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How bitcoin and gold went from a slump to an MVP week in just a few days

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How bitcoin and gold went from a slump to an MVP week in just a few days
Bitcoin and gold shot higher this week, with both getting a boost from some frantic action surrounding the bond market, and the cryptocurrency also benefiting from activity in Washington.

Bitcoin had dropped from a January high of around $95,000 to below $60,000 at the end of June. Investors shied away from speculative assets earlier in the year and crypto supporters were concerned about the lack of movement on proposed regulation of the industry. On Friday, bitcoin rose above $77,000.

Gold hit a high above $5,300 in January but dropped to around $4,000 in June as rising rates made interest-bearing investments more attractive. Gold rose to $4,661 on Friday.The first jolt arrived Wednesday when the Treasury Department announced plans to significantly increase its buybacks of long-term Treasurys, or government debt. On the same day, President Donald Trump, who made about $1.2 billion last year from various crypto holdings, urged Congress to move quickly on crypto legislation.

There was an almost immediate reaction, which included a dollar sell-off and a jump in the value of gold and bitcoin as investors moved toward alternative assets.

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How these two investments caught fire can be understood in the context of several developments this week.
The Treasury stepped into the bond market – forcefullyIn a surprise announcement Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department said that it would at least double the size of its planned purchases of longer-term government debt. The maneuver was intended to calm bond markets after a sustained sell-off, meaning investors were asking for higher yields to lend money to the U.S., which investors suddenly viewed as riskier

That’s because while the Treasury intervention worked, at least for a short period, it also raised questions about whether the government is trying to push borrowing costs lower despite inflationary pressures. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is attempting to lower long-term borrowing costs, a move that can put upward pressure on inflation at a time when inflation is already elevated. Bessent’s maneuver could handcuff the Federal Reserve, which fights inflation by raising interest rates.

Debt, inflation, and the “debasement trade” heat up

Then there’s the national debt, which surpassed a record $40 trillion on the same day that the Treasury’s actions unfolded. The milestone figure was recorded just five months after the U.S. hit a record $39 trillion debt in March. It reached $38 trillion five months before that, in October.

There is already a lot of anxiety over inflation, particularly because of the conflict in Iran and soaring energy prices. If yields on U.S. bonds are not truly reflecting risk, you can often see that play out in the value of the U.S. currency, which took a significant downward swoop Wednesday.

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So where does the money that was invested in the dollar or Treasurys go? This week, it appears to have been funneled into what is known as the “debasement trade,” when investors flood into alternative assets such as gold, which rose more than 2% Wednesday. The debasement trade now includes bitcoin. Bitcoin jumped more than 20% this week.

Crypto had a very good week in Washington

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump, who banked nearly $1.2 billion from his crypto businesses last year, held a crypto currency conference at the White House where he called on Congress to pass the crypto-friendly Clarity Act, saying that it would “keep us ahead of China, keep us ahead of everyone else.”

Trump then yielded the floor to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Mike Selig, who vowed to “use every tool available” to advance Trump’s agenda.

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Selig’s comments came ahead of a CFTC meeting Thursday examining ways the agency can use its existing authority to ease crypto rules. A day earlier, other regulators proposed rules making it easier for crypto companies and projects to raise money from the public.

Since taking office, Trump has pushed policies friendly to the crypto industry and reversed a Biden administration regulatory crackdown.

Bitcoin’s big squeeze sent prices even higher

Bitcoin can sometimes get a bump when the U.S. dollar is on the ropes as investors try to unload the U.S. currency. But you don’t typically see the kind of related movement that was observed with bitcoin this week.

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The price of bitcoin had been stuck between $62,000 and $67,000 for weeks. Investors seized on that weakness, many placing bets that the cryptocurrency would be stuck in that range for some time to come.

However, on the day the Treasury announced its buybacks, Treasury yields fell, as did the dollar, and bitcoin blasted through that upper level of $67,000.

The Treasury’s actions negatively affected the money investors could make on U.S. bonds and the dollar, and boosted the value of bitcoin. That meant that many investors who had shorted bitcoin, or bet that its price would remain subdued, were forced to close their positions as bitcoin surged. Closing those bearish positions required buying back the digital asset, adding even more upward pressure to bitcoin’s price.

By Friday, more than $4 billion in bearish crypto positions had been liquidated during the rally, according to CoinGlass, which tracks cryptocurrency derivatives markets.

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And because bitcoin was already rising, those forced purchases added fuel to the rally, potentially triggering still more liquidations as prices climbed.

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United needs to decide what to do with its old Boeing 737 Max 10 seats

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United needs to decide what to do with its old Boeing 737 Max 10 seats

A Boeing 737 MAX 10 fuselage is pictured during the opening ceremony for the company’s new North Line assembly line, which will produce 737 MAX aircraft, at the Boeing Everett Factory in Everett, Washington, on July 10, 2026.

Jason Redmond | Afp | Getty Images

In August 2018, the then-president and now CEO of United Airlines Scott Kirby told a room of reporters at an aviation conference in Denver about the airline’s big plans for the new Boeing 737 Max 10: lie-flat, premium seats and a host of profitable, transcontinental routes.

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The plane was supposed to start flying in 2020.

Hundreds of those seats have been in storage because its certification — which was expected more than six years ago — is far behind schedule. Now, Boeing and many of its customers expect the company to win federal approval for the plane, the largest in the bestselling 737 Max family, soon, so United has to decide what to do with all those seats.

“We got a bunch of lie-flat seats that we don’t know what to do with,” Kirby told CNBC during an interview earlier this month at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey. “They don’t fit on other airplanes.”

United hasn’t disclosed the layout it will use on the planes, or where it will fly them. The airline set its earlier plans for the Boeing 737 Max 10 before it even offered a premium economy section.

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The delays for both the newly approved Boeing 737 Max 7, the smallest model, and the yet-to-be-certified Max 10 came after the manufacturer had to redesign an anti-icing system. Boeing was also dealing with increased scrutiny after years of safety and manufacturing crises.

Boeing won approval for the 737 Max 7 earlier this month, with big customer Southwest Airlines expecting to fly them sometime in the first half of 2027.

United pivoted because of the Boeing delays and recently outfitted a subfleet of its Airbus A321neo narrow-body aircraft with 20 of the newly designed Polaris suites, premium economy options and other new seats as part of the industry’s race to add high-yielding seating on its planes. It’s dubbed the subfleet the “Coastliner” for transcontinental routes.

But the dimensions and requirements aren’t the same on both planes, leaving United with a decision on what its interiors will look like.

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It expects to get the first Boeing Max 10s in summer 2027. It has 167 of the aircraft on order, according to its most recent quarterly filing.

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Market Trading Guide: Jayaswal Neco Industries among 2 stock recommendations for Monday

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Market Trading Guide: Jayaswal Neco Industries among 2 stock recommendations for Monday
Elevated global bond yields continue to cause concern in the market. Analysts say the US Treasury’s recent move to ease bond yields failed to provide lasting comfort, given surging crude prices and persistent inflation fears. Domestically, the RBI’s hawkish meeting minutes have pushed India’s 10-year yield to a two-month high, driven by local inflation risks and tighter liquidity. Meanwhile, recent services PMI data shows domestic resilience amid an uncertain global environment.

Here are two stock recommendations for Friday:


Jayaswal Neco Industries – Buy | Buying Zone: Rs 100-101 | Stop-loss: Rs 95 | Target: Rs 110

Strong decisive breakout above horizontal resistance at Rs 96 with surging volume. The price has reclaimed all short-term EMAs (20, 50 and 100), and RSI is expanding towards 68, confirming fresh bullish momentum for a continuation towards Rs 110.

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(Virat Jagad, Senior Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)



Alkyl Amines – Buy | Buying Zone: Rs 2,050-2,060 | Stop-loss: Rs 1,975 | Target: Rs 2,250

Clean breakout from consolidation above the Rs 2,000 resistance level on strong volume. Trading safely above all key moving averages (20, 50, 100 and 200 EMA), with RSI strengthening near 66, signalling uptrend momentum towards Rs 2,250.(Virat Jagad, Senior Technical Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio)


(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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The Basis Trade: Is The Bond Market Signal Distorted?

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The Basis Trade: Is The Bond Market Signal Distorted?

After having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; I have pretty much “been there and done that” at one point or another. I am currently a partner at RIA Advisors in Houston, Texas. The majority of my time is spent analyzing, researching and writing commentary about investing, investor psychology and macro-views of the markets and the economy. My thoughts are not generally mainstream and are often contrarian in nature but I try an use a common sense approach, clear explanations and my “real world” experience in the process. I am a managing partner of RIA Pro, a weekly subscriber based-newsletter that is distributed to individual and professional investors nationwide. The newsletter covers economic, political and market topics as they relate to your money and life. I also write a daily blog which is read by thousands nationwide from individuals to professionals at www.realinvestmentadvice.com.

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Citi expects Nvidia stock to trade higher post earnings

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Citi expects Nvidia stock to trade higher post earnings

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Zillow Warns Homebuyers It Now Takes Nearly 15 Years to Save for and Break Even on a Home

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Mortgage

Homebuyers across the United States now face a significantly longer financial timeline before purchasing a home makes more sense than renting, according to a new analysis from real estate technology company Zillow, which found that a median-income household needs nearly 15 years to both save for a down payment and financially break even on homeownership.

According to Zillow, a household setting aside 10% of the median income needs 8.5 years to reach a 20% down payment on a typical single-family home nationally, followed by another 6.2 years before buying becomes more cost-effective than continuing to rent. Combined, that puts the total national breakeven timeline at just under 15 years, a figure Zillow arrived at by measuring two distinct phases: the time required to save for a down payment, and the additional time needed to recover the upfront costs of homeownership relative to renting.

“Buying a home is a financial commitment measured not just in dollars, but in years,” Zillow wrote in its analysis. “Whether to buy or rent is a complex question that depends on where you want to live and your lifestyle preferences, in addition to your financial situation.”

Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow, said the breakeven timeline offers homebuyers a more complete picture of a housing market than list prices alone can provide. “The common wisdom is that saving early to buy a home is the smart financial move, but the reality is more nuanced,” Ng said. “The breakeven number tells you something about a market that a price tag alone doesn’t.” Ng encouraged prospective buyers to factor that longer horizon directly into their decision-making process. “Buyers should think about not just when they can afford to buy, but how long they’d need to stay before owning makes more financial sense than renting,” she said. “Homeownership comes with equity and stability, while renting offers flexibility and freedom from maintenance bills and emergencies.”

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Zillow’s analysis found dramatic variation in breakeven timelines depending on location, driven largely by differences in local rent trends and home price appreciation. In Austin, Texas, a household saving for a down payment reaches the 20% threshold in roughly eight years, faster than the national pace, but then faces an 18-year wait before homeownership becomes financially advantageous compared with renting, a delay Zillow attributed in part to recently declining local rental costs. Miami tells a different story: buyers there spend roughly five additional years saving for a down payment compared with Austin, but reach the breakeven point in about half the time once they do purchase, meaning Miami homebuyers ultimately come out ahead financially roughly three years sooner than their counterparts in Austin.

The report identified purchasing a starter home, defined by Zillow as a property in the bottom third of regional home values, as one of the clearest ways buyers can shorten their overall timeline. On a national level, Zillow found that buying an entry-level home rather than renting a typical apartment cuts the total combined savings-and-breakeven timeline roughly in half, to just 7.2 years.

However, Zillow’s data suggests many buyers remain reluctant to take on properties requiring significant renovation work despite the potential savings such properties often offer. “However, with the cost of homeownership this high, buyers have signaled they do not want an expensive project,” Zillow wrote. According to the company’s research, turnkey homes, those ready for immediate move-in without renovation, sell for 2.9% more than expected, while homes noted as recently remodeled in their listing descriptions sell for 2.2% more than comparable homes without such renovations mentioned. By contrast, fixer-upper homes sell for 14% less than comparable move-in-ready properties. Zillow cautioned that while not every starter home requires renovation, buyers considering a fixer-upper should carefully account for the full cost of ownership, including the likelihood of future repairs.

The current, extended homebuying timeline represents a substantial deterioration compared with conditions before the pandemic. Zillow found that today’s national breakeven timeline runs nearly four years longer than the 11-year wait homebuyers faced back in July 2019, underscoring how significantly affordability has eroded over the intervening years.

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Zillow attributed much of the current affordability crisis to a persistent nationwide housing shortage, which the company estimates stands at 4.7 million homes. According to the analysis, metropolitan areas with the largest housing shortages tend to also carry the longest breakeven timelines for prospective buyers. Los Angeles, for example, has the second-largest housing deficit in the country at nearly 345,000 homes, translating into a breakeven timeline of almost 38 years for buyers in that market.

To address the shortage, Zillow has advocated for a range of policy changes aimed at lowering construction costs and encouraging new housing development, including updating local zoning laws to allow for higher-density housing, simplifying municipal permit approval processes, and expanding access to financing options for manufactured homes.

Zillow’s warning arrives as mortgage rates have shown modest signs of easing in recent weeks. Freddie Mac reported Aug. 20 that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.65%, down slightly from 6.67% the previous week. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined this week averaging 6.65%,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, adding that Freddie Mac emphasized borrowers can still save meaningfully by comparison shopping among lenders for the best available rate. Separately, Mortgage News Daily reported a daily 30-year fixed rate of 6.77% as of Aug. 21, with the outlet’s Matthew Graham noting that recent bond market volatility was unrelated to the U.S. Treasury Department’s mid-week announcement regarding its expanded bond buyback program, characterizing the earlier market reaction to that news as having been “overdone.”

With economic data expected to pick up significantly in the coming week, including anticipated remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the central bank’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, mortgage rates and broader housing affordability trends are likely to remain closely watched by prospective buyers weighing whether current market conditions justify committing to the increasingly lengthy financial timeline Zillow’s analysis has identified as the new reality facing most Americans looking to transition from renting to homeownership.

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Castle Biosciences surges 67% after InvestingPro Fair Value call

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Castle Biosciences surges 67% after InvestingPro Fair Value call

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Thailand Ready to Host 2026 IMF World Bank Meetings

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Thailand Ready to Host 2026 IMF World Bank Meetings

The Bank of Thailand is ready to host the 2026 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, expecting 15,000-20,000 participants and showcasing Thai culture, benefiting tourism and economic cooperation.


Key Points

  • The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is prepared to host the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank, expecting 15,000 to 20,000 global participants, including finance ministers and economic experts.
  • The event will highlight Thai culture with local cuisine and traditional textiles, and the BOT encourages public engagement to welcome visitors.
  • Hosting the meetings is anticipated to provide significant economic opportunities for Thailand, particularly benefiting the tourism sector and showcasing the country’s role in international economic cooperation.

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has affirmed that the country is fully prepared to host the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group, with between 15,000 and 20,000 participants and accompanying delegates expected from around the world.

BOT Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chai-anant said the meetings will welcome finance ministers, central bank governors, and leading economic and financial experts. The expected turnout would make the gathering one of the largest IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings held outside Washington, D.C.

Thai culture will feature throughout the event, including local cuisine for delegates and traditional textiles from different regions used at the venues. Chayawadee also encouraged the public to welcome international visitors and take pride in Thailand’s role as host.

The BOT expects the meetings to provide economic opportunities for Thailand, including benefits for the tourism sector, allowing the country to demonstrate its role in international economic cooperation. 

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Source : Thailand Ready to Host 2026 IMF World Bank Meetings

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Altria: Attractive Yield, But I'm Still Waiting For A Better Entry

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Altria: Attractive Yield, But I'm Still Waiting For A Better Entry

Altria: Attractive Yield, But I'm Still Waiting For A Better Entry

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Equity mutual funds swing up to 8% last week. Check top 5 gainers and losers

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The Economic Times

Equity mutual funds swing up to 8% last week. Check top 5 gainers and losers

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Welsh Government reviewing how it funds local authorities

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It has commissioned the Wales Centre for Public Policy to undertake the review

Minister for Local Government, Housing and Planning, Siân Gwenllian.(Image: Richard Williams)

The formula used to distribute Welsh Government funding to local authorities is being reviewed.

The Plaid Cymru administration has commissioned the Wales Centre for Public Policy (WCPP) with work already underway to update the evidence base underpinning the formula, with initial focus on education and personal social services, which together account for nearly three-quarters of the funding distribution.

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Assessment will be made of additional costs arising from sparsity, rurality, deprivation and demographic change. WCPP will also review funding distribution methods used across the UK and internationally.

The Welsh Government said that given the scale and complexity of the review, the earliest point at which any changes could be implemented would be for the 2028-29 local government settlement.

The review was discussed with local government in the finance sub-group, which includes leaders from local authorities and the Welsh Local Government Association, last month The group was provided with an update on progress to date, the proposed scope of the review, and proposals for future work. The group supported the direction of travel.

Minister for Local Government, Housing and Planning, Siân Gwenllian, said: “Local authorities across Wales are on the front line of delivering the services people rely on every day, and it’s right that the way we fund them is based on evidence and keeps pace with how our communities are changing.

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“That’s why I’ve been clear that this review must be done in partnership with local government, and I’m pleased colleagues on the Finance Sub-Group have supported the work so far.

“This is about making sure that funding reflects the real pressures faced by different parts of Wales, whether that’s a sparsely populated rural authority or an area with a growing and ageing population.”

Dr Helen Tilley, director of policy and practice (Welsh Government) at the Wales Centre for Public Policy said:“We are delighted to have been invited to provide evidence for this critically important review, particularly by considering how the experiences of other countries may be relevant to Wales.

“The thorough nature of the review is commensurate with the significant impact that the revised formula will have on the day-to-day lives of people across Wales, both directly through the provision of public services and more broadly through its influence on labour market participation and, in turn, the Welsh economy.”

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A range of analytical improvements are being considered as part of the review, including:

Development of new sparsity and dispersion measures, including those derived from travel-time data, to better capture the costs of delivering services in rural and remote areas;development of school-level and pupil-based indicators to better reflect need within the education system;

Engagement with counterparts in Scotland on approaches to updating needs-based distributions; and

Consideration of the implications of an ageing population for patterns of need and service demand, particularly within personal social services.

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