Bitcoin (BTC) declined into Friday’s Wall Street open as traders increasingly saw a BTC price breakdown next.

Key points:

• Bitcoin stays below $63,000, heading steadily closer to new August lows while US stocks build on record highs.
• Analysis says that $63,220 must be reclaimed by the weekly close to avoid a deeper rout.
• Markets look to PCE inflation data as the next key test for risk assets.

Bitcoin price sags with stocks at all-time highs

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD down 1.3% on the day at $62,570, near its lowest levels month-to-date.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Despite encouraging US inflation data lifting risk assets and reducing the odds of interest-rate hikes, Bitcoin failed to follow US equities, which closed Thursday’s session at all-time highs. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index were both green at the time of writing, up 0.11% and 0.14%, respectively.

BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting on Bitcoin price performance, trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that Sunday’s weekly close needed to be above $63,220.

“A Weekly Close below the orange level would probably set price up for a breakdown,” he wrote in a post on X.

The analyst noted that $63,000 was now failing as support after weakening throughout August, having previously noted that the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,827 was back as resistance, copying the 2022 bear market.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Cointelegraph previously reported on increasing chances of a long liquidation event for Bitcoin as it approaches an area of liquidity around $61,000 amid growing open interest (OI) in derivatives markets.

“Traders have added substantial risk, most of it long, into a market that shows no matching demand,” onchain analytics platform Glassnode summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain.

PCE in focus after Bitcoin ignores inflation relief

In its latest analysis, trading and investment company QCP Capital drew attention to crypto markets’ refusal to rally on improving US inflation conditions — a phenomenon it described as “increasingly important.”

Related: Bitcoin speculators keep BTC price ‘pinned’ below $68.7K: Glassnode

“Last week, BTC demonstrated resilience in absorbing several negative headlines without a sustained breakdown,” it wrote, adding:

“This week has reinforced the distinction between resilience and momentum: the range remains intact, but softer inflation data have so far generated only a muted response from crypto.”

QCP added that macro traders are now focused on the Aug. 26 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index release, known as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The index’s last print in July marked its first monthly decline since 2020, per data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

US PCE data percentage change (screenshot). Source: BEA

In the study, the researchers assembled a group of more than 9,300 people—some doctors, some other medical caregivers, some from the general population—and ran 14 different experiments on them. In one, 400 people were presented with two scenarios in which a friend visited a doctor complaining of menopause symptoms, including extreme fatigue, weight gain, and joint and muscle pain. In one of the scenarios, the doctor simply recommended medication to treat the symptoms. In the other, the doctor added, “I know this feels overwhelming, but I want to reassure you that these symptoms are normal…You could take daily prescription medication…or you can deal with these symptoms.”

A $116 million hardware wallet exploit has reopened one of Bitcoin’s oldest debates: Is holding your own keys worth the risk? Days later, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their strongest inflows since April, prompting Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas to wonder whether security scares could eventually push more investors away from self-custody and toward ETFs.

Elsewhere, Strategy is preparing to resume Bitcoin purchases after a rare bout of selling, Riot Platforms is reportedly turning its mining infrastructure into a $9 billion AI deal, and Trump Media is rethinking its crypto treasury strategy after a $238 million quarterly loss.

Strategy CEO says company will resume Bitcoin accumulation this year

Strategy CEO Phong Le said the company plans to resume Bitcoin accumulation later this year, seeking to reinforce its long-term strategy after a series of relatively small sales drew scrutiny over its once-firm “never sell” stance.

Le told FOX Business that Strategy bought roughly 175,000 BTC and sold about 7,000 BTC this year — about 25 times more buying than selling. The company now holds more than 840,000 BTC, making it the largest institutional holder, but has sold Bitcoin on four occasions since May, most recently unloading 1,690 BTC to support preferred dividends, buybacks and its dollar reserve.

Those sales have highlighted the competing demands facing Strategy as it balances its Bitcoin accumulation strategy with obligations to common and preferred shareholders. The treasury model has also come under pressure. According to Novaque Research, when companies trade below Bitcoin net asset value, raising capital becomes increasingly dilutive and the financing cycle harder to sustain.

Phong Le appearing on FOX Business. Source: FOX

Bitcoin ETF demand rebounds as self-custody risks come into focus

US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $1 billion in net inflows for the week, signaling renewed institutional demand even as Bitcoin’s price remains subdued and a major hardware wallet exploit puts fresh attention on the risks of self-custody.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said it was the third-best week since October, a period he described as Bitcoin’s “silent IPO,” a term popularized by investor Jordi Visser. The theory holds that early investors have been selling into growing ETF and institutional demand, creating enough supply to keep Bitcoin subdued despite fresh capital entering the market.

The rebound also followed a Coldcard hardware wallet exploit linked to faulty key generation that drained about $116 million in Bitcoin. Balchunas said the incident could ultimately bolster ETFs’ appeal among investors concerned about self-custody risks, pointing to post-hack inflows as a possible, though unproven, connection.

He cautioned that correlation does not imply causation, but added that “long-term I can’t imagine there aren’t some who migrate over.”

Source: Eric Balchunas

Anthropic reportedly struck a $9 billion compute deal with Bitcoin miner Riot

Anthropic reportedly struck a $9 billion deal with Riot Platforms for 191 megawatts of capacity from the Bitcoin miner’s Texas campus, highlighting how access to power is becoming increasingly valuable as AI data centers face capacity constraints.

Riot said it secured a 20-year agreement to supply 191 megawatts from its Rockdale campus to a “leading frontier AI” company, which Bloomberg identified as Anthropic. The deal follows Anthropic’s $19 billion TeraWulf data center lease and adds Riot to a growing list of Bitcoin miners expanding into AI, including Bitdeer, CleanSpark, MARA Holdings, Core Scientific, Hut 8 and IREN.

Riot shares fell 5.4% Monday before rising 21% overnight and are up roughly 50% year-to-date. The fourth-largest Bitcoin miner has a $7.33 billion market capitalization, while Bernstein said partnerships between AI companies and miners could help address the power crunch constraining data center expansion. 

Trump Media to revamp crypto treasury strategy after $238 million Q2 loss

Trump Media said it will revamp its digital asset treasury strategy after unrealized losses on crypto and securities helped push the company to a $238 million second-quarter net loss, highlighting the balance-sheet risks of corporate crypto holdings.

The company reported $190.4 million in unrealized losses across its digital assets, and pledged digital assets and equity securities in the second quarter. It held 9,477.16 Bitcoin as of June 30, down from 9,542.16 the prior quarter. In July, it sold $159.6 million in Bitcoin-related securities and used the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin, bringing its holdings to about 14,139 BTC worth $890.5 million by July 31.

Trump Media warned that generating additional income from its Bitcoin holdings could expose it to counterparty risk, particularly if a partner should default or become insolvent. In some cases, the company could be unable to recover Bitcoin committed under unsecured arrangements. It also plans to direct more resources to Truth Social, Truth+ and other media operations as part of a broader shift in capital allocation.

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The moves followed CoinDesk’s report late Thursday that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was set to further delay its anticipated “innovation exemption,” which is expected to make it easier for companies to offer trading in tokenized securities. Concerns from the White House and Wall Street over the proposal’s legal footing and potential market impact have held up the plan.

Adding to the uncertainty, the SEC canceled a meeting scheduled for Friday where commissioners planned to consider whether to propose new rules creating a tailored offering regime for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets.

The impact wasn’t limited to stocks. The innovation exemption had also been expected to provide some regulatory relief for trading through decentralized finance venues, meaning the delay reaches beyond publicly traded tokenization companies. Uniswap’s UNI (UNI), the native token of the decentralized exchange, fell 7% over the past 24 hours, making it the weakest performer in the CoinDesk 20 Index both Friday and this week.

For comparison, the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and bitcoin BTC$62,965.14 were all mostly flat during the day.

A ‘speed bump,’ not the end of the tokenization trade

The setback could stretch out the timeline for U.S. tokenization, but it doesn’t necessarily change the longer-term story, according to Owen Lau, managing director and senior analyst at Clear Street.

UK Reform leader Nigel Farage will face an investigation that had been briefly paused following his resignation from Parliament after winning a by-election on Thursday with no major party candidates participating.

As of Friday, the UK Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards website showed that Farage was currently under investigation for “failure to register an interest” related to the Reform leader receiving millions of dollars’ worth of donations and gifts from two figures tied to the crypto industry. The investigation was halted in July after Farage resigned as a member of Parliament, but resumed following his reelection as Clacton’s MP. 

The commission will probe cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harborne giving Farage $6.7 million as well as the Reform leader’s staff and security funded by George Cottrell, a convicted fraudster tied to a crypto casino. Should the investigation determine that Farage violated parliamentary rules, he faces a possible suspension from parliament, which could trigger another by-election.

Under UK parliamentary rules, new members must register all current financial interests within a month of their election, as well as any benefits received in the 12 months prior. Farage initially called Cottrell’s donation a “reward” for campaigning for Brexit and later described both men’s contributions as “gifts” given “on an unconditional basis.”

Source: Nigel Farage

The by-election triggered by Farage’s resignation in July saw the Reform leader winning with 63% of the vote, defeating satirical candidate Count Binface’s 27%. None of the other major parties participated in the race, which then-Labour leader and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called a “desperate stunt” by Farage. Andy Burnham has since become prime minister.

Related: Reform UK chair calls for probe into SBF-linked donation: Report

UK mulling permanent ban on crypto “gifts”?

Amid Farage’s political scandal, Labour lawmakers reportedly proposed that a moratorium on crypto donations implemented in March be made permanent as part of measures to address the potential influence of foreign actors.

According to the International Bar Association, unincorporated associations are allowed to give more than $675 directly to UK politicians, offering a loophole for companies with business in the country to be used as “conduits for foreign or dark money.”

Magazine: Inside the fake crypto startup that fooled North Korean IT workers

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Bitcoin traders are entering a tense stretch as leveraged long positions come under pressure, with onchain analytics suggesting that a broader liquidation “cleanout” may be starting. According to CryptoQuant analysis published Thursday, the interaction between Binance futures open interest and BTC/USD price has shifted in a way that often accompanies long positions being stopped out or liquidated.

At the same time, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warned that the conditions typically associated with a renewed Bitcoin bull market have not yet fallen into place—an important reminder for investors who may be betting on a quick rebound after consolidation.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant analysis links the latest BTC downside move with signs of leveraged long positions being flushed out via Binance open interest dynamics.
• The price-to-open-interest correlation reportedly fell to 0.25 after both price and open interest declined, consistent with weakening longs.
• CryptoQuant data previously showed Binance open interest rising while BTC traded in a narrow range, pointing to leverage building during consolidation.
• CoinGlass data showed $236 million in total cross-crypto liquidations over the prior 24 hours at the time of writing.
• Ki Young Ju says a sustained bull-market setup has not materialized yet, with key onchain indicators still in “bear” territory.

Binance open interest signals a leveraged long squeeze

CryptoQuant’s Thursday analysis, authored by community analyst “BorisD,” focuses on Binance open interest (OI) and its relationship with BTC price action. Open interest reflects total active derivative positions—longs and shorts combined—and is often used as a proxy for how much capital is committed to leveraged trading.

While BTC traded in a relatively tight range after June, CryptoQuant data showed Binance open interest climbing gradually, reaching $8.15 billion on Wednesday. In the analyst’s framing, this rise suggested futures activity was increasingly dominating while spot participation lagged, creating conditions where leveraged positioning could become vulnerable if price broke down.

As lower time frames started showing downside volatility, CryptoQuant said the price-to-OI relationship shifted into a “flux” state. The key idea: when price falls while open interest stays elevated or rises, it can indicate that traders are doubling down on exposure—sometimes turning into a rapid liquidation cascade if the move accelerates.

“Initially, as the price fell, the correlation shifted to the negative side, indicating that OI was rising despite declining prices,” the analyst wrote. “This showed a double-sided squeeze and [an] increasingly complex liquidity structure — driven by long positions trying to buy the dip on one end, and additional short positions entering the market on the other.”

CryptoQuant’s latest correlation reading reportedly came in at 0.25. In the analysis, that number is presented as evidence of declining long positions as BTC continues to move lower—supporting the view that the market is moving toward the “anticipated cleanout” phase.

From correlation shift to liquidation risk

CryptoQuant’s interpretation ties the recent correlation behavior to the fate of leveraged longs. The analyst said the “simultaneous drop in both price and OI” typically points to longs “giving up,” being stopped out, or getting liquidated—especially when downside volatility increases.

While open interest alone does not specify whether liquidations are primarily long- or short-driven, combining it with price direction can help traders anticipate where forced exits may concentrate. In this case, the analysis emphasizes long exposure vulnerability as BTC approaches lower levels seen earlier in August.

Market-wide liquidation pressure also appeared to be present. According to CoinGlass liquidation data (reported via a screenshot in the original analysis), total cross-crypto liquidations were $236 million over the prior 24 hours at the time of writing, underscoring that the broader ecosystem was not immune to leverage unwinds.

Why this matters after range trading

One reason the Binance OI story is taking center stage is that it follows a period of relatively tight trading. When price compresses, leverage can build quietly—especially if futures markets attract more participation than spot. CryptoQuant’s earlier observation that Binance OI increased while BTC stayed within a narrow range aligns with that pattern.

For investors and traders, the practical implication is that a breakout does not always arrive in a smooth, orderly way. When range-bound conditions end—particularly after rising open interest—liquidations can amplify the direction of the move as positions fail and traders scramble to reduce risk. CryptoQuant’s commentary suggests that this kind of acceleration may be underway as BTC/USD heads toward fresh month-to-date lows.

However, the analysis also implies uncertainty about timing and magnitude. The correlation metric provides a signal about what is likely happening in positioning, but it does not guarantee whether the market will continue sliding immediately, rebound quickly, or enter another brief consolidation before the next leg.

CryptoQuant CEO: bull-market conditions still not in place

Even if liquidation-driven volatility creates opportunities for tactical entries, sentiment cues from onchain leaders remain cautious. In his latest market commentary, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said that the “stars haven’t aligned” for a Bitcoin bull run yet.

Ju framed his view using a “basket of onchain indicators,” which he described as still residing in “bear” territory. Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph had similarly cited composite onchain metrics reaching prolonged “capitulation” conditions; one example referenced at the time was Glassnode’s view that Bitcoin is in its longest “capitulation” phase since the end of the last bear market in 2022.

Taken together, the message is two-sided: liquidation dynamics can force near-term downside and create mechanical market pressure, while the bigger question—whether investor behavior and onchain signals have shifted into a durable accumulation phase—remains unresolved.

Traders should watch whether Binance open interest continues to contract alongside price (which would be consistent with longs being removed) or whether OI stabilizes even as price tries to recover. At the same time, investors looking for a bull-market shift should monitor whether the onchain indicator “bear” conditions that Ki Young Ju referenced begin to improve, rather than relying solely on short-term volatility swings.