Projected Conference Champion, Runner-Up, and Contenders

Champion: BYU

Bear Bachmeier enters his sophomore year after leading BYU to 12 wins as a true freshman.

The Cougars are 15-3 in conference games over the last two seasons and are 23-4 overall. Translation: Kalani Sitake is cooking. The combination of the NIL era and the transition out of independence has supercharged the program.

Now, BYU is a powerhouse in the Big 12. Bachmeier’s development should be the catalyst that pushes the Cougars to the Playoff in 2026.

Runner Up: Texas Tech

The Brendan Sorsby situation has been a disaster for Texas Tech. Not only did they lose their expected starting quarterback, but the entire college football world has collectively turned against them.

Nobody was brought in as a late replacement, leaving a significant question at the quarterback position. Will Hammond might be the answer. But his injury history and lack of experience are concerning.

Still, the rest of the roster should be elite. There’s nobody that can pay the way Texas Tech does. Money talks. And builds a strong roster.

Contender: Houston

The Cougars won 10 games last year in Willie Fritz’s second season. And starting quarterback Conner Weigman is back. But nobody is talking about Houston.

The program was a dumpster fire before Fritz took over. It only took two seasons to get to double-digit wins. Imagine what Year Three will bring.

Before coming to Houston, he led Tulane to 12 wins in 2022 and 11 in 2023. The guy just wins games. Look for Houston to compete for a Big 12 Championship this season.

Contender: Utah

Morgan Scalley takes over as head coach after waiting in the wings for years. Since 2016, Scalley had been Utah’s defensive coordinator and helped shape the identity of the program.

Now, he’s the lead man and returns star quarterback Devon Dampier. Named the 2025 Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year, Dampier led the Utes to 11 wins last season.

The transition from Kyle Whittingham wasn’t exactly clean-cut. But it’s water under the bridge. The expectations around Utah are real. The new era begins.

Contender: Arizona

Noah Fifita enters his redshirt senior season with momentum. The Wildcats won nine games last year and return coordinators on both sides of the ball. Wide receiver Tre Spivey is set for a productive year and could emerge as a star.

But there are questions on defense. The secondary lost several key players that must be replaced. Brent Brennan did his part by keeping defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales on the staff.

If contributors step up in the defensive backfield, Arizona could be competitive in the Big 12 title race.

The Rest of the Big 12

Arizona State

Kenny Dillingham hit the portal hard over the offseason. Arizona State’s transfer class is ranked No. 22 nationally, per 247Sports. But all eyes are on the quarterback.

Sam Leavitt left for LSU, and Dillingham brought in two transfers. Cutter Boley started 11 games for Kentucky and compiled a 4-7 record. Mikey Keene has 35 starts to his name after spending two years at UCF and two years at Fresno State.

Getting the quarterback battle resolved early in the season will be crucial. Because if the questions at quarterback are answered, ASU has the roster to be competitive in every Big 12 game it plays this year.

Baylor

Three. That’s the number of losing seasons Baylor has over the last four years. The program was once considered a power in the Big 12. One of the original founding members, the Bears have six 10-win seasons or better since 2011.

But expansion has put the program on the back foot. BU is 11-16 in conference games since the league started adding teams in 2023. This year, Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway was brought in to take over for the departing Sawyer Robertson.

His addition makes Baylor a dark horse in the Big 12. But with so many up-and-down years recently, there’s not much buzz around the Bears.

Central Florida

Scott Frost went 5-7 in his first year back in Orlando. It was an improvement over Guz Malzahn’s final four-win season. But Central Florida’s lack of growth in the Big 12 is concerning.

The program was a power in the American and has completely fallen off since joining in 2023. With three-straight losing seasons, it’s time for some progress to become apparent. Otherwise, UCF may be destined to be a perennial bottom dweller in the Big 12.

Fortunately, Frost knows how to get the job done there. There’s cautious optimism heading into the year. Anything less than a six-win season would be a failure.

Cincinnati

Forget the Brendan Sorsby noise. Cincinnati is on the rise. Scott Satterfield has improved the program each year since taking over in 2023.

The Bearcats had three wins that year, five in 2024, and seven last season. It’s a steady progression that’s been building up. But replacing a player like Sorsby won’t be easy.

Satterfield must not have a large enough war chest, either, because no splash transfer was brought in. The rest of the roster should be strong, though. Keep an eye on UC.

Colorado

The hype around Colorado has faded. The three wins last season were the fewest of Deion Sanders’ coaching career. But star offensive coordinator Brennan Marion was brought in to revamp the offense.

The former head coach of Sacramento State, Marion’s innovative system should result in a higher-scoring CU offense. Sophomore quarterback Julian Lewis figures to thrive within the scheme.

But there are questions on defense and the general trajectory of the program doesn’t inspire confidence. As far as preseason expectations go, there are none for Colorado.

Iowa State

Left to pick up the pieces after Matt Campbell left for Penn State, the Iowa State administration may have made a home run hire. Jimmy Rogers had great success at the FCS level, leading North Dakota State to a national championship in 2023.

Last year, Rogers patched together a roster on short notice, implemented his system, and led Washington State to a 6-6 record while playing an independent schedule.

The Cyclones might not have immediate success in Year One. But the future is bright in Ames with Rogers leading the program.

Kansas

After back-to-back five-win seasons, Kansas is in rebuild mode. Star quarterback Jalon Daniels ran out of eligibility, and KU has lost its identity.

Without Daniels in the mix, the Jayhawks might be near the bottom of the Big 12. But new stars could emerge, and the team may establish a new identity. If that happens, a bowl appearance is achievable.

It’s a critical year for Lance Leipold. Another underwhelming season would test the patience of the fanbase.

Kansas State

Collin Klein enters his first year as a head coach at the age of 36. He previously served as the offensive coordinator for Kansas State during the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Most recently, Klein was the offensive coordinator for Texas A&M.

There are many unknowns around KSU, and expectations are non-existent. It’s a foundational year, though, and one that could set the tone for seasons to come.

Avery Johnson is a dangerous quarterback, if utilized correctly. Klein may have the skill to optimize Johnson’s talent and Kansas State’s season.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys were at rock bottom last season. Legendary coach Mike Gundy was let go, and Eric Morris was brought in from North Texas. Now, there is renewed hope.

Quarterback Drew Mastemaker threw 34 touchdowns for the Mean Green in 2025 and then followed his coach to Stillwater. OSU’s success could rise and fall based on Mastemaker’s performance.

From the conference-wide perspective, the Big 12 needs Ok State to get its program together. The Pokes were supposed to be the league’s marquee football brand after Texas and Oklahoma left. Instead, it’s been several years of irrelevancy.

This season is pivotal for Morris to begin the rebuild.

TCU

Sonny Dykes lost Josh Hoover to the portal over the offseason. The departure was a significant blow to TCU’s program.

Left to find a replacement, Dykes reeled in Harvard transfer Jaden Craig. The addition didn’t make any waves and limits the expectations for the Horned Frogs’ season. It could be a disappointing year and show how important Hoover was to the team.

Yet, the Big 12 is wide open. Perhaps Craig hits the ground running and makes TCU competitive. In that sense, the Horned Frogs are a bit of a wildcard.

West Virginia

Rich Rodriguez enters Year Two of his return to Morgantown. With a full season to teach his system, a bowl appearance in 2026 is a reasonable expectation.

When executed correctly, Rodriguez’s offense is borderline unstoppable. But depth is required, and the quarterback makes or breaks the season. This year, Rodriguez has options with Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins Jr. and sophomore Scotty Fox Jr.

Executing the right reads will be critical all season long. If Hawkins can’t get it going, look for Fox to get an opportunity to steal the starting job.