Alibaba reported its first-quarter results on 20 August, revealing a mixed picture for investors. Revenue increased by 9%, driven by accelerating growth in its cloud computing and AI businesses, but net profit fell by nearly three-quarters as capital expenditure on AI infrastructure surged.

Management said it expects these investments to reach break-even within the next three years. Meanwhile, free cash flow turned negative as spending on computing capacity continued to rise. To finance the further development of its full-stack AI ecosystem, Alibaba also completed a new share offering on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this week, raising approximately $10.2 billion. Investors responded cautiously to the combination of weaker earnings and equity dilution.

Technical Analysis of Alibaba

The four-hour chart shows a clear short-term uptrend that began in late July, with the share price climbing from around $92.00 to the $133.00 resistance area.

The stock is now attempting to break below its ascending trendline after buyers failed to maintain momentum following the test of the recent highs. On 21 August, the price moved beneath the lower boundary of the current market profile at $121.50 on exceptionally high trading volume. If sellers extend the decline, the next significant support lies near $113.00.

Should the move prove to be a false breakout, attention will shift to a cluster of key resistance levels within the market profile. The Point of Control (POC) at $128.50 and the upper profile boundary at $129.50 sit very close together, creating a potentially strong resistance zone. Above this area, the major resistance remains at $133.00.

The RSI + MAs indicator currently stands at 41, 48 and 51. RSI has slipped below the neutral zone, while both moving averages remain near the middle of their range, suggesting that bearish momentum has yet to receive full confirmation.

Key Takeaways

Alibaba’s disappointing profit performance and sizeable share issuance have weighed on sentiment following its failed attempt to establish itself above $130.00. The stock’s next move is likely to depend on whether investors continue to focus on near-term earnings pressure or place greater value on the company’s long-term AI growth strategy.

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The euro and pound have pulled back from their recent highs as the US dollar regained ground following a batch of stronger-than-expected economic data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year, compared with expectations of 3.6%, while the quarterly core PCE reading came in at 3.6%, above the forecast of 3.4%.

The dollar also received support from stronger consumer activity. Personal spending increased by 0.2%, versus expectations of 0.1%, while personal income rose by 0.4%, double the forecast of 0.2%. At the same time, revised US GDP growth for the second quarter came in at 1.5%, matching market expectations.

Taken together, the figures point to continued resilience in the US economy and reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve shifting rapidly towards a more accommodative monetary-policy stance.

Market attention is now turning to fresh US data and the Jackson Hole symposium. Initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 208,000, up slightly from 206,000 a week earlier, while the trade deficit is forecast to narrow modestly to $100.8 billion from $101.4 billion previously.

Following the latest strong US figures, investors will also be paying close attention to comments from Fed officials on inflation and the outlook for interest rates. Resilient economic data combined with hawkish signals from Jackson Hole could provide further support for the dollar, while signs of a cooling labour market or a more cautious Fed tone could put renewed pressure on the US currency.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has made several unsuccessful attempts to establish itself above 1.1700, resulting in the formation of a doji pattern. From a technical perspective, this could signal a corrective decline towards the 1.1620–1.1580 area.

The bearish scenario would be invalidated by a firm move and close above 1.1700.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence;
• today at 13:00 (GMT+3): total number of unemployed people in France;
• today at 15:00 (GMT+3): Jackson Hole Symposium.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is showing signs of a potential reversal, with a “tower” pattern taking shape. If the formation is confirmed, the pair could decline towards 1.3530–1.3560.

A sustained break below this zone could trigger a deeper correction towards 1.3440–1.3480. Conversely, renewed dollar weakness could allow GBP/USD to recover above 1.3600.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims;
• today at 23:30 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve balance sheet;
• tomorrow at 16:45 (GMT+3): Chicago PMI.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD have retreated from their recent highs after stronger US economic data allowed the dollar to recover some of its recent losses.

Whether the current correction develops further will depend on incoming economic data from the US and euro area, as well as signals from Federal Reserve officials. Resilient economic figures and a hawkish tone from Jackson Hole could support a further dollar recovery, while signs of a weakening labour market or more cautious Fed commentary could once again put pressure on the US currency.

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Mastercard will sponsor a 36-hour XRP Ledger hackathon scheduled for Oct. 24–25 in New York, XRPL Commons announced on Aug. 26.

The event will bring developers together to build and launch applications before Ripple’s Swell conference. Mastercard’s sponsorship confirms its involvement in the developer event but does not represent a new payment product or XRPL deployment.

Bitcoin’s long-term investment case is gaining support from rising U.S. debt and persistent fiscal deficits, according to BlackRock global head of digital assets Robbie Mitchnick.

Mitchnick said in an Aug. 26 interview that renewed concern about government borrowing was leading some investors to consider assets outside the sovereign monetary system. U.S. gross federal debt reached approximately $40.05 trillion on Aug. 18, according to the Treasury Department’s dataset.

Bitcoin benefits when fiscal concerns return

Mitchnick argued that government debt and budget deficits are becoming major market concerns. Investors worried about the purchasing power of fiat currencies may respond by increasing exposure to scarce assets.

“Debt and deficit levels are a major concern for markets,” Mitchnick said, adding that renewed attention to those risks could support “assets like Bitcoin and gold.”

His remarks present an investment thesis rather than proof that federal borrowing caused Bitcoin’s latest rally. Bitcoin also benefited from ETF inflows, short covering, a weaker dollar and changes in Treasury bond markets.

The cryptocurrency posted its strongest three-day advance since 2023 during the previous week. Bitcoin rose from the low-$60,000 range to nearly $80,000 before giving back part of those gains.

Stocks struggled and bond trading became volatile during part of the same period. Mitchnick said Bitcoin’s ability to rise under those conditions reflected its “distinct nature” as an emerging store of value.

Federal debt passes $40 trillion

Treasury data showed gross federal debt crossing $40 trillion less than five months after reaching $39 trillion. The total includes approximately $32.3 trillion held by the public and around $7.8 trillion in intragovernmental holdings.

The debt has more than doubled since 2017, when it stood near $19.95 trillion. The increase spans both Republican and Democratic administrations and includes pandemic spending, tax policies, mandatory programs and continuing budget shortfalls.

The Congressional Budget Office projects a $1.9 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026. Under current law, the annual deficit could expand to $3.1 trillion by 2036, reaching 6.7% of gross domestic product.

Net interest spending reached approximately $970 billion during fiscal 2025, according to the government’s financial report. Higher interest rates make refinancing the existing debt more expensive, potentially adding to future borrowing requirements.

These figures support Mitchnick’s focus on fiscal sustainability, but they do not guarantee currency depreciation or higher Bitcoin prices. Fiscal policy, economic growth, inflation and demand for Treasury securities all influence the eventual outcome.

BlackRock sees Bitcoin differently from risk assets

BlackRock has previously described Bitcoin as a scarce, decentralized monetary alternative with return drivers that can differ from those of stocks and bonds.

As crypto.news reported, BlackRock said Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate institutional demand. Mitchnick characterized Bitcoin as “digital gold” while describing Ethereum as a technology-focused investment.

Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional markets remains inconsistent. It has sometimes moved alongside technology stocks during periods of abundant liquidity and fallen sharply when investors reduce risk.

The asset also remains far more volatile than gold. A fiscal hedge can lose value over short periods even when government debt continues rising, making the thesis more relevant to long-term allocation than immediate price forecasting.

Bernstein recently presented a related argument. Its analysts said debt concerns could accelerate Bitcoin’s recovery, although their price targets remain forecasts rather than confirmed outcomes.

CLARITY Act matters more beyond Bitcoin

Mitchnick said the pending CLARITY Act could provide additional upside across cryptocurrency markets, but investors were not necessarily including passage in their base expectations.

“Markets in general and a lot of the participants around the ecosystem are seeing the regulatory clarity as further potential upside, but not necessarily banking on it,” Mitchnick said.

He added that he did not have a view on the latest state of the legislative process. BlackRock continues watching developments in Congress.

Bitcoin already has a comparatively established U.S. regulatory position. The Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January 2024, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has long treated Bitcoin as a commodity.

Market structure legislation could have a larger effect on decentralized finance, trading platforms and tokens whose regulatory classifications remain disputed. Those areas need clearer rules governing registration, custody and agency oversight.

For Bitcoin, Mitchnick’s argument places fiscal policy ahead of cryptocurrency legislation. The next tests will come from federal deficit data, Treasury borrowing plans, long-term bond yields, ETF flows and Bitcoin’s behavior during renewed market stress.

Ripple said on Aug. 25 that its RLUSD stablecoin crossed $2 billion in market capitalization during the previous week, less than two years after its December 2024 launch.

Close to $1 billion of the circulating supply had been issued on the XRP Ledger, according to Ripple’s official statement. CoinGecko subsequently placed RLUSD’s market capitalization at approximately $2.11 billion, based on a circulating supply of about 2.1 billion tokens.

Because RLUSD seeks to maintain a $1 price, its market capitalization closely tracks its circulating token supply. The milestone therefore reflects additional issuance rather than price appreciation.

StarkWare researcher Avihu Levy says he has successfully carried out an experimental, quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction directly on the Bitcoin mainnet—an onchain test intended to validate a proposal originally outlined earlier this year. StarkWare described the transfer as the first transaction of its kind, using Levy’s “Quantum Safe Bitcoin” (QSB) scheme.

According to StarkWare, the transaction was confirmed Wednesday in Bitcoin block 964,199. Mempool data shows the spend used a 10,000-satoshi output protected by Levy’s QSB authorization, while MARA Pool mined the block after receiving the transaction via its Slipstream service. The test is notable not because it changed Bitcoin’s consensus rules, but because it demonstrates a quantum-resistant spending construction that can be executed within existing Bitcoin infrastructure.

Key takeaways

• StarkWare reports an onchain QSB transaction was confirmed in Bitcoin block 964,199, marking a move from theory to a mainnet demonstration.
• QSB is designed to be quantum-resistant without requiring a Bitcoin protocol upgrade, relying instead on transaction-level cryptographic construction.
• The computation required to create QSB transactions remains expensive, with StarkWare estimating the final test cost in the low hundreds of dollars (around $150–$200).
• QSB transactions are treated as nonstandard by Bitcoin Core relay policies, meaning typical nodes may not propagate them automatically.
• Bitcoin developers are already considering protocol-level changes, including proposals such as BIP-360, that aim to reduce quantum exposure for specific spend paths.

From proposal to a confirmed mainnet spend

Levy’s QSB work combines two cryptographic ideas: hash-based one-time signatures and computational searches that bind an authorization to a specific transaction. StarkWare’s research framing is that this construction should prevent forgery even if a future quantum computer undermines the elliptic-curve cryptography used by Bitcoin today.

The onchain test matters because it shows that this specific quantum-resistant mechanism can be expressed under Bitcoin’s current consensus rules—at least in a way that results in a valid, confirmable spend. StarkWare said the demonstration was carried out without a protocol change, moving the project from “paper and code” into a working mainnet transaction.

Levy’s paper and associated code repository describe QSB in more detail, including how the one-time signature and transaction-bound authorization work together to create the security target against quantum-enabled forgery.

Cost and practicality: compute-heavy by design

Quantum-resistant cryptography usually involves a tradeoff: stronger security against future threats often comes with higher computational and operational costs. StarkWare’s spokesperson Nathan Jeffay told Cointelegraph that completing the tested transaction cost “low hundreds of dollars,” estimating roughly $150 to $200. StarkWare also said the overall process involved hours of computation.

This echoes earlier expectations around QSB’s resource intensity. In April, Levy introduced QSB and estimated then that generating a transaction could require between $75 and $150 in GPU computation. In the current test, StarkWare’s final estimate suggests the method is feasible for experimentation, but far from something that can scale as a default spending option for everyday users.

Levy’s approach has also been framed as a “last-resort measure” rather than a full replacement for protocol-level improvements. That distinction is important for readers trying to understand what QSB is solving: not immediate mass adoption, but a credible bridge for security concerns while Bitcoin’s broader roadmap for post-quantum resilience is still being discussed.

Why nodes may not relay QSB transactions by default

Beyond cost, QSB faces a practical integration barrier: Bitcoin Core’s default relay policy. Levy’s repository classifies QSB transactions as nonstandard, and StarkWare said this means ordinary nodes would not automatically propagate them before confirmation.

In other words, a QSB transaction may not travel through the usual network “gossip” path. For the confirmed test, the transaction was submitted through MARA’s Slipstream service so it could reach miners despite its nonstandard status.

This is a reminder that even when a cryptographic scheme is valid under consensus, network policy still shapes real-world usability. Until relay behavior changes—or until spending routes are standardized—quantum-resistant transactions may remain mainly the domain of researchers and specialized operators.

Protocol upgrades are still on the table

QSB’s transaction-level strategy also raises a broader question: what happens as Bitcoin evolves toward quantum readiness at the protocol layer?

In earlier reporting, Google researchers estimated that if a sufficiently capable quantum computer emerged, it could potentially derive a Bitcoin private key nine to 12 minutes after its corresponding public key becomes visible—creating a window where an attacker might replace a pending transaction. The implication is that certain spending constructions may be more vulnerable than others once quantum capabilities arrive.

Levy introduced QSB with the notion that it does not require a network-wide upgrade, but still provides a safety net. StarkWare’s Eli Ben-Sasson indicated in comments to Cointelegraph that he expects a soft fork to eventually happen, describing QSB as a transitional protection while protocol-level safeguards are developed.

Bitcoin developers are separately weighing proposals that target specific spend paths. One example mentioned by StarkWare is BIP-360, a proposed soft fork that would introduce a Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type while removing Taproot’s quantum-vulnerable key-path spend. This kind of proposal differs from QSB by aiming to reduce exposure directly through changes to how certain outputs are constructed and spent, rather than relying on transaction-level workarounds.

Notably, QSB in this test is presented as a validation that one quantum-resistant approach can be executed without a protocol change. The next step for the community will be whether standardized relay and broader compatibility can be achieved, and how that compares with the security and complexity tradeoffs of protocol-level soft forks.

What to watch next

For now, the key uncertainty is scalability and integration: whether future QSB tests can lower compute cost, and whether changes to Bitcoin relay standards—or eventual soft fork designs like BIP-360—will reduce the friction that currently makes these transactions nonstandard. Readers should also look for more mainnet demonstrations that clarify how reliably the method can be used across different mining and submission workflows.