Bitcoin reclaimed $64,000 after U.S. inflation eased to 3.4% in July, while market leaders said the in-line reading left the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook largely unchanged.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Aug. 12 that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% month over month in July and 3.4% from a year earlier. Both readings matched market expectations.

Core CPI, which removes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% during the month and 2.5% annually. The yearly core rate slowed from 2.6% in June, while headline inflation eased from 3.5%.

Bitcoin rebounds after in-line CPI report

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to around $64,100 following the release, recovering from an intraday low near $63,400, according to data from crypto.news.

The move offered some relief after uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz pressured crypto and other risk assets. Renewed disruption to energy supplies could lift oil prices and complicate the inflation outlook, limiting the market’s response to July’s softer figures.

Gadi Chait, investment manager at Xapo Bank, told crypto.news that Bitcoin’s reaction to inflation data largely depends on how the figures affect expected interest rates and financial conditions.

“Fundamentally, Bitcoin is a liquidity-sensitive asset. Historically, it has performed strongly when liquidity is abundant, and interest rates are low, while higher rates and tighter financial conditions have put it under pressure.”

Chait said long-term holders would focus more on the direction of monetary policy than on one inflation report. A path toward looser policy would support Bitcoin, while a higher-for-longer rate outlook would remain a headwind, he added.

Fed rate expectations remain broadly stable

The in-line report reduced the immediate prospect of an inflation-driven policy shift, but inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Polymarket data showed traders assigning a 67% probability to no change at the September meeting and a 34% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. A separate market placed the probability of at least one rate hike in 2026 near 55%.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said the CPI reading did not provide a decisive signal in either direction after the softer July employment report.

“An in-line CPI reading neither forces a hawkish re-pricing nor delivers a clear dovish catalyst after Friday’s soft jobs data. It largely preserves current September expectations and leaves the focus on Jackson Hole and the next round of inflation numbers.”

Lee described the result as relatively constructive for Bitcoin because it removed the immediate threat of an inflation-led selloff. Without a stronger monetary-policy catalyst, he expects ETF flows, market liquidity, and derivatives positioning to play a larger role in crypto prices.

Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, also said the figures left the medium-term liquidity outlook mostly unchanged. Dori identified Treasury cash balances, changes related to the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, private credit creation, and stablecoin adoption as the structural factors to watch.

Bitcoin options retain defensive pricing

Derivatives traders continued to pay more for downside protection despite the CPI figures matching forecasts, according to Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs.

“On the end-August expiry, downside strikes near $60,000 have been costing more than equivalent upside strikes near $70,000,” Grachev told crypto.news.

Grachev said the pricing gap suggested caution about the broader policy path rather than concern over one report. Demand for exposure around $70,000 had also recovered, creating a market that remained constructive in positioning while defensive in pricing.

Bitfinex analysts identified ETF flows as the first signal to monitor after the release, followed by holder behavior if Bitcoin revisits the $62,000–$63,000 area. Their pre-release assessment placed the first major upside barrier between $65,021 and $65,510 on a daily closing basis.

According to the analysts, two daily closes above $68,300 would invalidate the existing range structure. The level combines the short-term holder’s cost basis with April’s monthly opening price.

PPI becomes the next inflation test

Markets will turn to the July Producer Price Index on Aug. 13 for evidence of inflation developing earlier in the supply chain. A softer reading could reduce demand for options protection, while an upside surprise may revive concerns about another Fed rate increase.

Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theo, said the CPI result neither forced a hike nor gave markets a clear dovish catalyst. He expects short-term attention to remain on yield opportunities, with gold serving as a defensive asset while Bitcoin remains sensitive to institutional ETF flows.

Bitcoin must now hold above $64,000 and secure acceptance beyond the $65,021–$65,510 band to strengthen its rebound. Failure to do so would leave the $62,000–$63,000 area exposed as traders assess PPI, energy prices, and the next change in Fed expectations.

Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk that bitcoin moves hardest when inflation data forces a rethink on rates, gaining an average 3.25% across the three occasions in the past nine releases when inflation came in below expectations.

A downside surprise on July 14 was followed by a 4.24% rally. “An in-line report can remove a tail risk,” Selby said. “It takes a genuine surprise to create a catalyst.” He further sees room for the Fed to wait, with shelter costs up just 0.1%, energy down 1.5% and gasoline down 2.9%, and some goods categories now lapping last year’s tariff-driven increases.

The next tests are the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers later this month, the Sept. 4 jobs report and the Sept. 11 inflation release.

Equities took the news better. MSCI’s Asia Pacific index rose almost 1% with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix the biggest contributors, and Korea’s Kospi rallied almost 4% into a technical bull market, up 22% in ten days.

The mood was not uniform, with Cisco falling over 4% after hours on underwhelming earnings and Cerebras Systems dropping 17% on declining hardware sales.

Brent crude snapped a six-day run of gains, easing after a stretch that had taken it to $90 a barrel. That came as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser, General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, said Iran was preparing to carry out operations on U.S. soil under a new military doctrine.

An Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) shareholder has moved toward legal action against former ASX directors and officers, seeking court permission to pursue claims tied to the exchange’s failed blockchain-based clearing and settlement replacement project.

According to an ASX announcement on Wednesday, Rosherville Pty Ltd has informed the exchange that it intends to apply for leave to commence a statutory derivative action under sections 236 and 237 of Australia’s Corporations Act. If the Federal Court grants permission, Rosherville would bring the proceedings on ASX’s behalf—while the court would first need to assess whether the proposed case can proceed.

Key takeaways

• Rosherville Pty Ltd is seeking Federal Court leave to bring a statutory derivative action on ASX’s behalf related to the CHESS replacement project.
• ASX said there are no allegations against the exchange itself in the proposed proceeding, but it has not disclosed which former officers or directors are targeted.
• The push comes after ASIC took legal action over allegedly misleading market statements connected to the project and after ASX admitted misleading conduct.
• The dispute could clarify how far shareholders may hold former leaders accountable for oversight of high-profile fintech failures.

How the CHESS blockchain plan unraveled

ASX began investigating a replacement for CHESS—the Clearing House Electronic Subregister System—in 2016. The exchange selected a distributed-ledger approach developed with New York-based Digital Asset, with expectations at the time that ASX could become one of the first major securities markets to run core services on blockchain technology.

Those expectations ultimately did not materialize. The rollout was repeatedly delayed. In November 2022, ASX paused the project after an Accenture review identified significant issues, including problems with the design and with its ability to satisfy ASX requirements, according to reporting at the time from Cointelegraph.

By May 2023, ASX had formally abandoned the blockchain replacement plan and said it would shift to more conventional technology, another step covered in earlier reporting on the matter.

Regulator action over market statements

The Federal Court and ASIC’s involvement is central to the latest shareholder development. ASIC sued ASX in August 2024, alleging that ASX lacked a reasonable basis for statements made in February 2022 that the project was “progressing well” and on track for an April 2023 launch.

ASIC characterized the matter as a collective failure involving ASX’s board and senior executives, according to earlier coverage. The dispute culminated in a significant regulatory outcome for ASX: in June 2026, ASX admitted misleading conduct connected to the CHESS replacement project.

On July 3, the Federal Court ordered ASX to pay a $14.4 million penalty and $2.1 million toward ASIC’s costs, effectively closing the regulator’s case weeks before Rosherville notified ASX that it was preparing to seek leave for derivative proceedings against former officials.

Why a shareholder derivative action matters

ASX’s Wednesday statement underscored that the proposed lawsuit is aimed at individuals rather than the exchange itself. It also made clear that the matter is at an early stage: the exchange did not specify which former officers or directors Rosherville plans to target, and it did not outline the precise alleged breaches or the remedies the claimant wants. Importantly, the court had not yet considered whether the proposed action can proceed.

Even so, the direction of the case highlights a question that investors and corporate governance observers often consider after large-scale technology undertakings fail: when a company admits misconduct or faces penalties tied to project communications, can shareholders translate that outcome into claims against the decision-makers who oversaw the effort?

As framed in ASX’s disclosure, Rosherville’s plan is grounded in Australia’s Corporations Act mechanism for statutory derivative actions, which can allow shareholders to pursue claims on behalf of the company, subject to court approval. That “permission” step is critical—because it means the court will examine whether the case is procedurally and substantively viable before any allegations against individuals are litigated.

What to watch next in the Federal Court

For market participants, the immediate variables are straightforward. The court will determine whether Rosherville’s application meets the statutory threshold for leave and whether the claims can move forward. ASX’s statement indicates that the exchange itself is not accused in the proposed action, but it has declined to offer details about the individuals or the alleged duty breaches. That information, if provided later in the process, could determine how investors interpret the scope of accountability sought by shareholders.

Beyond the legal mechanics, the broader watch point is how the case interacts with the earlier ASIC matter. While ASX’s admission of misleading conduct and the Federal Court’s penalty are part of the background, the shareholder action—if permitted—would focus on the alleged actions or omissions of former officers and directors. Readers should monitor any court filings that clarify the specific duties in question and how the shareholder claim relates to, or differs from, the conduct ASIC pursued.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw weakness around Wednesday’s Wall Street open as markets reacted to key US inflation data.

Key points:

• Bitcoin ignores good news around US inflation figures as it dips below $63,500.
• Fed rate-hike odds cool further as attention now switches to Thursday’s PPI numbers.
• Bitcoin is eroding $63,000 support, the latest market analysis warns.

Bitcoin falls despite US inflation data matching expectations

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping below $63,500, erasing the day’s gains.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US stocks were calm after the July print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations, at 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year.

“The index for shelter rose 0.1 percent in July, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly all items increase. The index for food also increased 0.1 percent over the month, as the index for food away from home increased 0.3 percent. In contrast, the energy index declined 1.5 percent in July,” an official release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported.

US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLS

While not repeating the surprise move to the downside seen in June, CPI inflation avoided injecting volatility into risk assets. Among safe havens, gold remained stable after reaching its highest levels in nine weeks on Tuesday.

Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum Bank, put the focus on expectations for future Federal Reserve policy changes. Cooling CPI combines with weak labor-market figures to potentially bolster the case for the Fed avoiding interest-rate hikes — an outcome that would benefit crypto and risk-asset liquidity conditions.

“An in-line CPI print after Friday’s –23k jobs report points to gradual cooling without a recession scare or a fresh hawkish re-pricing. September rate odds should stay roughly stable, leaving the macro backdrop for risk assets largely unchanged,” he said in emailed comments.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool saw 60% odds of the Fed holding rates at the current 3.50-3.75% level at its September meeting — up from 30% a month ago.

Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Thursday provides the week’s second US macro report with potential implications for market volatility in the form of July Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, which in June followed CPI in coming in below expectations.

“An in-line CPI print does not resolve much after Friday’s payrolls miss. The more interesting detail is that the Bitcoin options market is still charging a material premium for protection” Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, told Cointelegraph. “On the end-August expiry, downside strikes near $60,000 have been costing more than equivalent upside strikes near $70,000.”

“Tomorrow’s PPI is the next check on whether that premium starts to ease,” he added.

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BTC price $63,000 support “progressively weakening”

Discussing BTC price strength, trader and analyst Rekt Capital had more words of caution for Bitcoin bulls. In a post on X, he warned that each bounce from $63,000 was more and more lacking in trajectory. 

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“The progressively weakening support at ~$63k (orange) is clear. 6.27% –> 5.83% –> 3.18% –> and now 1.15% thus far,” he commented alongside an explanatory chart, adding:

“At some point the bounces will become so weak that the floor will simply break.”

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Rekt Capital previously warned that Bitcoin bear-market history was repeating as its 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $65,827, had become new resistance.

In an update on Wednesday, Bitfinex Alpha, the research arm of crypto exchange Bitfinex, reiterated the strength of the overhead resistance zone.

“Equities spent the past two weeks setting all-time highs (ATH) while bitcoin met resistance at the same $65,000-65,500 region level six times. Between 5 and 10 August, the market printed six consecutive daily highs above $65,000 but bitcoin has not recorded a single daily close above that level since 26 July,” it noted.

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