one of the toughest loss-allocation problems in digital asset security: estimating theft from self-custody wallets, where there is no authoritative registry of affected users. The ongoing analysis of the Coldcard-related hack is now producing markedly different figures depending on how teams treat “confirmed” victim reports versus on-chain attributions.

Blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant currently puts confirmed losses at 1,432 Bitcoin, while Galaxy Research and TRM Labs argue the broader toll is higher when tracing suggests additional victims across multiple waves. The discrepancy highlights why hardware-wallet exploits can be hard to quantify—and why investors and security watchers should treat any single number as provisional.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant reports 1,432 BTC as a confirmed floor, relying on victim-provided evidence before labeling funds stolen.
• Galaxy Research says it has high-confidence minimum losses of 1,730 BTC, using victim reports to validate wider attack patterns.
• TRM Labs estimates attackers drained roughly 1,816 BTC across 5,200+ addresses in four waves, with the figure expected to keep rising before stabilizing.
• All parties underscore that there is no complete list of affected self-custody accounts, so totals can only be inferred—not definitively counted.

Why Coldcard thefts are difficult to total

Self-custody incidents differ sharply from exchange hacks, where investigators can often begin with a centralized list of compromised accounts or balances. In the Coldcard case, analytics teams instead have to assemble estimates from scattered disclosures—wallet addresses and transaction identifiers shared by victims—then map those to on-chain behavior consistent with the attack.

That structure creates two competing measurement philosophies. One is conservative: count only losses that victims directly confirm, to avoid “false positives” from pattern matching. The other is investigative: use confirmed losses to identify additional wallet clusters and transactions that likely belong to other victims, even when those victims have not yet come forward publicly.

The result is a widening gap between “confirmed” and “attributed” totals—exactly the gap that matters for incident reporting, accountability, and the credibility of downstream security narratives.

Galaxy narrows a moving minimum—backed by victim corroboration

Galaxy’s approach, as explained to Cointelegraph by Alex Thorn, treats early totals as tentative until victim disclosures can corroborate suspected victims and linked on-chain activity. Thorn previously described Galaxy’s earlier estimate—up to 1,816 BTC—as a potential figure rather than a finalized tally.

By Tuesday, Galaxy reported a high-confidence minimum of 1,730 BTC. Thorn also indicated that the minimum could still increase as more victim reports align with the attack’s observed patterns.

In Thorn’s description, the key distinction is between (1) losses directly supported by victim-reported information and (2) additional losses identified through the broader pattern those reports help validate. Galaxy said it has directly confirmed 450+ BTC from victim reports, while those reports have helped uncover other victims in a wider set totaling more than 730 BTC. At the same time, Galaxy said it is still holding back BTC it suspects but cannot yet verify with sufficient corroboration.

For readers, this methodology matters because it suggests a “floor that can rise” dynamic: as the public dataset of victim evidence grows, the subset that analysts can confidently label as theft expands, improving the stability of the totals.

TRM Labs: broader tracing across multiple waves

TRM Labs told Cointelegraph that its independent tracing lands in the same general range as Galaxy. In its more detailed analysis, TRM said its work estimated that attackers drained about 1,816 BTC from more than 5,200 addresses across four waves.

TRM’s Ari Redbord, global head of policy, cautioned that investigators should expect estimates to keep moving upward before settling. That framing aligns with the reality that self-custody victims may take time to discover compromise, identify relevant addresses, and disclose the information needed for analysts to match on-chain traces.

TRM’s results also underline why the same incident can generate different “totals” depending on whether analysts use strict victim confirmations or extend attribution to clusters and transactions that look consistent with the exploit.

CryptoQuant uses victim evidence to avoid inflated claims

CryptoQuant takes a more restrictive stance. According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno said the company begins with public reports from victims—including wallet addresses or transaction IDs—then checks those disclosures against known on-chain patterns associated with the Coldcard attack.

With that workflow, CryptoQuant’s current confirmed tally is 1,432 BTC, which Moreno described as a floor that may increase if additional victims publicly reveal the hacked addresses.

Moreno emphasized that CryptoQuant avoids treating on-chain pattern matching alone as a basis for identifying victims, because doing so could produce false positives and inflate the estimate. In his explanation, the fundamental issue is that the stolen Bitcoin belongs to individuals rather than a single centralized entity (like an exchange) that can provide consolidated incident data. As a result, analysts can only confirm what victims disclose.

“Knowing the total BTC stolen is difficult, and it will always be an estimation.”

CryptoQuant’s stance is a reminder that, in self-custody incidents, analytical precision is constrained by data availability. The most cautious number may not reflect the full damage—but it can be the most defensible as “confirmed” while the case is still unfolding.

What others are (and aren’t) tallying

Cointelegraph also reported that Chainalysis has not conducted an independent loss tally. Separately, blockchain investigator ZachXBT publicly stated he has no plans to monitor or trace the incident.

While the absence of a consensus total could frustrate observers seeking a single figure, it also signals that the ecosystem is converging on a shared understanding: without complete victim registries, analysts must balance completeness against verification.

For now, the main thing to watch is whether the announced figures stabilize as more victims submit corroborating wallet data. If disclosures accelerate, the “confirmed” floor should rise and estimates may converge—otherwise the spread between conservative and attributed totals may remain a persistent feature of how self-custody hacks are measured.

MoneyGram, which serves roughly 60 million active customers, views blockchain rails as a way to make cross-border transfers faster, cheaper and easier to track, without requiring customers to think about the technology powering them. Ramps fits into the vision as it connects digital assets into MoneyGram’s extensive brick-and-mortar network to help everyday customers turn tokens into local cash.

“The future of payments is built on access,” MoneyGram CEO Anthony Soohoo said in a statement. “Bringing MoneyGram Ramps to Solana is another step toward building a truly open, global payments network.”

MoneyGram has spent several years building connections between its traditional payments network and crypto. In 2022, it rolled out a service with the Stellar Development Foundation that allowed users to move between cash and Circle’s USDC stablecoin through its retail network, giving crypto wallets a physical entry and exit point for digital dollars.

The firm took that strategy further in June, announcing MGUSD, its own dollar-backed stablecoin issued by Bridge, the stablecoin infrastructure company owned by Stripe, on the Stellar XLM$0.1605 network.

The company has also been deepening its ties with Solana, becoming a validator in June, helping process and secure transactions on the network.

MoneyGram was also listed as a one of the partners in Open USD, the Stripe-led stablecoin initiative that aims to share revenue with a consortium of backers.