Anthropic could be valued at more than $2 trillion when it lists on the New York Stock Exchange this autumn, a level that would make the Claude developer’s flotation the largest in history, according to the Financial Times.

The artificial intelligence company filed to list in June and the float is expected in September or October. Senior executives have not yet set a target price, the FT reported.

A valuation above $2 trillion would carry Anthropic past SpaceX, which became a public company in June at a value of $1.75 trillion. Investors believe Anthropic’s lead in model capability, together with the speed at which businesses have adopted its tools, justifies the valuation, the FT reported.

The company’s annual recurring revenue, its preferred metric, which extrapolates a full-year figure from a single month’s performance, is expected to reach $100 billion to $120 billion by the end of the year. That compares with $48 billion in May and $9 billion at the start of the year.

Co-founded in 2021 by its chief executive, Dario Amodei, Anthropic secured a valuation of $965 billion in May, making it more valuable than the ChatGPT maker OpenAI. Its models have overtaken OpenAI’s among business users this year.

The run-up to the float has not been smooth. Anthropic this year became the first American company to be designated a supply chain risk by the US government, a ruling that restricts federal agencies and defence contractors from using its models. The company is challenging the designation.

Competition intensifies

Competitive pressure has also increased. Moonshot, a Chinese AI start-up, released its Kimi K3 model last month, which performed on a par with Anthropic’s models on many tasks at a fraction of the cost.

OpenAI has cut the price of its models, leading Anthropic to drop planned price increases for its own.

Azeem Azhar, founder of the research group Exponential View, said some of Anthropic’s recent actions had felt “reactive rather than strategic”.

“Its decision not to raise prices on models like Sonnet felt reactive given the market pressures. It’s facing all this competition from cheaper open-source models, as well as OpenAI’s own price cuts,” he said.

‘Cracks in the AI thesis’

Data from Ramp, a payments company that tracks corporate spending on AI, suggests Anthropic’s market share among US businesses has continued to grow, but that corporate adoption of Fable 5, its most expensive model, has been slow.

According to Ramp, Fable 5 made up only 6 per cent of the tokens businesses purchased from Anthropic over the past month. Despite being Anthropic’s most expensive model by far, it accounted for only 11.4 per cent of spending on the company’s models.

Ara Kharazian, lead economist at Ramp, said the data pointed to “cracks in the AI thesis”.

“With Fable 5, we’ve found a new upper bound for how much businesses are willing to spend on AI,” he said. “More performance is not worth the price tag.”

Azhar said Ramp’s data suggested that many businesses were struggling to identify clear use cases for the most powerful models.

“This technology has evolved faster than the capacity of customers to make sense of it,” he said. “Fable is expensive, but it’s also very powerful, which makes it hard to use. Ordinary companies cannot guarantee that if they’re spending $10 on a million tokens, then they’re getting $11 back. The business case is harder to make.”

MUMBAI: Friday’s central bank move to shorten the swap-support window for overseas deposits will likely prompt banks to raise short-term loans abroad and quicken deposit collection as regulatory latitude on the foreign currency non-resident-bank (FCNR-B) programme ends in less than two weeks, people aware of the developments said. Overall foreign borrowings by banks, however, will likely be lower than earlier estimates.

Bankers said some lenders now plan to borrow more short-term funds, possibly at a higher rate, to finance the promised leverage to FCNR(B) clients after the Reserve Bank of India advanced the deadline for swap support. These funds will have to be replaced with a long-term loan or bond later, leading to a temporary mismatch between banks’ foreign deposits and borrowings.

“The RBI has put banks in a tight spot. Banks had done roadshows, spent manhours on getting documentation ready and put a lot of investments into this. All this was planned with September 30 deadline in mind,” said a senior private-sector bank executive.

Since large funds can’t be secured for a longer tenure immediately, one option is to look for bridge loans.

“Not many banks have the capacity to raise a huge sum at such a short notice; so one option banks are exploring is to do a short-term bridge loan for now to ensure customers can be provided leverage on their deposits until the end of August. These short-term loans can be replaced with longer term borrowings later,” said the executive cited above.

‘Sufficient’
On Friday, the RBI advanced the deadline for mobilising FCNR-B deposits to August 31, from the originally announced September 30, citing higher-than-expected inflows. The RBI received $52.3 billion through FCNR(B) deposits until August 13, the latest update showed.

Banks can use the RBI’s special zero cost swap facility, until September 11, 2026, versus the earlier date of October 16.

Bankers said the early closure was surprising since governor Sanjay Malhotra himself had said a week ago that the central bank neither planned to prematurely close the swap window because of robust inflows nor had it received any proposal to extend the timeline beyond the announced deadline.

“As of now, there is no proposal under consideration to close the scheme prematurely,” Malhotra had said after the monetary policy announcement on August 5. The scheme’s curtailment could expose lenders to liquidity mismatches.

Late Entrants
“Some banks that were late in garnering dollars will probably stop in their tracks. Others may choose not to push for more dollars, while some with customer commitments will look for short-term funds immediately – possibly at a higher cost,” said another private-sector banker. “This will create mismatches in the short term, which is not healthy.”

For instance, ICICI Bank’s $1.45 billion, four-year loan launched last week is currently under syndication. This loan also has a greenshoe option allowing ICICI Bank to upsize the total amount it wants to raise. The bank may want to wrap up the syndication early and not look at pushing the greenshoe.

Similarly, Punjab National Bank‘s $1 billion loan, which went into syndication in the last week of July, could be closed early as the bank scampers to get funds within the shorter deadline.

“Some mid-to small-sized banks, which had planned debut bond sales overseas, may now have to look at alternative sources. They will have to curtail their FCNR (B) targets because it does not look like the RBI needs more dollars,” said a senior executive with a foreign bank.

Bankers said the RBI’s decision has exposed them to risks of higher payouts immediately. There is also no certainty that whenever they tap the overseas markets, to match their three- to five-year FCNR(B) deposit liabilities, the US treasury, global rates or geopolitics will be favourable.

“Until last week, the RBI was in touch with banks pushing for more dollars. If dollar flows were too heavy, then there are ways to use them. Just open a special window for oil companies, for instance,” said a third private sector bank executive.

Bankers said by closing the scheme early and at a short notice, the RBI would be indicating it has enough muscle to protect the rupee.

This article was written by

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Iress Limited 2026 Half Year Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to hand the conference over to Andrew Russell, Iress CEO and Managing Director. Please go ahead.

Andrew Russell
Group CEO, MD & Director

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I’m Andrew Russell, Group CEO and Managing Director, and I’m joined by Cameron Williamson, our Chief Financial Officer. Today, we’ll take you through our first half performance, updated FY ’26 guidance and the progress we’re making against the strategic priorities we outlined at our AGM. Most importantly, we’ll show how disciplined execution is building a stronger, higher-quality software business and positioning Iress for sustainable long-term value creation.

There are 5 key messages for our shareholders today. First, we have delivered a solid first half result with materially improved earnings quality, driven by disciplined execution, a simpler operating model and continued margin expansion. Second, we have continued to simplify the business, progressed our business efficiency program ahead of plan and strengthened the balance sheet. This provides greater financial flexibility to self-fund disciplined investment in product evolution.

Third, our focus has now shifted to evolving our products. Having mobilized our partnership with Thoughtworks in April, we are now embedding AI into our product and engineering strategy and improving our delivery velocity. Fourth, our focus is on building a higher-quality software business with better products, stronger customer relationships and more consistent commercial execution. We

What is it like to buy a private jet and then lose so much money that you have to sell it? Or take a $1 million European vacation to celebrate a deal closing? I asked the people who have lived it. 

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I witnessed off-camera interactions with assistants, friends and family. We also had some fun. I quizzed them on whether their fortunes, which ranged from tens of millions of dollars to billions, were driven by luck or skill.