Andy Burnham has been warned that the UK economy could barely grow next year if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues until the end of 2026.

Treasury sources have confirmed that internal modelling presented to the new prime minister and chancellor suggests UK GDP growth could be as low as 0.3% in 2027, as first reported by Bloomberg.

Government officials say they routinely plan for all possible scenarios.

The UK economy saw a strong start to the year, but growth then faltered with the conflict in the Middle East affecting some businesses. The Iran war has pushed up oil and fuel prices, and also disrupted supply chains.

On Thursday, official figures will show how much the economy grew between April and June of this year.

Economists are expecting growth of 0.4% for the three months.

Burnham and Chancellor John Healey were presented with a reasonable worst-case scenario of the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed for the next five months, and no permanent US-Iran peace deal until the new year.

The Treasury modelling for that scenario was that the UK economy would grow by 0.9% over 2026 – slightly under the 1.1% forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March.

The prospect was much dimmer for next year, with just 0.3% growth projected – much lower than the OBR’s 1.6% forecast for 2027.

Under the modelling, inflation would peak at 4.3% in the first three months of next year. It currently stands at 2.6%, just above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

The prime minister and chancellor will face pressure to use the upcoming Budget on 28 October to ease the financial burden on households and businesses.

Since taking office three weeks ago, Burnham has announced policies including the removal of VAT from domestic electricity bills and bringing forward an already planned end to “subscription traps”.

But this week he told the BBC’s Wake up to Money the announcements, aimed at tackling the cost of living, are not enough on their own, hinting at further support.

He has asked Healey to look at what more the government can do on the cost of living in the Budget, with the chancellor saying it will be his “main focus”.

But Healey has said he will oversee “strong fiscal discipline” – which will limit how much the government has to spend.

Burnham has said his government will stick to the party’s 2024 manifesto pledges not to increase people’s income tax, VAT or National Insurance contributions.

He also promised to follow the fiscal rules imposed by former Chancellor Rachel Reeves, which include a pledge to balance day-to-day spending with tax revenues by the end of the decade.

NEW YORK — Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. rose 6.92% to $142.52 in midday trading Wednesday, gaining $9.23, as the company completed another successful Starlink satellite launch and investors continued to digest its recent recovery above the initial public offering price.

The Nasdaq-listed stock, trading under the ticker SPCX, has shown volatility since its June debut. SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 per share on June 12, raising approximately $75 billion to $85.7 billion in what ranked as the largest IPO in history and valuing the company near $1.8 trillion on a fully diluted basis. Shares opened higher, climbed as high as $225.64 in the following days, then declined sharply in subsequent weeks, touching an intraday low near $104.83 in early August before rebounding.

The latest advance comes after SpaceX launched 24 Starlink broadband satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The company has maintained a rapid launch cadence to expand its constellation. Starlink has been a primary growth driver, with the service reaching millions of subscribers across more than 160 countries.

SpaceX reported second-quarter results showing revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% from the prior year and ahead of analyst expectations. The company narrowed its net loss and posted adjusted EBITDA of about $3.5 billion. Launch services and Starlink contributed to the top-line growth, while investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure and related projects weighed on near-term profitability. The company ended the period with substantial cash reserves and a sizable backlog.

Investors have focused on the balance between rapid expansion and capital spending. SpaceX has outlined significant outlays for AI compute capacity and other initiatives, including a joint investment with Tesla in a large semiconductor facility in Texas known as Terafab. The project is expected to create thousands of jobs and support growing demand for computing power.

Share lockup expirations have been a key near-term factor. A major tranche of restricted shares became eligible for trading in early August without triggering the heavy selling some market participants had anticipated. The stock rebounded in subsequent sessions, reclaiming levels above the $135 IPO price. Another unlock is scheduled for August 20, which is expected to release roughly 320 million additional shares and increase the tradable float.

Analysts have offered mixed but increasingly constructive views following the earnings report and the relatively orderly first unlock. Some firms upgraded the stock, citing Starlink’s recurring revenue potential, the launch business, and longer-term opportunities in AI and satellite services. Others have highlighted valuation and the impact of elevated spending as reasons for caution.

SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, remains one of the most closely watched companies in the aerospace and technology sectors. Its Falcon 9 rockets have become a workhorse for commercial and government missions, while Starship development continues with the goal of enabling more ambitious deep-space capabilities. The public listing has given broader investors direct access after years in which the company remained private and raised capital through successive funding rounds at rising valuations.

Trading volumes have been elevated at times since the IPO as the float expands and institutional and retail participation grows. The stock joined major indexes in the weeks following its debut, further increasing visibility. Market capitalization has fluctuated with the share price, remaining among the largest of any U.S.-listed company during periods of strength.

Wednesday’s gains occurred against a backdrop of ongoing operational activity. SpaceX continues regular Starlink deployments and has maintained its position as a leading provider of launch services. The company has reported progress on constellation density and service reliability, supporting subscriber growth.

Looking ahead, investors will monitor the August 20 share unlock for any signs of selling pressure, updates on Starlink metrics, progress on AI-related projects, and the next set of financial results. Capital expenditure levels and the pace at which new investments translate into revenue remain central to the debate over the stock’s valuation.

SpaceX has described its strategy as focused on reducing the cost of access to space while building recurring revenue streams through connectivity and related services. The combination of successful launches, improving financial metrics in the second quarter, and a less severe reaction to the initial lockup expiration has supported the recent recovery in the share price.

As of midday Wednesday, the stock’s advance brought it further above the IPO level while remaining well below the post-debut peak. Market participants continue to weigh the company’s growth trajectory against the dilutive effects of unlocking shares and the capital intensity of its expansion plans.

Chick-fil-A is putting its own spin on a classic Southern combination this fall, announcing that a new Chicken & Waffles Sandwich, along with two S’mores-inspired beverages, will launch nationwide on August 24 as part of the chain’s yearlong 80th anniversary celebration.

The new items are part of what Chick-fil-A calls its “Newstalgia” campaign, a yearlong effort marking the company’s 80th anniversary by reimagining familiar, nostalgic flavors with new twists specific to the brand. Allison Duncan, Chick-fil-A’s director of menu and packaging, said the fall lineup was built around identifying comforting flavors customers already crave and reworking them in a way unique to the chain. “In this year of Newstalgia-inspired celebrations, we wanted to bring something unique this fall by reimagining the comforting flavors our Guests crave this time of year, delivering a taste that feels both familiar and new to appeal to all ages,” Duncan said in a statement.

The Chicken & Waffles Sandwich pairs Chick-fil-A’s chicken filet, available in original, spicy or grilled varieties, between two maple-flavored waffles, topped with applewood-smoked bacon and a honey butter spread, and served with a side of classic syrup for dipping or drizzling. The sandwich will be offered in two distinct sizes depending on time of day: a smaller breakfast portion available during the chain’s standard morning hours, and a larger entrée-sized version available from 10:30 a.m. through closing to accommodate lunch and dinner customers. According to nutritional information reviewed by Chowhound, the breakfast version contains 470 calories and is priced starting at $4.95, while the larger entrée version contains 620 calories and starts at $7.59, with pricing expected to vary somewhat by location. Customers who want just the waffle on its own can also order it a la carte.

Duncan said the sandwich marks a notable first for the chain. “We have never done a seasonal breakfast entrée, so we’re excited about that — and I think it points back to that nostalgic idea of breakfast for dinner,” she said, adding that the team specifically designed the sandwich to be portable given how often customers eat on the go.

The August 24 nationwide launch follows a limited-time regional test of the sandwich in San Antonio and Baltimore last year, which Chick-fil-A has described as generating an “incredible response” from customers in those markets. That successful test paved the way for the chain to move the item into a full national rollout for the 2026 fall season. The timing of the launch is also intentional: August 24 coincides with National Waffle Day, giving the debut an added promotional hook.

Alongside the sandwich, Chick-fil-A is introducing two new seasonal beverages built around the flavors of a classic campfire treat. The S’mores Milkshake starts with the chain’s signature Icedream dessert, hand-spun with a marshmallow-flavored syrup and mix-ins of chocolate shortbread and graham cracker crumbles, finished with a toasted marshmallow whipped topping. According to Chowhound’s review of the fall lineup, the S’mores Milkshake contains 640 calories and is priced at $4.85. The companion S’mores Frosted Coffee combines the same core flavors with cold brew coffee for a caffeinated version of the treat, containing 400 calories and priced at $4.75.

Duncan described the challenge of translating the specific sensory experience of a campfire s’more into a cold, hand-spun beverage. “Anytime you think about nostalgia, you think about time with friends and family, and what better way than sitting around the campfire with s’mores. They’re universal,” she said. “So it was a unique challenge of how do we bundle up all of those tastes, and those flavors, and even the textures in a cold milkshake?”

The chicken and waffles combination has become an increasingly common fixture across the fast-food and fast-casual industry in recent years. According to data from restaurant research firm Technomic, 309 operators featured some version of the chicken-and-waffles combination across 373 separate menu items in the second quarter of 2026 alone, across the United States and Canada. Other chains have made similar moves recently, with Dave’s Hot Chicken debuting a chicken and waffles item at its Las Vegas airport location last year, and KFC bringing the combination back to its own menu after a five-year absence.

Chick-fil-A’s fall rollout adds to a broader slate of 80th anniversary programming the chain has run throughout 2026 under the Newstalgia banner, which has previously included a sweepstakes, new branded merchandise, updated packaging, the return of the chain’s long-running Cow Appreciation Day promotion, and the permanent addition of Frosted Sodas and Floats to the standard menu.

The new Chicken & Waffles Sandwiches and S’mores beverages will be available at Chick-fil-A locations nationwide beginning August 24, while supplies last, with the company indicating the limited-time items are expected to remain on menus into November, subject to individual restaurant availability. As with previous limited-time offerings, customers can customize the sandwich with different filet options, an added egg, extra bacon or cheese, and their choice of Chick-fil-A’s standard sauce lineup.